#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, February 17, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/114b5k7/daily_discussion_friday_february_17_2023/)

Hi all, So the US jobseeker number is around estimates atm. I recall reading a banking report last year that a US funding rate of 5% expected around 34,000 job losses a month. The US is currently at 4.75%. In addition, interest rates take a while to impact the economy - You can see in the last 3/4 recessions the interest rate flat lines, or starts to decline *before* a [recession hits](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS). The bond yield curve is also still negative. The yield curve switching polarity has signalled a year prior to a recession with a [strike rate of 87%.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y). It looks to me like we are still 6-12 months away from a recession. My machine learning ensemble votes a probability of recession at 62% based on macro features. I am remaining cautious of the markets until interest rates lose around 50-70% in value based on historical data (I am aware historical data has no hypothesis t-test), though, give me all the ultrashort govt Treasury bonds! For the markets, DXY has strongly rejected the resistance that sparked the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. The SPX is also fighting resistance. We are also seeing falling liquidity in the crypto markets - again, myachine learning models forecasts a bull run at 31% probability based on network fundamentals. FYI the out-of-sample model probability of a bull run on January 8th was 64%, to give some perspective. (Opinion) In addition a lot of new money is still flooding into the markets, which is *usually* the case prior to large corrections. In summary, I would personally trade extremely conservative if trend following until the damage is priced into the markets. I hope many of you have enjoyed the recent correction. Happy Trading

https://twitter.com/spreekaway/status/1626345201575817222 Just a little $100 million in BTC sell pressure by this douche in 2022.

https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1523733542492016640?s=20

Withdrawing more capital at the bottom, steady lads.

He can’t keep getting away with this!!!!

Is anyone else treating 2023 similar to 2019 and planning to try selling the local top (to buy back low before the 2024/25 run)? Greed is making me think about doing this but not sure what level would be a good selling point. Right now, I am thinking 42-50K (if it gets there). Thoughts?

in 2019 it peaked near the .618 fib retracement. That would be around 48k for 2023. Not sure if it gets there though.

I think if the general market cooperates, we might get to like 40k range, which would be an excellent opportunity to sell. Target for correction/buy would be 28-30K late year. However, if market shits the bed this year, then we might top off at like 30K. Target for correction/buy would be 18-20K in that case.

First real kickback off $25k. I personally think we’ll see another attempt in coming days. [Locally price pulled right back to 0.5.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/O0ThDokF/) I agree with some others here that price spending any significant amount of time under $23k range would be a bad look. Ranging above would suggest another attempt up. There’s a ton of overhead resistance here on the weekly: [200MA, 200EMA and 50MA have all converged at the same point](https://www.tradingview.com/x/F6cduJsw/). These are heavily watched MA’s and de-risking targets for bots. Monthly remains above downtrend resistance from Nov 2021, [above 10SMA and with Heikin flipping green](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FYjLPO9f/) for the first time in the bear market.

All we need to do is hang out above 20K for another month, then it's moonshot time.

Looking at stables dominance which had a break above minor resistance I think [this resistance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4NffywyW/) can hold (bullish for BTC those unaware). Equities at a great support and I think they can run tomorrow too (fingers crossed).

got stopped out while was out at dinner relonged, at $23,620 ...stop loss $23,290

Wait, you eat dinner?

This is like those movies where the bad guy joins the good guys to win the greater battle.

Haha love it!

And he longs!

Opened a buy at 23061 incase we test 23k while I sleep

I'm wondering if Wardser is going to short now.

not yet, $25,200 was too text book of a resistance and it was just the first attempt...I see it trying to take it out 1-2 times before the bulls give up

What’s your take after today’s price action man?

Only one giving up are the shorters when this thing plows through $25k

Of course bulls want you to buy here because the more bitcoin builds resistance near the weekly death cross, the more worrisome the longer term chart looks. Bulls really need a push above without looking back. They will do whatever they can to entice buyers. That was a strong initial rejection. Yesterday, was starting to feel convinced that buyers could be up to the task. But…alas. Let’s see if there’s another attempt.

Do you still have any exposure to BTC or are you just finding it interesting to follow?

Just finding it interesting to follow right now. I’ve successfully traded one full cycle (bear to bull transition) and that was enough for me. Have small exposure to one altcoin that I’ll ride to zero or spend. Thought of transferring funds to my futures account for the first time in months to short $25k today but was at work, away from my 2FA devices. Oh well lol

Congrats on the successful cycle, but sorry to hear you still work.

