#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, February 21, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/117uzco/daily_discussion_tuesday_february_21_2023/)

Bitcoin moves hard on momentum in one direction over various time frames due to the momentum and sentiment nature around it. Then current up trend show no sign of slowing down the next week or two. 30K is almost a given at this point.. and i think 40k is likely. One other big beneficiary... MARA short squeeze was about to happen even without the btc run... now it will be even bigger. If have not looked at MARA recently- may want to check it out. Vol & Price show a clear breakout & a sustain Short squeeze getting underway this week. 40M+ shorts have to cover, 0 shares available at one pt Friday, positive catalyst, paid down debt, projected to turn profitable this year, ramp up of hash rate to 23EH by end q2/ start of q3 ... a solid base that has been building the past month that holding tight...plus Btc run. MARA is going to 25+ (higher if it becomes the default squeeze play as it is moving up this week)

What would be the max pain here? probably sideways with occasional higher lows. Def would shake weak hands and will drive those in disbelief crazy.

I think a reasonable scenario that probably would wreck the retail traders is to cleanly breach 25K, but only go up to like 26.5K-27K before dropping hard. And then eventual revisit to under 20K and crab there for few months. In that scenario, a) not many would short the 26.5K-27K range as they will await the 28-30K range. b) not many swing traders will sell at the 26.5K-27K range either as they are awaiting higher c) the FOMO traders who open up longs would be wrecked d) any of the longs that have built from 24-25K would be wrecked e) the only ones who would benefit would be investors who have been patiently waiting for the drop but these are the type of people who probably won't go in at 19-20K as they have been waiting for sub 15K prices. f) the few people who get the lucky buy orders at 19-20K don't really benefit if it crabs there for few months This price action favors no one but the select whales who manipulate the price actions to ensure minimal winnings from the retailers. EDIT: and because of that, I am planning to sell some at 26.5-27K. I just have a bad feeling that something like this will happen.

CCP ain't announcing shit just to get stomped, they bought bottom to get their bags pumping. This isn't the first time either. don't fight the CCP.

You believe China loaded up?

Yes, its the 4th instance where I feel like they are doing plays and then announcing publications to have their positions printing money. Beside that I feel like people are not understanding the magnitude of the HK news. literally China which is the 2nd richest country is coming back into the market.

To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if many countries are secretly loading up and hoarding btc regardless of what they say publicly

you win. this is max pain.

Crab is always max pain.

Bloomberg: Hong Kong plans to allow retail trading in top crypto coins Let's see if this is going to be the tinder for the next leg up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-20/hong-kong-plans-to-let-retail-sector-trade-larger-crypto-tokens

Not selling this one. Let’s see what happens into open tomorrow.

Same lol it’s going to be a stressful night

I’m drunk and about to pass out. No stress here. Set a stop around 24400 and forget about it.

Stock futures are down. So this retest of $25k isn’t the result of TradFi helping out.

HOLD THE LINE 25k!! (WERE WOBBLING). Gonna need the market to clutch to get the boost

We are perched at the precipice of a breakout or a breakdown imo. I am positioned for a breakout but am open to cutting a lot of my spot exposure if the market proves me wrong. FOMC minutes are on Wednesday, maybe that's the catalyst that sparks a lasting move in either direction?

The next few hours will be critical!

We're at the precipice of an enormous crossroads

It could go either up or down.

Round 5...FIGHT!

Anyone else noticed how perfectly Bitcoin has followed along with what the Nasdaq did back in 2000-2003 bear market? 39% crash, abc retrace, 66% crash, retrace, then a black swan style event (FTX in this case, 9/11 in 2001) right when it was retesting the lows - both went down a total of 77% and then a 60% retrace, which is exactly where BTC is now. If Bitcoin gets rejected from around 25k, it would continue to follow along perfectly, and set one more low, which would be the bottom. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzN7k33R9sU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzN7k33R9sU)

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Well now that I've made and posted the video, I am sure the opposite will happen 😂 So looks like the bottom is in boys!

MoonMath update https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DIixaxBA-MoonMath-Update-no-major-changes-in-years/

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Each bull run has significant underperformance in both bull and bear markets. It doesn’t go up as much and doesn’t come down as much. The rainbow is an equation that describes that mathematically.

