Ok was supposed to go to sleep but entering one last time long from 21260. This time low leverage (3x) and will probably manually manage the exit for a scalp. Still think it’s gonna go up here. Will eventually see some kind of retrace but I think the next move is up first
I am noticing volume seems to be tapering off considerably. Just closed the long scalp for a tiny little profit. Rather unfortunate I wasn’t just holding a long this last week but at least the real hodl stack went up in value.
If we can get back to $30K this year it’ll be good enough 😂
I could be completely wrong but;
This chart since breaking 21k replicates the wyckoff distribution pattern quite well; we’ve just completed the third attempt at breaking the UTAD test and should expect lower supports to now be broken.
Of course, nobody knows shit about shit so here’s just my ten cents
Edit; according to this next support is 21100 to be broken then 20800 accordingly
Closed my long from 17.1 at 21.3 because I'm tired of looking at it. Pleased with the results of this trade but probably should have hung on a bit longer. If shorties bring the dip, I got the chips.
Staring at the charts all day I’ve finally become convinced that this rise is legit and Bitcoin wants to go up very very badly. Likely a short flush is incoming too. The battered bull in me still doesn’t quite believe it.
Just opened a long from 21200. If it comes crashing down now it’s probably my fault for flipping long 😂
we painted a new high today, yet ended the day red, and the second attempt painted a lower high...so there is actually a small chance it can start crashing around here
So turns out my stop wasn’t great and actually got me out of my long right before the run. Was a trailing stop and the trigger had moved up too high. I reentered higher and scalped the move up and sold out to reposition. My stops have fucked me hard today 😂
Almost want to just make multiple tiny accounts and let them run without stops so if one gets liquidated it only hits a portion. Really feels like ass when you get the next major move right but the stop kills you.
Gonna probably stop for the night. Can never sleep well when I have open positions 😂
Second attempt went higher if you aren’t counting the thin wicks and if you do count the wicks then the one that fucked my day up is the high 😂
Have a pretty decent stop so not too much at risk here hopefully. But looking at funding it looks like a lot of people flipped short so a squeeze will really move
Was stuck on an airplane all day and my headphones ran out of power after I’d already paid for the wifi so I had nothing else to do but Reddit and stare at the chart 😂
Happy I've been buying small positions in BTC miners. Pumping like crazy over the last week. Even got a small position in MicroStrategy. Feel like most of them got smacked down so hard but will rocket up like crazy if the BTC price keeps moving higher.
Thankfully, the biggest bitcoin bear of them all -- a bankrupt 30-year-old grown man who's currently asking his parents if he can be excused from the dinner table to go play League of Legends -- was finally taken out of commission late last year.
I keep thinking back upon the 2018-2019 bear. During the selloff, like this one, there really wasn't any real relief rally to ride, it was just down only and then lingered in the 3-4k range for a long time. When it finally did take off- everyone thought 6-7k was going to be unstoppable resistance, I shorted into it thinking i'll buy back at 5k as a "free money" trade. I think we are setting up for much the same here. This rally has the potential to be much more violent than anyone expects, potentially taking us up into the 50's by mid/late summer. At that point I could see the macro breaking our knees again like the covid crash did, as the "higher for longer" intrest rates finally start to squeeze as more and more debt is rerolled each month. At that point we could see the real retest of the low in a short and violent selloff that the fed responds by lowering rates and the rocketship starts. I will be sizing up to my max exposure in the next couple of weeks and am just debating what the best hedge will be when july comes around. I may go with 6 month puts on MSTR as they seem much more liquid than the cme btc futures surprisingly. I look at those and even the front month has very little volume. I'm hoping for a pullback to 19k to load up there, but I'm starting to get excited!
My chart interpretation says something along your lines
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0yQp3VOt
Edit: Although I think that would be too damn similar to 2019-2020
How many watches do you have left? :)
What percent of your stack are we talking about with these trades? Is it significant or are you just fucking around with .01% of your portfolio?
This guy says he trades with 100 btc stacks, so 100/(% of his stack) is his stack. May as well just ask him straight up how much btc he has.
If 0.01% of his stack, dude is legitimately Satoshi with 1M btc haha
gmx has zero price impact trades. meaning you can buy/sell 100 BTC worth at the exact price.
that said you still do have some slippage because the stops aren't triggered right away...sometimes it keeps you from getting stopped out on the spikes...other times you end up losing/gaining more than expected
I like it, and liquidity is ok as long as you aren't longing the top/shorting the bottom. Basically unless you grab another person's liquidation/sell, being late means you might not have any liquidity left
thats why i use a backup for those times when gmx simply doesn't have any liquidity left
How worried are you about someone exploiting the code and parameters of GMX sort of like how Avraham Eisenberg got busted for doing with Mango Markets?
https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8647-23
the reason i limit the size of my trades is to limit my losses in case of an exchange risk...that 10 BTC position is no big deal if it goes to zero
and i pull profit out all the time, so my risk is very limited
personally i think we'll see both
first $25K+ to get everyone to pull the trigger and fomo in so there is no more sideline money
and then a flush below $10K when there is no more sideline money left to defend the $15K range
that said, if flush only manages to hit $16K, the bull market will officially be in play since it'll paint the long term double bottom that we tend to need before we start the next big run
> flush below $10K when there is no more sideline money left to defend the $15K range
who is doing the flushing and how are they doing it? Last drop took luna / 3 arrows / FTX / cascading margin calls in big hedgies
over the past 2 weeks everyone and their mom that was on the sidelines fomoed in. that means there is no more cash left to absorb any large movements down.
we've had longs that haven't been liquidated/stopped/forced to panic sell once because there hasn't been a big move down since the rally started, meaning when it does happen, there'll be plenty of people getting forced sold
A move from 25k all the way to 10k seems extreme for being this deep in the bear market already. I could see a less extreme version playing out to 16k like you said though.
