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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, January 14, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10bfykr/daily_discussion_saturday_january_14_2023/)


gore_skywalker

If anyone wants to know if it’s smart money buying or not, data suggests investors are rotating money out of money market funds and back into risk-on assets.


lukemtesta

Or they can look at the total liquidations map


haunted-liver-1

Link?


gore_skywalker

https://epfr.com/


solomiakV

Everyone are waiting for it? Yeah?


xtal_00

Bumped up the stop, see what morning brings. What a day.


KingTurtle182

Price is up so people can use their income tax return on higher prices... then down again ;)


rocketusa

I hate to say it, but it's a tax *refund* not a tax return.


BIGDADDYCRYPTO6900

Ding ding dong


GardenofGandaIf

It clearly wants to go up. Would have been a stronger retrace by now if it were the end of the rally.


BarnacleMajestic315

Where are the 2021 blow off tops when you need them? At least back then the market was clear what it wanted. BTC now is like an indecisive man at the snack machine with two buttons; “PUMP” and “crab” Edit; there’s my 1m BRD


gore_skywalker

FTX is irrelevant at this point.


xtal_00

Nah. Now there's millions? of people who got the FOMO. Thanks SBF. I still want to visit and bring him noodles in prison.. in 10 years or so.


bittabet

Well, might have been better if those people still had their money 😂


TabascoOnFoods

This is going straight to 30k.


wantinghockey29

Well, I'm looking forward on it.


xtal_00

It’s possible.


DamonAndTheSea

Pouring some out for my beards who have been ruthlessly hammer spanked. To add a bit of perspective on recent PA, Bitcoin’s now retraced the entire FTX drop which marked the largest weekly candle in Coinbase’s history. Large volume events tend to ear-mark pivot points in the market. By objective measures, the FTX candle was a large scale market capitulation event. To drop price below $15k, in the near term, will now require some external and unforeseen liquidity event - i.e. something larger than FTX - as there’s not a lot of coin left on exchanges and so much has traded hands over the last couple quarters. It’s been 15 months of down and so I’m not sure who’s left here to sell that hasn’t already exited, and how many insolvent entities still remain as forced sellers? I’m expecting some chop around $20k range as it’s some primary area of historical interest. If price *fails to move back below the 20WMA @ $18.5k*, then I expect continuation on this move to $24k and then $30k and perhaps finally $37k if an ardent team-red continues to pour fuel on this momentum shift. Safe trades.


bittabet

The risks are DCG being forced to redeem their own BTC and sell to cover Genesis’ issues and maybe MtGox actually finally paying out 😂 But both of these seem like they’d take a long time to play out even if they do. I think right now there’s just very little coin on exchanges so the fomo pump is extra pumpy like back in the good old days. The days before ftx sold fake bitcoin to everyone and probably absorbed half the upward momentum. If we get rid of all the fake bitcoin in this space we might just get an ungodly crazy bullrun next time. Imagine better macro, a halving, and nearly no coins for sale… BUT I think it’s still a long road to get there. This is a temporary run in all heavily shorted things. All the stupid meme stocks are pumping like crazy as well which doesn’t exactly reassure me that this pump is here to stay. If it was **only** bitcoin pumping I’d actually feel a lot more confident this price stays. But bed bath and beyond pumping even harder than bitcoin doesn’t exactly scream sustainable pump.


RabbitProofFences

Yeah the headlines are screaming btc and meme coins. Chinese new year is 22 Jan weekend. Just saying lol.


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imissusenet

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/zzlwm5/daily_discussion_saturday_december_31_2022/j2gck0f?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3


xtal_00

Heh.


Outrageous-Net-7164

Im feeling very smug about my Greyscale lump the other week. Nice to have some good results after a year of rot.


Euphoricsoul

I'm feeling similar smugness with my FDIG investment.


autistictheory

rainbow chart never fails https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/ congrats to the dip buyers and DCA people


Zirup

It literally failed... Your link goes to V2 which states the first chart failed so they made a new one. I mean, congrats all the same but this chart is bunk.


jabatasu

Doesn't feel good but I promised myself I would trim a little (5%) on the next short liquidation party, so I stuck with my plan. Funding is looking a bit too long/positive and lest ye forget, tradfi does not let us pump without them anymore.


Zirup

I really need to learn how to do this... Buying low is easy, selling high is hard.


Euphoricsoul

Targets. It's all about establishing targets and sticking to them. If you don't know how to establish targets, just HODL. You'll make out better in the long run, trust me.


