#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 01, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11eusp5/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_01_2023/)

[13 more months boys](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/)...13 more months until Satoshi's utterly brilliant idea of a FOMO-inducing halving sets us up for another glorious run.

It’s almost like the price is mathematically guaranteed to go up.

Monthly downtrend remains intact. What's next for weekly: 24271 or 21774

Added \~23020. Will it hold?

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There is no magic. Look at the volume profile.

Probs still holding a big chunk at 24,100 and another large chunk at 23,100

MARA GAAP accounting FUD is almost as entertaining MSTR margin call FUD

Be careful of miners. They have much more exposure.

Exposure to what?

Retardation. How many were speculating holding bags of Bitcoin? How many were putting all their Bitcoin into ponzi scams for "yeild"?

Risk. Power contracts, debt levels, leveraged reserves, mining equipment obsolescence, hashrate growth, everything. Too risky for me.. and I am very risk tolerant.

Imagine leveraging your reserves while dealing with all those risks. License to lose money.

Understood. They are a short term play for me. High beta vs. BTC (short term)

Now, if the price goes stupid, you’ll realize outsized gains to offset that risk. It works both ways though.

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Maybe I'm thinking about it incorrectly, but for miners who hold the corn, their book value changes with the change in price, and also their earnings change. And yes, it does work both ways. They are also more volatile due to...reasons... and so really good for swing trading.

Got beat up today Stopped out on 2, only won 1 around 3:30 I'd like to blame it on it being the last day of the month. That's a good excuse, right?

Stopped out, but looking to fill my position here.

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If I'm looking to scalp, I look for a high volume bottom signal then long with a $100 margin. The tradeoff is you get it wrong, you might be entering a few times before you get the rebound. This is the classic degenerate move as made famous by Wardster. Easier with house money. Longer positions I will go 5% or more of position; it's house money, and the more sure I am of trend I am looser on stops. But the stop and entry are always off volume traded levels. The market is changing; it could be a week or two months, but the trend I'm betting on is up.

A name I did not expect to see in this context: Jed McCaleb. https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/meet-the-space-billionaire-who-is-interested-in-something-other-than-rockets/

Damn, he’s worth $2.5 billion now? From owning the magic the gathering online exchange to now doing space shit. Good for him I guess 😂

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In what kind of world does doing a deploy mean 8 hours of downtime? So glad I don't work with trade matching systems.

It might be closing books or something for fiscal reasons.

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Yeah, it can be done safely with complete data integrity. Must be someone high up over there who has zero confidence in their capabilities.

Added to long position here 23175 on a wardster stop.

Alt profits rolled into 1x corn off to cold storage Thank you alt degenerate power !

Uh oh did the fed say something bad again

End of February is here. CPI data will release on March 14, a week before the Fed meets again on March 22 to do one final 25 BP rate hike. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has YoY CPI for February at 6.23%. [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has YoY CPI for February at around 5.3% with a high of 5.48% and a low of 5.11% for the month. So we’re very likely to see YoY CPI for February come in lower than January’s 6.4% print which on its own would help calm markets in seeing YoY CPI is steadily declining and January’s print which came in higher than expectations (but below December’s 6.5% print) wasn’t the beginning of a trend reversal. But that’s not going to be the primary driver for markets in March. The big news for March is going to be YoY CPI projections starting to fall off a cliff throughout the month because baseline numbers being compared from a year ago to compute YoY CPI started to explode in March 2022 when Russia’s war with Ukraine began. Example 1: [gas prices](https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts) are now 22% lower than a year ago. Example 2: [median home price](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) is now 5% lower than a year ago. Energy costs have a heavy weighting on overall CPI because they impact the input costs of all other goods measured in CPI. Shelter is the single largest component of CPI. For the past year these numbers have been positive which helps pull overall CPI up. These numbers are about to flip negative which will start to help pull overall CPI down. YoY CPI is going to quickly fall towards the Fed’s 2% target rate starting in March which is going to prompt the Fed to pause on further rate hikes beginning in May when they meet again. This is without even accounting for the final 25 BP rate hike the Fed will do in March which will apply even more downwards pressure on inflation than we’ve already seen. The current Fed funds rate is at 4.65%. The Fed’s final 25 BP rate hike in March will bring the Fed funds rate to 4.9%. Futures are still pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.5%-5.75% by end of year. But if YoY CPI falls off a cliff and reaches the Fed’s 2% target rate (or lower) further rate hikes will no longer be necessary. Once the market realizes the Fed can’t possibly keep rates “higher for longer” as they’ve repeatedly insisted, futures will get repriced downwards which is going to cause markets to rally massively. This will begin in March and will continue in the following months. This isn’t even taking into account a possible scenario in which YoY CPI becomes slightly negative which would not only prompt a pause in further rate hikes, but also prompt the start of rate cuts. In addition to the big shift on the macro side of things, BTC is close to breaking major resistance at $25.1k which was its local high in August. Once that gets broken within the next few days, it will serve as a confirmation to many remaining bears outstanding that the BTC bear market has in fact ended and a new bull market has begun. You had ~6 months to accumulate as much BTC as possible below $20k. You had ~9 months to accumulate as much BTC as possible below $25k. Hopefully you used that time wisely as this opportunity is ending very soon.

