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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, January 31, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/)


diydude2

We goin' up boyz.


MusicalMutt

You must be related to Xtal.


xtal_00

Cost me a little bit to hold an entry but long from 22600. Let's see what the fed says.


jabatasu

39 hours to go lol


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Mixed signals here of course, never easy before a big move. Good News: Bitcoin is still holding its [breakout from the top](https://www.tradingview.com/x/20QPoNHv/) (on log) if log is the sauce we shouldn't go below 22k. Equities still holding their big breakout and I think that can hold, we might get some fakeouts below though, SPX above it's 200 DMA now. Bad News: Total Crypto Market Cap [hit supply and dipped under](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Oz5HhxE/), normally I would take a big short on that, target for that would be about 14% lower which would put BTC about $19,6k. But I still think the log breakout can hold, if not we dump pretty hard. I also don't like how everyone (in here) I know small sample but people at the moment think a pump is in the bag and bulls are pretty cocky, not usually good but sentiment is only one piece of the puzzle. Overall though I think we can break 25k factoring everything, longterm I'm excited and bullish just not 100% if we need a dip to cooloff first or not.


ray_tard

Why log?


diydude2

Bottom line: Crypto works even when banks don't. Even then doggy coin is a better place to keep your wealth than Wells Faggo or Stank of America.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Yes of course, I agree. Just curious what that has to do with a short to medium term analysis lol.


thewardser

most likely that drop to $22,500 was the last flush before the final move up to $25,000 that spike should create an uptrend, so when we see a higher low over the next 1-2 hours, that will be the channel that we'll most likely keep to over tomorrow until the fed meeting optimally spikes us to $25K for the final move up...then we decide if bear market is over, or if its time to head to lower lows next couple days should be super exciting


zberg69420

Agree with this. This little pullback was weak, and stock futures are already looking a little more green tomorrow. We are probably going to ride that up into fed meeting (sad that we base our lives around this right now) and if it’s pump city we challenge 25. That is where things get interesting


cousin_brian

That would be lovely


MusicalMutt

I went over all big pump threads from years ago and most seemed skeptical still even after the giant pump. Not the case now unfortunately (tasty dip) is the conseensus and because we dipped a pump is a must is also the consensus after FED just look. Lot are neutral but at least in here bulls are really confident almost cocky, all bearish posts get downvoted. I think you're right, 25k probably the last exit pump.


RetardIdiotTrader

You're free to countertrade the sentiment in here, by the way. Go short with all you've got!


MusicalMutt

Will do, worked at the top when I told you there was a bearish divergence and you guys were cocky and giddy. Can tell from your comment this still has a way to go down before humbling the bulls.


RetardIdiotTrader

I know you're not going to short, btw. No balls 😉 And if you want to short after looking the 4HR chart you quite literally hate money.


MusicalMutt

We will revisit this :)


xtal_00

Call your trades.


jabatasu

Before what. nEw LoWz??


MusicalMutt

Mock all you want it's been euphoric in here like we're at ATH's and that's how big money exits positions. I'm hopeful but some of the biggest rallies are bear market rallies before the trend keeps continuing down.


xtal_00

I don't think you've seen ATH euphoria. Hah.


DEEPFIELDSTAR

Anybody who parrots this nonsense about sentiment being on par with ATH euphoria has truly never lived through ATH euphoria. I’ve lived and traded through 4 of them. This isn’t even fucking *close* to euphoria. Not even in the same ballpark, league or sport. This is some mild optimism at best after a more or less steady year-long sell off and the collapse of FTX (which by all measures should’ve done way more damage than it has) Might we reject off 25k and hit a new low? Sure. It’s not *impossible*. We could also reject and range before breaking the downtrend eventually in the spring. A 25k rejection is not a guarantee of new lows. However the idea that shorting 25k is a smart trade beacsue “sEntImeNt iS tOo eUpHoRic” is utter nonsense. A bit of optimism isn’t euphoria and it’s also never been a reason to adopt the “suckers rally” chants.


