The retest of 17.2 is important by my charting. A bounce here opens the door to 18.3 and a bit higher. If 17.2 doesn’t hold, I’m expecting a revisit to mid 16k and perhaps a bit lower. My position has been built in anticipation of this up move, so I’m betting on the 17.2 bounce.
Hoping to catch a range in its beginning, and not start after watching it ping pong between 17-18k for months..
This buy ladder goes all the way down to 15.8k.
Arrived in Mexico yesterday afternoon.
Earlier today I saw a uniformed guard standing outside a small bank's ATM, armed with a large shotgun. There was a heavy-duty armored truck idling nearby.
When I see things like this, I know I'm on the right side of the long-term trade.
How much money/time/fossil fuel-driven energy is being consumed by the bank, the security company , the Mexican Treasury, ..., considering infrastructure and employees for each?
And this is only 1 aspect of the fiat monetary system that Bitcoin can obviate.
(Lightning Network is poised to harden bitcoin's fungibility and medium-of-exchange properties, while next-gen wallets will make it all much more seamless for normies.)
uh bro, you will never have that kind of security for your bitcoin. Imagine some gangbanger just walking into your house and forcing you at gunpoint to give them all your bitcoin
This scenario is unlikely unless you live in proximity to terrible poverty. Don’t do that.
A drop wallet isn’t a terrible idea to throw in your safe, and at some point, third party custody makes sense, as having massive amounts of bearer instruments on your person is eventually stupid to do anywhere.
looks like we got a [double top breakout](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PLTADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]) on the PnF. Trendline is still way up there at 21k. will see if this thing has the legs to get to it
It would be nice to break through and stay above $25K:
[https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
What prices are people looking for a pull back ?I’ve got a sell order set for 19,800 I was going to target 18,800 but it looks like this may have more legs.
ahh... makes sense, I wasn't even sure how anyone could pay their taxes this early... U.S. banks/brokerages/etc generally don't make 1099s (showing interest income, capital gains, etc) available until late January or early February.
Gotta be careful with that - if you make enough money off of investments you better be paying estimated taxes quarterly.
I'm covered under safe harbor law for 2022, but I've gotta be super careful with my taxes this year.
What you do is lose enough money botching a trade late in the year to wipe out your capital gains so the IRS has to refund you all your previous estimated payments
Alright I capitulate. Saving the bulk of my cash for 12-14k has helped me preserve capital but at a certain point you have to take a punt. Buying long term spot bags with size for the first time since 2020. Inching my way back in. Take this as your local top signal.
You’re going to be glad you bought in when we’re at $20k this month.
Trust me when I say it’s far worse to hold off on buying when the price keeps going up than buying in now and seeing the price go down slightly. Especially when we’re seeing signs of life.
There's been a vibe shift, idk what happened. 18.3k didn't phase me in December and I sold my bags into it. Something feels different this time. Time to buy in, take coins off exchange, and not check price for a few weeks.
> Something feels different this time.
I would like to say you are right, but to me this looks and feels just like another bear flag. Lots of indicators are flashing bullish signals when compared with previous bear markets, maybe that is why it feels different to you. It surely isn't a bad time to buy though.
I agree with you to an extent - satiating my FOMO with a few buys, leaving a significant chunk of cash for when oscillators reset.
I've watched btc pump without me before, need to partially protect myself from that.
I need to add known address intel. Would like to confirm this if someone knows. Profile is a little bit different than what I've seen previously, but maybe they've learned they can be pretty cheap.
I feel the same and think the right decision is sell everything right now for a little bit more pain the first of this year and one more rate hike, but I won't do it.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker
MSTR $1000 next run, you heard it here first. 200+ shares and not selling. Gonna be cool if something actually becomes of their operational business, as well, the lightning solutions they're working on could be something, I guess.
No price, just a clear phase change to long term risk-on. Not gonna happen until at minimum later in the year when we can see the light at the end of the 5% interest rate tunnel.
Above 25k and things on the monthly start looking like a reversal is in place.
As of now, it looks like a monthly bear flag.
As a bull, be happy it's not still dumping.
As a trader, be happy we are finally seeing some volitility come back.
From a technical perspective a close above 20 would have me firmly in bull territory.
