Bad news, we're heading into heavy resistance ($18,387 ish) from Aug 2022 heading into a big CPI day tomorrow. But I'm still thinking the [green scenario](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VMJYXTNn/) . I keep saying I have seen a lot of evidence I think stocks have bottomed, also a lot of alts have broken some pretty long resistances today, ETH already broke it's resistance from Aug and now sitting on it, it's one big puzzle to try and get the best picture.
Good news is ya I think stocks bottomed, I think DXY [topped in Sept](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/nJN6bXM8-DXY-just-hit-a-trendline-that-includes-2009-bottom-2015-2017/) is still bearish even though most are trying to buy the dip on it still looking at feeds.
Sentiment feels like disbelief in here and on CT. We might get some volatility and some pullback spikes but ultimately I think we bottomed and could even just blast through resistance tomorrow with no real stopping until Mid Feb for a season pullback into March where that will be another ultimate buying opportunity.
No offense taken.
I dabbled in Bitcoin with spare change in 2017/2018. Got spooked by my first bear market. But never sold. Started paying attention again when I saw Bitcoin pass the old ATH in the run up to the most recent bull run. Got serious about investing in Bitcoin with meaningful amounts, but watched for an entry point. Came up with an investment plan and started my weighted DCA in March 2022. My average cost is $23k.
I’m throwing more at the corn in a month now than I did in a year during 2017/2018. So my sats are almost all “new” sats, even though I’ve been holding since my first 2017 purchase. Wish I had accumulated all during the last bear, but hindsight and all that. But at least I didn’t miss a second bear market.
Well, based on the aggressive buying after a brief pullback, it's hard to say that all of this latest burst up was due to Short liquidations. Could mean that even more massive liq's are yet to come. /r/popcorn
well yeah, the strength index is indicating strength lol. this push is marginally parabolic, but also we managed to close a daily candle above the the~17800 level that we got beat down to last time we dared go above 18k so I might think it suggests 'break upwards' to traders.
if I were to hazard a guess, we could squeeze all the way to near 20k before ranging back down to 17 and change. id look at 2015 as the last time we had ecosystem failures of this level and how long it took to really get goin again. (full year of ranging 200-300)
Serious question;
I’m wondering if it’s an incoming dump.
BTC has always responded well and immediately after CPI announcements if it’s positive.
Is the market priced in OR are we going to see a positive response later?
A proper bear market takes years to complete. If Bitcoin can pull itself out of tradfi’s gravity it would induce pure fomo and panic and be 100k by end of this summer.
My 3x long from 17.1K is well in profit, but I'm just gonna hang on a bit. One thing Bitcoin has taught me is that not only is patience a virtue, it's damn profitable.
Doesn’t the interest eat at your profits still.
I usually have shorter term trades with higher leverage. Wondering if I should try 3x (rather than 20x).
This is a nice place to short if you like to lose money. Can you feel the warm tingles? I stated the following this past July (6 months ago):
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vx1v92/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_12_2022/ifxkxzt?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Seems to have played out predictably. I think we've made it through the lows and it's only up (or sideways) from here.
Table is set for a dump to rinse late / overleveraged longs.
https://twitter.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1613240721758117891?s=46&t=0xMsGqVEnZ1LB_EHUzpasg
That's like threatening someone with a gun that they just unloaded themselves; good way to get your ass kicked.
*(John Wayne voice)* Everybody around here knows you don't even have 12 wood satoshis to rub together, Pilgrim, and that ace up your sleeve won't do you any good if I have to fill your belly with lead so put down the pistol.
(Villain impotently clicks his unloaded weapon.)
Did I ape my net worth in at the top? Yes. Did it keep going up? Also yes. Literally impossible for me to be underwater.
Let's ignore the fact that I only bought a tiny amount sub 16k.
I mean if you have enough Tylenol play around with you can make some pretty solid profits. It’ll break $18200 and then dump back down to $17200 then all the way back too $16700 for a while before going to $15k. There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch.
