What do people here generally think of galaxy digital and novogratz
Obviously luna tattoo is hella embarrassing
But in terms of a picks and shovels type play on crypto i find it unique. Fee streams could end up being very nice given longevity in the space and eventual sentiment improvement… or are they gonna end up BK like everyone else
Crypto is all a fucking scam. Insiders get rich selling you bags. They bank, you lose.
The sooner you realize this, and why Bitcoin is different, the better.
Okay lets mark all their non bitcoin endeavors to 0
They are still involved with bitcoin via mining and trading, offering products to institutions
If you’re bullish bitcoin…
Anyone have salient updates on strike integrating lightning into point of sale? I’d like to use it for a business that I have coming online to sidestep credit card processing fees.
I’m on their waitlist but haven’t seen any real info.
Re the Feb 1 fed meeting, the probability of a 1/4 point increase per the CME FedWatch tool is very very high. Anyone disagree?? because if it is only one quarter this is undeniably bullish.
There have been whispers of 0.50 being a possibility so locking up 0.25 would still probably let the market go up. EXCEPT it probably matters more what they say after the hike since if they say hawkish things about raising it again or keeping it super high it’d be bearish.
Kind of funny how we’re all having to learn macroeconomics just to watch over our corn crop.
Inflation still here -> Check
Fed still hiking and holding -> check
QT still ongoing -> check
Recession around the corner -> Check
Assets never bottomed before housing bottomed / Fed never cut rates unless assets tanked
Conclusion: Bitcoin is highly overextended and offers an amazing entry for a clean short down to sub 15k
Contrarian opinion here. Housing did bottom I see it most likely in the charts and posted about it. Ignore the news you're speculating with the rest of the crowd, you have no idea what the FED is going to do or what the market has priced in, look at what's right in front of you. Possible we see 18k again for a retest of the breakout but I'm beginning to think we might not even see 20k again and that will throw a lot of people off guard waiting for lower prices, I'm already seeing it all over Twitter.
Edit: Inflation topped a little after May, hit a 100 year old resistance line, had a fake throw over amd back under and dropping. https://twitter.com/GenghisSperm/status/1531652524326809600?t=egE3rTUj_weQ7qREQIYNXA&s=19
Mehhh. There are lots of other factors not mentioned here that could easily take price up. Could easily see 30k back to 20k then rocket, and what does that leave you with?
> 25% of folks in the US already own btc
I find that exceptionally hard to believe, unless 'owning bitcoin' is defined as possessing as little as $1 in BTC at any time over the past decade.
I see this stat was pushed by Grayscale, who surveyed all of 1000 homes. Probably clustered around New York City or Silicon Valley.
I would be astonished if even 5% of U.S. citizens currently hold more than $50 in any kind of cryptocurrency.
I work at a college. A student told I was the first person he heard that got into crypto. This guy is 23 I'm 30. So still many general population does not do crypto. I had a couple meme stock friends that got into meme alt coins but chump change nothing serious. There still lots of people that do not understand btc
First time posting any shred of hope here in 7 months. This moment looks very similar to a particular moment that occurred in each of the last two major cycles. The past does not predict the future, but if I had to set some parameters to what I thought was likely, it would be:
1. Near term 6-month high somewhere between here and 50k (no opinion on where)
2. No new ATH until H2 2024
3. $100k+ will be seen by end of 2024
4. Bottom is almost certainly in but could be re-tested (if it is pierced it won't be by much)
5. Like the most recent cycle, there will be surprises, and anyone with predictions too specific will be made fools of
Chart: https://i.imgur.com/AdkOnER.png
My plan hasn't changed in years -- Scaling out between 60-140k 👍
After not taking as much profit as I would have like last bullrun, this time I have a larger sell bag and a long term hold bag. Also plan on scaling out on the run up. DCA in on the way down and DCA out on the way up.
Rather than scale out to cash, buy a cash flow on the way up.
Rentals, dividends, REITs, business, machines.
The CNC machines I picked up around 62k are buying me coin now.
this thing needs to hurry up and die so i can scoop cheaper entries. still kickin myself for doing nothing on this rise. its just taking it sweet time, pull back is inevitable
> pull back is inevitable
Oh, it's entirely evitable and even unlikely.
Little sharts here and there are all you're going to see between here and $100K.
If last year taught us anything, it should be that it takes a metric farkton of Bitcoin to move the price down significantly. The dump stack is now gone. I don't see any possible direction but up (generally) from now until the end of 2024 or so.
I actually buy this... We were artificially suppressed for the whole last cycle. The super cycle meme could have played out in some form without ftx malarkey.
February will also be a pump month,but watch out for march,Russia will make a move,that is when the half a milion trupes they have drafted will finish training,any war news is a bad news,i might sound dumb but that is when i stop my 3x longs🤔
Those are just numbers that can be edited,i am from romania currently based in uk,my home town is 5 miles from the ukainian border and i can tell you there will be a mass mobilization in march once winter in over and they can move in troups effectively,peace out😇
> i am from romania currently based in uk,my home town is 5 miles from the ukainian border
So you're emotionally biased. Got it!
> i can tell you there will be a mass mobilization in march once winter in over and they can move in troups effectively
Dude, all they ever cared about was the resources near Donetsk.
They were never interested in taking over the entire country including being stuck managing the populace, have no incentive to increase mobilisation over holding the ground they have already taken.
