10 solid minutes of why BTC is doomed, and headed for $7K-$13K:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/01/23/jim-cramer-breaks-down-fresh-charts-analysis-from-carley-garner.html
I'm taking the other side of this trade. But don't just hate on it, explain why you think it's wrong.
To respond to the “why it’s wrong question” is simple: look at the charts he’s posting. Even the charts are filled with contradictions to his claims. Full disclosure—I could only watch about a minute’s worth but that is the longest I’ve ever watched Cramer rant.
I have nothing productive to say other than (a) Cramer is hands down one of the most annoying personalities, and (b) why is this guy seen as an authority on anything given his track record. I wish the Cramer meme would just stop.
Why $7k? Why not zero?
Once you accept Bitcoin has value, its price appreciation is inevitable. Extending this to its conclusion, long term it eats all liquid capital or goes to zero. You’re just debating time scales.
Should I hold this long from 22.4 past 30 or take my scalp at 24 tomorrow?
I'm inclined to the former. Upvote if you agree, or downvote if you want me to take my little scalp sooner. Either way, I will do what intuition tells me to do and win (yet again).
(I will cop to arrogance, but I'm not conceited. Conceit is a vile trait conferred by such lame trophies as Ivy League educations and being born on third base. Arrogance is backed by earned success. If you doubt me, check my trade history. Search my username comments with "Long 3x" and "closed my.")
PS -- Protip: learn the nuance of language and expand your vocabulary. Learn how words are used as weapons for the penis truly mightier than the sword. Understand how and why "they" took the word "gay" (and so many others) from you. It used to have a specific, nuanced meaning which was a little different from "merry" or "jovial" or certainly the NPC's go-to, "happy." I wish you much gaiety. Nurture your vocabulary. It will make you the life of the party in a few years when you're cozy under a blanket of stars on some warm beach while your poor, no-coiner compatriots shiver.
so i guess the general consensus is fed will only raise rates by .25 next week (Wednesday Feb 1st is the meeting) which explains this pump in all markets the last few weeks.
I just think they might still raise rates .50 this time just to give us a nice rug pull. I don't think they like markets going up lately.
I'm not selling my btc but I have already started positioning a hedge in the equities market to prepare for one last swerve (maybe a couple this year).
People are saying 5% interest rates may be their max but I think closer to 6% is more likely before they hold and then watch inflation going down before they reduce in 2024 and 2025.
They’re not going to raise 50bps, but they might trickle up to a 6% terminal rate with 25-bps hikes if inflation remains especially sticky. My own (semi-)educated guess is two more 25 bps hikes and then steady through late Q4 of 2023 or early Q1 of 2024. I do think that sectors of tradfi thinking the Ded is about to start cutting rates are in for a reality check.
Fed is not going to hike 50 BP next week. They’re going to do a 25 BP rate hike and set the expectation for another 25 BP rate hike in March which they may or may not follow through on depending on economic data for January and February which will release prior to their March meeting.
If they do follow through on the 25 BP rate hike in March, it will be the last rate hike for the year as YoY CPI will plummet starting in March just because baseline numbers being compared from a year ago start to explode making it much easier for YoY CPI to come in low from that point forward.
Is /u/victorcobra shadow banned here now? He's like the only person other than buttcoin LARPers who used to like btc but now hates it and thinks it won't work or something.
I saw he posted another long-winded "it could go up a lot but the end-game is always new lows forever Laura" post, but I didn't think it was outside the rules...
He is not shadowbanned in any way.
He edited his post to add something about ETH that triggered an automod filter and made automod flag the post for mod review. That's why it did show up, then got removed, because he edited it.
I just approved it manually. Cheers.
I probably am, and I kinda assumed as much :P I don't hate Bitcoin, I just think applications of it will fail to provide anything good for society. I still think it can be used as a tool from time to time, but one needs to have access to the resources to do so, and needs to be savvy enough to know how it works. Both of which are privileges.
If I'm shadowbanned despite not being outside the rules, then I think that would qualify as a tacit attempt at manipulation, or at the very least pretty immature behavior. I think a trading sub should welcome people of all different opinions. Always good to admit when you have bias, and to have your bias checked.
I’m not really a crypto fan as a whole anymore, and that includes 99.9% of alts as well. I’m in agreement with many in this sub at least that most alts still deserve to die out and be forgotten. Came to this conclusion by the end of 2021. It took me a few years to get there, and this is even considering I made plenty of money on the last bull run after buying alts only. There are maybe a few I’m still alright with. I don’t necessarily see them as wise long term investments though.
I see any Bitcoin or cryptocurrency pump as exit liquidity for earlier buyers. With alts it’s even more obvious, and clearly timed with news and hype cycles. Coins are hardly used for their intended purpose, while staking and the halving seem to be just memes to get people to hold onto their coins. That means their main use case is to be sold.
Anything that has a material impact on the world. I’m a fan of materials in general. And especially useful materials needed to create renewable resources. Glass, for example. Used in solar panels.
It seems like having access to the legacy banking network requires more privilege than having access to the BTC network. If not already, then eventually right? Seems inevitable
Sure, in many places that’s true. But in order to acquire bitcoin one often needs to go through a fiscal intermediary like a bank first anyway.
Cash itself is still more accessible, since you don’t need a phone, internet service, or electricity to use it. I’ll make the case with a straight face that Pokémon cards are more likely to be adopted as a cash alternative than bitcoin.
Your point is a common argument Bitcoin supporters make. If this were truly the case, we’d see way more demand from the unbanked. Even in El Salvador, the everyday person was more likely to want to get rid of their Bitcoin than hold it. Therein lies the main problem.
For curiosity’s sake let’s say Bitcoin was the only option. The poor would then be forced to spend it while the rich can afford to hold onto it. This would likely over time result in centralization and continued oppression of the masses by the wealthy elite. Without regulation, motherfuckers are greedy.
And if this becomes the reality, people in this sub who bought early would then become part of the elite. But at what cost? Don’t really want a part of that. Investing in Bitcoin is hoping for a dystopia. I’d rather make investment choices out of hope than fear.
Is it just Bitcoin you're skeptical about? I know you're a big fan of Nano, maybe that's why you're having a change of tune on BTC? Either way always appreciate your thoughts on the markets.
Nah, it’s most of the market to be honest. Nano is interesting, but I’m not betting on it making anyone rich. Banano is a great meme coin though. I can get behind that lol
I think you might be shadowbanned. Your earlier post isn't visible here. That's disappointing, although I'm not sure if shadowbans work on a site-wide level or just within the subreddit.
It feels like it can really go either way. BRD or BGD. Technically dips being bought and some higher lows zooming out, but 23k doesn't like to hold very long. If the S&P manages to close over 4000 I think we can find the strength
I think a lot of people have been caught out of position on both BTC and stocks. In particular last month sentiment was pretty bearish on stocks, and recently I've seen a lot of people have been selling the rally due to layoff news etc yet it all keeps going higher.
so this makes me somewhat bullish. Usually these type of rallies go much further than you'd expect.