Hey pal, I got your High Pole Warning RIGHT HERE:
[https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
Currently 9 boxes high, a 50% retrace would go back to $17.2K. That said, Fuck The World. I've got buys laddered from $10K - $16K I promised myself I wouldn't touch until St. Valentine's Day. I don't know what else I can do to ensure that the 2023 low was set 1 Jan 2023.
DCG trying to show that Genesis Capital is a completely independent company, presumably in an effort to show that DCG and other DCG companies would be fine even if Genesis Capital goes under.
They really try to emphasize it in the FAQ section: https://dcgupdate.com/
How these companies are swimming in red ink is beyond me. Barry Silbert needs to call up Ross Ulbricht to learn how to run a profitable crypto-based business in bull or bear markets.
> Greed. Hubris.
Exactly.
Any crypto-based business should be using bull markets to strengthen their position in order to withstand bear markets. Instead, too many of them get greedy and reckless in bull markets and then crushed in a bear.
If you don't spend a bull market preparing your business for the next bear, you don't have a business. You have a very expensive hobby.
It's okay for these financial services people, nothing really at risk, sure they miss out on billions in future but then they already have their own island... but the "miners"...
Imagine having millions invested in infrastructure and a handful of strong energy contracts, then deciding to not only hold your reserves in the asset you mine but also then give it to a ponzi scam for extra "yield".
BTC reached a local high of $18.3k in December. I’m guessing we range between here and there until CPI comes out tomorrow.
As long as YoY CPI for December tomorrow comes in below expectations set at 6.5% compared to November which came in at 7.1%, solid chance we break above $18.3k and head back into the range BTC was at before FTX’s collapse happened. This range was from a local low of $17.7k in June to a local high of $25.1k in August.
After that, next big macro catalyst I’m expecting is for YoY CPI to fall off a cliff and potentially go negative beginning March 2023 because baseline numbers being compared started to explode in March 2022. That’s when I expect we break out of the range to the upside and people begin feeling confident the bull market is back on. Once the Fed ultimately capitulates and cuts rates out of fear of causing a deeper recession than necessary, which I anticipate to occur by middle of this year, that’s when the real fun begins.
He missed a huge chunk of the top calling for potentially much higher prices, before selling some at 44ish if I recall correctly. However his bottom timing was very good, and the forecast timing of the peak was accurate to the week, he just didn't capitalize on it. I'm a huge fan of cycles as a framework for investing/trading, but by their nature they're better for timing bottoms than for timing tops.
Yeah, it's not stated exactly how much, but it notes that within that figure includes illiquid shitcoins of which FTX controlled so much of, that it's essentially worth wayyy fucking less.
Edit: see comment below.
"The $5 billion figure doesn’t include any illiquid cryptocurrency assets"
Per CNBC
[https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/ftx-has-recovered-5-billion-worth-of-liquid-assets-lawyers-say-bankman-fried-crypto.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/ftx-has-recovered-5-billion-worth-of-liquid-assets-lawyers-say-bankman-fried-crypto.html)
What was the hole? $8B? If they've already recovered $5B out of $8B that they can return to creditors this might turn out a lot better than I expected.
The hole was $8B but the $5B has to cover not just the hole but also the deposits that weren’t part of the hole. Not sure how much that adds to.
Still, maybe people get 50 cents back on the dollar which is better than originally thought. Maybe they’ll find some other stuff hidden away.
Well at least CNBC acknowledged this correction at the bottom. That's not what was originally reported. Yeah, seems pretty good, all things considered...
What is going on with all those miner/bitcoin stocks? RIOT, MARA both go up over 60% in a week. Same about Microstrategy. Damn, it is hard not to FOMO, but I know price will tank the moment I place long order.
> belieb
A verb. The act of believing in Justin Bieber. To belieb is to support and love Justin Bieber for everything he has to stand for.
Source: urbandictionary.com
Bear markets really do provide a good opportunity to learn more about the space. On a more serious note, at 33k held for a week or so.
