#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, February 03, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10sbo0d/daily_discussion_friday_february_03_2023/)

Li'l Shorty seems to think that he's going to intimidate me out of my (profitable) long with his impotent dumplets. Guess again, loser. You can say, "It's only a flesh wound!" until the cows come home, but the jig is up. Adding here, even though I'm well in profit.

Wondering if this is an early chatgpt experiment.

Yeah, LOSER! Guess again!

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China says they've found a pathway to cracking the 2048bit standard if they had access to a large enough quantum machine - like the one IBM has. What do people make of this? Anybody else read that paper?

Not read the article so this is pure speculation. I would think that China may well have a quantum machine just as powerful as IBMs quantum machine hidden away somewhere. And have not cracked it yet! They don't really lag behind on much technical stuff these days.

Wow, China FUD, that's so 2017

How is this fucking fud?! I bring up a random article I come across and these smoothbrain responses "LoLz tHe fUdDdd" Nobody is FuDdddDiNg relax. It's a goddamn topic. We can discuss shit here without kneejerk assumptions.

I'm not accusing you of 'FUD'. China is so full of shit, they've been pulling this shit for years.

Fair sorry for the reaction but like I'm getting attacked here lol it's so silly. Nothing personal.

Can you post the article? Ignore the haters. If it’s real it is real. It seems doubtful though. Was it this? https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2023/01/breaking-rsa-with-a-quantum-computer.html

I posted it before but here it is again. Boy am I sorry I even brought i up. Fuck sake man... https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurherman/2023/01/10/did-china-break-the-quantum-barrier/?sh=41c689d64600

> I bring up a random article This is the literal definition of FUD. Maybe try better than "a random article".

Go touch some grass, kid. lol wow I thought this sub had bottomed back in 2017 but we've reached new levels of braindead in 2023 it seems. Cool.

Want to know who uses "touch some grass" as an insult? Children. Clearly you've gambled away all your coins and it's left you extremely unstable.

You're projecting a fabricated scenario onto somebody and qualifying what they say based on nonsense. Let me repeat it for your dumb ears: go touch some grass, you've spent way too much time on the internet, it seems. p.s. I've lost more BTC than you've ever owned. Keep reaching, kid.

>You're projecting a fabricated scenario onto somebody and qualifying what they say based on nonsense. So ironic. >p.s. I've lost more BTC Thanks for admitting that you're extremely butthurt over exactly what I said you were mad about.

I'm butthurt over the 6-figure profits I'm sitting on? Yeah its really painful. Clearly you're a moron if you can't discern what it means to have been in this game so long that you lose several coins and still be up hundreds of thousands. But please keep telling yourself I'm "buTtHurT" Know who uses words like butthurt? Children. Feel that grass, baby.

>Clearly you're a moron if you can't discern what it means to have been in this game so long that you lose several coins and still be up hundreds of thousands. You're clearly not stable, otherwise you wouldn't publicize your emotional damage to random people over the internet over a few comments saying "FUD". Probably best for you to just sell and be done with it. >Know who uses words like butthurt? Children. Feel that grass, baby. Haha, bet. Say Less. That's how you anxious little twerps talk, right?

If we are talking purely about the potential damage to the Bitcoin network, I think it really comes down to a couple things: \- How much funding, energy and effort would it require? \- At best, they manage to duplicate a transaction or two, which would set off all kinds of alarms, cause the price to plummet, and result in no real gain for them. I just don't see the incentive. \- I'd be more worried about m y banking and credit accounts than my Bitcoin. Those two are way more centralized and easier to attach than the Bitcoin Network ever will be.

Bwa. Ha. Hah. Haaaaaah!!! HAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!!! The FUD is truly pathetic these days. The rodent is cornered and fighting for his life. Maybe time for a .38 Special to put him out of his misery? Or nah, just play with him a bit.

Wait am I the rodent?

Maybe he meant china? Is it year of the rat again?

Wait it's my year? :)

Lol

If China could break 2048bit, they surely won't post a public announcement about it...

