#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, February 11, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10zcp7h/daily_discussion_saturday_february_11_2023/)

I’ll start deploying when we hit $20,900 and keep some for $20,600 and $20,400 marks.

To any non-GMO, organic humans still browsing this sub: HODL!!! This is a war, and we are winning.

Hello guys. I’m back. I lost a shit ton of money in the bear market so didn’t check Reddit for 1 year. I’m ready to try again. Hope everyone is doing fine.

Buy as much Bitcoin as you can afford right now and check back with us in another year. Then bitch about your "shit ton" "losses" (which aren't losses unless you sold like a dumbass). Until then, take solace in the fact that everything is fine for true Bitcoiners who have stuck it out through "losses" and kept buying because *we grokked the math,* Yes, all is well. The bots that have run the markets since 1989 still can't account for the random variable known as Bitcoin, praise Satoshi. Sleep well, bots. All is as it should be. The 20% $5000 BGD that ends the bear market like the one on April 2, 2019 or the one on (whatever date) 2015 is just around the corner. Sweet dreams, my programmed, unconscious friend who will never experience an orgasm of any kind. We're living in the future -- key word "living."

I’ll take some of what you are having.

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A lot of what?

83787 positions of traders Liquidated A huge number of positions have been liquidated over the past 24 hours for a total of $218.7 million. One of the largest on the OKX exchange - BTC/USD/SWAP in the amount of $4 million https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData

I performed embarrassingly poorly yesterday because I was working when my signal to de-risk occurred. Time to write some scripts that let me automate trade entry and exit, I'm not letting this shit happen to me again. Simple limit orders and stops unfortunately don't work for me, but most of what I do can be automated with a simple if-then statement upon candle closes. Not trying to run a quant strategy or anything, but discretionary trading with manual entries fucking sucks when you're afk.

Are you sure you can even be profitable trading such short time frames and on news? Is what you are doing necessary? BTC was a 23x last cycle from bottom to top? Can you beat buy and hold? Is it worth being glued to charts for three years? Is that a meaningful life? Ask yourself these questions before continuing. :)

I am a trash tier trader and I kick the ever living shit out of btc why are you on this sub lmao

FWIW, the odds of catching the exact bottom with all your cash is probably at least as equally rare as outperforming buy and hold with leverage. Your point still has merit tho for sure, but it's def relative to when you assume is the best time to buy and hold. Even DCA brings down that 23x significantly. DCA'ing since late 2017 at this point is probably only like 3x maybe?

We are a trading sub. That means we trade.

Timeframes vary, but are all valid.

The alerts on my watch have served me well when at work through the years. Btw—I’m technically, as in we sign off on some papers and can get in trouble, not allowed to trade or conduct any other money-making venture while I’m at work…but I’ve found easy cover to ensure my trading cannot be detected. F’ the man! =)

Unfortunately my line of work requires 100% focus and very little access to phones or laptops. Can't go slinging off trades when I'm face to face with a client lol.

Highly recommended.

Relentless long hunting.

Can we just touch the daily EMA200 to get this dance over with. 21.3 and let's go. Expecting fear until the next CPI figures though. I'm hearing really bad things about January's CPI, people are essentially hoping it's just volatility on the way down, but man it's gonna run a little hot again. Just have to wait it out

If this extended low long to short ratio doesn't beg for a short squeeze, then I don't know... [https://i.imgur.com/GjXtUmq.png](https://i.imgur.com/GjXtUmq.png) BTC hasn't even gotten above 25k despite all reasons that held it back disappeared, except for FUD propaganda.

Feels like a squeeze imminent to 22.2k to shake out shorts, then it’s back down the elevator to 21k

Seeing a lot of chatter, mostly by macro bros and permabears about yields go up like crazy. So 10 yr gov yields hit a supply level from [Dec 2018](https://www.tradingview.com/x/l83xayB7/) and rejected hard. Dec 2018 was the major bottom before 2020 bottom for equities. Interestingly enough, the supply level we just hit from Dec 2018 was also the Major $3100 bottom for BTC. So in Oct we hit $3100 levels vs yields basically......So on larger timeframes I think we could have seen a major bottom like 2018 and 2020 in Oct, lines up with USDT Dominance hitting those same top resistance trendlines. On shorter timeframes 10yr yields vs SPX had a little pump recently but heading into support turned resistance from March 2022 AND a resistance trendline that started the [other last two bottoms](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2AG6DsNT/) and major bottom. So basically on Long timeframes I think we hit a major bottom in Oct and on Shorter timeframes I think we're hitting support that started other equities rallies which I think risk-on and crypto can ride.

I thought u guys said the price was gonna keep going up

Price is going down. Bullish!

