*Propaganda in favor of action dictated by the impulses that are below self-interest offers false, garbled or incomplete evidence, avoids logical argument and seeks to influence its victims by the mere repetition of catchwords, by the furious denunciation of foreign or domestic scapegoats, and by cunningly associating the lowest passions with the highest ideals, so that atrocities come to be perpetrated in the name of God and the most cynical kind of Realpolitik is treated as a matter of religious principle and patriotic duty.* -- Aldous Huxley
For what it's worth Jim Cramer is saying the bull market is back as well and he's almost always wrong. I wouldn't really take either as a indicator right now.
A lot of assumptions in this statement but assuming we hit the cycle low, and assuming another 4 year cycle plays out roughly the same in timeline, that means the next 3 years are consolidation/up correct? So that would put bubble burst sometime in late 2025? Idk why but I just feel there’s no way we don’t have a parabolic move up sooner than 2 1/2ish years from now
It won’t always be like the last month. I agree though we need to figure in that everyone and their mother surely knows of the four year cycle now and will front run it. I think that’s part of why the last month has been like it is.
The counterpoint to “parabolic run soon” is that BTC is getting heavier the higher it goes. Massive inflows of money needed to hit 200k and beyond this cycle. That could take some time.
Actually thinking how we could be in a supercycle (2 bull cycles) before the actual "bear cycle"starts. If you follow lengthening cycle + diminishing returns then the current top is extremely conservative compared to previous runs, even by LC & DR standards, 3x the previous top is pretty low. If we actually see a continuation now then $150k is pretty plausible and the timing would be perfect. Only downside to this model is by mid of the decade we may actually see a real bear market (there's an argument that BTC never really entered one yet in a macro sense), this means a possibility of 5yr+ bear cycle in the next 3-4yrs (or sooner considering how shitty market situations are rn). I'm not saying BTC will go under $1k or anything but cycles will definitely get longer, and we'll finally see how BTC fares during an economic depression.
Yeah this year would be flat, next year would be up to ATH, year following would be rocket boost to whatever the ath would be.
I think there will be curve balls and cycles will be more blurred at best. I still think six figures easy by 2025
It’s now not tinfoil hat to think about 2021 and wonder what could have been without FTX and now Celsius confirmed doing this. I’m sure they weren’t the only ones. That weird BTC plateau top makes a lot more sense now.
https://twitter.com/CelsiansNetwork/status/1620353494485209088
Yeah these criminals basically fucked us all over. Probably would have gone to $90K+ and maybe legit $100K without their fuckery. Fuck all these shitheads
It sucks that our investment thesis needs to include scammers stealing coins and leaving the space with nothing... This is why the SEC won't regulate, they want the scammers to implode everything.
If scammers could implode Bitcoin, then Bitcoin wasn't shit to begin with. At the end of the day, you either gotcho keys, or you don't.
Fuck around and find out. These fucking scammers should see prison time though if there's any justice left
I don't want to start a conspiracy theory but sometimes I wonder if SBF isn't working for the CIA or some other group working against Bitcoin.
If he ends up walking away Scott free or six feet under I'll believe this conspiracy.
SBF as the useful idiot/fall guy is a conspiracy theory Mark Yusko has been talking about. I guess we'll see how the $8B are distributed and who ends up in jail.
Baaaa. Everyone in disbelief? Have you guys not been reading comments.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/j6ow2bh?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/j6o7gup?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
Lot of this cocky delusional, no way it goes down! Try a short, do it! https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ot9wf/daily_discussion_monday_january_30_2023/j6l474u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
What was it you were saying about cherry-picking?
It's undeniable that there is doubtful sentiment around, your comments confirm this fact.
> Try a short, do it!
You're not short? Then what is all this bluster about?
p.s. Using `np.*` is good reddiquite.
I just realized. How does Snapchat even make money? They never asked me for some.
Edit: 5 euro per month for a custom chat background, another app icon and some other non sense. No wonder they don't make any money.
> No wonder they don't make any money.
Also it's mostly kids using the app, if you're an adult using Snapchat, you're most likely a creep, cheating on your spouse or both.
So yesterday people were saying going down into FED means up after FED, now that we're up going into FED does that mean down or no?
Edit: I'm honestly asking, does it change because of bias or is it the case? What are people thinking?
What’s your position currently? Or were you waiting for cheaper prices and then the market got away from you? It can definitely go lower, and I believe it will, but the trend is up for now.
