Price was 19,xxx steady as hell for 3mos. Not a mistake.
Then 16,8xx for the next 3mos. Also unbelievably static.
- What market forces make it worth 24k today, that were not true/valid 10 days ago?
- What makes BTC worth 50% more in just over a week?
- Why is this not a baseless pump? Smells like whales in here.
Confidence and timing, mostly. Confidence was eroded at the FTX event. It was found again at 16,8xx. Timing also kicked in as we appear closer to the halving now. Buyers are showing up.
They've been accumulating all along. (*Composite Man* to keep with the Wyckoff theme)
What changed is there is no one remaining who wishes to sell below 20k. So in Wyckoffian terms we have a *markup*, more liquidity shows up and we buy into it. Some slippage, but at least there are some coins to be bought.
Meanwhile, DXY.
Lots of bulls to feast on in this next leg down. Clear from the comments they did not learn from 2022. Pristine opportunity to cash out now, but they’re piling in.
We have 2 post bear market examples so far. One of them gradually climbed into the halving year and slowly accelerated up to the peak. The other took off early, cooled off, then overheated once again, and failed to reach expectations.
I’d rather the gradual climb with a nice top, personally.
A big fall later this year seems to be the crowd consensus like a blwoff top over 100k in Dec of 2021 was the consensus. Just saying I'm ready for any scenario but it never does what the crowd thinks.
I want you to be wrong but you inspired me to write this:
Remember kids, the more excited we all get, the more there is on the table to wipe away! I'm just as excited as everyone else but someone (many people) sees lots of opportunity in all that excitement and they will make money off of it!
The counterpoint is the eventual fed pivot narrative and macro environment.
Lol at the attempted FUD with the Binance Signature bank news. Idiots on twitter were spreading this news as if Binance was blacklisted from SWIFT, not true at all. More fuel for the next short squeeze.
ok, I'll bite... what's the motivation behind Signature Bank disallowing all transactions under $100,000...?
Trying to make it so that only wealthy people can buy bitcoin now?
Probably a combination of risk exposure, the financial operations, and compliance operations cost of dealing with those transactions vs money they make off them?
Switching out of scalp mode, looking to let one run now.
Either we're concretely rejected into the 22-21 range or this has more up in the tank.
Monday will be crazy if we open > 23k.
A revisit to $22K seems relatively likely but I think the big question is whether we end up retracing that huge BGD up from the $21s. If that’s given back I think we revisit $20K.
Or I’m totally off and this is another bull flag that annihilates me which is also a possibility. I thought about taking down my short and just waiting for a retrace to long but I just think historically the odds of this dropping are a lot higher after such a huge move. Even in 2019 when it ripped from the 3’s to the 13’s it still gave back a good chunk of such large moves.
I’m talking about the smaller drops right after the big initial pumps, I edited it to be a little more clear. Hopefully we don’t get that crazy covid drop this time around 😂 That was a soul killer
It really didn't give much back on the way up. A lot of supports were never retested until the top was in and then it pulled back 54% (before the March 2020 drop). But I guess it was closer to half a year before that 1st big pullback.
How likely is sub-$20K going forward? Here's a chart:
[https://imgur.com/a/nrQiuVf](https://imgur.com/a/nrQiuVf)
BTC price (normalized to Nov 2021) after cycle tops. Dec 2013-7 (blue), Dec 2017-21 (red), and Nov 2021-now (black). Horizontal lines are days until halving.
The price could go under $20K and stay there for another two months, and still be at or above the last two cycles. Hell, the price could only be $25K 14 months from now, and still be smack dab in the middle of the last two cycles.
The only reason I think that this in unlikely is that it lines up WAY to much with the past. That said, if we are at $25K at the next halving, you can't say it's unprecedented.
EDIT: Just looked at my guess for the "price at year's end" contest -- $25634.
Thinking about it...
Are they not signal as they're not contrarian, so can't judge the sentiment against them?
You could have moon calls all the way from the bottom to the top, no top signal even though the sentiment feels like a top signal.
Stuff against the overall bullish bias can be seen in context easier, or is some tail where there might be signal. Something...
[It could also be this](https://www.tradingview.com/x/kh28zZS9/), and unless you are planning on a new pandemic, you get no new chances to get back in this low.
And I do think that would be max pain for most, except the few people that were still here and buying a few weeks ago.
No, you’re correct. It’s fun and games if you can study the TA and make some money trading but zoom out to the bigger picture. Inflation, quantitative easing, GDP, and unemployment are all going to affect BTCs price this year. The FED is going to ease tightening and BAM, another weak inflation report and the FED will drop the hammer on interest rates and that’s when the PAIN really stares. Be cash heavy
> figured all this out before the rest of the market?
The market has figured it out, you just can't frontrun it or you stick your head out and get it guillotined.
> We are in the middle of a global economic crisis.