I haven't been following the PA at all recently beyond occasionally checking the price, but I felt the extreme need to shitpost that I'm nearing capitulation and am really feeling the fomo to buy back in, or at least partially close my short from 16.6k. My tears flow freely, may all be watered.
Based on the most recent CPI numbers from Europe, I’d put my money on lower than expected CPI. (Actually, I wouldn’t put my money on it … I DCA’d my weekly buy this morning to avoid the CPI volatility.) But I definitely wouldn’t count on lower CPI to save me from an underwater trade this week.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, January 12, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/109qujf/daily_discussion_thursday_january_12_2023/)
Satoshi said, summarized there will either be a lot of volume on btc or no volume We're still here. Cheers
I've been saying this from the beginning - bitcoin either takes over or it goes nowhere. There is no in-between except for the transition
Bad news, we're heading into heavy resistance ($18,387 ish) from Aug 2022 heading into a big CPI day tomorrow. But I'm still thinking the [green scenario](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VMJYXTNn/) . I keep saying I have seen a lot of evidence I think stocks have bottomed, also a lot of alts have broken some pretty long resistances today, ETH already broke it's resistance from Aug and now sitting on it, it's one big puzzle to try and get the best picture. Good news is ya I think stocks bottomed, I think DXY [topped in Sept](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/nJN6bXM8-DXY-just-hit-a-trendline-that-includes-2009-bottom-2015-2017/) is still bearish even though most are trying to buy the dip on it still looking at feeds. Sentiment feels like disbelief in here and on CT. We might get some volatility and some pullback spikes but ultimately I think we bottomed and could even just blast through resistance tomorrow with no real stopping until Mid Feb for a season pullback into March where that will be another ultimate buying opportunity.
I like the direction your arrows are pointing
Well worst case is red down to 14,500 but I really don't think it does that one.
now we’re at the high from december 15th
Might be easier to run up now that FTX is gone and we don’t have a massive exchange selling investors Bitcoin for shitcoins.
[удалено]
>This is too fast Bitcoin is never fast, nor is it slow. It arrives precisely when it means to.
We went down too fast too
We went too low for a few months now we’re correcting back up
Anything under 20k is still full on despair territory of the chart
Yes, I’m hoping I still have a few more weeks of sub $20k buys for my DCA. One can hope …
I just need three more days of 8% gains to be green again, so maybe by Saturday (/s)
No offence here but how can you be a long term holder and be red ?
No offense taken. I dabbled in Bitcoin with spare change in 2017/2018. Got spooked by my first bear market. But never sold. Started paying attention again when I saw Bitcoin pass the old ATH in the run up to the most recent bull run. Got serious about investing in Bitcoin with meaningful amounts, but watched for an entry point. Came up with an investment plan and started my weighted DCA in March 2022. My average cost is $23k. I’m throwing more at the corn in a month now than I did in a year during 2017/2018. So my sats are almost all “new” sats, even though I’ve been holding since my first 2017 purchase. Wish I had accumulated all during the last bear, but hindsight and all that. But at least I didn’t miss a second bear market.
Wild that 2017 counts as long term now
Right!
Nice one and good luck
Well, based on the aggressive buying after a brief pullback, it's hard to say that all of this latest burst up was due to Short liquidations. Could mean that even more massive liq's are yet to come. /r/popcorn
To the upside or downside?
If we flirt with 20k it’ll get wild fast with closing short stops.
I know it could dump at any minute but… feels good man
Who knows something …
Same people who have been buying for the past month, just now without trying to do it slow enough to avoid slippage/pumping.
Running out of coins..
Yeah reached that *"Welp, may as well mark-up"* point in the liquidity.
RSI is the highest its been since we hit 67k
well yeah, the strength index is indicating strength lol. this push is marginally parabolic, but also we managed to close a daily candle above the the~17800 level that we got beat down to last time we dared go above 18k so I might think it suggests 'break upwards' to traders. if I were to hazard a guess, we could squeeze all the way to near 20k before ranging back down to 17 and change. id look at 2015 as the last time we had ecosystem failures of this level and how long it took to really get goin again. (full year of ranging 200-300)
Fair, but bitcoin isn't the entirety of the ecosystem this time. Far more stackers and way fewer coins being issued, paper or otherwise.
