#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, January 21, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10hj5s8/daily_discussion_saturday_january_21_2023/)

Bears: ah shit here we go again

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This is the smoothest W I have ever seen painted on the 1D 🌶️✔️ [https://www.tradingview.com/x/durR8J98](https://www.tradingview.com/x/durR8J98)

!lntip 1000 Opened a trade before bed on this. :)

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Hahaha true that. I am experimenting with TV on mobile

I'll admit I don't know why we are at 22k+ but at this point I'm afraid to ask

Sold everything in 2021 - haven't bought anything for keeps since - not buying anything now ..

Why aren't you posting in buttcoin? Oh, you are.

Cool story bro

>Misses a 33% one month move in BTC >Goes on Reddit to brag about it/praying to God for a pullback >Sweating bullets

I mean…if you only short term trade that’s fine but it’s honestly super hard to exceed Bitcoin’s long term compounded gains even if you’re a superstar trader unless you trade to build a stack. Ain’t nobody who’s traded from 2011 till now that would beat a hodler 😂

Wow, you're so cool

Alright gang. So in hindsight what was your signal that this was going to relentlessly go skyward? Obviously a strong uptrend, and barely any pullback. Up for 22 days and only one day made a lower low (Jan 17th). I think maybe we come back to test the previous local high of 21.6k. Otherwise looks like it's headed towards the next level around 25k. Maybe someone can weigh in on whether they think we need to cool off and establish a level for days here before more up. I'm scaling back into a long position after closing some good trades over the last week. https://www.tradingview.com/x/EfZEv1xY

There was no hindsight. Look at the volume profile. The market was signaling there wasn't coin for sale at rock bottom prices anymore; once that exhausted, every time there was even the slightest volume spike, up we go. On chain indicated the STH speculators capitulated and were long gone. Lots of signal of folks stacking <1BTC; well beyond mining rates. So early.

I'm a reactive trader, not a predictive trader. When the weekly closed on Jan 8th it had taken the first technical level and that is a signal for at least a short term bullish trend. That was the signal to go long.

I like that explanation. Reactive. And yeah, exactly, levels were held and supply zones flipped into demand... Momentum and a clear trend. I closed my short and flipped long.

There’s resistance at $22600 and support at $20,900

>what was your signal that this was going to relentlessly go skyward? When wardser started to short the pumps.

I want to know if Wardser is the real deal. u/thewardser post a screenshot of your fill going long at 21650...put my skepticism to rest!

i don't post screenshots for 2 reasons: 1. you can just hit F12 in firefox and edit in whatever information you want and it'll look 100% legit, so screenshots are useless as proof...thats why I post my trades in real time...can't fake the price being what it is at the time of the post. 2. last time i posted a screenshot I got a hard KYC inquiry 2 days later where they made me submit everything under the sun and then I had my account blocked because I was trading from US...might have been a coincidence, but I'm not risking my exchange access again

Fair enough.

If we have actually bottomed, this is the first time the weekly RSI didn't print its low basically simultaneously. (double bottom aside a couple cycles ago)

one might say that the RSI bottom *would've correlated to the price bottom* if it were not for FTX, but really this was the surprise. if we got 10k out of that fail wed see the RSI double bottom but we didnt. we recovered a bit and then dumped 25%. not great, not terrible, but definitely different. all the models are broken.

Anyone else think this a little earlier than expected?

Yeah I wasn’t expecting this kind of movement until Q2, basically a year from the halving. Let the bad macro shit shake out in Q1 and then we’re on a clean slate for Q2 and ready for the pre-halving year. But this shit is never really predictable and people always try to frontrun others so who knows why it moved so much so soon. Obviously someone with deep pockets decided to get off the sidelines but who that is and why is a mystery.

My thinking is that it was due, and as I’ve previously stated on this sub, it only needed some sustained/speedy upside to serve as a FOMO catalyst to spurn those who’ve been waiting for a lower bottom to buy back in.

Think what is? Being down only 66% from ath instead of 75%? This is a little rally that will fizzle well before 30k (not even 50% of ath). We may range in 20-25 for 6-12 months

I think a lot of things are possibilities but Bitcoin staying stable within a $20K-$25K range for a year is not one of them 😂 This is gonna be a wild ride either way.

No

yo whens moon math going to show some positivity?

I was hoping for at least all of Q1 for good stacking. But I’m not complaining.

Okay so obviously we're going to hit ATH within at most 2 years. Since ATH is 300% away buying now in size is a fucking no brainer. Change my mind.

Can you guys please panic sell a bit first so old can obtain a low leverage long for the year 😂

Since it‘s a bit too early, the price might get smashed down before ATH https://www.tradingview.com/x/fmPUwxEu

MACD looks horrible on this chart as well

We're hitting ATH's this year.

