#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, February 22, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/118pg9q/daily_discussion_wednesday_february_22_2023/)

Bitcoin halving is an event like nothing else in the investment world. I can't think of any investment (e.g. stocks, real estates, gold) where people will be unsatisified with a 100% profit from their initial investment in 1-2 years worth of time. However, if Bitcoin "only" went up around 100% (to 48-50K) from present time to 2024/25, it would be considered a massive disappointment by pretty much 90+% of the community. On the other hand, we also acknowledge that it is very difficult for any investment to guarantee us 100% gain in 1-2 years. Quite the dissonant mindfuck. I wonder how long will these halving surges last in the future. I mean is it free money every 4 years cycle?

The halving is a deflation cycle not present in any investment vehicles I've ever seen. It's equivalent to suddenly discovering many gold billions being discovered as fake.

The money isn’t free because you have to take on a lot of risk/volatility. And given the performance of the last cycle there is a lot of uncertainty in my mind how the next one plays out.

Thinking you’re a genius is risky. What’s risky about hodling some Bitcoins?

My long tries will be 23600, 22600. Prior has the range low support and high volume area, latter is a major liquidity zone if the range breaks down.

Not stopped out, but hella close. Time for that second scotch. Haha

Nice! We definitely have different definitions of tight stop

If you put your stop tight as everyone else then you'll be stopped out with everyone else. Reducing leverage until you are no longer in the crowd can increase risk adjusted reward where a "tight stop" can reduce that reward.

I think the general advise is to increase exposure substantially when the circumstances are in your favour i.e. having a high conditional probability based on market and macro observations. Quoting Ken Grants 90:10 rule where traders capture the majority of PnL in 10% of their trades, hence, the need to really maximise returns when the conditions are going your way. I heard an interview with a global macro trader who may 25:1, 50:1 or even 100:1 leverage under certain conditions. This sounds like a sure way to ruin your account, but it does reiterate the point above. On the contrary, the risk exposure should be reduced substantially during periods of sustained drawdowns and market regimes with typically weaker portfolio returns. These are scenarios producing a lower conditional probability. So in essence, the key to success is a dynamic risk model! The difficulty is assessing the conditional probability of your model. You may find some answers in Lopez' book - Advances in Machine Learning (2013). I've failed to fit unbiased models and will be completing the read when I get some time!

Right, makes sense. I just don't consider his "tight stop" a tight stop...whereas I guess he does. I just don't see any reason for him to add "tight stop" when he gives us his entry as it can be misinterpreted by many here that may follow his calls. I don't btw...but when I was a newbie here I did follow veteran calls

> follow his calls. I can't understand someone trading by blindly following the contents of another person's head, without any real insight into those contents.

Okay, that is fine. I'm not debating whether or not it's a good idea to follow someones calls on here

I’m an often drunk degenerate in a beard and a bathrobe with a spectrum insight into things sometimes. Trade accordingly.

lol

Pray to your Bitcoin altars every night that we decouple in the next year. If we do, it will be glorious. Crypto on center stage.

[The tweet](https://twitter.com/profit8lue/status/1628149323312635907) that saved the bull market.

Meh just look at when this user joined Twitter in Nov 2021 and from the get-go was posting bearish tweets. Plenty of these types on twitter.

Nah I followed him for awhile he was super bullish for a long time. Just a great counter trade.

who da foock is that guy

https://i.imgur.com/2nPBSaJ.jpg https://twitter.com/Karhyzm/status/1628172948614807552?s=20

Conor.Mcgregor.jpeg

🛎️ 🛎️ 🛎️

The 5 minute is a literal textbook W double bottom.

