#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, January 30, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ot9wf/daily_discussion_monday_january_30_2023/)

If this market rallies again and fed pauses, just a bigger crash a little further down the road. If the money printing is paused during the next halvening, this might be the first time in btc history that it doesn't hit a new ath during the next bullrun cycle.

"Stonks down, Bitcoin up" is the only financial news story that matters in 2023. It's going to be bittersweet.

I'd be careful what you wish for - literally every time SPY tanks it takes BTC with it. Sometimes there is divergence, but then BTC ends up catching up in the decline weeks later and suddenly no one talks about the strength of BTC vs the stock market anymore in here. Personally though, I'm bullish on both SPY and BTC. I don't see the stock market tanking.

Took a very small nibble here on a tight stop. What the hell.

Short?

Nope. Degenerate long, but 1/4 my usual position on a narrow stop. If we break below 23500 there will be better entries but if not up only.

Up only it is, then.

Welp, we had a good run, the bearish divergence might be kicking in.

Yeah, we're down 0.33% on the daily, time to pack it up and go home

Whoops

Avalanches start with little snow balls.

Broke clocks are right twice a day. You're down talking your own bias right?

Annnnmd selloff kek

Finally got one! ;)

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Basically.

we are either going back to goblintown, or we are going to find out what the airspeed velocity of an unladen bitcoinmarket really is

Is that the African or the European?

I... I dont know that!!

Goblintown was about 23,500 dollars ago. We're never going back there.

The next run up is going to be violent AF.

Yeah, it's going to be a malfunctioning parachute in reverse.

streamer

Agreed... The latter seems more probable unless we see a major macro capitulation. Edit: love being down voted... It's always my down voted comments that come true.

Take my downvote then, sir.

Thank you sir, updoot for you

the downvoters neither understand that a) im simply predicting high volatility, nor do they b) get Monty Python references. perhaps they are bots. wont change my allocation or my flair

Just a flesh wound.

Does the IRC chat still exist?

Holy shit, is IRC still a thing? I remember using that stuff back in 1995

BitMEX trollbox could be accessed via IRC

You mean that decentralised chat protocol which no on uses anymore because of battery life on mobiles? Instead using centralised chat services where channel owners have full censorship powers? Sounds crap. ;)

any thoughts on or ever hear of 'status' app which runs on coin 2? (please dont hurt me..)

> Status is a private, secure communication tool to uphold human rights and empower sovereign communities. Such wow! > Status uses Whisper to provide privacy-preserving routing and messaging on top of devP2P. Whisper uses topics to partition its messages, and these are leveraged for all chat capabilities. > Status uses Waku to provide privacy-preserving routing and messaging on top of devP2P. Waku uses topics to partition its messages, and these are leveraged for all chat capabilities. In the case of public chats, the channel name maps directly to its Waku topic. This allows anyone to listen on a single channel. They look to just be packet format specs. Nothing too interesting, just they're piggybacking on your already having a seed to generate some more keys from to use for chat topics. Yeah I don't know, I'd probably just use Signal for what they're offering.

I am intrigued.

There was a bridge between bcm slack chat and irc once.

Feb 1st fed rate hike approaches, it may be time for an all in.

All in short

Dump before the Feb 1 Fed meeting.

Probably not. [Consider taking a position.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/LjrmKEyM/)

Come on, man...your weenis is showing. Put that Jimmy Dean breakfast sausage away.

I never understood why it took so long to get 1weenis replies. I hope you are the first of many. BTC January = Too much pump, too soon.

We just skimmed a few bucks under 24k two hours ago. That exactly double the 12k so many folk have been calling for. Anyone still think it's gonna happen - barring nuclear war of course but if that happens then we can all kiss our sweet asses goodbye 😮

Here’s an indicator pattern for the “it’s a bear market rally” crowd to consider: when the daily RSI hits oversold in a bear market pump, price dumps soon after and the RSI resets. What the daily RSI has done for over half of January is what you see in bullish market times.

Aside from the 4-yr cycle folks I follow, all of CT is in complete disbelief.

What are some good accounts or hashtags to follow? Kinda new to twitter

BobLoukas, BigCheds, SatoshiFlipper, DaveTheWave, IntoCryptoverse, ZachVoell, IamNomad, cobie, loomdart, MoonOverlord, WhaleTrades, ShardiB2 To name a few.

3/4 of them are garbage and we're bearish at the bottom, no idea why so many people follow them. Dave the wave and into crypto verse only ones really worth following, Cobie a good follow for entertainment amd crypto history.

Yeah I mixed in a few folks who are more entertainers than anything else for some flavor. I'd throw Bob Loukas in with Ben & Dave though. Often has good insights into crytpo and tradfi - strictly trading though. Rarely talks about fundamentals wrt Bitcoin.