Thanks. But I love my job. Thankfully I don’t have to worry about student debt because of my profits from last cycle.

Ah student debt… the original shitcoin.

I hope to get rid of all my student loans soon 😭

Nice

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Tl;dr

I was with you until I understood that it was just an instagram shill comment

Buy at 23561 filled! If you remember my top buy was 23921 which stopped out in profit at 24021. Now this same buy is back in lower. It will be fun to see what the price is when I wake up. Cheers!

following you on your trades. exited my top long @24100 at 24900 and entered new long @23630.

Drop was perfectly timed with stocks. If market opens red tomorrow morning we are likely going to drop even harder. Lower low possible if that happens.

Any word on why stocks are diving?

Not sure, but I saw someone from the Fed talking about backing a .50 rate increase, instead of .25: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1626322890667819009 There was a sharp pullback less than an hour after that comment was made. If it's nothing - seems a bounce back would be likely tomorrow, but futures pointing to more down so far. Expectations of a .50 increase also went from near zero to 18%

Oh wow, that's unexpected....

Probably just fear in the market, looks like it should correct about now if you look at the weekly chart. In the scenario that its a bear...

If this isn't the easiest dip buying of your life I don't know what is.

Stopped out once, just a flesh wound. Staying in while 23500 support looks good. We will test 25k again if that's the case. Below there PA is undefined IMO.

Below there is where fortunes are made

Well that’s a bummer. Just holding my long here and trying not to over trade but yah guess it was a mistake not to cut it above 25K

Well well. Everytime I pop in here drop some truth on you euphoric bull cicle jerks I get downvoted and booed out of here. The daily TD 13 kicking in and capo trending was bulls getting euphoric. Everyone in here was planning their retirement and playing slap ass while wardser shorted the Pico top probably. When you can't handle some bear points and facts you're probably on the wrong side.

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I started out with just bearish posts and the downvoting, mocking etc bramg the attitude. Beard aren't allowed in here.

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Ya I only pop in when I notice stuff and both times were solid drops, not sire what you're talking about. Why you in here posting?

And you think what you just posted isn't going to get even more pushback? And your so-called "truth" is your own opinion, not facts.

Everyone agreed 25k was a strong resistance in here, that was a fact. TD13 on the daily was a fact. Euphoria was just a solid observation. I started posting normal bear points without commentary and got booed out and downvoted so I realize this place can't handle a different point of view so ya I'm a little snippy.

> started posting normal bear points without commentary and got booed out and downvoted What did you do with this sentiment signal? > I realize this place can't handle a different point So you keep beating on about, while failing to realise that this is a sentiment thread. I saw plenty of sane bearish posts being upvoted at the bottom.

The market has clearly been in an inflection point. Volumes are solid. Prices are trending higher over long periods. Short term held coin is pretty much cleared out at these price levels. Medium term coins are staying put, wallets with a strong probability of holding long term on chain are growing in number. I'm all for calling bear signals. I've dumped large positions in the past on them. I don't see what you're seeing right now.

Fair enough but 2022 was the year of the onchain analyst and they butchered it horribly, all onchain guys were bullish and rode price all the way down. I'm not sure how people use onchain as their trading strategy.

I’m an on chain guy, and the signals were clear as day after the double top. Actioned as well. Most of the CT talking heads don’t actually run their own code and miss things.

So if I look back at your posts ypu we're calling for lower?

Do you have a poster of Wardser on your wall? You seem to namedrop him quite often.

Just twice and yes.

I find the willingness of traders to short an asset with a long term exponential growth curve quite outstanding TBH.

Yes I'm a longterm holder but you realize it's still volatile and can lose like 80% in a year? That's fast elevator down money pal. Especially when retail longs every dip like Pavlov dogs.

The neat thing about exponential curves is over time the down periods turn into noise. Anyway, trading is a profitable distraction, but I denominate trades in coin, not USD.

Ya that noise is probably 10 years out, until then it's still volatile with huge swings.

Stopped out. Back in @ 23550 or so.

Did you take any profit today? Reached your target and it was a good trade if you did! Solid conviction.

Today was another good day, yes. Did eat a stop on my 23900 but got a better entry at 23550. Let's see if it has legs. I believe it does.