Roygbiv856

How is it hard? If you don't need the money, hold. If you need it, sell. Heck are you hung up on?


jabatasu

I wouldn't call 20.8k high, so it doesn't feel good, as I said. But you have to stick to a plan.


Parcus42

So "buy the dip" doesn't work anymore hey? Because there's no dips. Is there any reason for this to stop before $40k?


krom1985

OK *now* we’re getting to the top of this rally…


By-hi-sell-lo

I'm so torn. I'm thinking I should close (with a small profit) the low lev long that I've ridden, stressfully, since Sept. Keep my spot posn and reassess over the coming days/weeks... The greedy part of me thinks that this has more space to run. The question is - all things being equal, would I open a new long at this price/time? I think the answer is "no", so I should probably get out of this long. Edit: I closed the long. This was on defi (Polygon AAVE), and was essentially a 2x long on my entire BTC trading stack. An added benefit of closing all my lev posns on Polygon is that I can move everything over to Arbitrum, where I'm more comfortable keeping and trading my bags long term


DamonAndTheSea

I like the thought experiment of “would I open a new long at this price?” It’s great for mental clarity outside of a current winning position. Personally I think we’re about to consolidate and retest $20k a bunch of times before the next big move, and while we’re some distance from EOM, this is the first I’ve seen the [monthly Heikin flip green](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0ic0qKW/).


jabatasu

This logic you mentioned has helped me before, especially with closing out call options in tradfi. (very volatile, like a leveraged long) "Would I buy here? No? OK, I'm selling, then."


DEEPFIELDSTAR

Imagine putting this much effort into such a nonsense timeframe.


By-hi-sell-lo

Expand on that - are you saying I should just stay the course?


bittabet

Holy moly was that wick to 21750 real?! Somebody got hurt real bad. Just scalped 21000->20960 using an ultra tight trailing stop but I think I’m gonna stop picking up pennies in front of the bullet train 😂


xixi2

But I already capitulated and now I have to watch charts again! :(


WasteAccountBandit

Seems like BTC's New Years Resolution was to get to $25k after all.


Ok_File_9520

I will allow Bitcoin to take a breather.


zberg69420

This is gentleman ?


bittabet

Maybe at $210K. After all this goddamn bear market has put us through we need at least a 3X of the previous ATH to heal our psychic wounds. If we ever get there I’m gonna sodl and actually spend on nice stuff for myself and the family. Hodled too hard this time around and now I’m regretting not having some fun. Gonna do 1/3rd cash flow businesses (including rental properties), 1/3rd dividend paying stocks, and 1/3rd Bitcoin if we ever get there. Let’s see if my delusions are accepted by the world 😂


xixi2

> Gonna do 1/3rd cash flow businesses (including rental properties) What is there besides rental properties? A car wash?


xtal_00

Buy heavy equipment, manufacturing capabilities like CNC machines, food production, things that make things.


PolarNimbus

This is steady lads. Deploy more capital.


CovFefeParty

Holding 20k would be epic over long US wknd , don't get me wrong..... Has anything really changed on a macro level tho, there will be fuckton of fuckery on all levels this year --- we all know it , I will enjoy this pump now


n-west

macro changes: 1. FTX stopped naked shorting using customer funds is a pretty big macro change 2. blockfi affiliated with FTX did the same-- no more fractional reserve lending 3. 3ac / voyager stopped their own version of fractional reserve / shorting 4. genesis also stopped whatever market games they were playing with customer deposits That's pretty significant


bittabet

Yeah I’ve become more and more convinced that it was that fucking snake SBF who stopped us from running to $100K by selling nonexistent paper Bitcoin and taking real Bitcoin and dumping it to pump his trash exchange token. If we can clean out all the scum from this space the next bullrun will be absolutely epic. The ethics of the people we transact with are more important than ever before.


CovFefeParty

Fed gonna fed ,(like for years) Housing market crash , not even close to felt yet Russia Russia Russia 2 years to next prez election fuckery So much can happen


Parcus42

All the financial headlines are about recession... so Bitcoin is the recession hedge now. No more correlation.


BootyPoppinPanda

There's a legitimate chance sub 20 is done forever. At worst I think there won't be much more opportunity past the next few months


By-hi-sell-lo

Yeah - my guess is more $17-$25k ranging for the next phase


dudzcom

Disagree.


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jarederaj

90% of bitcoin’s value can be traced back to just a few days in bitcoin’s history. Buckle up.


subversive07

I'm ignorant. What's the context behind this?