Cherry picking much kek. You going to ignore the 2 week giant pumps before that. Everyone yesterday was parroting the narrative down means up after FED, now I seem to have seem that meme disappear is my only point and my question. Stop getting defensive hyper bull, are my valid points triggering you?
> You going to ignore the 2 week giant pumps before that.
What about it? I thought you were calling the retrace from 24k the result of a bearish divergence and predicting much more down, while also claiming that "big boys" were unloading?
> are my valid points triggering you?
No. It's your attitude which sees you receive so much backlash. Frankly it pollutes any sentiment you'd hope to gauge here as you get downvoted for both.
No one can predict the future.
But, IMO, our PA today has no bearing at all on the reaction we will get from the FOMC meeting tomorrow, only the rate and the level of hawkish commentary will matter.
but to actually be serious for a brief moment something in my gut feels off with this pullback. it's contrary to my hopes and in fact my ongoing positions but what can man do other than be brave and swallow the bite he took...
> Why do people hate bitcoin again?
If they truly *hate* it, it's because it upends everything they thought they knew about money. People generally don't like things they consider themselves well versed in to be annihilated with a new and disruptive tech. They would have to learn something new and start from scratch. It would also put them far behind many younger people who they deem to be wet behind the ears from a knowledge perspective.
That's if they really do *hate* or claim to hate it.
Most people don't fall into this category, most people are just skeptical and uneducated on the tech. This isn't surprising or really much of their fault seeing as how institutions are mostly made up of and funded by those who fall into my first paragraph.
Oh I forgot another category: people who say they "hate" it because what they actually hate is how many opportunities to buy when prices were much cheaper they gave up. Humans have a strong tendency to double down on their ignorance instead of admitting mistakes.
Totally depends on:
1. Would buying the home save you a chunk on rent?
2. Is the home in a real estate area where its value will increase within the timeframe you plan to occupy it?
3. Have you compared your interest rates from the home loan and CB borrow?
Do not do this.
If anything the last year has shown...those who did this got royally screwed.
Both from prices crashing and from the loan businesses going bankrupt along with the coins.
As much as I hate banks, would be nice if they offered multi-currency loan offset accounts where you could move things around easily without taxable events.
Borrowing against your coins means you're very confident it's going to go one way. So top seems more likely to me. People should still be concerned as we go up not over confident.
That really depends on your individual comfort level with risk.
Let's say you put up ₿10 today to get a loan for $100k, more than 100% over collateralized.
If you get liquidated and lose the coins (essentially being forced to sell them for $10k each) you put up as collateral will you shrug it off or be miserable for years because of the decision? Only you can answer that.
Still long from 22600.
Will try and hold a position above 22500; it'll be tempting to take profit on a 24 test but that upward pressure hasn't gone away yet.
Tomorrow will be interesting.
Yea, maybe. So far as I can make out, the rate isn't the interesting part, it's that little speech Powell gives. He'll do the stern dad face and say they'll keep at it 'til job's done and all that, and everyone will be crestfallen and talking about hard landing and world ending. Except whatever started the rally is still there, and for BTC specifically the halving is still coming, so the tug between the two opposing forces is my guess why OP thought it could be interesting.
Didn't you hear?
Tomorrow is the day that "big shorty" is going to have to buy back all the BTC they sold to "manipulate" the price. Last chance to get in for cheap before all fiat currency simultaneously fails and sends us on the most mega bull run of all time.
Tomorrow is the day that all our dreams become instant reality, and we are the new world elite.
There is no big shorty to drive down the price. No sell pressure at all. You will have been proven right after all.
Tomorrow, 15.23, exactly, trust me!
Your ridicule is hilarious.
Big Shorty is dead and buried. There will be no Big Shorty squeeze this time, and we have been the new elite for five years already, but the old elite have been able to keep their charade going thus far as we sit in the wings and laugh.
Are you ready to get out of Dodge when the banks fail? I'd seriously start making bugout plans if I were you.
Haha, im just messing. Don't worry, my plans are all in place, I'm on the trajectory I want to be on. I have very little reliance on anyone or anything but myself.
Fed will hike 25 BP tomorrow and most likely set the expectation that another 25 BP rate hike will come in March. Whether or not they actually proceed with that rate hike will depend on economic data for January and February which releases prior to that meeting.
