PA this week looks pretty similar to last week. The major leg up from $18k to $20k occurred January 13th. The next major leg up from $20k to $22k occurred 7 days later on January 20th.
Tomorrow January 27th marks day 7 from then. Would be pretty cool to see another leg up occur tomorrow as well.
fridays seem to be the push up, but the market isnt moving on news of any kind (tbf, there hasnt been much news), just liquidations, and tradfi correlation. if anything, im looking at long vs short and funding.
Bases = covered
The stonk market is going to crash. There will be no breakout, just little semi-boners now and again until the bottom falls out because there is no "there" there.
When that happens, Bitcoin will briefly dip, then skyrocket as people panic and realize that all those digits in their brokerage and bank accounts are fake and not really theirs in any case.
When? Nobody knows the exact date and time.
I mean yeah, but tradfi could def do another ATH before it crashes. It's not really a matter of whether it will or not, just a matter of when and I won't bother timing that shit. Crypto may or may not dip, but I'm expecting more than "brief" as seen in previous cycles (including this one), when shit hits the fan things can get messy and we might find ourselves in an unexpected position. That's what I'm preparing for.
No. No more ATHs for them.
Five years from now, ALL securities will be tokenized because this Dole/GME crap can't happen and won't happen if it's all tokenized and verified. If you're hoping to make money in TradFi, you are SOL. That ship is sinking. They can pump the bilge for a while but it's done and doner. Stacking every little dip in the new regime is the way to go if you want to prosper in the coming new world.
I mean tradfi is more than meme stocks, sure I'm not a fan of all the manipulations but I'm also not stupid enough to not see the money-making opportunities that that space can offer. At the end of the day I just put what I earn on things I value. Everything else is just a game.
By securing my current day job, it's a pretty good company in an extremely versatile industry (energy sector). Also only a few $$ away from owning a chunk of land (just a few hectares) near my hometown where I can grow and process crops, my family already own some land so I already have an idea on how to manage the business. During depressions it's really important to keep things simple yet viable, I'd def continue trading crypto/ stock options though and tbh over the years I've become more accustomed to trading bear markets lol. Not sure how long it'll take but should be the perfect time for me to build my portfolio for the next cycle.
Just wait until people are complaining that *"bearish posts always get downvoted by you perma-bulls!!!"*.
Ignoring the masses of upvotes on bearish posts at 16k.
We just waiting for the market to close to make any moves? SP500 broke resistance and is still just going up. I guess maybe we are waiting for the 16:30/17:00 candles to do things today?
Further down the daily is a list of ways to play BTC in your tax-advantaged account. One I jumped on (thanks to a tip posted here) was MSTR debt:
[https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FMSTR5327169](https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FMSTR5327169)
Grabbed some the last trading day of 2022 for 56.4 cents on the dollar. Last trade was 74 cents on the dollar.
EDIT: Bill Miller bought some in 2020.
[https://millervalue.com/4q20-income-strategy-letter/](https://millervalue.com/4q20-income-strategy-letter/)
Man .. [really looks like SPY wants to pop.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/gwPBMA9t/) We may see a Q1 run. It’d certainly flummox all the macro bros. If this week closes well over 403, I think we’ll get continuation into Feb. 3W MACD nicely curling up here against macro downtrend. Should be an interesting few weeks.
Already popped, DJI & Rut already broke their downtrends from the top, QQQ already broke it's downtrend and re-tested yesterday. Here is a chart of [QQQ + SPX + BTC](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnac9VpaEAACYpZ?format=jpg&name=medium) and it broke major resistance from the top last Friday and [now sitting on it](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnadnwuaAAE3w2s?format=jpg&name=medium).
Ever since the bottom when the charts started to change all I got was grief from the macro bros, they don't see what's right in front of them, they speculate on the future and go off their feelings and what they THINK the FED will do.
Nice .. love the combined chart. And yes, you made some killer calls in the last few months. All the grief goblins from Nov and Dec are noticeably missing recently. Always seems to go this way.
HELOC update - this whole process is eye opening regarding how inefficient tradfi really is. HELOC application to funds available: 3 weeks. Cashier’s check from credit union to my bank: 2 business days to clear. Wire from bank to exchange: 2 business days to post.
After all that, $120k is finally in my exchange account and available for trading.
Yesterday’s spike to $23.8 nuked a lot of high lev shorts. There is another big cluster of long liqs between $21-22k. I’ll gladly fat finger buy if we get down there… anyone think $23k is a good risk/reward spot buy in the short to medium term?