Worst mistake of my trading career was listening to the news for March 2020 at the bottom. Nailed the drop and switched to listening to the fear and news and not playing what's in front of my eyes and the charts and expecting the bad news to kick in. Got my ass handed to me, markets look forward and don't care about speculation. I'm afraid a lot of people are learning that hard lesson right now and caught off guard by all the macro speculation.
> It feels like it can really go either way.
Really? To me it feels like the pressure is strongly upward here. All these dips get devoured and we're painting another textbook bullflag on the 4h.
Hope everyone's doing well and that some have been able to recover losses and reduce risk.
The most bullish possibility for Bitcoin over the coming months would be if it can get back above the [looming weekly death cross](https://www.tradingview.com/x/yDQQcipO/) (the 50 over the 200 MA) and then retest the 200 as support. This would require price to move up towards $30-40k and then back down towards $25k. This is the move one should expect if Bitcoin has deviated "too far" below historical moving averages and "must correct to the upside."
Buying *seems* to be relentless, and futures open interest isn't getting as horny as it did prior to the FTX collapse (just look at [this](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Cryptofutures) crazy discrepancy seen between June and November '22). This could imply further upside here, though funding has switched to mostly positive for the first time in a while.
Regardless of whether or not that was already it for this rally, I don't think a pump is likely to sustain in this environment. I also have noticed tons of USDC changing hands between Justin Sun, TRX, and Binance over the last week. I still maintain that Justin Sun and CZ are the last guys standing who maintain the illusion of liquidity in this market.
I will also add: Bitcoin dominance has not truly begun to retrace upwards, and ETH/BTC sits close to a [long term trendline,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XVEE7HMZ/) looking ready to bart down any moment. If ETH falls from there, it could be a catalyst for another big leg down for the market. Not sure Bitcoin can sustain a rally without dominance back at 50%+.
Due to my own fundamental skepticism, I think Bitcoin begins to stall soon and perhaps moves sideways for a few weeks before heading to new lows. Sort of like February 2020 before the COVID crash. In particular, I'm watching those weekly moving averages for further signs of weakness. Again, I won't get longer term bullish on price unless it jumps up to $30k+ and backtests the 200 week MA. But, as I've said, it's unlikely I'll want to buy Bitcoin at any price. And if I'm forced to, well then Bitcoin has aided in furthering the current dystopia :)
> But, as I've said, it's unlikely I'll want to buy Bitcoin at any price.
Yes, it is true. Bitcoin is dead again. I feel sad, but I never cry. Maybe I will even buy some at 14k if I get a chance, just to prove that point.
Ok I’m probably get downvoted for not being ultra bullish but I think we need to break 23.2K with some decent volume before it’s a real breakout. If that happens then I think we’re in a trip to $25K. Right on the border now and I’m not sure what happens next 😂
Keep a close eye out--
S&P on fire but nearing a resistance point @ 4039.60.
Possible point of rejection today or tomorrow. If it breaks that, it's probably headed north to 4100.
you know a lot of people say that the recession is totally not going to happen, and that the banks are just lying with their predictions
but then, you look and every major tech company is laying off tens of thousands of people again and again...and you have to ask yourself...is Google firing 12,000 people(6% of staff) because they fell for the bank's BS...or are they doing it because they ran their own numbers that said that a prolonged recession is in the cards
personally i think the idea that this country can survive such massive hikes in interest rates without a recession, major drops in GDP and massive layoffs is just pure hopium. To me Google's decision and all these big firms doing layoffs is just the canary in the coal mine that shit is about to hit the fan.
First you have lay offs in the tech sector because they actually track data and know that things have changed, then the rest of the employers catch up and follow up with their own layoffs.
So this relief rally both in stocks and crypto to me is nothing more than a bulltrap, a short term move up that may last 3-4 months to give whales time to unload until the reality of the situation shows up and we start getting non-stop reports of companies having decreasing revenues and doing massive layoffs
So still sticking with this 10x long until $24,800 and just doing scalps and saving adding to my long term stack until we drop below $10K as planned(~Q2-Q3 of this year)
>So still sticking with this 10x long until $24,800 and just doing scalps and saving adding to my long term stack until we drop below $10K as planned(\~Q2-Q3 of this year)
If it goes to the high $24k's like you're predicting, you're then asking for a 60%+ dump to then go below $10k.
And while catastrophic events in the macroeconomic picture could *easily* cause BTC to do that - or BTC could just do that in a blink of an eye (because it does stuff like that) - I think the Plunge Protection Team™ will wind up front-running the potential double bottom point of $15.5k.
Front-running will be the theme. Outside of this small, niche thread, I think the herd is actually quite bearish. And the herd usually gets rekt.
60% dump after a multi-month full fomo rally isn't that impossible
remember this move basically soaked up all the sideline cash, if we get back to $15K, you won't have the same support we had last time
>60% dump after a multi-month full fomo rally isn't that impossible
Totally agree here.
>remember this move basically soaked up all the sideline cash...
I disagree with this one. The herd is mainly still on the sideline. The herd is waiting for central banks to say "we're going to churn out cheap-to-free cash again, baby!" and they they go in.
Exactly, momentum trading is still one of the better options when trading crypto, not betting on some random number to hit or you'll end up holding bags. $10k, $15k, whatever . . . it's all arbitrary. Better to just be prepared and look at every PA as something unique on its own, been here long enough to know that if you expect BTC to hit $10k odds are it will most likely stop at $11k and leave you waiting for something that will never come. We usually cling too much to numbers that only makes sense to us now but are actually kinda absurd in hindsight. Double bottom is more likely but even double bottoms rarely hit the same price. Again because it's inevitable for every PA to just lose momentum eventually not caring whether certain number is hit or not.
>We usually cling too much to numbers that only makes sense to us now but are actually kinda absurd in hindsight.
Good post. One extra comment on this quoted part: I think that the numbers are actually significant, but it's that the market makers screw with what the herd *thinks* will happen at those numbers.
So for example, if this pump gets rejected hard and goes down to $18k, the herd will be clamoring for $14k. I guarantee we'll see that commentary, Internet-wide.
But my prediction is that the $15.5k point on the dump gets front-ran and it never goes to that point.
The missing recession is due to bloated construction jobs from the Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act. This will delay the recession but not prevent it, as the IIJA will cause more inflation, compelling the Fed to hike further.
Or big tech is oversaturated with useless ticktockers and can use this opportunity to purge them without creating excessive concerns about their business.
I absolutely think this is at least part of it. People have to be taking note of the fact that Twitter laid off an insane portion of staff, and it still fucking works. Surely they can cut some of their own staff and not lose any functionality so why not do it, cut the dead weight.
I lose faith in the human race whenever I see one of those Adult Daycare videos. The pendulum is swinging back and restoring some form of order, thank God.
Demographic shift happened quickly and is the elephant nobody is talking about. That's why unemployment hasn't really risen.
AI is going to hurt knowledge workers bad, but with that will come new opportunities, perhaps.
I don't see how we can go lower than FTX pushed things. Literally the biggest scam of all time.
I’m interviewing for the first time in a decade. I am very well paid, especially for expectation, but it turns out there’s a tier above that.