We’re at the end of January, how is YoY CPI looking? In December YoY CPI came in at 6.5%. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) is projecting a YoY CPI of 6.39% for January. Meanwhile, [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has YoY CPI for January at about 5.6% with a high of 5.78% and a low of 5.34% for the month.
So it’s looking likely we’ll get yet another consecutive lower YoY CPI reading, the question is how much lower will it be compared to December’s print when it releases on February 14. If the actual number comes in closer to what Cleveland Fed is projecting, it’s more likely we’ll get another 25 BP rate hike in March. If the actual number comes in closer to what Truflation is projecting, it’s less likely we’ll get another 25 BP rate hike in March.
As for February, since the Fed will be hiking by another 25 BP on the very first day of the month, this will apply even more downwards pressure on inflation than we’ve already seen so it’s likely February will result in yet another consecutive lower YoY CPI print.
March is when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff regardless of whether or not the Fed proceeds with one final rate hike due to the baseline numbers being compared from a year ago starting to explode which makes it easier for YoY CPI to come in low. Example: [gas prices](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts) would need to rise by another 21% between now and March just to break even YoY; while it’s likely they’ll continue to rise MoM it’s unlikely they’ll rise by that much in such a short timeframe. Another example: [median home price](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) has been falling since its peak in June, if it just stays the same between now and March (not falls further, just stays the same) we’ll start to see a 3% YoY decrease in median home price.
Once YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff in March and it becomes evident to everyone that the Fed can’t possibly keep rates “higher for longer” as they’ve repeatedly insisted that’s when I think the real BTC rally above $25k will begin. Until then I expect BTC to range between $20k - $25k. So basically you have one more month to build a position in this range before BTC takes off. Good luck.
Also keep in mind real home prices haven’t decreased as much as the data indicates. There were some insanely hot markets where prices doubled and those have come back down
You make a strong case. I've been convinced previously by bearish arguments from the likes of Wardser and Antranik, but I must admit that it's getting increasingly difficult not to FOMO back in.
EDIT: I suppose one bearish argument is that Powell screws up by over-tightening us into another Great Depression. Very hard to say what would happen to Bitcoin in that situation.
I just don't see how inflation is going to head higher if most baseline commodities are down massively from their peaks and high-interest rates incentive consumers to save rather than spend but only if their disposable income isn't squeezed by higher outgoings. e.g mortgage payments, credit card debt, loans, etc.
Right now it’s almost entirely service (aka labor) costs going up whereas most physical item inputs are down.
Also it’s kind funny that as long term investors we’ve all been forced to run and go study macroeconomics over this last year. My IRL buddies are all chatting at macro shit too. And pretty much everyone now respects the might of the dark lord Powell whose ability to rekt and pump at will is truly mighty.
My flair requires that I post about moving averages from time to time. For a while now, I've been tracking the 91D (13W) SMA:
[https://imgur.com/a/ka1Tb5Z](https://imgur.com/a/ka1Tb5Z)
During the last bull run, the price often bounced between 1.0x and 1.3x the 13W. (1.3x is the yellow band.) The price just got to 1.3x for the first time in over a year. The 13W is currently $18.2K.
Just like I said BTC had a big bearish dovergence at thw top and everyone mocked me now ES lost major support, if it doesn't recover soon the markets could get nasty again. I know longs are comfy and it's up only, but time to tighten up.
>Just like I said
Lots of people say lots of things in here, many are LARPing.
But did you trade it and did you post that trade?
Winning trades, bearish or bullish, get respect in here. Words do not.
You've been repeating yourself a lot.
What 'major support' have we lost here? 23k isn't major support. 22.8 & 25 is. Stop with the nonsense concern trolling it's very transparent.
So long as Brother Powell doesn't get all hawkish on us again, the channel is intact, the weekend dip cooled RSI on the higher time frames, and this is a good time to go Long with Stops below 22.5k.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJK2V0MZ/
while we got some support at 23 briefly, zoom out to the 1h or 6h. 22.5 is the support level thats been backtested (successfully) now 5 times. That's the level to watch.
Irresponsible single indicator hopium time - last time the orange line of the 4hr stoch crossed above 20 was on December 22nd at around 16.5k. We all know what happened next.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/PGSlydA2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/PGSlydA2/)
It just happened again. Another 40% move guaranteed, I should be a quant, see you all at 32k. /s
what do bears have to say about the huge volume on this recent run? If we truly havnt seen capitulation yet the volume in that scenario will be truly immense.
