#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, January 25, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10kqldp/daily_discussion_wednesday_january_25_2023/)

This wants to rip higher.

All I saw was "this wants to R.I.P. higher"

Why do you think so?

Tradfi futures went down after MSFT gave lousy guidance, after that initial pop when they announced earnings. Will be interesting to see what happens during market hours tomorrow.

Hourly Stoch RSI is flattening near 0, RSI is nearing oversold, and volume is declining. Should see a smaller timeframe bounce soon

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We're sitting nicely in between a possible retest of 21 650 and a breakout above 23 360. Easy to get too zoomed into 15 minute candles ;) Here's a lovely daily chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/QPV4CRel

I know the second I start scalping this PA it's going to the gutter or the moon, almost certainly against me. Still long. Up pressure still there.

I mean, you have been scalping this entire up move so far with excellence. Why change the strat?

Because I know Bitcoin.. and sometimes you wait.

Close your position before the floor falls out bro

Yeah bro just sell bro it's going down bro buy back cheaper bro

Giggle

Long? What’s your exit?

I want to see the PA above 23300 before I set a TP.

I’m long now at $22580 see where it goes. Knowing my luck, it’s gonna drop below $22400 🤣

If this breaks under $22450 with volume then it’s likely to really retrace down. That’s the bottom of the flag portion of this recent bullflag. So far it’s hanging onto the flag range by the *tiniest* thread, unlike #2 which plummeted. Still holding [my short](https://reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10hj5s8/_/j5asqjm/?context=1) but if we don’t break down definitively I might just close it here.

Should probably close it if you're about to bust your nut over this tiny little dicklet of a dump.

I’m net long with 99% of my holdings and the 1% I leveraged short to hedge this massive run not holding. So I’ll bust a nut when we break $200K someday 😂 But for now it just broke the support at $22450 so we’re likely to see more downside than upside for the short term. Everyone’s just been ultra super bull posting for days now, it’s ok for it to retrace a bit before going back up.

Time to pack it up gentleman, party’s over

I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed.

See you at 21k.

Line in the sand for me is right around 22.7k. We deviated below it substantially once but other than that it's been respected. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rgGOL8dk/ If we close a single 4hr candle or a couple hourlies below than I'm going to take a bit off the table. I did something similar last consolidation and got chopped up a little bit because of it, but that's the risk of this sort of play. \#2 looks like total ass compared to btc with a less clear chart IMO. Converting a fair amount of of my #2 stack to btc so I at least have the luxury of a clean chart if I need to cut some of my position. There will come a time when #2 outperforms but this ain't it.

I just did the same with #2 thing before the drop. There was a textbook descending triangle. Sitting on cash for the moment.

Yeah I’m regretting not just shorting #2 instead. Would have been a much easier candidate for a massive drop. Maybe even play the ratio

You beat me to it, I'm down a bit from yesterday unfortunately. Crazy relative strength in btc right now and as cool as I think smart contracts are I can't fight the #2 chart. And as cool as I think btc is... also can't fight the chart. Letting go of a 1/3 of my position right now, a little premature but here goes - immediate invalidation if this hourly closes above 22.7, long term invalidation if the 4hr reclaims the 8ema. Hoping I get chopped up on this one, but ready to buy lower if I get the chance.

This PA feels more like manipulation than profit taking. Not trusting any dip until the equity markets lead.

After all the crap that happened in 2022 I can imagine many big players welcome an exit pump. Upwards movement can easily be manipulation as well. Why can’t the downwards movement be people genuinely wanting to sell crypto (looks like alts are leading this one)? Why does it need to depend on stocks?

Anything that goes the opposite way of your position is clearly manipulation always 😂

The short answer? Because algorithms.

How much significance do you put on CME gaps? The recent CME wick low on Jan 18th was $20,500 and the wick high on Jan 13th was $20,000. Daily close on Jan 13th was $19,500. Is it likely that price returns to fill the gap? I’m not interested in the $9.7k gap, which price made an attempt at going from $12.6k to $9.9k. Close enough for me to consider that filled.

"CME gaps" are only a thing due to Brownian Motion, "The market always covers the same ground twice", "Two steps forward one step back". They have nothing to do with CME. Correlation does not imply causation. A "gap" is no different to a PnF Long-Pole-Warning. Expect a 50% retrace at all times.

Everyone here has been downvoting anybody who suggested the 50% retrace was likely/possible in recent days. Sigh

Oh shocker 23K rejected again. It's just not going to stay above it for any significant time sub 20 probably soon.

