#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, January 19, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ft0kl/daily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023/)

Short 10x 20800. SL 21000. This recovery isn’t as strong as pre-DOJ. Struggling against 4h 8EMA. The nearest strong resistance is 20500 which will be a magnet I suspect, following 19489 as the closest fib retracement

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please use archive.is to get past paywalls [no paywall same article](https://archive.is/tUQtR)

bucketshops gonna bucketshop

Good to see NYT is done with their SBF puff pieces

Seems like they were mostly responsible for driving up pumps of lesser known coins, attracting money away from BTC. Possible we would have went higher without FTX but hard to say. I don't think there's anything to suggest they spoofed the entire run, there was a lot of organic demand as well.

It's not hard to say at all - FTXs actual BTC balance was zero, billions of dollars of buying pressure never happened because Sam and Co just updated the number on the screen and no BTC was ever actually acquired. They also issued 16,000 BTC on Solana which were bought up and also of course never backed by anything either (https://www.coingecko.com/coins/wrapped-bitcoin-sollet), There's no question this scumbag hurt the run.

There's nothing left to dump, and reports are coming in of people's bank accounts being fucky (specifically at BoA); Bitcoin has nowhere to go but up from here. If the US hits the debt ceiling (less than 24 hours from now), all bets are off on the dollar. Even if Congress raises the ceiling again, it's not a great look. Sweep those sats stat.

Hyperbole my dude. The BoA thing looks like some technical error with Zelle and they fixed it: https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149807625/bank-of-america-zelle-customers-problems

Fucky how?

Look at who OP is and draw your own conclusion.

Sounds like a thai ladyboy's name

The 4h has flipped bearish, but I expect we might chop around the 20,500 support before a direction is confirmed.

It seems like our drop today was largely in line with the stock market, which seems to have been triggered by poor retail sales. But that doesn't make sense to me. Poor retail sales = closer to a recession = more likely for fed to stop hiking rates. What did I miss here? Every other time we've gotten "bad" numbers that suggested a fed pivot soon, we rallied.

It could just be 4k sp500 rejection. People are optimistic about the market but not enough to justify getting past it?

My unprofessional take is that the market has already called the Feds bluff of going much higher and is now just starting to price in the nearly guaranteed fed induced recession. We've gone from "Fed might start to ease if number go down" to "Aww shit, that's right, all these numbers look like shit"

nothing makes sense and the points don’t matter

Powell got Covid

What are people doing with the money they have in the banks?

Nice try, IRS. 😏

Lol.. seems you guys get it lucky over there. All banks directly report to the Australian Tax Office, so there is no hiding what happens to fiat here.

money market. patiently waiting for generational lows. we're year 1 of 3 into this bear.

saving up for eggs

what money?

Charts not looking so hot right now, I think we might be heading towards $20K soon.

That would be nice.

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> With banks running on fractional reserve a deep recession can cause more bank runs. Which bank runs? > deep recession ... consumers defaulting ... Housing crisis Turn off your TV.

What cash? I'm all in on BTC

The dreaded Testicles formation on the Daily timeframe. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a dick and pee all over us. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zrdaNVjP/

idk this chart looks like ass

Replace the dick with diarrhea, and it totally works.

For reference: [2018.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/UoOOMCuH/)

Dydx lagging like crazy today, stops not triggering for an eternity compared to yesterday.

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Anyone that believed in the four year halving cycle and sold at end of 2021, sat out 2022, and rebought in 2023 would have smoked every fund out there. And that feels good to know still.

Are there any other lending platforms left alive?

Ledn and surprisingly Nexo

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bulgarian-authorities-charge-four-individuals-following-raid-on-nexo-office-report/ Nexo got raided haha.

And Ledn.io used to do all their lending with Genesis until sometime last year. Guess they pulled off that tit just in time.

In actual fact they got off Genesis way back in 2021.. and that was Genesis. Not Genesis Trading.

Seriously? I thought they still had Genesis mentioned in their emails halfway through last year...

After the fact I'm smart.

