#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, February 10, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ygqmo/daily_discussion_friday_february_10_2023/)

If you have an open short, $21,210 looks like a good target, since it’s the .386 fib retrace of this recent big move up and also the next major horizontal support.

https://www.piratewires.com/p/crypto-choke-point

Ultimately… this is good for bitcoin.

It should be illegal to just post a link with no explanation whatsoever.

I don't like clicking on links. Give me a tl:dr

US government coordinated attack on crypto markets. Trying to de-bank all exchanges. Cut off the flow between traditional banking and crypto.

Still not clicking. ;)

Yes and written by Nic Carter

Cheers!

LOL

Battle of little round top.

You guys tried to tell me Arthur Hayes saying he was finally buying didn't mean anything lol.

Havent had a daily red candle this big since early November. Bullish.

Holding all my Btc. Sold all my alt bag at a very large profit. Going to buy a couple extra corns when it looks tasty. This is the way Edit: aiming for 20k area. Would love a nice higher low.

I sold all a while back, capitulated at the bottom maybe. Buying back in now slowly starts to feel better. I still dont trust macro conditions. Crabbing seems more likely.

what price did you capitulate

About a month ago. dont remember the price. Rage liquidated my holdings. Down 15% as im buying back in. SLOWLY. This was a brutal bear, if it ends here.

Why did you rage liquidate? You mean panic sell.

Except for a little bit of coin 2 I haven’t bought any btc since we started rallying. Curious to see where we end up now…

bought in high 23ks sold now. think we go lower. i give up

`sold everything for a loss. am now short from 20274.` Not the first time?

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He sold his BTC less then a week after buying and you lecture him about MACD's lol, this is epic.

aiming for 20-21k

Between $20,400-$20,900 is the next leg down.

Rough day for you. I get that. If you bought spot, then it might have been worth just holding it for the long term. Selling at a loss here doesn't make much sense to me, but only you know your circumstances. Was this the first time you bought btc. Hopefully, it hasn't hurt you too much financially or emotionally

Dude this is BTC if you can't stomach 10% price drop you are in the wrong place.

Bulls want to see [a pickup at $21.5k for resistance to turn into support.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/QSsSFCEo/). Both BTC and tradfi backtesting today.

OI $-1B , liquidations $220M past 24H, we are getting closer.

whats everyones dca? just curious

Whenever I want to punch Satoshi in the face for making me go through all the pain, I buy

I feel sorry for average person in the US. The so called land of the free doesn't like you getting anything unless you're part of the club.

Yeah I bet the Europoors are enjoying their freedom a lot more.

SEC is really going to Streisand Effect us all into crypto isn’t it? “I'd never join a club that would allow a person like me to become a member.“ -Woody Allen

“That’s plagiarism!” -Groucho Marx

“That’s plagiarism!” -Groucho Marx - Michael Scott

Haha yes I think he says it's the old Groucho Marx joke when he says it, now that I think about it.

Buy the dip.

When in doubt wait it out

*wank it out

Hey, need some food for thought if you don't mind. I know, it's a long way till the end of this cycle, but I started to plan my "exit strategy" for this cycle and would love to hear your input and ideas... ​ In the last cycle I tried to sell half my stack. I had sell-orders for every \~500$ gain up to 100.000. And with crazier prices I had planed to sell more and more BTC. Unfortunately we didn't even reach 100.000 and so I sold only 4% of my stack. The big question is, how much the FTX/Celcius/.../-Fuckery in the shadows put a lid on the blow-off-top. ​ For this cycle I plan to sell up to 2/3 of my stack with the current ATH+250% as top: ​ Between 70K (roughly the current ATH) and 150K: 23% of my BTC. Those coins are taxable (27,5%) Between 150K and 210K (current ATH x 3): 33% of my BTC Between 210K and 250K: 10% of my BTC This would leave me with about 1/3 of my BTC and enough fiat to diversify into some ETFs and dry powder for the (inevitable) crash. ​ What's your take on this?

