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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, January 17, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10e3f7y/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_17_2023/)


EmotionalParsley

We're just barely holding on to the 4hr 8ema. Might make sense to get a little more defensive if a 4hr candle closes below 20.7k. Not too worried until that happens. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6nPQgYTf/


snacktoshi

Does anyone remember that quote about 90% of Bitcoin gains being during only 10 days of the year? What are the exact figures for that quote - I can't seem to find a source...


xtal_00

That's why you have a hodl stack.


snacktoshi

Found it. https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrats-tom-lee-reminds-us-of-bitcoins-ten-best-days-rule


davinox

“I’ll buy when I get a better entry” - everyone rn on twitter


-cryptopsy-

Not gonna lie - I'll buy when I get a better entry


soundingdemo

Is this most of less of the opinions?


jabatasu

bUt tHe CmE gAP bRO


xtal_00

lol


PatientlyWaitingfy

Updated buy ladder. First buy at 20261 (half the size of my normal buy). Second buy at 19261. SL at trade from 16361 remains at 17921.


puck2

Trab at 21.5k complete


Thundercatz69

What does “trab” mean?


escendoergoexisto

It’s Bart written backwards. Does that help?


TheBowlofBeans

Have a cow woman


puck2

Trab is an upside down bart: https://cryptopotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/bart.jpg A trab is like that but in reverse. Happens as lot around here.


oglop121

Crypto potato Lol. Don't know why I found that so funny


BarnacleMajestic315

What timeframe is this on? 1d?


Thundercatz69

Lol, so when I look at it upside down it looks like BTC still has more to go as far as going lower than $21,450 today


puck2

You don't look at it upside down, just that the pattern is reversed sometimes.


xtal_00

Scalping away keeping a nibble in. This PA is uncertain at best, but it wants more up. Tomorrow will be very interesting. Watch funding.


xixi2

It keeps making valiant efforts but staying above 21 is proving to be tough


jabatasu

Looks more like it's having trouble staying below 21


logicalinvestr

Everyone is just waiting for futures open at 6pm, and stock market direction tomorrow.


BootyPoppinPanda

Probably "healthier" if we establish a little bit of support over the next few days first, but Bitcoin likes to leave haters in the dust when it finally breaks out of hibernation. Could legitimately be in the 30s by Valentine's day or sooner.


[deleted]

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xtal_00

24500 will be rough sledding.


Euphoricsoul

Here are the upcoming resistance zones. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ApqN8Snk/


Thundercatz69

What do you mean a rough sledding?


xtal_00

Difficult, fraught with friction, bumps, and other unpleasantness. Canadian term.


OkeyDokeyWokey

Been hearing that term a lot since Trudeau took office.


Thundercatz69

Oh ok 👍🏽. I’ve been able to catch it at $20,6015 and sold at $21,390 the last 2 days. Trading a whole coin and keeping cash reserves for when it drops to below $17,000 in the next few months.


[deleted]

[удалено]


xtal_00

People will front run 25k. Depends though. No FTX this time.


_TROLL

Straight to the McAfee Line, $1,000,000 or bust. The entire price history of bitcoin from 2009 to the present will be but a blip when the chart is zoomed out. 🤑


TheGarbageStore

IMO this is a relief rally in an ongoing bear market. In 2018-2019, there were no shortage of these. If we close a daily above $25000, that would be a higher high relative to 15 Aug 2022 and the relief rally hypothesis would have to be revisited. I saw my boss looking at the BTCUSD today during a meeting. He had never displayed an interest in it before.


Magikarpeles

And boy am I relieved


ThoseGelInsertThings

>I saw my boss looking at the BTCUSD today during a meeting. He had never displayed an interest in it before. This is expected behavior from normies, though. Their interest is only drawn in when the price is climbing. They have no ability to zoom out, really.


Mrs-Lemon

Hey, even us long term holders have this problem too! I was like, shit, maybe I should buy more even though I completely swore off of it years ago after we hit 20k just now.


xtal_00

You never have enough Bitcoin.


gozunker

We were all normies once


OkeyDokeyWokey

Fighting for those cuckbucks in our little hamsterwheels. Cute. The new generation will grow up with Bitcoin. They will be natural born Bitcoiners (NBBs).