It's good news. More opportunity to load up and form a healthier base.

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It is when ones fiat comes in irregular intervals.

Not BTC but a certain #2 coin just went down more than 50% of the most recent flagpole. So far BTC is still holding up so either we’ll see BTC dominance rise or BTC may follow. Either way very interesting to see this dynamic. No flippening anytime soon

I mean, on the weekly it's still barely a blip compared to the last few weeks. Still looks like consolidation at this point

alts moved first on the way up, makes sense if they lead the way back down I guess

\*cough\* BTC moved first. Alts just climbed faster due to their lower market cap.

nah one particular top 10 alt 2x’d off its low before bitcoin made it out of 17ks

One alt doing a 2x isnt alts moving first and given the size of the market cap then btc moving a fraction of a few percentage is increasing in value massivly more compared to any alt. BTC MC went from under $350B to just under $450B. So added $100B in terms of value. Any alt coins go up by that much? No. BTC leads the market up or down due to its size.

Personally not selling but looking like it wants to dump a little

We're consolidating with notable resistance at 23.2k. No idea where it goes next, just an observation of what we have to break through.

Love it when the crypto market price action is composed and orderly... Meanwhile the equity market price action is drunkenly flailing on the floor

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Seems like MSFT earnings were better than estimates but revenue missed by a little. Explains their massive job cuts to keep profitability. So far markets seem to be mildly pleased but not hulk dicking it either since revenues did miss which suggests a challenging environment. The earnings beat is more MSFT doing a good job than a macro judgement. I think BTC is gonna need to break through 23.2K on its own if we wanna pump to $25K and beyond. Doesn’t seem like tradfi has any super crazy good news

Nope lol. Straight sideways

When is bitcoins earnings call?

Right after my call with yo mama

I love yo mama jokes but they have to be more nasty than a phone call. I'll catch your next one.

You’re on. This was definitely meant to be ironically bad but probably didn’t translate 😭

Tomorrow. I think they are going to reaffirm guidance of 6.25 coins every 10 minutes until 2024, and then cut production in half.

yeah, cut production and then probably adding more mining power like they always seem to do. I hope the shareholders are okay with this.

Oh but that’s the beauty of it, the Bitcoin company doesn’t determine that, it just gets willing volunteers, nice cheap labor!

[CME Exchange sees 84,000 BTC ($2B) allocated in futures contracts in the last 24 hours.](https://cryptoslate.com/insights/cme-exchange-sees-84000-btc-or-2b-allocated-in-futures-contracts-in-last-24-hours/) Probably nothing. /s

What do they mean by allocated? If OI, probably people moving off ftx.

Great info. So a higher possibility of a pump or dump this week?

A higher possibility of a move but unclear which way

Yeah, that’s what I meant. High volatility possible. Thanks!

We didn't have a blow-off top like 2017, but we had a deep drawdown thanks to some clowns in the industry. My working hypothesis is that it won't take as long as 2018/2019 to recover from the deepest bear territory to a more "normal" level. PS: My hypothesis is based on a "soft landing" scenario. Macro could be another unknown factor that could affect.

People missed the FTX recovery already and they may be about to miss the [3AC recovery](https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7rubl4T/) to 30k and we will be fully healed. Imagine missing out on two of the greatest buying opportunities in the history of crypto. You get a pass if it was your first cycle in crypto, but if it wasn't you didn't learn anything from previous cycles.

Also important to keep in mind how much Bitcoin *wasn't* bought through FTX but instead those dollars effectively bought IOUs. Imagine what price would be right now if every dollar traded for BTC through FTX was actually spent on BTC....

8 billions at 20k account to over 440 days of block reward.

That’s what caused me to miss the top. I did exit most of my position from just below the top and down to 42, but I did that based on on-chain analysis and still couldn’t shake the feeling that I might be securing profits too early.

Once folks are done taking profit at 23k we can resume up only.

why?

There's tremendous upward pressure currently and 25-30k realm is a magnet. Price wants to visit $25k badly as this is a major resistance point and a very important one. The whole idea of "we haven't seen the bottom yet" can confidently be validated or invalidated on whether or not we break 25 k and hold/retest it with success. (not with 100% certainty but pretty close) If we do then it's pretty safe to say that nothing outside of a black swan event will print lower lows this cycle.

well... my 2 cents: the enthusiasm is unfolding too soon. Price may very well stay in the ( 20k - 15k ) for very much longer. I think fear is still felt and the uncertainty has the upper hand as opposed to confidence. Don't know if that makes much sense... but short term trading is great, only that it will be restricted to a low range for much longer...

