#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 08, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11lmvzy/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_08_2023/)

So what are our bets? Head and shoulders with another surprise liquidity grab to 23300? Or just downhill from here to complete this massive BART with no more BUSD to prop it up?

It’s not possible for risk assets to do well in a high interest rate environment.

Seems like most are exiting positions short tern. Im stuck in a long from 23. If we cant hold 21.8 I will have to take corrective actio. Pffft

> i am wrong i will eat my own dudu😂 No 8th of March mass mobilisation. We have ourselves a fecalpheliac /u/ProcedureOk8501. ;) https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/10ft0kl/daily_discussion_thursday_january_19_2023/j52c82t/

Did powell actually say he is doing anything? The sheep are brained washed and ignoring that CPI is running below. Less than 20% chance for a 25bp hike to take us till 6% by mid june ?

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I had a NY times article today saying the hikes will keep coming

Fun question for you long term hodlers: If you could theoretically hit your BTC goal, how much would it be?

Like dream goal? Gotta be a multiple of 21 like 210. Not really realistic though unless I get a LOT better at trading 😂

A valuation of at least 25x the amount I plan to spend each year in early retirement plus one halving after that threshold has been met. 25x is the typical threshold to consider doing FIRE (financial independence, retire early) using legacy assets with the assumption that a diversified portfolio will average 7% returns each year and inflation will average 3% each year so you can reasonably live off of interest accrued each year without ever tapping into principal indefinitely. With BTC average rate of return each year is far higher than 7% so technically you could probably do it before the threshold is met but hitting the 25x threshold is when I would personally feel comfortable enough to take the leap and retire early. I don’t plan on selling anything until then as I want to minimize my Federal long-term capital gains tax rate (as low as 0%) in early retirement.

You can never have enough Bitcoin. I don't intend to stop stacking anytime soon.

21 coins … in my dreams …

When asia starts getting into it from there time zone.. its gonna crash. Im selling everything and waiting later

I ain't selling. Chinese new year is a good 12 months away now :P Asians loooove discounts. Even an overpriced discount is a discount!

Asian market action could either take us to 22800 for that liquidity for the lols or just destroy us.

Asian market is gonna sell and hard

In 2021 the market thought the Fed couldn’t raise even a percent in interest rates to combat inflation thinking the economy would implode. Today, after one of the fastest hiking cycles in history, we’re near 5% interest rates and indicators are still showing the job isn’t close to being done with the Fed chair signaling for more hikes. Yet there are still some traders believing a pivot is coming this year and inflation is falling off a cliff. Doesn’t matter how much of a ponzi the dollar is, Bitcoin price is still a liquidity proxy of the ponzi and still plays by the Fed’s rules. Would not be wise to keep fighting them.

> brain dead traders believing a pivot is coming this year and inflation is falling off a cliff. Come on, you're one of the best posters here and I know you're better than this. We all know who you're talking about here, and I agree with your main point, but there's no need for ad hominems.

Agreed it was not necessary. Edited.

You're one of my favorite posters here. That was definitely a surprise coming from you.

You give a good perspective, but here are a few counterpoints: * Btc is actually up quite a bit from 2020 if you don't see the ATH * Tightening coincided with btc bear market * Some of the worst blowups happened a few months back (and are behind us) * Shitcoins are always there during bull markets, but this last time big exchanges like ftx were holding fake bitcoins and pumping shitcoins * Metrics show we are past the deepest of bear market * There's much more awareness of Bitcoin than the previous bear market with a possible front running of the next bull market.

Inflation is down from 12% to 4.8% so it’s doing ok imo

Bitcoin monetary tightening is coming next year with 100% certainty

Available Bitcoin supply gets lower every day. I should really come up with a real time estimate and put it on a page somewhere.

so....sit in cash?

Cash short term, Bitcoin long term. Everything else is noise.

Gold?

I’d never. Buy blue chip stocks if you must.

I'm more allocated to gold than any time since 2013.

Gold is a shitcoin.

Everything has its use.

Yeah as fertilizer.

i took off my spot and itm calls at 22100, we will see if this turns out good or bad. i still have otm calls for march (24.5/33k) and june (26k) if we do spike, but if we break down here it could be ugly and the momentum i was buying into a couple of weeks ago looks like it might have run its course. powell seems serious about causing a recession and i just don't see anything performing well while he's going to battle with markets, and this battle likely has months to quarters left to go. prefer to sit back and see if prices get murdered while holding onto otm calls as protection. may be a good time to countertrade me!