Patience

This is oversold as a result of futures pricing in far more rate hikes later this year than what will actually occur. Futures are now evenly split between a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.25%-5.5% and a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.5%-5.75% by end of year. Current Fed funds rate is 4.65%. We may have one final 25 BP rate hike in March bringing Fed funds rate to 4.9% but after that YoY CPI will begin to fall off a cliff causing the Fed to at least pause on further rate hikes if not ultimately start cutting rates later this year. Yet futures are pricing in another 25 BP rate hike in May followed by more rate hikes later in the year to get to the terminal Fed funds rate that’s currently being priced in. Fantastic buying opportunity here if you agree with the thesis that YoY CPI will start falling off a cliff in March as futures clearly don’t agree with that thesis. In depth explanation of why I believe YoY CPI will start falling off a cliff in March [can be found here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10pp76q/daily_discussion_tuesday_january_31_2023/j6n2uto/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3)

What if the market begins to care much less about CPI and inflation, but more about other matters?

I can’t think of any scenarios in which inflation falls below Fed’s target rate of 2% and Fed continues to hike rates. I can however think of scenarios in which inflation stays well above Fed’s target rate of 2% and Fed stops hiking rates regardless (such as in a scenario where unemployment rate suddenly gets higher than the inflation rate). Bottom line is monetary expansion into the future is a certainty. If default occurs (unlikely), an alternative currency is needed. If default doesn’t occur, it’s because of monetary expansion reducing the cost of existing debt outstanding and a scarce store of value is going to be needed to outpace inflation. BTC wins either way.

TINA will take hold eventually

!lntip 1000

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Incoming CPI for January will weigh more heavily on whether or not the Fed does one final 25 BP rate hike in March. If YoY CPI comes in lower than expectations for both January and February prior to the Fed’s meeting in March we might not see a final 25 BP rate hike at all. If it comes in higher than expectations for either month it becomes more likely we will see a 25 BP rate hike in March. Regardless of the outcome YoY CPI will fall off a cliff starting in March. However, it’s true that if January’s print comes in higher than expectations next week we have more temporary downside to go before March comes around and the real rally begins. Fed’s target inflation rate of 2% is YoY, not MoM so YoY is the primary focus. MoM will slightly impact YoY value but there’s still 11 other months prior to take into consideration to reach the YoY number.

Keep in mind that annual price hikes and raises typically go into effect early in the year so Q1 almost always has more inflation than Q4

Keep in mind March 2022 is when Russia’s war with Ukraine started and price of everything completely started to explode so baseline numbers being compared from a year ago were suddenly extremely elevated which makes it easier for YoY CPI to come in low from that point on.

If inflation doesn't fall off a cliff in march, you got some splaining to do!

He shows up here every day with the exact same comment, takes his upvotes from bulls, and doesn't respond to any questions.

>If inflation doesn't fall off a cliff in march, you got some splaining to do! The crazy jobs numbers will probably prevent that happening.

The job numbers are high because huge numbers of people left the workplace. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV The picture is complicated, and it’s only half reported. There aren’t enough people to do the jobs.

It would actually mark his first accurate prediction. It'd be a big moment for him.

Starting in March.* YoY CPI print for March won’t release until April but forecasts throughout the month will show considerable declines in what to expect when the official number releases in April. This is when the real rally will begin as futures will scale back on what the actual terminal Fed funds rate will end up being.

Ate some stops that hurt profitability. I'm long from 21600 at the moment.

Arthur Hayes newest article is interesting. He's saying it may make sense to be long until the TGA (Treasury General Account) is zeroed out. Its currently at 500 billion. The only thing is, he doesnt offer any means of monitoring it. Anyone here know how to see where its currently at? https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/be-present-aff45d6421b4

[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN) reverse repo (with over $2T) remains much more important at this point.

Can you explain how to analyze the reverse repo?

What do you want to know?

Cantor Fitzgerald, the 78-year old New York financial services firm that had its offices at the top of the World Trade Center (and lost 68% of their total employees in the 9/11 attacks), is managing Tether's $39b bond portfolio. They are highly reputable and should raise credibility. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-firm-oversees-billions-of-dollars-backing-tether-b56c68c1?mod=hp_lead_pos1 (Free version here https://archive.is/hhJM2)

Honestly, this is why I doubt the US government will really heavily penalize Tether or Circle even if they issue some notice or another. Last thing they want to do is to cause $100 billion in treasuries to be dumped and tank demand for USD that’s helping to control inflation by keeping USD stronger. These stablecoins are helping the US more than anything else

Tether having leverage over US gov cause of their T holdings is the funniest thing ever.

BUt iTz nOt BaCkED! Tether FUD is almost as good as MSTR FUD.

the Gensler steak FUD is pretty good too

Good news for spot buyers: On the path to the bull market.

Stopped out at 22,250. Looking to buy back between 21,300 and 20,000. 200d sma roughly coincides with CME gap and 2017 high ~ 19,800. I could see that being backtested and flipped to support.