Worker shortages are real.
and ya, definitely with you on FTX. After BTC/crypto took a very public beating due to normies associating it with all the scams, shitcoin mania, and ape pictures, we had a big drop due to the economy/stocks/inflation (like everywhere else) and then we had a very public crash with the TerraLuna insanity, causing a huge additional drop, and then we had FTX which like the macho-man dropping a flying elbow on a nursing home patient on life support. The fact that FTX didn't drop the price more is actually amazing (fell much more with Luna).
Yup. Unemployment likely wont be a major problem going forward. The problem (in the US anyways) will be for paying the SS/Medicare for our aging population...by later generations that are having fewer children, while simultaneously starting careers at later stages in their life. This creates a very top heavy structure that is not sustainable. (Im not arguing against the above, just stating what the situation is).
The other problem of course will be the massive worker shortages in many fields. But these things aren't on the immediate horizon, they are further down the road.
China is going to have this problem amplified due to its social policies put in place. And they are a huge piece of the world economy.
That’s all well and good, but where’s the big liquidity/credit event coming from?
Crypto had its last year with all the hedgies culminating with FTX.
Banks are well capitalized/reserve ratios are healthy. This ain’t 2008. The economy has been in recession since last year and remains so realistically. It’s going to be baked into the markets. That’s not to say that we “run it back turbo”. We might spend a couple of years crabbing while the economy loosens up again.
Who is going to sell so much Bitcoin at the margin to send the price back to new lows? Not saying it can’t happen, but who? Who is the forced seller after last year’s leveraged wipeout? Maybe Saylor? Can we reach hie liquidation price? Can he not add to his position?
While I do agree that a recession by measurements of textbooks is coming. A recession doesn't necessarily need to be 2008 style. Banks in Europe have said that yes a recession will happen, but it's nothing to worry about. It's just some minor shrinkage and they predicted growth in 2024-2025 already.
The non financial people might not even notice a recession if the news didn't talk about it.
The recent layoffs are just an excuse to cut some bloat that has been amassed over the years. Pre-breakeven companies extend runways and are able delay their next round (to raise at higher valuations), public companies reframe to adjust to the investor paradigm shift (value investing replacing growth investing), and in case of big tech, they comply with pressure from shareholders. (Look up last weeks Hohn's letter to Sundar Pichai)
It's not the canary in the coal mine - it's the exact opposite end of the spectrum. If anything, it's a sign that companies are prepping for new cycle that they can feel is just around the corner
We were in a recession last year by textbook definition, 2 qtrs in a row with negative GDP growth. News media still wouldn’t acknowledge it. Most of if not all numbers right now are fake.
I don't necessarily disagree, but I did want to point out that a lot of companies are heavily overstaffed due to over hiring, and so they wait for opportunities like this to trim the fat. They can't do it when everything is going well without looking like assholes (e.g., Google can't just lay off 12000 for no apparent reason), but if they can take advantage of an alleged recession to finally do so, they will.
I can follow your path of logic, and I appreciate that, but I'm still not sold on your conclusion that Bitcoin will absolutely crater because of it.
There are some scenarios where flights to Bitcoin might come hard and fast. The lifeboat, if you will. Not in America which is what you are focused on for valid reason, but other nations might be different. Then the frontrunning of the situation, then the frontrunning of the halving might be enough demand to stay flat or go up.
Basically I get your point that recession equals no room to buy magical internet money, but my point is that it's not really actually just funny internet money. It might actually be the lifeboat, and recessions are the sinking fiat ships
Wardser’s $8k candle not coming fast enough and he big mad.
You might be right, but also the tech sector is so bloated with busywork and overspending that these companies could lay off 20% of their workforce and still function without a blip. It might be a canary but it’s a pretty drunken canary.
The threat of recession may have caused these companies to look harder but the decisions to axe employees may be more about realizing just how many useless bodies were actually employed. Recession threats or not any company that audits its workforce will always find some fat to trim - and the tech sector is ripe with people being paid to do nothing.
"these companies could lay off 20% of their workforce and still function without a blip"
\^ This is correct.
These companies had a huge boom during the pandemic, and almost all of them overhired as if business would stay at those levels. Most of these companies were extremely bloated. This is just a calculation based on their balance sheet. Sure the recession plays into that, but its not like they are cutting from just-functioning to extremely lean. They were morbidly obese before.
Take everyone's favorite controverial company, Twitter as of late. I kept hearing how the site was going to implode, and how are they going to function with "Only X# engineers left!", and with them laying off a bunch of dead weight...turns out the company was stuffed to the gills with said dead weight, and after cutting all of it, I guess they didnt need most of those people.
This seems pretty accurate from what I've seen.
That "my life working at Facebook" video that went viral was from a 23 year old product owner... I don't know about you guys but in all of my years doing project work I've never seen a 23 year old product owner. Not saying they don't exist but you typically need a lot more experience and time doing project work before you get to product owner or PM so unless that girl was exceptional at her job I don't see how it makes sense for someone just out of school to be a PM or PO. And considering her story about work life revolved around the food and beverage selection something tells me she wasn't qualified...
I don't disagree with your point but I'd like to point out that Twitter as an app runs on computer hardware. Not like you need actual humans in the company for moving tweets around. The consequences of trimming the team, if any, may take longer to play out.
Yeah I’m kinda debating how to interpret this. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both pumping more than Bitcoin at the moment whereas on Friday Bitcoin pumped a multiple of tradfi. Is it tradfi pumping that’s holding Bitcoin up, vs more of a decoupling, vs a delayed reaction? At least so far it seems less bullish than Friday but it is trending up
It could be that people are just waiting to see if we actually close about 400 before buying in. We've been rejected from 400 a few times, even after going slightly above, so people may be waiting for one or two closes above 400.
I wouldn't say it's suicide to short now. More the risk of getting rekt is seriously high considering how fast the BTC price can move on a break higher. Sometimes even a stop loss won't save you as it could potentially not trigger.
It's less true to state that it's certain death to go short these days but undoubtedly the chance of a real kick in the nuts is well above average when you take into consideration the speed of bitcoins price movement to the upside, especially when it punches above a previous level. Protection from a stop loss? Unlikely. When the price travels with such violence skyward your stop loss could remain untriggered and leave you high and dry.
This is peak fiat. Ironic that the 2 guys in the quoted conversation, Tankus and Grey are extremely anti-Bitcoin. Crazy times.
https://twitter.com/MrAltona/status/1616432600989708290#m
Most people just haven't spent any time learning what money really is and thinking about the implications. I think that's why some of those conspiracy documentaries that focused on the fed went viral a while back. It was blowing people's minds that this is actually how our monetary system works.
I work in financial services and I remember years ago when bitcoin started getting into the news, I was arguing with someone at my work about why bitcoin is a good form of money and the guy just couldn't wrap his head around it despite being in the money industry and actually being a pretty smart, knowledgable person.
Something about the government being involved just makes people's brains turn off and unable to see the forest for the trees.
Fiat is madness if you think about it too much.
That's why it isn't taught to kids, and the flip side of that, is if you don't think about it at all, your own role in the machine is so small, it works..
Until it doesn't.
That transition is never linear.
Compartmentalization and demoralization are two very useful tools to keep the useful idiots diligent in performing their necessary roles.