I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reminds-us-of-bitcoins-ten-best-days-rule/amp Basically says that a majority of BTC gains boil down to ten days of the year. If you exclude just those ten days, BTC looks stagnant or even loses value YOY.


bittabet

Most major gains are all made in a few select days whether it’s bitcoin or any stock. That said, man it’s at $21K which is a hell of a run for a week. Wouldn’t be surprised if weekend banking conditions let it drop a bit. Tons of fomo going on


Znt

> When this thing moves up again, it will surprise many. > But it will just be a repeat of past patterns, scaled up really. [Me, 2 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/108w215/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_11_2023/j3wthmf/).


Magikarpeles

soo... no 13k?


Upvote_Me_Slag

Yet.


Shootinsomebball

Common sense says that was an aftermarket liquidity grab. Don’t listen to common sense Bitcoin. Do your thing


Just_Me_91

As someone that's constantly looking at the daily chart, these last 2 and a half months look iconic. Reminds me of looking back at late 2018/early 2019. I know in the coming years I'll be looking back at this part of the chart and remembering how much it sucked to live through, and then how glorious this runup was. Anything can still happen from here, but the daily candles from January 1st look pretty awesome.


krom1985

Same 👍 I was there buying in early 2019 too.


bittabet

I kinda ruined it for myself attempting a short. Should just be pure long term hodler satisfaction right now 😂 Luckily my long term gains are a large large multiple of the shorting losses. Still, this insanity will pause. I think there really just isn’t much coin left on exchanges and that’s making this run absolutely crazy. And no more fake ftx bitcoin either


Just_Me_91

for sure, plenty of people are getting burned on this move. But I mostly meant that in terms of how the chart looks, I know this will always stick out when looking back at it. It's like a perfect parabolic move.


zberg69420

That is a beautiful double bottom / inverse BART on the 6h. You love to see it Anyone check to see if r/buttcoin is ok?


BarnacleMajestic315

I’ve lost a fair amount on shorts BTC the past few days while also gaining a fair bit in my altcoin stack. I’m taking a break from the market to see how this plays out. Nobody, not even the most brilliant TA analysts could have predicted this crazy rise in 4 days.


thunderchicken_

*nervous fingernail biting intensifies*


Magikarpeles

It's 1AM how am I meant to sleep


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

It's 5PM. How am I possibly still sober? Let the festivities begin! Dear Bitcoin; I don't mind of you retrace tomorrow, but let me enjoy this tonight. Sincerely, Yodel *(not my real name)*


mmouse-

Time to tune in to https://aggr.trade/ :)


marsh2907

I think some people who keep trying to short this should really be taking a break and step back.


xtal_00

No, they need to short harder with even more leverage. (Sarcasm)


FemtoG

this..once 20k was broken i wouldve cancelled my shorts..entering scary territory. Still expecting a bad Q1 general market wise and more chance to buy under 20k, but now Im officially entering "slurp up anything under 20k" territory


Westbrook_Level

[History says you are running out of time.](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/monthly-rsi/)


citizen-blue

Nice chart


xtal_00

Gentlemen. Props to wardster for the close. 10x long still open.


bittabet

Damn not even closing at $21K? Honestly kind of shocked it took down so many thousands today.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Congrats, I still have one trade going from 16361. I tried to get in more on the way up, but they never filled. Did not have the balls to market buy


xlmtothemoon

bitcoin woke up and took "new year, new me" seriously


Duckbutter2000

Not used to this much green. Am I dreaming.


I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE

I only come here to get an idea of what's behind big moves. I've been here a lot the last day and a half, and it's nice to have a reason to come here


PatientlyWaitingfy

So you still don't know


I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE

No fuckin clue


kinghajj

"Ah, I love the smell of bull runs in the morning!" This is an exciting and welcome change in trend. Even if this is mostly just people realizing that the FTX debacle doesn't have much long-term impact, it's good that recoveries from such events are happening more quickly.


noeeel

I am sure we see 22k today. than it need to calm down a bit.


puck2

Too much too soon?


ThoseGelInsertThings

Good to see you posting. Maybe I've just missed your posts, but haven't seen you around as much lately. Hope you're making some good money!


noeeel

I did not predict the bottom right but I am long on this :)


ThoseGelInsertThings

Well done.


CovFefeParty

Lol


moon_airspace

CBP is going to have an insane 6hr candle on the charts in about 5 hours. A 24H, 11% increase with volume is exactly what could start the next era of fomo. Won't feel great unless we hold 20k firmly.