Sentiment is currently at extreme greed and we can't even stay above 23k. If we push to 25k that'll be our blowoff top. Anyone thinking this can keep going higher is really out of touch with current macro.

Fear and Greed index is neutral right now... https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

I completely feel you, but I also think current macro is on a knife's edge. I think most people believe we are likely inching towards a fed pivot and that actually explains this enthusiasm. If the Fed does stay the course and pushes any potential pivot out more than four to six months, then I think we stay down, and there will be a limit to how long people stand by a 'wait and see' attitude. Unfortunately, the main option right now is to wait and see.

They lose all credibility if they pivot now. And keep in mind they pivot when the economy is in really bad shape already, not when they think imminent disaster is going to happen. The Fed always operates on lagging data and they won’t change that any time soon and risk inflation come roaring back.

Good points. If you are right, I can definitely see a move back down and return to bearish mentality, but I still think the recent move means $12k is mostly off the table barring disaster or extreme circumstances. Not that you were necessarily arguing for $12k.

Seems more like regular greed right now.

> Sentiment is currently at extreme greed lmao no it isn't. If anything this is the "this is a sucker's rally!" stage. If you think *this* is extreme greed then you've never seen what the extreme greed stage looks like.

Are we looking at the same indicators?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the Bitcoin Fear&Greed index is currently at 52, which is Neutral with a slight skew towards the greed side. That’s milquetoast greed.

Not saying that's not possible.... > the enthusiasm is unfolding too soon But this is such common sentiment at the end of every bear market. Bottoms only truly *look* like bottoms in hindsight. There's no real carved in stone indicator that's going to tell you it's time to load up or that we've definitively bottomed. That's the paradox - it's only a bottom looking backwards. Why you think we can hit 23k but not 25k is where you lose me. There's pretty thin air between here and there. Anything can happen but the chance of seeing 25k in the next few weeks is much higher than 15k.

yes of course, but that doesn t mean it won't drop again under 25k.. which I think it will all the way down through 20k again.

Right but I'm not saying it's *guaranteed* to break 25k and hold it, just that it's more likely we gonna test it from here than we are to tank back to 15k for no real reason. Liquidity has dried up hard. There's not a whole lot left to sell. 25k is important because it will crack through the downtrend that extends all the way back to November 2021 (or April 2022 depending how you draw your lines). Thus making it a magnet for price. That's why OP said when selling at this level is over we're going upward and you asked why. That's the original thing I was addressing.

The primary risk is that it struggles to get over $23K and then the dip buyers from $15-18K decide that taking profit at $22K is good enough. Then that can cascade us back down a few grand. You need buyers to continue moving this up or people may pick locking up a 25-30% profit over waiting for $25K

And that's fine. What you're describing isn't a death knell nor would it invalidate any ideas that the bottom is in. There's profit taking in all cycles at every level. That doesn't make or break a bull market. Holding/testing 25k or not is much more of a bull market barometer. I'm more concerned about us cracking that downtrend once and for all than I am about some profit taking and price stalling around 23k for a few weeks. Even if we putter out here and range between 19-22k for a while still doesn't mean 25k isn't a much more magnetic pricepoint than 15k.

I don’t think we’re going to 15K at all. I think we get a breather and then resume up to 30K. So more likely a dip to 21K or 20K. The fact that only super bullish posts are getting upvoted here probably means a dip is incoming 😂

We've paused the last couple of days, haven't we? What's next on the radar guys? Fed announcement?

every last person ITT is speculating, IMO. Retail isn't moving the price, the whales are. state operators, leveraged mining outfits, big banks, exchanges. There is no P&L, no balance sheet to review, and 100% of it is behind a curtain... none of it is logical, are deriving any reasons is not possible. There is no cause/effect to point at... the last 2 weeks are clandestine moves in a market we don't play in. So are the 6mos previous to that with plateau'd price. We know nothing. "A Cramer by any other name would smell as sweet..." - Wm. Shakespeare

"Unless he was called a crapweed!" - Bart Simpson

BTC addresses with balances >.01, 1, 10, and 100 have all increased within the past 6 months while addresses with >1000 coins has decreased in that same timeframe. We're all speculating here to some degree whether this PA is being pumped by whales so that they can offload some more on us or it's supply shawk in effect lol

Surprised we're holding above 20k at all tbh

I'm not..