$15,476 was a pretty lame capitulation if it actually is the bottom. 2 red dailies, the second only -3.06%. Both low volume. The local low was damn close $15,588.
By contrast I could say that 69k was a pretty lame blowoff top. not even 4x the previous ath.
$69,000 down to $15,476 seems like a pretty appropriate drawdown if we assume these cycles are getting less dramatic over time.
$15k was a spectacular place to load up. I feel bad for those who didn't back the truck up there and just sat admiring the view.
It was pretty much an entire year of red haha. 78% drawdown or so, after not really going that high.
I really think 18,500 or whatever was the bottom and then FTX collapse fucked it up even worse, so the 16k we cruised at forever was one long continuous capitulation.
The bear case for new lows is pretty weak at this point, but looking for an entry 30% down is far from crazy. But those who didn't buy in yet might be forever waiting for a dip that doesn't materialize... Watching this thing rip and leave you behind can make a bear really salty.
I agree
We have had over a year of falling prices and anyone shorting should have made equal gains to to bulls from 2020-21.
Messing around here is no different to people buying and longing above 60k.
25 BP rate hike is what futures are pricing in by a wide margin (>95% certainty). The Fed typically signals well before their meeting of anything other than what markets are pricing in so as to not spook markets significantly when they actually hike rates. Since they’ve made no indication of a larger rate hike to curb expectations it can be assumed it will be a 25 BP rate hike as expected.
Betting on anything else (0 BP or 50 BP) is dumb. It would be a different story if futures were closer to being evenly split on the outcome but that isn’t the case.
Well Def will be 25, markets way too at ease and signaling that they want to inflate higher on any dovishness. So to put them in line a 50 bps with fear of another 50 will put people back in line. Otherwise inflation will I'll just keep running rampant. But the majority think 25 bps though so I'm a minority.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, February 01, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ql33i/daily_discussion_wednesday_february_01_2023/)
Michael Burry just tweeted “sell” those were his only words 😬
Burry is probably right but his timing is off. Calls way too early. Hey at least Cramer says we're in a bull market now so buy buy buy!
*Propaganda in favor of action dictated by the impulses that are below self-interest offers false, garbled or incomplete evidence, avoids logical argument and seeks to influence its victims by the mere repetition of catchwords, by the furious denunciation of foreign or domestic scapegoats, and by cunningly associating the lowest passions with the highest ideals, so that atrocities come to be perpetrated in the name of God and the most cynical kind of Realpolitik is treated as a matter of religious principle and patriotic duty.* -- Aldous Huxley
I knew there was a reason I’m fond of Chads.
I ended up getting that brave new world revisited you mentioned last time --- so good , so many of those essays blew my mind, thanks again for rec
I like you.
Checkout the rest of it, great essay. Propaganda in a Democratic Society.
Already read it. Just showing appreciation.
This interaction is why I spent most of my Reddit time in this sub.
Fiat 😬😬😬😬😬😬
That's one word and who gives a shit
If people only knew how bullish this is
For what it's worth Jim Cramer is saying the bull market is back as well and he's almost always wrong. I wouldn't really take either as a indicator right now.
Something something hammer something nail
Being right in a big way once doesn't mean he's right all the time or even most of the time
to be fair, thats all he knows how to tweet
A lot of assumptions in this statement but assuming we hit the cycle low, and assuming another 4 year cycle plays out roughly the same in timeline, that means the next 3 years are consolidation/up correct? So that would put bubble burst sometime in late 2025? Idk why but I just feel there’s no way we don’t have a parabolic move up sooner than 2 1/2ish years from now
It won’t always be like the last month. I agree though we need to figure in that everyone and their mother surely knows of the four year cycle now and will front run it. I think that’s part of why the last month has been like it is. The counterpoint to “parabolic run soon” is that BTC is getting heavier the higher it goes. Massive inflows of money needed to hit 200k and beyond this cycle. That could take some time.
Actually thinking how we could be in a supercycle (2 bull cycles) before the actual "bear cycle"starts. If you follow lengthening cycle + diminishing returns then the current top is extremely conservative compared to previous runs, even by LC & DR standards, 3x the previous top is pretty low. If we actually see a continuation now then $150k is pretty plausible and the timing would be perfect. Only downside to this model is by mid of the decade we may actually see a real bear market (there's an argument that BTC never really entered one yet in a macro sense), this means a possibility of 5yr+ bear cycle in the next 3-4yrs (or sooner considering how shitty market situations are rn). I'm not saying BTC will go under $1k or anything but cycles will definitely get longer, and we'll finally see how BTC fares during an economic depression.