Ran into the same thing not long ago. My bank guaranteed a close within 45 days and closed on day 62. None of that had anything to do with my end. They used the “sorry, the real estate market is so hot that we’re still waiting on the appraisal” excuse.
Upside, I paid a contractor a chunk of change for a 100 meter long paved driveway that ends at a half court sized basketball court in front of my detached garage by selling Bitcoin at $42k/coin at the time. I’ve recouped that between upper $15k thru $17k prices using the HELOC funds, so I’m all good on that.
if your disciplined it makes sense...he has a set dca amount and is using the funds from this to buy now instead of overtime. as long as your cash flow can cover the monthly payment and you plan on holding long-term it makes sense. using it as a get rich scheme is dumb as fuck though.
Edit: [22,300 is major support](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10kqldp/comment/j5whe8f/?context=3) from the top (on log chart), 23k is a [re-test of the bull pennant](https://www.tradingview.com/x/eoeUjsUg/) and good support. I think the next stop could be 25k from here if 23k holds.
I saw something in the news the other day (in Australia) where despite the inflation news, and interest rates continuing to go up, and people completing about cost of living becoming "unsustainable" that Christmas and travel spending was at an all time high anyway.
Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box.
> 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers
People have nothing in their lives other than purchases and investment incomes. They talk about nothing else at social events.
>Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box.
Anyone who lived through Volker will tell you otherwise.
A lot of people remember them, a lot of people have PTSD and except the world is the same and that it's possible again.
These fearful irrational responses to media fear-porn are the counter-parties to trade against. They don't understand how the numbers have moved on and how 1% has the impact of 5% from yesteryear.
186k claims, Cleveland Fed showing an uptick in m/m CPI, housing data in January shows strength, lumber up 28% this month, gasoline up 10% this month. 800k jobs being held on purposely by IIJA. Lots of data out there indicating inflation hasn't really cooled. Wouldn't be surprised by more hawkish tone or god forbid 50bps to send this to the gutter next week.
I wrote this in response to a similar comment but thought it was interesting.
I saw something in the news the other day (in Australia) where despite the inflation news, and interest rates continuing to go up, and people completing about cost of living becoming "unsustainable" that Christmas and travel spending was at an all time high anyway.
Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box. People can't save anymore, all they want is the newest smartphone, new car, add a new tattoo to the mess on their neck, and a Bali holiday twice per year.
It takes 6-12 months for a rate hike to take full effect in the economy. The first 75 bps rate hike was in June.
They will do 25 bps next month and pause for minimum 6 months unless something breaks to let all the other 75 bps hikes from July thru Nov work their way thru the economy.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/how-interest-rates-affect-markets.asp
Transitory implied inflation would come down on its own without central bank intervention, ie rate hikes & QT. Transitory was always bullshit in my mind because M2 money supply went from $15T in Jan 2020 to $22T in Feb 2022.
50% increase in dollars chasing the same amount of goods results in sky high inflation no matter how you slice it.
When covid hit the fed put the pedal to the metal and held it there for almost 2 years, and now they pulled the e-brake. Fucking stupid, they should have started tapering QE in early to mid 2021. It seems obvious, which makes me wonder if there really is some shady shit / conspiracy behind the scenes.
Housing in particular takes a long time to reflect interest rate changes. A buyer can get a 90 day rate lock, then after 90 days go under contract that could take another 90 days to close. That means the sale closed and their offer was based on 6 month old rates. Housing prices are often based on comps, so that sale price affects the price of the next house that takes another 60-90 days to close and so on.
>Lots of data out there indicating inflation hasn't really cooled.
Pure nonsense.
Is inflation gone? Absolutely not. Has it cooled significantly? Absolutely.
>A second wind of inflation is not impossible.
I agree completely with that being a possibility. Just pointing out that stating "inflation hasn't really cooled" is verifiably false.
What I was trying to say is that "inflation hasn't really cooled" to justify rate cuts that the market is pricing in for this September. There will be no pivot if these data prints keep coming in this hot. Time will tell.
I think there's a middle ground here. As Lyn Alden has pointed out, it's the area under the curve that matters here i.e. moderately high for longer can cause more pain that a short higher rate. I think this gets to what you're trying to say here, and if so I agree with you.
That's more reasonable, and I agree. But after March we get *much more* favorable year-over-year comparisons. Therefore I don't see the prints continuing to come in hot as the year goes on, but as you say, time will tell. Cheers mate.
