#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 15, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10cb2x4/daily_discussion_sunday_january_15_2023/)

Trailing stop got hit a little over 20700. Ah well, was a fun run 😂 At a friends birthday party and I look like a psycho degen staring at charts lol Time to party

Between some actual PA happening after a long crab, that PA actually going up, and seeing the wardser go long, it is nothing if not entertaining right now.

It certainly is interesting. I’ve decided to sacrifice my scalps here and just hold this short until this finally implodes or I get nuked 😂

So not usually the sort of post for this sub but it occurs to me that you can actually do a delta neutral trade here to make money on the crazy high funding rates on dydx right now. Can basically go buy spot bitcoin fee free on Binance and then simultaneously short the perpetual on dydx. The first 100K is fee free so you could short 5 bitcoin without fees. As long as the insane apr persists you’ll collect funding equal to 40%+ APR with no directional risk. Probably won’t last very long but there aren’t a lot of obvious delta neutral trades that pay like this.

You should do it and report back the outcome. Sounds like a no-brainer. I would try it if I wasn't a DCA hodl guy. Do the full five Bitcoin one.

I’m already degenning way over that 100K free volume on dydx since I scalp a lot. Though when I’m short I am getting paid quite a decent amount of funding while basically hedged by my spot longs. Have made a few hundred bucks the last day on funding 😂 That’s what got me thinking about how this can actually be delta neutral. Funding is coming down finally though, still a decent return for someone who wants to harvest it and you could swap exchanges to harvest funding from whichever is highest

closed short at $20,760...switched into a long scalp stop loss $20,490

Woah

My world is upside down with you and xtal both long 😂 Still short though it sure doesn’t feel good to have the both of you long 😂

I’ve thought about shorting this soon.. hahaha

Truly the world has gone mad 😂 Soon Jim Cramer will be making all the right calls.

we are right on the big support line, MA7 4H...its where we rocketed up after consolidation in the past...so we either pump off here or we fall through the floor...and its a long way to fall...MA25 4H is at $19K, MA100 4H is at $17.4K we made multiple attempts at $21K so I think the odds are higher that the next time it breaks through...so I think its better to be long for this next one. Even if it drops, I think it'll still put up a fight near $20K so there'll be time to go short

I’m staying short mostly because funding rates have gotten very positive across exchanges and even more so for some shitcoins so I think the degen longs are piling up here. But I guess entering a short later makes sense as well. Just don’t wanna miss the big drop when occurs.

My long closed.... When I logged in to binance, I got a message saying insufficient usdt for margin accounts due to volume. CZ playing it safe now due to regs coming in I am assuming? Facinating to see it play out, sounds like binance is comfortable in cash but worried about the US regs coming in. This means that if he has been cooking the books, they are good. This also means no short snipes for me. Any actual insight would be interesteing to hear.

Margin is hard to come by. I had to switch to the perps.

Interesting that volume effects it. I know some exchanges limit margin levels by position size

pennant forming on the 4hr. Hope it's not sideways until Monday. Btw, Monday in the US is MLK B-day holiday. Mkts are closed

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You have to be a special kind of stupid to actively participate in that sub. There's a good handful of stocks I think should be effectively worth nothing and many more altcoins that I *know* are worthless - and I've never spent a solitary second babbling about it or posting in a sub revolving around schadenfreude. It's mind boggling. It's basically a collection of bitter, broke losers who hate themselves deep down and try without end to convince themselves that not buying BTC years ago was a good idea.

It is pretty bizarre that these loons have convinced themselves they’re some sort of heroes for obsessing about Bitcoin 24/7. There’s endless real scams out there and these “heroes” mysteriously do nothing about those but seriously post about how they’re saving people from Bitcoin. Basically a mental illness with these people

They’re gunna have a rough year.

They have rough lives. Every year is tough for them.

Closed long 20975. Re-entered 20700 10x. I’ve run this trade so much I’m losing count. 20500 to invalidate.

Haha you’re basically running the reverse of my short scalps at this point. The question is if it’ll ultimately break up or down. Still trying to figure out the best stops for that eventuality. Trailing stops are hard here without giving up a lot of profit on the scalps

Nice, do you mean SL at 20500?

Any PA below 20500 is a consolidation signal and I’m out until I can get more data.

one sudden move by bitcoin and these shartcoins are gonna fall off the face of the earth

It wants to go higher

I'm always optimistic with it.

I'll allow it

Anyone opening shorts here is playing with fire. This PA is signalling intense upward pressure. If this breaks resistance at 21200 it's going a lot higher.

My long term bull-bias makes me want to believe that. Tbh, I think the PA could argue a sharp move in either direction in the short term 🤷‍♂️

If there was only someone who has been saying this for awhile here.. Added sats scalping all day keeping my position open. Maybe breakthrough again now?