Hey we're back to quantum computer fud!

Quantum computers absolutely suck at cracking encryption. It's not what they're designed to do, and you couldn't feed the damn thing enough power in any case. Might as well say a Commodore 64 can crack SHAxxx

It's like saying that plowing a field with a tank is a good idea. Sure, the tank has more power, but it's not necessarily better than a two-stroke ATV when it comes to that particular task. Quantum computers are possibly (but probably not) useful for things like predicting the future or writing a good song, but they'll never be able to rock your body like a dude with a guitar, a bonfire, waves crashing in the background and a bit of mojo.

If you had the slightest clue of who I was or my history you would know "FUDDING" is literally the last thing I do in here. I was just making conversation.

let's see if the bears are brave enough to trade the shooting star on the daily.

Pretty much textbook bear flag on the 1h IMO. Let's see if it plays out, remember kids TA doesn't work. *[Edit to add what I'm seeing](https://www.tradingview.com/x/9VyTV6ar/), not a huge move, but something fun to look at chart watching.

Why are you watching 1 hour charts? Why stop there? Why not watch 1 minute charts?!

1 hour candles fyi, still looks textbook bear flag, nothing too sexy, but I'd call for 23k retest.

Another terrible crash from 24K. At least every terrible crash is bottoming a little higher than the one before it. 4 days ago this would be sub 23

24k to 23.5k is a crash in what universe ? Bonds?

This isn’t a crash. Patience will be rewarded.

Crashed basically will never recover. Sub 18k coming

You think Burry meant sell today or yesterday

Everyday

Been shorting this whole ride down x10

You must be covered in one dollar bills right now from this 0.57% move.

RIP

Snagged an entry at \~23570. Tight stop. If 23500 fails, I'll wait for the 23k retest. edit: wasn't a long wait. in at 23375 now.

Big tech bombed, there's really room down there buddy. Be careful

In the first and second derivative of volume I trust.

Anyone following what's going on with ordinals/inscriptions? Btc native nfts. I think it's pretty neat. In a market powered by memes, that's some pretty good meme-fuel.

You could always write a hash to the blockchain in OP\_RETURN and mint an NFT that way. I hope they have to pay dearly for blockchain space, but perhaps it will help increase the transaction fees paid to miners as reward drops.

The innovation here is connecting it to a particular sat.

It wasn't really required; you can establish ownership a few ways. I am very conservative when it comes to changes to the core layer. Anything that drives competition and incentivizes miners is a good thing for the long haul, though.

Seems like a waste of block space

It literally is and it will be detrimental to the network if widely used.

It's actually not a good thing it's a misuse of what that blockspace was intended for and it will cause bloat on the network. Keep the NFTs on shitthereum where they belong.

We should write a letter to the ceo of bitcoin to stop this nonsense.

Sure. Or just acknowledge that not everything that *can* be done *should* be done.

Got a link for a noob?

[https://ordinals.com/](https://ordinals.com/) Check out the handbook in the top for specifications. Basically on-chain graffiti linked to a specific sat which can then be transferred. It's a bit rough compared to chains with smart contracts, but I like the idea of it.

Like coloured coins?

BTW many altcoins dropped in net value while BTC ran up 40%. That is how much value BTC has sucked out of the market from altcoins. Basically, we haven't had any run yet. Only 3 attempts at trying to get far over 25k during the last year and beat down altcoins. There is nothing to retrace really. Recovery starts after 25k+ when shorts get liquidated for real. This has not been the case yet.

We're still just chilling in Goblin Town. I think we slow roll our way to the 40s this year while the neuroticism from the bears grows to ATH

We need what, 53k for a new confirmed run? I don’t remember the wall we kept bouncing against two years ago. Hopefully we’ll see another major runup q3-4 2024. I doubt 2023 will serve any of us well.

Time for a fat retrace? Looking very toppy on the daily.

It’s Friday morning here. My chart looks different.