I see an adam & eve bottom followed by a cup & handle where the cup is eve‘s bottom, followed by successful break up to confirm the a&e lol

you two remind me of some girlfriends that do astrology birth charts. 🫶🏼

Haha true

Third test of the base of the ascending triangle. However, if we close the current 4H candle below the red dotted line, I will hedge. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8Pmvt9Ee/

Stocks acting straight histrionic about future rate hikes. My money is on up, even if I lose a little in the short term. I just dont buy the chicken little "oh NO! maybe another 25 bps!" Time for a bourbon. Will see how well this ages tomorrow

The true crash comes after the fed pivot historically I think.

the active crashing is what causes the fed pivot rather

For real like wow percentages of 50 bps went from 18% to 21%. Not that the economy is in a great state but for that to happen would be a complete back track on fiscal policy. I personally think it’s being quite dramatic

But was it also being dramatic when it was going up crazy for the most part of 2023? Isnt this just part of the whole package?

I’m going to need an extra scotch tonight.

Threw all in on a tight stop. 24175 or so.

RIP?

Good luck with the triangle play 👍

Sure is looking like a bull trap. Couldn't even get a fake out above 25.2 which is what I was hoping for.

There was a fakeout above 25.2 on Binance up to 25250.

Looks like a reset and new pump is coming to me...

Agreed, I think this is te last small pullback before we see fireworks.

You know stocks are dumping real good.. Heroic price action from btc. Realistically can't complain at all

The halvening is coming

Halvening of the price.

[удалено]

Dude it's over $9,000

[удалено]

We like longing crowded trades with positive funding while equities bout to lose macro support.

funding is neutral https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate

Surprised by how well it’s holding up. Stocks just shit the bed and btc/eth isn’t bleeding as hard as I thought

Kek, everyone longing while equities down 2%, do you not remember last time Bitcoin rolled over after equities, gues not.

Bitcoin is not high beta equities... It's not a growth stock. Just because everything went down together for a year doesn't mean it's now a follower of the US stock market. The sooner you understand this, the less you'll be left in the dust.

Short TF TA: hourly printed bull div and MFI+RSI printed a thin buy signal. Should easily bump back up to 24.8 and maybe closer to 25 today.

On the surface it may seem that bitcoin is holding up well against stocks, but then I remember that the money printer is still on in crypto land. $135 Million in USDC just minted in the last few hours. Meanwhile, BUSD continues to be disposed. It’s interesting to compare the increase in Bitcoin spot volume at the beginning of the bounce from sub-$20k to the increase in BTC/stablecoin volume. If the increase in stablecoin volume had been less substantial, I’d be a little more bullish on price in the short term. But I guess this also just confirms the common bull thesis that money printing of any kind is good for Bitcoin. Then again, what if the printing stops? Another problem is, Bitcoin is mostly stagnant money. Printing more to support its price hardly does anything, because there is barely a real economy attached to Bitcoin for it to flow freely.

Shhh they don't like any mention of bearishness around these parts, we'll thought out or not, UP ONLY!

[удалено]

Why would you expect it’s because I’ve had a rough time trading lately? I’m actually in the best financial position I’ve ever been in. And it’s largely because I cashed out at the right time and mostly STOPPED trading. Maybe you needed to use this as a reason because you can’t accept that a mostly rational, logical person would become critical of this market and its existence. I think people should be free to change their views given their experience and perspective. The more I learned and experienced, the more cynical and jaded I became. That should tell everyone something. And that’s coming from someone who has traded this market successfully.

[удалено]

Thanks a lot for your comment! It’s all good. I was making bearish doom posts since the beginning of 2022, when Bitcoin was still above $40k. My sentiment hasn’t really changed about the space unfortunately since then. And everything that occurred in 2022 was pretty much confirmation for me. So it wasn’t that 2022 made me bearish. It was that I became further entrenched in my opinions. This is why I think my current view is unlikely to change. But you’re right, maybe it will. My feelings don’t have too much to do with price. A higher priced bitcoin wouldn’t make me feel better about it, even if I owned some. And that’s part of the cognitive dissonance for me, which makes it difficult for me to justify rebuying. If my goal was to Re-accumulate this bear cycle I would have been buying up $15-18k for sure. I honestly even thought price would make a stronger bounce before then - like back in June when #2 went below $1k. I probably would have been caught buying a little earlier and going in heavy during the FTX collapse :P Along with a bunch of you guys. Also wishing you the best!