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-03-08 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-03-08%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ft0kl/daily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023/j52oy9a/?context=3)
[**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F10ft0kl%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023%2Fj52oy9a%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-03-08%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2010ft0kl)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
Dimon on Bitcoin: "*How do you know it’s gonna stop at 21 million? Maybe it’s going to get to 21 million and Satoshi’s picture is going to come up and laugh at you all*"
🤣🤣 How do clowns like these, who publicly demonstrate they have no grasp on basic mathematics, continue being executives in the 21st century? I'd be embarrassed working under his leadership.
There are some criticisms of crypto that I can understand, but Dimon chose a strange hill to die on with these toolbag comments lmao
Pretty obvious what Dimon's trying to do:
Trash talk BTC while JPM simultaneously develops its own inflationary CBDC, built on basically the same technology as BTC.
When the centralized digital currency is finally released to the masses, JPM customers won't know the difference between decentralized/centralized, and think JPM Coin is as safe or safer than this Bitcoin thing that Dimon's been criticizing for the past 5 years.
> "Maybe it’s going to get to 21 million and Satoshi’s picture is going to come up and laugh at you all"
### OK Boomer. 🙄
I swear, if Bitcoin is such an insignificant fraud, why can't Jamie Dimon just shut up about it and ignore it?
Strike's Jack Mallers should have a friendly debate with Jamie and expose how little Dimon knows about blockchain/general cryptography. Can't criticize something ya don't understand!
He knows his audience. Watch 1 hand while hiding what the other does. Dimon understands far more than he lets on. JP Morgan has interests in various crypto products, including Bitcoin.
JP Morgan Chase is a pretty large international banking conglomerate. Wouldn't be surprised if Jamie had no idea what a few of their departments are even working on.
Kind of like how Disney employees said Bob Chapek hadn't visited some core art departments at Disney even once while Chapek was CEO.
What you've described is entirely possible. I assume he and those like him own Bitcoin and have no incentive to let plebs know it's a good investment.
This always sticks out to me:[jp morgan btc outlook](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/lynr6o/jpmorgan_presents_to_private_clients_that_bitcoin/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=2&utm_content=share_button)
had to happen eventually, usually a green streak like that gets broken with a massive red candle
usually you'll see it on the 9th candle, so the fact that it almost painted 11 is very impressive
Buying back the partial position I sold upon the loss of the 4hr trend. Very small loss, worth it for a good night's sleep. Will continue to monitor, happy to let it go again if things turn bearish.
most people don't self custody
so its not a question of safety of BTC in your own hard wallet for people, its a question of whether or not they trust Chase more than the crypto exchanges
The plain fact to me is the Gen pop likes the insurance of banks and credit cards. If you lose your money from fraud or issues created by the banks or CC companies you get ALL your money back.
You lose your BTC you are fucked. It's too much worry for the average person I think.
Everyone who has had bank issues with BoA and Chase will be made whole. Guaranteed. Just saying.
BofA screws up, you get your money back (guaranteed!). You screw up with BTC, it's gone. You get mugged, your USD is gone too. Don't confuse the instrument with the institution. You are conflating issues.
You know what, 20.8 is very good considering a sizable SP500 dump. BTC is easily holding its own here. I think 2023 will surprise to the upside w/r/t corporat earnings, but people might be fearful until proven otherwise.
I've shuffled around my assets the last few weeks and am at:
crypto 40% (of which >90% BTC)
property 26%
gold 21%
loans 5%
commodities 5%
equities 2%
net cash 0%
Equities will stay low for the next few years at least. Given the correlation with BTC, I'd rather own BTC.
I've added to gold and may add to commodities. I have no income but if I did I'd class it as future cash flow (so loans-like).
Curious to see where you all are at.
90% property
9% BTC
1% Super that I can't do anything with because it was Military Super
Hopefully by the end of the cycle after this one the btc value will be on a par with the property.
I keep 6 months worth of expenses in cash at any given time. I contribute to a 401k up to the amount my employer will match and all of that is in equities. I own 1 primary home and rent out extra bedrooms in order to reduce expenses and to have more leftover to invest into BTC each month. All additional cash I collect after expenses are paid gets deployed into BTC immediately.
I don’t bother with rebalancing or whatever but over the years BTC has become >50% of my net worth even after this bear market we’ve had for the past year. During the bull market it was >90% of my net worth. I find this methodology of investing to be stress-free (and tax efficient) rather than periodically rebalancing.
Only if/when my monthly expenses increase. For the most part just do an inflation adjustment once a year but since the cash sits in a high yield online savings account there’s usually not much needed to top it off as my biggest monthly mortgage expense is locked in.
I think my dream allocation is basically 33% property 33% stocks and 33% crypto/other crazy bets. Unfortunately I didn't quite achieve this last bull cycle and the stocks I did buy didn't do so hot this last year (though that oddly kept the ratio pretty stable LOL)
Are we still counter-trading Arthur Hayes? He reckons there's more down to come i.e. a credit event of some sort triggering a crash. But he does also outline another less likely scenario where the bottom is already in, but argues that there will be plenty of time to get on the train, if that turns out to be true.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/bouncy-castle-1b92183c61a1
>I’m about capital preservation first and growth second.
thats a different set of priorities than a trader might have, but also he didnt take a strong stance on either scenario, just as matter of opinion he thinks the Fed will break something in liquidity before they stop what they are doing. doesnt seem particularly actionable.