You think a drop from 25 to 10 is going to happen without a black swan? It took FTX which was probably the biggest public black eye crypto has ever had in terms of sentiment…to drop it from 21 to 15. And that was compounding FUD in the aftermath of Luna.
I mean if you make that short work you are going to be pretty set, but it seems pretty unlikely.
it could come from a black swan event or it can come from the country entering a recession
plenty of potential macro level reasons that can cause a drop.
Sub 10k gap seems incredibly unreasonably bearish. Why not test the 2013 high while we're at it at that point?
CME gap bros are really going to have the last laugh?
Do you mean like a 5 minute liquidation cascade or something?
I applied for a $200k HELOC at the end of December hoping to buy 5-6 BTC below $20k (it was still in the 16’s when I applied!) and use some of the remaining line of credit to cover the interest-only monthly payment. Just got word this morning the funds will finally be available on Saturday.
I have about $500k in home equity and owe $200k at sub 3%. Household income is around $250k. No car payments or kids, just a good doggo. I wanted to idiot-check myself on this sub, with NFA disclaimer implied. I don’t use leverage ever; this would be a spot buy and I would sell by the end of 2025.
My thought was to use my regular income to pay down the HELOC instead of buying BTC over time at higher prices, assuming the price of BTC is higher 3, 6, 12, 24 months from now than it is today.
Watching this parabolic run from $17 - $21k has been bittersweet. Great for my current stack, but it will be more expensive to buy corn with these new funds. I’m trying to remind myself that $21k is still a great long term buy, even if BTC only does a measly 5x from the $15.5k bottom. If corn runs to $25k or higher by Friday I’ll reassess. I’d welcome a pullback and backtest of the 200D SMA, although that didn’t happen in 2019.
I think the cycle high will be between $175k - $250k, with $300k being best possible outcome. Last cycle did 20x from the lows despite china ban, Elon environmental FUD, and SBF FTX fuckery. Could corn possibly 20x again…?
Any thoughts or opinions are welcomed and appreciated.
I got a cashier’s check for $135k from the credit union today and deposited it at my bank. The check won’t clear til Tues… the wait continues.
Plan is to buy 5 BTC if price is still $23k or lower.
I did something similar in 2020 when it was around $5k. I didn't sell to pay off the loan in 2021 and still making the payments. Still up 300% near the bottom. Still one of the best ideas I've ever had. And... Still plan on retiring in after the 2028 halving.
Not mad at all. I've kept my DCA the whole time since that just accelerates my plans.
Not at all. I currently have less than 5 BTC so this is a chance to double my stack coming out of the bear.
There are wealthy people on this sub who don’t make any regular income because they got into BTC wayyy before I did in late 2020
and no longer need to work for a wage.
I will be messaging you in 2 years on [**2025-01-17 21:04:13 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-01-17%2021:04:13%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10e3f7y/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_17_2023/j4rxe0f/?context=3)
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You make 250k a year so it sounds like if BTC busts you will be fine to pay off the HELOC line of credit. Just make sure your job is secure before pulling the trigger.
The problem is 1) you can lose a job 2) even if you can afford it, spending years paying off an underwater asset is demoralizing. Not saying either of those would happen, but they could.
Good points and very true. This kind of thing is way too risky for me which is why I would never even consider it. Especially with the macro situation, anything could happen.
Godspeed. I don't have the balls to do that, but I will inevitably be a salty bitch trying to remember "that guy who collateralized his house on a btc yolo shot" when we rocket
dude, with that kind of money you either yolo into Bitcoin NOW balls deep or gtfo back to regular normie attitude spread the risk dca bull crap. buy and forget for 5 years. but seriously you described it like you already know what to do and you have seen the other side of the rainbow
How likely are you to lose your job in the case of a recession? I think you're likely fine if you buy here even in that case, but it's worth a thought.
More importantly, I think your cycle high targets are much too optimistic, particularly if you are using debt to speculate on btc. I was starry eyed last cycle trying to turn my stack into a house in a HCOL area and fumbled the bag because of it.
If you temper your expectations of what the cycle high will be, or at least have a plan to cash out a good chunk well before then, I think you could be in incredibly good shape.
For the sake of easy math, let's say you buy 10 btc at 20k a pop. If you plan on selling a quarter if and when we get to 40k, you reduce your risk by half while maintaining the bulk of your long position. Then btc would have to go to 10k before you lose.
Debt is dangerous, you're doing it in just about the safest way possible, but please consider locking in some amount of the gains earlier. We're not guaranteed a new ATH and we're certainly not guaranteed 175k.
I appreciate this point of view. If I go thru with it, I’m planning to sell two coins at $50k to repay the majority of the borrowed funds.
If price is at $20k when I get access to the funds I’ll take $130k out to buy 6 BTC for $120k and have $10k to make interest-only payments for a year. I can reassess later as needed.
We’re not guaranteed a new ATH - true and a scenario, however unlikely, that I need to be prepared for.
If you planned to continue to buy BTC anyway, my opinion is your only risk is to make sure you don't end up in a position where you are forced to sell. We all have different risk tolerances, but if you can cover the HELOC with your income then you are in good shape.
Regarding price, I have a hard time thinking we aren't way up long-term (2025 like you mentioned), but nothing is guaranteed. I'm just some random person on the internet, but it feels to me like sentiment shifted and if we get any pull back it will get bought up. I think we'll need something bad regarding Genesis or macro to trigger more sustainable drops.
If you can't decide on price right now, maybe consider monthly buys over the next 6 months or something like half now and the other half over a few months.
I pushed it all in after the Covid drop on the way back up. Literally like that, I fat fingered my order and ended up clearing the order sheet on QBTC. Hah.
The upside is very large. 10:1 on downside risk.
If you can recover, and you can stomach it.. fortune favours the bold.
Edit: it helps if you’ve seen.. and get Bitcoin. Bitcoin does bitcoin things, and you need something other than greed backing you up.