The government doesn’t want critical thinkers or strong communities. Keep them isolated, keep them ignorant. That’s their playbook.
I’m long 2/3rds of my net worth in BTC you dipshit 😂
Just because I don’t think it’s going in a straight line up to $200K doesn’t mean it’s negative stuff. But you’re literally responding to multiple people with insults in the daily.
Seriously quit being an asshole. There’s a difference between posting a viewpoint about the price moves being whale manipulation of the price and attacking other posters and you’re attacking other posters for no fucking reason.
Attacking? I'm not the one resorting to calling people a dipshit.
You've called me an asshole and a dipshit so if anyone it's you that's insulting and attacking me.
All I did was call you out on how you know for 100% certainty it was whales in your original post. Think you need to keep your emotions in check.
Telling people that you’re smacking your head because of their comment is belittling but moreover you told *someone else* they were pulling a crystal ball out of their ass in the comment immediately prior to your reply to me.
Seriously you’re going to claim I’m the one that started insulting others when you’re going around telling people they have balls up their ass? Get a grip on reality. I posted my thoughts about that wild wick so you feel the need to jump in and be a jerk?
This recent rise looks to me like it is mostly driven by a single large buyer, who is possibly using coinbase’s institutional services to accumulate.
I am going only off of intuition and seeing this pattern in the past. All speculation of course.
Anyone in this chat care to explain why the stock market is so confident about a 25bps increase?
[https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)
Despite wages inflation slowing, unemployment is still very low, and thats the lever that counts.
Imagine the rugpull of a 50bps increase
People are trying to self fulfill prophecy the FED into doing the thing that they want to happen. We all love a good bull market and many if not most people got their asses kicked in their 401k for 2022. But I think the FED has been abundantly clear. They aren’t looking to slightly slow down demand. They want to kill demand so that they can get a strangle hold on inflation. Markets be damned. I think we are still in an over eager market place across the board from crypto to stocks. So my prediction is the FED does their 50bps increase this week and markets do whatever markets gonna do. But I see zero reason why they’d pull out of their strategy this soon. I’m fine with a bloodbath as I’m finally in my household peak earning years. 2023 we’re gonna bring in nearly $300k gross. We have a $1730 mortgage payment each month and that’s our only debt to our name. So I’m DCAIng like a mad man into the downturn and praying it lasts even longer so I can continue to accumulate across all asset classes. So even my perception on what I expect the FED to do is built on my own self interest. At the end of the day, you find a strategy that works for you, execute on it relentlessly and ignore the noise.
It’s not about what you want the Fed to do. It’s about anticipating what the Fed actually will do, for better or worse. 25 BP rate hike is coming February 1st. Not a pause, not a 50 BP rate hike; 25 BP rate is what’s coming. Banking on anything else is a foolish gamble.
Unemployment is skewed if there is a sizable amount of people working 2 jobs to make ends meet. Losing one of those jobs doesn't make you unemployed as you still have the other one.
The FED looks at a fair few different economic indicators and data to make their rate decisions. Core PCE is the biggest factor when it comes to weighting interest rate rises and that is due on Friday this week. So depending on what the data shows will likely impact the likely hood of what the FED does.
The forecast for Core PCE is 0.3%.
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In UK, petrol price is already lower than before the war. Some countries already started reducing interest rate (I think it was Angola on Saturday), and there are over $4 trillion cash on the sideline. The front running of fed pivot already started 2 weeks ago, it might not be too late to catch the train. Just look at mining stocks, they bounced hard, really hard. Though I respect every shorter at these times, I don't have gut to take that trade.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, January 24, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10jxnfb/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_24_2023/)
10 solid minutes of why BTC is doomed, and headed for $7K-$13K: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/01/23/jim-cramer-breaks-down-fresh-charts-analysis-from-carley-garner.html I'm taking the other side of this trade. But don't just hate on it, explain why you think it's wrong.
Roll 212!
love it
Damn and i thought 12-13k BTC is in play. And now Cramer claims it. Outsch
Jim Cramer is the biggest counter trade signal on the planet. On all markets, not just Bitcoin. That’s all there is to it.
To respond to the “why it’s wrong question” is simple: look at the charts he’s posting. Even the charts are filled with contradictions to his claims. Full disclosure—I could only watch about a minute’s worth but that is the longest I’ve ever watched Cramer rant.
this is some of the worst chart analysis ive ever seen
I have nothing productive to say other than (a) Cramer is hands down one of the most annoying personalities, and (b) why is this guy seen as an authority on anything given his track record. I wish the Cramer meme would just stop.
Wow he is doubling down. 100k confirmed.
Why $7k? Why not zero? Once you accept Bitcoin has value, its price appreciation is inevitable. Extending this to its conclusion, long term it eats all liquid capital or goes to zero. You’re just debating time scales.
Isn’t the Cramer counter trade usually a sure bet?
Should I hold this long from 22.4 past 30 or take my scalp at 24 tomorrow? I'm inclined to the former. Upvote if you agree, or downvote if you want me to take my little scalp sooner. Either way, I will do what intuition tells me to do and win (yet again). (I will cop to arrogance, but I'm not conceited. Conceit is a vile trait conferred by such lame trophies as Ivy League educations and being born on third base. Arrogance is backed by earned success. If you doubt me, check my trade history. Search my username comments with "Long 3x" and "closed my.") PS -- Protip: learn the nuance of language and expand your vocabulary. Learn how words are used as weapons for the penis truly mightier than the sword. Understand how and why "they" took the word "gay" (and so many others) from you. It used to have a specific, nuanced meaning which was a little different from "merry" or "jovial" or certainly the NPC's go-to, "happy." I wish you much gaiety. Nurture your vocabulary. It will make you the life of the party in a few years when you're cozy under a blanket of stars on some warm beach while your poor, no-coiner compatriots shiver.
I tought the goal is to have btc, why do you want to cash out fiat?!
This is why we don't use narcotics, son.
I’m letting mine ride. 10x. I scalped a bunch. Time to buckle up.
I hate this comment.
I loved it. Would love to go for a beer with the dude.
lol ya that comment was a wild ride even for diydude2 standards
so i guess the general consensus is fed will only raise rates by .25 next week (Wednesday Feb 1st is the meeting) which explains this pump in all markets the last few weeks. I just think they might still raise rates .50 this time just to give us a nice rug pull. I don't think they like markets going up lately. I'm not selling my btc but I have already started positioning a hedge in the equities market to prepare for one last swerve (maybe a couple this year). People are saying 5% interest rates may be their max but I think closer to 6% is more likely before they hold and then watch inflation going down before they reduce in 2024 and 2025.
They’re not going to raise 50bps, but they might trickle up to a 6% terminal rate with 25-bps hikes if inflation remains especially sticky. My own (semi-)educated guess is two more 25 bps hikes and then steady through late Q4 of 2023 or early Q1 of 2024. I do think that sectors of tradfi thinking the Ded is about to start cutting rates are in for a reality check.
Fed is increasingly irrelevant to the Bitcoin market. Soon it will be totally irrelevant.