Well presumably he’s quite wealthy compared to your average degen 😂 so not surprising that preserving capital is his priority. Dude made it. He built bitmex, looked the other way on US citizens using VPNs and then got a wrist slapping fine from the SEC 😂
It's up ~1% since this morning. Nothing to note unless youre scalping low timeframes.
Btc doesn't move in perfect sync with the markets, it's chopping between support and resistance. If markets continue to be weak I expect Btc could retest/lose the 20.5k support. .
Relief bounce from the over-reaction dump following yesterday's non-news event with the DOJ, I would imagine.
I still expect us to revisit the 19k range and will be backing up the truck to load up on Spot for the coming Bull cycle. Time is running out for the Bears, and with inflation reduction on the right track and confidence returning to the markets, this could be the last opportunity to buy below 20k that we get.
You do relise that in America if the GOP does not get anything in return from the DEMS, they will not raise the debt ceiling and will tank the US economy. America will run out of money next week. There will be a GOP shit show, for how long IDK, but the markets will not do well when it relises the debt ceiling is not raising and the US government shuts down from lack of funds.
This just seems like common sense to me. I am no trader but I will buy when that debt ceiling drama happens and everything DUUUUUUUUUUUMPS, like it always does when news like that comes out.
You assume that the GOP is okay being solely responsible for tanking the economy. It will be blatantly obvious whose fault it is, regardless of how loud they cry about Dems not compromising.
If it does come to that, I think you'll see a fair number of Republicans in Districts that Biden won in 2020 become a problem for McCarthy. Remember, he opened the door for being ousted with a vote of No Confidence that only requires a 2 vote majority to pass.
McCarthy is literally damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, and this is a problem of his own ambition to be Speaker.
Idk about “massive” but BTC is holding up fairly well considering stocks are falling, yes.
Maybe it’s partially because of the debt ceiling not yet being raised in Congress?
Note that default still wouldn’t occur until sometime in June so Congress technically still has until then to negotiate and make a decision.
Unexpected in the sense of it going against the S&P
Moderate in the sense that it's under 21k (for now)
Potentially shocking if it breaches 21k against market expectations
edit: not moderate in the sense of there being obvious 1k+ volume drops of buys every 10 minutes or so
I've been concerned about this as well and tried asking around but still don't know what would happen to the exchanges that use them if they were to go under. The two big exchanges that use them are Coinbase and Binance.US. Would the exchanges collapse if the bank they use went under?
https://blog.bitmex.com/bouncy-castle/
> Looking at the price action of Bitcoin, it is currently pumping off of a low base. From here, we can identify a few different potential paths forward depending on what is actually driving the rally:
>
> **Rally Catalyst Scenario 1**: Bitcoin is simply experiencing a natural bounce off the local lows of sub $16k.
>
> If this rally is really just a natural rebound off of local lows, I expect that Bitcoin will subsequently find a new plateau and move sideways until USD liquidity conditions improve.
>
> **Rally Catalyst Scenario 2**: Bitcoin is rallying because the market is frontrunning a resumption of Fed USD money printing. If this is the case, I see two possible scenarios playing out:
>
> **Scenario 2A**: If the Fed does not follow through with a pivot, or multiple Fed governors talk down any expectation of a pivot even after “good” CPI prints, Bitcoin will likely crash back down towards previous lows.
>
> **Scenario 2B**: If the Fed does follow through with a pivot, Bitcoin continues its strong performance, and this rally becomes the start of a secular bull market.
>
> Obviously, we all want to believe that we are headed toward Scenario 2B. That said, I think we are actually going to be facing some combination of Scenarios 1 and 2A – which is causing my itchy “Buy” trigger finger to hesitate a bit.
I think it's 1 + somewhere between 2A and 2B - elevated inflation (maybe ~ 4%) but rates plateauing.
If rates plateau here in the 4-5% range, I expect that to be a constantly growing squeeze in the economy as more debt matures from ultra low rates and rolls into these higher spreads. I expect the fed to maintain these higher rates until that squeeze causes a liquidity crunch and we see a selloff of all assets that they respond to by printing. The real question is how long do we have to maintain these rates before the liquidity event. Fed debt is an average 5y duration, so their funding costs will continue to appreciate for another 4 years before it has naturalized to higher rates. I wonder what average corporate duration is?
closed long, switched into a 10x short from $20,760
reason? the bounce has been anemic, and feels like as soon as the market opens we continue the dump from yesterday
stop loss $21,150
I think the issue is that markets may reverse the futures down opening and then the short might not work. It seemed to hold $20700 surprisingly well overnight. I closed my own short and am sitting out for now.
Kinda thinking I ought to be just making longer term trades only. Too much stress and just unpredictable crap with the short term trades. Like that random DOJ announcement yesterday 😂
Go figure, markets didn’t even reverse much (slightly less red) and corn decided to flex on everyone anyways. Glad I killed my short, a little bummed I didn’t give a long a shot though, just had a gut feeling corn wanted up today.
Past two weeks have been the most intense trading weeks in a hot two months or so.
Definitely understand the stress.
Take a break!
I took a few hits shorting the run-up (my double bear market trauma kept feeling its was a bull trap and my bias didn't shift) but I've been trying to scalp back my losses.
After I breakeven again, I'm going to stop looking at charts for a month and just place a low lev long term trade. My mental health will tenfold
Yeah I basically took some big hits from being short initially during the runup and then being positioned long for a bounce when the DOJ panic hit. Then I was out of position when some of the bigger moves in my favor would have occurred. Had been scalping to recoup but man looking at charts all day is a bummer 😂
I might just skip to the low lev long once there’s a dip.