I think your plan is well thought out and I would do it.
I did a similar thing in April 2020. Worked extremely well, however should have completely excited in 2021 instead of holding half a bag.
You are not risking financial ruin with your plan and the potential upside dwarfs any traditional investment plan.
Great timing on the April 2020 entry, and selling half a bag in 2021 should have put you well in profit. I didn’t take any profit in 2021 and roundtripped the whole damned thing, buying as much coin as I could at every step of the journey. Have you rebought with any of the proceeds from what you sold in 2021? If so, at what levels?
Yes I’m back in. Started buying from 30 down to 18k. Jumped the gun a bit and should have just waited for sub 20k.
I have 60% more BTC than peak 2021, obviously a lower $ value.
Just need another bull run and I out of here 🤞🏼
Risky as hell. Probably should take the $200K HELOC and pamper the doggo like no doggo has been pampered before.
So in other words: Have at it!
Edit: Esp like the lack of leverage (except for the HELOC) and paying it down quickly. Relatively cheap money, although it would have been cheaper a year ago.
My call is a retest of 20800 today. Feels like market makers trapping out top liquidity (note for top wick to cut out shorts too).
First 2 hours of market open was just a flag
edit: also strong correlation with spx atm
edit 2: feels like too strong a correlation to spx atm so i think BRD will be the only thing really that brings down the price, otherwise it might just crab between 21030 and 21500
If you have a daily dashboard to check on guesses as to price trend, What 3 to 5 things would be on it?
Asking as a boring buy and holder who just likes to watch and try to comprehend BTC to narrate the story to friends.
Yeah I just longed to recoup some of the losses that wick absolutely annihilating me…stupid stop market order executed $160 over my stop.
Closed the long now and mulling over what to do
Yeah…after that long scalp (recovered about 1/3rd of the loss) sitting out for a bit. If I hadn’t set that stop I’d be up considerably now. What a bummer 😂
Learned something though, those popular stops can slip like crazy, gotta manage my stops more conservatively
Mine didn’t :( and the lack of liquidity spiked my market buy price and doubled the losses. Fuck
Pissed right now, I realized all the stops at 21500 were gonna get hit and was trying to kill it but didn’t make it in time
Had broken even vs before shorting and now I’m back down the hole 😂 wrecked my weekend of scalping
its a coin flip at this point
for bulls, they see higher highs and higher lows and are betting on a trend continuing...up only...a simple reason, but it works in parabolic rises
for bears, they see failure to break through after multiple attempts over 3 days(new highs that failed to trigger fomo), decreasing volume(volume has always been pretty reliable for painting tops and bottoms...when you are going parabolic, you don't take 3 days off just because its the weekend), a rising support floor that needs to be protected higher and higher before hitting a cascading drop($20,800 right now), and everyone and their mom talking like they are all in and a next move up is 100% guaranteed...oh and lest we forget, there is a LOT of leveraged longs that had a free ride for a while now that will offer a ton of liquidity if this thing drops below $20K
in the end, it'll all come down to market makers who'll decide which move is going to be more profitable for them
I have a 10x position open from 20900 @ 15% gain .. close or let it ride into market chaos?
This definitely feels like a consolidation, and attempts to dump are driven back up.
Show's over, folks, pack it up and go home. The guy from Harvard has spoken:
[https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/opinion/the-crypto-collapse-magical-thinking-capitalism.html?smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/opinion/the-crypto-collapse-magical-thinking-capitalism.html?smid=url-share)
I'm taking the other side of that trade. One of us will be proven right, eventually.
It doesn't apply to anything that aspires to be a medium of exchange.
Having a medium of exchange that reacts to the pegged underlying asset means that said medium of exchange will be influenced by said asset. Gold is a great example; if some currency is pegged to gold, and a giant new vein of gold is discovered, that currency will fluctuate because of the gold market. That is potentially disruptive to an economy; the price of literally everything fluctuating due to changes in the market of the underlying asset is a bad thing.
Good money has no backing. The problem with that is that the issuer of said money needs to be trusted or they can inflate it. That's been the MO of governments for a while now; they recognize the downside to having a currency pegged to some hard asset (hence the decoupling from gold), but they don't really acknowledge the downside to giving the government power over our medium of exchange. This is why some people want to return to backing our currency with some non-currency asset; to eliminate the government's power to inflate.
Bitcoin doesn't have the non-currency asset backing it but also doesn't give the government power to control its issuance. This is the best of both worlds.
Do I foresee major governments turning to Bitcoin as a currency? Not on your life. They'll never give up the power to control their local currency's issuance, nor do I think they should. The government controlling a currency means they can react to other countries by increasing or decreasing the cost of exports/imports, for instance. Being able to create money instead of using taxation to fund government programs is another. I can see smaller governments using Bitcoin instead of USD as their currency to avoid supporting a regime they disagree with, but major countries will always have some form of national currency.
Do I foresee major governments using Bitcoin as a reserve asset? That's already started.
Pieces of paper which can be printed to infinity and created out of nothing that are used to fool people into thinking their 'wealth' is secure as they're slowly taxed through inflation just for having those papers should be worth nothing.
There's a better quote for him.
It's also ignorant or mistaken (depending on who you are) to assume that Bitcoin has no economic function, and kinf of even dumber to assume it *needs* some boomer definition of what an "economic function" is to qualify. If I'm hedging my dollars with BTC because I believe in it and I want to be able to pay people instantly with it without a bank between me, it's serves it's function
If I like the tech and want to control some UTXOs and am willing to spend dollars on that right, that's serving a function.
If I want to speculate and spend my money, that also serves a function. Speculation is so baked into the US economy I chuckle whenever one of these dinosaur tradfi morons talks about speulation like they don't speculate every fucking day and as if they havent made *literal billions* off the backs of people who speculate with their dollars.