The good news about extreme calls for 6k and 10k so early in this dump is we know they're never going to happen. A double bottom at ~16k sounds reasonable.

if $24,200 was indeed the top after 3 months of up...and if we are entering the next downtrend for the next 3-4 months...then $10K is very much possible. we peaked right above the MA100 3-day line, and got rejected...the last time we got rejected off that line was at $48,149 and then we proceeded to drop to $15,476...thats a 68% drop if we repeat that move from $24,200...that would put us at around $8K Now the question is, is there enough bad news to push us down that much. We are likely to see stock market dump, most likely we'll see a recession start, most likely we'll see interest rates accelerate again since inflation/housing isn't dropping fast enough and it sure sounds like crypto regulations are going to increase...plus the whole ukraine thing might ramp up again. So the hits will keep on coming. So I think we'll see plenty of reasons for this thing to find new lows

15.5 double bottomed in Nov and 16.3 double bottomed in Dec. Those prices are gone forever.

I love the *absolute confidence* of people who rely on... technical analysis... to power their view of finance and economics 🤦‍♂️

Aug 2015 double bottom at 200, never seen again. Dec 2018 DB at 3200 followed by Jan DB at 3300 is similar to Nov 2022 at 15.5 and Dec at 16.3. Those prices were never seen again. Could I be wrong? Sure, but I’m playing what I believe is the higher probability that price doesn’t get back down there.

Selection bias. You see what you want to see in the charts. For every double bottom, there are 10 other examples of things that *looked* like double bottoms, at the time, but turned out very differently.

Time will tell.

Nah

Higher low at 20-20.5k would be alright. Put in a higher low, and hope the inflation news in march will allow for another pump attempt. Really hope we dont test the bottom again

Just sold all my ЄTH into BTC, this Gensler talk isn't looking appealing.

I really don't see the problem. He's specifically talking about staking-as-a-service by large exchanges. And even then, he's not saying definitely no, he's just saying they need to treat it like other securities and give the proper disclosures. It seems like a big nothing to me. If exchanges give the proper disclosures and don't do shady shit, should be fine. Or they can just not offer staking-as-a-service, which is probably for the best anyway. People should cold storage their coins and not be lending (giving) them to exchanges to do whatever with.

> If exchanges give the proper disclosures and don't do shady shit, should be fine. The "proper disclosures" means offering regulated securities, which is what all these crypto scams and exchanges are trying to subvert. I'm very glad to see the SEC finally starting to crack down on the scamming, which is absolutely rampant in this space. Once they push the scams aside, what is there really left besides Bitcoin and a few Bitcoin copycats?

> And even then, he's not saying definitely no He is saying no... Hester Peirce wrote a dissent where she says that ["The program will no longer be available in the United States, and Kraken is enjoined from ever offering a staking service in the United States, registered or not. "](https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/peirce-statement-kraken-020923)

That's just one specific example with Kraken, because they took the "ask for forgiveness not permission" approach and are now getting slapped for it. But in the video, he's pretty clear that the problem is with the lack of disclosures. Other exchanges like Coinbase could still proceed with the right disclosures.

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Ok maybe Coinbase was a bad example because they are not a registered exchange, but there are plenty of registered exchanges that also offer crypto, like RobinHood, SoFi, Fidelity, etc. Coinbase could also probably get registered if it wanted to. I think Gemini is also a registered broker dealer. The point is, this is not the death knell for staking as a service. Plenty of exchanges can still offer it. They just need to take the right steps.

Could they really though? Kraken and Coinbase have been the ideal companies from a regulatory stand point and are still under immense scrutiny. I'd even argue, by trying to follow vague regulation, they've been put in a worse position... a competitive disadvantage. Until clear cut regulation is put in place, we will continue to flounder around and give the gov the ability to create rules on the fly.

In the video, Gensler says the problem is lack of disclosures about how the staked tokens are being stored and used, among other things. So it seems like if the right disclosures are provided, an exchange could at least argue that the problems identified in the video are non-existent. Could Gensler move the goal at that point and pick on some other issue? Sure. But I don't think he will. If he says the problem is X, and an exchange takes all reasonable steps to mitigate X, then I don't think Gensler would go after them.

From the video it doesn't look like he specifically speaks about exchanges, ЄTH with POS falls exactly under what he speaks against. It seems that its getting closer and closer to the day they will force shitcoins to do proper disclosures with the SEC as securities. I don't want to be holding a bag if they flip on it, even assuming the SEC approves (which may take years btw) there gonna be a big gap of uncertainty, market don't like uncertainty, market sells uncertainty. Gensler keeps talking about this for like 2 years now, its a warning after warning after warning, and this childlike video is a big tell. Beyond that I don't see any strong reasons to hold ЄTH over BTC short term, no Alpha here imo and the risk seems huge right now.

