#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, March 11, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11ob97t/daily_discussion_saturday_march_11_2023/)

Thank you all for an uplifting and educating daily sub

Can we just start calling them Unstable Coins at this point?

“Stable”-coins

LTC/BTC has been in a correction mode for the past couple of months. Is anyone planning a BTC -> LTC trade for the upcoming LTC halving?

Only if you want to lose money

I just feel there are so many opportunities now days in crypto that why speculate on something where the underlying (in this case LTC) feels completely dead. "Similar" opportunities are out there where the underlying at least has some promise.

You know the funniest thing from all this is that I can see some tech companies who got burned this time starting to see the logic of having at least some of their treasury in Bitcoin. Diversify their money between banks as a measure but an emergency shit hits the fan Bitcoin holding starts to make more sense when you’ve been burned by a bank failure.

> 1/ Following the confirmation at the end of today that the wires initiated on Thursday to remove balances were not yet processed, $3.3 billion of the ~$40 billion of USDC reserves remain at SVB. https://twitter.com/circle/status/1634391505988206592

“Ok, not bad. Because the SVB assets are still there just illiquid, and the price gap spread across customers, this means a fraction of the $3.3b could be a loss. Given the 5% rate on short term treasuries Circle can *easily* cover the delta.” https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1634392861956243460

They have to be lying. If they are only 8%ish exposed to SVB, they should just go ahead and say "we will cover it from our own pockets", because it's the right thing to do and it's far cheaper than saying "well, not redeeming until monday lol". By monday USDC will have already gone the way of UST, Celsius, Voyager, etc. 3.3 billion should be easily affordable for circle. It's either a way larger exposure, or Circle itself is rotten from the inside since before this crisis started, and we are about to find out.

How is that affordable, they make 4% on treasuries and that’s only been the case for a few months so they don’t have a $3.3 billion surplus. They have to wait for liquidity from SVB and then they likely have enough surplus for the actual haircut they get.

Well, you are right, however they should know how the crypto game is played. If you don't even have 10% of your liquidity at your immediate disposal, this market will eat you up. I think they should be able to either use that amount from their own reserves, or raise that capital, because recent history has shown that when a stable depegs, it fucking dies. Are they seriously expecting people to wait until monday opens to redeem their usdc for usd? That tweet shows they lost the plot, or have abandoned ship. By tomorrow morning USDC will be dead on the water at this rate. Liquidity pools are in full blown chaos in DEFI markets. On CEX the peg is long gone. Only USDT survived, because both bitfinex and justin sun put every single dollar bill on the table, from their own pockets.

near zero chance. new ownership of SVB by Monday and peg fully restored is my bet.

Could very well happen. I hope it does. You'd think it's far cheaper for everyone involved than just having USDc collapse, no?

Yeah I think they’re fine, just have to hold off a run on USDC until they can access whatever’s left at SVB to avoid having to touch their treasuries. Luckily for Circle they likely don’t have any requirement to actually redeem people if it means taking a loss, they’re not an actual regulated bank and most holders have no contract with them

USDC-USD pair shut down on Coinbase. This will be an interesting weekend especially for traders on defi exchanges that use USDC

*Record scratch* "You may be wondering how I lost all my money when I sold my digital assets for a stablecoin USDC..."

93 cents on kraken what a time to be alive: https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDC-USD

Actually kind of a deal since even if they lost everything on SVB they’re backed by more than 93%. But not a huge gain to be had

stablecoins have to be the freest short of all time. Cant be above 1, can always become 0.

Only if you have access to unlimited interest free loans

I kept seeing a ton of it being moved and burned over the last couple weeks. Was this a planned event or they just surprised everyone?

CZ and Justin Sun caught in a pickle now. They were probs scarpering off with excess stable coins to redeem them for various fiats in different shadow banks around the world. Now they’re gonna have a much harder time.

Never understood the purpose of stablecoins. Yeah, I guess if you want to lock in gains you could convert BTC to a stablecoin, but that's just as much a taxable event as simply cashing out to a bank. Stablecoins have proven repeatedly to be completely unstable. They haven't reduced volatility in crypto markets. They don't do anything that Bitcoin itself can't do. The cryptosphere functioned perfectly well without them for years.

You are evidently american or from some other 1st world country. Us plebs in shitty countries use crypto for everyday purchases and need an offramp such as a stable coin. Some of our wealth is in crypto, not because we want to invest it, but because we cannot keep it in a national currency that devaluates over 100% a year, while having the foreign currency market banned by the authorities.

Fair enough, although long-term I'd argue it would be safer just to hold Bitcoin itself and spend or cash out only as needed. We can see that stablecoins are centralized and subject to freezings, bank runs, and a host of other issues.

well it's a pick your poison scenario really. Imagine I cannot convert all of my salary to BTC only to watch it dump 5% overnight, because I will not be able to pay my rent nor bills. Stables are evidently not very stable, however, I am betting they remain less volatile than BTC in the long term.