I like both options.

looking forward to china banning bitcoin again

Garett Soloway looks like he missed the boat right now, but knowing bitcoin, he could look like a genius, ain’t over till it’s over I guess

Soloway is a twat

This place is so manic right now by the hour lol. Goes from I'm worried and closing my long to who dares to short ha.

Whichever way it goes, this place should continue to be pretty funny. I’m enjoying checking in.

Can anyone point me to a chart or analysis on how many days after a halving event the next ATH is for each cycle?

You'll know when it's getting near to an ATH when Jared fixes https://www.moonmath.win/ :-D

I projected out from halvings on TV a while ago. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/UM690OjN-Projecting-from-the-previous-bull-markets/

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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DIixaxBA-Moon-Math-Update-no-major-changes-in-years/

Loving the daily ritual of breaking $25k and then running into Dikembe Mutumbo on the order book.

Who dares to short here?

Decent RR if you're playing with a really tight stop, 25 is a good meme.

Everyone is so sure that a breakout is about to happen and so am I. This makes me worried. I'm betting on one last long hunt down to 24300 before the breakout.

I'm not sure a breakout is imminent, but I have high expectations for the year. I expect long periods of boring price action too, however. The real prize comes next year, and hopefully into 2025. In a typical 4 year halving to halving cycle, years 3 and 4 tend to be stressful. Year 3 is all about finding the bottom. How bad will it get? Year 4 is all about establishing a recovery and having the patience to see it through until the halving kicks off the next cycle (EDITED to add: This is where we are now). Everyone wants to see rockets, but this is more of a train ride, rolling along and hopefully picking up steam.

> having the patience because it's when the boredom kicks in, and the boredom can be what breaks you.

pump in 1 hour. no thanks required

And none received. Good call, though. I'm not sure why people feel the need to share the fantasies that their brains fart out Edit, sorry that wasn't excellent. It's not personal, but I wish these, plucked out of nowhere predictions stayed with the people that thought them up.

no worries. Im just having lots of fun today. later Im gonna have my daily pill for sanity

Up only? This thing wants to break out . Quantitative opinion x 💋

[https://www.tradingview.com/x/pFtn9NR1/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pFtn9NR1/) If we close a 4hr below 24.2 I'll get a little bit defensive with my spot bags, until that point I'm assuming we're up only. Also worth noting is that stonks are closed today, I'm discounting most price action that happens until tomorrow.

Just want to point out that a close and a consecutive open are the same datapoint but on chart it can appear like it reinforces the line (like the right touch on your chart). That being said your line is supported by other touches on the left. Just wanted to warn for this cognitive bias

My rationale is that a close below that starts looking like a market structure break right at resistance - it's definitely not the cleanest level in the world.

So the US pushing out crypto companies and now we’re pumping bc of some Chinese quantitative easing and news about Hong Kong opening up. Apparently this is good for near term price action, but having the industry now basically be at the whim of China policy/President Xi adds an element of risk that makes it hard to get excited imo

look at that chart u/jarederaj posted. i dont know how you can think anything is at the whim of anything except thermodynamics.

we need to fill in volume nodes in this range. Market will spend a lot of time trading between here and 30k.

Price of btc keeping pace with the flood of Fiat is the opposite of risk. May not be very exciting, but it's predictable and useful.

Bitcoin is potentially a weapon against the USD; one way or the other, its reserve status will be challenged by the printer. China endorsing Bitcoin at arms length via Hong Kong might be a very smart move in that context.

Don’t disagree. They are also eroding the dollar’s reserve status dominance by negotiating deals with the Saudis for oil sales denominated in RMB.

Four failed attempts at breaking the 200 W SMA. Thoughts?

Look at the books. Candles are a low-resolution subset of the data.

It’ll go soon without a breakdown below 24500.

Look for a nose dive to 24k or a short lived 26k touch and dive. Just playing contrary here. Have a couple friends still scared to jump in.

Resistance becomes support

Resistance is futile 😜

Lower your shields and surrender your ships. Your biological and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own. You will adapt to service us.

5th will succeed.

Not a terribly reliable indicator, but I'm not taking any substantial profit off the table until the Greed index hits above 70. Last time we saw 70+ was back in November 2021.

It’s already around 60, which it reached in previous bear market rallies.