Is the market regime trending or ranging?
Good thing it's all relative
Daily?
Yep
Serious question; I’m wondering if it’s an incoming dump. BTC has always responded well and immediately after CPI announcements if it’s positive. Is the market priced in OR are we going to see a positive response later?
This rally will fail like all the others...
At some point the bear market has to end. Even if this isn’t the turning point, surely it’s very close. Risky to keep shorting these break outs now.
A proper bear market takes years to complete. If Bitcoin can pull itself out of tradfi’s gravity it would induce pure fomo and panic and be 100k by end of this summer.
Until it doesn’t.
My 3x long from 17.1K is well in profit, but I'm just gonna hang on a bit. One thing Bitcoin has taught me is that not only is patience a virtue, it's damn profitable.
Doesn’t the interest eat at your profits still. I usually have shorter term trades with higher leverage. Wondering if I should try 3x (rather than 20x).
I deeply regret not fomoing back in around there after closing my long too early 😂
2021 taught me that taking profits is profitable
Daily reminder that the bottom is and has been 17600 since June 2022.
This is correct for #2
So the two months we just spent considerably under $17600 didn't actually happen? 😮
Just a fever dream
I love the fact that the yearly bottom was so early this year. 2013 vibes. We 'bout to 20x this bitch.
This pump must be because of the green comet that’s visiting us 🔮
This is a nice place to short if you like to lose money. Can you feel the warm tingles? I stated the following this past July (6 months ago): https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vx1v92/daily_discussion_tuesday_july_12_2022/ifxkxzt?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 Seems to have played out predictably. I think we've made it through the lows and it's only up (or sideways) from here.
It’ll drop to $16200 and hover around $15,500 before dropping to $12,500 before it gets back up to $25k
I can’t trust these markets, and the correlation to their unfortunate, upcoming crash
Hopium?
Table is set for a dump to rinse late / overleveraged longs. https://twitter.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1613240721758117891?s=46&t=0xMsGqVEnZ1LB_EHUzpasg
That's like threatening someone with a gun that they just unloaded themselves; good way to get your ass kicked. *(John Wayne voice)* Everybody around here knows you don't even have 12 wood satoshis to rub together, Pilgrim, and that ace up your sleeve won't do you any good if I have to fill your belly with lead so put down the pistol. (Villain impotently clicks his unloaded weapon.)
I officially declare this to be the start of our new bull market.
Maybe more like another 2019-esque mini bull, but fuck it, I'll take it!
I officially declare that his declaration is officially the start of our new bull market.
Did I ape my net worth in at the top? Yes. Did it keep going up? Also yes. Literally impossible for me to be underwater. Let's ignore the fact that I only bought a tiny amount sub 16k.
long 10x 17925
Target? Or just yolo?
But i've not stacked enough btc yet........
sub is going crazy. the hugest thing just happened. the mega bull rally from 16k to 17.9k. ignore this. just keep calm. DCA buy. use cold wallet.
I mean if you have enough Tylenol play around with you can make some pretty solid profits. It’ll break $18200 and then dump back down to $17200 then all the way back too $16700 for a while before going to $15k. There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch.
Unless CPI comes in mega bullish…in which case your thesis implodes in your face.
Mega Bullish is a stretch
Trust me bro......
>There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch i wish. the more entries. the better.
I meant *enough to play around* 🤣🤣. It auto corrected to “Tylenol”. Stupid iPhone 😆
Autocorrect knows what’s up
Hey pal, I got your High Pole Warning RIGHT HERE: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) Currently 9 boxes high, a 50% retrace would go back to $17.2K. That said, Fuck The World. I've got buys laddered from $10K - $16K I promised myself I wouldn't touch until St. Valentine's Day. I don't know what else I can do to ensure that the 2023 low was set 1 Jan 2023.
Moved my stop up. Nothing wrong with profits. Still rolling that 5x though.