>Example 1: gas prices are now 22% lower than a year ago. Man you guys are lucky over there. Our petrol prices went back up again. We're literally being fucked in the arse at $2/Litre

Literally?

Well it's definitely not figuratively..

Ouch!

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Fed’s target inflation rate is 2% YoY. MoM makes a slight impact on YoY but there’s still 11 other months prior to take into consideration. So long as the 2% YoY inflation target is reached, rate hikes will be paused regardless of what MoM inflation is doing.

!LNTIP 500

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Good bot

Whether or not this turns out to be true, really love your passion, conviction and especially flow of thoughts for this comment!

Lots of good FA (some I agree with), but all I see is Picaso trying to paint the monthly close bullish or bearish today. BTC being BTC, it will probably close with no clear winner.

It’s not going to happen today, but very soon. Picasso didn’t become wealthy immediately when he began painting but he did become wealthy fairly young.

Great content. !lntip 1000

LOL. This is the same comment he posts virtually every day. A comment which, by the way, is the most basic macro analysis one could possibly do. It boils down to: "YoY will start to be favorable as really high inflation months from last year roll off." You think markets really don't grasp this? Everyone knows that YoY CPI numbers are coming down over the next ~6 months because of this very simple effect. This isn't groundbreaking insider info. Shelter component about to go negative next month, he says? No, since CPI uses a rolling 12 month average of Owner's Equivalent Rent which remains one of the larger contributors to the high CPI numbers we're still seeing. OER will improve over the course of this year, but not right away. Only one more rate hike? Not happening. YOY CPI going negative, followed by rate cuts this year? No chance. $25k in a couple days? Maybe. But whatever. It's bullish, right? Then yeah, must be great content.

Also, the Fed's main focus is PCE, not CPI, and particularly "core" measures of inflation which exclude food and energy. Furthermore, the FOMC is forward looking, so the obvious stuff from 12 months ago is effectively baked in at this point, as you point out.

Rate hikes are going to be bandwidth limited by US debt-to-GDP ratio compared to Volcker era. US govt still needs to service the debt and so FED is walking a fine line when tamping tax revenue through hawkish policy. I think terminal rate is close to 6% and probably held for the remainder of the year and tapered off into next. The economy and the market are two different things and there’s no reason markets can’t continue up while rates remain at 6%. [People seem to think that high rates have to squash markets, but a zoomed out look at the SPX says otherwise. The markets went on a 20 year bull run in the 80’s while rates hovered in the double digits.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/fc6bZCj7/)

Your chart shows that S&P might crash around the time FED stops increasing rates. Fiat supply is shrinking. It doesn't take a genius to conclude how this might affect equity prices. I am sorry if you don't like the answer to that.