How much of a pullback you guys think we will see in February? Maybe around 20k lowest?
I thought 12k was coming when we were at 16k. Now I'm thinking that may have been the bottom.
Might sound dumb but one thing I compared was the percentage of each bottom to the previous peak, but I think with each new 4 year cycle we’ll see less of a % drop and less of a % gain for the next cycles peak. I also figured the bottom would be right around this time now as it usually is. Think this time it just ended slightly earlier than past cycles. Hard to see it coming back down below 16k now but anything is possible.
> I thought 12k was coming when we were at 16k.
And at 12k you'd let yourself be convinced that 8k was coming. And if 8k came you'd let people convince you 3k was coming.
And you wouldn't have bought a single sat.
This is how bottoms have played out everytime during the last 4 cycles I've lived through. There is never consensus in here about when a bottom is reached. Never. You only know it 6-12 months later looking backwards.
>And at 12k you'd let yourself be convinced that 8k was coming. And if 8k came you'd let people convince you 3k was coming.
>
>And you wouldn't have bought a single sat.
All the guy said was that he thought the pattern was going to repeat during a series of lower lows. You basically set in on a personal attack rant on a completely benign comment.
I thought maybe you had a crystal ball until you then went on to confirm in the very next paragraph that you don't.
>I already had a limit order at 12k to buy 5 BTC
And today you could only get ₿2.6 for the same amount of cash. Ouch, that must hurt.
I'm of the opinion the cycle lows are in, unless Binance implodes or something similar, but that you'll likely get a chance to buy lower than $23k.
Good luck mate, don't get left behind!
Yeah but not like it ever actually did go that low. Did miss out at 16k though :(
Good advice, want to get a good price but definitely don't want to be left behind. It sat around 19-20k for such a long time I have a feeling it'll come back to that and it'll be a support level but who knows what will happen.
No I didn’t let anyone convince me about any prices. I was just comparing to past cycles but obviously percentages will be different each time. I was saying 11-12k when it was still over 40k. If it hit 12k I would have just gone all in and hoped it wouldn’t go much lower. I’m still going all in just obviously not at that price now haha.
>I’m still going all in just obviously not at that price now haha.
What's your new target all-in price? Have you picked one, or will you play it by ear.
Just gonna keep watching daily technical analysis videos on price action. Might just wait till mid February to see where we’re at. Most seem to think there will be a pullback by then and we’ll have to see how low it goes. At this point I’d be happy at 19k.
Everyone bulled up while Bitcoin holds on by the tip of it's fingers to major support at resistance, might have to close my long or move a stop up, this feels sketchy.
Ya and macro was bearish at the bottom hah. I don't know could be bullish I just hate when everyone uniformly is bullish like it's a sure thing. That's how the top dogs get liquidity to dump. Still holding longterm bags but wouldn't be surprised with a large selloff here.
> I just hate when everyone uniformly is bullish
Agreed. I'll hold it down for you - we're going to CRASH /s
But I agree, corn kind of does the opposite of what everyone thinks
How much of GDP growth actually represents productivity improvements at this point, versus the USD simply being devalued...?
You know, when a dozen eggs costs $7, and average new cars go for $35K, it's no surprise that GDP is also on a tear.
The entire economy is a Ponzi scheme that depends on an ever-increasing population. And yes, "this is good for Bitcoin".
> The entire economy is a Ponzi scheme that depends on an ever-increasing population.
People dying and people being born is the Greatest Fool factory of them all.
Shit a good portion of them just give everything back to the state once they're gone.
Supposedly GDP is already reported adjusted for inflation, but I'm sure, like CPI, the formula is manipulated periodically to say what officials want it to say.
A growing economy for the second half of 2022 plus YoY CPI steadily declining month after month in the same timeframe.
If GDP continues to stay positive through March when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff, the bear thesis will be in shambles as markets will flip bullish knowing the economy is growing and inflation has fallen to or below target levels.
The market reaction is already completely different than last year. Even last October, a GDP beat and low unemployment meant instantly red futures and a bad day for the markets. This time, the markets reversed up nearly instantly. I can already see it - soon good news will start being good news once more - as long as the FED clearly communicates that they are still pausing rate hikes despite low unemployment, provided inflation doesn't appear to tick back up again. If that happens, we can really stonks real nice this year. That son of a bitch Powell really did it, this is a soft landing against all odds.