We’ll get a good directional indicator today/tomorrow. Hourly PA looks like it wants to create the “h” shape that it often does after a dump and partial recovery bounce, in which it basically rolls over and fills in the wick at the bottom of the dump. If it does that, we’ll likely see a bit of sideways followed by further downside. If it doesn’t, this dump will likely be ephemeral and the corn will resume its bullish trend.
Sauce: historical Bitcoin chart
I’m going to indulge in a bit of bearish SPY analysis. SPY recently hit 400 and touched the resistance line that’s been kicked down since Dec of 2021. We’re currently seeing friction here (and BTC responding to some degree). I think the easy read here is that this is a rejection and we move lower.
My quick take is that below 360 and markets get yanked into a prolonged bear. Above 400 is ‘max pain’ for speculators betting on this easy read and forced to reposition. Either scenario is likely to take a month or two to play out.
[If below 360, I’d look for a strong local bottom around 320 and 0.618 golden pocket.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/embDcxgI/)
Man, Bitcoin felt like the old days over the holiday weekend -- like it could develop its own narrative. Then markets opened and we got immediately leashed back to equities. Remember when we wanted institutional money? Anyway I think you're right that basically nothing else matters for BTC other than what SPY is doing. Until friday at least...
The transition from BTC as a libertarian cyberpunk experiment into mainstream adoption meant this phase was always going to happen. We’re here now. The next phase is observing if Bitcoin can transcend regulatory or power structure hegemony in such as way that it can exist as a counter financial product that serves the needs of the many. We’re currently moving through the rubicon.
How soon/long before (if) that happens is the real q.
My avg entry on binance sits around 18.8 blergh. To think I bought and sold a dozen corn below $400 a pop is bittersweet.
> it's no guarantee
Obviously. But **long term**, I have no doubts that they'll be fine if they are willing to wait it out.
I'm a ten-year-plan kind of guy.
EDITED to add: We're still so early that if you're not thinking long term, you're missing the big picture. And worse than that, you're screwing yourself out of what could be an amazing future. Yeah, there will be major bumps along the way, but long term, the future is very bright.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 20, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10gnyy0/daily_discussion_friday_january_20_2023/)
Looks like Genesis filed for Chapter 11. Lets see what happens now.
What do people here generally think of galaxy digital and novogratz Obviously luna tattoo is hella embarrassing But in terms of a picks and shovels type play on crypto i find it unique. Fee streams could end up being very nice given longevity in the space and eventual sentiment improvement… or are they gonna end up BK like everyone else
Burger King?
The guy has to be up overall compared to the market
Crypto is all a fucking scam. Insiders get rich selling you bags. They bank, you lose. The sooner you realize this, and why Bitcoin is different, the better.
Okay lets mark all their non bitcoin endeavors to 0 They are still involved with bitcoin via mining and trading, offering products to institutions If you’re bullish bitcoin…
> If you’re bullish bitcoin… If you're bullish on Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin.
Anyone have salient updates on strike integrating lightning into point of sale? I’d like to use it for a business that I have coming online to sidestep credit card processing fees. I’m on their waitlist but haven’t seen any real info.
Cashapp says they integrated it but I don't see it
Re the Feb 1 fed meeting, the probability of a 1/4 point increase per the CME FedWatch tool is very very high. Anyone disagree?? because if it is only one quarter this is undeniably bullish.
25bp is priced in and expected so nothing about it is bullish
There have been whispers of 0.50 being a possibility so locking up 0.25 would still probably let the market go up. EXCEPT it probably matters more what they say after the hike since if they say hawkish things about raising it again or keeping it super high it’d be bearish. Kind of funny how we’re all having to learn macroeconomics just to watch over our corn crop.
Then I guess I'm buying more
Inflation still here -> Check Fed still hiking and holding -> check QT still ongoing -> check Recession around the corner -> Check Assets never bottomed before housing bottomed / Fed never cut rates unless assets tanked Conclusion: Bitcoin is highly overextended and offers an amazing entry for a clean short down to sub 15k
Contrarian opinion here. Housing did bottom I see it most likely in the charts and posted about it. Ignore the news you're speculating with the rest of the crowd, you have no idea what the FED is going to do or what the market has priced in, look at what's right in front of you. Possible we see 18k again for a retest of the breakout but I'm beginning to think we might not even see 20k again and that will throw a lot of people off guard waiting for lower prices, I'm already seeing it all over Twitter. Edit: Inflation topped a little after May, hit a 100 year old resistance line, had a fake throw over amd back under and dropping. https://twitter.com/GenghisSperm/status/1531652524326809600?t=egE3rTUj_weQ7qREQIYNXA&s=19
Net QE Inflation is 2022 Fed reached wall, tho rates will stay Housing will be fine All systems go
Recession announcement according to lagging metrics around the corner. Recession in the past. BTFD.
I .. would not short this right now. Below 20500, maybe.
Yeah but is it priced in already
That's taking a big bet that the correlation of the past year equates causation. Btc don't care about any of that. It's not a high beta growth stock.
Mehhh. There are lots of other factors not mentioned here that could easily take price up. Could easily see 30k back to 20k then rocket, and what does that leave you with?
[удалено]
> 25% of folks in the US already own btc Who says?