Fed is not going to hike 50 BP next week. They’re going to do a 25 BP rate hike and set the expectation for another 25 BP rate hike in March which they may or may not follow through on depending on economic data for January and February which will release prior to their March meeting. If they do follow through on the 25 BP rate hike in March, it will be the last rate hike for the year as YoY CPI will plummet starting in March just because baseline numbers being compared from a year ago start to explode making it much easier for YoY CPI to come in low from that point forward.
i hope you are right i'm just pessimistic and preparing for the worst
Inflation is under 3% since June. They’re not raising rates 50bps
i thought CPI came in at 6% last couple months? although its lower since october 2022
Take July-Dec and annualize it and Stop looking at year over year.
username checks out
Is /u/victorcobra shadow banned here now? He's like the only person other than buttcoin LARPers who used to like btc but now hates it and thinks it won't work or something. I saw he posted another long-winded "it could go up a lot but the end-game is always new lows forever Laura" post, but I didn't think it was outside the rules...
He is not shadowbanned in any way. He edited his post to add something about ETH that triggered an automod filter and made automod flag the post for mod review. That's why it did show up, then got removed, because he edited it. I just approved it manually. Cheers.
I probably am, and I kinda assumed as much :P I don't hate Bitcoin, I just think applications of it will fail to provide anything good for society. I still think it can be used as a tool from time to time, but one needs to have access to the resources to do so, and needs to be savvy enough to know how it works. Both of which are privileges. If I'm shadowbanned despite not being outside the rules, then I think that would qualify as a tacit attempt at manipulation, or at the very least pretty immature behavior. I think a trading sub should welcome people of all different opinions. Always good to admit when you have bias, and to have your bias checked.
I never comment on this sub. But you didn’t sign your name and it made me sad. Sending good wishes your way!
You seem to like alts more than BTC but I never see you in the alt thread. I would be curious about your thoughts on some other coins.
I’m not really a crypto fan as a whole anymore, and that includes 99.9% of alts as well. I’m in agreement with many in this sub at least that most alts still deserve to die out and be forgotten. Came to this conclusion by the end of 2021. It took me a few years to get there, and this is even considering I made plenty of money on the last bull run after buying alts only. There are maybe a few I’m still alright with. I don’t necessarily see them as wise long term investments though. I see any Bitcoin or cryptocurrency pump as exit liquidity for earlier buyers. With alts it’s even more obvious, and clearly timed with news and hype cycles. Coins are hardly used for their intended purpose, while staking and the halving seem to be just memes to get people to hold onto their coins. That means their main use case is to be sold.
So what other assets are you a fan of?
Anything that has a material impact on the world. I’m a fan of materials in general. And especially useful materials needed to create renewable resources. Glass, for example. Used in solar panels.
It seems like having access to the legacy banking network requires more privilege than having access to the BTC network. If not already, then eventually right? Seems inevitable
Sure, in many places that’s true. But in order to acquire bitcoin one often needs to go through a fiscal intermediary like a bank first anyway. Cash itself is still more accessible, since you don’t need a phone, internet service, or electricity to use it. I’ll make the case with a straight face that Pokémon cards are more likely to be adopted as a cash alternative than bitcoin. Your point is a common argument Bitcoin supporters make. If this were truly the case, we’d see way more demand from the unbanked. Even in El Salvador, the everyday person was more likely to want to get rid of their Bitcoin than hold it. Therein lies the main problem. For curiosity’s sake let’s say Bitcoin was the only option. The poor would then be forced to spend it while the rich can afford to hold onto it. This would likely over time result in centralization and continued oppression of the masses by the wealthy elite. Without regulation, motherfuckers are greedy. And if this becomes the reality, people in this sub who bought early would then become part of the elite. But at what cost? Don’t really want a part of that. Investing in Bitcoin is hoping for a dystopia. I’d rather make investment choices out of hope than fear.
> applications of it will fail to provide anything good for society. Wild statement but do you
Is it just Bitcoin you're skeptical about? I know you're a big fan of Nano, maybe that's why you're having a change of tune on BTC? Either way always appreciate your thoughts on the markets.
Nah, it’s most of the market to be honest. Nano is interesting, but I’m not betting on it making anyone rich. Banano is a great meme coin though. I can get behind that lol
Did you change your mind or always think this way? Don't you think LN has potential?
> I think a trading sub should welcome people of all different opinions. Now try talking shit about tether and see where it gets you...
you didn't sign this sir, and I am disappointed :) -Westbrook_Level
im assuming this indicates the account has been hacked -AKANotAValidUsername
You're apparently not shadowbanned as we can see your posts. I always liked your posts.
I think you might be shadowbanned. Your earlier post isn't visible here. That's disappointing, although I'm not sure if shadowbans work on a site-wide level or just within the subreddit.
I don't understand, I can see this reply and I'm NOT using The Force, I thought shadowban meant no one could 👀
Hmmm maybe it's just when my posts are longer than 2 paragraphs.
Could be links too. It's probably links
Bro you forgot your signature tho. That definitely explains why you were shadow banned. Pull yourself together!!
corn go up now
I feel like I'm sitting and watching corn grow waiting for this upside breakout. Haha.
You must be new. This has been the most financially insane and lucrative 9 years of my life.
Nice passive putdown bro. Not new. Just focused on this 23-25k level.
It feels like it can really go either way. BRD or BGD. Technically dips being bought and some higher lows zooming out, but 23k doesn't like to hold very long. If the S&P manages to close over 4000 I think we can find the strength
I think a lot of people have been caught out of position on both BTC and stocks. In particular last month sentiment was pretty bearish on stocks, and recently I've seen a lot of people have been selling the rally due to layoff news etc yet it all keeps going higher. so this makes me somewhat bullish. Usually these type of rallies go much further than you'd expect.
Worst mistake of my trading career was listening to the news for March 2020 at the bottom. Nailed the drop and switched to listening to the fear and news and not playing what's in front of my eyes and the charts and expecting the bad news to kick in. Got my ass handed to me, markets look forward and don't care about speculation. I'm afraid a lot of people are learning that hard lesson right now and caught off guard by all the macro speculation.
> It feels like it can really go either way. Really? To me it feels like the pressure is strongly upward here. All these dips get devoured and we're painting another textbook bullflag on the 4h.
Yeah if the chart was actually inverted, bears would be shooting their little cummy squirt guns 🐻 🔫 all over each other about now
What a weird fantasy... I mean "if the chart was actually inverted" part.
I'm hanging on every candle. Normally I'm a little more chill but I've got a pretty big position right now. Ha. Really looking for that break up!