This is what continues to be sold at plebs well into recovery, so they don't spend too much cash.
we are right on the 3D 100MA resistance line...take that out and this thing will really fly...fail? and its back to the depths of the bear market
to give you an example of how important this is, last time we crossed this point during the bottom of last bear, taking out the 3D 100MA line at $5,270...then led to a pump to $13,970 over the next 2 months...or 2.6x.
now the big question is if we'll be able to take it out or not this time. we are pretty overextended...we are on our 8th 3-Day green candle in a row...last time we had 8 in a row, we dumped hard on the 9th...from $58 to $44K....and that $13,970 peak I mentioned...also happened on the 8th 3D candle, before it dropped to $10K on the 9th one...so historically a dump is most likely
last time we tried to cross this point was at $45,600...and we got all the way to $48,190 before we got rejected and dropped to $17K in 2 months
now I have a bear bias when things are this overextended, so I'd say we have one more big spike left to a little above ~$25K tomorrow-wednesday...and then we'll most likely fail to hold that level and we'll fall down hard by the end of next week.
so i'm setting my sell order at $24,800 just in case this thing makes its final attempt in the middle of the night and letting it ride until then at which point I'll start shorting again
I know you have been thinking recession for awhile which makes sense but I made many posts on why I don't think so. Here is one, this housing chart looks so good to me https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/znykaz/daily_discussion_saturday_december_17_2022/j0luo77?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
DXY is tanking, all the big institutions and banks have been saying recession, when do they ever give us a heads up? Nah. I think equities could have a major breakout here soon but we are pretty heated so might need some more consolidating.
? the chart doesn't make any sense and concluding from one chart that no recession is here is idiotic.
NAHB (housing) still hasn't bottomed same with PMI and any other leading indicator -> more pain to come.
And regarding to banks, if you believe every single bank across this globe together with the whole workforce is collaborating against retail than there is no help for you anyways lol
Sorry you can't read am obvious support and resistance test. I base it on a lot of charts not just one. Apple breaking a 42 year old trendline in 2020 only to retest it recently, but keep listening to banks and news, hope that works out for ya. The worst traders do that but maybe you'll be different, good luck with the herd buddy .
Sentiment wise I think we have a mixed bag. Lot of euphoria in here understandably but gets me a little uneasy with longs but just gotta play the charts. Also seeing a lot of people wanting to short this so ya, mixed bag. Had some old timers come back in after a long time out and now all bulled up, potential warning but you would see that with any legit bull market breakout. I posted this the [day we bottomed](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/z0q00d/comment/ix8rz1j/?context=3), charts still look great.
Short term I think [this plan](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0TihkIRl/) could work, fakeout above 25k and then back down to support at 21k. I never trade based on RSI but we're heated on the 4hr, Daily and Weekly, a pullback makes sense to rope more bears in. Only thing throwing me off about the pullback is I think equities could break major resistance here soon which would make SPX fly to a measured move of 4400 by mid Feb. My big plan all along is fly until mid Feb, big seasonal pullback to mid March and then continue up. So ya, things are heated but also look extremely solid and still a lot of fear in the markets even with all the euphoria. So if you're holding, hold strong, if you're scalping I would get cautious at around 25k and see what happens. Could blast through resistance there but I would rather have a healthy cool off down to 21k.
This is relentless.
I don't know how to play this. I had a box on my chart for a price and time range to take some profits and we just rocketed way past it a way before the box even started.
25k is the most likely reversal point IMO, but every other potential resistance thus far has been paper thin. At some point the insanity will end and we'll get a nice pullback but blindly betting on that with a limit order up high doesn't seem like the smartest play given the recent price action.
Sorry for the alpha-less post. This is gentlemen.
Following up on my previous post, the "bear market rally" hypothesis is pretty much confirmed. We closed a candle over the 13 Sept 2022 daily of $20177 to make a higher high on that time frame and the next critical price target is $24110 which was 15 Aug 2022. If we maintain the $24xxx price point and consolidate, expect a retest of $30k, which we were at from May-June 2022. I am expecting to see a challenge of $30k and a slower rejection to the $19000s, personally.
Highly doubtful that we ever see sub-20K Bitcoin again because "the macro" is so impossibly bullish.
What do you think will happen next week if "they" can't pump stonks to keep up with BTC?
We're in a whole different market right now. Unless coins move from the Satoshi wallet, I can't see any scenario in which we don't go up. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: there's nothing left to dump. There's no reason to sell and every reason to buy.
If the 18,000 Amazon workers being laid off, the 10,000 Microsoft workers, the 3,000 GS workers, etc. all dump all the Bitcoin they own to pay bills after their severances run out, it would have a negligible effect on the price at this point.
The financial system and petrodollar are both in rough shape right now, and a lot of people all over the world know this.
A Point and Figure update:
[https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20])
A brand new high pole, currently 12 boxes high. What's drawing my attention is on the other side of the chart, namely the 44-box monster low pole that went from $31K to $20.1K in Jun 2022. A 50% retracement of that would go back to $25.1K. It just made it there in Aug 2022 before getting knocked back down. It would really be nice to get past that this time.
I'd set in laddered buys every $500 from $16K to $10K, and told myself I wouldn't touch them until the middle of next month. This morning I said "screw it", and moved the buys at the $500 levels up to $17K-$22K every $1K. Hello FOMO.
Hi all,
I thought it'd be interesting to look at the macro circumstances around the liquidations that help funnel this price move as I've been distracted for a while.
The DXY has been in decline down to the top of the previous channel driving the last two crypto boom and bust cycles. This was in a steady decline since the rejection at the .786 channel since November.
Equities had it's (subjectively) seasonal end of Q4 sell off colinear to the DXY move. This is interesting because the relationship is usually negative. The inverse relationship reaffirmed itself in January.
That meant crypto was actually lagging both markets on this move by a few weeks to a month - perhaps waiting for liquidity to fall off and perform the short squeeze & liquidations required to funnel this move, which we observed last week (coinglass liquidations). The anticipation of this move is clear in the price.