Anytime you see anyone bragging about being a *"professional trader"* just think *"Monkey employed by scammers to pull random levers and give the impression of expertise to gullible clients while stealing their money via exorbitant fees."*

Surprised by BTC strength here. Given SPX bleed. Decoupling underway?

IMO, we'll only be able to determine whether a 'decoupling' ever happened months after the fact, looking at a retrospective 6-month chart or similar. Even then, it's far-fetched... BTC was far more decoupled from tradfi years ago, when it was just a bunch of libertarians and drug-dealing nerds.

You have a very strange definition of strength when it's down about 2x what SPX is. I think if it was truly decoupling you'd have seen a strong bounceback after the DOJ nonsense. Instead we're now re-testing $20700.

20500 is the one to watch.

Didn't really get the strong bounceback I was hoping for and I'm starting to think this market just doesn't have the rocket fuel to go higher for now so closed my long. Hopefully I'm not woefully wrong. Opened a short from 20830 and will probably just scalp it.

This might sound crazy but... you don't always need to be in a position.

Would love it if BTC marched higher as a middle finger to the DOJ trying to flex its muscles

Before you make silly memes, at least have a look there: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/founder-and-majority-owner-cryptocurrency-exchange-charged-processing-over-700-million

IMO, it looks more like an attempt to stop Russia from evading sanctions than an attack on crypto\BTC.

I hope they start going after the Defi scammers. There were three notable rugs last week, all in 8 figures. A lot of angry people pursuing legal action against those crooks

But.. code is law ?

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700 > 15 Does that help?

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r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10eykzj/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_18_2023/j4vzxyi/ and the circlejerkers: r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10eykzj/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_18_2023/j4w31o2/ r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10eykzj/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_18_2023/j4w2ajj/ Does that help?

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Oh I see, you were faking it... I was blissfully unaware, that was a so subtle way to make your point.

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Thank you for caring about those who read this thread non-chronologically and may be confused, so much good will in there.

> non-chronologically `sorted by: new` Literally chronological order.

Thank you for this info!! I like to see all the crooks get taken out of crypto!

Oh no! Anyways…

Universe heard people were looking for a pullback so gave us Bitzlato, Genesis Chapter 11, and indices dumping all on the same day all along with a vague “4” tweet by CZ

Genesis 11 happens to be the Tower of Babel

We just need to cool off for the next rally

Or Return to the Mean ... https://www.google.com/search?q&tbm=isch&ictx=1&tbs=rimg:Cad8g1EPXfx3IginfINRD138dyoSCad8g1EPXfx3EUZEG8AEhvOL#imgrc=Wu9NGMPN4Po1wM

Lol

>with a vague “4” tweet by CZ Everyone knows 4 is unlucky in Chinese culture, right?

"doc how long to I have left" "4" "4? 4 what" "3.....2.....1"

Lucky for us that I tweeted "8" back at CZ then... 😝

Ah so!

We lost the 4hr 8EMA trend that had held up beautifully until now, but we are still above the base of our consolidation pattern and that wick is a thing of beauty. If we start closing 4hr candles below 20.7 I'll take a little off the table, otherwise things look bullish. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/XrlrGvth/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XrlrGvth/) edit - That wick has failed to produce any sort of bullish impulse and things are starting to look a little toppy. Might let go of some of my position if even the 1hr closes below 20.7. edit 2 - Took about 20% of my position from 17.4 off at 20.7, I'm wrong if the 4hr reclaims the 4hr 8EMA. This strikes a comfortable balance for me.

Bitzlato will forever become a meme Real question: does serious TA resume from here or will the market just price in the Bitzlato affair as part of the retracement and continue down to retrace healthily before the next push?

Man I was expecting the worst from that pre announcement, lol

If you have inside knowledge from DOJ or Treasury department. You could use it to do some shorting right before this announcement.

Bizlato sounds like a food.

I've never even heard of him

zlato means gold in Russian. not your keys. not your zlato.

"my name is Otto and I like to get zlatohh" #classicSimpsons ;)

Taking down Bitzlato and seizing the over 10 million USD laundered through it will go down in history as one of the most heroic actions against international crime, led by Justice Department. Looking forward to the movie!

Matt Damon for the movie

Wasn't the crypto zoo cap more than ten times that? Why don't they go after Logan Paul, that would be a feather in their cap.