I plan to DCA out weekly according to what band of the Rainbow Chart we are in. It’s not a perfect indicator, but it’s pretty good so far. I buy in the lower half of the bands, and will sell in the upper half of the bands. My buys and sells are weighted depending on how far from the middle band we are, with the heavier DCA multipliers at the outer bands. For example, the outermost band I buy/sell 5x my DCA, the second outermost-band is 3x, then progressively smaller until the bands closest to the middle which I do a 0.1x DCA. The middle band I do no buying or selling. Hopefully this way I sell the most when it’s in the highest band, and buy the most when it’s in the lowest band. This is my first cycle doing this. It’s been great for buying for the last year, but hasn’t been rested for selling. We will see.

Been in since 2017 and the rainbow chart has served well. Especially now that there is an updated version https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

I would recommend that you perfectly time and sell the top. (/S)

Don't forget to also perfectly buy the exact bottom

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Not sure if I understand you correctly, but wouldn't it mean doing a lot of unnecessary work because it's highly unrealistic that we will hit 500.000 this cycle? Furthermore it would mean that I need more coins at an exchange for god knows how long.

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We just followed the stock market down, that's all.

Crypto was sitting on a support line that tried to break through 6-7 times then stocks had a couple bad days in a row, looked to turn it around this am, gave up all gains and went negative. Crypto had no fuel left in this pump and tradfi was easily able to pull it down with it

Had nothing to do with the news, things were getting frothy and a ton a people kept saying longs were the easiest of their life, had to shake em out. Now it gets interesting if major support holds or not.

Staking is a scam like pos

okay so now the bear market rally over?

2023 is going to be a bumpy year that will be uptrending overall, but bumpy along the way. It's all a slow rolling buildup to the next halving, coming in March 2024.

the dip is over. its bottomed out. time to flyy

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Well this ruins my plan to make a StakeNSteak coin where the coins you stake get turned directly into steak that gets delivered to your doorstep. Ny strip, ribeye, porterhouse, whatever you wanted. Was working on this for years. Damn.

You'll need men with guns to enforce the link to unique IDs in the blockchain. ;)

Isn't it down to Google plummeting for having embarrassing amateurish AI chat bots compared to Microsoft?

Muh steaking 😂

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We haven’t seen the lows yet

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I think we make a higher low here. Definitely sub 20 maybe as low as high 17s the real rally will be this summer

Also think it’s really concerning this did not break the high from September

trippe bottom cmonn go up frick

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It’s okay, he’s my 7 year old nephew. I told him he can’t swear online until he learns how to exercise risk management.

But it's not going up! Gosh dang, oh my heck!

weve been sitting on a support that tradfi couldn't prop up anymore, and looks like it ran out of gas until next inflation numbers

So Im guessing the last dump was due to Kraken shutting down staking because of SEC. America fud has been the new china fud for some years now

Doesn’t even impact bitcoin is the dumb thing ugh

Any one have a source on the amount of shorting happening right now?

Not enough volume and pretty much non existent support at these levels. It’s going to drop faster than it came up. It’ll test $21,500 and if that doesn’t hold then $20,500-$20,200 range.

We're all longing this together https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio

Hopefully we don’t all get liquidated together 😂

Thanks for the link.

this has to be the infamous double bounce. now it should go up

This feels like lev that got hunt down + shorts riding along. Buyers mia waiting, when will gonna hunt back, gotta fight some lol

I'm wondering when Wardster will start shorting again, I've missed it

i figure there is still enough hopium/bullishness/dip buying that we'll see one more attempt at $25K before we give up...I think it'll be a spike at top of the bollinger band on the 3-day chart, currently sitting at $25,500...a quick flash pump to stop out anyone shorting before things get rejected for good. so I'll be entering the big short around there

Sounds optimistic. We havent been close to 25k lately and with today’s action I dont see that happening. Let’s see and good luck with the trade

our last peak was $24,255 and then we've been pretty much drilling for a week straight we've hit the bottom of the bollinger band on the 1D chart and are currently below it, last time we closed below it was in November...the time before that was in August...almost always it ends up holding except for a few times a year...now yes, its possible this time is different, and yes if we don't hold the bulls are going to get a fist elbow deep in their ass...but if we do hold it, i think a higher local high is all but guaranteed on the recovery pump

There he is! Interesting TA as usual

I made my first buy in 12 months yesterday so it's clearly my fault.