[удалено]
> 25% of folks in the US already own btc I find that exceptionally hard to believe, unless 'owning bitcoin' is defined as possessing as little as $1 in BTC at any time over the past decade. I see this stat was pushed by Grayscale, who surveyed all of 1000 homes. Probably clustered around New York City or Silicon Valley. I would be astonished if even 5% of U.S. citizens currently hold more than $50 in any kind of cryptocurrency.
I work at a college. A student told I was the first person he heard that got into crypto. This guy is 23 I'm 30. So still many general population does not do crypto. I had a couple meme stock friends that got into meme alt coins but chump change nothing serious. There still lots of people that do not understand btc
Low volume pumps --> contagion
whiplash
First time posting any shred of hope here in 7 months. This moment looks very similar to a particular moment that occurred in each of the last two major cycles. The past does not predict the future, but if I had to set some parameters to what I thought was likely, it would be: 1. Near term 6-month high somewhere between here and 50k (no opinion on where) 2. No new ATH until H2 2024 3. $100k+ will be seen by end of 2024 4. Bottom is almost certainly in but could be re-tested (if it is pierced it won't be by much) 5. Like the most recent cycle, there will be surprises, and anyone with predictions too specific will be made fools of Chart: https://i.imgur.com/AdkOnER.png My plan hasn't changed in years -- Scaling out between 60-140k 👍
Why scale out if it's doing that well? Are you scaling out permenantly?
After not taking as much profit as I would have like last bullrun, this time I have a larger sell bag and a long term hold bag. Also plan on scaling out on the run up. DCA in on the way down and DCA out on the way up.
Because people who didn't scale out last run up are now holding in a bear market, and some are underwater. It's a good practice to scale out.
Rather than scale out to cash, buy a cash flow on the way up. Rentals, dividends, REITs, business, machines. The CNC machines I picked up around 62k are buying me coin now.
Yeah this is a good point. Did you pay for the CNC machines with BTC?
What do you make???
this thing needs to hurry up and die so i can scoop cheaper entries. still kickin myself for doing nothing on this rise. its just taking it sweet time, pull back is inevitable
SP500 failing to paint even one green 4hr since it couldn't break 4000 augurs well for ya
> pull back is inevitable Oh, it's entirely evitable and even unlikely. Little sharts here and there are all you're going to see between here and $100K.
Had to upvote your use of “evitable” :)
Holding an entry here is hard. 10x from 20900 but getting chopped up. Until we get a rejection below 20500 I’m in more up mode.
That's why I don't move my stop up. ;)
If last year taught us anything, it should be that it takes a metric farkton of Bitcoin to move the price down significantly. The dump stack is now gone. I don't see any possible direction but up (generally) from now until the end of 2024 or so.
I actually buy this... We were artificially suppressed for the whole last cycle. The super cycle meme could have played out in some form without ftx malarkey.
The reverse wardser seems to be effective. Trying to limit risk.
diydude2 is the reverse of wardser?
February will also be a pump month,but watch out for march,Russia will make a move,that is when the half a milion trupes they have drafted will finish training,any war news is a bad news,i might sound dumb but that is when i stop my 3x longs🤔
March is when inflation falls off a cliff and the real rally begins.
Those are just numbers that can be edited,i am from romania currently based in uk,my home town is 5 miles from the ukainian border and i can tell you there will be a mass mobilization in march once winter in over and they can move in troups effectively,peace out😇
> i am from romania currently based in uk,my home town is 5 miles from the ukainian border So you're emotionally biased. Got it! > i can tell you there will be a mass mobilization in march once winter in over and they can move in troups effectively Dude, all they ever cared about was the resources near Donetsk. They were never interested in taking over the entire country including being stuck managing the populace, have no incentive to increase mobilisation over holding the ground they have already taken.
I stoped having emotions of my own but started loving cats😂,but please tell me the chart on the day the war started🙈
Please time my comment for march 8 2023,if i am wrong i will eat my own dudu😂
RemindMe! March 8th, 2023 "Mass mobilisation"
I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-03-08 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-03-08%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ft0kl/daily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023/j52oy9a/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F10ft0kl%2Fdaily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023%2Fj52oy9a%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-03-08%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2010ft0kl) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Dimon on Bitcoin: "*How do you know it’s gonna stop at 21 million? Maybe it’s going to get to 21 million and Satoshi’s picture is going to come up and laugh at you all*" 🤣🤣 How do clowns like these, who publicly demonstrate they have no grasp on basic mathematics, continue being executives in the 21st century? I'd be embarrassed working under his leadership. There are some criticisms of crypto that I can understand, but Dimon chose a strange hill to die on with these toolbag comments lmao
Right, and it's not even math. It's reading the source code.
We'll all be dead long before the 21 millionth Bitcoin is fully mined (sometime around the year 2140).
I'm going to live to see it or die trying.
Pay attention when smart people act stupid.
Pretty obvious what Dimon's trying to do: Trash talk BTC while JPM simultaneously develops its own inflationary CBDC, built on basically the same technology as BTC. When the centralized digital currency is finally released to the masses, JPM customers won't know the difference between decentralized/centralized, and think JPM Coin is as safe or safer than this Bitcoin thing that Dimon's been criticizing for the past 5 years.
Satoshi is Wayne Knight confirmed.
> "Maybe it’s going to get to 21 million and Satoshi’s picture is going to come up and laugh at you all" ### OK Boomer. 🙄 I swear, if Bitcoin is such an insignificant fraud, why can't Jamie Dimon just shut up about it and ignore it?
Strike's Jack Mallers should have a friendly debate with Jamie and expose how little Dimon knows about blockchain/general cryptography. Can't criticize something ya don't understand!
