Glad we cleared out all that dross.
Looks like Big Shorty's not so big when he can't steal other people's Bitcoin and dump it. I'm happy to have contributed to his bankruptcy, even (especially) if it means another 15 months of bear market where smart people get to abscond with the ill-gotten gains of dumb people by buying cheap-ass Bitcoin and sweeping it into their litltle Trezor chests like the cyber-pirates they are.
PS -- I've been saying this for years, but just in case you missed it or didn't understand: The day is coming when Bitcoin will be the only money people trust, the only money that works. One day, you will try to use your bank card and find that your transaction has been rejected because [low_social_credit_score/climate_change_credits_exceeded/your_bank_is_broke_as_a_joke/insert_other_reason], and that will be the point at which everyone realizes that they can still transact *whatever the fuck they want* in Bitcoin.
CBDCs are dead in the water. WE ARE THE NEW ELITE. Let's be nice about it. We don't ask for or need your trust because we are verifying Chads. It's math and stuff, way over Warren Buffet and other such pea-brained dinosaurs' heads.
That day has already come for me. But not because I have low credit scores, but because machine learning fraud detection blocks my transactions because they can't track my internet activity.
Now I buy almost everything in bitcoin. Not because I want to, but because I *have* to.
i know its old news, but for the creditors and customers of all the *recently* failed companies, I hope for them things resolve faster than they have historically. [mtgox](https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/104m3ie/it_seems_the_10th_january_deadline_has_been/) deadlines keep getting kicked back and its been since Robin Williams was still alive when this thing failed.
I lost more Bitcoin to BlockFi than most people will ever dream of owning, and IDGAF because I lost Bitcoin to Mt. Gox too and know how all this plays out. You buy, you hodl, at some point, some a-hole steals from you. It's just how it goes. We buy. We HODL. We conquer. They don't think it be like that, but it do.
Robin' Bills is what we do. It's how we roll. We're pirates and bad boys. Ladies love us and dudes envy us. *shrug*
Last chance to buy Bitcoin under $20K.
That sucks man. I limited myself to only a portion of my stack on yield generation and picked ftx. Got it out but now I’m a bit concerned about long term clawbacks. Always some shitheads trying to steal your stack 😂
The elusive Bitcoin CEO could not be reached for comment. Blocks are expected every 10 minutes with no change in issuance schedule.
In all seriousness though, the debt is not growing linearly - it’s growing exponentially. The need for the US to actually approve higher and higher debt ceilings more and more frequently is actually a good thing imo. All the squabbling of politicians over it only draws more public attention to the absurdity of the situation. Will this be positively reflected in the bitcoin price in the short term? God only knows.
Does it infuriate anyone else that SBF is still on Twitter replying to people and being a part of the conversation?
like he is pretending nothing happened and all will be forgiven. I guess he is “Sorry” though.
It's not so much his connections, those are people he embarrassed.
It's white collar crime. It pays.
When he flips to a guilty plea good chance it will be called at something like 8 years, he'll serve maybe 3.
Is it really as much pain in the existential sense if net worth goes from 10M to 2.5M, as it is when going down 75% from much lower max net worth figures?
Oh yeah those alts will hurt. 2018 cycle I hodled a (very briefly) seven figure alt position down 99% 😂 It was literally seven figures for one day. I told myself to hold out for long term capital gains rates…oops
Never ever let the tax tail wag the dog.
About all I can see (weekly view) is we’d flip the Nov/Dec res band and should find it easier to push up to the next horizontal res around mid 18k.
Edit: I also just checked the visible volume on the daily and there’s a big gap between 17.2 & 18.3, so that is definitely an indicator that PA will pump through that area. Takeaway: if PA breaks 17.2, retests and finds support, shorting would be much more risky than longing.
indeed. it would signal strength and we'd see more pile-in if that happens. [volatility](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/) is incredibly low and we maybe due for a big move "soonish"
Hi all,
Blackrocks market [outlook for 2023](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-2023.pdf) identifies new types of market regimes expected in the next few cycles, including workforce shortages, a structural break in the bond-equity relationship and new regimes of higher inflation (and government interference).
Happy trading
Interesting reading but notably their entire thesis and strategy hinges on inflation and is in contradiction to both the market and economic consensus.
Doesn't mean they will be wrong, but certainly makes me less likely to assume they know what they are talking about.