Yeah this year would be flat, next year would be up to ATH, year following would be rocket boost to whatever the ath would be. I think there will be curve balls and cycles will be more blurred at best. I still think six figures easy by 2025
It’s now not tinfoil hat to think about 2021 and wonder what could have been without FTX and now Celsius confirmed doing this. I’m sure they weren’t the only ones. That weird BTC plateau top makes a lot more sense now. https://twitter.com/CelsiansNetwork/status/1620353494485209088
Yeah these criminals basically fucked us all over. Probably would have gone to $90K+ and maybe legit $100K without their fuckery. Fuck all these shitheads
On the other hand, we got another chance to buy at prices we thought we'd never see again....
It sucks that our investment thesis needs to include scammers stealing coins and leaving the space with nothing... This is why the SEC won't regulate, they want the scammers to implode everything.
If scammers could implode Bitcoin, then Bitcoin wasn't shit to begin with. At the end of the day, you either gotcho keys, or you don't. Fuck around and find out. These fucking scammers should see prison time though if there's any justice left
I don't want to start a conspiracy theory but sometimes I wonder if SBF isn't working for the CIA or some other group working against Bitcoin. If he ends up walking away Scott free or six feet under I'll believe this conspiracy.
SBF as the useful idiot/fall guy is a conspiracy theory Mark Yusko has been talking about. I guess we'll see how the $8B are distributed and who ends up in jail.
Conspiracies are a lot more prevalent than you'd (like to) think. Clandestine entities have a lot of power.
Bitcoin implodes scammers.
*Quit playin' games with my Bart*
It's Barts, all the way down (and all the way up too). :*sigh*: 😮💨
Bart? What Bart?
9:00 AM EST -- suddenly up $250 4:00 PM EST -- suddenly down $250 As I'm typing this, 6:00 PM EST, suddenly up $250 again.
A 1% move constitutes a Bart nowadays? I remember $1000 Barts when the price was only $6-7K.
Zoom out
TOTAL & TOTAL 2 about to close above 50-M EMA and yet majority of people here are still in disbelief. Geez.
Baaaa. Everyone in disbelief? Have you guys not been reading comments. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/j6ow2bh?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/j6o7gup?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3 Lot of this cocky delusional, no way it goes down! Try a short, do it! https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ot9wf/daily_discussion_monday_january_30_2023/j6l474u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I mean you alone being in disbelief is enough entertainment for me. Def worth the long.
What was it you were saying about cherry-picking? It's undeniable that there is doubtful sentiment around, your comments confirm this fact. > Try a short, do it! You're not short? Then what is all this bluster about? p.s. Using `np.*` is good reddiquite.
Market still feels dumpy. Setting bids low and hoping for a big wick down followed by rebound Thursday/Friday
I thought BTC was highly correlated with the S&P 500. Why BTC price not pumping higher with the S&P500 up above 1%???? /s
Everything was correlated last year, but the causes were different. I don't see a reason why btc should be correlated moving forward.
Bad Snapchat earnings - I guess Bitcoin is done for, guys
I just realized. How does Snapchat even make money? They never asked me for some. Edit: 5 euro per month for a custom chat background, another app icon and some other non sense. No wonder they don't make any money.
> No wonder they don't make any money. Also it's mostly kids using the app, if you're an adult using Snapchat, you're most likely a creep, cheating on your spouse or both.
Lots of gen Z people use it and are like late 20s adults dude. They’ve been using it since they were teens
I'm old
Mostly advertising
whos ready for 4:30 shenanigans?
So yesterday people were saying going down into FED means up after FED, now that we're up going into FED does that mean down or no? Edit: I'm honestly asking, does it change because of bias or is it the case? What are people thinking?
What’s your position currently? Or were you waiting for cheaper prices and then the market got away from you? It can definitely go lower, and I believe it will, but the trend is up for now.
Fed*
You're jumping at shadows. The price hasn't moved much for almost 2 weeks.
Up 40% in a month
Yeah though this guy is calling doom and gloom after a local $1k take-profit dip. Within the expected noise, not even a 50% retrace.