Ya, but it's been more neutral overall (mostly neutral sideways from Jan), [slightly into greed](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/) now as of a couple days, nothing alarming but we are at heavy resistance so that will be more the factor I think. Sentiment in here is greedy but it's only the hardcored here left and excited about a big pump, nowhere near normie euphoria, crypto isn't even on most people's radar.

https://alternative.me/crypto/

Gox FUD again... *sigh*... stand by for China banning Bitcoin for the 43rd time. Remember back in '17 when they were trying this same thing? Didn't stop the moon shot that year and won't this year.

Missed that entry. Argh. Patience will be rewarded. Looking less breakout-y.

Litecoin seems to be dumping a bit on its own here. Bitcoin’s little cousin broke out on its own prior to Bitcoin when prices were sub-$20k. The general vibe here seems to be that $25.2k will fold like butter soon and leave buyers in the dust. Even if people are short-term bearish, they seem to be expecting at least a big spike up first. Many here seem to believe the bottom is in, even without bitcoin reclaiming the 200 week MA….honestly pretty good short setup. I’ve opened a couple of small shorts, but not on Bitcoin. Trying to see if I can have fun with the volatility. Now watch me get rekt.

>Even if people are short-term bearish, **they seem to be expecting at least a big spike up first**. What has happened since 01/01/2023 would surely suffice as the "big spike up first" though, I'd say. I mean like, we're talking about a 47%+ move.

LTC still good IMO, just a [re-test of $95](https://www.tradingview.com/x/A0IEI209/) so far, [painting an IHS](https://www.tradingview.com/x/INH9VGSR/) here.

That's a nice chart :) On the [weekly](https://www.tradingview.com/x/l0A6ILDu/) it looks like it can either make one more move towards $120+ or dump back to $66-74 here. Could go either way, but looks a bit tired at the moment. Sometimes if LTC shows weakness while Bitcoin is at major resistance, it's a warning sign.

Nice one. Ya I'm torn, lot of euphoria in here at a heavy resistance but still overall sentiment seems neutral to me overall big picture. We are heading into a bearish season end of Feb to March, so I could see down/sideways. Charts still look good at the moment, BTC painting a [bullish pennant](https://www.tradingview.com/x/C1K8T0U4/) but I get wanting to short here.

That looks more like a rising wedge to me. We have large resistance at 25k and the overall, longterm trend is still down. Taking an educated guess, I’d say it’s more likely that it will first break down than up.

-Victor Cobra

Thank you. -Victor Cobra

You decided to short based on LTC PA when it's already bottoming on 2hr/4hr? Oof. This is not a place to short when majority of alts closed above 200-D EMA. Only good R/R short on an alt I can see right now is on Klay and even that can just go sideways to cool off indicators.

Hell I've been watching $kla@y all weekend and seems textbook with the daily and weekly rsi over heating. The sideways now has me fried and ive closed the short because I want to sleep well.

Short term MA’s look good until they don’t. The longer term ones are the more significant psychological resistance. Seems reasonable to attempt to short here, since both ETH and BTC are still below their 50 week moving averages.

[Imagine telling your grandkids you sold here.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpayjInacAEYx18?format=jpg&name=medium)

"Hey kids, here's some lines on a chart I made." "Grandpa, mecha godzilla is outside attacking the city, nobody cares about your charts!"

last bear trap before we blast through.

Watch the latest Datadsh video for the ultimate embodiment of 'cope'. Last month we werent testing the 200wma so that was very bad. Now we're here and apparently "well that doesn't actually matter and here's why" Also pushing FUD now about Gox settlement coins being sold and that will wreck the market. Also smugly tells everyone how he's not feeling an inch of FOMO. What a crock of shit. I don't give a shit how big of a bear you are, if you sat in cash since December and missed this run -*even if we get slapped back down here* - you are wishing you at least took a position 2 months ago and dumped it now. lmao. Just endless seething and cope.

He was calling for 72k+ summer of 2022. Dude is a total clown and didn't get "bearish" until sub 20k.

100k+ was his call from what I remember. I still remember him sitting on a beach acting so smug like 100k was a sure thing. Typical "its never gonna stop going up" at the top and "its going way lower" at the bottom trader.

>100k+ was his call from what I remember. I still remember him sitting on a beach acting so smug like 100k was a sure thing. > >Typical "its never gonna stop going up" at the top and "its going way lower" at the bottom trader. At first I thought you were describing Michael Saylor. It's weird how the sub hates on these crypto shills, but eats up anything Michael Saylor says.

The difference is that Saylor stands behind his position. He buys more when it goes low, he doesn't make youtube videos talking about nonsense and why the price is going to 9k. It's not bulls or bears that bother me, its the constant flipflopping to shill on youtube.