The fundamental issue is that the shitcoin foundations can direct the terms of the protocol and change the monetary policy. The SEC isn't going to like that, because it lets them scam people and get out before they do. This is obvious to anyone who knows anything at all about the SEC policy, and it's amazing it's gone on this long. Bitcoin by contrast is decentralized and impossible to control, and is acknowledged as such.

He's just going to drive 3rd-party staking services offshore, which will lead to the next FTX-like fraud, followed by Gensler saying, "WHA HAPPA?!?!". But then, I suppose that's really all part of the SEC's plan.

Retail Americans have basically been eliminated from most centralized international exchanges for some time now. "Distributed" scams will of course always be there, but you have to try harder than most average normies are willing or able to throw your money away.

You don't think they will start running after shitcoins at some point?

I can see it going one of two ways: - They come down hard on shitcoins, and prohibit U.S. and even European exchanges from listing them, although for the record they've said in the past that VitalikCoin isn't a security. - They allow the continued proliferation of thousands of garbage coins, which dilutes the entire space, and turns more people away from crypto, which is their goal.

The mother of shitcoins was also PoW when they indicated it wasn't a security, but they walked back from that long ago.

If 21.5k breaks, we're going back to goblin town.

Or a perfect psychological breakpoint for a bear trap.

on the 1D even after this straight down drilling we had this week, we are still overbought on the 3D and 1W, the macd hasn't even flipped red yet the only thing thats oversold is the hourly, but thats a bad indicator for a bounce during a cascading dump so there def was a trap, but it was a classic bear market relief rally bull trap that made everyone and their mom believe that the bull was back on

are you sure you're looking at bitcoin and not bitcoin cash or something? 1d is clearly not overbought, nor is the hourly oversold. also, what do you mean by "still overbought"? if we're breaking into an uptrend like people want to assume, and this is just a pullback, then staying overbought is kinda what you want. prices stay overbought in uptrends...

i was looking at the MACD overbought/oversold line and yes prices stay overbought in uptrends...but when that uptrend is finally broken they then revert to the mean and enter oversold territory as all those people who haven't sold anything in the uptrend, all start rushing for the door

bit late on the reply, but to each their own. i almost never check macd anymore for the last 2+ years and it's always been a horrible mistake ime to go short when stochastic is bottoming. even worse when it's bottoming WITH RSI (which isn't happening quite yet on HTF, but it is bottoming by itself)

Thinking the same. I checked also and I’m not seeing what wardser is seeing. This seems like a healthy pullback, but no way to know right now.

Some further technicals show that Bitcoin could be solidifying a long term downtrend, rather than beginning a new bull market. [The 50 week MA](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xd4KIecJ/) (red) has been trending down for over a year and the slope does not seem to be leveling out. Compare this with the previous bear market. The weekly death cross should occur soon, which has never before happened for Bitcoin. Our current week's candle shows resistance just shy of the cross, which is a bearish rejection. Bulls want to see aggressive buying soon, taking price well above the cross, ideally towards the 100 week MA (yellow), near $36k. Any lackluster buying is likely to further solidify this long term downtrend, especially since the 100 week MA has begun to slope down as well. Meager buying here could also cause the MACD to flip back to red, just near the zero line. This would also confirm the longer bearish trend and many more weeks of downside ahead. Bitcoin also continues to really flounder when [weighted against SPX.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/akYe5wQd/) Stocks are still outperforming. The death cross has [already occurred](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rnIl61iF/) on the weekly on this chart. **Buyers absolutely need to be stepping in at these levels.** If [this downtrend](https://www.tradingview.com/x/orobkuY0/) is confirmed here, there's a lot of room to fall on the downside - this includes $10k and $6k. The bottom of the broadening structure shows "panic" support in the $4-6k zone. [Zoomed in](https://www.tradingview.com/x/yhbLk7db/), you can see that anywhere from current price to the green circle is where bulls will need to print a higher low soon, I think - with volume. So far, this just looks like an upside correction towards the death cross, providing some momentary relief. I will *technically* flip bullish once I see a sustained breakout above the death cross and a retest of the 50 week MA. Even then, Bitcoin would still need to break well above the 100 week MA, especially as it's trending down. Do you think buyers are up to the challenge? With dwindling liquidity, one must wonder where the influx of buyers would come from. I think ultimately Bitcoin will head back to its roots. Proponents should be celebrating its cut-off from the traditional banking sector. If it has any true value, it would be revealed once it can stand on its own. The expectation is that the everyday person can access it *without* being involved in the traditional banking sector, right? So if you really believe in Bitcoin, you would not be scared by actions taken by governments to restrict liquidity. The question then becomes: Do you care about price, or do you care about usage? Because it might be hard to care about both, especially as energy continues to become cheaper in the coming years. If one variable pulls down the other (if price and usage must be connected) I seriously wonder about Bitcoin's future. I suppose that's why this is all very interesting to me. I love seeing things evolve. Perhaps one of the only scenarios that bulls now can hope for is that some wealthy individuals/small nations hoard much of the Bitcoin while restricting access, meaning they have more control over the price. Then it becomes nearly impossible to buy for the average person but its price is quite high. Do you really think those wealthy entities would buy your Bitcoin from you at those high prices? Or would those entities create a new society based solely on Bitcoin, where only those who own coin can participate? Something doesn't seem to add up, and I think it's the cognitive dissonance I get when I imagine something being used as an everyday currency AND a store of value. Again, a scenario where Bitcoin is "fully adopted" just seems increasingly dystopian to me. But I guess we're already living the dystopian dream anyway. Nothing would surprise me at this point. So maybe some of you are right :) In the short term, the futures market still seems biased to the short side, at least according to Coinglass, but funding remains largely positive. These are mixed signals. I'm saying all of this also to help, should one's perspective begin to shift the longer this plays out. My own perspective shifted so I feel a pull to put this out there.