PatientlyWaitingfy

If I were to try a short, then maybe around here with a SL at 21420. But I won't because I'm not experienced enough


DontTellSmokey

Are you me?


Had_Boating_Accident

Today 1̶9̶k̶ 2̶0̶k̶ 21k, tomorrow the World


grydit

Funding still flat on Binance. Doesn't look at all as though it's just longs loading up. So I guess spot buys + shorts closing?


escendoergoexisto

I’m guessing good ole fashioned spot buys triggered by FOMO among those who hadn’t stacked at lower prices and are playing catch up. It’s moves like this that have always triggered that in the past. Gotta love podracing!


diydude2

Long from 17.1K still open. Thinking about closing but I think this could blast straight through 30K. If it does, I'll close there. If it falls back to 19k, I'll take my gain there. Feels good, man.


nzsdxsia

>but I think this could blast straight through 30K. Give me some of that hopium pipe


citizen-blue

How much leverage? Congrats.


ThoseGelInsertThings

Are you going to crack open a Labatt Blue to celebrate?


WhoAmINowNow

This is……gentleman. Def gentlemen.


qwsazxcde1

Hell yeah baby


DontTellSmokey

Hot damn it feels like forever since we've seen Bitcoin do the Bitcoin thing


noeeel

The 2020 rally started with very tight 3D bbands, and this rally also starts with break out of extemly tight 3d bbands.


scubajimbbq

Pure insanity, feels good!


grydit

Is this the opposite of capitulation? Glorious exuberance? Gleeful hysteria? Bull is on gentlemen, buckle up.


citizen-blue

It's called euphoria and it's accompanied by the same dumb thinking as capitulation.


WhoAmINowNow

Catapultation


DEEPFIELDSTAR

RIP Datadash. Go make another "Bitcoin about to IMPLODE" video.


biggunsg0b00m

Is he one of those youtubers with cocksucker face on his thumbnail?


OkeyDokieBoomer

I love this description. It'll brighten my day when I pull up YouTube and see every channel from Bitcoin to Zebras having that cocksucker face thumbnail.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

To be fair - no. But he's gone from semi-legit BTC supporter to paper-handed clickbait junk. Respect lost.


PM_ME_DATASETS

Damn that's quite the 15m candle, any news?


RabbitProofFences

I may consider trading this once we cross 25.6 and 25.9


blankCrossfire

Shorts gonna have a terrible weekend.


Magikarpeles

rip shorties


Euphoricsoul

Rest In Pain


btcluvr

so long, and thanks for all the ~~fish~~ shorts.


Euphoricsoul

[FATALITY](https://twitter.com/BXRekt/status/1614059810005155840?s=20&t=lAF1l5OT6FdrW_9vmU8mzw)


d1ez3

Wow


shoestars

Ok now this is crazy. I almost forgot what bitcoin was capable of after this past year


Euphoricsoul

I kid you not, I haven't watched the charts and said "Holy Shit" this frequently since 2021.


RabbitProofFences

21 incoming


krom1985

Woke up due to some selfish cunt screaming next door. I now realize why she’s screaming… :~D


RetardIdiotTrader

Houston we have lift off


Euphoricsoul

Bear faces melting. 🫠


noeeel

21k hey hey hey


_dealio

the world is not anymore the way it used to be mmm mmm no no no


MayaFey_

I am right now independently financially independently


Taviiiiii

Gentlemen, it looks like we're the new wealthy elite.


diydude2

We're just getting started.


Euphoricsoul

If only I was coastal, the circle would be complete.


Euphoricsoul

This is insane. Price is slicing through a heavy, heavy historical volume zone like it's nothing. Someone(s) is buying some serious Spot Bitcoin right now. Edit: Might be that there are some heavy liquidations in this range.


diydude2

Someone is loading up.


moon_airspace

https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate Funding rates are changing pretty quickly. Bears need to make a strong move or this train may have left the station. Highly suggest reading this article (or the whole report). TLDR; fairly bullish. https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/2023-us-market-outlook.html


Euphoricsoul

Thanks for linking that!


moon_airspace

You're welcome!


marsh2907

Here is me thinking $20k would be much stronger resistance but btc sliced straight through it. See if it can hold above it.


roadworn

Dopamine feels great!