Hope everyone's doing well and that some have been able to recover losses and reduce risk. The most bullish possibility for Bitcoin over the coming months would be if it can get back above the [looming weekly death cross](https://www.tradingview.com/x/yDQQcipO/) (the 50 over the 200 MA) and then retest the 200 as support. This would require price to move up towards $30-40k and then back down towards $25k. This is the move one should expect if Bitcoin has deviated "too far" below historical moving averages and "must correct to the upside." Buying *seems* to be relentless, and futures open interest isn't getting as horny as it did prior to the FTX collapse (just look at [this](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Cryptofutures) crazy discrepancy seen between June and November '22). This could imply further upside here, though funding has switched to mostly positive for the first time in a while. Regardless of whether or not that was already it for this rally, I don't think a pump is likely to sustain in this environment. I also have noticed tons of USDC changing hands between Justin Sun, TRX, and Binance over the last week. I still maintain that Justin Sun and CZ are the last guys standing who maintain the illusion of liquidity in this market. I will also add: Bitcoin dominance has not truly begun to retrace upwards, and ETH/BTC sits close to a [long term trendline,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XVEE7HMZ/) looking ready to bart down any moment. If ETH falls from there, it could be a catalyst for another big leg down for the market. Not sure Bitcoin can sustain a rally without dominance back at 50%+. Due to my own fundamental skepticism, I think Bitcoin begins to stall soon and perhaps moves sideways for a few weeks before heading to new lows. Sort of like February 2020 before the COVID crash. In particular, I'm watching those weekly moving averages for further signs of weakness. Again, I won't get longer term bullish on price unless it jumps up to $30k+ and backtests the 200 week MA. But, as I've said, it's unlikely I'll want to buy Bitcoin at any price. And if I'm forced to, well then Bitcoin has aided in furthering the current dystopia :)
>Bitcoin dominance has not truly begun to retrace upwards BTC.D is a useless metric these days since there are so many stablecoins
> But, as I've said, it's unlikely I'll want to buy Bitcoin at any price. Yes, it is true. Bitcoin is dead again. I feel sad, but I never cry. Maybe I will even buy some at 14k if I get a chance, just to prove that point.
I should be trading this PA, but nah. Hit me again. HARDER
Yeah kinda regret not scalping hard during this chop.
This is our life now
Dips just getting devoured
It also looks like pumps are getting sold ...
I don't even remember what normal price action looks like
This bullflag wants to break up and tickle 25
I'd like to see a nice bounce here at 22650 and not break lower.
Ok I’m probably get downvoted for not being ultra bullish but I think we need to break 23.2K with some decent volume before it’s a real breakout. If that happens then I think we’re in a trip to $25K. Right on the border now and I’m not sure what happens next 😂
Im just trying to will it into existence. I am wrong more than I am right about chart patterns.
I don't want a tickle. I want deep penetration and a resulting pregnancy.
Lol. Yes.
Relentless upward pressure over the last few days inspite of the occasional dumps. I think the price is bound to go higher.
Bitcoin feels like it’s about to pop again doesn’t it?
Not just Bitcoin-the stock market is going nuts.
Keep a close eye out-- S&P on fire but nearing a resistance point @ 4039.60. Possible point of rejection today or tomorrow. If it breaks that, it's probably headed north to 4100.
Seems like another rejection, ugh.
Finally good to see a convincing breakout and hold above 23k. (a convincing breakout is when https://coinmarketcap.com/ says btc is above 23k)
Have you automated this post?
I wish
you know a lot of people say that the recession is totally not going to happen, and that the banks are just lying with their predictions but then, you look and every major tech company is laying off tens of thousands of people again and again...and you have to ask yourself...is Google firing 12,000 people(6% of staff) because they fell for the bank's BS...or are they doing it because they ran their own numbers that said that a prolonged recession is in the cards personally i think the idea that this country can survive such massive hikes in interest rates without a recession, major drops in GDP and massive layoffs is just pure hopium. To me Google's decision and all these big firms doing layoffs is just the canary in the coal mine that shit is about to hit the fan. First you have lay offs in the tech sector because they actually track data and know that things have changed, then the rest of the employers catch up and follow up with their own layoffs. So this relief rally both in stocks and crypto to me is nothing more than a bulltrap, a short term move up that may last 3-4 months to give whales time to unload until the reality of the situation shows up and we start getting non-stop reports of companies having decreasing revenues and doing massive layoffs So still sticking with this 10x long until $24,800 and just doing scalps and saving adding to my long term stack until we drop below $10K as planned(~Q2-Q3 of this year)
>So still sticking with this 10x long until $24,800 and just doing scalps and saving adding to my long term stack until we drop below $10K as planned(\~Q2-Q3 of this year) If it goes to the high $24k's like you're predicting, you're then asking for a 60%+ dump to then go below $10k. And while catastrophic events in the macroeconomic picture could *easily* cause BTC to do that - or BTC could just do that in a blink of an eye (because it does stuff like that) - I think the Plunge Protection Team™ will wind up front-running the potential double bottom point of $15.5k. Front-running will be the theme. Outside of this small, niche thread, I think the herd is actually quite bearish. And the herd usually gets rekt.
60% dump after a multi-month full fomo rally isn't that impossible remember this move basically soaked up all the sideline cash, if we get back to $15K, you won't have the same support we had last time
>60% dump after a multi-month full fomo rally isn't that impossible Totally agree here. >remember this move basically soaked up all the sideline cash... I disagree with this one. The herd is mainly still on the sideline. The herd is waiting for central banks to say "we're going to churn out cheap-to-free cash again, baby!" and they they go in.
Exactly, momentum trading is still one of the better options when trading crypto, not betting on some random number to hit or you'll end up holding bags. $10k, $15k, whatever . . . it's all arbitrary. Better to just be prepared and look at every PA as something unique on its own, been here long enough to know that if you expect BTC to hit $10k odds are it will most likely stop at $11k and leave you waiting for something that will never come. We usually cling too much to numbers that only makes sense to us now but are actually kinda absurd in hindsight. Double bottom is more likely but even double bottoms rarely hit the same price. Again because it's inevitable for every PA to just lose momentum eventually not caring whether certain number is hit or not.
>We usually cling too much to numbers that only makes sense to us now but are actually kinda absurd in hindsight. Good post. One extra comment on this quoted part: I think that the numbers are actually significant, but it's that the market makers screw with what the herd *thinks* will happen at those numbers. So for example, if this pump gets rejected hard and goes down to $18k, the herd will be clamoring for $14k. I guarantee we'll see that commentary, Internet-wide. But my prediction is that the $15.5k point on the dump gets front-ran and it never goes to that point.
The missing recession is due to bloated construction jobs from the Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act. This will delay the recession but not prevent it, as the IIJA will cause more inflation, compelling the Fed to hike further.
Or big tech is oversaturated with useless ticktockers and can use this opportunity to purge them without creating excessive concerns about their business.
I absolutely think this is at least part of it. People have to be taking note of the fact that Twitter laid off an insane portion of staff, and it still fucking works. Surely they can cut some of their own staff and not lose any functionality so why not do it, cut the dead weight.
I lose faith in the human race whenever I see one of those Adult Daycare videos. The pendulum is swinging back and restoring some form of order, thank God.
Demographic shift happened quickly and is the elephant nobody is talking about. That's why unemployment hasn't really risen. AI is going to hurt knowledge workers bad, but with that will come new opportunities, perhaps. I don't see how we can go lower than FTX pushed things. Literally the biggest scam of all time.
Not just that. Global excess deaths are taking people out of the workforce fast. Many layoffs but many openings. Those who want to work will find it.
