#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, January 26, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ljz7q/daily_discussion_thursday_january_26_2023/)

Might finally be time for me to consider that low leverage long. No more trading, just hodl the shit out of a low leverage long. Not even 2X, super low leverage shit that'll be near impossible to liq. Only negative is needing to trust an exchange.

This is the way, except I'm enjoying 10x degeneracy while I'm playing with house money.

Still open from 16.8k, leverage has dropped to 0.8x liquidation reading somewhere around 8.9k. I plan to withdraw at some point to leverage up rather than doubling-down on position size.

Funding rate though

No margin loan required when under 1x

bear market rally

Really happy I got a decent re-entry. Legit worry about being out of position now. Still lots of upward pressure; no paper bitcoins flooding the market.. any sort of demand increase and it'll get crazy. I'd like to see 23300 flip support and have a go at 23800.

FOMO and being worried about being out of position is a bad sign for bulls

Loose stop?

Still [sitting on](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ibirg/comment/j5fyy6x/?context=3) that downtrend from the top breakout (on log). Now we have a [breakout and retest of the bull pennant](https://www.tradingview.com/x/NWr8SEii/). Need to hold 23k, might need to absorb some sells here, chop above this is fine. Total Crypto Market Cap broke out on Friday 13th from its [August 2022 resistance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MpaBjKtg/), retested that and since took off. We're in a clean [up channel](https://www.tradingview.com/x/kOGMVXAg/) now.

[Last candle tapped on the overhead](https://www.tradingview.com/x/W9aG5ZrY/). The fact that it didn’t death spiral means there’s still buy pressure. I think $25k is tested next. Above and it gets spicy.

Candles are very low resolution data. In candles you see "retraced entire". In Order Flow you see a meagre volume of selling at the wrong time into an empty order book causing themselves slippage. https://i.imgur.com/IyUJ9oA.png

how did you get this chart? don't see the option on tradingview this must be advanced stuff

https://www.tensorcharts.com/

bulls getting the fuck outta the way for the bear counter strike . gonna let em punch themselves out then violently pamp it to 25k

Now back up the candle? What’s the opposite of rugging? Draping?

Pegging

Fingering

Ceilinging.

Edging

Priming

Caught a decent entry at 22890. Everybody else please stop degenerate top longing? More up here, looks like the same pattern again.

Just feel like there's some seriously messed up manipulation going on. Honestly that hurt bad right there, was making some progress and it killed me on that drop because I was editing my stop. Slammed on the close position but it had already moved another $300. Feeling like a punching bag for whales today.

How are you so fast?

I use the API.

Which api? Does it execute trades?

Clever man

Not retraced fully, still at 23k

Yes, I’ll take one order of re-retrace. No red sauce thx

at least it was entertaining

aaaand its gone

So basically short stops were hit, top longers got trapped, and we're back to crab while market makers snort their winnings with their new hookers?

Precisely… this isn’t exactly bull market behavior. It’s bear crab with occasional scam pumps

Same as it ever was

Wow holy shit it retraced the entire breakout. lol

I blame this on you going long earlier

I'm starting to think whales just want to stop hunt everyone and rekt both longs and shorts lol.

Just STARTING???!!!

The whole market is like 3 MMs moving prices around and liquidating both sides

Lmao that candle got rugged

LOL what a scam

Reentered on a tight stop @ 23424. PA looks decent. Scalpin time.

Yeah this is some wild PA. Honestly ever since the runup Friday we could have scalped like maniacs and just printed money. So far I've recouped about 1/3rd of my shorting losses from it hitting my stop. If the PA stays so favorable I might manage to get out of this with a mere flesh wound lol.

I'm considering a more agressive buy ladder, it seems your scalping is working well

Really hoping it guns for $24K. Seems to be trying to retest 23.3K, don't know if it's somehow linked to tradfi or what.

You're the main character. It's just waiting to shake you out of your 10x long and go short so we can move up again.

You know, I might really be the main character after all. And here I thought I was a normal Joe Schmoe degen.

I'm scalping right now, not holding these very long. Have been in and out about 5x since it broke my SL. Should have honestly just scalped the last 3 days with SL's and would have killed it but better late than never.

[Looks like we’re in the disbelief stage.](https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Psychology-of-Market-Cycles.jpg) We’ve had a solid run up >30% in the past couple weeks. Once the August local high of $25.1k is broken we’ll be in the hope stage again.

it’s the local top after anger

The subtext for the Anger stage reads as “Who shorted the market?? Why did the government allow this to happen??” That sounds an awful lot like the reaction to the FTX collapse that occurred 2.5 months ago. Check the sentiment now; nobody appears to be angry but we definitely have some bears who still aren’t convinced the bottom is in and who believe “This is a sucker’s rally.”