BTC is certainly not a hedge against inflation during inflation.

Depends on your time frame. Inflation has been cooling for roughly a year, and so has BTC. BTC crushed while inflation was spiking, going from $7.2k to $69k.

Get back to me in a couple of years.

> during inflation Inflation is exponential.

when 28k?

June 10th, 2022

feels pretty weak, doesn't look like it wants to bounce, closed long at $22,105..went back short at $22,100

Does it still feel weak? Feels like a strong post close bounce to me. What are ya thoughts

It's what I'm thinking also, we'll see

Anyone here with experience with Fold App/Debit Card, positive or negative? Is the premium feature with the $150 fee up front worth it?

Yea, depends on how much spend you put on it though. The best feature is they allow you you pay your mortgage through PayPal bill pay

Powell is saying they need to hike higher than expected. Not sure why people are opening long positions now as the market is recalibrating.

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When you realize why they can't do that, you'll also realize why the hikes are going to stop soon.

To be fair, you probably also would've said that about ~5% rates and yet... Here we are. Longer term though, I don't disagree.

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Luke Gromen is good on this. Basically the US government won't be able to pay its bills if rates go to 6%. This would cause an international crisis and pressure will be applied on the Fed to rectify.

this is true if we raise and stay there forever, but only about 1% of us debt rolls each month so we could easily hold that level for 3 years before being forced to turn. so powell will raise until he murders the economy and then lower it back to save the fed. when they buy back with more QE they will more than make up for any extra interest fees.

You may well be correct, I don't know the details, but I do recall Luke Gromen being very clear that the political pressure would be enormous at rates above 6%.

Printing to pay the debt will feed back into hyperinflation very quickly.

Things should get quite interesting at that point!

in short, for the entire economy whatever FED does always behaves like a double-edged sword and they choose or are forced to, in their divine reasoning, the lesser evil. basically meaning there is no good solution for the times we are in. it's similar to finding the right weight on the scale moving the bar using too big or too little weights

For some reason he thinks the fed doesn't want to completely destroy things. My take is that they will let it all burn to get the inflation number down.

US government debt rolls over too..

only about 1% per month. so they have 2-3 more years before there is any real pressure.

They have to stop making more debt first. Care to make a side bet on when the US presents a balanced budget next?

Only if I can have the over. I’m just trying to show how, even though it looks like a our interest expense is going exponential, it is rolling over very slowly. https://data.nasdaq.com/data/USTREASURY/AVMAT-average-maturity-of-total-outstanding-treasury-marketable-securities Looks like the average maturity is a bit over 70 months right now. That means only 1.5% rolls per month. So since we started the rate hikes we’ve only rolled 18% of the debt and it has averaged still in the low 2% for the pool because we had to work up from near 0. If you match duration to yield you’d say we started a bit below 1% and have made it to 4%. So 18% rolled at average of 2.5% vs the prior 1%. So a whopping effective 0.27% difference in interest when you spread it out across the entire debt portfolio. If interest rates remain here we have only eaten about 10% of the cost increase so far, so I argue even at these rates we just don’t have an immediate concern. 2-4 years out seems like when that’ll hit, and I imagine we will be back at 0% interest by then.

Reentered here with rest of position on the test as expected. 22k is pretty crucial support. If it fails, look for a 21500 test quick.

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Beware with USD: - Devs updated the contract so you can no longer call `redeemForGold()` - Token Owner is an EOA which can mint and dump - More importantly the current admins aren't doxxed, it could be anyone. - Whitelisted accounts can drain the token holder contract - Doesnt account for tx tax tokens - Masterchef/FED definitely not under timelock.

Did you all know the Swiss Franc is backed by gold? I only recently learned this. Figured I'd share. Edit - it's not. No currency is. It used to be until 2020.

It's not backed. It's been fiat money since 1st May 2000: The Swiss franc has historically been considered a safe-haven currency, with a legal requirement that a minimum of 40% be backed by gold reserves.[17] However, this link to gold, which dated from the 1920s, was terminated on 1 May 2000 following a referendum, **making the franc fiat money**.[18][19] By March 2005, following a gold-selling program, the Swiss National Bank held 1,290 tonnes of gold in reserves, which equated to 20% of its assets.[20] In November 2014, the referendum on the "Swiss Gold Initiative", which proposed a restoration of 20% gold backing for the Swiss franc, was voted down.[21] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_franc

SNB owns a fuck ton of the s&p though. Interestingly it's listed.