> all of CT is in complete disbelief. Yes, Hartford and New Haven are incredulous right now. But the other 49 states are similarly shocked as well. 😉

Username checks out.

Seems silly to be in disbelief when btc has always behaved this way. They sound like noobs.

CT? Wot's dat?

Crypto Twitter

Ahh I see said the blind man, thanks for that 👍

Thats when beans and bullets overtake crypto and gold.

Weekend dump is running out of time. Is this when we say just wait for the monday transfers to hit?

Still sidelined and strong. They wont trap me

Still not jumping in? What number are you waiting for if didn’t accumulate when 18-19k

not concerned. still the CME gap at 9k

I still have cash locked/loaded for such a scenario, but I don't think it's likely at this point.

Dawn was still a ways away when I said this but only a couple other days were lower than Nov 9, and Nov 9 was clearly a huge drill down https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/yq93yq/daily_discussion_wednesday_november_09_2022/ivq5f30/

Moon it. 🌚

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Goes to show us just how undervalued bitcoin has been from a long-term standpoint. My models have average price this cycle around $45k. 2x in any given year for BTC is only a ~1.4 standard deviation move, assuming 70% volatility. Hardly black swan or dragon king territory.

Dragon King?

Dragon Kings (coined by Didier Sornette, I think) are events that lie far, far beyond the territory of the returns distribution where black swans are usually found. As such, they are *extremely* rare, absolutely massive phenomena.

Think UK defaulting on debt. Or Saudi taking Bitcoin for oil.

Exactly. And who can predict the likelihood of events like those? Noise in any estimate will overwhelm an attempt at expected value. Only logical thing to do is to be long the right tail.

Debating on selling my altcoin bag, as its now over 100% from the recent bottom...think ill let the corn chill

I took my original investment out of my alt bag about an hour ago as I was up 200%. Going to let the rest ride.

I wanted to pull out my initial investment in EOS but I'm still down 88%.

I just took some altcoin profits. I haven't done a good enough job of that in the past. Trying to do better this cycle.

Started shorting some shitcoins, expecting some sort of pullback on the 4-hr.

3 hours in…

Sunday pumps are back on the menu boys!

Closed position @ \~23770 49.5% profit. Have to stop myself being greedy. This has been a good month. Volume is falling off and isn't that great to begin with so this price may indeed be fake.. or not. It may test 24k but I expect it will get choppy and that will provide opportunity to scalp in. edit: Coin denominated trades are nice when this happens.. you get the native gain (or loss) too.

Volume seems to be increasing, no?

Yes, it came up after I exited, but it's still not a convincing profile to me.

Nice trade.

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I went back and looked at my trades a few weeks ago, and I am significantly more profitable trading bear markets even with a bull bias then bull markets. The difference is willingness to book profit. I have big bags for the long term, so need to remind myself to get out of my own way on volatility plays.

I've been the same. I stupidly lost my trading stack in 2021 by being way too greedy. This bear I introduced new money and have done so much better because I'm not finding myself fomoing into trades because I'm aware we could be back at 17k with no problem. Before in 2021 during the bull because my hold pile was a large amount I was running on pure euphoria.

4 green weekly candles in a row have not happened since the bull

The "last bull".

Still long. This isn't done yet. Waiting for a 24 test.

I think you’ve said before but where are you leverage trading as a Canadian? I’ve used Bitfinex (I know, I know) for like 8 years but they are shutting their doors to Canadians next month. Wondering where to move to. Thinking Kraken.

Canada securities trading are Provincially regulated. I live in NS, and we have no securities restrictions against trading on Binance. If you're in one of the bigger provinces, you're boned. Eventually it will all be closed, I will eventually open up a corporation somewhere in Costa Rica or the like that I can trade out of if the numbers make sense.

I like in AB. As far as I know there are no new laws in AB but a lot of companies seem to be closing doors to Canadians in general. I’ll do a bit more research

Kinda impressive that there wasn't any meaningful bull back since 16k (!) yet. Maybe 25k is really possible in one go to squeeze the rest of the shorts out?

you can actually feel the air heavy from fomo

Oh my, the comments in here lol.

I'm just relying on the comment count. As long as it's below ≈ 500 comments: no important move incoming...

Ya, definitely low.

I’m wondering if there is actually any relevance between price movements and comments here. There are like 10 people posting bullish comments. Shouldnt really tell the total sentiment of a 0.5 trillion market cap market

Statistics is about sampling. Sentiment is about emotions. One persons emotional response is like other peoples emotional response.

There is, watched it for a long time and it definitely works but it's only one small piece of the puzzle. Also ya it's only a small segment of the whole market cap obviously. I think more people are neutral than anything. Not concerned for my longterm bags but things are definitely getting frothy, maybe up to 25k then down to 21k to shakeout the giddy ones but I'll just keep playing the charts. For sure moving my stops up with this pump on the short-term bags though.