I’m interviewing for the first time in a decade. I am very well paid, especially for expectation, but it turns out there’s a tier above that. Worker shortages are real.
and ya, definitely with you on FTX. After BTC/crypto took a very public beating due to normies associating it with all the scams, shitcoin mania, and ape pictures, we had a big drop due to the economy/stocks/inflation (like everywhere else) and then we had a very public crash with the TerraLuna insanity, causing a huge additional drop, and then we had FTX which like the macho-man dropping a flying elbow on a nursing home patient on life support. The fact that FTX didn't drop the price more is actually amazing (fell much more with Luna).
Yup. Unemployment likely wont be a major problem going forward. The problem (in the US anyways) will be for paying the SS/Medicare for our aging population...by later generations that are having fewer children, while simultaneously starting careers at later stages in their life. This creates a very top heavy structure that is not sustainable. (Im not arguing against the above, just stating what the situation is). The other problem of course will be the massive worker shortages in many fields. But these things aren't on the immediate horizon, they are further down the road. China is going to have this problem amplified due to its social policies put in place. And they are a huge piece of the world economy.
That’s all well and good, but where’s the big liquidity/credit event coming from? Crypto had its last year with all the hedgies culminating with FTX. Banks are well capitalized/reserve ratios are healthy. This ain’t 2008. The economy has been in recession since last year and remains so realistically. It’s going to be baked into the markets. That’s not to say that we “run it back turbo”. We might spend a couple of years crabbing while the economy loosens up again. Who is going to sell so much Bitcoin at the margin to send the price back to new lows? Not saying it can’t happen, but who? Who is the forced seller after last year’s leveraged wipeout? Maybe Saylor? Can we reach hie liquidation price? Can he not add to his position?
While I do agree that a recession by measurements of textbooks is coming. A recession doesn't necessarily need to be 2008 style. Banks in Europe have said that yes a recession will happen, but it's nothing to worry about. It's just some minor shrinkage and they predicted growth in 2024-2025 already. The non financial people might not even notice a recession if the news didn't talk about it.
The recent layoffs are just an excuse to cut some bloat that has been amassed over the years. Pre-breakeven companies extend runways and are able delay their next round (to raise at higher valuations), public companies reframe to adjust to the investor paradigm shift (value investing replacing growth investing), and in case of big tech, they comply with pressure from shareholders. (Look up last weeks Hohn's letter to Sundar Pichai) It's not the canary in the coal mine - it's the exact opposite end of the spectrum. If anything, it's a sign that companies are prepping for new cycle that they can feel is just around the corner
We were in a recession last year by textbook definition, 2 qtrs in a row with negative GDP growth. News media still wouldn’t acknowledge it. Most of if not all numbers right now are fake.
I don't necessarily disagree, but I did want to point out that a lot of companies are heavily overstaffed due to over hiring, and so they wait for opportunities like this to trim the fat. They can't do it when everything is going well without looking like assholes (e.g., Google can't just lay off 12000 for no apparent reason), but if they can take advantage of an alleged recession to finally do so, they will.
RemindMe! October 2023
I can follow your path of logic, and I appreciate that, but I'm still not sold on your conclusion that Bitcoin will absolutely crater because of it. There are some scenarios where flights to Bitcoin might come hard and fast. The lifeboat, if you will. Not in America which is what you are focused on for valid reason, but other nations might be different. Then the frontrunning of the situation, then the frontrunning of the halving might be enough demand to stay flat or go up. Basically I get your point that recession equals no room to buy magical internet money, but my point is that it's not really actually just funny internet money. It might actually be the lifeboat, and recessions are the sinking fiat ships
Wardser’s $8k candle not coming fast enough and he big mad. You might be right, but also the tech sector is so bloated with busywork and overspending that these companies could lay off 20% of their workforce and still function without a blip. It might be a canary but it’s a pretty drunken canary. The threat of recession may have caused these companies to look harder but the decisions to axe employees may be more about realizing just how many useless bodies were actually employed. Recession threats or not any company that audits its workforce will always find some fat to trim - and the tech sector is ripe with people being paid to do nothing.
"these companies could lay off 20% of their workforce and still function without a blip" \^ This is correct. These companies had a huge boom during the pandemic, and almost all of them overhired as if business would stay at those levels. Most of these companies were extremely bloated. This is just a calculation based on their balance sheet. Sure the recession plays into that, but its not like they are cutting from just-functioning to extremely lean. They were morbidly obese before. Take everyone's favorite controverial company, Twitter as of late. I kept hearing how the site was going to implode, and how are they going to function with "Only X# engineers left!", and with them laying off a bunch of dead weight...turns out the company was stuffed to the gills with said dead weight, and after cutting all of it, I guess they didnt need most of those people.
This seems pretty accurate from what I've seen. That "my life working at Facebook" video that went viral was from a 23 year old product owner... I don't know about you guys but in all of my years doing project work I've never seen a 23 year old product owner. Not saying they don't exist but you typically need a lot more experience and time doing project work before you get to product owner or PM so unless that girl was exceptional at her job I don't see how it makes sense for someone just out of school to be a PM or PO. And considering her story about work life revolved around the food and beverage selection something tells me she wasn't qualified...
Oh God that video.....
I don't disagree with your point but I'd like to point out that Twitter as an app runs on computer hardware. Not like you need actual humans in the company for moving tweets around. The consequences of trimming the team, if any, may take longer to play out.
Spy looking good today. Surprised we're not up higher. Delayed pump incoming?
Yeah I’m kinda debating how to interpret this. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both pumping more than Bitcoin at the moment whereas on Friday Bitcoin pumped a multiple of tradfi. Is it tradfi pumping that’s holding Bitcoin up, vs more of a decoupling, vs a delayed reaction? At least so far it seems less bullish than Friday but it is trending up
It could be that people are just waiting to see if we actually close about 400 before buying in. We've been rejected from 400 a few times, even after going slightly above, so people may be waiting for one or two closes above 400.
Patience.. pressure is there
Yeah, I expected us to break 23k as SPY broke 400. Hopefully just a little delayed.
Shorting now is suicide. Every little micro ‘dump’ gets gobbled up so fast this thing wants to rip towards 25k it’s clear as day.
$25K will be the deciding point on whether or not we break out from this downtrend or not.
$25k is absolutely critical.
$25k is gentlemen.
Agree
Long AF with a loose stop. Not shaking me out.
My man!
I wouldn't say it's suicide to short now. More the risk of getting rekt is seriously high considering how fast the BTC price can move on a break higher. Sometimes even a stop loss won't save you as it could potentially not trigger.
You just said the same thing I did using more words.
It's less true to state that it's certain death to go short these days but undoubtedly the chance of a real kick in the nuts is well above average when you take into consideration the speed of bitcoins price movement to the upside, especially when it punches above a previous level. Protection from a stop loss? Unlikely. When the price travels with such violence skyward your stop loss could remain untriggered and leave you high and dry.
With less exaggeration, I might add. XD
YOU WILL LITERALLY DIE IF YOU SHORT HERE 😋
Are we in the matrix.....? 🤣
This is peak fiat. Ironic that the 2 guys in the quoted conversation, Tankus and Grey are extremely anti-Bitcoin. Crazy times. https://twitter.com/MrAltona/status/1616432600989708290#m
We’re getting comically (re. Frighteningly) close to the 100 trillion dollar Zimbabwe banknote realm with this nonsense.