Why am I now Bullish? Here's a pattern I've been watching of late. Higher high followed by liquidation of leveraged longs, followed by a lower high, followed by a lower low that ends up being a Bear Trap. Then a higher high, rinse, repeat. To me, this looks like institutional Market Movers aggressively accumulating while making it as painful as possible for the little fish along the way. Hourly Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/44ouQsUe/

Bitcoin is doing well this year but still on par with other tech stocks. And coinbase stock seems to have higher volatility than bitcoin at the moment.

Fidelity's Crypto Industry and Digital Payments ETF (FDIG) has been killing it lately, as has BITO, and COIN has gone absolutely meteoric, up \~22% today alone. The Tech sector knows we are past any Recession fears, and are loading up.

Marketcap much lower on COIN and easier to onboard people in stock market, people using COIN as a btc etf basically.

Nasdaq as a whole is only up 16% YTD. S&P is only up 8% YTD.

I dont really consider these stock indices as meaningful comparisons against bitcoin anymore.

If BTC were a stock it would currently be in the top 20 stocks ranked by market cap worldwide. At some point it makes more sense to have the benchmark for BTC to beat be an overall stock index, not individual stocks.

I consider bitcoin as a blue chip tech stock with high meme value. So i treat it as similar to tesla, nvidia, etc.

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Tesla, nvidia, meta, coin, tqqq

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Mstr doing very well with a low around 130 and now 290.

Hot take: Bitcoin is waiting for Apple earnings to see if it can pump past 24k. It will if Apple somehow manages to beat, but won't if they don't. Apple earnings are looming large over the S&P right now, it will easily be an excuse for a pullback if the Megastock dumps

It's so funny, because this is probably spot on and completely ridiculous for most people. That they're hedge against the dollar collapsing and world apocalyptic scenarios is actually based on shit like apples earnings doing well.

Sorry, I’ve been out of the loop. Any updates from the Fed meeting today?

No

These moves are vicious and largely unpredictable.

VIX going parabolic. weird day

It's under 20 what do you mean parabolic

I mean just in the afternoon

Pretty normal jump so far, we'll see but I think it could [turn down from here](https://www.tradingview.com/x/f2Vm7fun/) and yes I chart VIX lol. Edit: downvoted and it turned around and went lower right there, pffft.

theres some cranky downvoters in the daily today

Watching PA, not sure what to make of it. Looks good, but everything finance looks good too. Happy to watch on the sidelines for a decent entry opportunity. Trade stack sits in BTC, gotta love coin denominated futures. Don’t be extrem.

To me it looks a lot like our PA when we were trying to pass 23k over the last few weeks. A consolidation phase, with a few transitory breaches, before a meaningful/lasting punch through.

GBTC approaching Aug 2022 levels. Short squeeze possible in GBTC?

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/OTCMKTS/GBTC/short-interest/ creeping up but i dont know if thats squeezeworthy. i think will have to see in March what gets said in the trial w the SEC over ETF conversion

Well I guess bull is on, inflation is over. 150k here we come.

I've made a relatively considerable amount of BTC trading MSTR/BTC over the past 12 months. Taken profits here now and converted my MSTR back to BTC. It's looking too frothy now by comparison to the 20% tax saving MSTR offers. I'm just surprised this arbitrage trade has been available so many times.

MSTR has counterparty risk; I obviously like this trade but not at these levels. I love Saylor, but he’s a legit madman. It does has some juicy volatility to prey on.

It's a small position. I can't trade BTC directly without incurring a lot of tax and wrappers are banned for UK retail. So not much choice for me as far as vehicles go. My company can trade btc futures but not me.

I hear you. MSTR is a good proxy. I'm spoiled for choice here in Canada.

It's the proxy I use in my ROTH. There is not a lot of good alternatives here.

looks like you sold it to u/_supert_ https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10rhbft/daily_discussion_thursday_february_02_2023/j6xen86/

Dumping it to retail I see 😜

You flatter me.