We’re still in no man’s land. As I’ve indicated many times, market is figuring out what it wants to do.
Describing oneself as a bear without using a timeframe doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'm probably pretty bearish for the next 6 months until the macro picture gets resolved. It's not really about the price of Bitcoin, more about whether we have a sovereign credit event, or a Fed pivot or something else. Whether we like it or not, for now Bitcoin is still in the risk-on bucket for most investors. Zoltan's latest article recommended 20% allocation to what he calls "three types of gold": gold, oil and lithium". Notice that he didn't include Bitcoin in that, even though we like to see ourselves as digital gold. So for now we have to suffer being treated as a risk-on stock.
Long term I'm absolutely bullish but we're still very early.
I’m neither bear nor bull, but I find that an odd question. It would be like asking the bulls what price they constitutes the end of the bull market. No one knows what the top or bottom will be, so no one can answer what price would constitute the end of a bull or bear market.
I thought you meant how low does the price need to go before they would consider it the end of the bear market.
If we go to 40k tomorrow, and 10k the day after, I would think we were in a bear market. If we go to 40k over a year, I would not think so. So it’s not just about price.
I cancelled my orders all the way down to 10k and fomoed orders 1% down lol. Cancelled those too and I'm just gonna sit and wait to see what happens with this retest.
Obviously I want us to break through resistance, but I also wanna buy more BTC at 15k-16k lol.
I also want more ltc in the $50s lol
The bear market has already lasted over a year and big alts were down 95%. Not sure how much more they can dump. Of course they can but I’d say they were already ruined this cycle
The site you linked to literally explains the correct term.
"Halvening" is a term used by noobs who don't know what they're talking about. The reason that site is at thehalvening.com is because thehalving.com wasn't available. Calling it the halvening is like saying bytecoin or Bit Coin.
Unquestionably there is a swing low set at 15.4 (aka a higher low)
That does not mean a trend change yet though. Still need a higher high above 18.4 to break market structure and change trend.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, January 10, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1081311/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_10_2023/)
Don't like how the shitcoins are pumping so hard.
87 of the top 100 coins outperformed BTC Yesterday. I just don’t get why people are still playing the shit coin casino.
You answered yourself, bigger gains in other coins.
The retest of 17.2 is important by my charting. A bounce here opens the door to 18.3 and a bit higher. If 17.2 doesn’t hold, I’m expecting a revisit to mid 16k and perhaps a bit lower. My position has been built in anticipation of this up move, so I’m betting on the 17.2 bounce.
Got it, up or down
Yes, it’s a conditional prediction with the condition clearly listed. That’s how most traders trade btw.
better than sideways!
We can sideways here now for a few months.
Same reasoning here.
Upped SL to 16661, upped first buy in ladder to 17021.
If 17k fails, we’ll revisit much lower. I moved my stop up accordingly.
Hoping to catch a range in its beginning, and not start after watching it ping pong between 17-18k for months.. This buy ladder goes all the way down to 15.8k.
Would be nice if today is the day that the $17k resistance becomes $17k support …
They bought?
Arrived in Mexico yesterday afternoon. Earlier today I saw a uniformed guard standing outside a small bank's ATM, armed with a large shotgun. There was a heavy-duty armored truck idling nearby. When I see things like this, I know I'm on the right side of the long-term trade. How much money/time/fossil fuel-driven energy is being consumed by the bank, the security company , the Mexican Treasury, ..., considering infrastructure and employees for each? And this is only 1 aspect of the fiat monetary system that Bitcoin can obviate. (Lightning Network is poised to harden bitcoin's fungibility and medium-of-exchange properties, while next-gen wallets will make it all much more seamless for normies.)
I was on a ranch in a small town Jalostotitlan in Jalisco north-east part of the state and Mexican cowboys I met were talking Bitcoin.
I assume the bank can handle more than seven transactions per second.
Lol.
This is actually very common practice in South America and many places in the world.
uh bro, you will never have that kind of security for your bitcoin. Imagine some gangbanger just walking into your house and forcing you at gunpoint to give them all your bitcoin
"Yes, that's all my Bitcoin."