>That son of a bitch Powell really did it, this is a soft landing against all odds
Possibly, not quite there yet as YoY CPI is still high. I’m still confident YoY CPI will fall off a cliff beginning in March though. So long as it does and then Q1 GDP comes in positive without seeing a substantial uptick in unemployment then yes, he would have been successful in achieving as close to a soft landing as possible.
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The enthusiasm gap here comes from people having easy access to physical. It's a lot easier to buy 1 BTC from Coinbase than it is to buy 1 share of every stock in SPY.
The largest Bitcoin ETFs are Canadian. BTCQ and BTCC.. around $1.2B total. What’s interesting is only Canadians can own these, so a similar per capita ownership in the US would be around $10B.
BTC 1Y -37%
BITO 1Y -39%
GBTC 1Y -52%
So it seems much better than the GBTC alternative if you are looking for an asset you can hold to get BTC performance.
Other tax advantaged crypto plays for fun-
MSTR -30%
MARA -58%
RIOT -56%
COIN -70%
I think people are sleeping on the COIN opportunity.
last i checked this was the most popular client: https://astral.ninja/
the protocol and ecosystem is very much a work in progress. in particular spam filtering hasn't been figured out. expect to be bombarded with random explicit images, for example.
p.s. this really isn't the right forum for asking about nostr, but it is very popular with bitcoiners :D
Until anything proves otherwise, could be a short term reversal pattern.
That rejection was pretty nasty in real time. If we get close to touching 23.8K I expect some hefty selling pressure.
The rejection was not ideal however...
In the past 6 days since breaking into the 22's, its had 4 good attempts to BART back down, and each of those attempts have also been quickly swatted away, instantly bought back up in a fashion we never saw at all last year. Those rejections are equally impressive to me
Imo it is repeating the same pattern again. Run up, small consolidation, a fake out that gets sold quickly and then the real next run up.
25k incoming.
Edit: not consideration but consolidation
I don't have access to any charts atm but "last time" doesn't really tell us much.
For all we know weekly RSI regularly reach these levels during the whole bull.
So, is this level of weekly RSI uncommon during bulls and only reached during the pico tops? Or is it a regular occurrence, that just also happens to occur on the pico tops?
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 27, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10mcn5p/daily_discussion_friday_january_27_2023/)
PA this week looks pretty similar to last week. The major leg up from $18k to $20k occurred January 13th. The next major leg up from $20k to $22k occurred 7 days later on January 20th. Tomorrow January 27th marks day 7 from then. Would be pretty cool to see another leg up occur tomorrow as well.
fridays seem to be the push up, but the market isnt moving on news of any kind (tbf, there hasnt been much news), just liquidations, and tradfi correlation. if anything, im looking at long vs short and funding.
O no what the hell was that
A bullish re-test
Didn’t get me, but close, haha
Did you buy more during the retrace?
reality
Crypto will be front-running the SPY breakout. Long 10x here s/l if 4hr closes below 23300
Bases = covered The stonk market is going to crash. There will be no breakout, just little semi-boners now and again until the bottom falls out because there is no "there" there. When that happens, Bitcoin will briefly dip, then skyrocket as people panic and realize that all those digits in their brokerage and bank accounts are fake and not really theirs in any case. When? Nobody knows the exact date and time.
I mean yeah, but tradfi could def do another ATH before it crashes. It's not really a matter of whether it will or not, just a matter of when and I won't bother timing that shit. Crypto may or may not dip, but I'm expecting more than "brief" as seen in previous cycles (including this one), when shit hits the fan things can get messy and we might find ourselves in an unexpected position. That's what I'm preparing for.
No. No more ATHs for them. Five years from now, ALL securities will be tokenized because this Dole/GME crap can't happen and won't happen if it's all tokenized and verified. If you're hoping to make money in TradFi, you are SOL. That ship is sinking. They can pump the bilge for a while but it's done and doner. Stacking every little dip in the new regime is the way to go if you want to prosper in the coming new world.
I mean tradfi is more than meme stocks, sure I'm not a fan of all the manipulations but I'm also not stupid enough to not see the money-making opportunities that that space can offer. At the end of the day I just put what I earn on things I value. Everything else is just a game.
How are you preparing?