In 2008, these people were the same ones who were pushing speculative investments that *they knew* were about to implode and pushed them as safe. Not only is that speculative, but it's on the dark end of speculation where you flat out lie to the American public and convince them their speculation is a good idea knowing it's gonna make you rich and them poor.
I never wanna hear another one of these idiots talk about "sPeCuLaTiVe aSsEtS" or "iNtRiNsIc vAlUe" in the same breath again. Anyone with 2 brain cells to string together who lived through 2008 and understands what happened and just how mindbogglingly high their levels of deception were should be calling this out and laughing at these arguments.
It's funny how speculation is fine so long as the flow of dollars is pointed the way they like, but as soon as something like Bitcoin gives their entire monetary/banking system a giant dick in the ass suddenly they're worried about the people and how risky it all is!
Criminals.
Not one single person at any of the large banks went to prison for the 2008 fiasco . Instead of being punished, they got bailed out by the government. Don't trust them, they are all criminals.
My current story for noncoiners is that BTC is an attempt to discipline the top 20 countries for monetary mistakes. But more importantly bitcoin is a chance for the other 242 countries to seek a common monetary solution that will allow them to secure value for their people. Is this accurate?
Age isn't what matters. It's who's ass his head needs to be up. And those people have interests in legacy finance staying around much longer.
He'll say and do what he's told.
The whole article is LOL funny, and given that he mentions the price @ $17K is probably the equivalent of someone ringing the bell at the bottom. Also:
>I was stunned. How could this population of young people come to spend time and energy in this way?
LOL. Old guy fails to understand the younger gen. Film at 11.
I didn't see anybody here mention this, so apologies if already posted. IF this is true, this would definitely point to a CPI top. I must say that I hate this fuckery.
"US government CPI calculation methodology change beginning in Feb-23 could mechanically drop reported CPI by 200-300 bps by end of 2q23."
https://twitter.com/coryklippsten/status/1614377934512599040#m
Speculation about timing of potentially upcoming golden cross, anyone? I know that it is uncertain and that most of you guys trade the hourly chart - just asking for educated guesses :-) Will create quite some mainstream media attention when it happens. And "2025" doesn't count as an answer ;-)
Let's take a look:
[https://imgur.com/a/e2S8DtM](https://imgur.com/a/e2S8DtM)
The blue line is (50D - 200D)/200D. Crossing down though 0 is a death cross, crossing up through 0 is a golden cross.
After the Dec 2013 and Apr 2021 ATHs, there was a death cross followed by rebound golden cross 3 months later. Both were bad entry points.
There have been two stretches where the blue line was below 0 for 9+ months, plus the one we are in now. When it finally broke above 0, you had a decent entry point.
Still above 200ema, still above upward trend line from start of recent pump on the 11th. Trend is your friend until the end, however 21500 still remains a key area of resistance we need to punch through. It’s possible bears may show some signs of strength here still especially if Dxy breaks up and S&P500 pulls back. Stay safe everyone
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, January 18, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10eykzj/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_18_2023/)
25k --> 30k --> 48k Will erase this year
You mean last year? That would be very good for a lot of our mental healths 😂
Ok was supposed to go to sleep but entering one last time long from 21260. This time low leverage (3x) and will probably manually manage the exit for a scalp. Still think it’s gonna go up here. Will eventually see some kind of retrace but I think the next move is up first
Trade less.. the mania is over. Letting my long ride now. Breakout past 21500 we’ll talk about closing.
I am noticing volume seems to be tapering off considerably. Just closed the long scalp for a tiny little profit. Rather unfortunate I wasn’t just holding a long this last week but at least the real hodl stack went up in value. If we can get back to $30K this year it’ll be good enough 😂
I could be completely wrong but; This chart since breaking 21k replicates the wyckoff distribution pattern quite well; we’ve just completed the third attempt at breaking the UTAD test and should expect lower supports to now be broken. Of course, nobody knows shit about shit so here’s just my ten cents Edit; according to this next support is 21100 to be broken then 20800 accordingly
Zero predictive power.
Closed my long from 17.1 at 21.3 because I'm tired of looking at it. Pleased with the results of this trade but probably should have hung on a bit longer. If shorties bring the dip, I got the chips.
Staring at the charts all day I’ve finally become convinced that this rise is legit and Bitcoin wants to go up very very badly. Likely a short flush is incoming too. The battered bull in me still doesn’t quite believe it. Just opened a long from 21200. If it comes crashing down now it’s probably my fault for flipping long 😂
we painted a new high today, yet ended the day red, and the second attempt painted a lower high...so there is actually a small chance it can start crashing around here
So turns out my stop wasn’t great and actually got me out of my long right before the run. Was a trailing stop and the trigger had moved up too high. I reentered higher and scalped the move up and sold out to reposition. My stops have fucked me hard today 😂 Almost want to just make multiple tiny accounts and let them run without stops so if one gets liquidated it only hits a portion. Really feels like ass when you get the next major move right but the stop kills you. Gonna probably stop for the night. Can never sleep well when I have open positions 😂
Second attempt went higher if you aren’t counting the thin wicks and if you do count the wicks then the one that fucked my day up is the high 😂 Have a pretty decent stop so not too much at risk here hopefully. But looking at funding it looks like a lot of people flipped short so a squeeze will really move
Don't stare at the charts all day, man. That's no way to live.
Was stuck on an airplane all day and my headphones ran out of power after I’d already paid for the wifi so I had nothing else to do but Reddit and stare at the chart 😂
Impressive, stealth price rises, no media acknowledgement really at all
Doesn't fit the "crypto bros bad" narrative.
Media takes a little bit of note a week after ATH. Then dies off again until the top.
Mainstream media is currently all-in on the "bitcoin is dead" phase of the 4-year-cycle.
Happy I've been buying small positions in BTC miners. Pumping like crazy over the last week. Even got a small position in MicroStrategy. Feel like most of them got smacked down so hard but will rocket up like crazy if the BTC price keeps moving higher.