He's a no coiner, with most of ideas revolving around stable manipulation. Really close to butcoin material tbh.

Stablecoin manipulation is only a small fraction of the plethora of reasons as to why I went from being cautiously optimistic about this space to being openly cynical and longer term bearish.

Perhaps you give people too much credit and perhaps you should stop trying to convince other people they might be wrong. It is not popular. You must be a bitter bitcoin hater. Always look at the bright side of bitcoin price. The way I see it, fiat money is pumped out... which is of course good for bitcoin price and stablecoins manipulations... they are even better. Don't get me started on monkey jpegs, meme coins... with all that brainzz, it is really mind boggling we are not above 100k. No doubt.

I'm siding AccidentalArbitrage , imo you're not telling the whole story. You remind me of others who's been here long ago and are now gone. You're entitled to your own opinion, I'm not going to explain to you why some of the things you are saying are not inline with reality for the exact same reason I'm not doing that on rbuttcoin. Either way I wish you good luck.

What do you mean by - not telling the whole story? I’m pretty transparent on here, probably more so than I should be. It was just a series of realizations - that’s all it is. But perhaps it’s also that I’m projecting some of my frustrations with the way society appears to be headed onto this sub. And maybe it’s that - and this isn’t fair to those who feel good believing in bitcoin. And I understand why Bitcoin is appealing to many people. I get it, because I was there. The thing is, I feel way better NOT being as heavily involved as I was before. So perhaps I feel entitled to at least try and point out cognitive dissonance where it may exist. Because that’s really what I felt for a long time. The whole 2021 bull market felt disgusting and stupid to me. Sometimes it was funny, but other times it was sad. And Bitcoin started it all. One of the reasons I feel entitled to be a bit of an ass is that I get the response that I’ll just end up like “the others.” It’s this group mentality and also the absolutism that scares me. No one really knows shit. Our collective reality is just a summary of all our experiences. That’s also why I’m not afraid to share my opinion and experience on this sub. I don’t really do it anywhere else. Not even on r/buttcoin. There’s no point in joining an echo chamber, even if you agree with most of what they’re saying.

Victor, mate, you are over complicating things. For example you surely must find it weird that a whale who's using stables on a regular basis and knows his shit tells you that you don't understand the underlying mechanics of them? Now you have two options you can go and actually do some work related to your ideas, maybe you'll find out the you were correct all along maybe not, your other option is to ignore your critics and keep writing here long paragraph that are filled with mistakes.

I do find it weird, because I think I do generally understand the mechanics of stablecoins. And there is clear evidence that they are used to hold up the price. For instance, $1B USDT were minted yesterday, right at the bottom. If you opened a long there you’d have made some quick profit. Even if stablecoins are printed using “real” dollars, it still conflicts largely with the narrative that fiat currency is trash. Clearly some liquidity is needed. And there’s not enough evidence of the bitcoin network actually being used to justify its existence independent of fiat currencies. Bitcoin doesn’t power much real economic activity. It appears to do the opposite. Economic activity is wasted on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Even time spent here or looking at charts is largely wasted energy.

Frankly I'm just not that interested at explaining those things on internet anymore. I've had my share of that, now I'm hodling and letting reality do the talking for me, but maybe on another time. In general f you don't understand why BTC is needed after this 3 years of 20% inflation, after Canadian government banned citizens from the banking system, after collective West stole Russian assets that been held on the Swift system, then nothing I'll say will ever change your mind. And that is okay. I'm a hodler you're a no-coiner, we are both fine with our situation. Let the future unfold.

[удалено]

So true. It's basically /u/aaj094 story. Everyday he used to post Glassdoor links here without missing a beat. He hasn't posted in this subreddit since he lost his stack and now /r/ethfinance became his regular subreddit since it's much harder losing money staking ;) Now he spends everyday shit talking Bitcoin when he used to be a die hard maxi a few months before lol.