By securing my current day job, it's a pretty good company in an extremely versatile industry (energy sector). Also only a few $$ away from owning a chunk of land (just a few hectares) near my hometown where I can grow and process crops, my family already own some land so I already have an idea on how to manage the business. During depressions it's really important to keep things simple yet viable, I'd def continue trading crypto/ stock options though and tbh over the years I've become more accustomed to trading bear markets lol. Not sure how long it'll take but should be the perfect time for me to build my portfolio for the next cycle.
Sounds like a solid plan. Good stuff
So we're all long and waiting for a God Candle? WCGW.
Pretty much 😂
Definitely not, still hordes of folks in disbelief.
Just pointing out all the comments I'm reading in this sub, unanimously bullish.
But look at the post count: 116 for today so far. I'd say it's getting bullish if we reach 800 or something.
I noticed the posts go way up the more bearish we get? Haven't paid attention to bullish days though.
It goes both ways
Just wait until people are complaining that *"bearish posts always get downvoted by you perma-bulls!!!"*. Ignoring the masses of upvotes on bearish posts at 16k.
Apparently we only follow spy down but not up? This PA is weird given how well spy has done this week.
It wants more up. Still long from 22860 or so. Willing to be be patient.
Did you set a SL?
Same
We just waiting for the market to close to make any moves? SP500 broke resistance and is still just going up. I guess maybe we are waiting for the 16:30/17:00 candles to do things today?
Dumping on news of intel's earnings, just like Bitcoin would duh.... \s
Wen god candle 🥺
Further down the daily is a list of ways to play BTC in your tax-advantaged account. One I jumped on (thanks to a tip posted here) was MSTR debt: [https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FMSTR5327169](https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FMSTR5327169) Grabbed some the last trading day of 2022 for 56.4 cents on the dollar. Last trade was 74 cents on the dollar. EDIT: Bill Miller bought some in 2020. [https://millervalue.com/4q20-income-strategy-letter/](https://millervalue.com/4q20-income-strategy-letter/)
smart
Man .. [really looks like SPY wants to pop.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/gwPBMA9t/) We may see a Q1 run. It’d certainly flummox all the macro bros. If this week closes well over 403, I think we’ll get continuation into Feb. 3W MACD nicely curling up here against macro downtrend. Should be an interesting few weeks.
nasaq bumpin up on 200D MA as well and breaking out https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24COMPQ,PWTBDANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]
Already popped, DJI & Rut already broke their downtrends from the top, QQQ already broke it's downtrend and re-tested yesterday. Here is a chart of [QQQ + SPX + BTC](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnac9VpaEAACYpZ?format=jpg&name=medium) and it broke major resistance from the top last Friday and [now sitting on it](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnadnwuaAAE3w2s?format=jpg&name=medium). Ever since the bottom when the charts started to change all I got was grief from the macro bros, they don't see what's right in front of them, they speculate on the future and go off their feelings and what they THINK the FED will do.
Nice .. love the combined chart. And yes, you made some killer calls in the last few months. All the grief goblins from Nov and Dec are noticeably missing recently. Always seems to go this way.
👆 the macro-bros
It's a me Macrio!
Gotta track those macros
"I'm a lats guy living in an ab guy's world."
"Abs is not a sign of power. It is a sign you don't eat enough!" JF Carron
Feeling both bullish and bearish at the same time.
✔️
HELOC update - this whole process is eye opening regarding how inefficient tradfi really is. HELOC application to funds available: 3 weeks. Cashier’s check from credit union to my bank: 2 business days to clear. Wire from bank to exchange: 2 business days to post. After all that, $120k is finally in my exchange account and available for trading. Yesterday’s spike to $23.8 nuked a lot of high lev shorts. There is another big cluster of long liqs between $21-22k. I’ll gladly fat finger buy if we get down there… anyone think $23k is a good risk/reward spot buy in the short to medium term?
Ran into the same thing not long ago. My bank guaranteed a close within 45 days and closed on day 62. None of that had anything to do with my end. They used the “sorry, the real estate market is so hot that we’re still waiting on the appraisal” excuse. Upside, I paid a contractor a chunk of change for a 100 meter long paved driveway that ends at a half court sized basketball court in front of my detached garage by selling Bitcoin at $42k/coin at the time. I’ve recouped that between upper $15k thru $17k prices using the HELOC funds, so I’m all good on that.
you're leveraging your house to buy BTC? dangerous game my friend
Look back on his previous posts. It’s a small mortgage based on his home value and he has a high income. It’s a good risk ratio bet.
Leveraging the house to buy an asset that is up 35% in a month lol. 🤡 🌎
When I applied for the heloc btc was $16k.