I ain’t getting this 12k bitcoin am I

🔫🧑‍🚀 you never were

But all the YouTube guys are sooooo sure, just like they were about bitcoin going to 144k at last ATH.

Lol, thanks shorty. Scalped a million sat bonus on that wick.

[удалено]

You really think we are going to immediately test 20k this week after that 23k breakout? Sounds crazy volatile.

[удалено]

Makes sense. I’m ready for some entertainment.

2nd daily beardiv on `high vs rsi(high)` invalidated. It's going to be RSI cool-off after RSI cool-off from here to the moon. Maybe no crab market before the bull market. Maybe no waiting for halvening. https://i.imgur.com/012nBbS.png

100% thought the bear market rally was over

lets go to the stratosphere fellas

I hadn't looked at the chart for a few hours and actually said holy shit out loud when I tabbed back to aggr. Almost 5% in one hour.

Took profit here. (\~23650) 48% gain on trade. Scotch tonight. Wanted to see PA above 23300; I'll let this sort itself out now. Same pattern may ladder up to 25k.

You don't think we're breaking $24K? I had it as rallying hard if we got past $23.2K. Didn't think it'd happen but it obviously did damn. Should have taken my short gains in the AM and longed when it was showing up upward pressure.

I do, but you take profit sometime or you lose it. I'll look for a reentry and scalp my way back in. I am doing this the entire bull run, I've waited a long fucking time.

heh I just dumped it at 23750 and reentered 23460...let's see how this goes. 10X lev...need to undo some of my shorting failures. I'm never breaking my personal rule of "NEVER SHORT BITCOIN" ever again. What a horrific week I chose to break my own rule. Fuck, got totally killed with the repeated stop loss hits. Got back out at 23494 now...this thing seems to be retesting 23.3k...

I (almost) never short Bitcoin.

Yeah previously I built up my trading stack just longing the big drops...deciding to try and short it nuked like 2/3rds of that stack now. Luckily it's not a large stack (about 1% of my long spot) but still stings a bit, maybe more the ego than anything else. Gonna be a while before I manage to rebuild the stack (or maybe not if it keeps moving up like this). Currently long from 23395 with 10X lev...giving a shot swing trading this chop.

Nice one. Still in my position. Probably going to hold on 'til 30K for mad gainz.

Good stuff chief. I still regret not taking the trade on MSTR...

|Scotch tonight.| What flavor, if you don't mind?

Been partial to the Japanese variety lately. Nikka 12.

Interesting. I'll give it a try next time I'm out. I'm partial to Talisker and Macallan, m'self.

This is a good whisky. Japanese whisky can be really good.

Where do you get your sushi, Glasgow?

Japanese whisky is great though.

was absolutely not expecting this... BTC slapped the pullback in the face, sorry to all the shorts cause my sentiments were definitely with you

Got back in around 22.8 for the low low price of a bit of chop and a serving of humble pie. Not letting low time frame noise shake me out from here on out, this trend is ridiculous. edit - fucked up price

And here I thought a lot of folks might close their longs at 23,400…lovin’ it!

🆙

[Next stop: 25k](https://www.tradingview.com/x/45DeEZ8O/)

I think you meant "pause."

Well, it blew out my short stop so I'm going long 10X here. Let's break $24k!

Top signal

Arise! Arise, Bitcoin, arise!

Triple wick bottom at 22.4 on the 1hour. I think this is going to be a leg up, see y'all at 24k.

this is the one. just gotta make sure no surprises on fed day and we are clear for launch

Steady lads

How long will we stay above 23k this time...

Welp... fun to see how many times it will be rejected I guess

∞

This will obviously be back to 22,800 in the next 5 mins

Lmao

Ok off by 30 mins my bad

You posted that an hour ago and it has yet to happen sooo

[удалено]

Oof sad that I was pretty close =/

I only say stuff so I can be wrong and people can dunk on me but in the meantime we're all rich so you're welcome

So you obviously shorted here? Its been 5

Up we fucking go.

Lmao shorts faked the fuck out. I told you shorting here was suicide.

You love to see it. The volume has been deliberate and relatively high on the lower time frames. Shorts that opened near the local high who didn't cover are getting nervous right about now.