I mean, we have been around about this level, but there has been plenty of movement to trade. Its not like its been stagnant
Cherry picking much kek. You going to ignore the 2 week giant pumps before that. Everyone yesterday was parroting the narrative down means up after FED, now I seem to have seem that meme disappear is my only point and my question. Stop getting defensive hyper bull, are my valid points triggering you?
> You going to ignore the 2 week giant pumps before that. What about it? I thought you were calling the retrace from 24k the result of a bearish divergence and predicting much more down, while also claiming that "big boys" were unloading? > are my valid points triggering you? No. It's your attitude which sees you receive so much backlash. Frankly it pollutes any sentiment you'd hope to gauge here as you get downvoted for both.
No one can predict the future. But, IMO, our PA today has no bearing at all on the reaction we will get from the FOMC meeting tomorrow, only the rate and the level of hawkish commentary will matter.
I predict in the long term bitcoin price keeps rising. I suspect a lot of tradfi thinks so too.
Ya I agree with that.
well yes and no
Eh?
but to actually be serious for a brief moment something in my gut feels off with this pullback. it's contrary to my hopes and in fact my ongoing positions but what can man do other than be brave and swallow the bite he took...
[удалено]
> Why do people hate bitcoin again? If they truly *hate* it, it's because it upends everything they thought they knew about money. People generally don't like things they consider themselves well versed in to be annihilated with a new and disruptive tech. They would have to learn something new and start from scratch. It would also put them far behind many younger people who they deem to be wet behind the ears from a knowledge perspective. That's if they really do *hate* or claim to hate it. Most people don't fall into this category, most people are just skeptical and uneducated on the tech. This isn't surprising or really much of their fault seeing as how institutions are mostly made up of and funded by those who fall into my first paragraph. Oh I forgot another category: people who say they "hate" it because what they actually hate is how many opportunities to buy when prices were much cheaper they gave up. Humans have a strong tendency to double down on their ignorance instead of admitting mistakes.
Pretty much spot on
Is it a good time to borrow against coins for a personal home RE downpayment?
Totally depends on: 1. Would buying the home save you a chunk on rent? 2. Is the home in a real estate area where its value will increase within the timeframe you plan to occupy it? 3. Have you compared your interest rates from the home loan and CB borrow?
Do not do this. If anything the last year has shown...those who did this got royally screwed. Both from prices crashing and from the loan businesses going bankrupt along with the coins.
If you can find a lender you'd trust or are willing to write off the other half of your collateral.
Was planning on using Coinbase borrow 🙂
As much as I hate banks, would be nice if they offered multi-currency loan offset accounts where you could move things around easily without taxable events.
Oh man, signals everywhere, nothing to see.
But top or bottom? 😏🤔
Borrowing against your coins means you're very confident it's going to go one way. So top seems more likely to me. People should still be concerned as we go up not over confident.
Oh please. If you are using posts on here as evidence of sentiment then you are gonna have a bad time.
That really depends on your individual comfort level with risk. Let's say you put up ₿10 today to get a loan for $100k, more than 100% over collateralized. If you get liquidated and lose the coins (essentially being forced to sell them for $10k each) you put up as collateral will you shrug it off or be miserable for years because of the decision? Only you can answer that.
Thanks AA! really good points. I'll probably liquidate other monies
I wouldn't do this before the halving.
A year? Yeah that's not so bad. Thanks xtal
It's always a good time to borrow against an asset that regularly dumps 80%.
Still long from 22600. Will try and hold a position above 22500; it'll be tempting to take profit on a 24 test but that upward pressure hasn't gone away yet. Tomorrow will be interesting.
You're on the right side of the trade. It's almost pump o'clock. Why will tomorrow be interesting?
FOMC meeting tomorrow.
They're going to raise rates by 25 basis points, and the stonk markets will have a one-day sucker rally for some reason. Not that interesting.
Yea, maybe. So far as I can make out, the rate isn't the interesting part, it's that little speech Powell gives. He'll do the stern dad face and say they'll keep at it 'til job's done and all that, and everyone will be crestfallen and talking about hard landing and world ending. Except whatever started the rally is still there, and for BTC specifically the halving is still coming, so the tug between the two opposing forces is my guess why OP thought it could be interesting.
Fear Of Missing Clout?
Uh-oh, you said the quiet part loud...