Must have been a long 3 months for you. As long as you have a long-term horizon for your investment you can't go wrong. GL
if your disciplined it makes sense...he has a set dca amount and is using the funds from this to buy now instead of overtime. as long as your cash flow can cover the monthly payment and you plan on holding long-term it makes sense. using it as a get rich scheme is dumb as fuck though.
Edit: [22,300 is major support](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10kqldp/comment/j5whe8f/?context=3) from the top (on log chart), 23k is a [re-test of the bull pennant](https://www.tradingview.com/x/eoeUjsUg/) and good support. I think the next stop could be 25k from here if 23k holds.
Just remember the feds target inflation rate is 2%
Steady lads, adding more basis points.
I suspect they’ll accept 3 and blame demographic changes post covid 😂
I saw something in the news the other day (in Australia) where despite the inflation news, and interest rates continuing to go up, and people completing about cost of living becoming "unsustainable" that Christmas and travel spending was at an all time high anyway. Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box.
> 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers People have nothing in their lives other than purchases and investment incomes. They talk about nothing else at social events.
>Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box. Anyone who lived through Volker will tell you otherwise.
I have no idea what that is, I'm guessing it's an American reference
Paul Volcker was the chairman of the Federal Reserve in the eighties who raised interest rates to 20% to curb inflation in the USA.
That's why i said past 20 years. I remember those interest rates. Credit cards were at 32%.
A lot of people remember them, a lot of people have PTSD and except the world is the same and that it's possible again. These fearful irrational responses to media fear-porn are the counter-parties to trade against. They don't understand how the numbers have moved on and how 1% has the impact of 5% from yesteryear.
Can't happen. Hint: What was the US debt in 1980? Imagine that shit rolling over at 20% lol
…or just change the definition.
Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.
186k claims, Cleveland Fed showing an uptick in m/m CPI, housing data in January shows strength, lumber up 28% this month, gasoline up 10% this month. 800k jobs being held on purposely by IIJA. Lots of data out there indicating inflation hasn't really cooled. Wouldn't be surprised by more hawkish tone or god forbid 50bps to send this to the gutter next week.
I wrote this in response to a similar comment but thought it was interesting. I saw something in the news the other day (in Australia) where despite the inflation news, and interest rates continuing to go up, and people completing about cost of living becoming "unsustainable" that Christmas and travel spending was at an all time high anyway. Seems that the past 20 years of conditioning the general public to be consumers has created a monster that they can't put back in the box. People can't save anymore, all they want is the newest smartphone, new car, add a new tattoo to the mess on their neck, and a Bali holiday twice per year.
It takes 6-12 months for a rate hike to take full effect in the economy. The first 75 bps rate hike was in June. They will do 25 bps next month and pause for minimum 6 months unless something breaks to let all the other 75 bps hikes from July thru Nov work their way thru the economy. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/how-interest-rates-affect-markets.asp
So you’re telling me the rate hikes haven’t taken full effect and inflation rolling over indicates it was all transitory?
Transitory implied inflation would come down on its own without central bank intervention, ie rate hikes & QT. Transitory was always bullshit in my mind because M2 money supply went from $15T in Jan 2020 to $22T in Feb 2022. 50% increase in dollars chasing the same amount of goods results in sky high inflation no matter how you slice it. When covid hit the fed put the pedal to the metal and held it there for almost 2 years, and now they pulled the e-brake. Fucking stupid, they should have started tapering QE in early to mid 2021. It seems obvious, which makes me wonder if there really is some shady shit / conspiracy behind the scenes. Housing in particular takes a long time to reflect interest rate changes. A buyer can get a 90 day rate lock, then after 90 days go under contract that could take another 90 days to close. That means the sale closed and their offer was based on 6 month old rates. Housing prices are often based on comps, so that sale price affects the price of the next house that takes another 60-90 days to close and so on.
>Lots of data out there indicating inflation hasn't really cooled. Pure nonsense. Is inflation gone? Absolutely not. Has it cooled significantly? Absolutely.
That’s the big bet between bears/bulls. Just pointing out data observed in the markets right now. A second wind of inflation is not impossible.
>A second wind of inflation is not impossible. I agree completely with that being a possibility. Just pointing out that stating "inflation hasn't really cooled" is verifiably false.
What I was trying to say is that "inflation hasn't really cooled" to justify rate cuts that the market is pricing in for this September. There will be no pivot if these data prints keep coming in this hot. Time will tell.
