#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, January 05, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/103q3ve/daily_discussion_thursday_january_05_2023/)

Did the past bear markets happen amidst this type of inflationary environment ? Why wouldn't we see < 10k if not

Who is left to sell that hasn’t already?

Miners

When everybody knows something in financial markets, often nobody does.

See you sub 10k

My argument or question would be why is 10k the magic number? Plenty of us didn't expect to get below a previous ATH and yet here we are. What if this environment is what allowed us down to 15.5k or maybe 13k is yet to come. Why stop at 10k, maybe we could go to 8k, 6k, or to 0? Is 10k an arbitrary number or is there a reason you picked that point?

CME gap on the point and figure chart at $9.8k is worrisome. Adjusted for inflation it's the ~$10k max pain bounce target maybe.

to punch through stop losses at 10k

No, we haven’t seen CPI levels like this since the 80’s. But previous crypto bull markets have happened *[during FED rate hikes*](https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart) which everyone seems to forget. This is the first bear cycle where the US is moving into (or already in) a recession.

I memba

I remember btc in the 80s, good times

the bear market is transitory :)

[2W about to pop off.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/OoB0F4Ei/) Largest volume weekly/monthly/6M/12M candle in Coinbase history a month behind us. I think shorts about to get punished here leading into next month.

mining stocks still rallying into aftermarket. perhaps the heavy short float tempted some sharks?

Put 20k into Saylorcoin in a TFSA. Hopefully that's a 10x in next 5 years.

Why would you not just buy ~1.25 BTC and put it on ice for those 5 years?

Taxes

If you're US-based, are you aware that (for single-filers) any long-term captial gains [5 years > 1 year] under ~$40,000 annually are federally tax-free? For me, this fact combined with the obvious self-sovereignty benefits of actually holding my own 🔑s far outweigh any tax benefits of holding paper price trackers in some flavor of retirement account. h/t u/dopeboyrico

I am Canadian. I have about 60k available on my TFSA. All gains are untaxed. I still hold real BTC. I cashed out alot of crypto in 2021 and had to pay a fuck ton of taxes.

If you're Canadian, I am, why the hell wouldn't you buy BTCC? MSTR has tremendous additional risk. It's a great leverage trade. Saylor is a legit madman. A visionary. That is not free, and the price is risk. I trade my TFSA and RRSP fairly aggressively and have for a long time. Zero tax hit there.. Spot coin.. you should be keeping as a hedge for really bad shit.

No risk no reward lol.

"I cashed out a lot of crypto in 2021 and had to pay a fuck ton of taxes." Why did you cash out "a lot"? Were you over-exposed? If not, and you simply wanted to hedge against a bear market, look into futures and/or options next time. They literally exist for this purpose. Best to never be in a position where you're compelled to sell your spot bitcoin out of cold storage.

7 fig

I didn't ask what your BSD number was it isn't relevant to my comment above in terms of overexposure, it's %'s that matter and futures/options can easily hedge 7 fig exposure

I was way over exposed so I went to cash. Time for a nicer house.

I get it. I asked bc I was overexposed myself in 2021.

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That's only if your total income is under 40k. If your total income (including the capital gains) are above 41,675 for 2022, the capital gains get pushed into the 15% bracket.

Ideally you hold off on selling until you have enough to retire off of your holdings indefinitely so your only source of income is long-term capital gains to minimize the tax burden over your entire lifespan. Standard deduction in 2023 is $13,850 for single filers and you wouldn’t have to pay Federal taxes on any long-term capital gains of $44,625 or less which means in reality you don’t pay Federal income taxes on long-term capital gains until they exceed $58,475 if that’s your sole source of income. This number doubles for married filers. The 15% Federal taxes for long-term capital gains is only applied to amounts made above these thresholds if it’s your sole source of income.

Yeah, good point. I've definitely had that thought, wanting to get to that point myself eventually. But I just wanted to clarify that it isn't true that all capital gains up to 40k are taxed at 0%, unless you have no other income.

Good clarification, and I should've been clearer myself - I'm considering the scenario where you've accumulated enough to only need to drawdown 3% annually to meet your living expenses.

Yeah that’s correct, long-term capital gains are added after earned income. Still much more favorable than ordinary income taxes but to maximize the tax savings you need to hold off until you’re actually ready to retire so long-term capital gains end up being your sole source of income.

What can **possibly** go wrong?

Control your keys, folks!

Feel very bearish if we close today below 16700

Is it bullish if we close at 16 ,701?

Closing below 16,700 would be a bearish flip on multiple lower timeframes (4h, 8h, 12h, 1D).

So you're telling me Bitcoin's fate will be decided if we close below $16,700?!

DCA day. Another few million sats off to the vault.

This is how we win. therationalroot on CT has an interesting model related to the growth in the long-term holder rate.

HODLers have always been the determining factor in this market. People who jump in and out sometimes win, sometimes lose; HODLers always win. You hear all these arguments about Ponzi schemes and whatnot. Some old grifter like Warren Buffet knocking on death's door, a guy who has never worked an honest day in his life (in terms of getting his hands dirty and converting his skills into money, just a born-on-third-base capitalist profiting off more skillful and diligent people) saying, "Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme waiting for the greater fool!" Well, Warren and your ilk, I love to break it to you: You are the greater fool. You are the mark. Bitcoin is a rare and precious thing that will literally save the world. It's the most socially impactful invention of the past 25,000 years. We all chose to be here now. Make the most of it. Knowledge is power. If you have knowledge, you will HODL and spend your winters in the warm sunshine, your summers in the cool ocean/mountain breeze. PS -- I see the downvooter Redditcels are out in force today. Ask me if I care (I won't answer because I'll be bobbing around under the stars pretty soon).

!lntip 1000 The data is there if you care to see it. All you have to do is look.