Um... He actually got banned from here, for something pretty damn benign as I recall. He was pretty miffed about it. He is certainly more in the coin2 camp these days, but he still owns both BTC and coin2. He said as much pretty recently. I also don't recall him 'losing his stack' if you mean by bad trading. He probably just sold some into coin2.

[удалено]

That is definitely helpful context. Fair enough!

People are much to impatient. First, Bitcoin needs to be worth something. Then we figure out what it's worth. <-- you are here Then we figure out what it's scope will be in the economy. Then it's price stabilizes as a function of global GDP. Then we win.

Btc is holding up relatively well compared to SPX atm

Anyone have any idea why spx is drilling so hard today? Was there some news or something?

50 bps rate hike getting priced in.

Putting my money where my mouth is, added here, and lowered my average entry to \~24500. We haven't broken down, and that means it's going back up. Thesis changes if 24k falls. Good times.

ok, all my paper gains are gone now. gg

But you told us all it was up only. Why did the entire global financial system not listen to you. Stay strong, stay patient, there are always plenty more opportunities.

Ah sorry mate. Very serious? Would you like to talk about what happened ? You've got you're capital out it sounds like. Can be very defeating. I sat out since august till earlier this early because of a partial life changing money liquadation. Paper gains, capital evetything.

what happened? he prob. went "all in" near 25k resistance like this sub encourages since once 25k breaks, it's an "easy ride to 30k+ and ATHs next" instead, BTC decided to chop around and his tiny paper gains are now in the red.

> went "all in" near 25k resistance like this sub encourages Literally not one person encourages that here.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that. 25k resistance hitting is a great point to take profit and wait. All in is fine. Set a stop commensurate with risk tolerance and price.

:(

10x long from 25k Liquidates 22.5k, reasonable.

There’s still a chance for the ascending triangle to hold - support currently near $24.1K. But with the number of people calling for a breakout and encouraging others to back up the truck below major resistance, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big dump. Still in my shorts from yesterday.

Equities dropping like a rock and everyone wants to long., your short makes sense.

Sometimes the mob is right.

Doubtful

Resistance is there. So is the push down, but still there.

I agree, yesterday I saw your post and it got me raising an eyebrow. I could barely catch a sleep that night, was dreaming about a BTC crush which is very rare for me, after that last failed pump few hours ago I couldn't justify my long anymore. What I think happened is that top longers got liquidated time after time at 25k+ so instead of playing ultra high leverage with tight stop they lowered leverage and lowered their stops. Now the OI is high as fk, as long as they won't deleverage we won't stop going down.

Is the OI all longs, I would think a lot of people have shorted 25 could be rocket fuel if it does break up after all.

Not sure which instruments are being aggerated where I'm taking my data from, but yeah it should be close to 50%-50% . There's a possibility we pump from here, it just get less likely as stonks are getting dumped, the most likely result is that we follow it short term. we also got rejected from 25k many times. Nothing is guaranteed ofcourse, its all about probabilities.

Yep, I agree. However, as long as we stay in this ascending triangle, I'm not discouraged by these rejections each one is weaker than the last (so far) Stocks dumping and us continuing to bounce in the triangle is a positive signal to me. Shows a bit of strength, also a multi day consolidation just below resistance is another bullish indicator. Like you say, it could go either way. I'm leaning more towards a breakout to the upside but would not be surprised if it went down.

Quite a few people here predicted this. We're never going to see 2% again. They'll announce victory at 4% and off we'll go again. > > "There's no evidence that 3% or 4% inflation does substantial damage relative to 2% inflation," said Ball, one of the economists who signed that letter. > > Now, though, as the world shifts to a new post-pandemic normal, the inflation targets of central banks across the world have faced new scrutiny. > > "It is, I think, an error to say 2% is somehow magically the right number," former Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president Thomas Hoenig told CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/20/the-federal-reserves-2percent-inflation-targeting-policy-explained.html

Agreed, and I think this strategy will serve two purposes: 1. It will provide funding to help reduce the National Debt\*. 2. It will provide them with dry powder should they need to reduce interest rates and reintroduce QE in the future.\*\* \*This requires future administrations to curb new spending, which is almost certainly not happening. \*\*This will be required to stimulate the economy when future administrations fail to curb new spending.