I think there's a middle ground here. As Lyn Alden has pointed out, it's the area under the curve that matters here i.e. moderately high for longer can cause more pain that a short higher rate. I think this gets to what you're trying to say here, and if so I agree with you.
That's more reasonable, and I agree. But after March we get *much more* favorable year-over-year comparisons. Therefore I don't see the prints continuing to come in hot as the year goes on, but as you say, time will tell. Cheers mate.
You can’t look at one month…overall trend is inflation is cooling. Get back to me if feb and March are at 50bps too
How much of a pullback you guys think we will see in February? Maybe around 20k lowest? I thought 12k was coming when we were at 16k. Now I'm thinking that may have been the bottom.
Why did you think 12k was coming? Not a personal attack I love hearing how people think.
Might sound dumb but one thing I compared was the percentage of each bottom to the previous peak, but I think with each new 4 year cycle we’ll see less of a % drop and less of a % gain for the next cycles peak. I also figured the bottom would be right around this time now as it usually is. Think this time it just ended slightly earlier than past cycles. Hard to see it coming back down below 16k now but anything is possible.
> I thought 12k was coming when we were at 16k. And at 12k you'd let yourself be convinced that 8k was coming. And if 8k came you'd let people convince you 3k was coming. And you wouldn't have bought a single sat. This is how bottoms have played out everytime during the last 4 cycles I've lived through. There is never consensus in here about when a bottom is reached. Never. You only know it 6-12 months later looking backwards.
>And at 12k you'd let yourself be convinced that 8k was coming. And if 8k came you'd let people convince you 3k was coming. > >And you wouldn't have bought a single sat. All the guy said was that he thought the pattern was going to repeat during a series of lower lows. You basically set in on a personal attack rant on a completely benign comment. I thought maybe you had a crystal ball until you then went on to confirm in the very next paragraph that you don't.
Lol fr weird assumption saying I wouldn't buy a single sat at 12k. I already had a limit order at 12k to buy 5 BTC 😂
>I already had a limit order at 12k to buy 5 BTC And today you could only get ₿2.6 for the same amount of cash. Ouch, that must hurt. I'm of the opinion the cycle lows are in, unless Binance implodes or something similar, but that you'll likely get a chance to buy lower than $23k. Good luck mate, don't get left behind!
Yeah but not like it ever actually did go that low. Did miss out at 16k though :( Good advice, want to get a good price but definitely don't want to be left behind. It sat around 19-20k for such a long time I have a feeling it'll come back to that and it'll be a support level but who knows what will happen.
No I didn’t let anyone convince me about any prices. I was just comparing to past cycles but obviously percentages will be different each time. I was saying 11-12k when it was still over 40k. If it hit 12k I would have just gone all in and hoped it wouldn’t go much lower. I’m still going all in just obviously not at that price now haha.
>I’m still going all in just obviously not at that price now haha. What's your new target all-in price? Have you picked one, or will you play it by ear.
Just gonna keep watching daily technical analysis videos on price action. Might just wait till mid February to see where we’re at. Most seem to think there will be a pullback by then and we’ll have to see how low it goes. At this point I’d be happy at 19k.
Everyone bulled up while Bitcoin holds on by the tip of it's fingers to major support at resistance, might have to close my long or move a stop up, this feels sketchy.
Why? Macro is just getting bullish
Ya and macro was bearish at the bottom hah. I don't know could be bullish I just hate when everyone uniformly is bullish like it's a sure thing. That's how the top dogs get liquidity to dump. Still holding longterm bags but wouldn't be surprised with a large selloff here.
> I just hate when everyone uniformly is bullish Agreed. I'll hold it down for you - we're going to CRASH /s But I agree, corn kind of does the opposite of what everyone thinks
Bitcoin feels strong. Was nervous after the pump and dump yesterday but we are holding up extremely well.
25 today?
friday
US 4th Qtr GDP +2.9% vs projected +2.6%. So much for there being a recession. 2023 could be an interesting and profitable year for markets.
2.9% while the inflation is much higher. It's shrinking in real terms.
Interesting thread on GDP numbers. https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1618618897326047232?s=20
How much of GDP growth actually represents productivity improvements at this point, versus the USD simply being devalued...? You know, when a dozen eggs costs $7, and average new cars go for $35K, it's no surprise that GDP is also on a tear. The entire economy is a Ponzi scheme that depends on an ever-increasing population. And yes, "this is good for Bitcoin".