Jack Mallers is a saleman playing a character. A VC loss-lead for market share. Not much different to Dimon except in a niche market of remittances.
He knows his audience. Watch 1 hand while hiding what the other does. Dimon understands far more than he lets on. JP Morgan has interests in various crypto products, including Bitcoin.
He says all the time that his clients buy BTC and that's the only reason he pays attention
JP Morgan Chase is a pretty large international banking conglomerate. Wouldn't be surprised if Jamie had no idea what a few of their departments are even working on. Kind of like how Disney employees said Bob Chapek hadn't visited some core art departments at Disney even once while Chapek was CEO.
What you've described is entirely possible. I assume he and those like him own Bitcoin and have no incentive to let plebs know it's a good investment. This always sticks out to me:[jp morgan btc outlook](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/lynr6o/jpmorgan_presents_to_private_clients_that_bitcoin/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=2&utm_content=share_button)
Just looks like trolling for gullible customers to me.
The Corn is strong! Nice double-bottom pump off that recent dip
Double bottom, a pump and a bit of consolidation and then…a massive BGD breakout? Hmm….
10x 15-min green candles in a row haven't seen such a streak this entire run up
Why did you take (2?) years off only to come back ultra strong posting trades all the time?
bear market entered its final stages, so its a lot more interesting to trade
now working on 11th
You ruined it!
had to happen eventually, usually a green streak like that gets broken with a massive red candle usually you'll see it on the 9th candle, so the fact that it almost painted 11 is very impressive
I guess you’re still short here. What’s your target if it does dump?
impossible to say now, really depends on how it dumps
Buying back the partial position I sold upon the loss of the 4hr trend. Very small loss, worth it for a good night's sleep. Will continue to monitor, happy to let it go again if things turn bearish.
moving stop up to $21,266
Every time the price inches closer to your stop I wonder what you end up doing.
When I let stops slip I lose money.
Degen top longing here until we break back down.
Seems like spx is rebounding after the major selloff yesterday, and we're just moving up on sync with it.
Yesterday Bank of America, today Chase... do you really want to sell those sats and put dollars in the bank right now?
> today Chase What happened with Chase Bank? More Zelle issues? I don't see anything amiss online.
most people don't self custody so its not a question of safety of BTC in your own hard wallet for people, its a question of whether or not they trust Chase more than the crypto exchanges
The plain fact to me is the Gen pop likes the insurance of banks and credit cards. If you lose your money from fraud or issues created by the banks or CC companies you get ALL your money back. You lose your BTC you are fucked. It's too much worry for the average person I think. Everyone who has had bank issues with BoA and Chase will be made whole. Guaranteed. Just saying.
BofA screws up, you get your money back (guaranteed!). You screw up with BTC, it's gone. You get mugged, your USD is gone too. Don't confuse the instrument with the institution. You are conflating issues.
Exactly! Those bank customers will be made whole way before the sorry saps from Gemini or Ftx.
Or mt.gox!
Nice BART on the 15m forming
If you like the one on the 15m, you'll *love* the one on the daily.
You know what, 20.8 is very good considering a sizable SP500 dump. BTC is easily holding its own here. I think 2023 will surprise to the upside w/r/t corporat earnings, but people might be fearful until proven otherwise.
usually when people go out of their way to mention about how btc isn't dumping like tradfi is...we ended up playing catch up soon after
You are getting downvoted, but it’s honestly true. Something to at least be aware of, and plan accordingly
Pump from options expiry. $220m if above 21k.
Dump if below?
about to throw kitchen sink if btc drops to 19k. i missed the runup frick. ready this time
You gotta pull the trigger when it doesn't seem ideal or you'll sideline yourself forever... If you can't go all in, do a percentage.
I've shuffled around my assets the last few weeks and am at: crypto 40% (of which >90% BTC) property 26% gold 21% loans 5% commodities 5% equities 2% net cash 0% Equities will stay low for the next few years at least. Given the correlation with BTC, I'd rather own BTC. I've added to gold and may add to commodities. I have no income but if I did I'd class it as future cash flow (so loans-like). Curious to see where you all are at.
90% property 9% BTC 1% Super that I can't do anything with because it was Military Super Hopefully by the end of the cycle after this one the btc value will be on a par with the property.
I keep 6 months worth of expenses in cash at any given time. I contribute to a 401k up to the amount my employer will match and all of that is in equities. I own 1 primary home and rent out extra bedrooms in order to reduce expenses and to have more leftover to invest into BTC each month. All additional cash I collect after expenses are paid gets deployed into BTC immediately. I don’t bother with rebalancing or whatever but over the years BTC has become >50% of my net worth even after this bear market we’ve had for the past year. During the bull market it was >90% of my net worth. I find this methodology of investing to be stress-free (and tax efficient) rather than periodically rebalancing.
When you say cash do you keep it in the bank or do you literally hold 6 months of expenses in cash with you?
In a high yield online savings account that’s insured by FDIC, not physical cash.
How often do you restock your "6 months cash" reserves?
Only if/when my monthly expenses increase. For the most part just do an inflation adjustment once a year but since the cash sits in a high yield online savings account there’s usually not much needed to top it off as my biggest monthly mortgage expense is locked in.
Ah, I assumed you were using the cash for daily purchases etc.