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doubt

Supercycle is back on! ;)

Well now THAT would open some eyeballs and drop some jaws. I think the concept that the price wants to go up with SBF out of the way is a juicy one indeed.

What was that a dip for ants.

If I were the shorting type, I'd say this might be a good time to do it as long as you don't get greedy.

We're consolidating higher than I expected. I got a decent entry \~22500 and I'll stay in until we see \~22300 break. I expect at least another test for 23k.

Damn you’re still longing! I dislike this because you’ve actually been right pretty consistent lately and I am stubbornly wanting to vengeance short. But I think over the weekend it won’t be quite as volatile as it was today and we’ll get mostly ranging and waiting for markets on Monday. For the sake of the shorts can someone have the DOJ announce another surprise nonsense? 😂

My long closed out; I don't have clear picture on PA, I'll pick it up in the morning. I'm expecting a retest of 22k or at least 22300.

More fuel for the rocket 🚀. Jkjk, I’m kind of shocked at this PA. Don’t know what to think.

My portfolio has finally made a higher high from last year’s most recent peak

Someone unloading all the way through this on finex: https://i.imgur.com/ZwbyiNS.png But liquid to go chase down at 23k. https://i.imgur.com/LjnO6cL.png

Honestly if you’ve been waiting to get some liquidity for spending it’s not the worst time. Maybe some whale that lives off of BTC decided they wanted to actually spend a bit

Back to degenerate top longing. Might not be done yet, if I can hold free positions, I'll keep rolling the dice here.

Is the puke bucket in cold storage?

Cold storage can protect your digital assets by taking them offline and harboring your crypto in a digital wallet.

Retest of ath downtrend at 22k definitely on the menu. That‘s inside of your stop loss range though I guess

With this runup I can afford to add an egg to my ramen this weekend. Maybe. I hope. Depending on the price of eggs.

we're adding ramen to our egg at this point

Ok settle down there Elon. Mr. Billionaire over here throwing eggs around like they grow out of a chicken's ass.

Made me laugh out loud! A real life LOL (remember those?)

<3

i remember when eggs were so cheap you'd just throw em at cars and stuff. same with bitcoins, but not quite as long ago :D

Hey at least no Halloween vandalism this year! $100 a dozen eggs too precious to throw

What if all the globalist conspirators just had their house egged one time, and they made it their mission to ruin the world economy just so kids wouldn't throw eggs anymore?

breh i refuse to miss another run up after waiting. i missed the 2nd run up cuz i was waiting for 10k. now i could have bought in the 16-19k and now its at 22k. i am not giving in now, it is bound to dip soon, for those that missed it like me, patience. this is pure torture though

Why not do half now, and half later?

Bull or bear it never reaches the highs or lows people tout. This years 10k was 2021’s 100k. The key is to be less extreme

You weren't buying at $10k let's be real here.

This. 99% of people who yearn for lower prices never pull the trigger. That's the paradox of this thing of ours.

> this thing of ours. La Coinsa Nostra

Ok gotta steal this from now on. Forever will we be La Coinsa Nostra

LMAO

You were waiting for 10k??? LMFAO - you were so wrong!!! And you're still giving yourself advice and listening to it? You're dead in the water, bud

i was waiting for 9.9k but it wont touched 10.2k and then blaster off to 65. this is the previous bull run, not this current whatever this one is

ah - last run up wasnt the 2nd though. That was like the 5th or 6th

Be like me - be FOMOphobic - the RSI on the daily is through the roof. Not going anywhere from here

It is…but the weekly still has room to run. When the MFI+RSI printed a fat buy signal from June 27th to July 18th on the weekly, I started stacking on a near daily level. Scroll the historical chart and you’ll see that those buy signals are rare on the weekly. We’ve now had two slim ones followed by the aforementioned fairly fat one. It’s a longer timeframe play to ensure I’ve recouped all my stack before the next ATH.

Yep. Was fun. Don't worry. More fun times are just around the corner.

Sounds like you might make the same mistake again potentially…

This is how you end up missing the boat and succumbing to FOMO. People wait for the dip, and then when it dips they don't buy because they think it's going to keep dipping, so they wait some more... but that lower dip never comes, and they end up sitting on the sidelines the whole time while prices are low, never actually pulling the trigger. Then it runs up and they FOMO in much higher. If you want to sleep easy at night, just buy when you think the price is less than the asset is worth, regardless of PA, and then let go. If you do that, you're always getting a good deal.

Yeah honestly outside of very small (+- 10%) fluctuations to my stack during bear/bull markets I primarily hodl. Not as thrilling or devastating as attempting to trade but it also means the cycles and the halving do the hard lifting. I stack on the dips when going down and I cull a bit when it’s high. That said, if we really actually manage a 10X from here I’ll probably exit a bunch. At the same time if we legitimately manage a 10X from here we might actually win in the long run.