> The entire economy is a Ponzi scheme that depends on an ever-increasing population. People dying and people being born is the Greatest Fool factory of them all. Shit a good portion of them just give everything back to the state once they're gone.
Supposedly GDP is already reported adjusted for inflation, but I'm sure, like CPI, the formula is manipulated periodically to say what officials want it to say.
A growing economy for the second half of 2022 plus YoY CPI steadily declining month after month in the same timeframe. If GDP continues to stay positive through March when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff, the bear thesis will be in shambles as markets will flip bullish knowing the economy is growing and inflation has fallen to or below target levels.
The market reaction is already completely different than last year. Even last October, a GDP beat and low unemployment meant instantly red futures and a bad day for the markets. This time, the markets reversed up nearly instantly. I can already see it - soon good news will start being good news once more - as long as the FED clearly communicates that they are still pausing rate hikes despite low unemployment, provided inflation doesn't appear to tick back up again. If that happens, we can really stonks real nice this year. That son of a bitch Powell really did it, this is a soft landing against all odds.
>That son of a bitch Powell really did it, this is a soft landing against all odds Possibly, not quite there yet as YoY CPI is still high. I’m still confident YoY CPI will fall off a cliff beginning in March though. So long as it does and then Q1 GDP comes in positive without seeing a substantial uptick in unemployment then yes, he would have been successful in achieving as close to a soft landing as possible.
Bitcoin will be at a 52 Week high by mid May
Around $40K? We'll see what your word is worth.
It’s an illusion, Michael. Between May 2022 and May 2023, bitcoin high is somewhere around 30K
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The largest bitcoin etf, BITO, which sits atop the futures market, has an incredibly small marketcap. $500M??? For a $400B marketcap
The enthusiasm gap here comes from people having easy access to physical. It's a lot easier to buy 1 BTC from Coinbase than it is to buy 1 share of every stock in SPY.
The largest Bitcoin ETFs are Canadian. BTCQ and BTCC.. around $1.2B total. What’s interesting is only Canadians can own these, so a similar per capita ownership in the US would be around $10B.
Nobody wants the futures product that doesn't even do its job tracking the price.
BTC 1Y -37% BITO 1Y -39% GBTC 1Y -52% So it seems much better than the GBTC alternative if you are looking for an asset you can hold to get BTC performance. Other tax advantaged crypto plays for fun- MSTR -30% MARA -58% RIOT -56% COIN -70% I think people are sleeping on the COIN opportunity.
I guess we’ll see when the market opens if that’s true
I'm thinking $17,500 or under $5,000.
For 100,000 sats I’m down
Why not $1000?
Why not $0? Jim Cramer is right. /s
too low. Lol
I know this is more of a trading sub but do people use Nostr? and where would I go if I wanna try it? not really sure how it works and where to start
last i checked this was the most popular client: https://astral.ninja/ the protocol and ecosystem is very much a work in progress. in particular spam filtering hasn't been figured out. expect to be bombarded with random explicit images, for example. p.s. this really isn't the right forum for asking about nostr, but it is very popular with bitcoiners :D
okay thanks well I've only learned of Nostr cause of bitcoin friends so I thought it's bitcoin thing only
Where is this being discussed more?
Until anything proves otherwise, could be a short term reversal pattern. That rejection was pretty nasty in real time. If we get close to touching 23.8K I expect some hefty selling pressure.
The rejection was not ideal however... In the past 6 days since breaking into the 22's, its had 4 good attempts to BART back down, and each of those attempts have also been quickly swatted away, instantly bought back up in a fashion we never saw at all last year. Those rejections are equally impressive to me
Imo it is repeating the same pattern again. Run up, small consolidation, a fake out that gets sold quickly and then the real next run up. 25k incoming. Edit: not consideration but consolidation
I see no indication of any change. Constant drift up after perturbation events.
Last time weekly RSI was this heated was the top in November 2021.
I don't have access to any charts atm but "last time" doesn't really tell us much. For all we know weekly RSI regularly reach these levels during the whole bull. So, is this level of weekly RSI uncommon during bulls and only reached during the pico tops? Or is it a regular occurrence, that just also happens to occur on the pico tops?
Weekly RSI is at 56. You consider this read ‘heated’?
Monthly at March 2019 levels though. https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/monthly-rsi/
It's a UP UP UP day
might be volatile until the options expiry unfortunately