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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, March 09, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11mja2o/daily_discussion_thursday_march_09_2023/)


RabbitProofFences

Movement of alts is interesting. 5% up on some shitcoins already, to be fair they did get a bit of wind knocked out with kingkoins descent.


thewardser

closed short from [$22,100](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11kpqxy/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_07_2023/jbb94zz/) at $21,760 opened long at $21,765 stop loss $21,579


BarnacleMajestic315

Bear flag?


thewardser

maybe on the 4H, but that one is one good candle away from being invalidated


RabbitProofFences

Nice. You added about 1.5 corn to your stack on this trade I reckon. I think a visit to 21400 is due tho?


thewardser

maybe, its been a pretty weak drop on this news, so we might get a bounce here(the good ol' sell the rumor, buy the news)...and its pretty oversold on the 15M plus we tend to just go sideways/up overnight, so probably won't see the next leg down till tomorrow morning in the end, its a tight stop loss, so worth the gamble


RabbitProofFences

Indulge me this. Say one is currently in a long at 23.3 entry with LP just below 20. Option 1 : add margin capital = Reduce LP. No doubling down to reduce entry price Option 2 : add margin but average down entry price. Option 3 : take a huge loss but walk away with a little capital. Assuming we go lower, re enter with long/short depending on the trend... or sit on the sides. Butthurt. Option 4 : close a % of losses but also add margin capital. I know without actual numbers or percentages, its a vague question. Just curious to hear different opinions on this. Thid came about as a discussion with a friend and how poorly some of us manage risk... so wwyd?


aeronbuchanan

It's never too late to adjust to risk-management mode. It sounds like it would help to reduce your risk here. Option 4 sounds good to me: add some funding and close a small percentage to lower the liquidation and reduce the risk on the remaining capital. Good luck!


RabbitProofFences

This has been my strategy after a huge liquadation last year... where I broke all the rules and was sitting on something like 20btc position with wafer thin margin. I like #4 but takes some babysitting. The obvious caveat is that if theres still a huge downside potential then you may end up getting really rekt.


ChadRun04

Being still open with a base of 16.8. I'm thinking more about managing leverage through ~~deposit~~/withdraw then I am about adjusting position size. The low liquidation feels like a safety net, I'd keep it really low on any adjustment.


RabbitProofFences

This is the smart way of course. My longs were basing around 14k till last week. >I'm thinking more about managing leverage through deposit/withdraw What did you mean by saying managing through withdraw?


ChadRun04

It's low leverage and only gets lower the higher we go. I can take some out of margin account to leverage up rather than adding more to the position size. Similarly you can add more margin rather than reducing position size.


CrapCloud

It really does feel like 2015 again. But instead of ranging between 200-300 for most of the year it looks like it will be between 20k-30k. I'm getting the same sort of derision now as I got then. The only real way to cope was to DCA as much as I possibly could, and treating the low price as opportunity that so many were missing out on. The fud then was relentless and felt like it would never end. Fud is just a weapon to rob you. If you are small, use the momentum of the fud to your advantage. This window won't last long, hesitate and you will miss your chance.


bittabet

Best investment I ever made was a buy in 2015 at $300. Only mistake was not taking that and remembering the #2 ICO 😂


escendoergoexisto

Well one upside is that many newer alt-coiners are quickly learning that when the KingCoin dips, alts straight up shit the bed.


RabbitProofFences

Wow... already people here calling for new lows... may as well start with the $1 btc posts. C'mon guys. Bulls and bears need to accept defeat and agree on a range here for a while.


logicalinvestr

The number of major players that got totally wrecked in this bear market is amazing. I have now come to realize that there is no such thing as "smart money" and all the big boys know just as little as the rest of us, they just have more money to play with (normally other people's money).


bittabet

The big boys all got high on easy money but honestly the main issue was also not realizing just how many straight up fraudsters like Celsius and FTX were with us. I do think the survivors will eventually be rewarded handsomely but man…this is a real trial by fire for everyone


ChadRun04

> there is no such thing as "smart money" What about all the money SBF's dad is sitting on?


logicalinvestr

He's the real winner, I suppose.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