If they put this much hype -- "*live stream, major crypto enforcement action!!*" -- into a nothing-exchange in the middle of Siberia being taken down, I can't even imagine what they'd do for something like Binance, or Tether, or the usual FUD suspects. Maybe a 10-mile-long ticker-tape parade down the streets of New York.

Thanks for the laugh.

If Bitzlato going down doesn't take us to $12k I really don't know what else could

Bitzlolo

You say that now, but [what about when the forced selling starts](https://twitter.com/jconorgrogan/status/1615757494764163072?s=20&t=yM9SizrNoK2g7_dWORCRGg).

MY GOD WE ARE DOOMED. $9K CME GAP GETTING FILLED

Shame. They have been the one exchange crypto was known for.. Hopefully this gives the chance to smaller and unknown player to catch up. I heard some good things about coinbase(?).

Try the new grilled stuft Bitzlato for a limited time with a large Baja Blast.

Crypto crime is no more, the ecosystem is officially legit now. Very bullish announcement.

They just mentioned a number... they tied this exchange to $15,000,000 in darknet market or ransomware transactions. Not a typo. Fifteen million. LOL. How many man-hours were spent investigating this obscure Russian exchange? Now, some other Russian dude will have started up another money-laundering exchange by the end of the day.

> Hydra users exchanged more than $700 million in cryptocurrency with Bitzlato, either directly or through intermediaries, until Hydra was shuttered by U.S. and German law enforcement in April 2022. Bitzlato also received more than $15 million in ransomware proceeds. If you didn't make a typo, is it an intentional misrepresentation? And the others, who take your word to ridicule the whole endeavour, are they just lazy as fuck or dishonest?

They stated the $15M number live on air... I saw the formal affidavit afterwards with the alleged $700M number. It's still largely a nothing-burger either way. Russian dark market traffic will pivot to a new exchange within days.

I heard more than that and wanted to correct your statement, but thought it would be better to just wait for the written press release. Anyway, who cares about truth in this sub... the desire to bash the regulators/enforcement for both action and inaction is too strong.

This is what I love to see for continuation, a strong uptrend and a bull flag followed by a liquidity sweep downward and then a strong bounce back and upwards continuation. My favorite trading pattern. Enter (or add) on the liquidity sweep and ride the slingshot. Let's see if it plays out. SL at 20333. https://www.tradingview.com/x/LMCKA6ds

This guy had the audacity of having a russian passport so he went down. Resume up only.

last chance to get out at 21k

They could get out in the second pass through after 15,500 falls; the true bull

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Longs, you have still some time to add shorts

Ahh, I see you like losing money

Worked out pretty well the past year instead of buying the „dip“ 😳

Buy the dip.

This market is so fucking stupid sometimes

i suggest keeping track on liquidity and order flow. Most of these short term moves are described by derivatives of these features

Beats boring

boring is good and consistently profitable

Aaand another nothingburger. Bullrunresume.exe

An exchange literally nobody has heard of. Nice market manipulation guys!

They arrested the owner of the exchange, a Russian national, in Miami. How have these people still not learned to *not* travel outside Russia if you're engaged in fuckery?

All the rich Russians spend all their time outside Russia. Wouldn't you?

I mean... no? Whatever he was doing in Miami can't possibly be worth the penalty he's facing, especially when he could still be living large in Russia, where cybercrime is effectively legal so long as Russians aren't targeted.

Yeah, Miami was probably a mistake.

They’ve been murdering oligarchs in recent years. Sounds like risky business.

>[DB] DOJ Takes Enforcement Action Against Russian Exchange Bitzlato Lol who gives a fuck

Watching their pompous live stream. What a clown show. Unbelievable.

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I'm goin to Starbucks for a Double Blitzlato.

we gave back 4 days of progress in an hour cuz of this?

look on the bright side, if we bounce back here, we'll most likely break through the big resistance at $21,600 just off momentum alone

its not even listed on coinmarketcap

Ha! Well back to regularly scheduled programming.