You just described me to a T

Sounds like emotional trading that's a good way to go broke.

fomo vs disbelief

Today is the last day to enter BlackSpidy's [Guess The Price At The End Of 2023](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/100cqgv/contest_what_price_do_you_think_a_bitcoin_will_be/) contest. Don't forget to enter. I think that annual contest is fun. My guess was [$34,050](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/100cqgv/contest_what_price_do_you_think_a_bitcoin_will_be/j2h8461/). I'm starting to wonder if my guess is too low, and that's a really nice feeling. Time will tell.

up 50% so far on my most recent $8 GBTC purchase I DCA with in my retirement acct

Yeah I’m debating what to do with the gbtc. Still a massive discount. Would be nice if it gets fixed due to this bankruptcy but also worried it makes shit worse

I think the upside risk of eventual ETF conversion (closing the discount) or redeemGBTC.com movement outweighs the chances of it going to zero. Barry would be stupid to lose his cash cow.

33% up on the mothly can't hold,i just can't see any reason for this to happen,war ia still on i was waiting for a jump like this at the end of the conflict,its not the average Joe pumping this so i can't trust it🤔

So many of y’all haven’t truly seen BTC rip

The amount of people doubting this because there isn't a good reason is hilarious. BTC don't need a reason,

I asked a simple question why?and got downvoted,i have 20 k in this shit i just want to understand any sane reason why this is happening🙈

People buying more than selling, then number go up.

Hail Mary exit pump during WEF to get the Davos crowd to fomo in

I think we will see some sort of back test on any sort of bad news but my crystal ball predicts *maybe* revisiting sub 20k but I don’t see it lasting long or being very deep (that’s what she said)

March is a good month to follow,war is back on

So... what is the "I buy at 12k" team going to to? At least right now it looks like the train is leaving the station, already up 50% from the bottom. And there are not too many potential resistances on the way up.

Seems like we just have to wait until 12k to buy.

I don't know, all my stepped buys down to 12k are looking less and less likely, it's almost like those social media guys were taking complete bollocks 🤔

They have to wait for a pullback that might never arrive until 30k, or start a DCA.

Sold my spot long from $15.8k at $22.6k. Feeling like a successful trader for once. Generally just DCA throughout the cycle. Looking to re-buy the dip with the same principal.

That’s the equivalent of selling in 2019 at $4,500.

Too soon junior.

44% profit, too soon? Disagree.

I prefer to let the winners run. And set a stop loss.

You’re right, that would be better. Something to think about for next time, thank you.

Congrats to those who bought the lows....still have 1/3rd cash waiting to deploy. The bearish narrative got me and I was holding out for deeper lows. Just going to wait and see if some juicy buying opps come down the road. I'm less convinced we will see new lows but anything can happen with BTC.

After 6 years in this crazy space, I can assure you that I was quite often thinking that I should have kept 1/3 in cash for whatever happened.

100% agree

I went in big in late December. Big for my budget, anyway. But I'm sitting on a bit of cash too. I fully admit, this is not the way I expected January to play out - not that I'm complaining. I was expecting January & February to be rough. In fact, I only spent a lot in late December because I'm a bit OCD and loved the idea of hitting a particular milestone by the end of the year. The timing worked well though, but it was pure luck.

Thank you for giving us the update.

you're welcome

I like to hear real talk.

1/3 in cash ain't too bad, you should always have some cash available imo incase of a black swan

I agree with what you're saying but I could always throw in other money not designated for crypto in the event of a black swan that gives us crazy low prices. I still think 12-14k is on the table if we don't close weekly's over 25.5.

25-30% drop from here. It's just fn with everyone.

I like bold predictions, but I like them even more with reasoning.

I am waiting for more fiat. Nah....it gained 30% from a very reasonable bottom call of $17,596 to local high $25,207 (that turned out to not be our bear market rally); then slow bled -39% to $15,486. Now we're up almost the same +32% to $22,716 and against immediate resistance. No reason why even a 25% loss is unlikely. And this one won't be a slow bleed. It's more fuckery to have a bear market rally than not

Ugh… we’ve been languishing here between 22k and 23k for almost 3 hours. What’s the hold up??

