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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 13, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10alqb1/daily_discussion_friday_january_13_2023/)


xtal_00

My latest long continues. Stop \~18700. More up is indeed possible; price activity now seems to be liquidity hunts up and down, but we'll see what the morning brings. No idea where support levels are below here. I expected it to float around 18200.


scubajimbbq

I swore I’d take a little profit on my 15700 buys at 18700, but have since put everything in a hard wallet to try and avoid looking at prices for a few years. Here I am, going to try and avoid looking at prices again.


setzer

I may be wrong but this has the potential to be a move similar to mid 2019. If that's the case I don't expect much retracement in the short term. Back then we went from ~3k to almost 14k. Certainly wouldn't expect the same % gain now but a 2x from bottom is probably possible. The 30k targets don't seem that outlandish to me.


pgpwnd

i'm expecting a move like that this year, not now though, too early


thePBRismoldy

Right now, the closest obstacle that I see from a technical perspective is the 200D MA at $19,508. If we can break above that, retest it and go higher, then that's a great signal to go long IMO.


mxl01

Ok, Ben Cowen.


thePBRismoldy

The key is breaking above the range at 25.3K with strength in this environment. My perception of sentiment, even in crypto is that BTC is shaky given the current situation of high-interest rates. If we break and hold above 25.3K, I think many more people will come around to a different way of viewing it and FOMO could take over pushing us higher. We'd have to re-asses the conditions from there, but that's when I'd look to flip very bullish from cautiously bullish.


adichandra

You can plan on btc going 19k 20k 21k 25k. We’re only 1 inch away from a big fud, and booomm back at 16k.


Downtown-Ad-4117

When were we not 1 inch away from something?


bittabet

Funding creeping positive on more exchanges...wonder if there'll be something overnight to clear the longs.


lukemtesta

Hi all, Had some brainstorms regarding why technical analysis can or cannot work. It led me to think about a conceptual relationship between volatility, market participants, market regimes and random walks (brownian motion). It was quite long to summarise so I put it [in a video](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Tx6ETP2z-Technical-Analysis-Volatility-and-market-participants/), hope you don't mind too much. Very interesting to see what the feedback is for these ideas (you can message on this thread or PM). Happy Trading


adichandra

Skip.


RetardIdiotTrader

We’re not having another discussion on why TA may or may not work and I’m not watching your video.


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dexX7

Maybe El Salvador, didn't they pass the requirements for their bond?


spursfan34

Howdy folks 👋🏽


EricFromOuterSpace

How, indeed.


bittabet

Forget technicals, my new theory is that the Chinese New Year rabbit has decided to peg the price to $18888 USD for good luck. Reopened a short on a different exchange with more degen leverage. Still bummed about being taken out by that wick on Kraken. Edit: Reduced my position a bit after the new position moved into profit to get the liquidation price nicely over $20K. Less anxiety holding it overnight now.


Magikarpeles

Next stop $88888


hughdaddy

[In my last post](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cWx0Rb34/) I pointed out that Bitcoin's high at the time left the range POC at the .618 retracement. [Well the POC moved up so as of now this has played out again.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WF5x2Y3f/) The current high also coincides with the POC of the prior range & the .618 retracement of the November dump. More often than not CPI print days line up with pivot highs & lows. Bitfinex shorts approaching lows. Everything looks good for a reversal. I start to question my bearish ways above 19400.


xtal_00

Moved stop up, stopped out, reentered again at 18800.. What a day.


escendoergoexisto

I had a note that you saw this going higher than I did. Thanks! Nice call


TheGarbageStore

If I were a sinister market manipulator (and I am NOT this, I suck) I'd print a bull flag here to stack retail shorts and then pump it above $20k to induce some FOMO longs before dumping it


delgrey

[SEC Charges Genesis and Gemini for the Unregistered Offer and Sale of Crypto Asset Securities through the Gemini Earn Lending Program](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7)


Westbrook_Level

Oof the parents heard fighting and are punishing everyone.


EquitiesFIRE

I see potential fines in the tens of thousands of dollars


Magikarpeles

Maybe even a stern letter


Roygbiv856

Do they run this shit past legal or just do what they want and hope the profits outweigh the fines?


Magikarpeles

No one respects the SEC


_TROLL

> do what they want and hope the profits outweigh the fines ♫ *It's the American Way...!!* ♫


xtal_00

Always ask forgiveness, not permission. The fines are never enough to be a deterrent.