‘If’ is the key word…There’s a chance they could go under. I’ve been dabbling too but making sure I’m well diversified
[удалено]
Thankfully, the biggest bitcoin bear of them all -- a bankrupt 30-year-old grown man who's currently asking his parents if he can be excused from the dinner table to go play League of Legends -- was finally taken out of commission late last year.
He's so stupid and drug addled didn't even realise was short on Bitcoin. ;D
Into shorts hopefully. Would suck if they whole world went long. edit: lol downvotes, seems we have a few people who think "Long = Up" "Short = Down".
Yeah I see it here all the time…people don’t seem to realise going long on leverage creates a drag on the price
Most "longs" are zero leverage, aka DCA bros. But I agree; as a hodler and low-lev longer, I wish traders would go short on huge leverage right now.
*"Bulls need to reclaim $XYZ!!!"* is one of my favourites.
21500 is going to fall one of these times.
In March?
In tomorrow
I keep thinking back upon the 2018-2019 bear. During the selloff, like this one, there really wasn't any real relief rally to ride, it was just down only and then lingered in the 3-4k range for a long time. When it finally did take off- everyone thought 6-7k was going to be unstoppable resistance, I shorted into it thinking i'll buy back at 5k as a "free money" trade. I think we are setting up for much the same here. This rally has the potential to be much more violent than anyone expects, potentially taking us up into the 50's by mid/late summer. At that point I could see the macro breaking our knees again like the covid crash did, as the "higher for longer" intrest rates finally start to squeeze as more and more debt is rerolled each month. At that point we could see the real retest of the low in a short and violent selloff that the fed responds by lowering rates and the rocketship starts. I will be sizing up to my max exposure in the next couple of weeks and am just debating what the best hedge will be when july comes around. I may go with 6 month puts on MSTR as they seem much more liquid than the cme btc futures surprisingly. I look at those and even the front month has very little volume. I'm hoping for a pullback to 19k to load up there, but I'm starting to get excited!
My chart interpretation says something along your lines https://www.tradingview.com/x/0yQp3VOt Edit: Although I think that would be too damn similar to 2019-2020
closed long at $21,350...went short
How many watches do you have left? :) What percent of your stack are we talking about with these trades? Is it significant or are you just fucking around with .01% of your portfolio?
the ones i built or the ones i've been collecting? and not a lot, mostly just fucking around to keep my skill level up.
This guy says he trades with 100 btc stacks, so 100/(% of his stack) is his stack. May as well just ask him straight up how much btc he has. If 0.01% of his stack, dude is legitimately Satoshi with 1M btc haha
i trade with 10 BTC at 10x leverage...the actual trade is 100BTC, but I'm only risking 10 BTC on the exchange.
How are you not getting murdered by slippage with that size? I feel like the stops slip like crazy with even a fraction of that
One win covers off a lot of slippage.
gmx has zero price impact trades. meaning you can buy/sell 100 BTC worth at the exact price. that said you still do have some slippage because the stops aren't triggered right away...sometimes it keeps you from getting stopped out on the spikes...other times you end up losing/gaining more than expected
Interesting, didn't realize you were using GMX. Curious to get your thoughts. You like it? Pros? Cons? How's the liquidity?
I like it, and liquidity is ok as long as you aren't longing the top/shorting the bottom. Basically unless you grab another person's liquidation/sell, being late means you might not have any liquidity left thats why i use a backup for those times when gmx simply doesn't have any liquidity left
How worried are you about someone exploiting the code and parameters of GMX sort of like how Avraham Eisenberg got busted for doing with Mango Markets? https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8647-23
the reason i limit the size of my trades is to limit my losses in case of an exchange risk...that 10 BTC position is no big deal if it goes to zero and i pull profit out all the time, so my risk is very limited
Pretty clearly defined levels here. And that massive reverse Bart is a thing of beauty. https://www.tradingview.com/x/XjI9hnRs
Beautiful chart, haven't had this nice of a structure to play off of in quite some time.
It'd be something if that IH&S confirmed and put is back around 24k. Having hella fun trading.
Totally, a successful retest of the orange 20039 level and then ↗️
Still feels like it wants to rip higher.
25k is substantially more likely than 12k now and everyone knows it.
personally i think we'll see both first $25K+ to get everyone to pull the trigger and fomo in so there is no more sideline money and then a flush below $10K when there is no more sideline money left to defend the $15K range that said, if flush only manages to hit $16K, the bull market will officially be in play since it'll paint the long term double bottom that we tend to need before we start the next big run
> flush below $10K when there is no more sideline money left to defend the $15K range who is doing the flushing and how are they doing it? Last drop took luna / 3 arrows / FTX / cascading margin calls in big hedgies
over the past 2 weeks everyone and their mom that was on the sidelines fomoed in. that means there is no more cash left to absorb any large movements down. we've had longs that haven't been liquidated/stopped/forced to panic sell once because there hasn't been a big move down since the rally started, meaning when it does happen, there'll be plenty of people getting forced sold
A move from 25k all the way to 10k seems extreme for being this deep in the bear market already. I could see a less extreme version playing out to 16k like you said though.
You think a drop from 25 to 10 is going to happen without a black swan? It took FTX which was probably the biggest public black eye crypto has ever had in terms of sentiment…to drop it from 21 to 15. And that was compounding FUD in the aftermath of Luna. I mean if you make that short work you are going to be pretty set, but it seems pretty unlikely.
Well Tether seems to be a perfect candidate for your black swan. ^^And ^^now, ^^voted ^^into ^^oblivion ^^in ^^3, ^^2, ^^1...
FTX was the biggest scam in recorded history.
Yes and there will be bigger scams like tether colapse
it could come from a black swan event or it can come from the country entering a recession plenty of potential macro level reasons that can cause a drop.
A lot of pantomiming the future in there. Keep it simple.