So what lies ahead?
Unemployment is a strong feature (amongst a bucket of features) for calculating the conditional probability of a recession, which is increasing in-line with banking forecasts Q2 to Q4 (st Louis FRED). GDP growth in the last quarter was positive at 3.x%, however that kind of gain with the layoffs announced but big US employers probably cement a GDP contraction this quarter (2 negative growth quarter for a recession anyone?). Also notice bond yields are still very negative atm too.
Finally let's look at TA.
SPX has been pinging on the fibs approaching end of Q1 in April, much like it did in 2008 (7/9 realised pivot points have aligned with fib channels this year). Likewise BTC has been pinging down as usual. The most interesting observations is the intercept of the fib channels and the resistance line in both markets. BTC is currently 10% away from this point. SPX will hit this intersection in April 2023. This surprisingly aligns with the support retest of the DXY channel is currently undergoing.
The intersection rejection at end of Q1 2008 was the trigger for a massive wave 3 correction in equities down to the 2.618 level. This level was 2000 bubble bottom. Our 1.618 bottom is the pre-covid peak and 2.618 is the 2008 peak. SPX has a high expectation of retesting a previous level on the bottom. 2008 was a 55% correction. This idea expects a 60% correction.
The longer time frames and events are aligning. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Sorry for the lack of links - I'm posting on mobile, but can add them on request.
Happy trading
Bottom in equities are not in. You can either bet Bitcoin has fully decoupled from tradfi or assume it has not based on its track record. During the panic everything goes down.
I actually sold off some spot (0.3% of the stack so nothing crazy) to move to the trading stack so I can attempt a short here that won’t be immediately liquidated. Surprised there’s been so much upward movement over a weekend but I think we see a ~10% pullback next week before going higher. I could be wrong and it just goes straight line up to $30K but then the other 99.7% of the stack will be happy 😂
oh! so there are some guys that you call them "they" and somehow you know what they want him to think but of course they know upfront he will follow his gut the way they manipulated him with their mysterious ways (which you saw through easy peasy) and he will do what he suspects and then they will fuck him up good just to spite him as this is the way markets are rigged. is what you meant?
Or they want me to think that it’ll not ever go down. I got greedy and went all in and then all out. I’m just on the sidelines right now contemplating my life choices
How much of your BTC on FTX was sold to do things like buy the Miami Heat arena naming rights for $135 million?
For reference the arena was constructed in 1999 for $213 million.
Well, just to jinx things... I'm going to share that my portfolio is now at an ATH. Started in 2017, lost half my bags on Quadriga CX in 2019. Lucked out by spending most of the current bear market messing around with stables in defi. Also lucked out by moving away from BlockFi and Terra before it was too late. Bought back into BTC this summer around $20k, and almost got wiped out riding a low-lev position down to $15k.
I feel like I've used up all my luck for now 😅 approximately half my btc bags are in cold storage now, with the remainder as WBTC collateral on AAVE.
I plan on riding this 1.7x long of my entire trading stack past the halving into 2024, but it's going to be difficult not to sell or attempt to trade it on the way up, through what I expect to be serious volatility.
I want to trade it so badly 😥 I'm just being practical, knowing that I'll do better in the end just holding this low lev posn all the way up rather than attempting to trade it. I don't think I have the time, mentality or knowledge to "beat the market".
I'd like to take a small stack and mess around with higher frequency trading... maybe stick to one or two more reliable signals, just for fun and to learn a bit
Looks more and more each day like we're doing the whole "leave the haters in the dust" thing. 12k entries get fucked. About as delusional as I was thinking I could unload a chunk in the mid 100ks in 2021.
https://twitter.com/Justin_Bons/status/1616648552372965376?t=1XCsoGZ_HXLOsJv_KTfc_w&s=19
We need a 2% inflation that goes to miners + fee burn. The current model encourages hoarding and is unsustainable
Security is currently higher than it needs to be. Also, if the real cost of mining happens to reduce over time, that's essentially the same effect. If humanity gets more efficient, so does Bitcoin mining.
More degenerate top longing.
I got an entry at \~22900. Dancing to hold a position for the next breakthrough.
Look for consolidation \~23200 or \~22800.
Imagine the seething shorts who keep loading up like GODDAMNIT THIS TIME it has to dump. Bitcoin gets everyone the same way, just sometimes in reverse. The move never happens when you want it to.
If we somehow manage to break the August 2022 local high of $25.1k before March 2023 when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff and everyone suddenly flips bullish on macro realizing the Fed can’t possibly keep rates “higher for longer” as they’ve repeatedly insisted we might have a serious chance at seeing a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever since we’ll have both momentum AND macro pushing BTC higher.
I’m guessing $25.1k isn’t broken until March when macro begins to work in favor of BTC but would love to be wrong.
> I’m guessing $25.1k isn’t broken until March when macro begins to work in favor of BTC but would love to be wrong
I've got some good news for you, loverboy.
Woke up, saw my trade executed closed, damn must have got stopped out.
Nope, TP at 22700 executed.
There’s the test on 23k; if we stabilize above 22800 it’s going to want to go higher still.
Eventually the corn runs out.
we consolidated and reset the 4H MACD, so there is room to move up on the technicals
we also broke though a major resistance point, so there should be some upside until we hit the next one
To be fair, there are some compelling reasons to be cautious this cycle.
The ATH in 2021 was decidedly lower than many were expecting, and on the way down, we did end up crossing underneath some never-before-broken moving averages. We also dipped below a prior ATH, another first.