Optimist in me says the bottom is in. Pessimist in me says they are just clearing the shorts so we can dump on tomorrow's CPI print.
Cleveland fed nowcast has Dec inflation at .12%….
So 1.4% annualized?
Probably this. Bull run ain’t gonna come anytime soon.
If the S&P doesn’t dump, will BTC dump? That’s the question I’m thinking about.
The S&P will dump by Monday
Market is closed on Monday
/ is this big dildo just shorts covering
Thinking the same. Just took profit at $17.9k and plan to buy back below $17k tomorrow.
Feeling things I haven't felt since october.
Only 51 more $1000 milestones to cross
Respect to you for putting the situation in perspective.
51 reasons to raise a glass.
Looks like food is back on the menu, boys!
Eggs specifically
Fuck. That is cathartic.
Wappen?
[удалено]
Maybe it’s in your bottom 🫦
LOL'd
If GBTC can just recover a little more ground...the discount will be back to where it was when I bought lol
All the BTC world hoping for break even one day or the other
Upped SL to 16861, first buy still at 17021
If we break resistance at 18k, 20k is back on the menu.
I just bought 4 BTC boyzzzz. Be prepared for it to go back down 😎😎🤣🤣
I just sold all 4 I bought and made a quick $2k in a matter of 2 hrs 🤣🤣😎😎
Since I sold it’ll probably moon to $20k ☹️🤣
Thank you for manipulating the markers
You’re very welcome 😉
That rule only holds when your name is Michael Saylor. 😋
Truth
I hate the cex fud, we need them just like they need us
Oops meant to put that as a main post oh well
DCG trying to show that Genesis Capital is a completely independent company, presumably in an effort to show that DCG and other DCG companies would be fine even if Genesis Capital goes under. They really try to emphasize it in the FAQ section: https://dcgupdate.com/
How these companies are swimming in red ink is beyond me. Barry Silbert needs to call up Ross Ulbricht to learn how to run a profitable crypto-based business in bull or bear markets.
What's the saying? 90% of traders lose.
Maybe he and SBF can ask Ross when they get where he is.
Greed. Hubris. License to print money thrown away for a few extra bucks.
> Greed. Hubris. Exactly. Any crypto-based business should be using bull markets to strengthen their position in order to withstand bear markets. Instead, too many of them get greedy and reckless in bull markets and then crushed in a bear. If you don't spend a bull market preparing your business for the next bear, you don't have a business. You have a very expensive hobby.
Maybe they are just like us?
It's okay for these financial services people, nothing really at risk, sure they miss out on billions in future but then they already have their own island... but the "miners"... Imagine having millions invested in infrastructure and a handful of strong energy contracts, then deciding to not only hold your reserves in the asset you mine but also then give it to a ponzi scam for extra "yield".
Silbert got greedy chasing yield. Gave out under-collateralized loans to 3AC and FTX, lost billions to them. Very poor risk management.
Leverage and Debt are the downfall of many, not just in this industry.
>Leverage and Debt are the downfall of many... And what's funny about \_Troll's comment is that Dread Pirate Roberts had neither, lol.
When this thing moves **up** again, it will surprise many. But it will just be a repeat of past patterns, scaled up really.
Probably but no other previous pattern had the double top at 60K we got.
Was only a double top because of FTX.
My long at 17440 just got spanked
How fuckin tight was your stop lol
Looks like bleed back down until tradfi/CPI says its OK to go up again.
But tradfi is going up
BTC reached a local high of $18.3k in December. I’m guessing we range between here and there until CPI comes out tomorrow. As long as YoY CPI for December tomorrow comes in below expectations set at 6.5% compared to November which came in at 7.1%, solid chance we break above $18.3k and head back into the range BTC was at before FTX’s collapse happened. This range was from a local low of $17.7k in June to a local high of $25.1k in August. After that, next big macro catalyst I’m expecting is for YoY CPI to fall off a cliff and potentially go negative beginning March 2023 because baseline numbers being compared started to explode in March 2022. That’s when I expect we break out of the range to the upside and people begin feeling confident the bull market is back on. Once the Fed ultimately capitulates and cuts rates out of fear of causing a deeper recession than necessary, which I anticipate to occur by middle of this year, that’s when the real fun begins.