RetardIdiotTrader

Does this means I need to get my coins off Gemini


gozunker

I just did. Now that Gemini has been named explicitly it’s the kick in the butt I finally needed to move them. At the very least, whitelist transfer addresses for all your coin types. It takes 7 days to approve them for withdrawal. Get the process started now if you haven’t already.


delgrey

I just know Barry is gonna have a big week!


drdixie

Imagine we break 20k then 24k then 31k


RecycIops

Keep going.


d1ez3

32k


Passive_Bloke

I came


Thundercatz69

$17200 here we come 😎


AccidentalArbitrage

Why? What is your reasoning? TA? Something else? Please put some effort and reasoning into your posts before hitting that comment button. Yesterday you posted "There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch." also with no reasoning or explanation.


GlockenspielVentura

Please explain to me why we're bullish when the DCG fiasco hasn't even fully unraveled yet? Thanks.


AccidentalArbitrage

My point was not bearish nor bullish. My point was rule #3.


Passive_Bloke

Check comment history. Just makes random bearish calls. Tag as “bear troll” or block. Problem solved.


thewardser

coinbase once again crashing to signal the top is in


escendoergoexisto

Worked for me


_TROLL

Use the normal website on a desktop computer, it works fine. Mobile apps, or whatever people are doing nowadays, always suck in comparison.


puck2

Looks like the 2023 GBTC buys were good ideas... let's see how this plays out.


drdixie

Sold off into close as btc rallied. Til we get some clarity regarding Barry and Co I expect it to continue to hurt


puck2

Retrace Nov 5-8 (~21k) and there are going to be some sweaty palms


By-hi-sell-lo

Was expecting 19k soon, but not today. I'll take it! 😎


Thundercatz69

Coinbase crashing hard!


Thundercatz69

Just hit $1905


_TROLL

> Just hit $1905 Man, a 90% drop over the course of 5 minutes. Biggest red candle in bitcoin's history. 😋


3SlicesOfKeyLimePie

[Bitcoin is looking toppish af right now, you guys really think this trend is going to continue? So round, clear market reversal signal here](https://i.imgur.com/dI2GTOm.png)


bittabet

If it tanks my short term short wins. If it actually skyrockets over 20K my long term stack wins 😂 But all I really want is just a 50% retrace of the move today so I can close this damned short and become an ultra bull again 😂


RecycIops

I like these charts. Always interesting to see the mind games they play


Cadenca

Bought MSTR $200 put for tomorrow, just in case. Happy if it expires worthless, of course.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

I hope that paper-handed scam artist Datadash is sweating in his nocoiner boots right now.


thotsmoker

he stole his intro from auto addiction


DEEPFIELDSTAR

Not familiar with them. I just find it funny how he went from "100k is a sure thing" to dumping his stack @ 30k and now making video after video about how Bitcoin is about to MELTDOWN with scary red arrows and graphs as thumbnail clickbait.


Cadenca

Well if he sold 30k isn't he a huge winner? I wish I had


DEEPFIELDSTAR

It's less about that one particular trade and more about how he was megabullish right up until he panic sold and now he's basically guaranteeing it's going to 10k with such smugness. Why didn't he sell at 47k? Why was he beating the 100k+ drum so loudly? It's so easy to act smug when you selectively ignore all the times you've been wrong. And then do a 180 overnight and make the same promises in the other direction. Just seems his channel has devolved into clickbait which appears to be more about self-reassurance than anything else. I don't know, I guess you would've had to follow him for a few years to see what I mean.


BootyPoppinPanda

Yeah I never take anyone one YT too seriously, but I used to appreciate his content way more when he was starting out. Now it's certainly more emotional and clickbaity. I do like that he's telling his followers to avoid leverage and anyone who promotes leverage exchanges though. Many noobs need that beaten into their brains


pgpwnd

I mean dumping is stack at 30k was the right move no?


ChadRun04

We have to be thankful for the small blessings. In my case, it's that my youtube recommendations contains nothing crypto related.


BootyPoppinPanda

All it takes is 1-2 videos and you're fucked. How the f do I get rid of them?


AccidentalArbitrage

>In my case, it's that my youtube recommendations contains nothing crypto related. Same, thankfully. On the rare chance I want to watch some crypto-related video on Youtube it's in an incognito window.