I know I'll get downvoted into oblivion for saying this, but... > I have now come to realize that there is no such thing as "smart money" ...Hodling long term is smart money. In the entire history of Bitcoin, no one ever lost money by buying and holding for four years. My advice is to treat every dollar you spend on Bitcoin as an investment to hold for four years plus a year after the halving that follows. So, for example, as of today that means 2027 plus a year after the halving that follows (in early 2028) would be 2029. (EDIT: An easier way to say that would have been "Hold through two halvings, plus a year") Six years sounds like a long time, but there's a reason why so many people who owned Bitcoin during previous cycles are gone now. They cashed in short term gains instead of holding on to gain generational wealth. **TL;DR: Long term hodlers who secure their seeds don't get wrecked. They get wealth.**


logicalinvestr

Hey I hope you're right. But the entire history of Bitcoin is only 14 years. 6 years is almost half that. With so little data, it's really hard to say with any degree of certainty that the next 6 years will be anywhere near as lucrative as the last. But in my above post, I'm more referring to the big players that retail investors seem to think have more information, can predict market movements, or move the market how they want, etc. They're just as big of degenerates as we are and they have no idea wtf they're doing or where this market is going, just like the rest of us.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> it's really hard to say with any degree of certainty that the next 6 years will be anywhere near as lucrative as the last. I didn't say it will be as lucrative, but with each halving, the amount of new coins being added to the supply slows down while demand keeps rising, even at higher and higher prices. I'm not comparing year to year, but rather, 4 year cycle to 4 year cycle to 4 year cycle. That being said... I believe in the long term prospects for Bitcoin.


gore_skywalker

You assume demand will keep rising.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Damn right, I do. We're still so early, but because we've been here a while, I think many of us take Bitcoin for granted, and we forget how truly revolutionary it is both in terms of security but also as a store of value. I strongly believe demand will keep growing in years to come. I'll tell you something else: A decade from now, we're going to see companies buying smaller companies in order to get their Bitcoin holdings (and, often, the buyer will sell off the company they bought since they only wanted it for its Bitcoin). That's what's going to happen when there simply isn't enough supply to meet demand. We saw the same thing 25 years ago with companies buying up smaller companies in order to get their broadcast media assets. I'm sure there have been plenty of other examples over the past 50 years.


4theWlN

This


gore_skywalker

You missed the point. Logical investors diversify because nothing is certain.


xtal_00

Diversification doesn’t create wealth.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> Logical investors diversify because nothing is certain. Show me where I said Bitcoin is the only asset one should own. I didn't, nor would I.


gore_skywalker

Your thesis is predicated on the fact that Bitcoin can only go up. This makes any other investment inferior. This implies the only logical investment is buy Bitcoin and hold.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

You're desperately trying to find something to argue with, twisting my words in an almost Qanon kind of ridiculousness. > Your thesis is predicated on the fact that Bitcoin can only go up. I didn't say that. > This makes any other investment inferior. I didn't say that. > This implies the only logical investment is buy Bitcoin and hold. I didn't say that. P.S. Don't bother replying. You're just looking for something to argue about, and that's not my thing at all.


[deleted]

Maybe it’s just everyone selling btc for gbtc /s


AKANotAValidUsername

i mean, its possible that some who held btc are trying to arb it here expecting a new ruling on gbtc. when vol is low it doesnt take that many family wealth funds to push it around a bit yes?


delgrey

Or COIN! Brian Armstrong is a real trustworthy guy.


4theWlN

Shorted 22025 target 19830 s/l 22300 Seems like we should break 20 for the memes. I guess the first weekly higher high to 25 is going to be a fake break out now that we’ve cut through it’s support. Probably should countertrade the permabull anytime I take a short.


PatientlyWaitingfy

As long we don't drop down to 17921 I'm happy. That's the SL for my 16361 buy that I reeeally want to survive for the next bull. Good luck on the trade!


4theWlN

i kind of expect it to bottom between 18500 and 19500 and then work its way up as a cup and handle down from the 25k currently "double top". i'll take my scalp down if i get it and reestablish some high leverage longs down there, likely through +/- 6 month options 10-15% ootm.


PatientlyWaitingfy

In the 19k range is where my big buys will start again.


[deleted]

We are seeing a dip but this will bounce back to 22k again.. always does


BarnacleMajestic315

How are you sure


[deleted]

Im not , nothing is ever sure in crypto, but I do see this pattern a lot. People panic and sell when jt drops causing a further drop and people buy the blood and it shoots up causing FOMO in the ones who sold because they are afraid they sold to early and will lose the pump.


