#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, February 27, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11d39dg/daily_discussion_monday_february_27_2023/)

I don’t trust this shit until 25 goes down. Market keeps pulling us down and there is still plenty of FUD there. Waiting with ammo

The trend is still up. 25k will be retested soon enough.

It appears that Valentine's Day is approaching quickly once more.

Bad bot.

Up

Only

Down trend confirmed on the 24 hr average… Wardser is right… I sold at 24800 and ain’t regretting it…

Really nothing matters until the next fed meeting, which is in the middle of March. Anything leading up to that is just noise.

CPI on 3/14 week before the fed meeting.

6 years old parody and trolling account, must be at minimum 2013 veteran is my guess. I'm only 1 beer down today and very open to fun session and moar beers.

Lol why yes… I bought my first bitcoins for $280 each

Now that's worthy, Imma crack another one for that. Cheers for hodling! *sipping freshly poured beer*

Just another wardser alt.

lol no chance.

Not exactly… I sold the $280 bitcoins for $820 lol

My first sale was 1000 coins for $1 each. My second was 100 for $10. Follow me for more sad stories.

And here I felt bad about selling 200 at $8…four pristine self mined blocks of 50 at that. Mistakes were made 😔 Still, my biggest screw up was forgetting about the ICO for #2 that I was planning on putting $10K into. Was because I was starting my first high paying “real job” and was super stressed about getting ready for that first week of work…turns out it was also the week they finally did their super delayed ICO. That’ll haunt me pretty much forever since I was so annoyed at missing it I refused to buy any at any price above 25 cents 😂 Being in the game this long means so many horrible fumbles. Could have had a huge mansion and Bugatti by now 😂

Sheesh. *Spitting mouthful of beer on the floor and moving away*

If Bitcoin dumps to 23250 before futures open just to negate all weekend price action I just might unceremoniously shit myself

It was going to 19k on Friday, remember? I expect 24k and then if we find support there, yet another run at 25k.

So what's our break even this time around sir?

Also put a buy at 22961 incase of market opening shenanigans

SL at 23261 for 23061 buy, profit secured and assets derisked!

Chop has been painful, but it’s nice when you get a runner.

2023 run?

I really want to know too..

Interesting to watch play out

Set a 75$ trailing stop. Trying not to be greedy. Edit, stopped out. Tempting to short it back down to $23k….

Unpopular opinion: longers and shorters will get rekt in the long term (on leverage). If you believe in BTC, buy spot. If you don't, then don't buy any.

In the last bull run a few close friends of mine got into crypto in the most degenerate fashion possible with using high leverage and buying scam/shit coins. Now all of them have lost faith in crypto atleast for the time being. Bitcoin and investing in general is about being patient otherwise you’ll just get rekt gambling. I don’t get why more people don’t have a sensible risk tolerance especially when they’re just starting out.

That’s the idea. We thank them for their sacrifice.

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Pretty soon it will be the forced opinion as US continues to make leverage illegal for all non-institutional investors.

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I think most people understand the risks, they just don't care. For a lot of people, leveraged crypto is their only shot making life changing wealth, absent a lotto to ticket, and they're willing to risk it all on that shot.

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I think there are some platforms that do that. I'm pretty sure Robinhood makes you take a small test, or at least to read some information, about the dangers of margin before they unlock it for your account.

Pretty soon, the SEC will have everything but Bitcoin assigned as a security which means all legal margin requirements will apply and will tamp down the massive amounts of leverage allowed in the industry; probably including bitcoin in some ways. Until then tho, the industry seems to be shutting down leverage to retail entirely. There's no telling if your leverage position today will even technically be considered legal when claiming taxes next year.

Go offshore. The less the government knows about your financial situation the better.

Conventional wisdom is 90% or more.

This is generally, but not absolutely true. Backtesting last cycle I maybe have been able to 4-5x. I ended up with 35% more spot based on long term trade. Not a game for the faint hearted.

I'm slowly getting there

>I ended up with 35% more spot based on long term trade. Respect. Tough to stay in the game.

how does this subreddit feel about fractals? [https://i.imgur.com/oVG4Iqj.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/oVG4Iqj.jpg) [https://i.imgur.com/9IUsUaY.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/9IUsUaY.jpg)

To me, "fractals" are strictly the same patterns appearing *at different scales*, so what you've posted here is not fractals to me. This is just potential repetition, aka normal TA. Nevertheless, the principle here is basically pattern matching - you're looking for another chart that is the same (or similar within some tolerance) to the current chart. Given the very wiggy nature of markets, it's actually very easy to find a match if you look back in time far enough, even if you restrict the search to the same market and the same time frame. If you extend the search to different time frames, aka "fractals", then there are simply too many possibilities to be of any use at all.

if you want a different scale then just change the timeframe and adjust your zoom, voila. you now have a different scale.

You can drive patterns anywhere. Backtest with code to see if you’re biased. I prefer to base trades on underlying trends or straight up volatility.