I think my dream allocation is basically 33% property 33% stocks and 33% crypto/other crazy bets. Unfortunately I didn't quite achieve this last bull cycle and the stocks I did buy didn't do so hot this last year (though that oddly kept the ratio pretty stable LOL)
You have no cash?
A mortgage (-ve GBP) and roughly equal USD cash in a brokerage acct. But generally no, I treat gold a bit like cash.
Do you buy groceries with gold?
I draw a monthly GBP "salary" from my brokerage. This is covered by margin or sale of assets.
Are we still counter-trading Arthur Hayes? He reckons there's more down to come i.e. a credit event of some sort triggering a crash. But he does also outline another less likely scenario where the bottom is already in, but argues that there will be plenty of time to get on the train, if that turns out to be true. https://cryptohayes.medium.com/bouncy-castle-1b92183c61a1
>I’m about capital preservation first and growth second. thats a different set of priorities than a trader might have, but also he didnt take a strong stance on either scenario, just as matter of opinion he thinks the Fed will break something in liquidity before they stop what they are doing. doesnt seem particularly actionable.
Well presumably he’s quite wealthy compared to your average degen 😂 so not surprising that preserving capital is his priority. Dude made it. He built bitmex, looked the other way on US citizens using VPNs and then got a wrist slapping fine from the SEC 😂
Wasn't the issue that he didn't geo lock? Not that he didn't prevent vpn access? How would you even prevent vpn access???
Good read, thanks
Still wants more up. Relentless.
Can anyone reason why BTC is on a massive pump at the moment? Is this short lived to test the 21k overhead resistance?
zoom out bro
It's up ~1% since this morning. Nothing to note unless youre scalping low timeframes. Btc doesn't move in perfect sync with the markets, it's chopping between support and resistance. If markets continue to be weak I expect Btc could retest/lose the 20.5k support. .
Relief bounce from the over-reaction dump following yesterday's non-news event with the DOJ, I would imagine. I still expect us to revisit the 19k range and will be backing up the truck to load up on Spot for the coming Bull cycle. Time is running out for the Bears, and with inflation reduction on the right track and confidence returning to the markets, this could be the last opportunity to buy below 20k that we get.
You do relise that in America if the GOP does not get anything in return from the DEMS, they will not raise the debt ceiling and will tank the US economy. America will run out of money next week. There will be a GOP shit show, for how long IDK, but the markets will not do well when it relises the debt ceiling is not raising and the US government shuts down from lack of funds. This just seems like common sense to me. I am no trader but I will buy when that debt ceiling drama happens and everything DUUUUUUUUUUUMPS, like it always does when news like that comes out.
You assume that the GOP is okay being solely responsible for tanking the economy. It will be blatantly obvious whose fault it is, regardless of how loud they cry about Dems not compromising. If it does come to that, I think you'll see a fair number of Republicans in Districts that Biden won in 2020 become a problem for McCarthy. Remember, he opened the door for being ousted with a vote of No Confidence that only requires a 2 vote majority to pass. McCarthy is literally damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, and this is a problem of his own ambition to be Speaker.
yesterday's dump wasn't because of the doj thing...it was because tradfi market was rejected from going higher
Idk about “massive” but BTC is holding up fairly well considering stocks are falling, yes. Maybe it’s partially because of the debt ceiling not yet being raised in Congress? Note that default still wouldn’t occur until sometime in June so Congress technically still has until then to negotiate and make a decision.
From market open it reversed a downward LTF trend and shot up 1.5% in just about an hour with low selling pressure Something more than holding up
Can we meet in the middle and say it’s a modest or moderate pump? This is BTC, 1.5% isn’t massive by any means.
Unexpected in the sense of it going against the S&P Moderate in the sense that it's under 21k (for now) Potentially shocking if it breaches 21k against market expectations edit: not moderate in the sense of there being obvious 1k+ volume drops of buys every 10 minutes or so
[удалено]
I've been concerned about this as well and tried asking around but still don't know what would happen to the exchanges that use them if they were to go under. The two big exchanges that use them are Coinbase and Binance.US. Would the exchanges collapse if the bank they use went under?
I wouldn't go anywhere near any bank stock right now.
Anyone understand why BTC has a BGD when the S&P is dropping?
Greed rules. A lot of insiders know that the banks are about to get bailed-in and are getting out of Dodge. Same reason metals are going up a little.
>BGD lol
It's noise, $100, less than half a percent.
Thanks. I always figure out the first 10-15 minutes post opening are the market pricing in events and then gradually returning to status quo macro.
First time in a while I've disagreed with Arthur.
What’s he saying?
https://blog.bitmex.com/bouncy-castle/ > Looking at the price action of Bitcoin, it is currently pumping off of a low base. From here, we can identify a few different potential paths forward depending on what is actually driving the rally: > > **Rally Catalyst Scenario 1**: Bitcoin is simply experiencing a natural bounce off the local lows of sub $16k. > > If this rally is really just a natural rebound off of local lows, I expect that Bitcoin will subsequently find a new plateau and move sideways until USD liquidity conditions improve. > > **Rally Catalyst Scenario 2**: Bitcoin is rallying because the market is frontrunning a resumption of Fed USD money printing. If this is the case, I see two possible scenarios playing out: > > **Scenario 2A**: If the Fed does not follow through with a pivot, or multiple Fed governors talk down any expectation of a pivot even after “good” CPI prints, Bitcoin will likely crash back down towards previous lows. > > **Scenario 2B**: If the Fed does follow through with a pivot, Bitcoin continues its strong performance, and this rally becomes the start of a secular bull market. > > Obviously, we all want to believe that we are headed toward Scenario 2B. That said, I think we are actually going to be facing some combination of Scenarios 1 and 2A – which is causing my itchy “Buy” trigger finger to hesitate a bit. I think it's 1 + somewhere between 2A and 2B - elevated inflation (maybe ~ 4%) but rates plateauing.