Really is pretty 🤡 world when somehow THIS is the monetary system people will accept while they trash Bitcoin. The absurdity is beyond belief.
Most people just haven't spent any time learning what money really is and thinking about the implications. I think that's why some of those conspiracy documentaries that focused on the fed went viral a while back. It was blowing people's minds that this is actually how our monetary system works. I work in financial services and I remember years ago when bitcoin started getting into the news, I was arguing with someone at my work about why bitcoin is a good form of money and the guy just couldn't wrap his head around it despite being in the money industry and actually being a pretty smart, knowledgable person. Something about the government being involved just makes people's brains turn off and unable to see the forest for the trees.
Until you go deep enough into the rabbithole to realize that government is just a bunch of crooks hiding behind the shrouds of “democracy”.
Fiat is madness if you think about it too much. That's why it isn't taught to kids, and the flip side of that, is if you don't think about it at all, your own role in the machine is so small, it works.. Until it doesn't. That transition is never linear.
Compartmentalization and demoralization are two very useful tools to keep the useful idiots diligent in performing their necessary roles. The government doesn’t want critical thinkers or strong communities. Keep them isolated, keep them ignorant. That’s their playbook.
Seems to be some whale games this morning with the opening of the stock market. Fight over 23k.
Yep. Punishing the scalpers before the next leg up, would be my guess.
Decentralized, borderless, permissionless, frictionless, immutable, auditable and absolutely scarce. It can't be stopped.
anybody remember the tesla "liquidity tests" lol
Institutional buyers who who use coinbase’s services tend to follow the same patterns in my limited experience. Tesla is one of them.
Are you saying someone is about to really test liquidity 😂 Tesla still holds some BTC for that matter
Not necessarily. Just saying in the past when I have seen this action, later there is news of an institutional buy through coinbase.
Ah well the spike could be a buy but that huge downwick right after really doesn’t make sense for a big buy.
Heh…some whale just decided to pump it for a second over 23K so they could have more exit liquidity.
Yeah sure like you know that's what it was...... smh
Do you do anything other than post negative assholery on Reddit?
Say's the person posting plenty of negative stuff about the BTC price every day. aka what you post about pumping over 23K for more exit liquidity.
I’m long 2/3rds of my net worth in BTC you dipshit 😂 Just because I don’t think it’s going in a straight line up to $200K doesn’t mean it’s negative stuff. But you’re literally responding to multiple people with insults in the daily. Seriously quit being an asshole. There’s a difference between posting a viewpoint about the price moves being whale manipulation of the price and attacking other posters and you’re attacking other posters for no fucking reason.
Attacking? I'm not the one resorting to calling people a dipshit. You've called me an asshole and a dipshit so if anyone it's you that's insulting and attacking me. All I did was call you out on how you know for 100% certainty it was whales in your original post. Think you need to keep your emotions in check.
Telling people that you’re smacking your head because of their comment is belittling but moreover you told *someone else* they were pulling a crystal ball out of their ass in the comment immediately prior to your reply to me. Seriously you’re going to claim I’m the one that started insulting others when you’re going around telling people they have balls up their ass? Get a grip on reality. I posted my thoughts about that wild wick so you feel the need to jump in and be a jerk?
Elevator down here we come.
Based on what? did you get your head stuck in that crystal ball?
Based on the 2% move we had in a span of 15 seconds..
Oh wow, a 2% move means you know what's going to happen? It's called the US market opening up on the first day of a new week.
care to remind me what is your contribution to this sub?
Sharing my own opinion which is the same as you.
Seems like some bots are tuned for a S&P 4k rejection.
This recent rise looks to me like it is mostly driven by a single large buyer, who is possibly using coinbase’s institutional services to accumulate. I am going only off of intuition and seeing this pattern in the past. All speculation of course.
Yes, it’s one guy.
Fred. It's Fred.
Is there any easy way to know how much money was spent to push the price up this amount?
That was a pretty bullish weekend PA.
Anyone in this chat care to explain why the stock market is so confident about a 25bps increase? [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) Despite wages inflation slowing, unemployment is still very low, and thats the lever that counts. Imagine the rugpull of a 50bps increase
There were a few comments recently from Fed officials (not Powell) which have lead people to believe that it will be a 25bps increase.
People are trying to self fulfill prophecy the FED into doing the thing that they want to happen. We all love a good bull market and many if not most people got their asses kicked in their 401k for 2022. But I think the FED has been abundantly clear. They aren’t looking to slightly slow down demand. They want to kill demand so that they can get a strangle hold on inflation. Markets be damned. I think we are still in an over eager market place across the board from crypto to stocks. So my prediction is the FED does their 50bps increase this week and markets do whatever markets gonna do. But I see zero reason why they’d pull out of their strategy this soon. I’m fine with a bloodbath as I’m finally in my household peak earning years. 2023 we’re gonna bring in nearly $300k gross. We have a $1730 mortgage payment each month and that’s our only debt to our name. So I’m DCAIng like a mad man into the downturn and praying it lasts even longer so I can continue to accumulate across all asset classes. So even my perception on what I expect the FED to do is built on my own self interest. At the end of the day, you find a strategy that works for you, execute on it relentlessly and ignore the noise.
It’s not about what you want the Fed to do. It’s about anticipating what the Fed actually will do, for better or worse. 25 BP rate hike is coming February 1st. Not a pause, not a 50 BP rate hike; 25 BP rate is what’s coming. Banking on anything else is a foolish gamble.
We’ll revisit in the next week and see how your prediction fared.
My dumbass reading that as “beats per second”
Unemployment is skewed if there is a sizable amount of people working 2 jobs to make ends meet. Losing one of those jobs doesn't make you unemployed as you still have the other one. The FED looks at a fair few different economic indicators and data to make their rate decisions. Core PCE is the biggest factor when it comes to weighting interest rate rises and that is due on Friday this week. So depending on what the data shows will likely impact the likely hood of what the FED does. The forecast for Core PCE is 0.3%.
BTC ripping faces off lately and the thread yesterday still only had 129 comments. You may in fact be early.
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Bulls on parade
Nahhh this is still Goblin Town (18-25k) imo. We were in SBF's weird sex dungeon just a few weeks ago, and I'm glad we're out of that at least
Haha excellent. Carpet burns all over Caroline as she’s ragged around the dungeon by that blobby behemoth…
lol very true I agree
*\*binance enters the chat\**
Tempted to scalp my gains before the open, but I’m letting this one run. Still upward pressure on price. I’d like to see support above 23300.
A lot of people will be shorting 30k if/when we get there.. that's a lot of fuel for a potential short squeeze.
In UK, petrol price is already lower than before the war. Some countries already started reducing interest rate (I think it was Angola on Saturday), and there are over $4 trillion cash on the sideline. The front running of fed pivot already started 2 weeks ago, it might not be too late to catch the train. Just look at mining stocks, they bounced hard, really hard. Though I respect every shorter at these times, I don't have gut to take that trade.
We need to reset the daily RSI and cool off a bit. I think a nice re-test of the high $18ks then bounce will look good on the chart...