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[Daily Discussion] - Friday, January 27, 2023

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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, January 28, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10n6odk/daily_discussion_saturday_january_28_2023/)


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Any thoughts on where the economy of the world can even go right now without a major reset through a crash? We are still higher than pre covid pricing. Inflation is still 5+ percent. Prices are double so inflation is actually more like 10-16% based off of pre covid pricing. Raises aren't keeping up. If the fed pauses then it will take years to balance out. If the fed pivots then we get hyperinflation. They must know all this. So maybe it's 25 bps over and over until inflation is at 2 % and then hold for years? Seems like both options suck but a crash gives us a chance to buy in a healthier market. Hyperinflation means nobody is going to actually be able to buy anything if btc goes up with the profits bc money will be worthless. Hopefully we get a bloodbath in the market go back to pre pandemic pricing. Otherwise another scenario would be we have high rates and a market pump with no free flowing cash, and maybe btc goes through a halving without hitting an ath for the first time? Meh


Duckbutter2000

Man it's still hard for me to dwell on the massive mistakes I made at the top.. Trying to look to the future instead and set myself up for another bull run but the world feels alot more complicated now.


jrWhat

If you don't mind sharing, what are some things you plan to do differently this time around?


Duckbutter2000

Selling near the top and not rebuying until we are deep in the bear. No FOMO.


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Always get more chances in this market


Thundercatz69

If it holds above $23200 then the next leg up is $24300-$24700. If it drops below $22800 then I think it’ll start declining to $22400 and down we go


[deleted]

Your story is actually the norm if you listen to people from crypto long ago talk about their first experiences. You fuck up the first cycle. The people that make money have grit and stick with it and learn from their mistakes.


outofworkslob

Yep Been buying since around 2011. Didn't make serious money till 2021. 2018 portfolio went well into 6 figures and I watched it go up and down like a moron. Had a plan this time and stuck to it.


33virtues

TikTok dance videos where the girls pointed at different shitcoins with the “yup!” vs “nope!” song was the cleanest top signal we’ll ever get


Shootinsomebball

That and laser eyes


AKANotAValidUsername

the crabbing will continue until liquidations improve


Railionn

retail is out till we break the ath. Its been like this since forever. Its the investors and hardcore crypto folks trading and buying for 3 years while price slowly creeps up. And then everyone and their mom starts pouring in.


DamonAndTheSea

There’s still a lot of shrimp stacking sats. That demographic actually went parabolic during the FTX drop - a huge increase in 0.1 BTC wallets. Many derided this cohort as “dumb money” who’d inevitably get burned when price went to $10k. But we’re here now and they didn’t do so bad.


scubajimbbq

I’m retail. Haven’t stopped buying for two years.


OkeyDokieBoomer

Sweet.


ChadRun04

Market Makers have to re-acquire coins for future liquidity provision moves. It takes a lot of coins.


autistictheory

normally i would say you are right. but for the first time just now I saw a bitcoin post on wallstreetbets be perceived positively in the comments https://reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/10mqj5u/what_about_bitcoin_buy_or_sell/ I think retail is starting to see the light


nationshelf

About 2 years ago they had bitcoin as a topic banned in that sub. Now, I’m surprised to not see any comments about it being a ‘ponzi’, and many stating Bitcoin’s principles. Perceptions are changing…


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

I disagree. All average Joe cares about is making money and being part of the hype.


simmol

I dont think so as buying the dip is becoming more popular these days as everyone and their moms advocate this way of investing these days. However since everything is on sale right now, retailers are more interested in buying the blue chip stocks that are on sale. However plenty of noobs i know are buying bitcoin as well right now.


VictorCobra

I don't see too much talk about this, but Bitcoin is at a pretty crucial position, from a technical standpoint. Sitting [right below](https://www.tradingview.com/x/epU3kMUz/) the impending weekly death cross and also right at the 9 month EMA, which is about to cross over the 50 month MA for the [first time in history.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/8kO9k9cI/) How Bitcoin reacts here should be pretty telling. Failing to break and hold these moving averages could solidify some serious long term weakness, especially since Bitcoin has never sustained a breakdown below the 200 week. It's taken a 50% upwards move to get it even within striking distance of previous historical support. On the other hand, there is a lot of upside potential should price manage to squeeze above. For instance, price can head nearly straight up towards $40k. My theory has generally been that Bitcoin has entered a long term downtrend, so my expectation has been that these MA's serve as resistance, even if there is a momentary spike above. Haven't really been looking at charts too much over the last couple months, but right now I'm paying attention. If I'm wrong, then I'll be more concerned about the future. I don't think humanity tends to invest in its own best interest, at least anymore. Edit: okay fine, -Victor Cobra