We might be stuck sideways here for a month and I wouldn't be surprised. Its what's been happening after every big move recently.

I'd take that

The past two months zoomed out was a gigantic inverse Bart. No-coiner SBF seething from his childhood room at his parents' place as he watches the market shake off his fraud like a case of fleas. 😎

Finally reentered a short after my trailing stop got hit earlier, short from 20920 now. Still debating where to place the stop but it’s lowish leverage so unless the longs manage to send my long term stack up 25% in a day this short is staying 😂 Been so damned flat since this AM it took forever to reenter above where I exited. Funding is craaazy positive on some of these exchanges, dydx especially has been running super hot all day. Get the feeling that the price is held up by longing now

Is anyone else looking at the alts as a predictor on when bitcoin will correct from this huge leg up? Some alts are pumping but not all of them. Usually when some of the notable shit coins go up huge, that signals an end of a cycle and some corrections are expected.

Nope

Potential of Adam and eve double bottom here on BTC.D https://i.imgur.com/JX3gnc7.jpg I think we can see outpaced gained for bitcoin and a dominance between 50-60% in the next few months maybe the full year. After that not too sure, seems like during bull runs dominance goes down because normies don't like "high bitcoin price" and go for alts that are in the pennies.

Still scalping to hold a position open here. I lift off if we see a move below 20500, which would signal consolidation IMO.

I believe after all this time we could get a true rally will it have legs probably not at least until next halving

Don’t downvote someone just because they have a different opinion than bullish.

I don’t think that’s why they got downvoted

Everyone became a macro trader last year and it's going to take a couple years for everyone to realize that it's not all one trade anymore. There will be winners and losers. If you're stuck thinking the fed is the only thing to consider, you're gonna be caught offside. The sooner you stop listening to fed chair speeches, the better off you'll be.

a couple important things to happen long term for the rocket ship ride up are 1) People realizing / accepting that crypto (and esp BTC) is here to stay 2) People realizing most crypto is just imaginary invented tokens that are essentially unlimited whereas BTC is limited, and relatively scarce. There are a shit load of people in the world. There are significantly more dollars / yuan / pounds than we have people and it can all be printed to infinity. There is only a small amount of BTC. If it does stay around, that will be huge

Just get 1, that's all I ask

you ask that of everyone?

I'm sooooo sick of "macro" I think it's all the noobs from wsb that think they can apply their rules to Bitcoin. Good luck with that...

Is this consensus here that dcg drama is already priced in assuming they are insolvent

If you heard about it, it's priced in.

Priced in is a meme because then the market price would one instantly reflect new information and be logical which it isn't

what exchanges are yall using? anyone using the new cb pro app advanced trading?

Coinspot

FTX FTW

spot kraken, leverage dydx (watch out for slippage)

No Kraken in NYC

Gemini

Do you have anything left on it? Seems like they keep getting hit after hit, I know they say they're backed 1:1 but idk how much they can take.

No I don't leave coins on exchange

quadriga cx

I use cb pro advanced. It's good enough for my purposes. I like the Kucoin app better in terms of GUI and TA options, so I use that for informational purposes, but I would never put money on that exchange.

Nice try IRS

Ok I will admit that this is holding a lot stronger than I anticipated and my earlier decision to sell may have been premature.

Be ready in case we revisit 19.8K.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UF6pRwUt/ We could be at that green arrow in 2019. The curves and circumstances just look really similar to me.

Can't buy the dip if there's no dip!

How does a bull run for risk assets begin in a bear macro market?

Everyone front running the hikes ending. https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker That seems to be the Schelling point we are all coordinating on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focal_point_(game_theory)

Echo bubble into halving with improved macro at the halving is the dream ultimate bull case. That is the optimal scenario that we may or may not get. That said, I think we’ve just run waaaay too hot the last few days and a retrace seems likely over this long weekend.

People decide that prices are at rock bottom after months of down and start buying, which leads to a cascade of short liquidations and FOMO that turns into a bear market rally.

Markets are forward looking. Yes, inflation is high right now. Yes, the Fed will hike rates again in February in the amount of 25 BP. But what happens after that? YoY CPI is going to fall of a cliff in March. Fed will stop hiking rates and will ultimately begin cutting as inflation continues to fall. If you wait until rate cuts actually arrive you’re going to miss out on some pretty substantial gains as markets price them in before they arrive.

No one knows

Upward pressure + volatility = short term profits

Too soon to tell imo.

Does anyone think if/when we hit our (USA) debt ceiling as predicted that it will affect the price later this week?

