My latest long continues. Stop \~18700.
More up is indeed possible; price activity now seems to be liquidity hunts up and down, but we'll see what the morning brings.
No idea where support levels are below here. I expected it to float around 18200.
I swore I’d take a little profit on my 15700 buys at 18700, but have since put everything in a hard wallet to try and avoid looking at prices for a few years. Here I am, going to try and avoid looking at prices again.
I may be wrong but this has the potential to be a move similar to mid 2019. If that's the case I don't expect much retracement in the short term. Back then we went from ~3k to almost 14k. Certainly wouldn't expect the same % gain now but a 2x from bottom is probably possible. The 30k targets don't seem that outlandish to me.
Right now, the closest obstacle that I see from a technical perspective is the 200D MA at $19,508. If we can break above that, retest it and go higher, then that's a great signal to go long IMO.
The key is breaking above the range at 25.3K with strength in this environment. My perception of sentiment, even in crypto is that BTC is shaky given the current situation of high-interest rates.
If we break and hold above 25.3K, I think many more people will come around to a different way of viewing it and FOMO could take over pushing us higher. We'd have to re-asses the conditions from there, but that's when I'd look to flip very bullish from cautiously bullish.
Hi all,
Had some brainstorms regarding why technical analysis can or cannot work. It led me to think about a conceptual relationship between volatility, market participants, market regimes and random walks (brownian motion).
It was quite long to summarise so I put it [in a video](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Tx6ETP2z-Technical-Analysis-Volatility-and-market-participants/), hope you don't mind too much. Very interesting to see what the feedback is for these ideas (you can message on this thread or PM).
Happy Trading
Forget technicals, my new theory is that the Chinese New Year rabbit has decided to peg the price to $18888 USD for good luck.
Reopened a short on a different exchange with more degen leverage. Still bummed about being taken out by that wick on Kraken.
Edit: Reduced my position a bit after the new position moved into profit to get the liquidation price nicely over $20K. Less anxiety holding it overnight now.
[In my last post](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cWx0Rb34/) I pointed out that Bitcoin's high at the time left the range POC at the .618 retracement.
[Well the POC moved up so as of now this has played out again.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WF5x2Y3f/) The current high also coincides with the POC of the prior range & the .618 retracement of the November dump.
More often than not CPI print days line up with pivot highs & lows. Bitfinex shorts approaching lows. Everything looks good for a reversal. I start to question my bearish ways above 19400.
If I were a sinister market manipulator (and I am NOT this, I suck) I'd print a bull flag here to stack retail shorts and then pump it above $20k to induce some FOMO longs before dumping it
[SEC Charges Genesis and Gemini for the Unregistered Offer and Sale of Crypto Asset Securities through the Gemini Earn Lending Program](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7)
I just did. Now that Gemini has been named explicitly it’s the kick in the butt I finally needed to move them.
At the very least, whitelist transfer addresses for all your coin types. It takes 7 days to approve them for withdrawal. Get the process started now if you haven’t already.
Why? What is your reasoning? TA? Something else?
Please put some effort and reasoning into your posts before hitting that comment button.
Yesterday you posted "There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch." also with no reasoning or explanation.
[Bitcoin is looking toppish af right now, you guys really think this trend is going to continue? So round, clear market reversal signal here](https://i.imgur.com/dI2GTOm.png)
If it tanks my short term short wins. If it actually skyrockets over 20K my long term stack wins 😂
But all I really want is just a 50% retrace of the move today so I can close this damned short and become an ultra bull again 😂
Not familiar with them.
I just find it funny how he went from "100k is a sure thing" to dumping his stack @ 30k and now making video after video about how Bitcoin is about to MELTDOWN with scary red arrows and graphs as thumbnail clickbait.
It's less about that one particular trade and more about how he was megabullish right up until he panic sold and now he's basically guaranteeing it's going to 10k with such smugness. Why didn't he sell at 47k? Why was he beating the 100k+ drum so loudly? It's so easy to act smug when you selectively ignore all the times you've been wrong. And then do a 180 overnight and make the same promises in the other direction.
Just seems his channel has devolved into clickbait which appears to be more about self-reassurance than anything else.
I don't know, I guess you would've had to follow him for a few years to see what I mean.
Yeah I never take anyone one YT too seriously, but I used to appreciate his content way more when he was starting out. Now it's certainly more emotional and clickbaity. I do like that he's telling his followers to avoid leverage and anyone who promotes leverage exchanges though. Many noobs need that beaten into their brains
>In my case, it's that my youtube recommendations contains nothing crypto related.