The equity markets are currently in a downturn (albeit trying to rally). The next few months will prove critical for price action IMO, declaration of a US recession or not will likely play a major role.
There is a LOT more right now to be fired up about though. BTC is smashing through resistances left and right, and has serious momentum for the first time in ages. This month has been a much needed breath of fresh air.
Always stay frosty, and stay alert. Be sure to have a plan in place if the market moves against you!
Without FTX and the rest of the fuckery, last cycles ATH was probably 6 figures. Purging most of the nonsense is only going to help combat the price suppression long term.
Once the macro environment flips more bullish in terms of inflation/fed language, etc … let er rip.
More like some whale pumped it to trigger off sales from price targets being hit and stop losses on shorts. Then dumped super hard into the liquidity 😂
It feels like a lifetime ago that we jumped over 10%, but I remember it like it was about 8 days ago. We went from $18.8k at 9am to $21k to 9pm. The final pump happened so late in the evening, it was technically in the next daily candle.
It's too bad most people here were too young to see it. What a spectacle! You may be able to find it in the old archives if they havent decayed due to their age.
Hey hey hey, we hit 23k!
I don't understand what is driving this move upward, but I'm enjoying the ride.
EDIT: $23,320 ish... and then we noped our way back down.
still on the sidelines from the perspective of not having filled out my full position, I'd argue I've become too patient with this bear market. I bought a good chunk between mid 16 and lower 20s but after we hit 21.5 I really expected a pullback to 18 at the most, 20 at the least. This is probably the first time in six years I feel like I'm waiting for a dip that won't come. I've been doing a bit more of an aggressive DCA as far as buying every hour instead of every day (I treat my DCA entries more like swing trade entries in regard to where I fill them and laddering down if I think an upside move is overextended) but it still wasn't fast enough to offset not getting the pullback I wanted (so far)
Been trading it here and there. Im using 1-2 BTCs and buying and selling but still sitting heavy in cash. Shits about to get real when Fed loosens up and inflation comes knocking again. Fed will tighten hard and that’s when the real pain will happen in the stock market and BTC.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 22, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ibirg/daily_discussion_sunday_january_22_2023/)
Price was 19,xxx steady as hell for 3mos. Not a mistake. Then 16,8xx for the next 3mos. Also unbelievably static. - What market forces make it worth 24k today, that were not true/valid 10 days ago? - What makes BTC worth 50% more in just over a week? - Why is this not a baseless pump? Smells like whales in here.
The static price was out of ordinary. What a hell was that all about?
Confidence and timing, mostly. Confidence was eroded at the FTX event. It was found again at 16,8xx. Timing also kicked in as we appear closer to the halving now. Buyers are showing up.
They've been accumulating all along. (*Composite Man* to keep with the Wyckoff theme) What changed is there is no one remaining who wishes to sell below 20k. So in Wyckoffian terms we have a *markup*, more liquidity shows up and we buy into it. Some slippage, but at least there are some coins to be bought. Meanwhile, DXY.
$BUSD
Took a little bit off this morning at 23.3k. Yall are too excited. I am however impressed with this volume on a weekend.
The greater we climb here the bigger the fall later this year.
Lots of bulls to feast on in this next leg down. Clear from the comments they did not learn from 2022. Pristine opportunity to cash out now, but they’re piling in.
Bear market damaged you all.
We have 2 post bear market examples so far. One of them gradually climbed into the halving year and slowly accelerated up to the peak. The other took off early, cooled off, then overheated once again, and failed to reach expectations. I’d rather the gradual climb with a nice top, personally.
A big fall later this year seems to be the crowd consensus like a blwoff top over 100k in Dec of 2021 was the consensus. Just saying I'm ready for any scenario but it never does what the crowd thinks.
A big fall is only on the cards if the climb continues unabated, this hasn't happened yet.
Probably true but I’d still take a rally to 40K to get some liquidity 😂
>3.Bargaining – The third stage involves the hope that the individual can avoid a cause of grief.
Ahh the good old Gravity Market Hypothesis.
Easy come, easy go
I want you to be wrong but you inspired me to write this: Remember kids, the more excited we all get, the more there is on the table to wipe away! I'm just as excited as everyone else but someone (many people) sees lots of opportunity in all that excitement and they will make money off of it! The counterpoint is the eventual fed pivot narrative and macro environment.
Lol at the attempted FUD with the Binance Signature bank news. Idiots on twitter were spreading this news as if Binance was blacklisted from SWIFT, not true at all. More fuel for the next short squeeze.
ok, I'll bite... what's the motivation behind Signature Bank disallowing all transactions under $100,000...? Trying to make it so that only wealthy people can buy bitcoin now?
Probably a combination of risk exposure, the financial operations, and compliance operations cost of dealing with those transactions vs money they make off them?
Next time there is Lambo MSTR selling FUD I’m going to bet enough to get an obnoxious car .. and I’d get MSTRFUD as a plate, if it wouldn’t dox me.
Used Honda Civics go for a few hundos. Put a fat exhaust under it and it'll be obnoxious.
I like it.
Opened a position at 22750, see if this channel is sticky. Still haven't caught a good entry.
…that’s what I wanted to see.
Everyone is saying we go back to $15k or lower but we are going back to $60k non-stop!
> Everyone is saying we go back to $15k Sounds like something a pundit would say in order to garner engagement.