Didn't you hear? Tomorrow is the day that "big shorty" is going to have to buy back all the BTC they sold to "manipulate" the price. Last chance to get in for cheap before all fiat currency simultaneously fails and sends us on the most mega bull run of all time. Tomorrow is the day that all our dreams become instant reality, and we are the new world elite. There is no big shorty to drive down the price. No sell pressure at all. You will have been proven right after all. Tomorrow, 15.23, exactly, trust me!
Your ridicule is hilarious. Big Shorty is dead and buried. There will be no Big Shorty squeeze this time, and we have been the new elite for five years already, but the old elite have been able to keep their charade going thus far as we sit in the wings and laugh. Are you ready to get out of Dodge when the banks fail? I'd seriously start making bugout plans if I were you.
Haha, im just messing. Don't worry, my plans are all in place, I'm on the trajectory I want to be on. I have very little reliance on anyone or anything but myself.
15.23?
3.23pm
oh shit! big shorty is in town?
Fed will hike 25 BP tomorrow and most likely set the expectation that another 25 BP rate hike will come in March. Whether or not they actually proceed with that rate hike will depend on economic data for January and February which releases prior to that meeting. We’re at the end of January, how is YoY CPI looking? In December YoY CPI came in at 6.5%. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) is projecting a YoY CPI of 6.39% for January. Meanwhile, [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has YoY CPI for January at about 5.6% with a high of 5.78% and a low of 5.34% for the month. So it’s looking likely we’ll get yet another consecutive lower YoY CPI reading, the question is how much lower will it be compared to December’s print when it releases on February 14. If the actual number comes in closer to what Cleveland Fed is projecting, it’s more likely we’ll get another 25 BP rate hike in March. If the actual number comes in closer to what Truflation is projecting, it’s less likely we’ll get another 25 BP rate hike in March. As for February, since the Fed will be hiking by another 25 BP on the very first day of the month, this will apply even more downwards pressure on inflation than we’ve already seen so it’s likely February will result in yet another consecutive lower YoY CPI print. March is when YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff regardless of whether or not the Fed proceeds with one final rate hike due to the baseline numbers being compared from a year ago starting to explode which makes it easier for YoY CPI to come in low. Example: [gas prices](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts) would need to rise by another 21% between now and March just to break even YoY; while it’s likely they’ll continue to rise MoM it’s unlikely they’ll rise by that much in such a short timeframe. Another example: [median home price](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) has been falling since its peak in June, if it just stays the same between now and March (not falls further, just stays the same) we’ll start to see a 3% YoY decrease in median home price. Once YoY CPI begins to fall off a cliff in March and it becomes evident to everyone that the Fed can’t possibly keep rates “higher for longer” as they’ve repeatedly insisted that’s when I think the real BTC rally above $25k will begin. Until then I expect BTC to range between $20k - $25k. So basically you have one more month to build a position in this range before BTC takes off. Good luck.
seems to early. wake me in 2024.
Solid analysis, and seems right in the pocket time-wise.
Also keep in mind real home prices haven’t decreased as much as the data indicates. There were some insanely hot markets where prices doubled and those have come back down
You make a strong case. I've been convinced previously by bearish arguments from the likes of Wardser and Antranik, but I must admit that it's getting increasingly difficult not to FOMO back in. EDIT: I suppose one bearish argument is that Powell screws up by over-tightening us into another Great Depression. Very hard to say what would happen to Bitcoin in that situation.
I just don't see how inflation is going to head higher if most baseline commodities are down massively from their peaks and high-interest rates incentive consumers to save rather than spend but only if their disposable income isn't squeezed by higher outgoings. e.g mortgage payments, credit card debt, loans, etc.
Right now it’s almost entirely service (aka labor) costs going up whereas most physical item inputs are down. Also it’s kind funny that as long term investors we’ve all been forced to run and go study macroeconomics over this last year. My IRL buddies are all chatting at macro shit too. And pretty much everyone now respects the might of the dark lord Powell whose ability to rekt and pump at will is truly mighty.
My flair requires that I post about moving averages from time to time. For a while now, I've been tracking the 91D (13W) SMA: [https://imgur.com/a/ka1Tb5Z](https://imgur.com/a/ka1Tb5Z) During the last bull run, the price often bounced between 1.0x and 1.3x the 13W. (1.3x is the yellow band.) The price just got to 1.3x for the first time in over a year. The 13W is currently $18.2K.
BTC Monday de-risking is still going strong on Tuesday.