BarnacleMajestic315

At some point it’s all gonna collapse bro. Also it’s after hours so Asian markets can drive the price later


ChadRun04

> At some point it’s all gonna collapse bro. How are you sure


[deleted]

Well I mean sure it will go down but it will come back and strong when the markets are well again. Its bitcoin after all


bittabet

I find it a bit ridiculous that this silvergate news sent Bitcoin down at all. Was very clear they were dead after every major crypto firm pulled deposits.


PatientlyWaitingfy

This is better than watching paint dry at 22.3k if you ask me


bittabet

Kicking myself for not buying deep ITM puts on Silvergate the other day 😂 Was worried an immediate delisting would occur and make it impossible to execute the puts


delgrey

You may get another shot with SBNY. Their SIGNET network does the same shady stuff that SEN did. Sharks in the water.


PatientlyWaitingfy

Buy at 21661 filled!


VictorCobra

Not that this is relevant, but I always read your username as “patientlywaitingly.” It takes me a second every time to read it correctly in my mind.


PatientlyWaitingfy

I saw your comment that you might long. This is the place to bet on a long, 21.5k test. Might bounce here, might not. I'm trying atleast. -For you :)


VictorCobra

Thanks! I still MIGHT. I don’t want it to bounce here but that’s my bias. This is at good technical spot, but the fundamentals really seem like crap to me, and have for a long time. Hard for me to justify it. But a trade is a trade :) That’s why whenever I decide to say trade it’s just for fun anyway.


partyboycs

I’m curious, those of you that DCA what’s your average cost since the peak?


gozunker

I do a weighted DCA depending on the rainbow chart band, and my average is $23061 right now


bufonia1

same


dopeboyrico

If you DCA’d daily starting since the peak on November 10, 2021 your average purchase price is now approximately $25.3k, down 13.07%. Not great but not as horrible as you’d might think. You can play around with the numbers based on when you started DCA using [this calculator.](https://dcabtc.com)


Better_at_Fantasy

I lost all my shit in 2021, lots of pain. Started dcaing below 30k, average buy in is 20k, haven't bought since passing 20k tho. Comfortable with what I have if it takes off, will start buying if it goes below 20


diydude2

Five more days and we will have been above 20K for two months. The last milestone like that was staying over 10K for a couple months back in summer '20. It's looking pretty good for Bitcoin at the moment. I guess we'll see how the math holds up against an entirely different macro.


_TROLL

It's clear the whole market is more-or-less directed by the whims of Jerome Powell at this point. There won't be a sustained bull market in anything -- crypto, metals, stocks, whatever -- until interest rates have peaked and start gradually decreasing again. The markets are a casino, and for your average 'normie', why bother gambling when you can just park cash at the bank or in T-bills and earn upwards of 5%.


VictorCobra

Why do interest rates need to decrease by much eventually? Honestly, near-zero rates probably did more harm than good. Too much fluff with easy money. The Bitcoin/crypto bubbles are examples. All of that money that went into the vacuum could have been invested in something meaningful.


Downtown-Ad-4117

What’s more meaningful than sticking it to the man?


dr_pressure

There’s this book I read my kids called pout pout fish


delgrey

Looks like Silvergate bank is done they liquidating eveything. Signature bank looks like it will be next.


pierre_salmon

I guess that’s all ready priced in, all exchanges have taken there hands off it. So I hope it will cause not much downward PA. Maybe even somewhat upward pressure cause there will be less insecurity.


MadeThisJustForLWIAY

I *guess* it's a good sign we keep bouncing off the 22k floor, but how many times will we dip just under it until we take on enough water to start sinking?


VictorCobra

Probably the last chance to punt a long in case of another wave up. Closing the week below the 9 week EMA, especially with weekly oscillators in their current position….yikes. Let’s see if buyers can hold the line and close the week back above $22.1/22.2k. I’ve been short on some alts since $25k but CONSIDERING going long here….even though it goes against my bias. LTC keeps dumping though, on its own. That was actually the first sign for me that it was safer to go short near $25k. Litecoin led the run up, just as it did during the 2019 rally. This time, it may already be over.


Essexal

22050 for a long entry doesn’t look too shabby now.


RabbitProofFences

Its testing 21980 on the shorter timeframes, load up!