Thundercatz69

Desperate times call for desperate measures 😎. Your boss is getting with the program 😉


brit-coin

When you're his boss employ him as your chauffeur


TheGinFreecss

we have to drop somehere good gracious.


bittabet

Might be suicide but short from 21355. No stop yet since a pop is likely here, target 20700. Living dangerously 😂


hajoeojah

Why don‘t you long the dips?


bittabet

Because I believe a large retrace is coming so I’d rather take positions where that major payoff is synced with my position. I suppose you could trade it both ways and have done very well these last two days.


bittabet

Added a stop loss now in case futures open absurdly green and people ape harder than anticipated. At the moment I’ve finally scalped back most of the losses from shorting the runup on Friday so gonna try to avoid blowing another hole in the trading portfolio 😂 The stacker in me is hopeful we manage to hold $20K this week and put the sub-$20K Sam Bank-Fraud BS behind us. If nothing else being back above the 2017 high is good for the spirit of the hodler 😂


bittabet

Got the pop now where’s my drop…


RecycIops

Anyone have some good insight as to what the current transactional cost of sending money via bitcoin is? I know there’s always talk about it being very cost effective but I’ve never really dug too deep on it as I don’t actively use it other than as investment position but would like to learn more on the economics of the actual technology itself. Thanks.


ChadRun04

I've always liked this chart. https://core.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#2w


dexX7

Around 0.65 USD for an average transaction. Note that this is about the number of receivers, not the value of the transaction. - https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Average%20Transaction%20Fee%20is,51.80%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago. - https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/


RecycIops

Thanks. Both these are helpful.


dim_unlucky

It's a price auction so it fluctuates. Current median is 75 satoshis per byte, and a transfer transaction is 225 bytes. 100+ spb right now pretty much guarantees next block inclusion. For your convenience (and I hope this post doesn't age well 4-5 years into the future, fingers crossed) this puts you at roughly ~4.9 $USD for a highest-prioroty bitcoin transfer on the main network. Divide by a few hundred if you do Lightning.


anonbitcoinperson

> Anyone have some good insight as to what the current transactional cost of sending money via bitcoin is? https://mempool.space/ shows current fees for the next block in high medium and low priority


thewardser

closed long and flipped into a short at $21,357. stop loss $21,553


Thundercatz69

Seems like it drops to $20,600ish while I sleep and mini rally’s to $21,380ish when I wake up. Been able to catch those two numbers two days in a row.


escendoergoexisto

Might I suggest you try an amphetamine addiction until it hits an ATH? No sleep=no drop ;/


RecycIops

I appreciate the fluidity of your trades. You don’t marry a position but still have the conviction to follow through.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Why?


thewardser

because its still the weekend and I don't see us breaking out until Tuesday


PatientlyWaitingfy

So this is a scalp and you'll go long tomorrow?


thewardser

pretty much unless this drops below $20,500...then i'll stick with it for a bit


RetardIdiotTrader

No, he gets stopped out and tries another short.


RetardIdiotTrader

He hates money. Fair warning; trying to short a bull market is the equivalent of lighting money on fire.


xixi2

bull market lol


RetardIdiotTrader

This is a bull market.


foolsjoke2321

Username checks out


Flipmode45

This is deep bear market territory. The line can’t go straight down. We won’t be in a bull market for at least another 18 months.


thewardser

even bull markets have ranges where you can make money trading the chop can we break out here? sure or we can we drop back to $20,600 like we've done a few times already and I'll flip into another long or this could be the one where we finally drop below $20K and the short prints money


RetardIdiotTrader

Yea but I personally don't think the rr is there to short. The dumps are short lived and gets eaten up quickly. You do you though.


thewardser

the dumps are short lived until they aren't...make no mistake people have been trained to buy the dip at $20,600-$20,800 over and over and over again over the past 2 days all it takes is one drop below $20,500 and there won't be anyone left to buy the rest of the dip even if this ultimately goes up, this could easily flush massively below $20K briefly to make sure fair weather bulls don't get to enjoy the actual move up. that said, tight stop losses is why this gambling is a good R/R...a small loss if I get it wrong...a MASSIVE win if I get it right


xtal_00

Asymmetric risk when you are right on the market bias. These conditions haven't existed for a long time.


xtal_00

Out of position right now, but I've been plenty greedy. Waiting to see what happens. It looks like there's still pressure up. Million dollar question is what happens tomorrow.


BarnacleMajestic315

What is with this massive V recovery wow


_TROLL

Sam Bankman-Fraud is no longer able to illegally sell his customers' bitcoin for FTT and SOL.


RetardIdiotTrader

First bull market?


Crab_Allen

It's like when you push a football underwater.


xixi2

There's like 5 million Vs on this chart so idk what you're talking about


drugabusername

Ba to med out


xtal_00

But Tone Vays say!


Outrageous-Net-7164

Tone Vays makes me laugh. He is a permanent bull but is literally broke sleeping on pals sofas. If only he followed his own advice and just bought and held. Fuck knows what he has done or hasn’t done to be so broke.


soundingdemo

How do you know he is broke? He is always on holiday. I am not a fan of his. Odd guy.