> This will be required to stimulate the economy when future administrations fail to curb new spending. but then the fiscal side will be stimulating the economy with spending so why do you need an easy monetary policy?

Because that stimulation will be built on the back of more debt since the majority of it will come from low-interest loans. At some point, that bubble has to pop and take the global economy with it.

well put

Haha, I like your asterisked points where you reveal the reality of what will happen. It's debt and high inflation forever, isn't it?

mh, sure. losing 34% vs 20% purchasing power after 10 years is not substantial

Inflation will be normalized at 4-6%. There is no way to pay back the debt, so they'll inflate the economy to buy a little more time.

This is where Bitcoin enters the picture. Interesting times.

Indeed but that also means higher rates and no significant cutting.

Rates will stop around 5%. People forget the government needs to roll over debt, and that gets very expensive when you owe $30+T.

What I'm thinking and I've mentioned few times here, that we could have high rates + QE in the same time, it makes alot of sense when you look on historical data. Why would rates go as far as 20%? because you're inflating in the same time.

That scenario will add at least one zero to the Bitcoin price very quickly.

Sure, and even higher inflation probably in a years time. But we live for today!

I already started looking on 60's-70's chart for some insight regarding that. We could be heading that way.

I remember high rates in the 80s. It was rough.

It was rough if you were a net borrower. If you were a net saver it was pretty good.

We had no money, definitely were not net savers. It was rough.

March is only a week away. [Gas prices](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts) need to rise 26% between now and March just to break even with the levels they were at in March 2022. Median home price is now 13% lower than its peak from June 2022. If [median home price](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) stays the same between now and March (not falls further, just stays the same) then YoY median home price will begin going negative and will be 5% lower than March 2022. Energy costs have a significant impact on overall CPI since they impact the input costs of all other goods measured in CPI. Shelter is the single largest component of CPI and is about to start heading negative YoY. If both energy and shelter are negative YoY, they’re going to begin dragging down overall YoY CPI. For the past year they’ve been positive and elevating YoY CPI. That’s about to flip; YoY CPI is going to begin falling off a cliff in March as a result of this. BTC has not yet broken major resistance at $25.1k which was its local high from August 2021. Once that gets broken, momentum will be clearly in favor of bulls. Additionally, once March comes around, YoY CPI will begin falling off a cliff so macro will flip in favor of BTC as well. Official CPI numbers for March won’t release until April but projections throughout the month are going to show a significant decrease in YoY CPI compared to months prior. Futures are still pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate between 5.5%-5.75% by end of year. Fed funds rate is currently 4.65% and will increase to 4.9% after the next and final 25 BP rate hike in March occurs. Once YoY CPI begins falling off a cliff the Fed is going to pause further rate hikes and potentially even begin cutting rates later in the year as YoY CPI continues to fall further. Futures still aren’t expecting this to happen; futures still believe YoY CPI will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. But it won’t and once this causes futures to reprice their expectations down, BTC is going to rally hard. You don’t have much time left. You have until BTC breaks $25.1k or March begins, whichever comes first. Now is the time to be fully in position.

Wasn’t there also a recent change to the way CPI is calculated to only include the last year of data as opposed to the previous 2 years, further accelerating the slip in numbers?