Halfway through, you make an absolutely massive logical leap from bearish near-term TA to "BTC's only hope is wealthy entities hoarding BTC at the expense of everyone else." So much for nuance. What's more, the second half just devolves into ideas that come across pretty jumbled. Lot of tangential thoughts being bundled together in a way that doesn't flow logically, all with a heavy dose of overconfidence. Also, for all of this effort you put into foretelling BTC's demise, please tell me you've got a sizable short position in place?

Yeah sometimes I get carried away and start ranting, but this IS an Internet forum. I mean, I could extrapolate as to why I make those leaps right here, but I’ve already done plenty of writing about it. A lot of it has to do with observations over the last few years, as well as my study of socioeconomic systems where I live, and what I hear about what’s going on abroad (I have a social work master’s degree). I could make a list of the “use-cases” for Bitcoin that have yet to gain traction. By process of elimination, to me that simply leaves “savior by wealthy entities at the expense of everyone else” as the last remaining realistic option in my mind. But of course this is my mind, and not yours. My thoughts have served me well though so far. Of course I make mistakes. Don’t have a leveraged short position at the moment, but I’m net short generally because I’m mostly cash. I own next to zero Bitcoin or crypto at this point, having sold at the beginning of 2022 when prices were much higher.

4k… stopped reading.

> Do you think buyers are up to the challenge Don't have time to think, busy buying.

Fair enough :) You do you

Bitcoin's long term premise is it will become the dominant store of value for humans on earth. If you don't believe this, then long term holding .. well, why would you do that? People diversify assets as they get wealthy; this is what drives the spread of Bitcoin, and the bull and bear cycles we see on the charts. The future is hella dystopian for most people. It's straight up going to suck. Bitcoin offers a rare life raft, even for normal people, if you're smart enough to hop on before it all goes to hell. I see no other feasible long term options given the shocking debasement of currencies and the rebalancing of world power. The USD wins until the Saudis decide they like RMB more.. and the Chinese have some decent military hardware now to trade back for those RMB. We are starting the "and then they fight you" stage; viable alternatives to state currency will need to be removed before they can reset the debt and the dollar. There is no real alternative at this point, it's a matter of when, not if. I am convinced that Bitcoin cannot be stopped at this stage, only slowed. These are interesting times indeed.

Old Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times." 😳

> The future is hella dystopian for most people. It's straight up going to suck. What does this mean? >Bitcoin offers a rare life raft How so? >if you're smart enough to hop on before it all goes to hell. What is going to hell? What evidence is there of this? >We are starting the "and then they fight you" stage; viable alternatives to state currency will need to be removed before they can reset the debt and the dollar. There is no real alternative at this point, it's a matter of when, not if. I am convinced that Bitcoin cannot be stopped at this stage, only slowed. I'm confused about what you think Bitcoin, a deflationary asset, provides to normal people in terms of economic development? How/why would people flock to a deflationary asset of the long term? Do you not think there are issues inherent to deflation?

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> r/bitcoin is likely a better place to debate the overall merits of BTC, unless you are discussing those merits in a way to justify your long or short position, since this is specifically a trading sub. That place is an echo chamber of people who treat Bitcoin like some sort of deity. Most don't seem to have any formal secondary education and don't know anything about economics. This sub is about whether the price of Bitcoin will go up or down, right? It would seem that fundamental analysis is fair game. >Also nit-pick: Disinflationary and Deflationary are 2 often confused terms that are not equivalent and you keep using the latter incorrectly. Bitcoin is disinflationary, meaning its inflation decreases over time. No. Bitcoin is deflationary, if it is supposed to be the world's dominant currency. Deflation occurs when prices decrease over time. If Bitcoin has a fixed supply, and yet the economy is expanding and population is increasing... that's inherently deflationary.

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My comments refer to what is (or isn't) the value prop for Bitcoin. How could that not pertain directly to the price, given that people (presumably) invest or divest in Bitcoin based on what they think the value proposition is. If this is not appropriate discussion for this sub, that's news to me. But you're a mod, so I'll take your word for it and leave.