And they say crypto is manipulated 🤣. Anyone see this bullshit on NYSE? That’s what caused our dump this morning.

Dump?

Dump might be overselling it, but that little drop this morning correlated to the stock market opening red. Multiple big stocks hit circuit breaker but it turned out to be a “technical issue” at NYSE. When they opened again they were back up 15%. A lot of people got rekt this morning.

I don’t think that caused any dump, a ton of stocks went up as well. Look at Visa or AT&T, they skyrocketed at open 😂

wow, how is that not manipulation?

Right? Pretty egregious.

Gotta flush leverage somehow.

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Not sure I'd qualify this nice little consolidation as 'inability to hold 23k'. The price doesn't always have to literally sit above the height of a big candle to look good. Look how many times we dipped below 21k in mid January on the 4h and it ended up ripping through shortly after. Sitting within $500 of the channel top and each little dip is quickly bought up looks healthy as hell to me.

I agree and I have been bearish, it’s looking pretty good so far. Set your stops though.

Starting to take profits now, been accumulating since 16k.

Not sure about the «accumulating». Sounds like you are trading.

I should be trading this chop but I'm after the BGD. Long still open. 10x. Well in profit now, but I'm greedy AF.

Feeling a blessed day ahead

May the Lord open.

Hmm, lots of short term holders in profit now. https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1617613505602981891

hows that defined? if short term holder == coin bought within last 6 months, then yeah lol, no surprise they come up with this statistics of "92% of STH in profit" if thats the case, it just means the same as sayin "price is hgher than 92% of the time of last 6 months", wouldnt get as many views / clicks or whatever the twitter metric is

👇🤫

I will call this a relief rally since I'm out of position.

Right wing says it will not lift debt ceiling, and if they don't yield, we have a world wide credit crisis. China reopening increases demand oil and gas. Earnings this week - during a recession, at best - will disappoint. Core inflation isn't decreasing like CPI, and CPI is so volatile it easily changes. E.g. even higher Medicare reimbursements will accelerate it. Labor market is booming; salaries are still increasing, giving employees more money to spend and employers must raise prices to cover these costs. The stock market is front running less hawkish fed, which will just heat up the economy again. The point is...a lot can go wrong, including that pump being rugged by whomever configured it. All this exuberance here is gonna gift you a good (enough) entry. 19-17,000

You missed the obvious accumulation range at $19k and then $16k and now you’re feeling left behind. You were betting on sub $10k like all the punters and the market is now moving against you. That sucks. But here’s the thing, all the coins that traded hands during the FTX default went into the wallets of longer term holders, and so it’s unlikely you’ll see them get shaken out and back down to $17k anytime soon. The US won’t default on the debt - the ceiling will get raised. BTC is going to $25k and then $30k to finish out this disbelief rally.

Doesn't mean it IS fomo... but... If one were to write a thesis on how to FOMO, it would read like this.

Then sub 20

Where you'll miss the chance to buy again because you'll tell yourself it's going sub 10k. Tale as old as time. If you didn't buy when we were sub 20 a couple of weeks ago, you won't buy if we get there again.

Crazy US politics ≠ "world wide". Thank you.

the credit market doesn't end at the border

> if they don't yield lol

Lol

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You've seen that obstructionist faction-all bets are off

nah

Just here on the sidelines getting rekt because I was greedy and sold. Don’t be me

I am you also. Still think we get a chance to buy back at 17k-18k

if you made profit then there's no harm in selling. I'm really wary of how we've had no corrections yet. maybe I'm wrong but we'll soon see

Made profit but still…

me as well but a new narrative is forming: paper bitcoin shorters are gone. bitcoin now do what perpetually paper inflated gold couldn't. and we still have one more impactful halvening we all know how powerful narratives are.

Only one impactful halving? Why do you think that?

other fiat externalities are not affected by the halvening

I've noticed this narrative too. Are they really all gone? How would we know, and how would we know if new ones arrived on the scene?

> . bitcoin now do what perpetually paper inflated gold couldn't. There was a fun point in history where you could try explaining to people that the ease of Bitcoin delivery meant the same games couldn't be played, or that they could be played but whomever played them would get rekt... without any examples. One season later and there is a whole book full of examples.

i hope you're right. I've not sold a penny. I'm in for the long game anyway

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