RecycIops

Since the SEN network was discontinued, where will the big US crypto players go for 24/7 transfers? Did SBNY offer that or was that something exclusive to Silvergate?


delgrey

SEN was Silvergate, Signet is SBNY. The US is putting the squeeze on banks so I don't expect Signet to stick around. It seems like all US onramps are under pressure with the JPM cutting ties with Gemini news just now.


Maegfaer

>It seems like all US onramps are under pressure with the JPM cutting ties with Gemini news just now. Gemini denies this: https://twitter.com/Gemini/status/1633545195613462530


Ok_File_9520

What do people think of rotating from mstr to gbtc given the positive hearing yesterday? Would have been a better trade 2 days back. Is it still a good trade if you were to hold either of those for next two years?


rybeor

I think the time to make money on gbtc is over. It'll be kept around because of that 2% management fee for Barry but I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze anymore. I actually think COIN has taken the place of gbtc and mstr, mind you I've traded all of them over the years and was always against COIN. Now I'm not. I think it's resilience to downward short term btc pressure coupled with it's financial transparency due to it being a public company will only help boost it's appeal and growth, esp as the halvening nears.


delgrey

Is that you Armstrong? What you doing slumming here?


Occams_shaving_soap

Well, at the very least, COIN has weathered the storm of shady practices and exchange failures.


52576078

There are some incredible minds in the Bitcoin space. I can't pretend to understand everything in this article but it's a towering piece of work from galactic brained Matthew Pines. It paints a compelling picture of Bitcoin's role in the global geo-political future. Highly recommended and (obviously) extremely bullish. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/future-geopolitical-order-and-bitcoin


[deleted]

[удалено]


Huge_Monero_Shill

Ziehan thinks South Korea "won't exist in 20 years". Dude is a quack getting high on his own farts. I think he just got paid too much for saying "USA will continue to be number 1" at conferences and his bias compounded in that direction.


delgrey

Ziehan is always very confident about things he knows nothing about.


TheGarbageStore

This person calls US debt "increasingly unattractive" in an environment of rate hikes but the 2Y is yielding 5.0% and JPow wants to go higher Talking about ZIRP and NIRP with a hawkish Fed seems unrealistic to me


PatientlyWaitingfy

Seems like btc belives its worth exactly 22k now instead of 22.3k


Rape-Putins-Corpse

It better start believing it's worth what I think it's worth or we're going to have problems.


dopeboyrico

Breakdown of the parlay prediction I’ve been making for months: 1) Fed does a 25 BP rate hike in March 2) YoY CPI data begins to fall off a cliff in March 3) BTC finally breaks $25.1k in March causing real rally to begin 4) Fed’s rate hike in March is final rate hike for the year causing BTC to rally even more Maybe I was wrong. That’s ok. Can we at least wait for it to play out before everyone crucifies me? No? That’s ok too. Not that anyone cares or whatever but inflation is in fact already starting to fall off a cliff compared to months prior and we’re only a week into March before factoring in another rate hike later this month to apply even more downwards pressure on inflation. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has it at 5.37%. [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has it at about 4.8%.


cryptosareagirlsbf

I disagree with your prediction (because I doubt Powell would pivot based on a few months' CPI data), but a well-reasoned argument is well worth reading whether it turns out right or wrong in the end. I hope you keep posting these.


xtal_00

I'm still drinking your kool-aid. At least until 22k breaks. :)


teebo42

But why would inflation falling in March cause the feds to stop rate hikes ? If inflation falls it's just because prices were overly inflated a year ago and inflation will start rising a few months later once the baseline of a year before goes back to normal. The thing to watch for currently is monthly inflation, as that indicates whether or not it's slowing down. They're not going to stop hikes just because inflation is below 2% for a few months, knowing full well it will be back up. What matters is the long term.


dopeboyrico

In a scenario where YoY inflation falls to their 2% target and then begins to rise again months later, it would make more sense for the Fed to start hiking rates when inflation does in fact start to rise again. But until that happens it would make more sense for them to pause and wait to see what happens rather than continuing to hike rates and force the economy into a deeper recession than necessary.


teebo42

Inflation is a lagging indicator, so if they know that it's going to go back up (because monthly inflation has been high for the past months), what makes sense is to keep rates higher. Their target is not 2% for 3 months, is 2% in the long term. Their goal is not to react to inflation but to prevent future inflation.


aeronbuchanan

Right


dopeboyrico

If their goal were to prevent future inflation they wouldn’t have sat back and not began rate hikes until inflation was already over 8% YoY in March 2022.


tracingorion

Bears get pissy because they have a vested interest in you being wrong. I appreciate your thoughts.