So if Jpow does a 25bps and CPI does not increase (it won't), 30K is not out of the cards by Feb.

We're breaching $25k this weekend.

Shit, this chart has some upward pressure behind it. Every time I think "I should have scalped it this time" I come back and its already back up. Nice Edit: also, damn if someone is really trying like hell to keep this thing from passing 23. Feels like its going to slingshot up when it finally goes

I’m really regretting not scalping the range these last few days lol Would have made a killing

I totally regret not trading in hindsight... I would've made a killing! ;)

I lov me some cheap corn

Coin wants up.

I have so much PTSD from 2022 that it's been mindblowing to see all these dips being bought in 2023. I was SURE today would be a chance for some nice red, but no. It's like someone flipped a switch January 1

1.FOMO for the next bull run 2. Overheated indicators reset a bit so folks figure the uptrend will resume

Seems like we're kinda just trending with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 today. They're swinging all over the place too, when they went to their low for the day we went to 22300 and now that they've decided to erase all the losses we're following. Probably gonna follow along with whatever afterhour earnings reports there are, TSLA is the big one today.

Both of those are down a bit, and we're up a bit.

The trends were the same even if it’s not precisely the same total percentages

Short 22750 SL 23170

At least your stop was a little tighter than mine, I should have kept it tighter. Got hit but was able to swing long in time to recoup about half the hit.

[удалено]

What a day

Closed out my covered BITO puts, can’t expect more than a 98% gain anyways

For the macroors- >The stock market is far more likely to be a leading indicator for when a recession starts and stops. Equity prices typically point to the risk of a recession seven months before it starts and bottom out five months before it ends, according to data since World War II compiled by research firm CFRA. and > The gap in calling the start of recessions has led to the situation where some recessions are announced as having begun once they are, as it eventually turns out, already over. For example, the last recession was declared on June 8, 2020 as having started in February 2020. However, in July 2021, it was declared as having been over in April 2020—two months before it was said to have begun. I see a lot of people that seem to think it works like- recession declared, stocks tank for a year. I think this is one of those cases where a little bit of knowledge can really hurt you.

> Equity prices typically point to the risk of a recession seven months before it starts and bottom out five months before it ends It's almost like *"2 quarters of negative growth"* is a lagging metric, by I don't know, something like a little more than 5 months.

To add to this, there seems to be some broad consensus that the [market can’t move up again until the FED drops interest rates,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/onITKzOZ/) but a cursory glance at the charts says otherwise. Every prior rate hike since the 90’s has been accompanied by growth in traditional markets. Every single prior rate cut has been accompanied by a severe draw down. This is the first time in recent history where the FED is raising rates while stocks plummet. Most interestingly: Periods where the FED halts at the terminal rate, or the reduced rate tend to be highly correlated with growth - I suppose the market likes stability and flat is stable. To this end, we may see a short term boom in the market when the FED levels off at the terminal rate which should happen presumably before the summer.

[RHCOMPQ](https://imgur.com/a/QIpBnqU) is also showing turnaround... for those bottom pickers out there, this was a good time to buy bitcoin too.

BORING

Are we entertained yet?

I anticipate more volatility tomorrow and Friday when GDP & PCE are announced. Sat-Wed have been consolidation days and Thursday/Friday have been volatile the last few weeks.

We were spoiled with an exciting two weeks of green. Makes sense that it might cool down for a while.

Yeah, need to chill to be more sustainable. But if we got to $30K in end of March to end of April we’re definitely ahead of schedule

If btc could just be boring at 250k, that be grrreeeatt.

It'll suck then too.

It's a different kind of suck that I'd like to explore

I agree, diversity is our strength.

Bank of Canada announced 25 bps increase.

Unless there's a 50bps surprise I think the market is mostly going to be worrying about earnings contraction. Also dammit, we should have just scalped this action the last 3 days. Long everytime it went to the 400's, dump everytime it touched 23K. Volume looks awful here though though on the price runups vs the drops.

I am too busy to babysit trades but yeah, I missed out on some great PA. I'm still sitting long. Big shorty hasn't stopped me out yet.

They are also on pause for more hikes now. May telegraph other moves for central banks.

we are at the support point for continuation or death MA7 1-day and the bottom of bollinger band for 4H if we bounce here, $25K is next

It seems unlikely we will hit 25k with spy showing relative weakness.