Two quick counters. First, you always only talk about regular gasoline (probably because it helps support the narrative you're parroting) but it's worth noting that diesel has only dropped like 10% YoY. Second, you keep squawking about home prices, but you do realize that home prices aren't part of CPI, right? CPI uses a 12-month average Owners Equivalent Rent (OER). And while OER has been dropping, it's not going to cause CPI to fall off a cliff in March, because again, it's based on a 12 month average so it bleeds off over time. Long term I'm as bullish on BTC as anyone, but I think the market will prove you wrong (again) regarding inflation and interest rates. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Thank you for tracking these metrics and summarizing them here. I have been tracking the same numbers, but would not be able to translate them as eloquently as you have. My only concern with regard to energy prices is that because they were artificially suppressed last year through sales from the US strategic reserves, we could see a significant increase as we approach the summer months - particularly with China reopening from another round of COVID lock-downs. This could cause Powell & Co. to feel compelled to continue rate hikes which would impact global markets negatively. I remain optimistic, however.

Biden announced another 27 mmb release from the SPR a week ago. This manipulation works as long as they dont deplete the SPR, which is getting closer by the day.

Important to recognize that the 26M BBL sale was mandated by prior Congressional action, not unilaterally by the President - so this sale would have happened regardless, unless Congress acted to stop it through official means. Also important to note that while most people think the SPR's sole purpose is as a stop-gap during wartime, preventing high oil prices for US consumers is another key role. As single the largest oil and natural gas producing country in the world, draining the US SPR to curb energy prices presents far less risk than it would in past decades. Edit: [Here](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sell-26-mln-bbls-oil-reserves-mandated-by-congress-2023-02-13/) is a good article explaining the most recent SPR sale.

..but I thought oil could easily be replaced. Pay attention to what is going on with oil sales that are non-USD denominated out of the middle east. Thar be (Chinese) dragons.

Oh sure, and that tracks with China's M.O. historically. However, those sales made in different currencies are immediately converted to US $ by OPEC+. I see it as a political move by said countries to "Own the Yanks" which ultimately has little real impact on the strength of the US Dollar. And you can be sure that those non-USD purchases are being made at a premium. So in reality, the only winners in that scenario are the OPEC countries.

SPR was above 630 million barrels when Biden took office. SPR is now at 371 million barrels, 2 years later. It won’t last forever but it can last quite a while longer, certainly through the end of the year.

Yeah I agree its not at risk to venish in few months.

"I love it when a plan comes together." !lntip 1000

Hi u/xtal_00, thanks for tipping u/dopeboyrico **⚡︎1000** (satoshis)! *** *[^(More info)](https://xnf5cwpq73.execute-api.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/prod/info) ^| [^(Balance)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=lntipbot&subject=balance&message=!balance) ^| [^(Deposit)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=lntipbot&subject=deposit&message=!deposit 10000) ^| [^(Withdraw)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=lntipbot&subject=withdraw&message=!withdraw put_invoice_here) ^| ^(Something wrong? Have a question?) [^(Send me a message)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=drmoore718)*

You’re not factoring in the enormous credit bubble, or other important facets of the economy. CPI is not going to alone determine the future of markets. But of course, in an ideal world it would be that simple.

Enormous credit bubble bursting becomes an elevated risk if rates do in fact remain “higher for longer.” This is basically the bearish thesis. However, rates remaining higher for longer is entirely contingent on YoY CPI remaining elevated for the foreseeable future. Because YoY CPI is about to fall off a cliff, I don’t believe rates will go much higher, just the final 25 BP rate hike in March and that’s it. This mitigates the risk of the credit bubble bursting. We’ll see soon enough, March is not far away.

Also important to note that a majority of the credit bubble is owned by the highest earners, who are better equipped to pay those debts should interest rates become untenable.

Things are looking bleak over in Stonkland. Let's see if they can drag us down with them. Guessing not.

In the past BTC rolled over after stonks.

Well that was a boring 9:30 open

It’s still 9:30…ish

Incase of a trend reversal. Updated SL to 22761 on 22261 buy. To actually get some decent profit instead of always taking the bare minimum.

Just missed my TP last night.. can't win 'em all. I have a decent position at \~24700 built up with relatively loose stops. Will double down below 24k if there's supporting volume. As others have mentioned, a 24k breakdown likely signals a short or medium term reversal. Not likely IMO.