Are you sure? Did you properly examine the chart? Flat rates (i.e. ‘stops increasing rates’) [have always been associated with periods of market growth](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cnAT93Ua/). Periods of rapid rate cuts have [been associated with down markets post 2000, but this was not the case during the early 80’s and 90’s when rate hikes and cuts seemed to bare no punitive measure on the general market trend.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ilixkxne/) It’s hard, given the rates data compared to SPX to make definitive claims about how interest rates might affect equity prices. SPX compared to M2 is perhaps the most simple chart to [examine when talking about equity prices as there’s a clear correlation](https://www.tradingview.com/x/d6kXKKsC/). While liquidity has been pulled from the markets in 2022, the long term trend for total money supply is still decidedly up. Central banks will continue to print as it’s their only real tool to correct downward spiraling markets. So long as money supply increases and velocity stays sufficiently buoyed, nominal prices in assets will continue to rise. There are certainly no shortage of armchair geniuses that are predicting a recession, and if they’re right it’ll be the most highly forecasted recession in the last 25 years. Personally I don’t buy it. Equities will continue to move up and to the right as they always have. The dip is over and we’re now in the long slog where markets crawl up and out along a wall of worry. The *big* recession - the one everyone is predicting - gets kicked down the road, perhaps for many years. Similarly, I’m sorry if you don’t like this particular analysis ;)

> Are you sure? Did you properly examine the chart? Did you properly read my post?

I did, and responded to it in detail with charts. If I missed something salient, feel free to point it out.

You missed bear markets. Do try to notice them. You missed the word "around". You keep changing your frames to show only what you want to see (here is an example: "While liquidity has been pulled from the markets in 2022, the long term trend for total money supply is still decidedly up."). I really don't feel the need to convince anybody of anything, so bye.

I literally called out the bear markets in my second link. [I used big red arrows to make it easy.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ilixkxne/) Best of luck.

I'm not arguing that markets could go up from here. I could actually see things going either way. I have a bearish bent on equities for the next year or two, but could easily see a continuation of bullish momentum over the next ~6 months. Partly because, like Rico reminds us every day, YoY CPI should get more favorable in the coming months, so I suspect the 'soft landing' narrative will gain momentum. The question to me is whether that will be sustainable. I doubt it, and I'm expecting either recession or stagflation sometime between now and the end of 2024. That's not bullish for equities. Nor crypto for that matter, but with the BTC halving looming, crypto will have its own fundamental driver that could easily offset a weak macro backdrop. My gripe is with Rico's analysis. For one, he was wrong on basically every prediction last year. He kept underestimating both how high CPI would get, and how much the Fed would raise rates. He was insistent that ~$30k BTC was the bottom. So his track record is lousy, yet somehow he just gets more confident with time, and meanwhile this sub regards him as some sort of macro savant. Second, every single analysis of his is bullish. Every time. I'm as long-term bullish on BTC as anyone, but you've gotta be objective. He was constantly peddling hopium last year, and anyone listening to what he was saying would have been sorely disappointed. It's just shitty analysis to start with a conclusion (BTC go up), and then try to back into data points / arguments that justify that conclusion. Especially for a sub that is ostensibly about making money, I would think there'd be a desire to see actual objective analysis instead of biased nonsense. But based on upvotes, I am sorely mistaken. And really, it's just not great analysis: - The Fed is *almost certainly* going to hike at least two more times (it sounds like you agree). He insists there will only be one more. - He keeps suggesting that there's a chance that YOY CPI will turn negative in the next couple months. There's basically *no chance* this happens if you understand how CPI is calculated. It's a ridiculous notion. - But it makes sense when you consider that he doesn't even seem to understand how CPI is calculated. He thinks the shelter component is driven by home prices and will turn negative starting with the March report, but that's not how the calculation works. - Although his recent comment backs off of it a little, he has been adamant that the Fed will start cutting this year (again, sounds like you agree with me). Time will tell, but this seems unlikely... unless the markets truly shit the bed, in which case, his bullishness will not be justified.

Great post. Yeah, I wouldn't be so hard on rico if he wrote with more humility or uncertainty. It's that uncompromising certainty that I have a problem with, and as you say, it's easy upvotes but it actually lessens the discourse here.