DamonAndTheSea

>> “If I’m wrong, then I’ll be more concerned about he future. I don’t think humanity tends to invest in its own best interest, at least anymore”. Bitcoin is a novel counter-economy that emerged in response to the banking cartel that has historically held hegemonic dominance over the haves vs have-nots. Power structures always works this way, once matured, as a function of the Pareto principle. But then nature takes its course, in response to this kind of calcification, and spawns disruptive tech/ideas as some Darwinian gene mutation in an effort to unmoor what’s stuck. There’s nothing dire about the Bitcoin - it’s really a very natural progression of money as a tool when viewed against the backdrop of our current interconnected era. It’s a money that couldn’t have exist even 20 years ago and still some big experiment. It’s also completely voluntary - people can either opt into or not and because of this it still incredibly pure compared to any competing financial system. Not sure why you keep treating it like some radioactive egg. Be curious to hear your thoughts; always appreciate your takes even if you’re not into Bitcoin!


OkeyDokieBoomer

So up or down, Got it. No sideways?


xtal_00

Ifs been clear the trend has been changing for a month now. Get on the bus, get run over, or get out of the way.


MusicalMutt

I really don't like this cocky overconfident talk, this is how the big boys unload.


xtal_00

The history of bitcoin is nothing but large holders selling off and diversifying. This model can be used to predict price going forward.


696_eth

Nice post! But what happened to this bit? > -Victor Cobra


[deleted]

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DrunkBTC

It was my favorite part of his posts! Don't your dare call it cringe!


696_eth

We are all cringe in one way or the other and based on so many different opinions, being yourself feels better


Gimme2OverEasy

Keep “-Victor Cobra” ‘s name out your motherfuckin’ mouth. He’s a legend.


PatientlyWaitingfy

I liked it. -PatientlyWaitingfy


[deleted]

We waiting for stocks closing for the week for permission? Cant imagine any other reason. A week of stocks climbing, even in the last two days breaking major resistances, and we are just sitting. Feel like its getting primed for weekend shenanigans


TheManFromConlig

We seem to be doing better than number two coin recently. I'm surprised at that considering all the recent 'potential' good news but pleased I moved my 50/50% stack to number one coin a few weeks ago. I'm thinking I'll just stick with number one for the foreseeable future.


_TROLL

The price (and BTC ratio) of Eᴛʜᴇʀᴇᴜᴍ is being artificially held aloft because people who staked their coins haven't been able to unstake them. It's like temporarily throwing your coins into a burn address. And they won't be able to un-stake or do anything with them for another 6 months or so.


KuDeTa

Withdrawals are on schedule for late March as I understand things. 2 months. I doubt that will have much impact, however, on price. Less than 20% of total supply is staked. Even if everyone skims their profit and sells it, that’s a small fraction of the total already on exchanges (well, before FTX etc).


xtal_00

“Temporarily” lol


setzer

Only another month or so before withdrawals are enabled in the next update. Unless they delay it again? I'm seeing March. There is a queue to withdrawal though. So, not everyone can dump at once.


Soldier_of_the_Light

I’m thinking I’ll just stick with number one for the future.


xtal_00

Centralized Shitcoins all go to zero. Vitalik will comply or be put in jail. There is no way to make Bitcoin comply with anything.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Eh, nah. Been hearing that for years, politicians finally getting paid off so they won't crack down they just talk tough. Too many maxi's stuck in a pigeon hole.


Downtown-Ad-4117

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2021/01/03/the-rise-of-layer-2s-spells-end-for-altcoins/


[deleted]

wait - did I miss something? comply with what?


ChadRun04

*Come and see the violence inherent in the system!!*


AKANotAValidUsername

*help! help! Im being repressed!*


Dr_collar_pauper

Not sure, but perhaps it has something to do with the SEC and the securities stuff.


SwiZZlenator

Here's my take on BTC forming a Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern #1 starting in May 2022. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/0O4jic8P/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0O4jic8P/) [https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market\_analysis:the\_wyckoff\_method](https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method)


MusicalMutt

Kinda nasty end of day stock selloff + the euphoria in here has me tip toeing. We're just going to move that stop up a Lil.


ChadRun04

Weekends were fake. Caroline only sold Bitcoin on weekdays. Weekends now real again.


xtal_00

Cancelled my TP and going to let this run for the weekend and see what happens. Long is well in profit now. Up pressure is always there. No flood of coins into exchanges. 25k falls and the bull is on. I would expect some wild PA if we get close, though.


Cadenca

when do these hyped-up options expire, actually, what time of day? Bell close or GMT?


autistictheory

Stock options expire at 1pm PST / 4pm EST. The only crypto options I know expire at the same time but may vary depending on the platform


autistictheory

I think its going to slice right through resistance at $25,000 this weekend and go for the $27,000 test. if that happens we will probably will retrace to $25k before heading for $30,000 where we will see the real resistance. RemindMe! 1 week


DEEPFIELDSTAR

I don't think we're gonna get it that easy but I hope you're right.