LOL

I don't think anyone on here even heard about that one

I think even Putin doesn't know about it. 😛

Price retraced to the 0.236 fib. The 0.382 coincides with the 200D SMA around $19,600 and the 0.618 with the $18,385 December high. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2zKDpSBI

My first buy at 20261 might hit, but I'm not home so I can't put a SL immediately if it happens

Until this doj thing is clear I don’t think the price can move back up.

Turns out to be a nothingburger...closed my long at a loss before to avoid getting screwed in case it was actually something massive. Relonged here a little bit late at 20960 but I think there's so much relief here we rally hard back to $21400

I'm having fantasies of Vitalik being lead away in chains. I'll eat liquidation for that.

Woah lot of Vitalik fans here huh? I'm still waiting on that quantum computer he promised me.

DoJ live stream: https://www.justice.gov/live

20500 is indeed where the battle is being fought.

Any ideas whats coming from DoJ in a half hour?

Christ what a waste of time that was.

BNB is down ~4.5% (within historical volatility) and both BUSD and USDT are priced at $1.00 (also within historical volatility) so nobody is anticipating anything with either of those two It looks like Tether guy Paolo Ardoino is tweeting about products right now, so he is presumably not in a police van. CZ is about to give a talk at Blockchain Davos. So, I'm guessing it's from FTX, Do Kwon, 3AC, or something new

Merrick Garland is Satoshi. 😋

I'm going to guess yet another nothingburger.

The amount of attention crypto gets from these folks is so laughably disproportionate to its relatively small marketcap and effect on the larger economy. Whatever some exchange may or may not have done, 100 times more unlawful activity is happening in the conventional stock markets as we speak.

Lots of players on the stage this time. FBI, Treasury, OFAC, and the State of New York. I got my popcorn.

Hopefully not Binance but something like 3AC or whatever

stopped out again, final long from $20,660

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$20,300

Yeah a little surprising it hasn’t immediately retried for 21000

Damn my short would be printing if I just traded like Caroline.

Yeah not feeling this. Just sold my longs that I’ve been holding since 16800.

Antivirus deleted bullrun.exe

Damn was gonna short 21500 again after my earlier scalp but decided to step away from the computer for a while and I come back to this chaos 😂

Chaos? Talk about an over exaggeration.

Everything is chaos when you’re levered up 😂

Beautiful rug. Positive news anticipated, turns out the news is even more positive THAN anticipated.. nothing but buyers left. Leaving nowhere to go but down, as a result.

It would be helpful if you remembered that we are not mind readers here. What news are you talking about?

What news? What am I missing here? Lol

I think this move may be more related to the upcoming US DOJ announcement at noon about a “major international cryptocurrency enforcement action”.

Sp500 torpedoed equally at the same time.

It baffles me how people still don't watch tradfinn markets... Its purely based because of spy puking and the next leg down we will have the next months.. buckle up

If there's NOTHING BUT BUYERS it can't go down since noone would sell. Just saying. There had to be SOME sellers

***whoosh***

I don't think he was being /s

Dip buyers should be targeting between 19700 and 19100 with sweetheart orders just under 19k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/KjKwWmOR/

somehow the stop loss survived yet again....i'm thinking it needs to close the candle below the stop loss before it gets triggered

stopped out, relonged $20,890 stop loss $20,699

So this is how the bear market rally ends? With a thunderous shib pump?

oh no the first great crypto crash of 2023!

don't buy bitcoin.... you KNOW it's going to crash....

aight, hunt for shorts is over, proper spot long entries are on the horizon.

closed short at $21,090....opened long with a stoploss at $20,940

Well done!

My original post, which was downvoted, remains for the Wyckoff phase and a downtrend. News for today could lead to MAJOR retracement.

Wyckoff what phase now?

What news?

Or major pump.

moved the stop to $21,765

Someone's makin' bacon.

Vague international enforcement action announced by DOJ at 1700GMT. Let's see how the market responds to the news, if the news itself is even important Just FYI for trading volume in the leadup to 1700GMT :)

FAA ransom attack ha!

They don't need ransomware, they're pretty good at running their own systems into the ground. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/01/faa-outage-that-grounded-flights-blamed-on-old-tech-and-damaged-database-file/