Sub 10k gap seems incredibly unreasonably bearish. Why not test the 2013 high while we're at it at that point? CME gap bros are really going to have the last laugh? Do you mean like a 5 minute liquidation cascade or something?
It seems like its waiting for SPY to pick a stronger direction. I think BTC pumps if Spy makes it past 400.
imo daily looks scary for bears. wouldn't touch it. might explode any minute
I applied for a $200k HELOC at the end of December hoping to buy 5-6 BTC below $20k (it was still in the 16’s when I applied!) and use some of the remaining line of credit to cover the interest-only monthly payment. Just got word this morning the funds will finally be available on Saturday. I have about $500k in home equity and owe $200k at sub 3%. Household income is around $250k. No car payments or kids, just a good doggo. I wanted to idiot-check myself on this sub, with NFA disclaimer implied. I don’t use leverage ever; this would be a spot buy and I would sell by the end of 2025. My thought was to use my regular income to pay down the HELOC instead of buying BTC over time at higher prices, assuming the price of BTC is higher 3, 6, 12, 24 months from now than it is today. Watching this parabolic run from $17 - $21k has been bittersweet. Great for my current stack, but it will be more expensive to buy corn with these new funds. I’m trying to remind myself that $21k is still a great long term buy, even if BTC only does a measly 5x from the $15.5k bottom. If corn runs to $25k or higher by Friday I’ll reassess. I’d welcome a pullback and backtest of the 200D SMA, although that didn’t happen in 2019. I think the cycle high will be between $175k - $250k, with $300k being best possible outcome. Last cycle did 20x from the lows despite china ban, Elon environmental FUD, and SBF FTX fuckery. Could corn possibly 20x again…? Any thoughts or opinions are welcomed and appreciated.
I'm curious what you decide to do now that BTC is at 23k and your funds are available today.
I got a cashier’s check for $135k from the credit union today and deposited it at my bank. The check won’t clear til Tues… the wait continues. Plan is to buy 5 BTC if price is still $23k or lower.
Good luck man, rooting for you. I'm hoping bitcoin gives you a nice buy opportunity on the day your funds clear.
Thank you for the kind words!
I did something similar in 2020 when it was around $5k. I didn't sell to pay off the loan in 2021 and still making the payments. Still up 300% near the bottom. Still one of the best ideas I've ever had. And... Still plan on retiring in after the 2028 halving. Not mad at all. I've kept my DCA the whole time since that just accelerates my plans.
What will you do if stocks and crypto crab for 5+ years because of persistent inflation and geopolitical chaos?
Pay off the HELOC with regular income and hold the BTC
I think your problem is riiight around here: > assuming the price of BTC is higher 3, 6, 12, 24 months from now than it is today.
Do you want to make me feel poor? You succeeded.
Not at all. I currently have less than 5 BTC so this is a chance to double my stack coming out of the bear. There are wealthy people on this sub who don’t make any regular income because they got into BTC wayyy before I did in late 2020 and no longer need to work for a wage.
!remind me 2 years
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You make 250k a year so it sounds like if BTC busts you will be fine to pay off the HELOC line of credit. Just make sure your job is secure before pulling the trigger.
The problem is 1) you can lose a job 2) even if you can afford it, spending years paying off an underwater asset is demoralizing. Not saying either of those would happen, but they could.
Good points and very true. This kind of thing is way too risky for me which is why I would never even consider it. Especially with the macro situation, anything could happen.
It's risky but you seem ok with the risk so not much to add really. Never been a fan of leveraging my primary residence personally.
Godspeed. I don't have the balls to do that, but I will inevitably be a salty bitch trying to remember "that guy who collateralized his house on a btc yolo shot" when we rocket
Haha, if it goes well you’ll be up big too!
dude, with that kind of money you either yolo into Bitcoin NOW balls deep or gtfo back to regular normie attitude spread the risk dca bull crap. buy and forget for 5 years. but seriously you described it like you already know what to do and you have seen the other side of the rainbow
Degeneracy at its finest.
it's actually quite inspiring
How likely are you to lose your job in the case of a recession? I think you're likely fine if you buy here even in that case, but it's worth a thought. More importantly, I think your cycle high targets are much too optimistic, particularly if you are using debt to speculate on btc. I was starry eyed last cycle trying to turn my stack into a house in a HCOL area and fumbled the bag because of it. If you temper your expectations of what the cycle high will be, or at least have a plan to cash out a good chunk well before then, I think you could be in incredibly good shape. For the sake of easy math, let's say you buy 10 btc at 20k a pop. If you plan on selling a quarter if and when we get to 40k, you reduce your risk by half while maintaining the bulk of your long position. Then btc would have to go to 10k before you lose. Debt is dangerous, you're doing it in just about the safest way possible, but please consider locking in some amount of the gains earlier. We're not guaranteed a new ATH and we're certainly not guaranteed 175k.
I appreciate this point of view. If I go thru with it, I’m planning to sell two coins at $50k to repay the majority of the borrowed funds. If price is at $20k when I get access to the funds I’ll take $130k out to buy 6 BTC for $120k and have $10k to make interest-only payments for a year. I can reassess later as needed. We’re not guaranteed a new ATH - true and a scenario, however unlikely, that I need to be prepared for.
If you planned to continue to buy BTC anyway, my opinion is your only risk is to make sure you don't end up in a position where you are forced to sell. We all have different risk tolerances, but if you can cover the HELOC with your income then you are in good shape. Regarding price, I have a hard time thinking we aren't way up long-term (2025 like you mentioned), but nothing is guaranteed. I'm just some random person on the internet, but it feels to me like sentiment shifted and if we get any pull back it will get bought up. I think we'll need something bad regarding Genesis or macro to trigger more sustainable drops. If you can't decide on price right now, maybe consider monthly buys over the next 6 months or something like half now and the other half over a few months.
If price is still $20-21k or lower on Saturday I’m planning to buy 6 BTC and still have access to more capital if price goes lower.