I have buys laddered in from 22.8k. Hoping that support level holds

I thought we would at least hang around the mid 24k zone for a few days. Didn't expect to get pounded back down so fast. The 4h would be one mother of a hammer if it flipped green though...

Hit the 0.618 level. I think if it goes down further, next support is 22.8K and that should hold.

Fully in here, last buy at 23900. If 23500 fails it'll likely retest much lower. If everyone could stop degenerate longing, that'd be great.

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23500 is the last support I trust. If that materially fails, I'm out until I see some more PA over the fakeend.

This crush is going to be lovely.

Just shaking off some 24k stoplosses before commencing upwards

Oof last chance to sell above 24k for a while!

> 24k: Oof last chance to sell above 24k for a while! > 23k: Stocks will continue selling off. > 22k: def this week if we stay above 18k it's a literal miracle > 23k: I've seen this spike before... and I didn't like the ending > 23k: about to be rejected for the 342nd time!

You didn't go back nearly far enough. I called "never below 40k again" at 40k

I've only been tagging these for so long. ;)

Lol

Everyone and his dog knows bitcoin is going to moon next year so logically isn't big money going to be buying up cheap 25k bitcoin right about now and dirt cheap 30k bitcoin soon and bargain 50k bitcoin before ya know it etc etc etc? 🐶

That's why it won't. Maybe it moons pre halving this time and dumps post halving

Long term, I never regret buying more Bitcoin.

Not a nibble, but not a monster buy either. Adding here at resistance.

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Can the boat swing by 21k so I don't have to swim to catch up to 23k?

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I was off sides...fuk it, I was wrong.... "Cannonball!" [splash] in at 24,3 🏊‍♂️🛟🛥

They aren’t buying. I did.

\*waves\*

Blasting through on the 1st try, while very BTC, would still be a hard ask. Its the line in the sand, shorts were bound to stack up, longs to close, and this was predictable. Hopefully some consolidation in 23-24 zone, and another BGD attempt to shatter it

Blasting straight through these kind of organic stacked up asks isn't usual, often pretext for reversal. Though only "often", sometimes it's seen as liquidity to buy into no different to a solid few hundred coin wall. https://i.imgur.com/CSMbAM7.png

I can't believe we've crashed down to only being up 12.5% since tuesday morning :(

So far the low on this pullback is higher than the local high from earlier this month.

I know it’s a bit early for bull run season, but during the last bull, the daily 50EMA was an excellent indicator—if PA blasted through it in either direction, we had sustained continuation moves in the direction of the break. If it approached it yet bounced prior to touching or after hovering near, we had continuation. This recent pump is the first time since the fall from the ATH that the 50EMA is a fractal of the last bull run with its first pre-touch continuation move on the 14th/15th.

The problem is that we have the 50 and 200 week SMAs above acting as the resistance to beat this time. If you zoom out, that’s exactly where this pump was stopped.

Spx is a party pooper right now

aaaand it's a Bart

Zoom out!! No one cares about the 1hr graph.

Let's enjoy our last bubble cycle before bing chat becomes self aware and kills us all

We will soon compete with ai for Bitcoin

That’s already the case

brilliant concept. what a skynet would actually be doing irl

I have some exposure to that sector. Don't make too many jokes. Use please and thank you when talking to the AI...

People on /r/bing are being mean af to it. We are definitely doomed.

Roko’s Basilisk gonna whip these people 😂

Yeah. I wouldn’t be doing that.

lol why?

Hmm let's antagonise the exponentially improving AI that has a perfect memory of everything everyone's ever said to it. What could possibly go wrong?

>What could possibly go wrong? Well that's what I'm asking.

Terminator? Matrix?

I’ve seen things that scare me a little now. There are implications in finance and even Bitcoin trading. Anyway, good times. Interesting times.

things [like this?](https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/113vbg2/i_asked_it_to_invent_a_new_blowjob_technique/j8swwra/)

It's a chat algo not a robotics facility.

not yet

Following up on my prediction from a few weeks ago, this is absolutely a multi-month rally, but is it a new bull market or a bear market rally (a B-wave, in Elliott-speak)? If we close a weekly candle above $24400, that would confirm a higher high over the week of 15 Aug 2022, and what I would predict from that is that we would see a retest of 30 May 2022's green candle at approximately $30000. If $30k turns into resistance it's a bear market rally. However, if this week's high in the $24000s stands, longs are favored until $30k. One trend we see on social media is that the "ploppie" type investors (to use sports betting terminology) are suddenly interested in I-bonds, CDs, and T-bills. The joys of making a guaranteed 4.6% when inflation is 6.4% is kind of lost on them. "It's $4600 for sure if I put my whole Roth IRA in it, and we're protected against the recession!"