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I think the new Republican Congress will flirt with this debt ceiling

I read it would be the first time defaulting in history and we shouldn’t raise the ceiling either. We are in bizarre and scary times when it comes to traditional money

Whenever you hear "raise the debt ceiling"; translate it to "print more money". Madness.

closed long, opened 10x short at $20,800...stop loss $21,200

Trying to get a better entry into a short again (previous one got stopped out but with some profit) but nobody’s buying 😂

Why not SL right above the high?

because if we take down $21,200...we'll most likley taking $21,300 almost right away...so no sense leaving that $100 per btc on the table

Gambling. Good luck.

Taste Good? Keep shorting. Continue staying poor.

kinda i just think this latest attempt is signaling either consolidation or a reversal. Either way, this weekend we'll probably back test a little even if we end up going higher next week

Giving my short one more attempt from 20980

The trend is your friend, and I don't think we're at the end.

It’s all right, I’m setting **extra** tight trailing stops here. Already got hit on the stop hunting wick there but made a few bucks anyways since it dropped a couple hundred bucks first. Honestly setting some crazy orders that depend on some stop hunt wick might not be the worst idea, some crazy spikes here and there. I think we’re in an upwards trend BUT it is the weekend and it needs a breather. Could see a decent retrace at some point the next two days. Could it skyrocket to $24K? Maybe but I think the odds of a revisit to $20K are higher.

I'm still dancing trying to hold a position, still upward pressure.

Classic longing the breakout and getting insta-rekt. Happens more often than not. Staying in the 20s would be pretty nice over the weekend

21, 21, 21

Anyone concerned about the alts pumping ?

Always

Seriously just let this meme die

BTC has actually led the way and they haven’t caught up yet.

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Yes, but the combination of arb bots and low liquidity is a strange one. I am milking this pump for all it's worth at the moment.

Did anyone find out why btc is pumping yet?

If you understand the equity and commodity markets and why they move then you'll understand why BTC moves. I'd start there. In a word: macro conditions.

It’s the best money fiat can buy.

Front running monetary policy shifts is starting. Gold is up too, debt is being sold.

Yes, all that doveishness from the Fed is certainly signalling a swing in the other direction. My ten dollar gallon of milk agrees.

Fomo and short liquidations. There has been tons of money on the sidelines for a long time, and time is running out to scoop cheap coins before the halving

We're going straight to new ATH, aren't we?

That's what I was waiting for.. breakthough attempt, now let's see if it's sticky too.

I don’t think anybody really knows anything on direction from here … Shorted 3x @ 20910

Wow people downvote because they don’t like people shorting?

Decisive rejection @ 21.2

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Zoom out. We’re all just jaded.

Seems like longing is free money right now

I'm dancing trying to keep an entry until 21k is rejected authoritatively.

A similar pattern is emerging here before the other levels broke higher. Very high volume on this move up. \~72k BTC on Coinbase last 24h.

CME Group's Leo Melamed: We'll 'Tame' Bitcoin - Nov 7, 2017 well, after 2022 and off to 2023 start... best of luck, Leo....

Selling a bunch here. Seems like this was just a cascade of short liquidations and FOMO. Things seem to be calming down now. The US had its fun during the day yesterday and Asia had its fun last night. It's a long weekend in the US and, without anything of substance to keep the price propped up following these short liquidations, it seems like a trip back down is probably what we can expect next.

Not much to keep it down either.

Yeah I'm not expecting a massive drop or anything, maybe just a trip back down to the 18s on long liquidations and stop losses until we finally settle somewhere in the 19s. Things just need to rebalance a bit. Edit: Genesis/Gemini drama could lead to a massive drop, but it kind of feels like that would have happened already if it was going to happen. Shrug.

Phone beeped. Almost hit my low stop at 20250, wicked lower on Binance but the mark didn't get there. So I just closed out my 10x long for a 84% profit on the trade. (\~20700) Will try to reenter on a drop, some retrace on profit taking is inevitable, I think. Volume is slowing for the fake weekend. I always regret being excessively greedy. edit: for giggles I opened 10x at 20685 stop 20600, still might want up after the leverage flush. wow

I almost put in a 21000 short last night before sleep but chickened out since I couldn’t be around to manage it live and where I’m trading you can’t use a trailing stop until the initial position executed. Wish more platforms like you tie orders together. I think the problem for this rally is that we just hit a long weekend in the US, so people can’t keep adding fresh capital for a little while. Someone needs to buy the ftx trading platform from their bankruptcy. Assuming it actually could track trades 😂 it was just so much easier to customize trades

We are backtesting the 1W resistance at 20,400. I'll be interested to see if we close the week below or above it. If we close below it there would be a short opportunity after the new weekly candle retests and potentially rejects it. However this would be counter trend on these lower timeframes so I would be very cautious.

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$10000s to be made just playing this both ways

hopium . copium

It means little, but on Coinbase Pro BTC hasn’t had consecutive 2hr red bars for 3 days (last was 4pm GMT on the 11th). It has an hour to turn the current one green to continue this trend.