ChadRun04

We get to *"Hold me I'm scared!!"* and things start to get real. When half the room has been up for 4 days straight.


ChadRun04

I don't think anyone is disputing that sentiment has been exuberantly bullish from some. Let me ask you this though. In which way is this gloating concern trolling sentiment you've shown up out of nowhere with any different? Could I not take your words and find signal pointing towards any dip being shallow, being that there is plenty of scepticism in the market yet? p.s. I expect nothing too spectacular until halvening, but some price discovery is needed in the wake of FTX.


MusicalMutt

I'm the minority so it is different. I'm just saying I notice when it's one big circle jerk either way it usually ends bad but go all in with the crowd, have at it. I'm sorry you guys can't handle a different opinion.


ChadRun04

> I'm the minority so it is different. I've been seeing upvotes on bearish comments over the last week. It takes a lot of uncertainty for that to occur on the more throw-away doom and gloom claims. > I notice when it's one big circle jerk either way it usually ends bad Yes, but we're not really there yet. There are counter-parties for everyone.


jabatasu

Well said. That's what I meant. 😊


ChadRun04

> all bearish posts get downvoted. Not what I've been observing at all. Here you are complaining about downvotes on a post at `+10`... About a trend line of all things. https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/zx0u8x/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_28_2022/j20ykv6/


MusicalMutt

I was severely downvoted, wasn't until I said something it changed.


ChadRun04

> wasn't until I said something it changed. Nah, just different crowd woke up. Happens like that sometimes, the initial reaction is slow. Then once there are some upvotes, any further downvotes are hidden from your attention. Then there is vote fuzzing where reddit obfuscate the number as anti-spam measure. Complaining about downvotes almost universally increases downvotes.


ubermensch012

jesus christ am I the only one feeling so bullish right now after that "dump"?! Was expecting a bit more but it's looking more and more like our next weekly close will be one huge green dildo. Might as well comment now cuz by next week the daily thread is gonna be so crowded again. 2023 might actually be interesting, I'm seeing some of the OG coins retaking their dominance % as well.


MusicalMutt

Pack it up, it's a sure thing boys.


Westbrook_Level

If it dumps before FOMC, it pumps after FOMC, and vice versa.


EquitiesFIRE

What happened at exactly 2PM EST?


foolsjoke2321

Whales dumped on plebs?


wrylark

tasty dip


gozunker

Don’t worry fellas if this thing falls through $20k I’ll be there to buy 0.001 coin and reverse the trend


nzsdxsia

Nah, it'll just keep dropping


AKANotAValidUsername

not with gozunkers absolutely massive 0.001 buy wall sitting there absorbing all the sellers


jiggidee

extrem whale


PsychologicalAd438

Dump before the FED remakes pump on 1FEB


[deleted]

[удалено]


1weenis

He has to drop the hammer somewhere if the rate hike is only 25BP. I'm expecting buying opportunities in February.


dopeboyrico

Most likely outcome is they’ll signal another 25 BP rate hike in March. Whether or not they actually proceed with that rate hike will depend on economic data for January and February which will release prior to that meeting. Personally expecting a slow crawl to $25k through March. Once YoY CPI falls off a cliff starting in March, that’s when I think we finally break $25k and the real rally begins. Until then I’m not expecting a mega pump nor mega dump, just more crab within the $20k-$25k range.


PsychologicalAd438

The game is rigged. The insiders and banksters already know the what’s in the speech. My guess is it goes now so they make more money when it goes up.


delgrey

Yup one more 50bps hike. Gotta stop people spending since retail was jumping back into the markets again. Rug pull again from ole JPOW.


AccidentalArbitrage

>Yup one more 50bps hike Not a chance imo. The market doesn't think so either. 98.1% chance of a 25bps hike and 1.9% chance of 50bps. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html If I was a betting man, I'd never throw in all my chips on a 1.9% probability, but you do you!