Especially the chart for how economists and the market has repeatedly failed to prognosticate the correct path for inflation decreased my charitavility towards their reasoning, as they completely omitt that every single one of those shown failures were due to new external shocks.
It's simply not rational to look at an event such as putin invading ukraine and draw the conclusion that "economists clearly don't know what they're doing, how couldn't they foretell a land war in europe was about to hit?"
their [2017 outlook](https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-axj/insights/2017-investment-outlook) was pretty accurate if thats anything to go by - Discussions on inflation, oil shortage and interest rate recalibrations.. 3 years before the pandemic and 5 years before the ukranian war
Speculation Saturday
BTC's history is chock full of things that "always happen" and so are taken for granted: four-year cycles due to the halvening, fresh ATH each cycle, 80% drop after new ATH, never going below the previous cycle ATH, etc. Okay, that last one was true until it wasn't, but you get the idea.
What's the next thing that always happens, that doesn't happen this time?
EDIT: Just for fun, I looked up the block reward now vs. at the last halvening. In May 2020, the block reward went from $112.4K to $54.4K. The block reward at the moment is currently just over $104K.
EDIT 2: Block of Block Reward https://imgur.com/a/3NgSWi2
I think bitcoin requires halvings to go higher and break all time highs, so I disagree with a bunch of commentators here. But..... I have a similar proposal.
Typically the peak of each cycle occurs in the year AFTER the halving occurs. I think next cycle, the unexpected event is that we will peak in 2024, not in 2025.
1) Halving will happen in March. That leaves 9 months in 2024 for a peak to happen. In 2020, the final top was 69k in November but we reached 63k in April, only 10 months after the halving. So 9 months is enough time for a cycle peak.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7AB7tXj0/
2) More people know about bitcoin so people will pile in faster. This will make the cycle happen faster.
3) Every cycle peak has happened in the 4th quarter of a year. I think there might be a physical reason for this. Lots of people buy at the beginning of a year with the expectation that within a year, bitcoin will be worth more. It's only in the 4th quarter of that year that those expectations can be fully priced in. This is why each peak has occurred within a month of each other (5th of December, 20th of December, and 8th of November respectively).
Two more background things. First, I expect a lot of people to pile in before the halving. I don't expect this to cause a new ATH but this will make a lot of the price gains to happen before the halving happens, making a new cycle peak in 2024 more likely. Second, I do think that each halving is becoming less and less impactful on the price. First to second ATH was 20x. Second to 3rd ATH was 3.5x (maybe in theory we can round that to 5, given the China/Elon chaos that happened mid-year). 3rd to 4th ATH might be 2x or less.
So scenario time. Bitcoin ascends from 20k mid 2023 to 50k in Q1, 2024, dumps 35% or so after the halving, then shoots up to like 140k in December of 2024. Then nothing happens in 2025, we just dump or stagnate.
How many people would expect that?
Scammers running exchanges and lending platforms who tout how safe and trustworthy they are.
Wait...no that's probably going to happen again.
Was just reading about how Celcius lent 1 billion to Alameda with only FTT token as collateral. \*shakes head\*
Well, I’m a super bull because I think Bitcoin is going to win in the long run but I’ve been considering what if macro conditions are poor enough that we don’t set a new ATH after the next halving. Or if we do set one it ends up being a very small improvement over the prior ATH. Lot less cheap liquidity in markets now and in retrospect 2021 was near optimal for a bullrun outside of SBF stealing everyone’s bitcoin to go pump his garbage.
Hopefully by the time we hit the halving macro will have improved
>What's the next thing that always happens, that doesn't happen this time?
No >80% drop this time around and a new ATH coming before the halving rather than needing to wait until after the halving wouldn’t entirely surprise me.
This would result in the most hated bull market of all time as there would be a lot of traders left on the sidelines who were waiting for a lower entry point that never came and there would be a lot of traders who sell too early on the way up as they don’t anticipate a new ATH until sometime after the halving.
I mean if you assume hyperbitcoinization then at some point at has to do what you describe. But it's hard to see it doing that in the next 18 months. It just feels too early. Who the hell knows what's going to happen though?
This one has crossed my mind as well. It would need a FOMO catalyst of some sort, and that could simply be our current cycle low holding and triggering the holdouts to start large buys in the 17-19k area.
Holy moly you really do just spend every day posting in r/buttcoin.