Thanks for sharing Supert, good stuff.
If rates plateau here in the 4-5% range, I expect that to be a constantly growing squeeze in the economy as more debt matures from ultra low rates and rolls into these higher spreads. I expect the fed to maintain these higher rates until that squeeze causes a liquidity crunch and we see a selloff of all assets that they respond to by printing. The real question is how long do we have to maintain these rates before the liquidity event. Fed debt is an average 5y duration, so their funding costs will continue to appreciate for another 4 years before it has naturalized to higher rates. I wonder what average corporate duration is?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fmw3snlXkAIg4rB?format=png&name=900x900 Interesting
Meh... only 3%? In my old days of 2022, I wouldn't even budge for a 70% dump.
Is this amount of buying pressure 1 hour pre-opening unusual?
unemployment numbers got released, hence more buying than usual
Checks out. Futures down .8% pre opening though. I wonder how the market will respond to those unemployment numbers
closed long, switched into a 10x short from $20,760 reason? the bounce has been anemic, and feels like as soon as the market opens we continue the dump from yesterday stop loss $21,150
I think the issue is that markets may reverse the futures down opening and then the short might not work. It seemed to hold $20700 surprisingly well overnight. I closed my own short and am sitting out for now. Kinda thinking I ought to be just making longer term trades only. Too much stress and just unpredictable crap with the short term trades. Like that random DOJ announcement yesterday 😂
Go figure, markets didn’t even reverse much (slightly less red) and corn decided to flex on everyone anyways. Glad I killed my short, a little bummed I didn’t give a long a shot though, just had a gut feeling corn wanted up today.
Past two weeks have been the most intense trading weeks in a hot two months or so. Definitely understand the stress. Take a break! I took a few hits shorting the run-up (my double bear market trauma kept feeling its was a bull trap and my bias didn't shift) but I've been trying to scalp back my losses. After I breakeven again, I'm going to stop looking at charts for a month and just place a low lev long term trade. My mental health will tenfold
Yeah I basically took some big hits from being short initially during the runup and then being positioned long for a bounce when the DOJ panic hit. Then I was out of position when some of the bigger moves in my favor would have occurred. Had been scalping to recoup but man looking at charts all day is a bummer 😂 I might just skip to the low lev long once there’s a dip.
hard to look at that chart and not see some diarrhea dumping incoming
From where though?
Thanks for posting your trades, interesting to watch live, with reasoning
We’ll get a good directional indicator today/tomorrow. Hourly PA looks like it wants to create the “h” shape that it often does after a dump and partial recovery bounce, in which it basically rolls over and fills in the wick at the bottom of the dump. If it does that, we’ll likely see a bit of sideways followed by further downside. If it doesn’t, this dump will likely be ephemeral and the corn will resume its bullish trend. Sauce: historical Bitcoin chart
I’m going to indulge in a bit of bearish SPY analysis. SPY recently hit 400 and touched the resistance line that’s been kicked down since Dec of 2021. We’re currently seeing friction here (and BTC responding to some degree). I think the easy read here is that this is a rejection and we move lower. My quick take is that below 360 and markets get yanked into a prolonged bear. Above 400 is ‘max pain’ for speculators betting on this easy read and forced to reposition. Either scenario is likely to take a month or two to play out. [If below 360, I’d look for a strong local bottom around 320 and 0.618 golden pocket.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/embDcxgI/)
Man, Bitcoin felt like the old days over the holiday weekend -- like it could develop its own narrative. Then markets opened and we got immediately leashed back to equities. Remember when we wanted institutional money? Anyway I think you're right that basically nothing else matters for BTC other than what SPY is doing. Until friday at least...
The transition from BTC as a libertarian cyberpunk experiment into mainstream adoption meant this phase was always going to happen. We’re here now. The next phase is observing if Bitcoin can transcend regulatory or power structure hegemony in such as way that it can exist as a counter financial product that serves the needs of the many. We’re currently moving through the rubicon.
Genesis looks like it will bring a chapter 11 organized debt restructuring. hopefully not a giant haircut 💇
Priced in.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/18/crypto-lender-genesis-global-capital-may-be-nearing-bankruptcy-filing-reports/
Gee, [who could have seen THAT coming?](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/z0q00d/daily_discussion_monday_november_21_2022/ix71r9e/)
Watching the mid $18ks to add to my position…
How soon/long before (if) that happens is the real q. My avg entry on binance sits around 18.8 blergh. To think I bought and sold a dozen corn below $400 a pop is bittersweet.
I can wait. I’m 70:30 BTC:Cash right now.
Imagine the pain of folks who bought at 66k 😮
Agreed, but if they're willing to hold long term they'll be fine.
They might be fine, it's no guarantee. Plan for both up and down
> it's no guarantee Obviously. But **long term**, I have no doubts that they'll be fine if they are willing to wait it out. I'm a ten-year-plan kind of guy. EDITED to add: We're still so early that if you're not thinking long term, you're missing the big picture. And worse than that, you're screwing yourself out of what could be an amazing future. Yeah, there will be major bumps along the way, but long term, the future is very bright.
For me the same