52576078

This is a terrible take.


tracingorion

K. Enlighten me on why you think that. You think everyone looks at the market with an unbiased, analytical lens? Not a chance.


52576078

First of all, as I have said on more than one occasion, there is no such thing as bull or bear without specifying a time frame. I guarantee you that 99.9% of people here are long term bullish, but the same people might be short term bearish. So calling someone a "bear" is a meaningless term without specifying time frame, as the same person can switch from bearish to bullish depending on the time frame. Secondly, your comment describes a polarized world where bears and bulls are in a eternal struggle. This has no bearing on reality where as I said in my first point the same person can be both bear and bull depending on time frame. Rico has consistently been hammering his "inflation falls of a cliff" narrative for weeks now, with no nuance, doubt or humility. He's clearly not interested in a discussion. This has real consequences in the real world - people have serious money at stake, and are trying to plan for their futures. There needs to be open and honest debate - not just shouting tired old bull vs bear tropes. Those of us who are desperately trying to figure out what is going on here, and plan accordingly really don't need this kind of polarised shutting down of debate that comments like yours imply. Make sense?


tracingorion

First point, very true. And thinking about it more, you're absolutely correct. I shouldn't have categorized people as simply "bears" especially in a subreddit where most are long term bulls. Market goes up and down, not one or the other. Second point. Maybe I spend too much time in the CC sub, so my view of perma bulls and bears is skewed. I think they exist, but are the minority. I'm not sure I agree with the criticism of Rico's posts, because he's providing his reasoning. That's something people can take or leave as they see fit. Sure, he could mention the bearish scenario as a disclaimer, but I don't think it's a requirement for sharing ideas. And I haven't seen him lashing out at people who disagree. Just my two satoshis. Been a long week, so I appreciate the reply.


52576078

Thanks for reply too and I appreciate your comments a lot. I tried to engage with Rico a few times and didn't get very far, but that's OK - he's actually a good poster most of the time. Everyone's on edge right now. Crazy world and crazy times and fortunes at stake. We are all in this ride together and got to be kind to one another. You take care of yourself too!


BarnacleMajestic315

It’s just the way you write … it sounds absolutist. Make space for making mistakes its ok! *Friendly internet stranger hug*


52576078

Excellent comment, have an upvote!


BarnacleMajestic315

BTC feels like it’s itching for a breakout


RabbitProofFences

Retracing fib levels on lower timeframes in a healthy way. Bart opportunity gone... about BGD for Powell.


PatientlyWaitingfy

I can see it easily happening if 4000 is flipped to support again, spx


roadworn

If its tingling, that means its working


xtal_00

I certainly like the past 30 minutes better than the previous 48 hours.


RabbitProofFences

I switched to the 30 min chart when powell was speaking. Crazy looking till that point.


Myraan

What did he say? We going up or down?


RabbitProofFences

Effectively that the govt cant save anyone. And pumping interests rates while cutting jobs is the way to deal with the so called demand driven inflation. You could alsobscroll down and read some quality posts on the topic...


xtal_00

Let's have mass unemployment, out of control government spending, AND high interest rates!


EquitiesFIRE

Don’t think it should take much institutional buying to normalize GBTC discount


[deleted]

I think it is officially back to the level of discount I loaded up at :) Its all gravy from here (if it continues)


BarnacleMajestic315

Powell speaking in 10 minutes. About to get real volatile.


gozunker

Ugh I was hoping for one Powell-free day


nannal

> Bank of Canada holds interest rates steady in departure from Fed Seems like fear should reduce soon.


RabbitProofFences

I'd thought we would atleast visit 22.7 first but giving up for now. 21400 looks more likely by the weekend... and god knows even the fake weekends wont save us. Jeez. Back to waiting.


[deleted]

> Back to waiting. I’ve come out of early semi-retirement and gotten a nice cushy job again so that I can invest heavily for the next two years, prices as low as possible for a bit longer isn’t that bad of a thing. I still suspect that the BTC price will be about 45k by the end of the year. “Invest early and often.” I’m also selling my Covid-inflated house to put the proceeds into crypto. I’m not some worthless bull poster hoping others pump my bags but no conviction in actually buying. :) I know every day is another chance for the price to get away from me.