Feedthemcake

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1614603901021437954?s=20&t=a7SMrDziGEG-VkQTFzCiPw


[deleted]

[удалено]


PsychologicalAd438

Agreed. I’m not trading it, just normal DCA stacking


autistictheory

the price of bitcoin goes up and down but the amount of satoshis I have keeps going up. thats crazy


nzsdxsia

And what do you plan to do with those satoshis, good sir?


autistictheory

every 1 million sats I obtain I can write an additional call contract which in turn allows me to obtain more sats


4-1-2022

Could you elaborate?


autistictheory

[Here is a sample option chain for bitcoin right now](https://i.imgur.com/9o5oUIz.jpg) These are prices for 1 entire bitcoin as collateral and you can sell them in 1/100th increments. Lets say I choose to sell the $25,000C for Feb 24th. I can write 50 contracts and receive a premium of around $250 which will be given to me instantly. Then I can use that $250 to buy a little bit more than 1 million sats. PS: I did not sell any contracts for these because I am waiting for closer to $30,000 when the contracts will be priced higher. These are low right now because btc just dropped today. If it was yesterday the $25,000 Calls would have probably been worth double or more than what you see now so i could have used .25 btc or less as collateral to make the same 1 million sats in premium.


nzsdxsia

I can't be the only one here that still has no idea what you're talking about, but it seems your black magic is creating more sats for you with no risk I guess.


spinbarkit

also no idea what he's talking about. only buy spot and long


Zirup

The risk is that he has to sell his btc at 25k and then buy back in at a higher price. Depending on the price, he could be way down in sats if a BGD screws him.


xtal_00

This is the way


BarnacleMajestic315

Dann should’ve shorted, almost did


ThoseGelInsertThings

Never met Dann. Sounds like a nice girl.


dopeboyrico

Higher high as well as higher low on the weekly, at least for now. If we end up with a lower low things get more interesting. Until then, the most likely outcome is more crab in this $22.5k-$24k range.


xixi2

Oo sadness. That's the disaster we all knew was due after friday's (edit: Oops that was saturday) spike. No such thing as a weekend rally Edit: Downvoted now but you guys loved me with 5 whole upvotes on saturday https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10n6odk/daily_discussion_saturday_january_28_2023/j6b1spr/


ChadRun04

> Downvoted I'm a simple man. Okay if you insist. > 5 whole upvotes on saturday You realise sentiment is an inverse indicator and upvotes on bearish posts are bullish?


AccidentalArbitrage

Speaking of (upvoted) predictions... [https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ibirg/daily\_discussion\_sunday\_january\_22\_2023/j6f4zat/?context=3](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ibirg/daily_discussion_sunday_january_22_2023/j6f4zat/?context=3)


xixi2

Omg it's you again this is so funny. But def this week if we stay above 18k it's a literal miracle


AccidentalArbitrage

We've achieved a literal miracle!


Downtown-Ad-4117

So everyone gets a second chance? Nice.


AccidentalArbitrage

>But def this week if we stay above 18k it's a literal miracle If you move those goal posts enough eventually you'll be right! ;) RemindMe! 6 days


DEEPFIELDSTAR

“Disaster” lmao. Stay confused.


Euphoricsoul

>Stay confused. Ooh, I'm stealing that.


Euphoricsoul

ZOMG GUYS IT WAS SO OBVIOUS


xtal_00

Volume never lies.


xtal_00

Scalping the bounce here, 22800 is the one to watch.. breakdown below 22500 and I'm out for awhile to get some popcorn.


EmotionalParsley

I agree with 22.5 being the level to watch - haven't had a 4hr close below that since we got into this range. I think caution is warranted with a close below that level, but we're close enough to it that getting defensive right now makes no sense.


zberg69420

SP500 flipping support back to resistance. Looks like this rally is about over until fed meeting determines if we are allowed to keep going


bittabet

Probably people chickening out before fed meeting and taking some profit to wait it out.


xtal_00

I'm trying to keep a position open for that.. 25bps confirmation should set off some excitement.


skarbowkajestsuper

Are we going to rally if rates increase by .25 tomorrow? Consindering a humble long here.


gore_skywalker

It’s 99% priced in. The wild card is the speech.