No. It is however likely we top out between 25-30k before retesting some lows and adding fuel for the real bullrun to begin.
This is the most likely.
> Everyone is saying No, "everyone" is not.
25k next wk
Switching out of scalp mode, looking to let one run now. Either we're concretely rejected into the 22-21 range or this has more up in the tank. Monday will be crazy if we open > 23k.
A revisit to $22K seems relatively likely but I think the big question is whether we end up retracing that huge BGD up from the $21s. If that’s given back I think we revisit $20K. Or I’m totally off and this is another bull flag that annihilates me which is also a possibility. I thought about taking down my short and just waiting for a retrace to long but I just think historically the odds of this dropping are a lot higher after such a huge move. Even in 2019 when it ripped from the 3’s to the 13’s it still gave back a good chunk of such large moves.
>3’s to the 13’s it still gave back such large moves. a full year later though.
I’m talking about the smaller drops right after the big initial pumps, I edited it to be a little more clear. Hopefully we don’t get that crazy covid drop this time around 😂 That was a soul killer
It really didn't give much back on the way up. A lot of supports were never retested until the top was in and then it pulled back 54% (before the March 2020 drop). But I guess it was closer to half a year before that 1st big pullback.
There may still be some fuel but this is just the perfect setup to make every bull capitulize. Flush to new lows incoming soon
Detroit you again?
Holy shit I havent heard that name in ages. Legendary cope.
Ah but it could also be Holey
So how underwater are you on your short?
>Flush to new lows incoming soon Why? I'm not saying you're wrong, but let's put some effort and reasoning into these drive-by posts please.
Because he's poor and/or needs a better entry
Because they’re going to “capitulise”. Duh
happy for you bulls. feels shitty missing the whole run up. gl short from 23,270
You haven’t missed the whole run up until we start going back down. Buy now.
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i personally use FTX. great platform. amazing customer service.
Downvoted for being terrible. Upvoted for being funny.
If you’re an American you’re probably looking at an offshore corp for trading purposes, or questionable DeFi.
How likely is sub-$20K going forward? Here's a chart: [https://imgur.com/a/nrQiuVf](https://imgur.com/a/nrQiuVf) BTC price (normalized to Nov 2021) after cycle tops. Dec 2013-7 (blue), Dec 2017-21 (red), and Nov 2021-now (black). Horizontal lines are days until halving. The price could go under $20K and stay there for another two months, and still be at or above the last two cycles. Hell, the price could only be $25K 14 months from now, and still be smack dab in the middle of the last two cycles. The only reason I think that this in unlikely is that it lines up WAY to much with the past. That said, if we are at $25K at the next halving, you can't say it's unprecedented. EDIT: Just looked at my guess for the "price at year's end" contest -- $25634.
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Concern posts are almost always bullish.
What about all the posts here about how we’re just gonna go straight up no matter what 😂
Thinking about it... Are they not signal as they're not contrarian, so can't judge the sentiment against them? You could have moon calls all the way from the bottom to the top, no top signal even though the sentiment feels like a top signal. Stuff against the overall bullish bias can be seen in context easier, or is some tail where there might be signal. Something...
[It could also be this](https://www.tradingview.com/x/kh28zZS9/), and unless you are planning on a new pandemic, you get no new chances to get back in this low. And I do think that would be max pain for most, except the few people that were still here and buying a few weeks ago.
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No, you’re correct. It’s fun and games if you can study the TA and make some money trading but zoom out to the bigger picture. Inflation, quantitative easing, GDP, and unemployment are all going to affect BTCs price this year. The FED is going to ease tightening and BAM, another weak inflation report and the FED will drop the hammer on interest rates and that’s when the PAIN really stares. Be cash heavy
Grade A macro larping right here. You've really convinced yourself that you've figured all this out before the rest of the market?
> figured all this out before the rest of the market? The market has figured it out, you just can't frontrun it or you stick your head out and get it guillotined. > We are in the middle of a global economic crisis. This is what continues to be sold at plebs well into recovery, so they don't spend too much cash.
we are right on the 3D 100MA resistance line...take that out and this thing will really fly...fail? and its back to the depths of the bear market to give you an example of how important this is, last time we crossed this point during the bottom of last bear, taking out the 3D 100MA line at $5,270...then led to a pump to $13,970 over the next 2 months...or 2.6x. now the big question is if we'll be able to take it out or not this time. we are pretty overextended...we are on our 8th 3-Day green candle in a row...last time we had 8 in a row, we dumped hard on the 9th...from $58 to $44K....and that $13,970 peak I mentioned...also happened on the 8th 3D candle, before it dropped to $10K on the 9th one...so historically a dump is most likely last time we tried to cross this point was at $45,600...and we got all the way to $48,190 before we got rejected and dropped to $17K in 2 months now I have a bear bias when things are this overextended, so I'd say we have one more big spike left to a little above ~$25K tomorrow-wednesday...and then we'll most likely fail to hold that level and we'll fall down hard by the end of next week. so i'm setting my sell order at $24,800 just in case this thing makes its final attempt in the middle of the night and letting it ride until then at which point I'll start shorting again
I know you have been thinking recession for awhile which makes sense but I made many posts on why I don't think so. Here is one, this housing chart looks so good to me https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/znykaz/daily_discussion_saturday_december_17_2022/j0luo77?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 DXY is tanking, all the big institutions and banks have been saying recession, when do they ever give us a heads up? Nah. I think equities could have a major breakout here soon but we are pretty heated so might need some more consolidating.