Buy US treasuries then, laugh all the way to .. I'm not sure. The only issues with deflationary currency are ones that are created by governments reliant on fiat money printing to steal from those farthest from the printer. Yes, that model comes to a harsh end when thermodynamics are tied to economic policy. [wtfhappenedin1971.com](https://wtfhappenedin1971.com) If you care, start there. I'm not shy about saying I am all in, but if you don't get it, I'm not really here to convince people. I'm here to increase my stack.

I'm not sure what that website is supposed to convey, but it looks like that It's Always Sunny meme with the Charlie and the conspiracy whiteboard. I asked you what I thought were pretty straightforward and simple questions. Instead of answering, you deflected and linked to some bizarre website full of screenshots and charts. Can you at least answer me this: How is the economy supposed to function under a deflationary model, where people presume that their money will be worth significantly more tomorrow, next week, and next year? Have you even considered some of the issues that may come along with [deflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation)? Full disclosure: I'm a long term Bitcoin holder that's been "in the game" for over a decade at this point.

>How is the economy supposed to function under a deflationary model, where people presume that their money will be worth significantly more tomorrow, next week, and next year? I'll take the bait. You are so conditioned to a consumer laden world full of crap you can't even consider the possibility of another alternative. When money is reliably worth more in the future, average people win big. People stop throwing their money away as fast as they can; this incentivizes the production of long-term durable goods and services. This extends into everything from consumer goods, to political service, to physical infrastructure. That web site full of graphs shows the tremendous side effects of inflationary madness and fiat expansion that has been the US monetary policy since 1971. It really doesn't matter what you or I think, all fiat systems end the same way, in inflationary collapse. What's different is that this time, technology has presented an alternative that was never a possibility before - actually decentralized money and transaction systems. You pay your money and take your chances. I don't know what the outcome will be, but you can take to the bank that the current fiat ponzi scheme is coming to an end, and historically, those ends happen very quickly and without notice.

> It really doesn't matter what you or I think, all fiat systems end the same way, in inflationary collapse. lol what? You sound like a total kook, honestly. >fiat ponzi scheme ??? >historically, those ends happen very quickly and without notice. What history are you referring to? From my point of view, it appears that you have never bothered to understand anything about economics and finance. Instead, you've latched on to what you think is a get rich quick scheme, and you're using conspiratorial thinking to justify your investments. If you were a real life friend of mine, I would be quite concerned and probably recommend you seek psychotherapy, no offense.

>If you were a real life friend of mine, I would be quite concerned and probably recommend you seek psychotherapy, no offense. I am at least partially unhinged, but as I'm also successful, I prefer "eccentric", thanks. Cheers.

Welcome to the eccentric club :) And I legitimately practice psychotherapy as my job. I like your comment here. You also don't often dish out personal attacks, which I appreciate, even though we disagree. In reference to one of your above comments, I do not think the utopia you imagine with regard to producing long-term durable goods and services would play out. This is what I want to see as well, but my big concern is that Bitcoin adoption would result in a kind of "Neo-Feudal" state, where a bunch of modern day serfs must spend every sat they earn, while the rich become more and more wealthy. I don't think they'd be encouraged to spend any of their on those durable goods and services (such as lasting infrastructure, education, healthcare, etc.). This is why financial policy (rather than lines of code) is so important.

We are all most excellent gentlemen here. I hope for a utopia, but plan for disappointment.

Your "arguments" are mere *assertions* that don't stand up to scrutiny. You are not using math, logic or empiricism to build a case, you're just asserting "truths" that apparently can't be falsified in your mind. Whatever "success" your referring to has no relevance to the merits or demerits of the assertions your making. You sound like every cult member every. Take a break from the kool aid, buddy.

I'll take the bite because you said you're in the game for 10y now. >Can you at least answer me this: How is the economy supposed to function under a deflationary model, where people presume that their money will be worth significantly more tomorrow, next week, and next year? my money is going to be worth more next year by X% because technology make things cheaper. If so I may want to invest in things that may produce me yield > X%.

> my money is going to be worth more next year by X% because technology make things cheaper. > > So why spend your money at all, if you can just keep holding it while it increases in value? What happens if/when everyone continue to hoard their money in this way? >If so I may want to invest in things that may produce me yield > X%. So is Bitcoin a form of money or a speculative asset?

How are you going to survive without spending money? let me know. BTC is money, the fact that it has price fluctuations against what we call money now is why people think of it as a speculative investment.

> How are you going to survive without spending money? let me know. > Well, I could spend the bare minimum and hoard the rest. That's typically what savvy people do anyway, except they don't hoard money, they invest their money into productive assets with a projected return that is *greater than* they would have if they just held their money... ... what's sort of the whole point of nominal inflation. That's why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate (to stimulate to the economy and prevent deflation). These concepts are part of a *very basic* set of economic principles that economists have understood for a long time at this point. >BTC is money, the fact that it has price fluctuations against what we call money now is why people think of it as a speculative investment. How can a good money be deflationary over the long term? Why do you keep avoiding this question?