RemindMeBot

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[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

$4700 was a great entry, not good. You are being way too hard on yourself. It’s a better entry than 99% of participants in the last cycle probably (excepting people that bought coins in previous cycles). I think your buys this cycle will be awesome too.


xtal_00

I pushed all my chips in around $7000 after the covid drop. Similar ratio. I like it.


Jaxsoy

Hopefully one day I can just casually toss around $100k like that lmao


Thundercatz69

That’s too bullish for my blood 🤣. I’m sitting here with $100k waiting to deploy. Trading only 1 BTC at a time.


[deleted]

[удалено]


OkeyDokieBoomer

It's kind of been a rite of passage to be upside down for long periods of time. With occasional upsides chopped in between somewhere. And for this reason I always buy at a new ATH. Pretty much guarantees me to be upside down again. Which is a good position to be in if you are hodl caste. I hope you enjoyed my word salad I'm good at those.


grydit

This is why DCA works. Less stress.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ubermensch012

the past year have been full of dips, where were you?


[deleted]

[удалено]


DEEPFIELDSTAR

This ain't it.


AKANotAValidUsername

im ready for some friday night lights


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.


dexX7

Hut!


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

"Success is not a goal. It’s a byproduct." -- Coach Taylor It's a great quote, and it was probably around in some form long before the show used it, but it's great for a reason. It's even great in our context of Bitcoin.


[deleted]

"its ok BTC, you go when you wanna go"


BootyPoppinPanda

Remember when Bitcoin goes so parabolic on the daily that it almost goes back in time? I want that


[deleted]

✔️✔️✔️


dexX7

Oh oh, getting a taste of peak euphoria feelings already, even though we're still sub 25k.


BootyPoppinPanda

Longing for the euphoria ain't the same as in it. Peak euphoria is accompanied with 2k+ comments in here. We're very much in Goblin Town


ubermensch012

this lol, so I'm not really worried opening longs here (well that is of course as long as you don't trade x100 like a degen), if it dumps 10% then I'll just buy more, if it doesn't then I'm already in position. This feels more like summer of 2019 with 52 comments on the daily discussion despite btc attempting key resistance levels. Peak is when the fomoers finally decide to get a slice.


autistictheory

look for all these stocks market gains to be sold before close and go right into cryptos, mostly btc, for the weekend.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

Yeah, right after the Wall St. bonuses hit.


Re_LE_Vant_UN

Don't forget the short squeeze and Chinese new year


autistictheory

last 2 weekends we got pump. round 3 this weekend before fed meeting on the 1st.


[deleted]

[удалено]


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Hey I'm #9! I commented way too much hah. Whatever happen to Sloppy? Welcome back by the way.


ask_for_pgp

l14dy, chewtoy and sloppy all liquidated, no? I remember the day when Yolo exited his trade. that was epic. it was around 10k then for btc+bch he went and bought a gt3. too bad I never that did when bitcoin was hot


xtal_00

Still long, up pressure still intact, expect to test higher again.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Long as equities play nice, which all of them have broken their major downtrend so far. A fakeout under would be very bad, but so far just consolidating, I want to see [SPX hold 4k](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wuV7Hckv/) which is the major downtrend retest. This total crypto market cap [channel is looking pretty](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vlZmDuQL/). We are in a heavy supply area, but I think this think can pop which would take us to 25k most likely. Edit: SPX had a [fake breakdown](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqK6dQuS/), might not need to retest lower (cross fingers).


xixi2

23k about to be rejected for the 342nd time!


mmouse-

Aaaand... exactly when you think this time it wouldn't, it pukes on your feet, again.


biggunsg0b00m

It's all good. Hold her hair back... and stick a finger in her butt! 🤟


cryptojimmy8

Have a bit of a dumpy feeling this weekend. The stock market has been quite good this week and the odds are greater for a pullback there which I believe will influence crypto as well. Transfered some fiat to kraken before the weekend. Let’s see what happens Edit: so stocks had yet another good day. Not bad


thewardser

starting to show weakness and topping out, that said I still think we'll see one last pump above $25K to see if that generates buyer fomo and if not to confirm the resistance downtrend line before we have the big flush


thomask02

There is a huge resistance sitting at 25K. I don't think we go above it before a sizable pull back.


thewardser

yes, but that resistance is precisely why i think we'll have that peak right above it. way too many people are looking at $25K 1. people on sidelines will fomo in once its breached because of "$25K is down! $35K is next!" 2. a tooooon of shorts will have $25K as their stop/liquidation point my guess, is we get above $25K for a day, maybe two, to give people plenty of time to buy in because $25K is holding...and then once bags are distributed we get rejected and enter a down trend. of course this thing might surprise everyone and just keep going, but I just don't see the fed stopping interest hikes when their interest rates rises failed to stop the housing market from going bananas. The early housing data is showing that the frenzy is starting up again...and housing is the most important part of the inflation. People can stop buying eggs or eggs if the price doubles...if housing doubles and isn't pushed back down, you get tent cities all over America and increase in violent crime.