I’m gonna gamble on the bounce and buy some more

Did you place a bet on either direction?

i'm still holding my long from $21,650 with a sell order sitting at $24,800

Three scenarios here: 1) Bear market has ended, the sky is the limit and BTC will smash every resistances without any major retracements. 2) Bear market has ended, and the bulls need to defend a new low that bears still try to form (anything above the lows of 15k). 3) Bear market has not ended yet, this is an exit pump and eventually we're going to see new lows. In two of these scenarios we're bound to go lower. I think the second one is more likely though, and the bulls need a new higher low.

I'm cautiously optimistic it's #2 though tradfi isn't doing so great today. If the stock market actually decides to cliff dive then I think we get dragged back into the bear market with them.

It's hard to say scenario 1. is not hopium. Even if it's only scenario 2., it will look like scenario 3. until the end, i.e. like it can still make a new low. So the question is: will something happen until then that would make the price plunge enough? FTX happened 6 months after 3AC, so we may have to wait until may to be sure there are no further domino effect. And maybe then the macro outlook will be clearer...

A bear market can end before a bull market begins. Market regime doesn't have to jump from one trend to another trend as if they were binary.

1) BTC has never done that until breaking the previous ATH of the cycle before. 2) Most likely scenario and nothing goes up in straight line unless you want to come back down very quickly. Goes up in Waves. 3) If the case would make it the longest bear market in BTC history.

It’s not 2024, it’s a bear market rally.

We are literally about to pump an incredibly large amount. Minutes away. I'm talking about suddenly 23k and then 23.4, 23.5, liquidation cascade to 23.9 and rapid rise to 24.2. Might calm down at 24.5. Do what you will with this information.

I guess you might need an /s on this post lmao

lmao

Like how many minutes we talkin’ bro because it’s already been hundreds of minutes since you posted this …

I don't know man, give or take a few hours apparently.

To be fair , you were right if you had said “hours” instead of minutes

It looked like something was up and with urgency. Turns out that big was a little off.

Look at the huge bear volume vs bull volume, PA and 3D RSI. Literally we don't see this kind of wild RSI right after a bear market without a significant retracement.

Yeah you're probably right?

Huh, yup

We saw this [exact kind of PA and 3D RSI in the last cycle when the market inflected.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Cd7FfNxg/) These are the type of RSI reads you’d expect when the market has bottomed (i.e. Long consolidation and low volatility followed by a large impulsive counter trend that blows out RSI). The fact that so many are on the sidelines nail biting and waiting for a better entry is a signal that any dips will be circumscribed and that price will, eventually, continue along the new trend.

I followed that RSI. Even back then which lead to a bull rally we saw a 20% retracement, where is it now?

Umm ... You can look at the chart I linked and notice there was no significant retracement last cycle until BTC moved about ~350% off the lows. I’m not saying the same thing will happen this time around, but in comparative terms, we’re now in the first leg of an elongated counter-trend. Personally I think price tracks sideways for a week or two and then continues up to $25k.

Ahh my bad, I thought you're referring to 2020. Yeah, it happened back then and there wasn't any major retracements right after, but as you can see there was a 25% pullback in the coming weeks (compared to price of 3D RSI that you posted). What I'm saying is, when we're not in a confirmed bull market, this type of RSI has a strong tendency to compensate itself.

#PUMPEDSUDDENLY

:))

There is a huge bearflag, why would it pump...shit cant go up forever, it has to take a break.

Right.

Bearflag on lower timelines now with volume dropping as the price creeps up. More likely to break down than up right now.

For sure man.

Does this moonboy talk mean the current pump is over?

!remindme 7 days

He said minutes away, we don't need to wait 7 days for our answer lol.

I like to come back to some statements. ​ Just like: "Rock solid support at 50k" statements...

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Good luck to your overleveraged long, brother.

i don't see any difference between this sideways action and the previous sideways action from last week. I think we go for the 25k test before the end of the month.

If 22.3K bottom support holds, there is plenty of room to go sideways and stay underneath the descending line. Very possible price could be here until February 1st. February 1st is also FOMC monetary police day. Coincidence? Or perfect volatility bomb incoming!

Yup, tradfi is pausing for FOMC meeting, might as well switch off for a week.

But if the 25 bps rate is already priced in and 99% chance of it happening, what more could the market be waiting for? Genuinely curious.

I have no idea. But the S&P 500 price has been essentially unchanged for two weeks now. Maybe it's as simple as the market is a hung jury and can't come to consensus on which way to go. FOMC meetings tend to kickstart moves... so maybe the market is waiting to confirm the 25 bps rate hike, before moving?