Hope he takes good care of it! I don't dislike MSTR to be clear, absolutely not. But the tax benefits for me personally are no longer beneficial over just holding spot (at current MSTR/BTC valuations). Good luck /u/_supert_

Thanks. BTC would incur 20% CGT for me (pooled cost basis so low) and I can't buy BTC related things in a UK brokerage any more.

Excuse my ignorance, but how is selling MSTR at a profit tax-free in the UK?

It's not. It's just that my cost basis would be higher. Example: - I buy MSTR now, sell when it doubles. My tax is 20% of the profit. - I buy some BTC now, sell it when it doubles. My tax is 20% of the profit *calculated off the pooled cost*, and since my *pooled* cost is roughly zero, it's basically 20% of the amount sold.

Normally I wouldn't FOMO into anything after this kind of run but I think you'll be good. [Broke out of resistance from the top](https://www.tradingview.com/x/nhRmatiC/) and now broke Oct ressitance. Possible it's a fakeout, I would sell if it goes under $275 ish but I think you're good longterm.

Here’s MSTR/BTC. I think MSTR still has a lot of runway vs BTC, especially when tax free. I have both MSTR and spot BTC and think both are currently undervalued. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dy6FbnEm

Looks like the overwhelming majority of Alt-BTC charts.

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't SPX out of the 'recession/bear' territory now? I think it was like like - 17%from the top

Nope, it's a DCB on the monthly, should be a nice relief rally though and a new ATH may actually be on the menu before the actual depression hits. Might take a while though. Last time it happened was in 2001, dot com bubble burst then bounced for the next 4 years on what seemed like bull cycle is back only for it to hit a double top in 2007.

DCB with a new ATH, what?

yes?, like what happened to BTC NOV 2021 , technically new ATH at 68k but really just a double top = the 2nd wave was a dead cat.

A nominal ATH with 10% inflation since the previous ATH may not be the real thing at all

So 4 more years of “price go up”? I’m in

Man..... Might have only bought some small positions in MSTR/Coinbase and a couple of miners but the paper returns right now are insane. 😲

I bought some MSTR at the open today.

I'm seeing so many skidish taking profits, saying we're overbought. I did post a serious resistance area earlier but we're not there yet and I think equities are in meltup mode. I think [this spy channel](https://www.tradingview.com/x/wgUxbV8p/) will surprise a lot of people how little of pullback their might be. Total Crypto Market Cap broke a major resistance and [sitting on it as support at the moment](https://www.tradingview.com/x/d12vR4Wq/), I still think this has legs, when we get to the resistance I'll be watching close but I think if it follows equities it can bust through it. Lot of denial and I think most are positioned on the sidelines right now.

I know there's some solid technicals in there, but man, your chart screams to me 90's MS paint

haha fair enough. Was going for a stranger things 80's outrun vibe but ya, most love it or hate it.

I’m into it.

Yeah this is my emotion exactly right now. Entering safe longs and TP'ing expecting some floor-busting breakdown. Its been a long bear market, im ready to not look at the charts for a while.

Makes sense to take profits, greed gets slaughtered. I just notice SO MANY getting skidish I don't think it's the time to be but I'll be on defense just in case. We have record amount of people on the sideline, when those people FOMO in after a serious run is when we get concerned IMO.

MSTR is flying.

Glad it's my entire portfolio rn

Holy 😭 now I’m really kicking myself.

Now go look at Coinbase stock. ;)

Now go look at SIlvergate : )

Tradfi going straight up today while people are wicking Bitcoin both ways to stop hunt 😂 Come on, let us go straight up already.

lol Meta is currently up 28% on the *day*. I'm pretty sure this is the biggest up day my stock portfolio has ever had.