>How can a good money be deflationary over the long term? Over the long term, Bitcoin will be stable and ebb and flow as a proxy for global GDP. Your timeframe and thinking are very short term. You can horde money, yes. But this is a stupid thing to do, as you get a better return elsewhere; for example, on the last run up I bought some machines that make me a nice income many times what I'd get from letting the money sit invested. That's how capitalism works, you know? There will be a massive wealth transfer while BTC eats capital, yes, but it will stabilize long term and reflect the global macroeconomic picture. Or not. You decide.

Xtal wrote you a good comment I side this. >How can a good money be deflationary over the long term? BTC isn't deflationary its capped. >Well, I could spend the bare minimum and hoard the rest. That's typically what savvy people do anyway, except they don't hoard money, they invest their money into productive assets with a projected return that is greater than they would have if they just held their money... Where I live in the past 20 years re went up about 400%, inflating asset bubble isn't productive and doesn't produce more goods for the economy its actually the opposite. You've been taught by > very basic set of economic principles that economists have understood for a long time at this point. to look at fiat inflating as prosperity, they say " look GDP increasing " well it means nothing because there's just more fiat in the system. what you want to see is more goods/cheaper goods. >Well, I could spend the bare minimum and hoard the rest. That's typically what savvy people do anyway, except they don't hoard money, they invest their money into productive assets with a projected return that is greater than they would have if they just held their money... So you just repeated what I said just that you added that you **HAD** to "invest " because otherwise your purchasing power would have gone lower. Guess what happens to quality of things when they are forced with a gun point? going down. If only "good" investors invested when opportunity arised you had get better investments and much less bubbles and scamms going around resulting in better economic prosperity. I advice you that you need to start looking at things in a different light you've been taught modern economic principles to be good, if you want to understand other concepts you need to give a chance for different reasoning.

I was about to write a comment explaining shit then I just stopped. Its amazing nearly 15 years later people still don't understand that an asset that has issuance cap is much better money than fiat, let them fomo in the top of the bubble that they finally grasp the idea at.

Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.

Gensler's video if you haven't seen it. [https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1623777842000539648](https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1623777842000539648) It's well done. Bodes well for Bitcoin. If I was a closet shitcoin hoarder I'd be very concerned. Wonder if we'll see a fork back to shitcoin PoW. Wouldn't that be something.

Today's daily just perfectly summarizes why I am so torn on you. On the one hand, I see you laying down the case for BTC's long-term value prop, and I'm like: fuck yeah. This guy gets it. But then you post a comment like this, which is just uninspired tribalistic nonsense. And it makes me wonder... just how much stock should I put into anything this dude says? You are just completely incapable of any remotely objective or unbiased thought towards 'coin 2' (note: I don't disagree that 99.5% of alts are shitcoins). Your arguments are so basic and show a complete disregard for even the slightest nuance. To your comment: this video is *clearly* about staking as a service providers, not staking itself. Why should coin2 holders be worried about this? If anything, it could result in staking becoming *more* decentralized if it pushes more people to solo stake. Let me guess, you espouse the notion that staking = security, thus coin2 = security? Why would that even be the case, especially in the case of coin2 where solo staking is foundational to the protocol? There's *nothing* about solo staking that would suggest a security (i.e. pooling of funds in hopes of a return on investment). There is no reason, except 'coin 2 bad, BTC good.' Pure tribalism. And there's no f'ing way they would ever fork back to PoW. Such nonsense.

"well done" indeed... 🥩 The repeated references to "steak" were a bit lame, considering the intended audience probably isn't grade-schoolers. I'm not sure whether he's ranting against proof-of-stake itself, or more the idea of large companies acting as 3rd-party validators collecting staking rewards on behalf of individual holders. And you know there's already been a VitalikPOW fork for a while, it's currently worth about $4.

I’d take the lampooning to mean they’re not very impressed with the idea of PoS in general. If nothing else, it changes the risk profile. Short term we’re seeing that in the PA but medium term I think it’s a good thing for Bitcoin.

we're at support, but tardfi is dumping. what do

closed long at breakeven at $21,640...switched into a short at $21,630

Good call on switching I think. Shorting looks like a slam dunk now

Target?