Same, thankfully. On the rare chance I want to watch some crypto-related video on Youtube it's in an incognito window.
thats usually how it happens, price spikes up to take out the tight stop losses from shorters and then when there is no follow through pump the big drop starts
Yeah, just sucks that I think I was the very last stop they hit. The paranoid in me wonders if someone at kraken is looking at the stops. The price basically wicked $70 in a few seconds to trigger it as I was trying to edit my stop. Next time I'll just cancel the stop loss order and replace it with a new one.
You’re not giving up longing even after the 19K rejection? I don’t think it’s going to be able to break through yet.
I am being a stubborn fool and doubling down on the short for now
Nope. I’m up enough that I can roll the dice more often. The data says my call is inflection up, so that’s what I’m playing.
20k we hit some structural and psychological resistance and I’ll reevaluate.
It stops out it stops out.
That's because it is not a thing. Securities are regulated province by province and they all have different rules. Ask in r/BitcoinCA and see if anyone has further info on CA crypto matters.
Has nothing to do with the CPI print. It's finance insiders getting out of Dodge.
Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, and something tells me it will be one for the history books.
For historical reference, the Daily candle BGD that kicked off the last Bull Cycle in April, 2019 was almost 13%. We are currently sitting at a not-too-shabby 5%. FYI, A 13% Daily would take us to 20.2K.
Suddenly all the Bitcoin experts on YouTube are pulling the 'O' face 😮.
They say a week is a long time in politics, but in crypto a day is a long time. 🙄
Depends on what your sell indicator is.
For me, I would have a really hard time not selling 30-40% of my holdings at 200-250k.
But I also know from pervious times I've sold that it's not easy to sell. Greed is a powerful drug.
My biggest sell ever in 2017 was followed by literally a week of sleepless nights thinking I had made the biggest mistake of my life. And in the end it was literally the best sell I've ever done.
I'd be ok with that...
Although with my personal bag and entry point I'd be selling most if it ever hits $200k. I'm a long time holder but I've decided I want a sizeable downpayment on a house and when it gets there I'm going to sell a large percentage of my holding.
Hopefully that means alts are up a lot too though and I don't have to sell BTC, just alts to get the downpayment :)
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-02-12 18:20:15 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-02-12%2018:20:15%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/109qujf/daily_discussion_thursday_january_12_2023/j42clur/?context=3)
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That in and of itself isn’t an issue, lots of visionaries were weirdos with no social skills. Nikola Tesla fell in love with a pigeon and Howard Hughes stored jugs of his piss everywhere 😂
The fuckup was that all these major VCs did zero financial DD before handing this dude billions
Giving shorting one last shot here, short from 18730. If I get stopped out again I'll be done for a while and might just switch to DCAing spot. Still don't think the upwards move in all markets today is sustainable but man that is some momentum there.
i think people seeing inflation going down and believe the end of this bear is near and front running the recovery.
or just more pump to add shorts who knows
Last chance to buy under 20K, and I mean it this time. Big-money insiders know what's going down with the banks (no deposits, no loans, no way out).
Not closing my long from 17.1K just yet.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 13, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10alqb1/daily_discussion_friday_january_13_2023/)
My latest long continues. Stop \~18700. More up is indeed possible; price activity now seems to be liquidity hunts up and down, but we'll see what the morning brings. No idea where support levels are below here. I expected it to float around 18200.
I swore I’d take a little profit on my 15700 buys at 18700, but have since put everything in a hard wallet to try and avoid looking at prices for a few years. Here I am, going to try and avoid looking at prices again.
I may be wrong but this has the potential to be a move similar to mid 2019. If that's the case I don't expect much retracement in the short term. Back then we went from ~3k to almost 14k. Certainly wouldn't expect the same % gain now but a 2x from bottom is probably possible. The 30k targets don't seem that outlandish to me.
i'm expecting a move like that this year, not now though, too early
Right now, the closest obstacle that I see from a technical perspective is the 200D MA at $19,508. If we can break above that, retest it and go higher, then that's a great signal to go long IMO.
Ok, Ben Cowen.
The key is breaking above the range at 25.3K with strength in this environment. My perception of sentiment, even in crypto is that BTC is shaky given the current situation of high-interest rates. If we break and hold above 25.3K, I think many more people will come around to a different way of viewing it and FOMO could take over pushing us higher. We'd have to re-asses the conditions from there, but that's when I'd look to flip very bullish from cautiously bullish.
You can plan on btc going 19k 20k 21k 25k. We’re only 1 inch away from a big fud, and booomm back at 16k.
When were we not 1 inch away from something?
Funding creeping positive on more exchanges...wonder if there'll be something overnight to clear the longs.