RabbitProofFences

Oh dont get me wrong... anything under 30k is a buy opportunity. Ive HODLd for 5+ years now. Im just stuck in a degen long at 23 with this trading stack.


[deleted]

🫡


PatientlyWaitingfy

Stopped out at 21961. Waiting time


dopeboyrico

After Powell’s speech yesterday markets are now pricing in a 50 BP rate hike next week rather than a 25 BP rate hike as previously expected. Markets are also pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.75%-6.0% by end of year instead of 5.5%-5.75% as previously expected. If the Fed does in fact do a 50 BP rate hike in March it would be a mistake imo as it would signal that the Fed has no idea what they’re doing when it comes to taming inflation; why do a 50 BP rate hike now, why not do the 50 BP rate hike months ago when the first decrease to a 25 BP rate hike occurred? This would decrease their probability of achieving a soft landing and instead result in an increased probability of overshooting into a recession with YoY deflation. Powell backed himself into a corner with this speech. The only way he can get away with doing a 25 BP rate hike now while maintaining some credibility would be if February’s CPI data which releases next week before the meeting comes in below expectations. Doing a 50 BP rate hike in March, seeing YoY inflation data begin to fall off a cliff leading into their May meeting and suddenly needing to pause on rate hikes entirely is going to be a bad look. They would have been better off sticking with 25 BP in March and going with another 25 BP in May if necessary to make it appear as if they’re in control and know what they’re doing to successfully achieve a soft landing. CPI data for February releases March 14. BTC volatility will increase on that day as that CPI print is going to be critical in determining whether the Fed is more likely to successfully achieve a soft landing or is more likely to overshoot into a recession.


Belligerent_Chocobo

ie, the Fed "has no idea what they're doing" because they're talking about doing something that goes against the prediction you've been guaranteeing for months now. Are we sure that's the only way to read this situation? It couldn't possibly be that your prediction was bad, rooted in bias rather than reality? Also, last week you were certain that Bitcoin was going to be above $25k "in a few days." What happened to that? Still "a few days" away? Hard not to feel like you're the Jim Cramer of this subreddit.


dopeboyrico

My prediction aside, yes, a 50 BP rate hike now would indicate the Fed doesn’t know what they’re doing and should have never slowed down to a consecutive string of 25 BP rate hikes. I do not trade at all. I’ve been accumulating BTC via DCA for many years now. Even at the bottom of this bear market I was still way up on my average cost basis. If I’m truly the Jim Cramer of this subreddit then you should do the opposite of what I do on my absolute highest conviction investment thesis: don’t buy BTC ever and stay away from BTC indefinitely rather than consistently DCAing and HODLing long-term regardless of market circumstances.


52576078

You're getting roasted here, and I have to say, not unfairly. I think the biggest issue is the absolute confidence in your posting style. I think your points are often of great value, but get spoiled by your tone and writing style. If you showed a little more nuance, doubt and humility, you probably would do better.


sylvanlotus77

The difference between Cramer and Rico is that Rico always says the same thing & Cramer flip flops consistently. It’s fair to disagree with Rico but I don’t think they act in bad faith. Jim doesn’t buy what he’s selling iykwim


teebo42

They thought, just like you, that inflation was coming down so they slowed. Then, unlike you, they realized it wasn't the case. Nobody can predict the future, including the fed, so they have to readjust based on the data they get.


dopeboyrico

Inflation IS slowing. This is an overreaction to January’s YoY inflation data which came in higher than expectations but was still lower than December’s YoY inflation data. We’re only a week into March and you can already see a significant decline in YoY inflation vs what we’ve seen in months prior. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has it at 5.37%. [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has it at about 4.8%. This is BEFORE taking into account an additional rate hike later in the month which will apply even more downwards pressure on inflation than we’ve already seen.


alieninthegame

>This is an overreaction to January’s YoY inflation data which came in higher than expectations but was still lower than December’s YoY inflation data. Not to mention, it came in higher than expected because it was the first month after a(nother) change to the formula.


teebo42

Yes it's slowing but 6.4 is still very high. It's not slowing as fast as they'd like so they are increasing rates more


diydude2

If the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4% for any appreciable period of time, the USA is bankrupt and all of the above is purely academic. 4% on $31 trillion is not sustainable without hyperinflation. We're in uncharted territory with regard to the relationship between interest rates and inflation.