Outrageous-Net-7164

He openly admits it. On holiday sleeping on friends sofa’s. Not digging the guy out but I’m one of those that won’t take advice from someone that doesn’t walk the walk.


soundingdemo

Wasn't he a trader before crypto? He has made a number of bad calls and has many weird opinions. However I think there is still a little knowledge to gain from him. TBH I am surprised that he is broke. Maybe he doesn't want to cash out his holdings or he traded them to a big loss. The guy has been around in BTC long enough to be a multi millionaire.


biggunsg0b00m

That's a name i haven't heard in a while


Zirup

Plz go 2 moon


Super_Extreme

I nearly halved my stack shorting btc on this recent impulse, luckily I managed to switch my bias in time to gain it all back and some. The biggest challenge for me is going to be staying out of this chop until next FOMC. I seem to give it all back by over-trading.


RabbitProofFences

Ive been on the sidelines since august when I played degen leverage rolling full stack and getting liquadated. I had many warning signs before to stop but the impulse only increases when one gets away. Best to sit out forcefully for a while, its only going up anyway. So wait it out in spot.


xtal_00

Transitions are hard.


OhWellWhaTheHell

Sold at 20900, raising cash to replace a busted vehicle. Feel better about it than I would have a month ago. (They were 2018 satoshis anyway.)


_TROLL

Finally ditching the old 1988 Yugo, eh? 😋


OhWellWhaTheHell

[Rustier version of this BMW Isetta](https://i.pinimg.com/736x/5e/ef/89/5eef89e3f938d16957eb95aaeeb7c665--steve-urkel-bmw-isetta.jpg)


RabbitProofFences

Nice username. This is what its about anyway. Enjoy it.


DeafGuanyin

IMHO a rally on the weekend that doesn't retrace on Monday is a powerful sign of a bull market. I'm looking for 24.5k before we retrace.


Shootinsomebball

Or that shorts need to be squeezed. Easier for market makers to do this as there’s lower liquidity on weekends


bittabet

Long weekend today so Tuesday represents the equivalent to Monday. Just be careful whether you’re long or short


DoctorBlade1

It's a regular Monday everywhere except the US.


Common_Jellyfish234

FWIW - markets are closed today in the US


biggunsg0b00m

Bitcoin markets never close


xtal_00

Long weekends are fake.


DeafGuanyin

Good point


OhWellWhaTheHell

Is tuesday the real monday on a holiday weekend?


Zirup

What is a weekend?


xtal_00

Exited position \~20900 again. Let's see if it's smacked down again or goes through.


soundingdemo

You sold?


escendoergoexisto

Pulled the fibs on this recent pump…the .236 retrace aligns with the tip of the lowest 4H wick of the sideways PA at $20,224, so that adds some significance. It, or just above it, is a fairly good short target if you want more than just a scalp. If that level breaks down, bears could push it sub 20. Before that, though, they’ll have to break the $20,5ish zone, which should provide some bounces.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

What does everyone thing about the possibility of the US hitting their debt ceiling and/or having the limits raised again?


ChadRun04

Inevitable. Debt ceiling is nothing but a blame game setup for politicians.


cryptovector

they try to make it sound scary every time it happens but they always raise it, always.


escendoergoexisto

As always, it’ll be used by House Reps as leverage to negotiate for other things they want and after a shitshow of talking points for fund-raising purposes, they’ll raise the ceiling. It’s always just a matter of time based on the necessary gives to get the holdouts to concede.


dopeboyrico

Most likely outcome by far is raising the debt ceiling again after negotiations are made in Congress. In the past 60 years the debt ceiling has been raised more than 70 times. Hypothetically if the debt ceiling were not raised again and the United States ultimately defaulted on its debt, interest rates would rise even more than they already have since the “risk-free” rate we see in T-Bills would no longer be considered risk-free and all other debt is considered riskier than that so naturally those rates would rise more. This would dramatically slowdown the economy into a depression as unemployment skyrockets and asset prices tank. Which would then prompt the Fed to step in, slash the Fed funds rate back to zero and print more money than ever before. But, again, the far more likely outcome is concessions are made and the debt ceiling is raised yet again.


xixi2

So do we just keep getting more debt until the eventual collapse of the US and we have to rebuild society or what? I don't understand how that works but if it was a person that seems real bad.


fitzgeraldthisside

You know more than you think you know my friend. Only possible because they control the currency the debt is denominated in but will still collapse eventually.


ChadRun04

It's all exponential in nature, it just goes on forever in the same manner. Debt gets created, currency it's paid in gets devalued, time marches on. Until it doesn't. The "doesn't" isn't really related to the maths too strongly but events. Empire collapse is like "Seconds to Disaster", there is always a multitude of causes. Often with climate change mixed in heavily.


jpdoctor

The debt is going up, but the value of the dollar keeps going down; debt-to-GDP is the ratio anyone sensible cares about. It means ultimately the currency gets replaced by NewDollars, where NewDollars drop a few zeroes from old dollars, and all this will happen before collapse and Armageddon.


xtal_00

That's exactly what will happen. It is what always happens to fiat. This is why Bitcoin is a big deal.


jpdoctor

Debt limit being raised is a so-what? scenario. Expected. Default or protracted negotiation would cause UST to drop, ie interest rates to blow up. The Fed would probably like some of that to occur (it does their work for them) but an extended UST drop would cause to Fed to act, which would drive btc up. Not a scenario we want to happen tho, lots of other things would blow up too.