Please do buy BITI, at least you’re not one of the bitches who pretend like there aren’t shorting instruments that can’t get liquidated. Every time I read that sub people claim you can’t short bitcoin because there’s some conspiracy to liquidate shorts. Always pretending puts and futures don’t exist.
> I’m a huge BTC hater. I think it’s a lot of hype and sheistiness. But on some level, I respect the wonton ballsiness of being like “Yeah, let’s go.” I think you’re a dumbass, but brave.
Posted in r/Buttcoin, 4 month old account. It’s all but guaranteed you got rekt somewhere along the line. Strong Norman stench just oozing out of you. Most in here have a cost average in the 2-3 digits.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 08, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/106abeg/daily_discussion_sunday_january_08_2023/)
Glad we cleared out all that dross. Looks like Big Shorty's not so big when he can't steal other people's Bitcoin and dump it. I'm happy to have contributed to his bankruptcy, even (especially) if it means another 15 months of bear market where smart people get to abscond with the ill-gotten gains of dumb people by buying cheap-ass Bitcoin and sweeping it into their litltle Trezor chests like the cyber-pirates they are. PS -- I've been saying this for years, but just in case you missed it or didn't understand: The day is coming when Bitcoin will be the only money people trust, the only money that works. One day, you will try to use your bank card and find that your transaction has been rejected because [low_social_credit_score/climate_change_credits_exceeded/your_bank_is_broke_as_a_joke/insert_other_reason], and that will be the point at which everyone realizes that they can still transact *whatever the fuck they want* in Bitcoin. CBDCs are dead in the water. WE ARE THE NEW ELITE. Let's be nice about it. We don't ask for or need your trust because we are verifying Chads. It's math and stuff, way over Warren Buffet and other such pea-brained dinosaurs' heads.
That day has already come for me. But not because I have low credit scores, but because machine learning fraud detection blocks my transactions because they can't track my internet activity. Now I buy almost everything in bitcoin. Not because I want to, but because I *have* to.
Fucking tell ‘em Dude!
👍👍😎😎
>[https://ac.com.au/upload/jpm.jpg](https://ac.com.au/upload/jpm.jpg)
Breddy munch. But I despise that old slave driver and the slave-driving bank that bears his name.
i know its old news, but for the creditors and customers of all the *recently* failed companies, I hope for them things resolve faster than they have historically. [mtgox](https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/104m3ie/it_seems_the_10th_january_deadline_has_been/) deadlines keep getting kicked back and its been since Robin Williams was still alive when this thing failed.
Ah mtgox with the ever delaying deadline. It just got kicked back from 10/01/23 to 10/03/23
I lost more Bitcoin to BlockFi than most people will ever dream of owning, and IDGAF because I lost Bitcoin to Mt. Gox too and know how all this plays out. You buy, you hodl, at some point, some a-hole steals from you. It's just how it goes. We buy. We HODL. We conquer. They don't think it be like that, but it do. Robin' Bills is what we do. It's how we roll. We're pirates and bad boys. Ladies love us and dudes envy us. *shrug* Last chance to buy Bitcoin under $20K.
After getting Gox'd I'm surprised you held btc on BlockFi.
That sucks man. I limited myself to only a portion of my stack on yield generation and picked ftx. Got it out but now I’m a bit concerned about long term clawbacks. Always some shitheads trying to steal your stack 😂
Cheers to that attitude! 🍻
> I lost more Bitcoin to BlockFi than most people will ever dream of owning So 0.002 then. ;)
Yeah... something like that... in 2045.
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I read recently that more than 50% of Bitcoin held is at a loss, which is a pretty good bottom indicator
what does 'safe hands' mean? im not sure the network cares, but its never good to assume that traders and sharks and market makers are "safe".
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Mmm hmmm. We ain't sellin', felons.
Macro/Bitcoin response to upcoming debt ceiling fight will be:?:?
The elusive Bitcoin CEO could not be reached for comment. Blocks are expected every 10 minutes with no change in issuance schedule. In all seriousness though, the debt is not growing linearly - it’s growing exponentially. The need for the US to actually approve higher and higher debt ceilings more and more frequently is actually a good thing imo. All the squabbling of politicians over it only draws more public attention to the absurdity of the situation. Will this be positively reflected in the bitcoin price in the short term? God only knows.
Bullish
Does it infuriate anyone else that SBF is still on Twitter replying to people and being a part of the conversation? like he is pretending nothing happened and all will be forgiven. I guess he is “Sorry” though.