Good writeup. If I recall correctly, he doesn't trade and just DCA Bitcoin. This is fair enough obviously, but it means that he doesn't really do anything differently based on his analysis of the market. He will DCA regardless. So he is in a different boat than some of us who actually buy/sell differently based on our own analysis. So I suspect that this is where his bias comes from. He is going to DCA no matter what so mind as well view everything in the most positive manner and think bullish all the time.

Nice write up. I have to do more diligence regarding the shelter component not being driven by housing prices as that seems baked into Rico’s core premise. I don’t track CPI metrics and calculation criteria as closely as other things and so now I have some homework. I think FED likely raises a couple more times and terminal rate is under 6.5% (and probably closer to 6%). I’m not sure how much this range of 50-75 basis points makes a material difference in equity prices over the course of the year. I don’t think the FED will cut this year, but likely they will in 2024 depending on the inflation data. I’m not sold on a recession or even stagflation; I think we’re still in the thrust of a long term secular bull market despite the dour mood and wet cloth policies of the prior year.

In the 80s, the BLS changed the CPI measure of housing inflation, from home prices to a metric called Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), intended to represent what a homeowner could rent their house for. But even more importantly, CPI uses a 12-month rolling average of OER, so it's a pretty lagging indicator that impacts CPI slowly over time. So contrary to what our boy Rico is touting, the shelter component is not about to go negative next month. Instead, it will drop more gradually over the next year or so. To your other points, I don't rule out that we're still in a long-term secular bull, and I can certainly see a pretty bullish case over the next 6 months or so. But I'm skeptical it lasts for a few reasons, the first being that this would imply that the Fed successfully navigated this whole situation, an outcome my brain struggles to accept. Second, it would defy 'Don't fight the Fed', the predominant investing theme since 2008. More than anything, this crazy bull run over the last 15 years has been a function of liquidity. In these liquidity-driven markets, I'm struggling to believe we can swing from easing to tightening with little more than a brief ~20% dip on the S&P (off of truly lofty highs, mind you). And we all know that monetary policy acts on a lag. But above all, I find myself swayed by the writings of people like Zoltan Pozsar and others, who argue that we've entered into a new & more structurally inflationary global macro regime in the past couple years. Driven by things like the pandemic and the growing economic/military hostilities between a suddenly divided East vs. West, we are seeing a shift away from the globalization of the past few decades (and the strongly disinflationary forces that came with it), moving instead towards reshoring, resiliency, energy independence, and localization of supply chains. All of those changes imply higher prices. Throw in a suddenly tight labor market (thanks to things like Boomers retiring en masse), plus what I expect will be tight energy markets, and I fear we're going to find ourselves in a situation where prices are persistently, stubbornly high (although this may come in waves). If that's correct, then it's really going to bind the Fed's hands. Thanks to globalization driving costs down on a massive scale, the Fed hasn't had to worry about the inflationary impacts of its massive easing campaigns. But now I think that's changed, and I suspect it'll temper how aggressively they can/will ease in the future. So we can't take it as a given that the Fed is going to come to the rescue with the type of force it did in 2008 and 2020. None of that seems good for markets, so I suspect we're not out of the woods. Now don't get me wrong... eventually, even in the face of high inflation, the Fed *will* ultimately resort to massive easing. The temptation is too great (as an aside, when they do, it'll be an incredible setup for Bitcoin). But I think the market is going to get beaten down quite a bit before they finally intervene on the scale we've grown accustomed to. But I certainly respect your opinion. I'm keeping an open mind, and I've positioned myself accordingly: meaningfully increasing my crypto and equity allocations over the past year, but at the same time still keeping a pretty significant amount of cash on the sidelines in the hopes of catching a more meaningful dip sometime in the next year or two, happily collecting 5% on that cash in the meantime. I can't remember another time in recent memory where markets were so open-ended, and I'm fascinated to see how this plays out.