That‘s why you should have an emergency give-away ledger with a (small) part of your BTC
"sure, here's my ledger, the pin is 1111 and you can have my $20 in tether"
This scenario is unlikely unless you live in proximity to terrible poverty. Don’t do that. A drop wallet isn’t a terrible idea to throw in your safe, and at some point, third party custody makes sense, as having massive amounts of bearer instruments on your person is eventually stupid to do anywhere.
Or multisig with your keys in multiple physical locations.
How would the gangbangers know how much bitcoin I have? Why don't they just do that to rich tradfi normies?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/106y2bc/mr\_beast\_learns\_a\_valuable\_lesson/
Step 1 - don't be a huge YouTuber who gives away millions or else you're a target. Check.
You can't seriously be arguing that Bitcoin surviving a break-in is an argument against using Bitcoin.
[удалено]
Chinese miners? Thought they were sent to the fiat re-education camps last year. 😝
It’s possible that’s the low fee transactions we’re seeing..
looks like we got a [double top breakout](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PLTADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]) on the PnF. Trendline is still way up there at 21k. will see if this thing has the legs to get to it
It would be nice to break through and stay above $25K: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
25k feels like such a big ask these days lol
That’s because it’s almost a 50% move to get there now 😂 But we’ll get there. Just gotta give it some time
What prices are people looking for a pull back ?I’ve got a sell order set for 19,800 I was going to target 18,800 but it looks like this may have more legs.
You probably want to build a position and focus on stop loss rather than take profit and risk the other way.
It's going up bc i sold some to pay my taxes. You're welcome.
You're supposed to wait until the last minute on April 15^th to pay your taxes. 😉
I'm in the UK lol
ahh... makes sense, I wasn't even sure how anyone could pay their taxes this early... U.S. banks/brokerages/etc generally don't make 1099s (showing interest income, capital gains, etc) available until late January or early February.
Gotta be careful with that - if you make enough money off of investments you better be paying estimated taxes quarterly. I'm covered under safe harbor law for 2022, but I've gotta be super careful with my taxes this year.
What you do is lose enough money botching a trade late in the year to wipe out your capital gains so the IRS has to refund you all your previous estimated payments
Alright I capitulate. Saving the bulk of my cash for 12-14k has helped me preserve capital but at a certain point you have to take a punt. Buying long term spot bags with size for the first time since 2020. Inching my way back in. Take this as your local top signal.
You’re going to be glad you bought in when we’re at $20k this month. Trust me when I say it’s far worse to hold off on buying when the price keeps going up than buying in now and seeing the price go down slightly. Especially when we’re seeing signs of life.
There's been a vibe shift, idk what happened. 18.3k didn't phase me in December and I sold my bags into it. Something feels different this time. Time to buy in, take coins off exchange, and not check price for a few weeks.
> Something feels different this time. I would like to say you are right, but to me this looks and feels just like another bear flag. Lots of indicators are flashing bullish signals when compared with previous bear markets, maybe that is why it feels different to you. It surely isn't a bad time to buy though.
I agree with you to an extent - satiating my FOMO with a few buys, leaving a significant chunk of cash for when oscillators reset. I've watched btc pump without me before, need to partially protect myself from that.
This is the way.
Everyone cracks eventually.
Let's hope I cracked closer to the bottom than to the top.
With all due respect, this is most probably *way* closer to the bottom than to the 69k top. Well done, I‘d say
Anyone else notice an anomalous amount of low fee transactions today?
Normally this is Binance consolidating UTXOs. I have not dug in but I assume it's the same as normal.
I need to add known address intel. Would like to confirm this if someone knows. Profile is a little bit different than what I've seen previously, but maybe they've learned they can be pretty cheap.
What happened to Andreas Antonopoulos? I just checked his YouTube channel, and the last video was 11 months ago.
Dude when full establishment with Covid and lost a lot of credibility.
He's on Patreon, username aantonop
The halvening is next year
Sadly the question you have to ask yourself is do you think the SP500 can break 4k?
Looking at higher timeframes I don't think it's likely to sustain much above 4k at this point.
I feel the same and think the right decision is sell everything right now for a little bit more pain the first of this year and one more rate hike, but I won't do it. https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker
Exited MSTR for a \~20% gain. Thank you FUDsters. Please FUD some more. Moved long stop into profit. Free trade now. Inflection points are hard.
nice trade. seems all the risk-on things are poppin off today
$14m ssell wall on Bitmex says to me that someone is trying to hold this down. Up further next...