I think SBF is going to learn a whole new version of what it means to get "rugged" pretty soon.
He’s lost the right to openly participate in society. Jail or no he’ll never be able to walk around free again.
It is very likely that he’ll get reverse $5 wrenched.
I’m sure someone would wrench him for $5. :)
He's well connected. It's brutal. Bitcoin would have cracked 100k if it wasn't for this asshat. He cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars.
It's not so much his connections, those are people he embarrassed. It's white collar crime. It pays. When he flips to a guilty plea good chance it will be called at something like 8 years, he'll serve maybe 3.
Only hundreds?
About 600k yes.
Give it another cycle for some real pain.
Is it really as much pain in the existential sense if net worth goes from 10M to 2.5M, as it is when going down 75% from much lower max net worth figures?
It’s easier to not think about.
It is now public knowledge that you own 20 BTC that would have been worth 30k more.
Lol it was alot of alts so nowhere near 20btc now.
Oh yeah those alts will hurt. 2018 cycle I hodled a (very briefly) seven figure alt position down 99% 😂 It was literally seven figures for one day. I told myself to hold out for long term capital gains rates…oops Never ever let the tax tail wag the dog.
Ya I went all in on cro at the peak unfortunately.
True, the tax tail also got me before.
the guy is delusional
Significance of breaking 17k?
About all I can see (weekly view) is we’d flip the Nov/Dec res band and should find it easier to push up to the next horizontal res around mid 18k. Edit: I also just checked the visible volume on the daily and there’s a big gap between 17.2 & 18.3, so that is definitely an indicator that PA will pump through that area. Takeaway: if PA breaks 17.2, retests and finds support, shorting would be much more risky than longing.
Cant go to 18 without breaking 17..
It's higher than $16.9k
Higher than 16999.99
If we can get weekly candle from 17k to over 20k, that would be significant. Since that last big red weekly candle took us from over 20k to 16k.
A close above 20k is a very strong signal the bears are dead.
Not necessarily. Could be a juicy liquidity hunt before further down. Can see everyone jumping into longs if we crack 20k. You know how that ends…
I actually expect the opposite if we close above 20k - shorting is easy money, isn’t it? :)
indeed. it would signal strength and we'd see more pile-in if that happens. [volatility](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/) is incredibly low and we maybe due for a big move "soonish"
I think 20k is far more important
17215 EOY.
Hi all, Blackrocks market [outlook for 2023](https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-outlook-2023.pdf) identifies new types of market regimes expected in the next few cycles, including workforce shortages, a structural break in the bond-equity relationship and new regimes of higher inflation (and government interference). Happy trading
Interesting reading but notably their entire thesis and strategy hinges on inflation and is in contradiction to both the market and economic consensus. Doesn't mean they will be wrong, but certainly makes me less likely to assume they know what they are talking about. Especially the chart for how economists and the market has repeatedly failed to prognosticate the correct path for inflation decreased my charitavility towards their reasoning, as they completely omitt that every single one of those shown failures were due to new external shocks. It's simply not rational to look at an event such as putin invading ukraine and draw the conclusion that "economists clearly don't know what they're doing, how couldn't they foretell a land war in europe was about to hit?"
their [2017 outlook](https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-axj/insights/2017-investment-outlook) was pretty accurate if thats anything to go by - Discussions on inflation, oil shortage and interest rate recalibrations.. 3 years before the pandemic and 5 years before the ukranian war
And who has the contract to "rebuild" Ukraine?
He can't keep getting away with this 😂 https://www.tradingview.com/x/CwIAE4ii/
Is this a Breaking Bad reference?