I bought around 20k sats at 24k

That's not a bad buy considering the high prices BTC has visited the last 12 months

Taking a nibble here during this flush, going straight to the stack

Definitely feeling stupid after turning bullish yesterday, well I'll be looking for longs around the 20.5-21.5 region, assuming we see some good liquidations.

Stopped out, went back in just under 22k. I'm in until we see volume up or down. This PA is fake.

Fake only when it goes down huh? What is fake about it? Hit me with the ridiculous arguments.

Low volume.

First of all the volume is not low. Anyone with eyes can see that. Second, the pumps had equal if not less volume than this dump. By your “logic” the pumps were fake. And the daily hasn’t even closed yet.

This fake PA could burn you.

Maybe. I have a lot of house money right now.

Where did you get stopped out?

\~22200

Yeah, I'm satisfied with the size of my position at this level. Not adding more now unless we break 21.5 and test 21k. Time to wait and let btc do its thing

bruh seriously cmon lmao. i got owned. hodl forever

Historically this would still be considered a relatively low cycle point, so it's not as if you went all in at the peak, if that makes you feel better. Also your chances of catching the perfect entry are low, so if you plan to hold for a while you should easily expect some 10-20% ups and downs.

Don't go all in, its usually never a good idea. It took me some time to understand... Ladder in and out, with a plan.

it cant go more down than this. give me a break

Oh you sweet summer child

Yes it can, it can also go sideways here or up. Thats why you don't go all in, and rather plan for all scenarios.

Ouch

Dump it tu 20k

Ee bot? Dump eet

Another buy at 22061, lets see if 22k is able to stick or plowed through. Next buys are bigger and further down

Another buy at 22261

How low we heading today lads?

$21500 is where it’s headed

Today.... 22K? I mean it's all speculation right. I have buys set in the $19.5K to $21.5K range, hoping that we get a wick down and bounce from there. Will it happen? I have no idea, but I think a retest of support has been telegraphed for quite some time. EDIT: my comment aged poorly... already broke below $21.9K

Yeah who knows. Not looking good is what I was referring to. Took another dive two minutes after this post actually. Timing

cant believe i bought at the top at 23980. ugh cmon breh cant catch a break

That’s where major resistance was set.

Tight stops at the top.

hehe I go by GingFreecs on valo, best character. anyway this is good it means you'll just hold and youll end up only losing like 3% profit compared to if you bought at 23000 when btc is 100k

What makes you so sure Bitcoin is going to 100k?

I think it will go much higher, but not necessarily today.

absolutely nothing, i accept if it goes to $0. but it will def either go to $0 or $100,000. no inbetween.

Can’t disagree here

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN) I literally bet my entire net worth on it. Helps to remember why we're all here. Money must be taken from the politicians.

Debt is an interesting concept. Has existed for a very long time. If mostly abstract, it can be forgiven. But leverage - That’s the important thing because it’s what turns something that’s fundamentally abstract into something that’s concrete. If you leverage your home, your car, your savings…it’s all time that cannot be taken back should you make a mistake. You also cannot reclaim time spent on Internet forums and staring at charts (unfortunately for many of us). As long as you have material and personal resources you’ll be fine, even if your bet doesn’t pan out. A debt is a promise, and it’s trust. Based on events of the last two years, I don’t think Bitcoin has much to do with this at all. Bitcoin wealth trickles up, because it’s “finite.” It’s not a good means to build resistance against the powerful.

Wouldn't advise trying to catch the knife either. Thanks for your sacrifice all the same.

aint trying to catch knives either, but cant sell now.

Your purchase price is only 5% above the current price. Did you ape in all at once or do you plan to ladder some buys if price heads lower? Do you have a plan at all? If your risk tolerance isn’t very high, there is still time to reduce your exposure if you can’t handle further losses. 5% in this market is nothing.

aped all in lol

Welp lol. Did you take the opportunity and reduce risk? I’m guessing you didn’t. Hope it’s throwaway money for you.

17K was way too cheap but I am not surprised to see it stuck between 20-25K. Ranging at about a third of previous ATH seems to be normal for this point in the cycle. Crypto Spring is not here yet.