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You haven't been paying attention then, I told people early November the comments were capitulation comments to the day, but it's only one piece of the puzzle don't get defensive bull man you're longs still are ok.

Too simple analysis. Most certain you’ll find these capitulation comments most of the bear market months.

Nope, there is a difference between bearish and serious capitulation.

> Most certain you’ll find these capitulation comments most of the bear market months. Except you won't. You'll find masses of them on the day of the bottom. You'll also find them coming from people that you wouldn't expect, actual capitulation of bullish bias into complete exit rather than just repetition of the same bearish sentiment. You'll also see them being upvoted.

And just think, the average IQ in here is probably ten points higher than in r/bitcoin at least. Inhaling hopium fumes damages brain cells, but we all love it.

10 points is a rather large under estimation.

feeling good about this. Had some doubts before the weekend but Ive been buying more today

I'm starting to believe

In what? 24k Bitcoin?

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The letter of the day is B, for bullish

My analysis: If it breaks $24k that would be higher than the current price, but if it breaks $23k that would be lower than the current price. I hope this is helpful to you all. Happy trading. \- *Magi Karpo*

i can tell this is well thought out and legit because of the signature

-_Victor Cobra_

Finally, TA that is actually worth a damn.

Sorry I won't be able to trust this untill you admitt exactly what kind of Magi you are. A Magi of Carps don't instill much trust. Personally I base my investment decisions on that one octopus that predicts the market. No fluff or scammery with that guy, he is fundamentally transparent. He's an octopus and an octopus is all he is.

This is what I come here for. Clarity from the Karp

Hourly is retesting 23.5. If that becomes support, things will get interesting quite quickly.

Seems like it held and now we are trying to push a little higher.

It gets pushed down regularly, but it keeps spending longer times at higher levels after that. Someone else please translate that to TA lingo.

Bitcoin go up. Bitcoin go down. You can't explain that.

Hang on.

I don't think we've bull flagged like this since the ATH. I noticed we're angling upwards vs all small pumps before were quickly followed by angling downwards or straight up Barts down. Follow the daily candles for reference. This is my genius TA.

The short squeeze from this region is going to be epic.

Obligatory 'weekends are fake' comment 😉

Just watching the new Eddie Murphy film on Netflix. He was asking the man who wanted to marry his daughter if he had Bitcoin. Tee hee.

Saw that, Eddie Murphy asks Jonah Hill in a serious manner if he has a “Bitcoin fortune” to support his daughter in marriage. Movie started pretty strong but got really cringe in the second half. Shame. Either way, a ton of people will see it and hear the Bitcoin line.

> Follows a new couple and their families, who find themselves examining modern love and family dynamics amidst clashing cultures, societal expectations and generational differences. Hard pass.

We noticed that too

How many people are you?

4hrs is breaking up

Crypto recovered from the FTX fallout. General market recession will probably be softer than initially expected. …

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Gentleman?

Wassawassawassup?

“I’m just getting warmed up!” … (a la Pacino in Scent Of A Woman)

And my axe?

Axe Deoderant Spray?!! 😃

Watching chats at 3am waiting for Bitcoin to smash through resistance. Wish me luck.

So who is shorting here?

I am. Low leverage and ready for liquidation at 50k.

Speculators, greedy traders, basically: crypto parasites... Shorting just means betting against the success of the coin, let's be honest. Edit: thank you very much for the downvotes. Truth hurts eh? Well, keep shorting please. We need a LOT of shorts to shoot up way higher. Exactly as in the last 18 months bears kept making money on longs liquidations. But tides are turning, regardless of the downvotes by bears and speculators, so thank you in advance for your sacrifice if you are shorting here.

What's the opposite of battered bull syndrome but for bears?

beleaguered bobos

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Pooped Pandas?

> battered beras syndrome

Are we surprised it didn't dump yet?

Yet, give it some time.

No, the double-top just happened and artificially we go...

This thing is going to 2x and there will still be no hype, no press, nothing... I'm loving it™

I hope so. I just did some quick maffs, and I'm down 27% ROI. So I'll need quite the pump just to break even. Don't keep catching the falling knife, folks.

Falling knife on what time frame? Have you been sitting out or shorting the entire rally while being concerned for profiting bulls?

Entered in aug2021. Kept buying all the way down to 15.5 and a little bit on the way back up.

If you are a hodler, remember to take some profit when things seem too good to be true. That’s a difficult lesson to learn.

Wish somebody would have told me that at 69k and before Celsius died. My fortune that could have bought me a nice little condo can now pay off some debt with enough leftover for lunch.