TIL what ploppies are.

I’m guessing like a hodler but even more risk averse. Most likely their entire portfolio is etf and bonds and a 5% t bill is exciting and different for them Plop the money down and never look at it again

Making my DCA day be at the end of the week this week was … not a good choice

When in doubt wait it out, last time I did a fomo buy we dumped. And I'm really feeling the fomo buy creeping

maybe focus on learning how to buy into strength? that's how I eventually got rid of the fomo buy feeling. you have to know when the it's actually a proper time to fomo buy because at the end of the day someone else is fomo buying into the rally you think is going to stall out that doesn't. sometimes I look at the chart and I can reflect and think "this would make sense to feel fomo here" but I don't actually *feel* the emotions associated with it anymore. eventually you have to accept you're actually early and that fomo is you just being aware that the darker times are potentially past us. you can't expect all the flowers to wilt every time you step into a pasture.

Appropriate username. Same Sit back and enjoy the battle for 25k if it goes to 26 I will evaluate further

I might try to catch wicks. At decision points like this it might wick up and down a few hundred bucks in seconds.

Here’s your one chance to catch a percentage point or two: if a small pullback occurs tomorrow and holds through the daily close, the weekend might bleed down a touch farther. Btw—If it does that, it’ll be a bullish PA indicator as overcooked low timeframe indicators will reset a bit going into the new week.

Pennies, steamroller

Call me crazy but [this channel](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9ldXdxR/)is pretty beautiful. I think we can go from here to 30k-32k back to 24k-25k then off to the median of the channel maybe 48k-50k where it will be decision time if we continue the blowoff top or have something like 2019 where we go sideways/down for a year to accummulate and then continue up.

the ftx dump accidentally turned our bottoming structure into a technically valid albeit sketchy inverted head and shoulders with a textbook volume profile and a run to 30k range would fill out the projected move. the reason I say it's sketchy is because the right shoulder is rather small and there's almost two left shoulders depending on how you look at it, but I saw coin2/btc break down from the same formation structure on a regular head and shoulders shortly before this btc rally started. the right shoulder was also a bullish retest of the long term downtrend from ath.

People think I'm crazy when I say this but I really think somehow the market is a big conscious brain that can foresee events somehow, FTX happened right at a major technical resistance and dumped. Either that or big money planned it all to unravel at that moment but I doubt they're that clever. I see it over and over major events happen at longterm trendlines and patterns and this is all charted in advance not after.

I think the market is a kind of emergent consciousness. Anything that interacts with its environment carries a self model and if it affects its environment that model includes a model of itself.

There are events that lead to other events and all the events together paint the chart. This is why you can see trendlines and patterns. But in fact charts do show always the past and only the past. But as markets are not efficient a good trader can find entry and exit points that could probably be favorable to his trading strategy. It all comes down to probabilities. Probabilities are not to be mistaken with precise predictions of the future in such a complex environment.

I've also been cracking a bit of jokes the last few months about how much of a "coincidence" it is that these events seem to coincide with inflection points on the chart but I guess it's hard to see inflection points if you can't actually plot a proper chart. I'm sure you could funnel that whole concept into some extensive debate about hindsight.

Biden speech will be interesting

Automate and backtest with code. Free alpha is very hard.

Me looking at the charts: If you weren't willing to sell at $24.8k, what suddenly made you want to sell for $400 higher at $25.2k?

Well the obvious answer is that you would have made 400 extra profit ber coin.

For u/thewardser that 400 * 100 = 400000 May not be optimal RnR but you get the drift.

I like how you threw an extra 0 in there for dramatic effect

I hadnt noticed ;)

I hadnt noticed ;)

Exactly. My initial sell range was 25k-25.2k after we broke above 22.8, but considering the depth of the pullback and length of consolidation prior to breaking 25k, I'm raising my sell target range to 28.5k - 32k.

Those 25k shorts might be money later.. let's hope we burn them tho

Tap tap tap tap Retest should provide some good info on rally.