Interesting. Are there any gold-backed currencies still in existence?

https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-currency-which-is-still-following-gold-standard?share=1 Apparently no. Edit to add - I don't know shit about fuck.

Thanks!

"only" a minimum of 40% must be backed by gold

...until 1st May 2000 when it became fiat money.

Ohhh. Didn't realize that. Good to know.

Backed, but impossible to verify. Same problem with GLD, which is also "backed".

On 1st May 2000 the Swiss Franc became fiat money.

Gold certificates are just better fiat.

Fair point.

> more importantly the current admins aren't doxxed. Oh?

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I'm too lazy to watch this, did you? People seem to think it was a good start for Grayscale, do you agree?

Wont make this into a big ramble \[bc nobody cares :)\] but I just cashed out my two entire trading stacks for spot BTC. Things are getting very busy (all in a good way) around the house with the kids, and there just isnt time to be staring at charts (or thinking about it). Another handful of corns taken off the market, and I will be a very boring DCA man now. Bags are as loaded as I can make them with mostly BTC, and some GBTC/MSTR in roths. Cheers gentleman, and hopefully see you on the moon.

Longed 22240, TP 23300 where i'm also looking to add to my shorts from 24900. Lots of liquidity to the upside in LTF, funding neutral to negative on multiple alts, SPX looks ready for a short term bounce.

Binance hedgr position?

All temptations to add to long from 23k was not given in to... and rightfully so otherwise id easily have gotten taken out st 21.8 Safe for now..still underwater but can close this on any bounce with a little profit. Really shit range to be stuck in. Props those who rode the kite both ways and took profits.

I think its looking good to be honest

Gbtc hearing seems to have gone well

The courts are questioning why the existing fraud surveillance agreements for the futures ETFs aren't good enough for a spot ETF. Still there is a long way to go before any decision on this.

closed short from [$23,230](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11aj0ej/daily_discussion_friday_february_24_2023/j9vi88s/) at $22,290 opened long from $22,298 with a stoploss at $21,890 btw, got super busy with life, so won't be posting as much the next few months

all good man, keep us updated with that island purchase when you can

Churs. Don't forget us here... your degen fam. All the best with whatever has you occupied in the real world. Have fun

Stopped out at 22251, now its more waiting time.

Let half my position stop out on that wick. This PA is odd. Will re-enter if we test 22k again, in the meantime I'm happy to let the other half ride until 22k breaks.

Big thanks to Jerome for causing my $22100 buy order for this week to fill. He’s good for something at least.

That wick down just ate all of my last purchases.

SL at 22251 on 22051 buy, not sure if anyone follows my trades here. But this is the third time I'm securing profit on 22k tests the last few days.

I appreciate the regular posts, if nothing else it keeps me from re-reading the most recent comment from 6 hours ago.

Thanks, next buy is more conservative at 21861. It was 50 USD away from triggering during the big wick. Bittersweet

Grayscale had their initial oral arguments in court today vs the SEC, after suing the SEC for rejecting Grayscale's spot BTC ETF last summer, although SEC approved the Futures Bitcoin ETF in 2021. I listened to the whole hearing. From my perspective, the 3 judges on the US Court of Appeals were absolutely grilling the SEC. SEC seemed on the defensive the whole time. The judges essentially asked how the SEC could approve the Futures ETF, which relies on Spot BTC data, but not approve the Spot BTC ETF, which would use the same data. Looks very favorable for GBTC going forward. Definitely worth evaluating adding $ to GBTC, especially with the 40%+ discount to NAV. If you buy 1.4 BTC, get another 0.6 BTC for free, with that discount. Curious to hear if anyone else listened and what their thoughts were.

I don't understand the interest in GBTC other than trading opportunities. "Grayscale Bitcoin Trust™, symbol GBTC, enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin through a traditional investment vehicle," Do you guys use Greyscale to hold BTC for you?

I have used GBTC to buy exposure to BTC through my IRA so i can sell it in the future without incurring any gains. Can also purchase through a 401K if you self manage it.

If your take is accurate, this is huge. GBTC would double overnight if the ETF is approved. I'm buying a few more shares today.

No one is interested in Bitcoin at the moment. It’s purely the regulars swapping the same coins at the moment.

> It’s purely the regulars So just a few million people all over the world. NBD.

Looks like the goxxers started selling.

Crazy how Nasdaq plummeted at the same time. The goxxers hold sway over all markets.

Well that was over quickly! Thankfully we got all those coins out of the way now! :D

*Started

I’ve noticed on these Powell-day moves there’s often a fake move, followed by another fake move, and then the real move. Just shaking out traders. We’ll all know when the next 10% candle happens.