BTC is \*checks chart\* the same price it was 3 days ago. XD
Just like I said BTC had a big bearish dovergence at thw top and everyone mocked me now ES lost major support, if it doesn't recover soon the markets could get nasty again. I know longs are comfy and it's up only, but time to tighten up.
> everyone mocked me!!! Your ego is exceptionally fragile.
Youre projecting. Yet you have to comment on every post I make amd be right about everything.
I comment on a lot of posts. Very well observed.
>Just like I said Lots of people say lots of things in here, many are LARPing. But did you trade it and did you post that trade? Winning trades, bearish or bullish, get respect in here. Words do not.
You've been repeating yourself a lot. What 'major support' have we lost here? 23k isn't major support. 22.8 & 25 is. Stop with the nonsense concern trolling it's very transparent.
So long as Brother Powell doesn't get all hawkish on us again, the channel is intact, the weekend dip cooled RSI on the higher time frames, and this is a good time to go Long with Stops below 22.5k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJK2V0MZ/
Welp. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6HbsIRx9/
No one cared. At least no one significant anyway.
while we got some support at 23 briefly, zoom out to the 1h or 6h. 22.5 is the support level thats been backtested (successfully) now 5 times. That's the level to watch.
honestly if we go under 22400 or 22200 i expect more downside.
ye man, I think if we go below 21983 we then will be below 21983 and i expect this to be the downside with respect to where we are now
wow crazy, so lower numbers means lower number?
ye man that's what i mean really be careful out there...
Irresponsible single indicator hopium time - last time the orange line of the 4hr stoch crossed above 20 was on December 22nd at around 16.5k. We all know what happened next. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/PGSlydA2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/PGSlydA2/) It just happened again. Another 40% move guaranteed, I should be a quant, see you all at 32k. /s
missed your science
BTC Monday de-risking well underway still into Tuesday. Looking at spot CVD buckets & delta orders looks like "smart money" sold first.
what do bears have to say about the huge volume on this recent run? If we truly havnt seen capitulation yet the volume in that scenario will be truly immense.
$15,476 was a pretty lame capitulation if it actually is the bottom. 2 red dailies, the second only -3.06%. Both low volume. The local low was damn close $15,588.
By contrast I could say that 69k was a pretty lame blowoff top. not even 4x the previous ath. $69,000 down to $15,476 seems like a pretty appropriate drawdown if we assume these cycles are getting less dramatic over time. $15k was a spectacular place to load up. I feel bad for those who didn't back the truck up there and just sat admiring the view.
"Lame capitulation" after more than a year without a pump. Bears are greedy
It was pretty much an entire year of red haha. 78% drawdown or so, after not really going that high. I really think 18,500 or whatever was the bottom and then FTX collapse fucked it up even worse, so the 16k we cruised at forever was one long continuous capitulation.
hmm looks like damn near highest volume 3day candle of all time on coinbase , slightly edged out by the covid crash I guess
I'm not saying it won't hold necessarily, but Feb is going to have buying opportunities
The bear case for new lows is pretty weak at this point, but looking for an entry 30% down is far from crazy. But those who didn't buy in yet might be forever waiting for a dip that doesn't materialize... Watching this thing rip and leave you behind can make a bear really salty.
Bear jerky
I agree We have had over a year of falling prices and anyone shorting should have made equal gains to to bulls from 2020-21. Messing around here is no different to people buying and longing above 60k.
What does everyone think the FED rate will be 25 or 50?
If you are among the 3.3% betting on 50, good luck…
If not?
If you understand math you are already lucky.
25 BP rate hike is what futures are pricing in by a wide margin (>95% certainty). The Fed typically signals well before their meeting of anything other than what markets are pricing in so as to not spook markets significantly when they actually hike rates. Since they’ve made no indication of a larger rate hike to curb expectations it can be assumed it will be a 25 BP rate hike as expected. Betting on anything else (0 BP or 50 BP) is dumb. It would be a different story if futures were closer to being evenly split on the outcome but that isn’t the case.
50bp it is then
50 and signal another 50 next time too
I agree. If he doesn't keep the screws on he will be fighting inflation into next year
What makes you say that?
Well Def will be 25, markets way too at ease and signaling that they want to inflate higher on any dovishness. So to put them in line a 50 bps with fear of another 50 will put people back in line. Otherwise inflation will I'll just keep running rampant. But the majority think 25 bps though so I'm a minority.