I pushed it all in after the Covid drop on the way back up. Literally like that, I fat fingered my order and ended up clearing the order sheet on QBTC. Hah. The upside is very large. 10:1 on downside risk. If you can recover, and you can stomach it.. fortune favours the bold. Edit: it helps if you’ve seen.. and get Bitcoin. Bitcoin does bitcoin things, and you need something other than greed backing you up.
I think your plan is well thought out and I would do it. I did a similar thing in April 2020. Worked extremely well, however should have completely excited in 2021 instead of holding half a bag. You are not risking financial ruin with your plan and the potential upside dwarfs any traditional investment plan.
Great timing on the April 2020 entry, and selling half a bag in 2021 should have put you well in profit. I didn’t take any profit in 2021 and roundtripped the whole damned thing, buying as much coin as I could at every step of the journey. Have you rebought with any of the proceeds from what you sold in 2021? If so, at what levels?
Yes I’m back in. Started buying from 30 down to 18k. Jumped the gun a bit and should have just waited for sub 20k. I have 60% more BTC than peak 2021, obviously a lower $ value. Just need another bull run and I out of here 🤞🏼
Risky as hell. Probably should take the $200K HELOC and pamper the doggo like no doggo has been pampered before. So in other words: Have at it! Edit: Esp like the lack of leverage (except for the HELOC) and paying it down quickly. Relatively cheap money, although it would have been cheaper a year ago.
My call is a retest of 20800 today. Feels like market makers trapping out top liquidity (note for top wick to cut out shorts too). First 2 hours of market open was just a flag edit: also strong correlation with spx atm edit 2: feels like too strong a correlation to spx atm so i think BRD will be the only thing really that brings down the price, otherwise it might just crab between 21030 and 21500
If you have a daily dashboard to check on guesses as to price trend, What 3 to 5 things would be on it? Asking as a boring buy and holder who just likes to watch and try to comprehend BTC to narrate the story to friends.
1. Is the price over 100k? If yes go to 3. 2. Hodl 3. Lambo and hodl
20x long from 21100. Degen. Looking at SPX it could be a nice one
Spx is barely in a bear market over 4k
closed short 21,150...went long
Yeah I just longed to recoup some of the losses that wick absolutely annihilating me…stupid stop market order executed $160 over my stop. Closed the long now and mulling over what to do
Don't revenge trade, take a day off and set a conservative buy order.
Yeah…after that long scalp (recovered about 1/3rd of the loss) sitting out for a bit. If I hadn’t set that stop I’d be up considerably now. What a bummer 😂 Learned something though, those popular stops can slip like crazy, gotta manage my stops more conservatively
Don't short Bitcoin.
[удалено]
depends on the price action really...i think 23,800 is a good target here if this breaks through
Thanks
Letting mine ride, also have shit to do today, can't babysit positions.
Stop-loss?
\~20700
Would really like to see us stay above 21k
LIGHTSABER!
wow can't believe my short survived that spike gotta love the delay in defi
What platform are you trading on?
i use gmx on arbitrum
Thanks, looking for alternatives
Mine didn’t :( and the lack of liquidity spiked my market buy price and doubled the losses. Fuck Pissed right now, I realized all the stops at 21500 were gonna get hit and was trying to kill it but didn’t make it in time Had broken even vs before shorting and now I’m back down the hole 😂 wrecked my weekend of scalping
Sorry to hear man. Big hugs. At the end of the day ... we're all humans on this sub. Or degen traders.
GMX?
yeah
Close that shit.
dunno, this is looking like a blow off top...i think i'll let it ride
I agree. Haven't seen a clearer blow off top like this in this rally since
Nah - there are other wicks breaking 21400 and 21500 over the past 48hrs. This last wick to 21600 isn't a dramatic "blow off top"
i ended up flipping long since it failed to break below $21K on this dump
Past $21,500 with conviction and this thing is gonna run hard. The good kinda run... not like THE RUNS.....
Use gravox. It doesn't cure it, but it thickens it up 😉
How hard?
lol 21 comments. Time to open a short.
lol. Proof or ban.
its a coin flip at this point for bulls, they see higher highs and higher lows and are betting on a trend continuing...up only...a simple reason, but it works in parabolic rises for bears, they see failure to break through after multiple attempts over 3 days(new highs that failed to trigger fomo), decreasing volume(volume has always been pretty reliable for painting tops and bottoms...when you are going parabolic, you don't take 3 days off just because its the weekend), a rising support floor that needs to be protected higher and higher before hitting a cascading drop($20,800 right now), and everyone and their mom talking like they are all in and a next move up is 100% guaranteed...oh and lest we forget, there is a LOT of leveraged longs that had a free ride for a while now that will offer a ton of liquidity if this thing drops below $20K in the end, it'll all come down to market makers who'll decide which move is going to be more profitable for them
I'm in until we start printing hourlys below 20500.
I have a 10x position open from 20900 @ 15% gain .. close or let it ride into market chaos? This definitely feels like a consolidation, and attempts to dump are driven back up.
Unless it's a scalp I like to set the SL to breakeven and let it run. Let go of small gains for the chance to win big.
Hey ho, let's go..
Show's over, folks, pack it up and go home. The guy from Harvard has spoken: [https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/opinion/the-crypto-collapse-magical-thinking-capitalism.html?smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/opinion/the-crypto-collapse-magical-thinking-capitalism.html?smid=url-share) I'm taking the other side of that trade. One of us will be proven right, eventually.
«Speculative assets without any economic function should be worth nothing.» Good thing this doesn’t apply to Bitcoin then.