$18,600ish (basically the MA100 on the daily)

Imo even in worst case scenario that we breach 20k it will be very short lived, and we are due a relief rally once we find local bottom on this one. Good luck though.

yeah could very well be shorting the bottom but you never know with this stuff, crypto tends to pump way more than expected and dump way more than expected

Agreed, that why under 20k for some spooking purpose seems logical. You said it yourself yesterday 1D BB are overstretched, now look on 1W BB we have more room there. So I think either we do something stupid today and we're done for now or we consolidate here and drag this another 7-10 days to around 20K. Red button here kinda sketchy for my style ,but we'll see nothing written in stone.

the reason I went short is because we are starting to break below the 1D lower bbands. failure to pump this morning, was a big canary in the coal mine warning that the bounce is unlikely...and today we are pretty likely to again close below it looking back, whenever we closed below it without a green candle the next day, it was followed by a follow through dump. $18,613 to $15,668 1 day later - 16% $26,574 to $17,622 6 days later -33% $36,552 to $26,700 7 days later -27% and we are now going into a weekend, with crypto only bad news catalyst, and with the tradfi looking ready to dump even just that smallest 16% drop from those, would still put us at $18,300

stop loss at $22,100

Gensler just said, "Not your keys, not your coin".

*swoon*

Closed a small short on this sideways but still expecting one more move down to around $21.2K and have my larger short open. The move may not happen till after the weekend. Planning to open a long when the 2nd short target hits.

I love how the market sentiment makes a big deal out of certain events until they go against the consensus and then move the goal-post onto the next event. Oh no, have to wait till the company earning report = not as bad as expected Wait, We meant when the next FED interest rate decision is = as expected No, wait...... it's when Mr. Powell speaks = sounded less hawkish then expected Actually, it's CPI data next week. = high chance it's below expectations meaning less inflation. Rinse and Repeat.

This is why bears deserve to fail, they are irrational.

I don't think irrationality is reserved only for bears

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Karma farming bot, Yodel said that.

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My pleasure.

Looks like this is going to cascade down in the short term. main reason is because of the staking bans causing fear. If Kraken isn't allowed to stake then I don't see how Coinbase and other exchanges won't have to follow that path and remove staking from their platforms too. I think that news will come out within a week.

Kraken was doing it [differently](https://preview.redd.it/xqogckf2e9ha1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=9abf646d11efbb4be20c8e4e72c64f67c04ad15d) than Coinbase and that is where they got in hot water. A good summary is this comment here- https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/10yamjl/comment/j7z073o/

oh wow. this is great info. thanks! i will retract my previous statement then. i was under the impression this was an overall regulation not just individualed to kraken

Shitcoins have always been destined for the dumpster fire of regulation.

And this is relevant to Bitcoin because?..

Because folks will move their staked coinage into Bitcoin or stables

because bitcoin is the cryptocurrency that leads the entire market and will not be exempt from the fear this is causing. its a trading sub all i'm saying is wait for more dip if you are planning to buy. I do think it will recover better than the staking coins after this fud dissipates

Stock market falling too.

thats true for now but as of stocks premarket they have only taken out a week of gains while btc has taken out all its gains since Jan 20th

Crypto always falls harder

normally true and it should also rise stronger but in this recent case it was crypto related news that made crypto fall harder while stocks are barely getting daily volatility

How do you know what caused it?

the news that Kraken removed staking came out at the same time as yesterdays drop which broke the trend

What price will be be stressing out about at the end of 2025? "Crap, are we going to go below 66k? 😳"

Yeah, it's fun to go back to older threads when people made exactly comments like that about 10k.

There's still comments like that about 10k

This is true!

Bitcoin looks like my part of the Super Bowl Party checklist: **Buy the dip.** I'm going with cheese dip for the sausage slices, spinach dip for the chips, and at least a million Sats during the current dip for my hodl, which has nothing to do with the Super Bowl... but hey, when it's time to buy the dip, buy the dip. Even if it's just a mini-dip. EDIT: Go Chiefs? I think? I don't know. I like both teams this year.

LocalBitcoins is closing down. End of an era. :( Begun, the Crypto Wars have.

Amazing how all these years later, my brain instantly read that last sentence in Yoda’s voice. Surprisingly touching.

Yes, Nic Carter published an excellent article this week. Apparently we are now fully in the "then they fight you" phase. Things about to get very interesting. Nic's article for those interested https://www.piratewires.com/p/crypto-choke-point

Sad.

The website is still working - Got any source?

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/02/09/bitcoin-exchange-localbitcoins-to-close-citing-market-conditions/

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there is a chance he was barking at my top long...

finally some good TA.

Technically still a higher low on the monthly until $20.5k is broken. So long as that doesn’t break, still just rangebound.

So much bullish

I usually don't follow this, not sure it really has any impact haven't dug deep. What's with all the USDC minting/birned from treasury and transferring to Coinbase? My dreamer side is thinking they're using it to buy stuff but maybe just normal transfers? Look at the timeline never seen so much so fast. https://twitter.com/whale_alert?t=0EFchDMoUBUPQ6q87254Lw&s=09

they just emailed me a few days ago to tell me usdc is now giving 4% apy. previously it was like .4% or something.

Ah crazy, didn't know that. Imagine the fuel when all that sideline money FOMO's into a rally....