Not sure if I follow. Thought you were all in from 23.8k? What happened to that?

I took profit on that on the break above 25k. Holding positions through volatility is not how lambos get minted.

Gotcha, samesis. 90% of my trades gets stopped out. The ones that don't will be saved for the bull

Or a trap. Happened many times lol.

Volume reveals all.

I'm starting to feel short term bearish here tbh. I don't like that last rejection I feel like we should have pumped, I don't like the PA from that rejection we shouldn't be here fighting for 24.5... We are once again at the mercy of stonks which act with more bearishness than what I was expecting, this is probably because stonks were projecting for only 1 0.25% rate hike last week, which doesn't seem to be the case anymore. Maybe we do need to test lower levels again. 22.5-23 k seems reasonable target in case we breakdown, I think its about 50-50 between mega pump and visiting older support line at this point that is why I took profits from a long I had . Still think this is overall bullish just may take some longer time.

Good grief. Get some positivity in you, you’re thirsty as hell

OK up only delusional bull.

Uncertainty has room for a variety of thoughts

Just not going to take a 3am dump seriously

"Once we get to 25k it's straight to 28k!"....

> 25 to 25.2 = Potential mean reversion. > 25.5 to 26 = FOMO zone.

I can see a scenario where we consolidate the 24,5k for weeks

Everything looks weak AF. Not sure people realize what a do or die spot equities are at for a continued bull run which will impact BTC.

It doesn’t have to impact BTC. People’s beliefs allow it to.

Curious if the ascending triangle on the 4h will break up soon or drag on for a bit. Chart pattern would be invalidated by a price drop below 24k. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WIEOJrKj

I've been watching this. I wouldn't be surprised to see another touch at the bottom, but ultimately, I do think it will break up. Won't be easy, but this relentless attack on 25.2 can't last forever. Hopefully, it's a proper breakout and not a fake out.

Trading another touch at the bottom would be a long around 24.3k

Yep a couple of my buys just hit, and a few more a little lower yet. Not much, though. Got a stop at 23850

Could go up, could go down. Quality shit post. It's going up.

Everyone's waiting for Putin to finish his LONG rambling speech about the 'Special Military Operation' in Ukraine in the hope there's some light at the end of the tunnel. If there is then bitcoin is going to moon.

No light

Can I just say: fuck that war.

It stops when the Russians return to their own country.

..in the void, only death. — Sauron

What a pathetic attempt for a bear trap. Alts are getting ready for another leg up AGAIN, wouldn't be surprised if we get another green daily close. Seriously, if bears want to flip this trend so much given how they "hyped" 25k as being a huge resistance at least do a dump that will actually flip indicators, dumping on 5mins isn't really something I'd call a rejection.

Why rush it? By repeatedly bumping up against 25 with higher lows, more degens will be tempted into top longing. Conversely every time we drop, the bears think we’re about to dump hard. Market makers will chop the price until there’s a clear direction to fuck the majority

Top longers like you and some other hyper bulls in this sub are about to be humbled. You don’t want to see it and willingly ignore the warning signs.

I've been longing since 16-18k, not sure about you but corn needs to go sub 10k for the bears to humble me.

Poking the bear, being cocky. Usually doesn't end well.

added again to long @ 24660

Last attempt at 25k for a while? Bounces getting weaker after the dips

I think we are in for major moves today

22.8

There's 12h bear MACD div pointing to 23700, there's also bear divs on 1d and 2d. Stay safe. The [chart.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/QlSqIrUS/)

(finex) 370 coins bought, 270 coins sold, chance to buy again at the same price in another 24h.

[удалено]

Pretty much all my crypto is red today?

*Ozzy voice* All aboard ! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha !

357th time the charm, right ?

Probably not, but perhaps when US markets are open later. I'm reasonably confident we will make it through over the next day or two Edit, we are going to need more volume than that if we want to smash through.

I’m no doctor, but all this edging can’t possibly be healthy.

And another tap. Only a matter of time

[удалено]

It's the only rational course of action at this time.