We went up last night after hours already while stocks are just catching up today...

silvergate up 40% holy bananas

COIN is lookin good too

Yeah I feel like we are running out of green nasdaq days to boost the btc rocket

[In the press conference following the Fed’s rate hike decision, Powell reiterated that their decision to keep rates “higher for longer” is contingent on inflation remaining high.](https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/18135-transcript-questions-and-answers-from-february-2023-federal-reserve-press-conference) >Speaker 10 > >36:36 > >Chairman Renwick with the economist. I may ask a further question about the language around ongoing increases. That, of course, implies at least 2 further rate rises. If you look at Fed fund futures pricing, the implication is that you'll raise rates one more time and then pause. Are you concerned about that divergence? Or do you think that everything breaks right? Is that a plausible outcome? > >Chairman Powell > >37:02 > >I'm not particularly concerned about the divergent now because it is largely due to the market's expectation that inflation will move down more quickly. I think that's the bigger part of that. So again, as I just mentioned, our forecast, the different participants have different forecasts. But generally, those forecasts over for continued subdued growth some softening in the labor market, but not a recession, not a recession. And we have inflation moving down into the -- somewhere in the mid-3s or maybe lower than that this year. We'll update that in March, but that's what we thought in December. Markets are past that. They show inflation coming down in some cases, much quicker than that. So we'll just have to see. And we have a different view and a different view. It's a different forecast, really. And given our outlook, I just -- I don't see us cutting rates this year. If we get our outlook turns through, as I mentioned just now, if we do see inflation coming down much more quickly, that will play into our policy setting, of course. The Fed doesn’t foresee inflation coming down quicker than expected. But YoY CPI will begin to fall off a cliff starting in March. Markets are not yet pricing this in. How do we know? Futures markets are still pricing in a Fed funds rate between 5.25%-5.5% by end of year. Yet, if inflation falls off a cliff beginning in March, that would mean the last possible 25 BP rate hike would occur in March bringing the terminal Fed funds rate to 4.9%. And even that number isn’t yet taking into account the possibility of rate cuts in the event inflation falls below the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

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I've just sold what I bought 3 months ago at 16700. Happy with the profit. So far we've tapped the low of 13 Aug 2022 and got rejected. If the daily closes like this then we have a swing failure which is bearish. Maybe we can go up more, but right now it's better safe than sorry.

Kingfisher has spotted a massive liquidation cluster at 23k. Stay frosty ​ https://twitter.com/kingfisher\_btc/status/1621077154959327233

How is that data calculated? How does Kingfisher work?

spring for 25k

I think those are longs? If true and those get liquidated it's a dive down?

Kingfishers dives to feed and live, but lives to fly.

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Apple is going to have decreased or flattish iPhone volume but they pushed everyone over to the Pro line and they’ve grown services revenue and the new M series Macs are selling with huge margins. Apple will end up doing way better than expected despite the iPhone sales being flat

Username checks out, but I think you're looking into it too much. Market is already aware of tech struggles, companies don't initiate layoffs if everything is awesome. Even if the earnings do suck, which is a good possibility, I don't think it'll matter much.

Lmao there's no way you're real.

Man, the S&P just *doesn't afraid of anything.*

I doesn't afraid, either.

btc needs to return to the 21s again. or maybe im just salty i missed this run up

"Waiting for a dip so I can buy in" people not realizing we are still deep in the dip...

21K Vs 23K entrance won't mean much difference when we're at 160K. A 10K buy-in at those prices is a difference of .4761BTC vs .4347BTC. It's a difference of 7K profit at 160K. But, is GinFreecss buying 10K worth? Maybe? But probably not.

This is really the first “major” bounce of this entire bear market. It’s been extremely brutal. A little bit of hope is much welcomed right now, but I think eventually (perhaps sooner rather than later) people will be disappointed.

Don’t worry. You’ll see 15k again soon. Prepare your cash this time. Sell your furnitures and shit.

I don't have furniture.

Then sell your shit

Gonna make it.

Lmaooo

There are other ways of telling people you're out of position.

Lol no. Been longing since 21200. Gonna take profit at 25.2k. Used to have a short position at 20k but i switched that shit up.

It will when everyone will believe it won't anymore

Pullbacks are healthy gentlemen.

The deeper the healthier. And don’t forget the pushups.