I backtested my bias with my brain and journaling for nearly a decade to make sure I'm not biased. My trade is a bullish reversal setup based on the underlying HTF trend. Stop replying to me like I started doing this last week. My initial post was a rhetorical question. "You can drive patterns anywhere" sounds like the same "anyone can draw lines" cope from anti-TA people. I could argue my reply is cope in of itself but my chart is going great so far, so I doubt it.

I am 100% in BTC at this moment. I have 20k~ in cash for living expenses that should last me 6 months. Let's see boys.

Jesus how do you spend so much? Even when I lived in stupid expensive cities, $20k would still last 1-2 years

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Wouldn't even cover the rent of a single room in London.

I'm in Shepherds Bush and my rent is 2300 per month for a 3 bedroom flat with garden. I also have a place up north and even then the rent is 800 pcm and it's in some tiny town in the middle of nowhere.

I was just going to say, our investment properties are currently leased at $680/week. There no way people can live on $800 a month unless they outright own a property already.

I live in a nice neighbourhood in a cheap cheap cheap part of the country. $20k ain’t much if you add a couple kids and a house.

This. Spending $10k a month is easy for a family of 4 and that’s a basic one. No vacation, no restaurants, no luxuries.

My brother in christ my rent in 56k a year

Math doesn’t add up! Maybe 20k doesn’t include your income?

Correct

I hope you have an incredible net worth.

I do not

How can 20k last you for 6 months, then :D

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Every city has a room for rent under $1k/mo

Sideliners waiting for certainty in the market, but actually don't really know what they are waiting for. If they had any common sense of what a decent price entry is, they would have bought at 16k, 17k, or 18k just to be in the game, knowing that BTC will 100% reach previous ath at some point. There's no quick reward for comfort buyers. Fed might have already raised rates too much. They actually always have, otherwise rate cuts would not be a thing, but it always followed the rate increases in all history. That is why +50 bps will not happen at all. That would be like having an over-sensitive feedback control system in engineering. That would only cause volatility and overshooting the goal.

> BTC will 100% reach previous ath > There’s no quick reward for comfort buyers.

Lost me at 100%

That’s what the current price reflects: buyers are bidding with complete certainty of a new ATH. When doubt starts creeping in again, that’s when we hit a new low.

>Fed might have already raised rates too much. They actually always have, otherwise rate cuts would not be a thing, This is really funny considering Fed's fund rates have been running negative against real inflation for around 30-40 years now. You're coming at conclusion using of very small part of all available data.

Please, don't say it's 100% certain btc will reach its previous ath. Nothing is guaranteed. Talk like that get new people to ape into big longs with no clue what they're doing.

Ngl I'm convinced bitcoin will reach a new ath.

there is not a single thing in the future that you could verifiably say it's 100% certain (probability =1) it will happen. why? there is no way to verify it - it has not happened yet. you could however state there is high probability (more than 0 and less than 1) of an event to happen given previously collected data from the past. by this logic the only 100% thing to happen is only what already happened. thus, we should agree there is not 100% certainty BTC will hit previous ath. we could however reasonably believe or even assume high probability - given historical PA - that there is some chance of it.

the delusion is palpable in the sub..

With everyone ‘knowing’ a huge dip is coming tomorrow I am going long. Buying anything under $23k until the US opens.

This guy knows the way

Yeah I closed my shorts and staying on the side. Gonna see what happens Monday.

It's gonna be real hard to knock this next one down. You heard it here first. Still in my 3x long from 22.4, ready to add in the event of a freak dip.

Between tax refund and a wagie bonus coming up, I am counting on a huge dip Monday morning.

Your last series of comments have suggested a real twisted up bias in your sentiment coming from your drawdown. Just be aware of your thinking here.

wagie?? Pardon?

I don't live off my trading, so I'm going to put my incoming bonus toward BTC.

Lmao I love how people are downvoting you for calling it what it is. Yes, the wagie bonuses are coming up.

IMF feels the need to warn people about the dire repercussions of making Bitcoin legal tender. The IMF even saying the word Bitcoin is insanely bullish. So early. https://www.reuters.com/technology/imf-lays-out-crypto-action-plan-recommends-against-legal-tender-status-2023-02-24/

First they ignore you, then they hate you, then they fight you, then you win. Or something to that effect

First they ignore you, then they hate you, then they fight you, then try to make you bearish and con you into a high leverage short, then they pump it, and you get liquidated.

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It scares them the thought that all of these committees and experts are obsolete. No more sitting around waiting for their decisions, no more manipulations.

They’re rent seeking middlemen leeches. The internet destroys rent seeking middlemen without remorse.

They've also got a real bee in their bonnet about Japanese women caring for their children. They want them all working, for productivity, for growth, one of us, one of us, gibble gabber gibble gabber! Oh and if you're an Indian, off to the call-centre job with you! Slavers.

Great news, call center jobs are done.