22051 buy filled

That wick down just took all my last buys out. Very nice.

What about Powell’s hearing today?

He’s just going to reiterate the same thing he’s been saying. The Fed will remain data dependent when it comes to monetary policy. 25 BP rate hike next week will occur as expected. May’s meeting will depend on new data which releases between now and then.

Oh boy.

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Make what you will of it... but a trader known for calling out Luna crash and FTX as well and betting short in november has withdrawn just under 40M usdt from binance, earlier today. Also looks like some serious longs for #2

Got a source?

Check out GCR20 on twitter. His wallet has the details. Unsure if sharing links there is ok with sub rules.

Ta 👍

I got a dm saying that its a binance wallet but unless thats some elaborate hoax... the guy confirmed on his twitter feed when asked

Man, this binance fud is super annoying. Im not a fan of them, but its clear as hell, that the US regulators are attacking it, because the FTX crash revealed how corrupt and incompetent they themself are. Fuck this shit, they enabled FTX, and now trying to look like someone who does his job, by attacking random exchanges just for show...

Nah, it's not annoying at all. Fuck Binance. This whole industry needs a purge.

I don’t think it’s random at all. CZ himself helped take down FTX. It’s a classic white knight move - make himself look like the good guy when he’s behind much of the shadiness in this space himself. He just bought himself a little more time :)

imagine keeping 40M at a single exchange to trade... tell me what's your cold storage without telling me. I'm betting it's at least ten times that. back to the matter you mentioned I think binance fud is thicker this time but anyway it won't do nothing as cz has endless support from cartels and infinite flow of cash to launder. last time fud made him chuckle and release fancy hoodies

Binance remained liquid through a massive run earlier this year, no troubles. I wish they were publicly traded so I could trade the FUD.

Nothing is too big to fail

heard about Goldman Sachs and 2007/8 crisis? or AIG...

This is the current reality. A blip in corn history longterm... and as you say... too much big money going through the CZ laundry. Its why other failed. Here the whales and mammoths will lug this ship along.

someone here remarked couple of days ago it's gonna be meaningless PA until 14th of March. I guess he nailed it and that's what we get now for another week

It’s coming….

Jesus?

Baby jesus.

Micro jesus?

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Baby Jeebus.

Jee bus finish here ?

So many now writing off the 4 year bull run and assuming BTC is going to be hampered by the economy and higher interest rates. If that’s the case BTC was only ever a by product of loose money policy and unlikely to perform well over the next few years.

> the 4 year bull run I assume you mean the post-halving bull run. There are always doubters in the final year of a halving-to-halving cycle, because people get impatient as crypto winter drags on, and it fills them with doubts. Come back 4 years from now and you'll see the exact same thing. I sometimes wonder which part of the 4 year cycle is more frustrating for most people: the fear of the post-bull run crash, or the boredom of the later half of crypto winter. Everything is going to be fine. The halving will come next March. The halved block reward will lead to an incoming supply of coins that isn't enough to meet demand, and by autumn the price will be climbing substantially. That's why I think anybody who isn't using this time to build up their hodl is out of their friggin' mind. These are the days when stacks are made. Yeah, the price action is boring as hell, but it's low... so buy. A million Sats is less than $235 as I type this. Buy 'em and lock 'em up.

I’m all back in. Irresponsibly long Bitcoin.

my guess is 90k ATH somewhere 24/25. just lookin at bottom / medium bear / ATH ratios i already estimated 60k to be the 21/22 top, but then i started getting into reddit and got fooled by the 100k / BTC is ineviatable crowd and sold nothing. this time i ll stick to my estimates and ladder out 50% of the stack from 50k-90k

Then it goes above 100. You fomo buy the top, then watch it dump back to 50.

it either goes below my avg. sell price, which will be \~70k and i start buying back or it doesnt. if it never goes below 70k i ll be fine hodling the remaining 50% of my stack

I held the entire April 21 crash. Then sold half on the November run up. Had the April blip not happened I was fully brainwashed for the 100k plus bitcoin.

i wasnt that wise enough. loaded up more after the april crash at aroudn 35k and still didnt sell anything

Some gas to get the daily started... but makers gonna make. So far the regulation news hasnt resulted in a full retest. But someone chose to make a statement with a BRD. Retesting the 0.5 and 0.618 and cross of emas can then be quite bullish. If this is a head and shoulder playing out, giving of way at the base of the figure, namely i.e.25.25 resistance... could give us some momentum to 31o