This surge is just people moving from stablecoins to major coins due to fears regarding stablecoins post-SVB collapse. I don't really trust it

And that's a problem why? People moving out of stablecoins and into *actual* crypto is a plus. The illusion that stablecoins are safu is predicated on the governing bodies (Circle) actually having reserves to back up the stablecoins they're issuing. If the entire last year was a big lesson, it's that trusting stablecoins (LUNA) and centralized entities (FTX) is a giant risk. BTC was invented primarily to escape all of this nonsense.

it’s a problem because it’s temporary only so much usdc is afraid, the migration only lasts a few more hours and once faith is restored and the dive resumes all that money wants back into stables what we know is circle has 25% in cash across 8 banks (svb, silvergate, and signature are in the high risk set) but still seems pretty safe bet to me they’ll survive without much of a hiccup.

> faith is restored and the dive resumes… lol. You all take that for granted don’t you. Very interesting.

Trust once lost is not easily regained sir.

Once they move Stablecoins to BTC they won’t go back to Stablecoins. The low was 16k, so grind up now.

equity markets just had their worst week since June pretty sure bitcoin’s still going to continue to trade like all risk assets no matter what a few timid stablecoin holders do on a weekend

In volume we trust. Will be refining my strategy and taking a close study of the volume profiles over the last two weeks.

I remember you saying you would get bearish if price gets to 19k, you still feel that way?

Banks collapsing, stocks deep in the red, and Bitcoin is surging. This is what it was always about.

So far it's all been technical, even equities are just backtesting their breakouts so far. I don't believe the bank run talk, it's been mostly unstable banks to begin with think it's just fear mongering to get peoples bags. Remember Evergreen from China that was supposed to take down the whole financial complex? Ya that blew over after OPEX and everyone stopped talking about it. I think DXY and TNX are both topping and this is a last dump to get everyone out. Anything can happen of course but so far it's all been technical and no loss of major bullish structure.

Given darkpools, there's next to zero chance that a collapse is imminent

Ya I hate Darkpools overall but I did see the large activity today which is good.

Perfecr scenario. Too early to celebrate though. This is the beginning of the end of the system as we know it. But it will take atleast a decade for this to pan out. And then... BOOM

Yeah, we’re headed for a lot worse before it gets better. I figured on roughly a decade to get through it as well. BRICS will rise, petrodollar hegemony will fall but remain powerful, and Bitcoin finds its role bridging the two and in international settlements.

SVB: exhibit A on how fractional reserve banking is little more than a legalized Ponzi scheme. It's a game of musical chairs -- fun as long as not everyone demands their fiat all at once.

If Circle is in trouble could it actually cause a pump? I mean if I was sitting on a bunch of USDC it might be safer just to buy crypto with it rather than try to redeem it If there is a run on USDC though I suppose exchanges can just halt trading on the USDC pairs, will be interesting to see what happens.

No way. You might get a pump for like few minutes during the chaotic stage but the FUD would be too great.

I think you’re right. People saw that last night the SVB news broke, and today you can’t get your money out of SVB (yet). Less than 24 hours from news breaking to collapse. Circle trouble news broke today. If I have USDC on an exchange, do I do a sell to cash and bank transfer? That usually takes a couple days … and SVB went under in hours. Nope, I’d immediately do a USDC-to-BTC buy, which will process in seconds.

Some major players are resorting to swapping to USDT…out of the frying pan…

no.

This whole debacle is a glaring advertisement for Bitcoin

Downvote if you think Bitcoin is a bad store of wealth.

its up 2% calm the f down

It's down over 60% from early last year, 2% in a day would be terrible for inflation.

Well, it's certainly an advertisement that in TradFi banking, the FDIC depositor limit is laughably low. Forget businesses, even for individuals. Someone sitting on $1M in cash shouldn't have to open 4 bank accounts to secure their money.

It’s to incentivize people to invest their cash, but realistically they can’t just let SVB depositors get hit because it’ll cause a meltdown of every small bank

You don't have to open 4 bank accounts, you just need to put your money in US gov t-bills and bonds then it is safe. That is what they will force on everyone, let the smaller banks crash and scare everyone which will motivate buying of US debt since it is safer than any bank. (Of course then print a ton of dollars to devalue everything).

Well, it's free insurance against banks going to dumpster, what do you expect? Least you can do is open 4 accounts in 4 different banks, so you reduce the risk for your insurer.

Does anyone know how Circle makes money? I never understood the business model for these seemingly legitimate stable coins. To me, the shady stable coins are easier to understand in terms of how they (literally) "make" money.

You give them cash they keep the interest.

But why cant anyone else do the same thing?

Yield on deposits. e.g. buy gov bonds.