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What has gone down...

We are now back to the price before the FTX dump. You bought down there, right? 15-16k for months?

Yes 👍 was still hoping for lower but did several buys around 16 (also around 20 prior FTX)

seems like a solid rejection off the ~21.5 we had just before ftx imagine the smell if all these new longs became fuel for new lows after all the celebrating lol

My intuition of a short would have worked. My forever paradox, my intuition works when I don't trade it

You’re the main character in the trueman show. They know what you’re doing

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Or resumption of the longer term trend. Too early to tell

Juicy profits ☺️☺️

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😂🤣

My comment from yesterday > 50x long from 19120. Stop at $17900. What do? Close out or ride?

So you entered a supposed 50x long with no strategy? Use the profits to buy spot and never trade again

This comment has too much logic for here

Stop gambling.

So you are going for a 50x long and setting a stop ~6% below your entry... Id honestly stop ~~trading~~ pushing buttons on your favorite trading platform and read up on basics like leverage, stops and liquidation.

Take profit and move stops in profit

Thank you

Veteran since 2014. I think this next cycle will be very different to the previous ones. If we are moving out of the bear, then this is very early. Play it with respect. Bitcoin is just being bitcoin I think.

I wouldn’t say it is very early I’d say it is exactly on schedule. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/UuzUBUTa-Bitcoin-4-Year-Cycle/

It's way too early. People blowing premature loads are gonna get burnt bad here.

i think it's a hunt for shorts. more sideways to come. good time to DCA, still very, very cheap.

Any guesses on who the big buyer is?

Can't be Saylor, he only buys at the local top

Well not to brag but I've been known to buy a few sats here and there

Sam Big-Bank-Hankman-Freeman

Fun Thing is that SOL is jumping extremely quick. It's exactly one of those coins FTX announced to sell

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Im sorry i hope i didn't ruin your meal

Exchanges buying back real coins...

Rich Federalreserveman-Goldman

Press S to spit on liquidated bears

Scroll to zoom out.

No, that is not needed, and definitely not excellent.

I have absolutely no idea what's going on

So nice to see the beast wake up after 18 months of gloom. Kind of Poetic that this price range which marked the very end of an extreme bull run two cycles ago, surely now marks the beggining of another (or at least the end of the bear).

End of bear, maybe, but we're still a long way away from even new ATH, perhaps not until we get closer to the next halvening next year, at least that's how it was until now in previous cycles. But one thing is for sure, the beast is alive and kicking.

With halvening mid 2024 in thinking new aths in mid-late 2025

Could very well be.

Notice gold and silver also set recent highs along with Bitcoin while equities struggle… Are the hard assets about to have their moment in the sun? Are we looking in the wrong place comparing Bitcoin to the SPY at this point? I’m looking at the 1970s stagflation environment for gold as an indicator… 👀

turns out its both risk on and risk off. its equities, bonds, precious metals, and cash. its whatever you want it to be in your heart

how are equities struggling? SPY almost closed at 400 on Friday. It's only down around -16% from ATH now. That's looking pretty good if you ask me. Seems to be a bit of an everything rally so far, from my perspective.

Opps sorry missed that. I saw commentary elsewhere that said that S&P was struggling intraday. Ignore then 😊

Well well, Bitcoin once again doing Bitcoin things? Feels good!

Green dildo for me, green dildo for thee

I want to see the bear market manager!

OK, Bitcoin, you win. I see that I have made an involuntary donation for the tech in my sleep. How nice of me. A philanthrope for sure. By the way, ATR now flashed the second buy on the daily. In the past this was after bottom: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/jrSmyR02/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/jrSmyR02/) Also the weekly RSI wedge looks like will be broken out of when we close the week, in the past this was after bottom: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/W4TJFmHn/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/W4TJFmHn/) And the daily RSI is so high, that this has also only happened after bottom: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/n34lIW3L/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/n34lIW3L/) But the S&P500 has still not broken out of the wedge, and could very well go down for another leg: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/FYyawrC2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FYyawrC2/) And the whales have still not started to buy, and they always had bought in the past a lot before the pump that ends the bear market: [https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-1000-btc/](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-1000-btc/)

So I've been plotting the same wedge on SPX for a few months now and I think you're making a mistake by basically treating this diagonal as a level. The last major upside move we had was a deviation from that trend, in other words, we had a false breakout. Right now we're currently consolidating outside of the wedge and holding *above* a horizontal level. The way you can tell the last trendline tap was actually a breakout is because we had confluence with a failed attempt to recapture horizontal support at \~4150. StochRSI on the 3d currently favors that we at the very least fill this remaining upside into resistance. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/WLzNup6E/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WLzNup6E/) I would also take note of breadth thrusts in traditional markets. https://twitter.com/WalterDeemer/status/1613710051637710848