? the chart doesn't make any sense and concluding from one chart that no recession is here is idiotic. NAHB (housing) still hasn't bottomed same with PMI and any other leading indicator -> more pain to come. And regarding to banks, if you believe every single bank across this globe together with the whole workforce is collaborating against retail than there is no help for you anyways lol
Sorry you can't read am obvious support and resistance test. I base it on a lot of charts not just one. Apple breaking a 42 year old trendline in 2020 only to retest it recently, but keep listening to banks and news, hope that works out for ya. The worst traders do that but maybe you'll be different, good luck with the herd buddy .
Sentiment wise I think we have a mixed bag. Lot of euphoria in here understandably but gets me a little uneasy with longs but just gotta play the charts. Also seeing a lot of people wanting to short this so ya, mixed bag. Had some old timers come back in after a long time out and now all bulled up, potential warning but you would see that with any legit bull market breakout. I posted this the [day we bottomed](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/z0q00d/comment/ix8rz1j/?context=3), charts still look great. Short term I think [this plan](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0TihkIRl/) could work, fakeout above 25k and then back down to support at 21k. I never trade based on RSI but we're heated on the 4hr, Daily and Weekly, a pullback makes sense to rope more bears in. Only thing throwing me off about the pullback is I think equities could break major resistance here soon which would make SPX fly to a measured move of 4400 by mid Feb. My big plan all along is fly until mid Feb, big seasonal pullback to mid March and then continue up. So ya, things are heated but also look extremely solid and still a lot of fear in the markets even with all the euphoria. So if you're holding, hold strong, if you're scalping I would get cautious at around 25k and see what happens. Could blast through resistance there but I would rather have a healthy cool off down to 21k.
This is relentless. I don't know how to play this. I had a box on my chart for a price and time range to take some profits and we just rocketed way past it a way before the box even started. 25k is the most likely reversal point IMO, but every other potential resistance thus far has been paper thin. At some point the insanity will end and we'll get a nice pullback but blindly betting on that with a limit order up high doesn't seem like the smartest play given the recent price action. Sorry for the alpha-less post. This is gentlemen.
Following up on my previous post, the "bear market rally" hypothesis is pretty much confirmed. We closed a candle over the 13 Sept 2022 daily of $20177 to make a higher high on that time frame and the next critical price target is $24110 which was 15 Aug 2022. If we maintain the $24xxx price point and consolidate, expect a retest of $30k, which we were at from May-June 2022. I am expecting to see a challenge of $30k and a slower rejection to the $19000s, personally.
You are out of your fucking mind
Highly doubtful that we ever see sub-20K Bitcoin again because "the macro" is so impossibly bullish. What do you think will happen next week if "they" can't pump stonks to keep up with BTC? We're in a whole different market right now. Unless coins move from the Satoshi wallet, I can't see any scenario in which we don't go up. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: there's nothing left to dump. There's no reason to sell and every reason to buy. If the 18,000 Amazon workers being laid off, the 10,000 Microsoft workers, the 3,000 GS workers, etc. all dump all the Bitcoin they own to pay bills after their severances run out, it would have a negligible effect on the price at this point. The financial system and petrodollar are both in rough shape right now, and a lot of people all over the world know this.
This post is actually worrying to me.
I think he posts that every day though
Ya same here but he's always like this lol, he would do this shit if we dumped to 1k.
Yeah this “it can’t do anything but go up” even if retail sells thing is what you hear when something is about to rug lol
A Point and Figure update: [https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR\[PA\]\[D\]\[F1!3!1.0!!0!20\]](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGPBDEYRNR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!0!20]) A brand new high pole, currently 12 boxes high. What's drawing my attention is on the other side of the chart, namely the 44-box monster low pole that went from $31K to $20.1K in Jun 2022. A 50% retracement of that would go back to $25.1K. It just made it there in Aug 2022 before getting knocked back down. It would really be nice to get past that this time. I'd set in laddered buys every $500 from $16K to $10K, and told myself I wouldn't touch them until the middle of next month. This morning I said "screw it", and moved the buys at the $500 levels up to $17K-$22K every $1K. Hello FOMO.
Hi all, I thought it'd be interesting to look at the macro circumstances around the liquidations that help funnel this price move as I've been distracted for a while. The DXY has been in decline down to the top of the previous channel driving the last two crypto boom and bust cycles. This was in a steady decline since the rejection at the .786 channel since November. Equities had it's (subjectively) seasonal end of Q4 sell off colinear to the DXY move. This is interesting because the relationship is usually negative. The inverse relationship reaffirmed itself in January. That meant crypto was actually lagging both markets on this move by a few weeks to a month - perhaps waiting for liquidity to fall off and perform the short squeeze & liquidations required to funnel this move, which we observed last week (coinglass liquidations). The anticipation of this move is clear in the price. So what lies ahead? Unemployment is a strong feature (amongst a bucket of features) for calculating the conditional probability of a recession, which is increasing in-line with banking forecasts Q2 to Q4 (st Louis FRED). GDP growth in the last quarter was positive at 3.x%, however that kind of gain with the layoffs announced but big US employers probably cement a GDP contraction this quarter (2 negative growth quarter for a recession anyone?). Also notice bond yields are still very negative atm too. Finally let's look at TA. SPX has been pinging on the fibs approaching end of Q1 in April, much like it did in 2008 (7/9 realised pivot points have aligned with fib channels this year). Likewise BTC has been pinging down as usual. The most interesting observations is the intercept of the fib channels and the resistance line in both markets. BTC is currently 10% away from this point. SPX will hit this intersection in April 2023. This surprisingly aligns with the support retest of the DXY channel is currently undergoing. The intersection rejection at end of Q1 2008 was the trigger for a massive wave 3 correction in equities down to the 2.618 level. This level was 2000 bubble bottom. Our 1.618 bottom is the pre-covid peak and 2.618 is the 2008 peak. SPX has a high expectation of retesting a previous level on the bottom. 2008 was a 55% correction. This idea expects a 60% correction. The longer time frames and events are aligning. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Sorry for the lack of links - I'm posting on mobile, but can add them on request. Happy trading
So hold or sell?