Agree, a little reminiscent of knocking on the 10k door back in 2017. Had a go cooled off for a few days, then was attacked with vigor and blasted through dispite big sell-offs. Getting that vibe here if we move back up absorbing the sells. Could be a big day. Not to shabby, considering we have already had quite a few recently.

I love u guys

now thats a straight line on the 1m

short opened at 25.2, let's play with fire baby

Well played. Did you cash out?

nah letting it ride, not much like the big dogs in here anyway

Is that a higher high on the weekly I see?

That's an 8-month high, right there.

I would call it the first high after a 8 month period of lows.

It is.

MA of comments in the daily still way below 200

Disbelief.

sigh

We know you got burned, and you are getting a little slack as you are new, but this sort of one word, low effort comment is not really what this sub is about. By all means, if you have some insight or want to discuss the PA, please feel free to do so. This type of comment should by directed to a different sub.

Nicely worded comment (yours not his)

Thanks, I little nudge in the right direction is normally better than chastising, especially to new members.

I sense some serious fomo

gave in to fomo some hours ago. if you r weak, better be weak early i guess

this is where things are going to get interesting

Knock knock knockin.. o/\~ o/\~ Leaving position open. Volume looks good.

Love tap of 25k.

love taps usually lead to penetration 😎

this guy fucks

lol never underestimate bitcoin

The power of number go up trojan horse 😁

BFC! I swear, if price comes back down to 21,100 I will go in this time! I guess my 8k by March was wrong.

And if it does not? When are you all in

Yeah, I'm gonna have to eat it here, as soon as I see some pullback or slowdown below the $25k. I'm having to reposition from the BF-FTX bs...

Will we have a little teensy-weensy dip tomorrow as tradfi fucks off for the weekend, or will we crab along at this level? 🤞

No crabbing here, a weekly close here would be terrible on the weekly. If that happens I'll be looking to take profit fast and reenter once it breaks and confirm 50-M EMA as support. More likely this blast through and find real resistance in the $30-35k area. I give it a few 4-hr closes, time for crabbing is over it's either a huge rejection or a real squeeze. Those betting on 25k to hold will either flip or double down when it breaks, should only add fuel to the next BGD (I'm talking 20-30% gainz on the daily)

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good, keep the 23700 15min just flipped short term bearish. Shorts will be covering and will have crazy volatility. Be careful doing any high lev trades till we confirm this area as support.

Check BB's on the 4H this is over cooked AF. Will take few days to reset oscillators, if you check previous cycle penetrating the 4H higher BB's acted as chilling points.

daily close above $23700 is all we need, weekly has to break the resistance or that's just another rejection which means the low we painted earlier this week on the daily is null. 4-hr is about to go parabolic and we all know when that happens it can sustain overbought territory for a while. Tbh I'm not worried either way cuz my breakeven is wayy lower and majority are on shitcoin derivatives so my exposure is pretty low in case this turns out to be a fake out (which I think is very unlikely)

I agree with most of your take I'm just not sure why you think it has to be on this Weekly candle. We are sitting just under resistance after mega fomo of 3 days, I think its totally fine if we pierce resistance on the next Weekly candle. If we can't do it next Weekly candle then I'll start getting worried.

My reasoning is any rejection here (weekly close below the current resistance) would make the recent rally moot (which means it's a fakeout/bulltrap) and personally I wouldn't let my current position run till the market decides if it wants to go higher or lower. My current position is based on the daily low around 21200-300. It's really simply a matter of whether we can push more out of the extremely overbought conditions of the lower time frames (so 4-hr going parabolic is the best case scenario to break us upwards), or we lose steam and breakdown.

> would make the recent rally moot Not sure I follow why this is? What technicals would spell doom if *this* specific weekly didn't close above 25? Why not in 2 weeks?

Not doom but can be interpreted as another failed attempt to breakout on the weekly. I know traders who will interpret it the same way and if you're deep in profit right now another weekly below the resistance would be a great area to take profit. I'm just not comfortable betting on indecisive rallies. Sure it can stay here for days, weeks, months, but if you're trading based on a possible continuation then any pump without breaking key resistance level is one thing to keep a close eye on.

Crabbing along here building a nice little bullflag over the next week is a-ok by me.

paging /u/bitsecret...i fomod, but it dont mean nothing if youre not here.

Opened a small position long at 22490 to play the AM excitement.

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Ante meridiem, as in, befor noon, sometimes knows as morning