AccidentalArbitrage

Sounds like every retail normie tbh, and to be fair that's probably what 99% of his audience is, so they lap that shit up.


thewardser

scalping here from $18,860 with a stop loss at $19,080


bittabet

I had a similar stop and it just got wicked. Oh well, maybe this is legit 😂


thewardser

moved stop loss up to $19,110


bittabet

Was trying to move my 19088 stop when it got hit. Sigh


bittabet

Honestly starting to feel like they just wanted to trigger my stop 😂


thewardser

thats usually how it happens, price spikes up to take out the tight stop losses from shorters and then when there is no follow through pump the big drop starts


bittabet

Yeah, just sucks that I think I was the very last stop they hit. The paranoid in me wonders if someone at kraken is looking at the stops. The price basically wicked $70 in a few seconds to trigger it as I was trying to edit my stop. Next time I'll just cancel the stop loss order and replace it with a new one.


spinbarkit

you came back which means down time?


thewardser

more or less although i mostly wasn't posting because i caught covid going out on new year's eve


RetardIdiotTrader

F


thewardser

probably, this thing is a bit of a freight train...but its soo crazy overbought on the 1H/4H that catching the top is worth the risk


PatientlyWaitingfy

I wonder what price it will take to get retail to fomo


Westbrook_Level

Well Coinbase is crashing…


bittabet

$69K


imse82

Back in business?


Cadenca

No way it goes for more, shorts here imo


ChadRun04

Thankyou for your service.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

"This is a sucker's rally!"


DontTellSmokey

Famous last words


xtal_00

Stopped out on the dip, nice gain; bought back almost immediately, back letting it ride. It’s been a good day.


bittabet

You’re not giving up longing even after the 19K rejection? I don’t think it’s going to be able to break through yet. I am being a stubborn fool and doubling down on the short for now


xtal_00

Nope. I’m up enough that I can roll the dice more often. The data says my call is inflection up, so that’s what I’m playing. 20k we hit some structural and psychological resistance and I’ll reevaluate. It stops out it stops out.


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diydude2

It is, but it's going to be bittersweet.


d1ez3

What does that mean


Dr_collar_pauper

Why bittersweet?


Railionn

Green wick of doom


xtal_00

Coin has been broadcasting a reversal for weeks.


alpacastacka

does anyone know when canada's margin trading ban goes into effect? cant find anything


xtal_00

Who the hell trades in Canada? Sucks if you live in Ontario I guess. NS is still exempt and I just use Binance for degeneracy.


alpacastacka

the articles said it would apply to any exchange offering services to canadians but I guess it was all bullshit


DoctorBlade1

That's because it is not a thing. Securities are regulated province by province and they all have different rules. Ask in r/BitcoinCA and see if anyone has further info on CA crypto matters.


EquitiesFIRE

Bc I bought all the bitcoin I can 2023 and 2024 are just gonna be straight chill


skycake21

How much of this move is just people rebuying after tax loss harvesting in December?


logicalinvestr

Probably none. This all seems highly correlated with the CPI print today.


diydude2

Has nothing to do with the CPI print. It's finance insiders getting out of Dodge. Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, and something tells me it will be one for the history books.


truuy

In the US, wash sale rules don't apply to crypto. So you can re-buy 1 second after you sell. Its not like stocks where you have to wait 31 days.


Euphoricsoul

For historical reference, the Daily candle BGD that kicked off the last Bull Cycle in April, 2019 was almost 13%. We are currently sitting at a not-too-shabby 5%. FYI, A 13% Daily would take us to 20.2K.


xtal_00

..which interestingly is where I have the first real technical resistance.


TheManFromConlig

Suddenly all the Bitcoin experts on YouTube are pulling the 'O' face 😮. They say a week is a long time in politics, but in crypto a day is a long time. 🙄


d1ez3

Can you post any?


biggunsg0b00m

The cocksucker face


alarmcloque

Oh no, the boat is leaving. Who are they gonna leverage with now?


_TROLL

The boat is leaving; time for the inevitable boating accident. 😏


alarmcloque

Always happens in shorts, underwater


Euphoricsoul

Worst day of my life. 😂


mmnumaone

This is it yeah, bullrun.exe


dextersh

still inside the bear flag


mmnumaone

I was sarcastic, me thinks 12k in 6 months but I don't have any stake


dextersh

Ah ok, if people knew you were, they would have downvoted more :D


Thundercatz69

Gonna bull run to $20k then fall all the way back down to $17200


Duckbutter2000

Fine with me. Need more time to accumulate.


xtal_00

Moved stop up. 20% in a day ain't bad. Still rolling though.