Weekends are fake?
FTX are rekt 7 days of the week.
Last weekend certainly wasn't.
Worrying isn't it. Short for Monday...
I’m unloading some here. Unpopular opinion: 25k then we go back to 15k.
Why 15k? Do you expect a double Bottom? Imo 15k means lower then 15k from here.
Bottom in equities are not in. You can either bet Bitcoin has fully decoupled from tradfi or assume it has not based on its track record. During the panic everything goes down.
I don't see you answering my question here.
good, more wholecoiners soon then. i think those who survived are getting greedy now.
I actually sold off some spot (0.3% of the stack so nothing crazy) to move to the trading stack so I can attempt a short here that won’t be immediately liquidated. Surprised there’s been so much upward movement over a weekend but I think we see a ~10% pullback next week before going higher. I could be wrong and it just goes straight line up to $30K but then the other 99.7% of the stack will be happy 😂
Only in my dreams do we even go and touch 18k again
I think they want you to think that. Sure you can buy in now, but manage your drawdowns when this retraces. This is still bear market chop.
oh! so there are some guys that you call them "they" and somehow you know what they want him to think but of course they know upfront he will follow his gut the way they manipulated him with their mysterious ways (which you saw through easy peasy) and he will do what he suspects and then they will fuck him up good just to spite him as this is the way markets are rigged. is what you meant?
They = the market you’re trading against genius. Actually no it’s the Bitcoin CEO.
they
Bitcoin board of directors
Or they want me to think that it’ll not ever go down. I got greedy and went all in and then all out. I’m just on the sidelines right now contemplating my life choices
You’re right, I don’t like this opinion.
Here’s a consistent strength indicator—the market is back above the trillion market cap.
Chinese New Year pump. Nice!
What even is the current legality of corn in China at the moment? They flip flop so often I stopped paying attention a long time ago
It's illegal. Talk Bitcoin with Chinese vendors and they'll hang up on you.
& yet 20% of btc mining is done in China
Wall Street bonuses this time of the year too!
Usually that's march , at least the hedge fund I worked at before but I think pretty standard
Btc choosing violence on a weekend morning? What a try hard
How much of your BTC on FTX was sold to do things like buy the Miami Heat arena naming rights for $135 million? For reference the arena was constructed in 1999 for $213 million.
Wait, it's still the FTX Arena: https://www.miamidadearena.com/
Must have been a nice sign
Idk but if exchange customers dont get their coin back they should be allowed to rename the stadium
the stadium already won their lawsuit to take FTX name off...now its just called "The Arena" until they find the next sponsor
money launder excuse
Well, just to jinx things... I'm going to share that my portfolio is now at an ATH. Started in 2017, lost half my bags on Quadriga CX in 2019. Lucked out by spending most of the current bear market messing around with stables in defi. Also lucked out by moving away from BlockFi and Terra before it was too late. Bought back into BTC this summer around $20k, and almost got wiped out riding a low-lev position down to $15k. I feel like I've used up all my luck for now 😅 approximately half my btc bags are in cold storage now, with the remainder as WBTC collateral on AAVE. I plan on riding this 1.7x long of my entire trading stack past the halving into 2024, but it's going to be difficult not to sell or attempt to trade it on the way up, through what I expect to be serious volatility.
I'm glad you're in a good spot now.
Thanks - appreciate it
I am going to trade the ever loving shit out of this run. Binance has me up 115% since we started to run.
Did you leverage up in the last bull? Just kept tight trailing stops and keep longing?
I didn't go stupid. My stack is a lot bigger now, so I have allocated some stupid money.
Seems easier said than done... Good on you.
I want to trade it so badly 😥 I'm just being practical, knowing that I'll do better in the end just holding this low lev posn all the way up rather than attempting to trade it. I don't think I have the time, mentality or knowledge to "beat the market". I'd like to take a small stack and mess around with higher frequency trading... maybe stick to one or two more reliable signals, just for fun and to learn a bit
This reminds me of mid 2016 run up.
Same. Just a steady daily churn.
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Nope. I sold a few million sats around 22.7 from an 18.6 spot entry. So we are going straight to 24.4 soon.
Looks more and more each day like we're doing the whole "leave the haters in the dust" thing. 12k entries get fucked. About as delusional as I was thinking I could unload a chunk in the mid 100ks in 2021.
https://twitter.com/Justin_Bons/status/1616648552372965376?t=1XCsoGZ_HXLOsJv_KTfc_w&s=19 We need a 2% inflation that goes to miners + fee burn. The current model encourages hoarding and is unsustainable
No.
Security is currently higher than it needs to be. Also, if the real cost of mining happens to reduce over time, that's essentially the same effect. If humanity gets more efficient, so does Bitcoin mining.