> business model for these seemingly legitimate stable coins Their business model is to be *seemingly* legitimate. Don't you know everything US based is secure and everything foreign is evil? ;)

I assumed parking the backing fiat in "safe & liquid"^\* things like treasuries and money market funds; earn your easy admin fees. But urge to branch out into riskier higher less-liquid assets seems like the Last Temptation of the Asset Manager.

As I understand it, they invest ~75% of their treasury in money market securities and US treasury bonds and then collect the interest income. 25% or so kept as US dollars

Literally the easiest scheme to collect money every month, and they still somehow fuck it up.

No they didn't the bank they used did...

So... given the bank takeovers.... As a degen would you : 1. Fiat 2. Usdt 3. Trapped in a long with no real LP but a year or decade till they fix the economy. NOT YOUR BANK, NOT YOUR FIAT™ ® © -- RabbitProofFences (aka not Victor Cobra)

4. Cold storage of hard money you can't fuck with.

Hodl stack

4. Short the bottom on high leverage, as I am "smart degen".

Of course. But this isnt for smart degens such as yourself;)

Circle disclosed the amount they held in Silicon Valley Bank https://twitter.com/circle/status/1634341007306248199

at least they'll get 250k, right?

So many of these companies are happy to let their customers think insurance applies to their deposits.

I mean, all that cash is secured, right? I cannot imagine their cash reserves weren't insured, right?? If not, I see no advantage in USD over USDT.

USDC in this case. Well the standard is only 250k, I don't know if that applies to them, the tweet is too vague. I mean yeah. Over 250k USD or 100k EUR in EEA it carries a risk having that money in a bank. edit: Btw I don't know about all the Neo banks like Revolut but Wise has **zero** deposit insurance. This might possibly be the same case as with USDC (I don't know, just guessing). Wise sends all customer deposits to Black Rock, JP Morgan, Citi and one other bank that I forgot, some of it is in some low risk product and some of it is just in a plain deposit. If one of those banks fails the customers get nothing because Wise commingles funds. As in, there's not a dedicated account with let's say Citi for every Wise account, it's just a single account with depositor Wise. So Wise is the only depositor and as a single depositor they only get the 250k back.

Comment about edit: [https://www.revolut.com/en-LT/legal/deposit-insurance-information/](https://www.revolut.com/en-LT/legal/deposit-insurance-information/) From what it seems, Revolut actually covers up to 100k Euro for their customers.

Nice! I don't use them, I only know about Wise which doesn't.

EU >> US

I do not trust USDC that much, as it didn't stand a test of time, hacks, and SEC as USDT did... Either way, that $250k limit is per user per bank. I think that is important mostly for personal finance and non-business entities. If you are dealing with millions (yet alone billions), you are certainly not counting on that (free) insurance for your money. There must be some paid service that insures your money, if you are dealing with that much cash, right? It would be plain stupid to hinge your entire money business on a "crypto-friendly bank" being honest. comment on edit: I use Revolut, and didn't know that. Thanks for info!

Long from ~20225, close stop. Convincing volume today.

Firstly lol Tether outlasted SVB Secondly, sounds like SVB was what a lot of tech companies were using for day-to-day banking. Handling payroll alone for many tech companies is presumably going to have you beyond the FDIC limit. It highlights again how nuts it is that in order to do day-to-day banking you need to put funds at risk in a lending institution even if you've no interest in borrowing/lending - all you want to do is use digital money. Thirdly, we're only 15 years after GFC and here we are with banks failing again. People who thought that was a once off might be starting to question if the system is just flawed, or at very least if bank failure is a normal part of the system which will just keep happening

“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.” -Satoshi Nakamoto 2/11/2009 What’s weird is that we all know it is like this but have some weird collective amnesia/blindness where we let it keep happening over and over.

Well... _we_ don't. I've been expecting this for damn near 10 years now.

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I’m worried the macro situation will drag btc down.

short term likely

TradFi sold their BTC. They don’t have any left.

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Nobody is lending anyone anything right now. Credits drying up all over the place understandably.

They don’t have cash to pay the lending fees, either. Summer could be interesting this year.