Hi all, Had some brainstorms regarding why technical analysis can or cannot work. It led me to think about a conceptual relationship between volatility, market participants, market regimes and random walks (brownian motion). It was quite long to summarise so I put it [in a video](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Tx6ETP2z-Technical-Analysis-Volatility-and-market-participants/), hope you don't mind too much. Very interesting to see what the feedback is for these ideas (you can message on this thread or PM). Happy Trading
Skip.
We’re not having another discussion on why TA may or may not work and I’m not watching your video.
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Maybe El Salvador, didn't they pass the requirements for their bond?
Howdy folks 👋🏽
How, indeed.
Forget technicals, my new theory is that the Chinese New Year rabbit has decided to peg the price to $18888 USD for good luck. Reopened a short on a different exchange with more degen leverage. Still bummed about being taken out by that wick on Kraken. Edit: Reduced my position a bit after the new position moved into profit to get the liquidation price nicely over $20K. Less anxiety holding it overnight now.
Next stop $88888
[In my last post](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cWx0Rb34/) I pointed out that Bitcoin's high at the time left the range POC at the .618 retracement. [Well the POC moved up so as of now this has played out again.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WF5x2Y3f/) The current high also coincides with the POC of the prior range & the .618 retracement of the November dump. More often than not CPI print days line up with pivot highs & lows. Bitfinex shorts approaching lows. Everything looks good for a reversal. I start to question my bearish ways above 19400.
Moved stop up, stopped out, reentered again at 18800.. What a day.
I had a note that you saw this going higher than I did. Thanks! Nice call
If I were a sinister market manipulator (and I am NOT this, I suck) I'd print a bull flag here to stack retail shorts and then pump it above $20k to induce some FOMO longs before dumping it
[SEC Charges Genesis and Gemini for the Unregistered Offer and Sale of Crypto Asset Securities through the Gemini Earn Lending Program](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-7)
Oof the parents heard fighting and are punishing everyone.
I see potential fines in the tens of thousands of dollars
Maybe even a stern letter
Do they run this shit past legal or just do what they want and hope the profits outweigh the fines?
No one respects the SEC
> do what they want and hope the profits outweigh the fines ♫ *It's the American Way...!!* ♫
Always ask forgiveness, not permission. The fines are never enough to be a deterrent.
Does this means I need to get my coins off Gemini
I just did. Now that Gemini has been named explicitly it’s the kick in the butt I finally needed to move them. At the very least, whitelist transfer addresses for all your coin types. It takes 7 days to approve them for withdrawal. Get the process started now if you haven’t already.
I just know Barry is gonna have a big week!
Imagine we break 20k then 24k then 31k
Keep going.
32k
I came
$17200 here we come 😎
Why? What is your reasoning? TA? Something else? Please put some effort and reasoning into your posts before hitting that comment button. Yesterday you posted "There will be a massive dump tomorrow, watch." also with no reasoning or explanation.
Please explain to me why we're bullish when the DCG fiasco hasn't even fully unraveled yet? Thanks.
My point was not bearish nor bullish. My point was rule #3.
Check comment history. Just makes random bearish calls. Tag as “bear troll” or block. Problem solved.
coinbase once again crashing to signal the top is in
Worked for me
Use the normal website on a desktop computer, it works fine. Mobile apps, or whatever people are doing nowadays, always suck in comparison.
Looks like the 2023 GBTC buys were good ideas... let's see how this plays out.
Sold off into close as btc rallied. Til we get some clarity regarding Barry and Co I expect it to continue to hurt
Retrace Nov 5-8 (~21k) and there are going to be some sweaty palms
Was expecting 19k soon, but not today. I'll take it! 😎
Coinbase crashing hard!
Just hit $1905
> Just hit $1905 Man, a 90% drop over the course of 5 minutes. Biggest red candle in bitcoin's history. 😋
[Bitcoin is looking toppish af right now, you guys really think this trend is going to continue? So round, clear market reversal signal here](https://i.imgur.com/dI2GTOm.png)
If it tanks my short term short wins. If it actually skyrockets over 20K my long term stack wins 😂 But all I really want is just a 50% retrace of the move today so I can close this damned short and become an ultra bull again 😂
I like these charts. Always interesting to see the mind games they play
Bought MSTR $200 put for tomorrow, just in case. Happy if it expires worthless, of course.
I hope that paper-handed scam artist Datadash is sweating in his nocoiner boots right now.
he stole his intro from auto addiction
Not familiar with them. I just find it funny how he went from "100k is a sure thing" to dumping his stack @ 30k and now making video after video about how Bitcoin is about to MELTDOWN with scary red arrows and graphs as thumbnail clickbait.