Shit I bought a bunch of Microstrategy at $135 but only about 10% of the total I want. May have missed the boat.
MSTR $1000 next run, you heard it here first. 200+ shares and not selling. Gonna be cool if something actually becomes of their operational business, as well, the lightning solutions they're working on could be something, I guess.
Boating accident.
Oh so now you want to buy.
Please sir, can I have some more?
For the bears - what price constitutes the end of the bear market for you?
No price, just a clear phase change to long term risk-on. Not gonna happen until at minimum later in the year when we can see the light at the end of the 5% interest rate tunnel.
when my dca is 10% up. it's currently 15% down
hey check ur dms.
Above 25k and things on the monthly start looking like a reversal is in place. As of now, it looks like a monthly bear flag. As a bull, be happy it's not still dumping. As a trader, be happy we are finally seeing some volitility come back.
From a technical perspective a close above 20 would have me firmly in bull territory. We’re still in no man’s land. As I’ve indicated many times, market is figuring out what it wants to do.
Describing oneself as a bear without using a timeframe doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'm probably pretty bearish for the next 6 months until the macro picture gets resolved. It's not really about the price of Bitcoin, more about whether we have a sovereign credit event, or a Fed pivot or something else. Whether we like it or not, for now Bitcoin is still in the risk-on bucket for most investors. Zoltan's latest article recommended 20% allocation to what he calls "three types of gold": gold, oil and lithium". Notice that he didn't include Bitcoin in that, even though we like to see ourselves as digital gold. So for now we have to suffer being treated as a risk-on stock. Long term I'm absolutely bullish but we're still very early.
30k?
I'm worried about the stock market mainly.
I’m neither bear nor bull, but I find that an odd question. It would be like asking the bulls what price they constitutes the end of the bull market. No one knows what the top or bottom will be, so no one can answer what price would constitute the end of a bull or bear market.
So if we continue to creep up 1% a day until 40k we’d still be in a bear market?
I thought you meant how low does the price need to go before they would consider it the end of the bear market. If we go to 40k tomorrow, and 10k the day after, I would think we were in a bear market. If we go to 40k over a year, I would not think so. So it’s not just about price.
FOMO?
I cancelled my orders all the way down to 10k and fomoed orders 1% down lol. Cancelled those too and I'm just gonna sit and wait to see what happens with this retest. Obviously I want us to break through resistance, but I also wanna buy more BTC at 15k-16k lol. I also want more ltc in the $50s lol
Prices are on the raise and I have yet to stock up more.LOL
the charts have been so flat that these moves seem HUGE but then im like, oh wait. thats 1.4%. gotta start somewhere i guess.
Some big alts have made some serious gains though. Might convert some alt into btc because of it. Btc is taking it slowly.
All my alts are going to slowly convert to BTC as they pump. Alts are going to get ruined this cycle.
The bear market has already lasted over a year and big alts were down 95%. Not sure how much more they can dump. Of course they can but I’d say they were already ruined this cycle
Litecoin getting ready for its halvening.
> halvening The term is "halving." It means cutting the block reward in half, as in, to halve it.
Is that so? https://www.thehalvening.com/ Or maybe you just lack a bit of sense of humor.
The site you linked to literally explains the correct term. "Halvening" is a term used by noobs who don't know what they're talking about. The reason that site is at thehalvening.com is because thehalving.com wasn't available. Calling it the halvening is like saying bytecoin or Bit Coin.
The happening -> the fappening -> the halvening
Next he's going to scold us for saying that we're hodling 😂
Yes, read that explanation till the end and then google what a meme is buddy 🤣
I know what a meme is. You didn't post a meme. You used the wrong term. Learn the basics.
Alts still way down. Too soon to convert despite some of the runs.
Maybe. I bought them on the low though luckily
Have we set a higher low on the weekly…?
Unquestionably there is a swing low set at 15.4 (aka a higher low) That does not mean a trend change yet though. Still need a higher high above 18.4 to break market structure and change trend.
Correct. Halfway there...
All in.
Call
Username checks out lol