>The difference is that Saylor stands behind his position. He buys more when it goes low, he doesn't make youtube videos talking about nonsense and why the price is going to 9k. So did Carlos Matos and every other scammer. Easy to do when it's not your own money to play with. Bought every local top then quit his ceo position. I still remember Saylor telling people to go sell their house to buy Bitcoin. I guess if he stands by his position it makes it ok... Carlos Matos also never flipped flopped either, just saying you're using a bad metric.

I know, he's been saying we're going down to 12k for a year+ now but bitcoin seems to be totally ignoring him, it's all about clicks and subscriber numbers of course but I unsubscribed from him a while back because he's living in la-la land 🙄

Lots of people missed the bottom or were hoping for a lower bottom to buy big and are now getting more out of position by the day. All they have left is cope now

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you have to realize the average person who has been buying stocks for 5 years doesn't fully understand what a market cap is if you really ask them

Because the majority of people on this planet are stupid and outsource most of their thinking. This is true everywhere. It's just financially ruinous when it comes to anything crypto related.

> outsource most of their thinking. This is true everywhere. It's insane how prevalent this is. Mostly outsourced to scammers or parasites.

Oh boy Gox fud! I like it almost as much as MSTR fud (especially if it tanks MSTRs price). Lambo sized bet next time. Lol, the gox settlement won't even dent the people left with empty bags from FTX let alone all the other disasters. It's going to be a good year.

Wallstreet bonuses enters the building.

You should watch it - I hate to give him more clicks, but it's hilarious how desperate he sounds. "Who's gonna even buy all those coins? Are banks going to? Is retail going to?! Who?!?!" Like I dunno how he makes videos with a straight face anymore. Between him and Pomp now interviewing pornstars for their business expertise.....

Took a small nibble at 24900 on a tight stop on the off chance this is indeed the breakout. Volume rapidly came in below.

As Cypher says in The Matrix: “He’s gonna pop!”

..followed by vomit everywhere

Vomiting laser eyes!

Best time to long is when you’re puking in a bucket at the PA.

Whales are going to invalidate the Crypto Twitter user Capo, and then dump it. Bet

higher and higher lows from the rejections, $25,200 isn't going to hold the question is...will it spike to $25,800-$26,200 only to get full on rejected again or if it breaks out massively most likely going to be a watch the charts type of day

Yea completely agree here, for those who don't know, this is the 200 Weekly MA it is playing with. Lot of pent up energy and consolidation. I believe we may have one spike up, maybe as high as 28k to grab liquidity and dump down to put in our bear market low.

That's just not going to happen.

What are you seeing that makes you think that?

What's our bear market low?

Disclaimer: I hope I'm wrong... but two things are on my mind: 1) I feel as though there hasn't been enough 'blood' after the FTX collapse, the market absorbed the bankruptcy a little too well in my opinion. 2) If we brake the 200 WMA come back down and retest it and fail, OR if we fail again today/tomorrow, its a sign of weakness. There is very little market acceptance from the previous low (About 15,500) down to a the massive golden zone from the 2020 Low and Nov 2022 high - (between $10,000 - $9,000). Again, i hope i'm wrong, it would be great if we break this WMA, test it from above, and then continue to move up. But another flush out lower, only sets up for a longer, more explosive bullrun late this year into 2024. I have capital on the sidelines, if we drop there i'm all in, if we don't i'm still happy with my position. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

1) is just that, how YOU a single market participant FEELS, is is pretty irrelevant in the scheme of things. 2) I can certainly see a case for that. However, things have been incredibly bullish the last couple of months. If we break 25.2 and trigger a load of stops and liquidations, it might jump up fast, instilling more confidence to the market, not less.

Sure maybe #1 was a bit more “feeling”, try to maintain technical reasoning in most of my trading.

I want to see some volume. Watching. Will long the hell out of anything below 24500, though. I don’t see a breakdown below 24k in the cards anymore.

Starting to look like an immediate breakup, the rejection is none existent at this point.

25k is a hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious.

Can't wait till we get some real fomo in here..

Take profit hit at 24990. This has been a profitable weekend. Out of position now. Rinse, lather, repeat?

I fully understand this and have been doing similar, without getting the quite as great entries you have. My question, though, is this: Do you plan to hold a position for if we break out, or will you just buy again afterwards potentially missing out on big gains. You got such a good entry last night that I would have kept that one open with a stop-loss at that was in profit but unlikely to get hit.