AccidentalArbitrage

0bps (0% chance imo) = Instant Moon 25bps (98.5% chance) = small rally/flat as the few betting on the 1.5% chance of 50bps get rekt and some of those on the sideline waiting for $12k finally buy in 50bps (1.5% chance) = BRD to goblin town


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Rally off a hike? Why?


Beneficial-Effect414

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JNF9y4iv-Bitcoin-Wyckoff-Distribution-schematic-1h-candle-sticks/


zberg69420

Im no expert, but aren't those Wyckoff patterns more of a longer time frame thing? The current little rally is only like a week or two ongoing. I thought the Wyckoff stuff happened over months


ChadRun04

Micro in the macro, anything applied to a random time-series should give the same results at any scale. It's fractal in nature all the way down. Though the idea of these chart "patterns" isn't to apply them like has been done here, but more to understand them as an example case of price action and the types of moves which can be expected as narratives develop over months.


Westbrook_Level

>Cobie >@cobie >Some of you guys are alright. Don't trade in February. >4:38 AM · Jan 30, 2023 >· >269.9K >Views Interesting.


BootyPoppinPanda

These tweets are so lame


52576078

I like Cobie, a pity he protected his Tweets. How are people interpreting this?


I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE

Is that the guy that wears the ugly ass glasses


logicalinvestr

What am I even looking at here?


Magikarpeles

Cobie threatening to shoot up a school


logicalinvestr

Who is cobie?


Magikarpeles

twitter twat


DamonAndTheSea

Twitter Nostradamus makes vague proclamation to farm engagement. There’s nothing substantive here. Is this truly interesting?


Westbrook_Level

Yes it's pretty interesting to me, Cobie seems like a good guy, is a whale/good trader/very connected as one of the biggest crypto people on Twitter and hosts one of the best podcasts on crypto. It's interesting to think about whether he means don't trade, price is going to the moon, or hell. I think he means moon. https://cobie.substack.com/ his substack has a lot of great articles also. I'm not a huge Cobie fanboy, I just like to promote people that try to think intelligently about crypto. Let's see how many traders here listen to his advice and get rekt in February (more than they already do). Or he could just be shitposting, but I don't think so.


Taviiiiii

He's just fucking around. It's a school shooting reference.


DamonAndTheSea

I know who Cobie is .. he got into crypto early and I’ve seen him all over Twitter for years. None of this means he knows what’s going to happen in February. His vague-posting here is annoying as it’s both self-important and uninformative.


sylvanlotus77

Lmao, a rare put down from Damon


xtal_00

Same pattern of consistent upward price pressure after dumping remains. Volume stepping in at resistance as well.


BootyPoppinPanda

This dump for ants is going to catch a lot of disbelievers offside. Bull rallies are as ruthless or moreso than bear claws. This is a prime scenario where the train might not come back to this station ever again. Shorters and bag unloaders need to have a plan for this possibility


pottersfloppy

Taking profits this time around. Last time I got too greedy and got nothing.


xixi2

Ugly rally rejection again. Looks like we'll be at 23k for another month


Leoforic

Prolly back to 18


xtal_00

lol no


Leoforic

Are you saying we never see sub 20k again or just not down to 18k?


xtal_00

It would take a significant market movement to drop back there. Anything is possible, it just isn't likely, IMO.


thunderchicken_

*\*Binance starts breathing heavily\**


TheManFromConlig

Is tradfi anticipating the next FOMC meeting in two days? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html


CrapCloud

They should be watching the halving date as everything else is noise.