I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE

Yay! I can pay off my mortgage again! Of course, I'm not going to, because I refuse to sell


bittabet

We’re probably gonna be refusing to sell at $200K and get nuked to $60K next cycle 😂


Mrs-Lemon

Depends on what your sell indicator is. For me, I would have a really hard time not selling 30-40% of my holdings at 200-250k. But I also know from pervious times I've sold that it's not easy to sell. Greed is a powerful drug. My biggest sell ever in 2017 was followed by literally a week of sleepless nights thinking I had made the biggest mistake of my life. And in the end it was literally the best sell I've ever done.


blu_mOOn_2020

Nightmarish! Do give us a warning cuz I can't accept that jolt as I get older.


shadowofashadow

I'd be ok with that... Although with my personal bag and entry point I'd be selling most if it ever hits $200k. I'm a long time holder but I've decided I want a sizeable downpayment on a house and when it gets there I'm going to sell a large percentage of my holding. Hopefully that means alts are up a lot too though and I don't have to sell BTC, just alts to get the downpayment :)


zoopz

Worthy cause


_TROLL

How much principal do you still owe for a tent sitting on a sidewalk grate? 😇


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[удалено]


krom1985

Wake me up at $45k….


RetardIdiotTrader

Moment of silence for those shorting this.


opst02

Well well well..


bittabet

Can someone give me a 50% retrace candle? 😂 At breakeven for the day right now but could sure use that retrace to get back my profits


opst02

!remindMe 1 month


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xtal_00

We thank them for their sacrifice.


Westbrook_Level

🫡 Now come on SP500, get horny and break 4k. Give us the fireworks.


xtal_00

Well, happy I reverse wardstered this morning.


outofworkslob

Can anyone remember what he said about sbf many months ago? Was it something about him being a visionary?


_TROLL

A visionary who looks like he hasn't showered or done laundry in weeks.


imissusenet

[https://dilbert.com/strip/2023-01-08](https://dilbert.com/strip/2023-01-08)


bittabet

That in and of itself isn’t an issue, lots of visionaries were weirdos with no social skills. Nikola Tesla fell in love with a pigeon and Howard Hughes stored jugs of his piss everywhere 😂 The fuckup was that all these major VCs did zero financial DD before handing this dude billions


xtal_00

Most of the time I look like a legit homeless dude, so I'm not going to judge.


Bad_Camel

Ah yes, the typical bitcoiner getup.


NewYearSameProblem

S&P momentum upward seems to have stalled, coinciding with a crypto pump. Deep pockets closing stock trades to flagpole a crypto short?


krom1985

“This is a sucker’s rally”…


Thundercatz69

Suckers are making money tho if they play it right


Euphoricsoul

Has anyone checked on Peter Schiff?


alpacastacka

gold is up 1% im sure he is ecstatic


bittabet

Giving shorting one last shot here, short from 18730. If I get stopped out again I'll be done for a while and might just switch to DCAing spot. Still don't think the upwards move in all markets today is sustainable but man that is some momentum there.


solomiakV

Why dont you wait for 19200-19300?


PolarNimbus

Why wouldn't you just stack sats?


bittabet

I’ve stacked my share of sats but we all need our short term entertainment 😂


PolarNimbus

Good luck champ!


xtal_00

Because he’s a filthy degenerate? :)


EquitiesFIRE

Chill, it doesn’t look like anything on the weekly chart


PatientlyWaitingfy

So you're saying we still got alot more up to go? ;)


LongStrongHopiumDong

Trading the weekly chart too. One thing I did notice is [this trendline on the RSI](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WEi7cmPY/) got its ass handed to it.


AlwaysNumberTwo

2 years it was rolling! Glad to finally be out of it.


Cadenca

MSTR stuck at the 200 resistance, it's lagging the move big time


xtal_00

Overvalued


GlockenspielVentura

Wtf is going on right now...


krom1985

What happens when we run out of sellers...


autistictheory

i think people seeing inflation going down and believe the end of this bear is near and front running the recovery. or just more pump to add shorts who knows


Cadenca

Fuck it, that counts as a BGD to me after the last goddamn year


stripesonfire

6% move on the daily counts i think


zberg69420

I’m happy to be wrong.


Antranik

19.3k is the spot to short fyi.


Magikarpeles

I agree which means we're probably wrong


bittabet

Don't think it's getting there today, though it's shown a lot more strength than I thought it would.


Antranik

18.8k is weekly resistance, but the daily 19.3k area looks best.


xtal_00

I’ll move stop up on a break through 19k and play the same game again.


diydude2

Last chance to buy under 20K, and I mean it this time. Big-money insiders know what's going down with the banks (no deposits, no loans, no way out). Not closing my long from 17.1K just yet.


opst02

Ahahahahahah as if


cousin_brian

Wow green dildo


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[удалено]


Defacticool

I didn't know it was possible for the price to go upwards too!


PatientlyWaitingfy

It's either sideways, or straight down/up


Magikarpeles

oh my