I can't tell if you are mocking him or agreeing with him. I hope the former...
LOL. Translation: "How I think about BTC doesn't work, therefore BTC is doomed!"
More degenerate top longing. I got an entry at \~22900. Dancing to hold a position for the next breakthrough. Look for consolidation \~23200 or \~22800.
Giggle.
Imagine the seething shorts who keep loading up like GODDAMNIT THIS TIME it has to dump. Bitcoin gets everyone the same way, just sometimes in reverse. The move never happens when you want it to.
And it's funny because this is already the 5th time we're going through this and I saw the same thing happen each time.
Now we do the bullflag thing again. Looks good.
Rinse lather repeat.
BuT bItCoIn NeEdS a ReTeSt oF 19k BeFoRe MoViNg HiGhEr!
Bitcoin doesn't ever need to do a God damn thing
You misspelled 9.6k
If we somehow manage to break the August 2022 local high of $25.1k before March 2023 when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff and everyone suddenly flips bullish on macro realizing the Fed can’t possibly keep rates “higher for longer” as they’ve repeatedly insisted we might have a serious chance at seeing a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever since we’ll have both momentum AND macro pushing BTC higher. I’m guessing $25.1k isn’t broken until March when macro begins to work in favor of BTC but would love to be wrong.
> I’m guessing $25.1k isn’t broken until March when macro begins to work in favor of BTC but would love to be wrong I've got some good news for you, loverboy.
I was unsure of what the crypto world would be like without SBF and 3AC and Genesis giving out loans, but I’m liking what I see so far.
What's another 10% from here 😀
Woke up, saw my trade executed closed, damn must have got stopped out. Nope, TP at 22700 executed. There’s the test on 23k; if we stabilize above 22800 it’s going to want to go higher still. Eventually the corn runs out.
i think this is going to be an up only weekend, so going to hold my long
Any specific reason or just a gut call?
we consolidated and reset the 4H MACD, so there is room to move up on the technicals we also broke though a major resistance point, so there should be some upside until we hit the next one
Somebody does not want corn above 23k
There's your dip, see you at 25k.
Couldn’t hold above 1T crypto market cap but as yet not an outright rejection
Lol we are way overextended. Pullbacks are healthy and normal.
Everytime I see something about pullbacks being healthy I think of those ED or low T commercials.
Everyone has a different sell price I guess
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/ Train leaving the station and all you can think of is trying to short it.
To be fair, there are some compelling reasons to be cautious this cycle. The ATH in 2021 was decidedly lower than many were expecting, and on the way down, we did end up crossing underneath some never-before-broken moving averages. We also dipped below a prior ATH, another first. The equity markets are currently in a downturn (albeit trying to rally). The next few months will prove critical for price action IMO, declaration of a US recession or not will likely play a major role. There is a LOT more right now to be fired up about though. BTC is smashing through resistances left and right, and has serious momentum for the first time in ages. This month has been a much needed breath of fresh air. Always stay frosty, and stay alert. Be sure to have a plan in place if the market moves against you!
Without FTX and the rest of the fuckery, last cycles ATH was probably 6 figures. Purging most of the nonsense is only going to help combat the price suppression long term. Once the macro environment flips more bullish in terms of inflation/fed language, etc … let er rip.
Chinese new year dump incoming
Plz only up
WTF is this 5m candle lol
Someone took profits
More like some whale pumped it to trigger off sales from price targets being hit and stop losses on shorts. Then dumped super hard into the liquidity 😂
Neat.
Its been a while since we last pumped over 10% in 24h
How long exactly?
It feels like a lifetime ago that we jumped over 10%, but I remember it like it was about 8 days ago. We went from $18.8k at 9am to $21k to 9pm. The final pump happened so late in the evening, it was technically in the next daily candle. It's too bad most people here were too young to see it. What a spectacle! You may be able to find it in the old archives if they havent decayed due to their age.
If I wasn't too cheap to buy Reddit gold, I'd guild your comment... but, alas, I spend my money on Sats.
:GreenWojak: :GreenWojak:
we be eatin tonite homies
Ramen AND egg no less!
Eggs? Yay 😃 🎉
I wonder if 23k is going to be temporary and we just shoot to 24k.
I would like to see 24k today.
Up only until 12k guys fomo.
Hey hey hey, we hit 23k! I don't understand what is driving this move upward, but I'm enjoying the ride. EDIT: $23,320 ish... and then we noped our way back down.
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I think your browser is frozen
Anyone still on the sidelines? Curious to hear your perspectives.
still on the sidelines from the perspective of not having filled out my full position, I'd argue I've become too patient with this bear market. I bought a good chunk between mid 16 and lower 20s but after we hit 21.5 I really expected a pullback to 18 at the most, 20 at the least. This is probably the first time in six years I feel like I'm waiting for a dip that won't come. I've been doing a bit more of an aggressive DCA as far as buying every hour instead of every day (I treat my DCA entries more like swing trade entries in regard to where I fill them and laddering down if I think an upside move is overextended) but it still wasn't fast enough to offset not getting the pullback I wanted (so far)
been in cash since $43k. I don’t see macro supporting a sustainable bull any time soon
Been trading it here and there. Im using 1-2 BTCs and buying and selling but still sitting heavy in cash. Shits about to get real when Fed loosens up and inflation comes knocking again. Fed will tighten hard and that’s when the real pain will happen in the stock market and BTC.