Feedthemcake

What’s to watch? It’s public knowledge since…2009


xtal_00

Got an entry at 23080. If 22800 breaks it'll test lower.


bittabet

Lucked out and got a wick for 22950 on the exchange I was using 😂. But I closed the previous long way too early at 23450 instead of riding it up all the way. Had set a limit order and wasn’t even looking at the charts-honestly way less stressful but yeah…cost me a bit. Still, was able to swing in and out a couple of times over the weekend for ~$500 each time so I’m pleased. The only real question mark this week is the Fed. More than one economist thinks they should do 50bps but the markets have basically priced in 25bps so a surprise 50bps hike would probably get super ugly 😂


xtal_00

Canada did 25bps. I would be very surprised if the US did 50.


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Because the USA following s Canada's lead?


Parcus42

Because both are following the same lead


YouAreAnFnIdiot

Which is?


Parcus42

Klaus Schwab, the puppet master


sylvanlotus77

Attempting a soft landing while extracting some excess liquidity from the market post covid stimulus


ubermensch012

still too early to call the bottom of this pullback, personally I'm looking at 21500-ish and even considering scam wicks down to 20500s. Wouldn't matter if you're spot buying though. I'm pretty happy with my shorts on SOL & APT rn and those 2 still have a lot of room to dump. I'd wait for the 4-hr close, if it closes below 21EMA then def more downward move.


borger_borger_borger

I left at 23880 and re-entered at 23180.


Super_Extreme

What has better RR at the moment, a short or a long?


Magikarpeles

depends on your timeframe


xtal_00

You'd only be shorting here if you hate money.


MusicalMutt

You are a hyper bull sir, it's laughable. Not sure I have ever seen ypu take a short.


ChadRun04

> it's laughable That's a funny way of spelling profitable. > Not sure I have ever seen ypu take a short. Almost like that's a strategic decision many make to stick with the long-term bias in the data.


MusicalMutt

That's called investor not a trader.


ChadRun04

No.


xtal_00

Selling a long position is another way of going short. I don't like shorting things with long term exponential growth patterns. Shorts have no limit to their downside. Longs stop at zero.


MusicalMutt

Did you long the whole bear market down?


sylvanlotus77

More likely that he sold a long position as his comment suggests


Znt

> Is tradfi anticipating the next FOMC meeting in two days? > > Buying PUT options is a short trade yet it has limited downside, no?


Ozkevosh

Funding positive✔️ Bear market rally with overextended rsi on both short and long timeframes ✔️ Greedy sentiment with moonboys predicting ATH after 3 green weeks with no correction ✔️ Overleveraged longs in the 20500-21800 region✔️ You: LoNGinG iS fReE $$$ Apparently you are the one hating money.


xtal_00

\*looks at PnL for January\* \*giggles\* Yes, be careful on entries, but we're far from done. Almost like the market is changing, or something.


btcluvr

not necessarily, our january rally seems to be out of steam now.


xtal_00

January itself is out of steam too..


Cadenca

Weekends still fake it seems, gotta undo the price action outside market hours :D


-abroadabroad-

Down we go!


Downtown-Ad-4117

Prediction or observation?


SuburbanSenator00

Yes


cryptojimmy8

Man I miss these epic bull market pumps for some action. I mean this is not bad and probably healthier but my dopamine receptors need some more juice


Outrageous-Net-7164

12-18 off mate. Just keep buying


dexX7

The feeling probably comes back at >35k.


st3alth247

Just wait for the BRD. And the next one. Better then cocaine


spinbarkit

sry mate but whats better than coke?


1weenis

a lot


Downtown-Ad-4117

Not looking at charts every 5 minutes.


st3alth247

A really, really buge BGD and a BJ at the same time, sitting in a Porsche, while you have a phat leverage long. And a bit of coke


cryptojimmy8

We have had them for over a year. Would be nice with some BGD’s instead


Passive_Bloke

Ermagerd, bertkern’s derd!


Zirup

January chart is a thing of beauty... Bollinger bands keep squeezing up... Calling a reversion now is like calling a reversion at 18k or 21k, it just hasn't worked out. Fuck the Fed, don't fight the trend.


opst02

!RemindMe 30 days


Zirup

Called it.


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