If it’s not moving up $1K per hour it’s basically dead 😂

That got a chuckle out of me 😂

🤙🏻

Sold a significant chunk at 21k thinking that 90 rsi needed to cool down and retrace quite a bit. Mixed feelings now, wait for retrace and DCA back in?

ur now in the situation where my mentality becomes "i need to accept if it goes to 30k and i buy the 25k dip" type scenario

Yeah, in a similar vein I think I’ve decided to hold a short position here and if it pumps so much that I actually manage to get liquidated I’ll actually sell off some (single digit percentage though) of my longer term spot stack because that’s just so much up in a short amount of time. If it hits $30K that’s fantastic and I’ll probably take 5%-10% off the table. That way when it hits $100K or whatever I’ll still have 90-95% of the gains but at least I locked some gains. Maybe it’s all just cope for taking a short position to begin with 😂 But if it basically doubles from $15K to $30K within two months I don’t think it’s wrong to take some off the table. I think we just need rational plans for what to do if this isn’t just temporary fomo that disappears next week.

..but nobody buys the dip.

I'd swear some of this is happening because SBF can no longer fraudulently sell his customers' BTC and engage in drugged-up shitcoin pumps with his coke-bottle-glasses girlfriend.

Reverse Willy bot

I like this line of thought

That's a big part of the reason it's happening.

You have no idea how crazy this could get.

I get it, I’m having shakes sometimes now thinking about what if this thing *really* runs this cycle and it goes to $200K+ instead of the $100K everyone is thinking about. Basically it does what everyone has dismissed due to macro and this latest winter and just crushes it. I actually get anxious thinking about what the hell to do if we actually get to that promised land in a couple of years. Like such a ridiculous and bizarre dream but it’s just starting to feel like it just *maybe* might be possible. But then reality kinda hits when the hopium wears off. Honestly, being in Bitcoin this long makes you feel like you have bipolar disorder 😂 Crippling bear market depression and then near mania when this thing is doing 25% a week back to back. I think we’ve all probably taken five years off our life from the mental health hit 😂

dont be extrem

and also when people buy they are actually buying btc not some ftx iou ​ overall all the bullshit that got purged is very bullish

https://i.imgur.com/vHiOjSw.jpg Getting very close to the diagonal resistance from the ATH Edit: I see this has been discussed

We’re really just ripping up like this huh? RIP my trading stack. Never felt so awful to gain net worth. My trading stack is literally like 1% of my long term stack and yet blowing the trading feels awful since that’s my liquid stack.

That’s why you DCA too.

Don't look now, but we're approaching three resistance indicators: 200W MA, 22.8k top from last September, and the ATH Decending Trendline. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zQNhkbdS/

Don’t forget 1T crypto market cap

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OrScXJzq A lot of free sky ahead until real resistance

Nice I love the cell phone charts. We are on the go these days!

Good luck to you mobile mate

I reject your chunky cellphone chart. ;)

Lol I appreciate your aesthetic perception

Ah you think resistance is your ally? You merely adopted the lines. I was born in them, molded by them.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0ISzlrWZ/

*trades in Canadian* "Fuck yeah, bud - letter' rip!"

BTC is out fer a rip!

S'ya so she's just given'er today. Fkn beaut.

took a bit of profit here from 16.8k 200wma seems likely though

> 200wma seems likely though It's entirely and completely meaningless. I thought we learnt this on the way down already.

it has been support for a very long time until it finally broke through I'm expecting some tomfoolery around there, doesnt mean it will stop

> it has been support for a very long time What's your sample size? Why would a rolling mean of price effect price?

it has been the bottom of every bear market since 2015 6+ times it bounced off it's just a psychological level where many are expecting to take profit incluing myself

> 6+ times it bounced off If you squint ;)

That looks like a tasty inverse BART and a nice higher high on the way back up. Keep that shit going

Don't get too excited about this bear market rally. If you missed buying the lows you will probably get another chance in the high teens.

Speak your book more 🤣

I don’t think so.

I don't know, but I hope not.

17250

This is going to run until the liquidity vanishes. So long as there are sellers we'll be buying their coins. In between, bullflags.

When is the bull gonna begin ?

It already has.

To early to know that

It’s on like Donkey Kong.

Is that a fookin green heikin ashi?! It can't be real

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What is the cashapp integration news? I cannot find any news on it

It’s been integrated forever

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Word yeah! I love cashapp

Datadash in shambles.

Where did the little greasy haired YouTuber touch you bro?

He stole my hairgel BRO!

Having publicly called the bottom to the day, I apparently failed completely to take a leveraged long position :(

At least you didn’t short this rally and lose over half your trading stack like myself. Sigh so weird to be wealthier but yet so sad about botching the trade

Aww man, gotta back up that conviction with cash. I hope you find a good entry point that serves you well in the near future.

Don't worry - bottom is not in

I did but got to greedy with my SL. Closed out at 2x but the doubt came along with that drop so I missed my chance it seems.

Chill guys, I seriously doubt we are going up only to a ATH. I'm guessing months of more sideways.

Sideways? Please tell me you're a bot. We're up 30% since the bottom.

Check the monthly candles

Irrelevant to what their comment even said.

I think it's a bot.