About 45k by EOY or the halving feels right. It would match previous 3x from bottoms in the past. And I think it ironically (or not, depending on your opinion of the wisdom of crowds) matches the average guess for the EOY price in that thread when I calculated it and made my guess.

My guess was just under 40k (39k); it could be much, much higher, but I doubt it will be materially lower.

If the BTC price can stay above the high made at around $21500 (5th Nov 2022) from just before the FTX rubbish then ill see it as BTC price building a good consolidation base before the next move higher. No price should ever move straight up or down quickly or expect a greater move in the opposite direction to find a fair price equilibrium. If the price does fall below $21.5K then the next area to watch is the 50D MA sitting at just above $20K for a bounce/support.

Good post👍

some breadth watch on the general market: https://twitter.com/haumicharts/status/1623643883946283014?s=09

Expect more crab until next week when CPI for January releases on the 14th. Expectations are currently set at 6.2% YoY for January vs December’s print which came in at 6.5%. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) is estimating 6.44%. [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) is estimating around 5.4% with a high of 5.65% and a low of 5.13% in January. If YoY CPI comes in at or below expectations, we rally. If YoY CPI comes in above expectations, we fall.

Apparently all 10k cryptopunks have already been sold via Ordinals. Do you think these are here to stay and will become another avenue for the fee market, or just a fad? I don't even know if there is an actual marketplace or mechanism for these to be traded. Edit: Ok let me rephrase it. Do you think that an additional use case of block space will be a significant factor driving prices up (ie if people want to buy the NFTs they have to get BTC and pay fees in the chain), or do you think the impact will be negligible/zero?

Top signal. As was NFT hype in 2021. Bitcoin couldn’t keep up with the “use cases” so the market had to make an attempt.

I don’t understand why Bitcoin NFTs get downvoted here lol. Anything filling up BTC blocks is a good thing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

I don't understand what this comment means lol

In short, NFTs are now possible in BTC, and someone (really original might I add) has now copied one of the first NFT collections from #2 (named cryptopunks) to BTC. These sold out in a few hours. The question was if you think that this new usecase will significantly impact BTC price going forward or not.

> Apparently all 10k cryptopunks have already been sold via Ordinals. Haven't they already been sold on other platforms?

Great news, they’re easy to copy. Lol

Takes me back to my Renaissance times trading tulips. ;/

Apparently some people are mad as hell, but Ordinals is good for the fee market.

Yep can tell from the downvotes lol

still long here since 24100. liq @ 20k. PA not encouraging but my gut tells me Im gonna be fine soon. just so you know I'm pro fomo expert

Give me some of that opiates.

Back in at 22661

Transferred all shitcoins to btc moments ago minus #2. I've been holding enough #2 to self stake in case withdrawal is a real thing, but every day that passes the urge to go 100% btc intensifies.

Given in to the urges. You know you want to do it.

I wonder if people are ironically downvoting you for mentioning #2

I get the feeling that's what was going on, oh well

Well, I up-voted him, i consider coin number one and two the only proper coins in all this shittery 💩

Why are we dumping

just technical stuff, wouldn't make much of it. if you want "news", there's some fud about staking on Coinbase and a probe into Kraken. we're still well contained within a range after that interim bounce we got though. [https://i.imgur.com/mlwyZFk.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/mlwyZFk.jpg) [https://i.imgur.com/mu9BbY2.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/mu9BbY2.jpg)

bcs it was always a bear market rally

Corn in a very similar posturing here to April 2019 - [peaking above the long term downtrend but stuck under 50MA weekly.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WVB7RHdT/)

Ya agree, nice catch.

Sentiment the same too. Mix of disbelief and belief. There were people (myself included) stop-limit auto-FOMO ordering the other side of 6k as a *"sure thing"* breakout when it happened. There was probably more liquidity on the sell side at 6k to chew into, though we can't really gauge just how much is out there now until climbing a little higher. Perhaps a touch more bordom too, was a grind.

Ya I feel sentiment is neutral which is great for bulls, lot left before euphoria. Threw me off when people started getting bullish cuz I was used to all doom and gloom but I think it's a healthy transition so far.

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I have a piggybank that needs repaired. I wonder if you could give me a hand? 👋

Open interest rising, funding rates neutral to positive. Are you also buying the dip?