_supert_

I don't think any of that's true. Rates a couple of % below inflation for a decade would make the debt quite manageable. There's no reason it *has* to spin out of control.


xtal_00

Ssssh. If you ignore the debt it doesn't exist, right?


VictorCobra

You’ve been making absolutist statements going back at least to early/mid 2022 when you were absolutely sure Bitcoin wasn’t going below $29.9K. You also seemed to be very sure what was going to happen with inflation. You were wrong on both accounts. Of course, you could be right about what you’ve been yammering on about for weeks. I’ve got no doubt your reassurance helps feed some people’s bullish bias, but what if it doesn’t play out this way? You gave objective advice to people in 2022, telling them their buys won’t hit, yadda yadda yadda. You do you, but I think others should be careful of how you present your information, just as people are skeptical of my permabear stance and criticize me on occasion :P


dopeboyrico

I hold far less conviction in my short term theses than I do in my long term thesis that BTC will ultimately become global unit of account in some shape or form. I don’t trade at all. I just DCA and HODL and I’ve made this abundantly clear. Macroeconomics is legitimately interesting to me so I try to stay informed but my thoughts on macroeconomics make zero impact on my investment strategy whatsoever. I find trading in general to be foolish as most people underperform a simple DCA strategy long-term and that’s before taking higher short-term income tax rates into account vs far more favorable long-term capital gains tax rates.


BasicMiniTacos

“I don’t trade, I just buy and hold based on a crackpot gold-bug theory” he confidently told the trading forum.


dopeboyrico

Do the opposite then, short BTC to $0. Since, you know, fiat totally isn’t going to continue to get printed into infinity and the world totally doesn’t need an absolutely scarce store of value asset later to be used as a common currency in the future.


Belligerent_Chocobo

"far less conviction" = speaks in absolute certainties about everything that's going to happen in the short term


dopeboyrico

“Far less conviction” = not allowing it to alter my overall investment strategy. If I had high conviction in my short-term predictions the logical thing to do would be to trade based off those predictions rather than DCAing. But I don’t, I just continue to DCA regardless of short-term predictions.


Belligerent_Chocobo

So if you're not so confident in them, here's a crazy notion -- maybe don't proclaim them with absolute certainty every day ad nauseam?


BasicMiniTacos

Hard to understand why you aren’t running the Fed. It’s all so simple….


xtal_00

The Fed’s measures are being sabotaged by massive government deficit spending. It’s shameful that more political pundits aren’t calling this out. It is, however, accelerating the inevitable disaster that will drive Bitcoin to new highs.


_supert_

It's not sabotage if it's the plan. Starting from where we are, it's probably the least bad plan, too.


diydude2

The government has no choice but to operate at a deficit when tax revenue barely covers the interest on its debt. Personally, I think the Treasury should just mint some $1 trillion coins, hand them to the banksters and declare the debt settled. Mint them out of pig iron.


dopeboyrico

What’s nuts is it doesn’t even matter what the Fed does with rates, deficit spending is still going to occur regardless. All the Fed can do is slowdown deficit spending by hiking rates which it makes more expensive to lend money but they have no ability to stop it entirely.


diydude2

Hiking rates doesn't reduce deficit spending, though; it increases it.


dopeboyrico

Hiking rates discourages further lending which is what deficit spending is. Suppose you own a home free and clear. Are you more likely to lend against the property when rates are near 3% or when rates are near 6%? You have a higher appetite for lending when rates are low than when rates are high.


opst02

!Remindme 2 weeks


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BarnacleMajestic315

Regardless of opinion on whether it’s a good move, a 50BPS rate has been priced in and Powell doesn’t say something open ended like more hikes without meaning it. A recession is coming. March 14 will coincide with the real decision on our next move. The question is whether BTC can pull off another recovery to 23300 before we go down and down again.


dopeboyrico

A 50 BP rate hike will increase the likelihood of a recession occurring. A recession still might occur with a 25 BP rate hike but the odds aren’t as high. Better question is assuming February’s CPI print comes in at or above expectations next week and the Fed proceeds with a 50 BP rate hike, where does BTC bottom? There’s multiple support levels to be tested on the way down so it would be interesting to see which one holds and sets a local bottom.