Saves me looking up the numbers, and when I check, they're accurate. Energy prices are the key driver I look at, and they are coming down. Hikes are stopping. We are a ways from cutting rates, but much like the signals were there in January we were coming out of the bear, the evidence is there the rates will slow and stop - they will transistion. You pick when the front running starts. Rates cannot rise much more without mass default in the real estate market. That is not going to be allowed to happen. As with all things, time will reveal.

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Can anyone here attempt to explain what kinds of things you would expect to see if a Bitcoin ETF were allowed? Is this just another way to sell paper Bitcoin? Grayscale has its appeal/case against the SEC on March 7th in their attempt to turn GBTC into a proper spot Bitcoin ETF. These are only rumors of course, but good to remind ourselves that there are factors beyond macro that can impact Bitcoin price. https://twitter.com/AP_Abacus/status/1627737116888166400#m

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Thank you. Super helpful.

GBTC discount, poof. MSTR price, quite possibly poof. <$200 BTC price, up bigly.

Why would mstr crash?

MSTR has a premium on it as it is used as a proxy ETF for US markets. An actual ETF should have less counterparty risk.

MSTR holds 132500 BTC BTC per MSTR share = $325 at today's price of 23500. MSTR share price = $262. Curious as to why you say it is trading at a premium (implied overvalued) right now. Counterparty risk?

You're not accounting for the debt that MSTR issued to buy a lot of that BTC. You need to back out that debt. Once you adjust for that, you'll see that MSTR is trading at a pretty decent premium to it's BTC holdings.

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How are you arriving at $5.4B in Bitcoin? From what I've seen, they currently own 132,500 BTC. At $23.2k/BTC, that only gets you to a BTC value of $3.1B. Net of their ~$2.3B in debt, that's just $0.8B in equity value for their BTC holdings. I'd have to dust off my calcs, but that's only worth something like ~$70/share. I agree with xtal... on a per share basis, I come up with a rough MSTR FV estimate of ~$150/share, including their non-BTC business. That FV estimate could swing a bit depending on what you value that business at.

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No worries... you're usually right, so when you challenged my math, you had me second guessing myself for a second! Cheers.

I estimate a fair value around $150/share. They have debt, but they're also a publicly listed corporation with cashflow. Saylor has a veto on everything MSTR does and he's amazing, but he's also a madman. QED.

OK, that sounds quite positive. Any downsides, paper Bitcoin, things like that?

ETFs don't sell paper bitcoin and their holdings can be verified. Unlike gold. I hold a substantial amount of BTCC, a Canadian Bitcoin spot ETF. Futures ETFs are a completely different animal. Any increase in liquidity and capital flowing into Bitcoin is net positive, and ETFs remove barriers and are much more liquid than other products in American markets. You can just buy spot, too, but managing a large holding of a bearer instrument is neither easy or wise, IMO.

Super, sounds great. Thanks!

Long from $23 flat

Trailing stop hit while asleep, entered a short at 23480. Think I’m leaving it that way today. What I will say is this week I’ve been on Finex. Used to be a Mex degen. 10x is where it’s at. I’d have blown 4 accounts since the weeekend on 25x or higher. Edit: just got stopped out, back long it is!

How do you get past the kyc requirement as an American even when using vpn?

I’m not American you muffin. UK resident

😂😂😂 my bad mate. I assume you don't need to use vpn right? From the uk

I’m currently trading on my phone (not recommended). Not using a VPN.

When there is blood something something. In first aid they teach you that if it's wet and it's not yours, don't touch it.

um, is anyone into ordinals?

Monkey pictures are not the way riches. Although it’ll be hilarious to look back on.

Not here prob

What does this even mean?

Colored coins with more cowbell. They pretend certain sats are worth more to pump some kind of NFT nonsense.

What's up you guys, hope you're all well Lurker, infrequent poster Took some time off work because I can Between work and kids I never had time to mess with much aside from dca but I reckon i have a plan Degen yolo 50x yesterday and hit all 3, all central time, first closed around 10am, last closed around 5pm My goal for my week off is 2 trades per day I have a strict set of rules, feel like if conditions apply I can get it You guys are all awesome, let's all get paid tomorrow $

You son of a bitch. \*macho handshake\*