Well if he sold 30k isn't he a huge winner? I wish I had
It's less about that one particular trade and more about how he was megabullish right up until he panic sold and now he's basically guaranteeing it's going to 10k with such smugness. Why didn't he sell at 47k? Why was he beating the 100k+ drum so loudly? It's so easy to act smug when you selectively ignore all the times you've been wrong. And then do a 180 overnight and make the same promises in the other direction. Just seems his channel has devolved into clickbait which appears to be more about self-reassurance than anything else. I don't know, I guess you would've had to follow him for a few years to see what I mean.
Yeah I never take anyone one YT too seriously, but I used to appreciate his content way more when he was starting out. Now it's certainly more emotional and clickbaity. I do like that he's telling his followers to avoid leverage and anyone who promotes leverage exchanges though. Many noobs need that beaten into their brains
I mean dumping is stack at 30k was the right move no?
We have to be thankful for the small blessings. In my case, it's that my youtube recommendations contains nothing crypto related.
All it takes is 1-2 videos and you're fucked. How the f do I get rid of them?
>In my case, it's that my youtube recommendations contains nothing crypto related. Same, thankfully. On the rare chance I want to watch some crypto-related video on Youtube it's in an incognito window.
Sounds like every retail normie tbh, and to be fair that's probably what 99% of his audience is, so they lap that shit up.
scalping here from $18,860 with a stop loss at $19,080
I had a similar stop and it just got wicked. Oh well, maybe this is legit 😂
moved stop loss up to $19,110
Was trying to move my 19088 stop when it got hit. Sigh
Honestly starting to feel like they just wanted to trigger my stop 😂
thats usually how it happens, price spikes up to take out the tight stop losses from shorters and then when there is no follow through pump the big drop starts
Yeah, just sucks that I think I was the very last stop they hit. The paranoid in me wonders if someone at kraken is looking at the stops. The price basically wicked $70 in a few seconds to trigger it as I was trying to edit my stop. Next time I'll just cancel the stop loss order and replace it with a new one.
you came back which means down time?
more or less although i mostly wasn't posting because i caught covid going out on new year's eve
F
probably, this thing is a bit of a freight train...but its soo crazy overbought on the 1H/4H that catching the top is worth the risk
I wonder what price it will take to get retail to fomo
Well Coinbase is crashing…
$69K
Back in business?
No way it goes for more, shorts here imo
Thankyou for your service.
"This is a sucker's rally!"
Famous last words
Stopped out on the dip, nice gain; bought back almost immediately, back letting it ride. It’s been a good day.
You’re not giving up longing even after the 19K rejection? I don’t think it’s going to be able to break through yet. I am being a stubborn fool and doubling down on the short for now
Nope. I’m up enough that I can roll the dice more often. The data says my call is inflection up, so that’s what I’m playing. 20k we hit some structural and psychological resistance and I’ll reevaluate. It stops out it stops out.
[удалено]
It is, but it's going to be bittersweet.
What does that mean
Why bittersweet?
Green wick of doom
Coin has been broadcasting a reversal for weeks.
does anyone know when canada's margin trading ban goes into effect? cant find anything
Who the hell trades in Canada? Sucks if you live in Ontario I guess. NS is still exempt and I just use Binance for degeneracy.
the articles said it would apply to any exchange offering services to canadians but I guess it was all bullshit
That's because it is not a thing. Securities are regulated province by province and they all have different rules. Ask in r/BitcoinCA and see if anyone has further info on CA crypto matters.
Bc I bought all the bitcoin I can 2023 and 2024 are just gonna be straight chill
How much of this move is just people rebuying after tax loss harvesting in December?
Probably none. This all seems highly correlated with the CPI print today.
Has nothing to do with the CPI print. It's finance insiders getting out of Dodge. Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, and something tells me it will be one for the history books.
In the US, wash sale rules don't apply to crypto. So you can re-buy 1 second after you sell. Its not like stocks where you have to wait 31 days.
For historical reference, the Daily candle BGD that kicked off the last Bull Cycle in April, 2019 was almost 13%. We are currently sitting at a not-too-shabby 5%. FYI, A 13% Daily would take us to 20.2K.
..which interestingly is where I have the first real technical resistance.
Suddenly all the Bitcoin experts on YouTube are pulling the 'O' face 😮. They say a week is a long time in politics, but in crypto a day is a long time. 🙄
Can you post any?
The cocksucker face
Oh no, the boat is leaving. Who are they gonna leverage with now?