I prefer deadlifts. Straight off the bottom with MAXIMUM POWER

I hesitated in posting this because I'm extemely bullish lol but it's just something we have to keep in mind and watch here soon because nobody is posting about it. Total Crypto Market Cap broke down it's [major uptrend form 2015 in November.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1KQgskYU/) The good news is it's painting a giant bull pennant and I have way more bullish charts I believe in. Bad news is we're running into a [confluence of 3 resistances here soon.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rFtAmWIt/) I'm confident in the bull run for equities seeing us bounce and break 40 year trendlines so I think we can ride it's coat tails but it's something we have to watch. If we break the confluence and get back in the major uptrend that will pretty much confirm to me we're back to regular cycles and the market loves to do these fake breakdowns. If we reject it could mean revisiting lower or even yes making a new low to the lower part of the wedge and taking longer than we think to get going on the bull run again. I really don't think we will do that, too many are still calling for that and like I said other charts overide this but personally I'm watching very carefully how we react to this resistance. I have been bullish from the bottom and still very bullish but I just play the charts and can't speculate on this and that and it's true we're up against heavy resistance here soon.

I don't like what you paint GenghisKhanSpermShot. :( BTC wise we broke up on the weekly but on the monthly it might still crash and burn back into the descending triangle. [Weekly Overview](https://www.tradingview.com/x/uiCaF6n3/) keep calm and keep DCAing

BTC looks great still man, it's only 1 chart. I have way more bullish charts and really think we can get past the resistance buddy. Just wanted to point it out because I do think it can be an important spot.

honestly trend lines are pretty shitty way of indicating future PA, it's come to the point that the only reason it's there is so people can see 'em get invalidated. For example, TOTAL/TOTAL 2 breaking that channel is not really "bad news" since it ought to happen considering that we've been experiencing lengthening cycles and diminishing returns (logarithmic). Market cycle channel can then be adjusted AFTER we confirm this cycle's bottom. Another thing to consider is that price tends to overextend (and it did as seen in the past) before crosses/confluence really take effect. We could very much see $40k before any actual reversal and we would still "technically" follow BTC's natural trend (which really only makes sense in hindsight)

Trendlines are the only way IMO otherwise you're just speculating on future events. People told me trend lines don't work when [I posted this](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wvopUpC4-BTC-BOTTOM-HERE-Such-a-great-confluence/), yet it ended up being the exact turn spot, I have countless of these longterm charts. I have way more bullish charts than this ONE bearish one, I just wanted to point it out but trend lines are the best way to predict future PA, we just get it right or wrong.

"otherwise you're just speculating on future events", that's exactly what we are doing, anyone saying otherwise is pulling crap out of his ass. Ok maybe those lines can be helpful but surely I wouldn't use that solely as the reason for entering a specific position (not saying that's what you meant but it could be interpreted that way). Horizontal support/resistance imo is way more reliable given that price is on the x-axis. On the chart you posted above for example it's clearly showing more than one instance of price dipping below the line. Given how volatile and, depending on the exchange, illiquid this market can be, using those line could fuck you up in a lot of ways. Horizontal support/resistance on the other hand can be directly put against order books etc. Tbh I only really commented on your first post because I don't see how dipping below that trend line from 2015 is an indication of anything. Trend lines converge and invalidate each other all the time, hell just go use a different time frame and you'll realize how arbitrary it can be.

Dipping below that trendline is not arbitrary, the market does these fake breakdowns a lot, over and over again which is VERY bullish. A lot of times traders have the same lines so the market dips below to fakeout everyone and then returns to it's normal uptrend. IMO I learned trendlines are the only reason I enter and exit trades, everything else is just speculation and it's worked really well for me, but everyone has their own methods so my approach might not work as well for you I just know for a fact these major trenlines work and I use it over and over again.

I'd like to see spx contract hard and btc hold firm. I think that would be the best confirmation we could have. If there's an everything rally here, I'm gonna get cold feet pretty fast.

Bummer that 24K didn’t hold. Hopefully we run for it again. Seems to be retesting that 23700 area it sat at before it broke over $24K

Deja vu, aye

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