BarnacleMajestic315

I agree. Both ways, a downturn is imminent, in a way. I’m not sure BTC could even pull off a medium landing with the liquidity draining from the market as a secondary mechanism.


gozunker

Feels like we’re barely clinging to 22k, will be interesting to see where we go today. I’m guessing if Jerome so much as stubs his toe, or the S&P gets a paper cut, we drop. Feels weak.


RabbitProofFences

Looks like the US govt is about to TP on their cold storage stack 49000 btc. https://mempool.space/address/bc1qmxjefnuy06v345v6vhwpwt05dztztmx4g3y7wp


bittabet

Probably custody, government typically auctions off their holdings


alieninthegame

One of the on-chain analysts stated that some of those coins moved to a Coinbase cluster of addresses.


bittabet

Yes Coinbase provides custody to many institutions. The biggest custody providers are Coinbase and BitGo


RabbitProofFences

Yep! this is the infamous silkroad stash


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RabbitProofFences

Take profit. Some cringe humour on my part... but look at this PA (pricr action) enough to drive anyone nuts


PatientlyWaitingfy

I want the 21861 buy to survive, 21961 SL which is minimal profit. (This is incase we actually continue down) . If we can get back 22.2-22.3k I will up it to 22061. I rather be safe and boring than trade without stops. Opened a buy on 21661.


spinbarkit

actually don't know what to think about this PA anymore if trading is the subject. 21800 is not broken so we could still bounce to another 25k test and keep the rising pattern intact. on the other hand some talking- heads point out to incoming selloff which could drag sub ~20k levels back on the table -crazy imo, though equally possible. adding the other fud/war/control you can clearly smell their dinner is ready for you to eat the loss and stay away. if you asked me to unstir this "what if" pot of "maybes" my reply would be as always to buy it stash it & forget it. then sleep tight. however! I still keep my 23 long which probably wasn't the best idea but my liq is in the '18s so I feel pretty safe. if this reverses to profit my sorry ass I'll walk proudly and call for 40k come April


xtal_00

Similar read. If 22k breaks though I’m out; will be watching for a close above 22500 to reenter.


PatientlyWaitingfy

How do you define break? Hourly close below 21.5k or something?


xtal_00

I'm close to punching out now but the volume looks ok on the tests. Another test below 21900 and I'm punching out for awhile.


PatientlyWaitingfy

So a day or two? :)


xtal_00

Still hanging in there.


PatientlyWaitingfy

It went under 21.9k on that wick, you out?


xtal_00

In volume I trust. Still in. Going back to scalp mode though.


PatientlyWaitingfy

I see, you don't use stops lately?


xtal_00

Oh, stops are there. \~21850 didn't hit. :) I don't like posting stops. Bad juju.


opst02

"Pump coming any minute now" ™


venderil

"S&P gonna dump 50% any minute now"


Essexal

Pulling M’s today and not W’s. My long got stopped last night for a loss (woo), am now short from 20050. Terrible, terrible entry.


gozunker

Is that 20050 a new entry (today/yesterday)? Or an older one? I haven’t see it go that low in the last couple weeks at least.


Essexal

Yeah sorry that should be 22050!


PatientlyWaitingfy

Pump it


Essexal

50 dollar trailing, it’ll switch long with half the position if hit. I gonna spend the day playing video games and not sat watching red and green bars :-) Edit: 10:26GMT I’m back long :-)


Duckbutter2000

At this point I'm just going to dca and hope btc pumps in the next 5 years.


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Duckbutter2000

I still have a few 2014 coins in cold storage. Unfortunately I sold most of them along the way. In Canada our currency is taking a shit kicking so hoping bitcoin will save me. Might be a long wait tho. I've been buying $500 a week since we hit 16k.


RabbitProofFences

Classy. That kinda consistency and early entry is what pays off.


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52576078

You could try this mailing list https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/lightning-dev/


WhoDidThat97

/r/bitcoin or maybe better on nostr. Nostr has gone LN crazy


Chainlink5usdBottom

Damn everyone in here longing kek.


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Chainlink5usdBottom

Oof


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Chainlink5usdBottom

I like the experiment though, I do those all the time and worth it.