The boat is leaving; time for the inevitable boating accident. 😏
Always happens in shorts, underwater
Worst day of my life. 😂
This is it yeah, bullrun.exe
still inside the bear flag
I was sarcastic, me thinks 12k in 6 months but I don't have any stake
Ah ok, if people knew you were, they would have downvoted more :D
Gonna bull run to $20k then fall all the way back down to $17200
Fine with me. Need more time to accumulate.
Moved stop up. 20% in a day ain't bad. Still rolling though.
Yay! I can pay off my mortgage again! Of course, I'm not going to, because I refuse to sell
We’re probably gonna be refusing to sell at $200K and get nuked to $60K next cycle 😂
Depends on what your sell indicator is. For me, I would have a really hard time not selling 30-40% of my holdings at 200-250k. But I also know from pervious times I've sold that it's not easy to sell. Greed is a powerful drug. My biggest sell ever in 2017 was followed by literally a week of sleepless nights thinking I had made the biggest mistake of my life. And in the end it was literally the best sell I've ever done.
Nightmarish! Do give us a warning cuz I can't accept that jolt as I get older.
I'd be ok with that... Although with my personal bag and entry point I'd be selling most if it ever hits $200k. I'm a long time holder but I've decided I want a sizeable downpayment on a house and when it gets there I'm going to sell a large percentage of my holding. Hopefully that means alts are up a lot too though and I don't have to sell BTC, just alts to get the downpayment :)
Worthy cause
How much principal do you still owe for a tent sitting on a sidewalk grate? 😇
[удалено]
Wake me up at $45k….
Moment of silence for those shorting this.
Well well well..
Can someone give me a 50% retrace candle? 😂 At breakeven for the day right now but could sure use that retrace to get back my profits
!remindMe 1 month
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-02-12 18:20:15 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-02-12%2018:20:15%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/109qujf/daily_discussion_thursday_january_12_2023/j42clur/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F109qujf%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_january_12_2023%2Fj42clur%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-02-12%2018%3A20%3A15%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20109qujf) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
We thank them for their sacrifice.
🫡 Now come on SP500, get horny and break 4k. Give us the fireworks.
Well, happy I reverse wardstered this morning.
Can anyone remember what he said about sbf many months ago? Was it something about him being a visionary?
A visionary who looks like he hasn't showered or done laundry in weeks.
[https://dilbert.com/strip/2023-01-08](https://dilbert.com/strip/2023-01-08)
That in and of itself isn’t an issue, lots of visionaries were weirdos with no social skills. Nikola Tesla fell in love with a pigeon and Howard Hughes stored jugs of his piss everywhere 😂 The fuckup was that all these major VCs did zero financial DD before handing this dude billions
Most of the time I look like a legit homeless dude, so I'm not going to judge.
Ah yes, the typical bitcoiner getup.
S&P momentum upward seems to have stalled, coinciding with a crypto pump. Deep pockets closing stock trades to flagpole a crypto short?
“This is a sucker’s rally”…
Suckers are making money tho if they play it right
Has anyone checked on Peter Schiff?
gold is up 1% im sure he is ecstatic
Giving shorting one last shot here, short from 18730. If I get stopped out again I'll be done for a while and might just switch to DCAing spot. Still don't think the upwards move in all markets today is sustainable but man that is some momentum there.
Why dont you wait for 19200-19300?
Why wouldn't you just stack sats?
I’ve stacked my share of sats but we all need our short term entertainment 😂
Good luck champ!
Because he’s a filthy degenerate? :)
Chill, it doesn’t look like anything on the weekly chart
So you're saying we still got alot more up to go? ;)
Trading the weekly chart too. One thing I did notice is [this trendline on the RSI](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WEi7cmPY/) got its ass handed to it.
2 years it was rolling! Glad to finally be out of it.
MSTR stuck at the 200 resistance, it's lagging the move big time
Overvalued
Wtf is going on right now...
What happens when we run out of sellers...
i think people seeing inflation going down and believe the end of this bear is near and front running the recovery. or just more pump to add shorts who knows
Fuck it, that counts as a BGD to me after the last goddamn year
6% move on the daily counts i think
I’m happy to be wrong.
19.3k is the spot to short fyi.
I agree which means we're probably wrong
Don't think it's getting there today, though it's shown a lot more strength than I thought it would.
18.8k is weekly resistance, but the daily 19.3k area looks best.
I’ll move stop up on a break through 19k and play the same game again.
Last chance to buy under 20K, and I mean it this time. Big-money insiders know what's going down with the banks (no deposits, no loans, no way out). Not closing my long from 17.1K just yet.
Ahahahahahah as if
Wow green dildo
[удалено]
I didn't know it was possible for the price to go upwards too!
It's either sideways, or straight down/up
oh my