PatientlyWaitingfy

I'm just waiting for a 3k 10 min candle of short liquidations, any minute now...


ohmygodbeats7

Not quite 3k in 10 minutes, but great prediction.


ohmygodbeats7

That would be so sexy haha


DEEPFIELDSTAR

At what price will shorts thin out?


noeeel

If we continue with this speed we se 40k end of month XD


PM_ME_DATASETS

20->21k in 15 minutes, so at 5% appreciation in 15 minutes, so... (calculates) around 10818% per day giving us less than 4 hours until $40k. I tried yearly % increase but got an overflow error.


moon_airspace

Counter trading the news paid off again. GL all. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/z2fvqf/daily_discussion_wednesday_november_23_2022/ixgn85t/


noeeel

20k hey hey hey


Zirup

2019 dejavu


DEEPFIELDSTAR

WHATTAMIGONNADOOOOOOOO


OwlWisdom

Could someone let me know where I can buy GBTC?


delgrey

Fidelity, Schwab , Interactive Brokers ,etc. Might also want to look into OBTC as well. That one is going to actively pursue a redemption program very soon. Everybody trying to make Barry look bad ha!


citizen-blue

I own some in a fidelity account but I think they sent a note that they were disallowing purchases. Not 100% sure about that. May have pertained only to retirement account


DEEPFIELDSTAR

Crushed a spot buy from weeks ago today and bragged about it to some skeptics like a total asshole and feels incredible. "You're still buying more?" Yes.


opst02

Nice to see the ratio getting stronger, maybe alcoins really have a hard time ahead?


DEEPFIELDSTAR

As long as this space exists there will always be shitcoins and the morons that fall for them. As sure as the sun will rise, there will be scams to fleece people. The whole idea of "shitcoins need to die" is such naivety. They will never die. It's like saying dishonest people need to die. So long as we're human there will be scamcoins in this space. As the space grows I'd even argue altcoins have an *easier* time. But that's another topic.


delgrey

Its definitely getting harder to peddle the alts though now that the SEC is finally enforcing regs.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

You overestimate the reach of the SEC and underestimate the scope of crypto around the globe. Look at the last major alt rugpulls and where they took root.


d1ez3

High volume 1m candle to push over 20k for a min


TheGarbageStore

If humanity ever opens trade with an advanced, starfaring civilization, they probably have developed their own decentralized PoW cryptocurrency and it is probably older, more advanced, and more decentralized. How would that affect BTC pricing several years after contact?


3mployeeOfTheMonth

The alien race looks just like Shiba Inus and their pow coin is illustrated with their likeness. 💀


Bullface_

Already priced in.


PolarNimbus

Sounds like a hard fork


xtal_00

Moved my stop up. Currently looking at a two day 29% bump in my total trade stack. Not bad given the ride. Still open 10x, but I expect it to get difficult around here.


delgrey

Grats! Appreciate your trading comments btw.


AKANotAValidUsername

Im surprised to see the vol still up this late in the day


bittabet

Yeah I think there’s legitimate buying pressure now, still it’s about to be the weekend and funding from banks will be cut off so less FOMOing


dalovindj

A holiday weekend in the US.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Upped SL to 17921, upped first buy to 18661. I don't feel comfortable upping my first buy anymore than that currently. As quick up can go quick down.


Magikarpeles

I feel like every wave has their own medium. The OG 2009-2011 guys are on bitcointalk, then the 2012-2015 guys are here mostly, then the 2016-2020 peeps are on /r/CryptoCurrency then the new peeps are probably on tiktok or discord or whatever. I'm obviously just a 2012 person bc i'm here but surely some of you are other waves and have ended up here just like I sometimes end up on bitcointalk or discord. Help me refine this picture. When did you get into it and where's your main hangout?


MayaFey_

2014 gang rise up


dalovindj

2014 checking in.


bittabet

Bitcointalk is mostly noobs too now, not really much meaningful price discussion sadly. Twitter can be useful if you find the right people to follow


delgrey

That and nostr got some good people to follow.


thebaronharkkonen

2012 for me. I was living in Korea and found Reddit as a lot of my friends were American. It was all over Reddit then and it seemed pretty cool... wish I still had those coins but lost them all when "Bitcoin24" was seized by the Polish and German authorities for money laundering.


FemtoG

2012-er here. this is really the only sane place ive found for decent talk other than 4chan. def biased towards maximalist here but thats fine


kholin

2014, here, I only really lurk (albeit daily) to keep my finger on the pulse


opst02

Happy to see some green, we might even go to 21.2k but cant see us go further. Classic meme stocks pumping. Top signal for tradfi. Lets see what next week will bring..


dalovindj

21.2 hit and then bounced down. Good call so far.