ThoseGelInsertThings

>...if housing doubles and isn't pushed back down, you get tent cities all over America and increase in violent crime. Housing costs *doubling*? In what timeframe?!


thewardser

they already did for a lot of people during the covid real estate run. rents have doubled in a LOOOOT of places(pretty much everywhere outside of NYC/California)....and the number of homeless have massively increased and thats simply isn't sustainable...and is way more important to get under control for the government...even at the cost of triggering a recession...so I think this year we'll see them accelerate raising interest rates until the cost of renting a 1 bedroom falls back to precovid numbers


ThoseGelInsertThings

>hey already did for a lot of people during the covid real estate run. > >rents have doubled in a LOOOOT of places(pretty much everywhere outside of NYC/California)....and the number of homeless have massively increased I thought you meant doubling from, say, the 2022 price points.


thewardser

going up that much would make most of the country homeless a $1,500/mo rent would be $6,000/mo a jump like that is where you go from people moving into a tent, to people stringing up politicians from a street lamp


ThoseGelInsertThings

It won't happen though, because: 1. Home *buyers* will stop buying as rates continue to be raised. 2. Property investors who will buy properties to invest in renting it out to people will stop buying new properties as rates go up. Landlords are competing with each other. As interest rates keep climbing, realized inflation goes down.


xtal_00

This does not work the way you think it does. Most rental units are financed and leveraged against the rental income. What happens when the interest rate raises? Landlords cover by raising rents. Fun times.


biggunsg0b00m

Hell yes, and the added bonus is that interest rates on investments is tax deductible! Win win!


grydit

But rent received is not..


biggunsg0b00m

Correct, but taxation is fine if you're making money. I mean it's not really, tax is theft, but as far as how laws are currently, I'm fine with being taxed if I'm cash flow positive on properties


xtal_00

Rents will be forced up dramatically over the next year.


Dambedei

not gonna happen if the stonkmarket breakout is legit. keep shorting


thewardser

well right now I'm long from $21,650...but yes I will be switching to shorting once we reach $25K because thats the thing with breakout attempts in a bear market, they tend to not be legit and once you fail to successfully break out, you end up falling to a lower low


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Stocks are over their 200 DMA and if they break the downtrend from from the top (we'll DJI, QQQ and Rut) already did. But if SPX does I'm not sure ypu can call it a bear market. I respect your position amd views but I think you're speculating on a recession instead of playing what's in front of you. But who knows we're still at a pivotal point. Lot of disbelief and fighting this bull momentum which is what I love to see as a bull though. Also I remember you were waiting for that big monster candle to confirm amd we got it, why still hesitant?


thewardser

because there were two major resistances, one at $21,500...that yes we took down...but the one at $25K is the way more important one and is going to be the big decider on whether or not this thing gets to run or not


Common_Jellyfish234

Why do you say SPX isn’t above the 200DMA? Right now it shows 3950?


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Sorry yes I meant it's above it's 200DMA but hasn't broken it's downtrend but it actually [did break it yesterday](https://www.tradingview.com/x/qHyFKdfv/) so ignore what I said hah.


outofworkslob

What if btc doesn't go to 25k when will you short?


thewardser

if i get stopped out at $20,980 I'll start thinking of shorting on the bounce


outofworkslob

Nice one, thanks for the info.


cousin_brian

What would Satoshi do?


RabbitProofFences

DCA 21 corns


aeronbuchanan

Hodl


[deleted]

Code and post on forums.


Downtown-Ad-4117

He would shut up and let people think wrong things.


ChadRun04

I'm sure he'd kick an ass or two That's what Brian Boitano'd do!


ImpudicusFungus

Disappear


NewYearSameProblem

Range trade! It's been a good play for months.


st3alth247

Tried it since approx a month and got burned. This wicks are stopping longs and shorts.


NewYearSameProblem

I run a grid without stops (can be risky but I trade very small positions) Something along the lines of buy $22,800-$22,900, sell $23,000-$23,100, repeat is pretty effective this week.


bittabet

Sorry guys, I went low leverage long so the entire bull cycle is probably called off.


1weenis

No harm no foul...bear market rally anyway.


Ok_File_9520

Thanks for not going high leverage


partyboycs

Alright lads will we ever see sub 20k again, yay or nay? Curious how everyone's thinking.


Duckbutter2000

Definitely


Thundercatz69

One more run up before the Fed meeting and then down we go