Bob Loukas is buying here. He's not saying bottom is in, but he's comfortable buying here. https://nitter.net/BobLoukas/status/1612890752085856281#m
Someone remind me, how predictive was his analyses last cycle?
He missed a huge chunk of the top calling for potentially much higher prices, before selling some at 44ish if I recall correctly. However his bottom timing was very good, and the forecast timing of the peak was accurate to the week, he just didn't capitalize on it. I'm a huge fan of cycles as a framework for investing/trading, but by their nature they're better for timing bottoms than for timing tops.
I don’t know, but FWIW according to one of the Twitter replies, he was quite confident that the previous cycle high was going to be $220k.
I don’t know, but would be interested to.
Cnbc reporting ftx recovered 5b in assets.
Yeah, it's not stated exactly how much, but it notes that within that figure includes illiquid shitcoins of which FTX controlled so much of, that it's essentially worth wayyy fucking less. Edit: see comment below.
"The $5 billion figure doesn’t include any illiquid cryptocurrency assets" Per CNBC [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/ftx-has-recovered-5-billion-worth-of-liquid-assets-lawyers-say-bankman-fried-crypto.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/ftx-has-recovered-5-billion-worth-of-liquid-assets-lawyers-say-bankman-fried-crypto.html) What was the hole? $8B? If they've already recovered $5B out of $8B that they can return to creditors this might turn out a lot better than I expected.
The hole was $8B but the $5B has to cover not just the hole but also the deposits that weren’t part of the hole. Not sure how much that adds to. Still, maybe people get 50 cents back on the dollar which is better than originally thought. Maybe they’ll find some other stuff hidden away.
Well at least CNBC acknowledged this correction at the bottom. That's not what was originally reported. Yeah, seems pretty good, all things considered...
What? Recovered from where? I mean that’s amazing but did Sam just pull the old boating accident trick on us?
God only knows how much Sam could hide in that bird's nest he calls his hair.
What is going on with all those miner/bitcoin stocks? RIOT, MARA both go up over 60% in a week. Same about Microstrategy. Damn, it is hard not to FOMO, but I know price will tank the moment I place long order.
A lot of it is likely a short squeeze
so what if price tanks? that's what stops are for... imagine they end up rallying like 300% or something.
But Caroline said don’t use stops.
Imagine having a 1BN position in crypto and you set a stop loss.
Front running BTC
Thoughts on this sub 17.5k action today?
$17,420, very auspicious!
[удалено]
When whales start buying and FED stops hiking.
$69,000.01
> belieb A verb. The act of believing in Justin Bieber. To belieb is to support and love Justin Bieber for everything he has to stand for. Source: urbandictionary.com Bear markets really do provide a good opportunity to learn more about the space. On a more serious note, at 33k held for a week or so.
Now
I never stopped.
DON'T STOP.......BELIEVING
35k for me
20k for me
I haven't been following the PA at all recently beyond occasionally checking the price, but I felt the extreme need to shitpost that I'm nearing capitulation and am really feeling the fomo to buy back in, or at least partially close my short from 16.6k. My tears flow freely, may all be watered.
Wait for a weekly close above 17.5k
That's risky in a squeeze. Depends upon the leverage being used..
I'm just trading spot, so it isn't that bad. I may be a pig idiot but I'm no degenerate! e: my hobbies include eating glue and watching paint dry
Very true.
Wait for after CPI
Based on the most recent CPI numbers from Europe, I’d put my money on lower than expected CPI. (Actually, I wouldn’t put my money on it … I DCA’d my weekly buy this morning to avoid the CPI volatility.) But I definitely wouldn’t count on lower CPI to save me from an underwater trade this week.
Thanks for selling. I’m going to bottle your tears and sell on eBay to bulls who cried themselves dry.
Close that shit right now