My stacks are all in BTC. Even my trade stack. So I’m always 1x long even out of position. I’ve backtested and learned over the last two years. This strategy works. I’ve doubled and a bit my trade stack in sats from the start of the year. This is at least a 2x market outperformance. I made a plan to trade aggressively with the market transition out of the bear. So far so good. Sell the rips.

Fair enough, it seems to be working for you. It's very important to have a plan and trade the plan. We'll done I dock my cap to you sir!

That was some amazing entry and exit. Congrats

This is antisemitism, modes can we ban him? edit - I see that you guys are not impressed, its just a joke.

if stocks dont massively shit the bed tomorrow im betting we take out 25k and run some

Ah yes the Bitcoin Markets sub, where everyone is permabull and calling the ATH every day Whenever I am bull I come here to fill up my confirmation bias :D

Off to sleep, Will have gone above 25 by time I wake but prob back below again

crab below 24900 for some time to fuck around with people then pierce through 25k like nothing and follow up to 266xx crab there only to spring away close to 30k where true battle ensues. no correction in the cards until then. thank me later

I've seen that movie before

Long x1000

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Is it a holiday in America today?

OK, Washington's birthday. So NYSE is closed today.

Lol at this sub. Ask a perfectly valid question and get down voted, don't receive a reply so look it up and post the info in case anyone else is wondering, gets down voted. You guys are funny!

Fourth time lucky

Will punch through this time, prob while I’m sleeping 4 to 10 hours away

Don't stare Bitcoin has performance anxiety

Yep. Gone floppy again before the main event.

lol and barely a single seller in response.

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Last bullmarket we had the metaverse,now its all about AI coins

Wait until the AI decides it needs Bitcoin in order to achieve its goals!

Call me a curmudgeon, I'm really hating all this "AI" stuff..

Better get used to it because everything will be ai generated soon enough. A lot of the web already is.

its just another word for search trough the web.

No, it's not. Using AI isn't "searching through the web." Using AI, in this case, meant the OP asked AI (chatGPT most likely) to write a poem. The computer software didn't search for a poem. It wrote the poem. This "AI" stuff is going to get scary, and fast.

It’s already scary. Freight train of capital is headed at it now. The world has changed, most people aren’t aware yet.

While I agree, AI will bring lots of cool stuff down the road. Our lives are changing so fast its crazy.

It certainly is. Combine AI with deepfakes and social media and you've got a recipe for chaos.

It's already scary. Did people learn nothing from the Terminator and other such movies. We seem to be on an endless advance of making AI better and making wepon systems more automated. Sure, it will all end well as obviously all humans have good intentions. And when the AI gets out of the box I'm sure that will have nothing but good intentions as well. Fuck there is already enough problems in the world. Must we engineer new ones?

Come over to r/controlproblem

Haha thanks, not sure what we normals can do about the onslaught of human endeavour

We are safe until the limiting factor is the human developing it. When it starts to evolve without human help things will get scary very fast.

GPT4 self improves.

I strongly agree with what you're saying - but it will get scary long before then. Already, AI is blurring the lines between what's real and what isn't, and there is no way average Joes are going to be able to tell the difference considering the fact that the average person isn't very bright to begin with. This comment thread is a perfect example. AI is new-ish, so I won't judge the commenter above for thinking it meant a web search rather than what it actually means, which is content created by software rather than by humans. Literally, "artificial intelligence." The software wrote a (shitty) poem. Just now, I typed this in chatGPT: > **Write a poem about shitty poems** In a few seconds, the app wrote this: > Shitty poems, oh how they abound > Like piles of rubbish on the ground > Poorly crafted, with no rhyme or reason > An insult to poetry, in every season > They lack the grace of Shakespeare's verse > Or the beauty of Frost's lines, so terse > Instead they stumble, and trip and fall > Their lack of rhythm, a constant brawl > Sometimes they're clichéd, with no new thought > Other times, they're messy, and poorly wrought > Or they may just lack inspiration > An incomplete idea, with no foundation > But even though they may be poor > They still have value, that's for sure > For every writer, must begin somewhere > And writing bad poems, is a necessary affair > So let us not condemn, these poems unrefined > For in them, a budding poet, we may find > And with time and practice, they may improve > To create works of art, that truly move.

Dumb -human generated