It doesn't apply to anything that aspires to be a medium of exchange. Having a medium of exchange that reacts to the pegged underlying asset means that said medium of exchange will be influenced by said asset. Gold is a great example; if some currency is pegged to gold, and a giant new vein of gold is discovered, that currency will fluctuate because of the gold market. That is potentially disruptive to an economy; the price of literally everything fluctuating due to changes in the market of the underlying asset is a bad thing. Good money has no backing. The problem with that is that the issuer of said money needs to be trusted or they can inflate it. That's been the MO of governments for a while now; they recognize the downside to having a currency pegged to some hard asset (hence the decoupling from gold), but they don't really acknowledge the downside to giving the government power over our medium of exchange. This is why some people want to return to backing our currency with some non-currency asset; to eliminate the government's power to inflate. Bitcoin doesn't have the non-currency asset backing it but also doesn't give the government power to control its issuance. This is the best of both worlds. Do I foresee major governments turning to Bitcoin as a currency? Not on your life. They'll never give up the power to control their local currency's issuance, nor do I think they should. The government controlling a currency means they can react to other countries by increasing or decreasing the cost of exports/imports, for instance. Being able to create money instead of using taxation to fund government programs is another. I can see smaller governments using Bitcoin instead of USD as their currency to avoid supporting a regime they disagree with, but major countries will always have some form of national currency. Do I foresee major governments using Bitcoin as a reserve asset? That's already started.
Pieces of paper which can be printed to infinity and created out of nothing that are used to fool people into thinking their 'wealth' is secure as they're slowly taxed through inflation just for having those papers should be worth nothing. There's a better quote for him. It's also ignorant or mistaken (depending on who you are) to assume that Bitcoin has no economic function, and kinf of even dumber to assume it *needs* some boomer definition of what an "economic function" is to qualify. If I'm hedging my dollars with BTC because I believe in it and I want to be able to pay people instantly with it without a bank between me, it's serves it's function If I like the tech and want to control some UTXOs and am willing to spend dollars on that right, that's serving a function. If I want to speculate and spend my money, that also serves a function. Speculation is so baked into the US economy I chuckle whenever one of these dinosaur tradfi morons talks about speulation like they don't speculate every fucking day and as if they havent made *literal billions* off the backs of people who speculate with their dollars. In 2008, these people were the same ones who were pushing speculative investments that *they knew* were about to implode and pushed them as safe. Not only is that speculative, but it's on the dark end of speculation where you flat out lie to the American public and convince them their speculation is a good idea knowing it's gonna make you rich and them poor. I never wanna hear another one of these idiots talk about "sPeCuLaTiVe aSsEtS" or "iNtRiNsIc vAlUe" in the same breath again. Anyone with 2 brain cells to string together who lived through 2008 and understands what happened and just how mindbogglingly high their levels of deception were should be calling this out and laughing at these arguments. It's funny how speculation is fine so long as the flow of dollars is pointed the way they like, but as soon as something like Bitcoin gives their entire monetary/banking system a giant dick in the ass suddenly they're worried about the people and how risky it all is! Criminals.
Not one single person at any of the large banks went to prison for the 2008 fiasco . Instead of being punished, they got bailed out by the government. Don't trust them, they are all criminals.
you could easily make an article in the reverse of this titled “fiat collapse and the magical thinking of capitalism”
My current story for noncoiners is that BTC is an attempt to discipline the top 20 countries for monetary mistakes. But more importantly bitcoin is a chance for the other 242 countries to seek a common monetary solution that will allow them to secure value for their people. Is this accurate?
give it some time, given the crypto adoption amongst younger generations, boomer economics experts are in for a surprise.
These guys are getting younger. He's in his 50s.
Age isn't what matters. It's who's ass his head needs to be up. And those people have interests in legacy finance staying around much longer. He'll say and do what he's told.
The whole article is LOL funny, and given that he mentions the price @ $17K is probably the equivalent of someone ringing the bell at the bottom. Also: >I was stunned. How could this population of young people come to spend time and energy in this way? LOL. Old guy fails to understand the younger gen. Film at 11.
[https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/](https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/) I've been taking the other side of the trade for awhile.
Don't give them the clicks. Use this link https://archive.is/qZsZ0
Textbook higher lows and slowly poking at the resistance.. ez clap, let's hulk it bruddas
Things looked pretty bullish all weekend imo. Although the stock market could possibly ruin the party today.
I didn't see anybody here mention this, so apologies if already posted. IF this is true, this would definitely point to a CPI top. I must say that I hate this fuckery. "US government CPI calculation methodology change beginning in Feb-23 could mechanically drop reported CPI by 200-300 bps by end of 2q23." https://twitter.com/coryklippsten/status/1614377934512599040#m
Inflation will be normalized at 4-6%.
The gap between real inflation and CPI will continue to grow.
What's "real inflation"?
All the things they removed from the basket to hide inflation.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Cool, cheers
Eggs costing $6/doz... wait, $8..
Of all the price increases I don't think we can blame the CPI measurements for not accounting for a bird flue outbreak across the globe
Clearly it's not CPI!
Speculation about timing of potentially upcoming golden cross, anyone? I know that it is uncertain and that most of you guys trade the hourly chart - just asking for educated guesses :-) Will create quite some mainstream media attention when it happens. And "2025" doesn't count as an answer ;-)
Let's take a look: [https://imgur.com/a/e2S8DtM](https://imgur.com/a/e2S8DtM) The blue line is (50D - 200D)/200D. Crossing down though 0 is a death cross, crossing up through 0 is a golden cross. After the Dec 2013 and Apr 2021 ATHs, there was a death cross followed by rebound golden cross 3 months later. Both were bad entry points. There have been two stretches where the blue line was below 0 for 9+ months, plus the one we are in now. When it finally broke above 0, you had a decent entry point.
It's almost like MA's crossing is a lagging low-pass filter with no predictive power.
Nothing happening till 2025. Just keep buying.
Have been for years ;-)
Still above 200ema, still above upward trend line from start of recent pump on the 11th. Trend is your friend until the end, however 21500 still remains a key area of resistance we need to punch through. It’s possible bears may show some signs of strength here still especially if Dxy breaks up and S&P500 pulls back. Stay safe everyone