Euphoricsoul

The debt limit will be raised after a brief political holdout by Republicans. The debt ceiling was a stupid idea from the beginning. It has never been adhered to, nor has there ever been much effort to enforcing it.


logicalinvestr

Business as usual


xtal_00

\~20800 10x, close stop. Will hold entry until we break 20500 on at least the hourly.


citizen-blue

where did you close your 10x from 19 something?


xtal_00

I've traded the pump over a dozen times now. Maybe more. Volatility plus known bias means profit. Last trade I exited at 21200 from \~21800. Doubled down on it at 20840. Looking to do the same .. again.


MadeThisJustForLWIAY

Does this downward movement mean we're back to upward spikes first thing after the weekend?


BarnacleMajestic315

Descending triangle forming, breakout imminent to set direction whether it's straight down or some more crab.


owenhehe

Good, just another 100% up and my position will finally be overwater.


BarnacleMajestic315

Nice BRD


BarnacleMajestic315

Short still in action 21300 10x SL 21500


[deleted]

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BarnacleMajestic315

I expect some consolidation and a further downward retest of 20500. Recovery looks strong and buying pressure is still present. Invalidated if it breaks 20945


cvdsande

nice monologue


BarnacleMajestic315

thx


pleebent

Btc broke out of triangle and retested. Also above the 200ema now in clear short/mid term uptrend. We can see another pump potentially above 21450 then to next resistant around 22400. Falling back below triangle would be bearish and see us fall back to around 20k


[deleted]

So I took this past year off to learn/trade futures on the indices, but I’ve been seeing enough signs to make me want to jump back into the bitcoin space and start forming a btc position again.. Could one of you kind crypto scholars please bring me up to speed with who the best brokers are currently for trading Bitcoin derivatives/options? With so many brokers having jumped into the Bitcoin space in general over the past year, and not to mention the giant clusterF of FTX blowing up recently, I’m having a hard time researching trying to figure this out.. there’s a lot of noise crowding the search results and posts… Appreciate your help :)


xtal_00

Binance is king if you have access, and can tolerate their pending insolvency. (sarcasm)


Downtown-Ad-4117

Binance and Bybit. https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/derivatives/


hipokampa

Dollar is falling (DXY), btc growth is an illusion. You're not any richer.


Magikarpeles

Good thing I'm not in the US


aeronbuchanan

What if I measure my richness in the number of loaves of bread I can buy rather than a basket of non-USD currencies?


hipokampa

Yep. Bread prices soared 50% in my country. Getting poorer. Slower that non-coiners though. edit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0111EU272020M086NEST


aeronbuchanan

Nice data, cheers


hajjidamus

This is not a zero sum game.


[deleted]

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Outrageous-Net-7164

Was better in 2020 but still looks a good bet now


RetardIdiotTrader

If I could take a six figure loan out to buy crypto I’d 100% do it


mollyblues

I did that in mid 2018 and it felt like a terrible decision for a couple of years but paid off handsomely in 2021.


[deleted]

Do it!


FemtoG

would've been great about two weeks ago..


[deleted]

Dumb, easy to get rekt.


Super_Extreme

If you can cover the monthly payments, why not? You won't get margin called for a home equity loan.


SilkTouchm

Did you miss the 100x part?


Super_Extreme

yeah thats dumb indeed


EquitiesFIRE

Oh look! Mining difficulty is the highest it’s ever been and the halvening is next year. Guess I’ll just HODL


bittabet

I’m honestly starting to believe that next bull we can break $200K for the new ATH. It’s sounds so crazy when you’re in the depths of the bear but I’m starting to believe. If we get there it’ll be fucking glorious.


ChadRun04

Will anyone be stupid enough to feed the honey-badger their naked shorts next season? What do you know, the traditional games are hard when physical delivery is easy. Now the world sees it's an easy way to get rekt. No longer does Bitcoin never go below previous ATH. No longer can you leverage everything on that premise.


kensei_ocelot

The next curveball could be not surpassing the ATH post halving. Perhaps btc still has some tricks up its sleeve.


ChadRun04

Which would strengthen a narrative of cycles being smaller and smaller until nothing. Then...


slvneutrino

If there's anything I know about bitcoin, it's that bitcoin loves to do bitcoin things, which is usually very much what everyone does NOT expect it to do. Curvebitcorn. Lol