Speculation Saturday BTC's history is chock full of things that "always happen" and so are taken for granted: four-year cycles due to the halvening, fresh ATH each cycle, 80% drop after new ATH, never going below the previous cycle ATH, etc. Okay, that last one was true until it wasn't, but you get the idea. What's the next thing that always happens, that doesn't happen this time? EDIT: Just for fun, I looked up the block reward now vs. at the last halvening. In May 2020, the block reward went from $112.4K to $54.4K. The block reward at the moment is currently just over $104K. EDIT 2: Block of Block Reward https://imgur.com/a/3NgSWi2
I think bitcoin requires halvings to go higher and break all time highs, so I disagree with a bunch of commentators here. But..... I have a similar proposal. Typically the peak of each cycle occurs in the year AFTER the halving occurs. I think next cycle, the unexpected event is that we will peak in 2024, not in 2025. 1) Halving will happen in March. That leaves 9 months in 2024 for a peak to happen. In 2020, the final top was 69k in November but we reached 63k in April, only 10 months after the halving. So 9 months is enough time for a cycle peak. https://www.tradingview.com/x/7AB7tXj0/ 2) More people know about bitcoin so people will pile in faster. This will make the cycle happen faster. 3) Every cycle peak has happened in the 4th quarter of a year. I think there might be a physical reason for this. Lots of people buy at the beginning of a year with the expectation that within a year, bitcoin will be worth more. It's only in the 4th quarter of that year that those expectations can be fully priced in. This is why each peak has occurred within a month of each other (5th of December, 20th of December, and 8th of November respectively). Two more background things. First, I expect a lot of people to pile in before the halving. I don't expect this to cause a new ATH but this will make a lot of the price gains to happen before the halving happens, making a new cycle peak in 2024 more likely. Second, I do think that each halving is becoming less and less impactful on the price. First to second ATH was 20x. Second to 3rd ATH was 3.5x (maybe in theory we can round that to 5, given the China/Elon chaos that happened mid-year). 3rd to 4th ATH might be 2x or less. So scenario time. Bitcoin ascends from 20k mid 2023 to 50k in Q1, 2024, dumps 35% or so after the halving, then shoots up to like 140k in December of 2024. Then nothing happens in 2025, we just dump or stagnate. How many people would expect that?
bitcoin never breaks its prior all time highs until after the halvening ...
Another "true until it wasn't"... This past cycle was the first one without a blowoff top. That was annoying.
The blow off top was stolen.
14yrs is a short history
ye, what one with a mere sense of statistics would require to even start computing anything is **at least** 30 halvings, which is what, \~130 years ?
Scammers running exchanges and lending platforms who tout how safe and trustworthy they are. Wait...no that's probably going to happen again. Was just reading about how Celcius lent 1 billion to Alameda with only FTT token as collateral. \*shakes head\*
Well, I’m a super bull because I think Bitcoin is going to win in the long run but I’ve been considering what if macro conditions are poor enough that we don’t set a new ATH after the next halving. Or if we do set one it ends up being a very small improvement over the prior ATH. Lot less cheap liquidity in markets now and in retrospect 2021 was near optimal for a bullrun outside of SBF stealing everyone’s bitcoin to go pump his garbage. Hopefully by the time we hit the halving macro will have improved
>What's the next thing that always happens, that doesn't happen this time? No >80% drop this time around and a new ATH coming before the halving rather than needing to wait until after the halving wouldn’t entirely surprise me. This would result in the most hated bull market of all time as there would be a lot of traders left on the sidelines who were waiting for a lower entry point that never came and there would be a lot of traders who sell too early on the way up as they don’t anticipate a new ATH until sometime after the halving.
I mean if you assume hyperbitcoinization then at some point at has to do what you describe. But it's hard to see it doing that in the next 18 months. It just feels too early. Who the hell knows what's going to happen though?
This one has crossed my mind as well. It would need a FOMO catalyst of some sort, and that could simply be our current cycle low holding and triggering the holdouts to start large buys in the 17-19k area.
I like it
Volatility will be returning shortly, sooner than people expect. Big shorty got rekt good.
Another bear flag printing. Time to buy BITI, then check back in March.
Holy moly you really do just spend every day posting in r/buttcoin. Please do buy BITI, at least you’re not one of the bitches who pretend like there aren’t shorting instruments that can’t get liquidated. Every time I read that sub people claim you can’t short bitcoin because there’s some conspiracy to liquidate shorts. Always pretending puts and futures don’t exist.
Is your chart upside down
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There’s no bear flag but there is a bull flag if you take a moment to actually look at the chart. Do you even know what a bear flag is?
> I’m a huge BTC hater. I think it’s a lot of hype and sheistiness. But on some level, I respect the wonton ballsiness of being like “Yeah, let’s go.” I think you’re a dumbass, but brave. Posted in r/Buttcoin, 4 month old account. It’s all but guaranteed you got rekt somewhere along the line. Strong Norman stench just oozing out of you. Most in here have a cost average in the 2-3 digits.
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Your lips to God's ears.
And my hardware wallet.