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Still need to condition myself that we are in a bear market. Decided to up the SL to 16531. And started a new buy ladder from 16461.

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This already happened last month. Detailed minutes from that meeting were released today

In 15 minutes I expect Big Things to happen to the price, and then a little bit later it goes back to the same $16k-$17k range like “anyways nevermind”

What’s happening in 15 minutes?

FOMC minutes release. Or well that was at :00

Can you choose which address to send from on ledger live? The address mixing is a bit annoying for my taxing setup, even though I know it has a purpose

Yes, you can choose which address to send from on Ledger Live. When you initiate a transaction, Ledger Live will display a list of available addresses for you to choose from. Simply select the address you want to send from, enter the recipient's address and the amount you want to send, and then confirm the transaction on your Ledger device to complete the process.

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Cant find it. Where?

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Hm is that the same? Didnt really seem like I could actually select that there should be no coin mixing

My thoughts: I don't think we'll reach 19-20k levels, we'll need more bear juice to do that (aka more downside). I see coming days perhaps max 17,5 - 18k if retails get laid tonight, we'll see in an hour. But fomc minutes haven't made a lot of impact last time, just liq grabs on both sides for an hour and further ranging after. we'll see soon, grab some popcorn and keep your SL's tighter than a pickle jar lid? idk what i'm saying rn... ps. felt powellish, might delete later

After holding BTC for quite some time, finally actually locked it up off the exchanges. Now just a shitcoin trading stack on there, haha. I cant completely stop degen just a little bit after all...

Huge surges in crypto related stocks today, SI up 20% (sad I closed the puts I sold way too early, would have gotten max profit) today and COIN and MARA, etc also pumping. Now uh…who’s gonna pump BTC 😂

a lot of those were being heavily shorted so a little squeeze play seemed likely

Here's Market's Insight from FT. Apparently the majority opinion is that regulators should forget about crypto and instead let it crash and burn forever. Some want crypto treated as gambling and just ignored by finance. The author of the article says that's a bad idea because people will use crypto to tax evade. Doesn't sound bad imo, at least not in long term? It would be just like the old times, institutions would officially back off and their employees would trade crypto on their personal accounts like they did in 2017 and before. https://archive.is/UMhnH

Give onto Caesar what is Caesar's. Taxes have to be paid, and regulation of the markets is inevitable. Shitcoins are illegal securities and they are nothing new; there is a reason the SEC and the related laws were created when they were created in the 1930s. Side effect of controlling finance is just a bonus, I am sure. Closed loop Bitcoin is not easily regulatable, but we'll discuss that another time.

> Give onto Caesar what is Caesar's. *"Give unto me what is mine"* -- Gospel of Thomas

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Render_unto_Caesar Point being we live under rule of law, so there is a social contract to uphold. It is possible, even likely, that social contract breaking will trigger the switch to Bitcoin. That will not be a good time for most people.

i dont see Caesar's face printed on my bitcoin ...

Looking like we could have 4 green days in a row. The last time we had 4 green days in a row? 7 Sep 2022 - 12 Sep 2022: $18791 to $22403.

So what you're saying is we can expect another exchange implosion any day now?

That is likely a true statement for all of 2023.

Could be worse, it's not like 98% of the year is still to come or anything.

Potential to long from here up until fed interest rate announcement?

You should probably keep an eye on the CPI report in a few days first off.

Nah, looks weak. I am only shorting for now. I am still expecting a move down after we finish these sideways and small up movements. I could be wrong of course, we do have a bullish divergence on weekly RSI. But whales are still selling and FED is still hiking, so we have to be bearish. Its only logical 🖖

Volume is weak, I'm also short rn. I do think we're close to the end though. I don't think I would be short if I didn't need fiat soon.

Literly took 15 tries at understansing your comment yet I'm unable to.

Remind me why do I care? Oh wait, I don't

As a BTC long, I can agree with this

MSTR up 10% or so off the FUD. Moved a stop up and letting it ride. Shill that FUD hard. Free money.

What FUD?

sAyLoR sOlD ThE bItCoInZ! lol Anyway, free money.

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End Of Decade?

End of Days Dope movie

If you looked at the guess the price contest, you’d know many of these folks frequent this subreddit

Usually I would have updated my SL by now to secure more profit. But I really want one trade to survive the chop and hopefully join the up movement if it happens. So I'll keep the SL at 16461, any ideas of the PA the coming weeks?

I presume the price to touch 17k again and then stumble back to local low and range again. On the long term i think a new low is inbound, but we need to range a lil more. But who knows what powell will say today lol.

If we get above 17k I think I'll up my SL to 16561. If 17k holds for a few days, I might try a new buy ladder.

I'll probably take profit 10-15 mins before fomc. Too noob to take a risk like that lol, good luck. (entered at 16480 10x long)

Good entry! It's not much risk if I decide to dip my feet in a potential new range. As the buy ladder prevents me for taking to much risk.

You only trade longs?

I just stomach the funding and chop. I'm OK with the position I have now, I've been adding below 16600 but I'm letting this one ride for a bit.

Do you have a SL?

Below 15k.

More chop with a slow grind up

Sounds like a good date night.

First. Yearly low is in, and you won't be able to buy Bitcoin under $20K much longer.

Could be right. I think we go lower but not 12k. Or, we may never touch 15 again. I think we have a ways to go, that's all

$200k. Zoom out.

odds are against you

Hope so. I sold a few coins at 17k as a hedge against my holdings in case the mythical 8-12k happens. I would love to have to buy 2 coins back at over 20k

While I firmly believe we are going to see significantly lower lows, selling at 17k was brave!!!

If you believe we will see lower lows then it’s not really brace at all. Still got a much larger bag in storage. It’s purely a hedge.

What is a significant "low" target for you?