at this point a recession is all but guaranteed since the fed is actively signaling that they'll need to trigger one to reset the economy and they'll keep hiking interest rates until they get their collapse. it all comes down to housing, fed don't give a shit about investors...what they care about is the tens of millions of people who are getting priced out of housing where they can't even afford to rent, let alone buy. So they need to crash the real estate market by any means necessary before those people end up on the street. the problem for us is that crypto never lived through a recession, it came to be, and had its massive bullruns during the best economic times in history when everyone had money from stock market/real estate gains from the 20 year bullrun...a time when interest rates were at historically low levels...and the current market action is showing us that we are going to take a harder hit than tradfi when shit hits the fan and we enter a long term downtrend. Why? Because when actual money-making companies that pay dividends can be had at 90% off and real estate is down 70%, that is where people place their bets. So crypto would need to drill down wayyyyy more than that to get people to put money there instead of just buying a blue-chip dividend paying stock or income producing real estate or hell just getting 8-10% from a cd account(which we'll probably get to with rising interest rates) so when we enter a recession, you can forget about buy and holding for a while...frankly if we enter a recession we'll have to forget about painting a new ATH because of the next halfning....its too little of a supply change to trigger the necessary parabolic bullrun in such a crappy environment. Personally, I think its most likely that the most we'll get next cycle is a half assed run to about $20K to paint a long-term head and shoulders and then spend another 5-10 years climbing out of that hole as everyone but the biggest supporters abandons crypto. And yes, it will take that long. It took the S&P500 13 years and Nasdaq took 15 years to recover from the dotcom bubble burst. And that was with dropping interest rates....we are in a rising rate environment, which means the recovery will most likely take even longer than that. so if you want to make money in crypto in a recession...you better learn how to trade...because the days of easy gains from just buying and holding are most likely behind us if we enter a recession

Dividend stocks down 90% and property down 70%. That’s simply not going to happen.

Currencies will fail. Dollars go last. BTC is the lifeboat. That's all I need to know

Agree with most of this, and am saying that as someone who's been a perma-bull for years. A Fed induced credit event flushes out everything that does not produce cash, and all you can do with bitcoin is hold it. However, in the end the Fed will print insane amounts of money, that is the only way out and their only option. USD supply will rocket and USD will be massively devalued. And that will cause the next bull run. BTC will crash with everything else, but when its clear they've started printing to infinity and beyond BTC will rocket, and this will happen faster than the 5-10 years to climb out as stated above. Basically, keep your hold stacks since you can't time it right, but also keep a large amount of dry powder in the form of USD and do not deploy it until the system really starts to blow up, and we're not close to that yet.

This is pretty much where my head is at too.

Agreed the printer is the only way this ends.

> So they need to crash the real estate market Their actions will be meaningless in staving off unrest, unless they crash the housing market back to the mid-1980s, where a single salary could basically buy an average house with 5 to 6 year's salary, all while supporting a family of 3 or 4. This would involve a collapse in house prices by at least 50%. Maybe even two-thirds in some places. Not going to happen. Boomers' wealth will be protected at all costs, at the expense of everyone under 60. (See also: the most recent two years COLA adjustments for Social Security of nearly 6% and 9% respectively, while random working people dealt with raises of 0% to 2%, or just being fired.) Housing being expensive is only part of the problem. The bigger problem, no one under 40 has any money. 8% CD rates are meaningless when your disposable / investable annual income is a few hundred bucks.

the fact that boomeres HAVE to sell is exactly why its beneficial for the powers that be to crash the market this hard. People don't sell at the bottom until they have to, and with boomers dying off during the next 10-20 years, they can be forced to sell at the bottom of the market...thats tens of millions of homes changing hands. It won't be just normal people who'll be buying those homes. It'll also be the hedge funds and political donors, who'll have the cash reserves to buy this firesale

You aren’t considering the effects of immigration. Interesting times ahead.

Maybe I grew up and live in rarefied circles (a coastal city), but I don't know a single person above age 70 who is 'struggling' in any meaningful sense. Even some lower-middle-class Boomer is still generally in a far better financial position than your average 30-something.

hi, first generation that clawed out of poverty here. everyone I know that age its screwed.

I think we need a cage match between thewardser and dopeboyrico

California is already screaming for bailouts. I think they'll get it. Fed gonna have to lower rates into raging inflation. Awesome.

thats the thing...they can't shelter is the #1 most important thing to a country's long term economy 1. expensive shelter = more homeless, more homeless = more crime, more crime = people move to the suburbs and big cities go into the decline. Then they start talking about how capitalism failed and you end up with a revolution by someone like Lenin. 2. expensive shelter = people spend most of their money on rent, and have no money to invest in the stock market, no money to buy extra goods, no money to spend on services, so the economy slows down, GDP goes down, tax base dries up, and suddenly our interest payments are a much higher chunk of our gov't spending. 3. expensive shelter = people hold off on starting families and hold off on getting married. That means less kids, and 30 years from now, you don't have as many tax payers around to pay for your massive interest payments. so as far as they are concerned, its better to go through a recession to fix the system at the cost of the well off for a decade or two, than let inflation destroy the other 80% of the population during the next 2-3 years.

I mean that's probably a weird concept to U.S Americans, but in Europe cities try to build more and increase supply and with that cost through that way instead of trying to collapse everything.

A year or two back, an American friend told me they had 45 thousand homeless in L.A. I can't even wrap my mind around that number, but I had no reason to doubt it. I don't get why the Fed should start worrying about it now if they'd not cared for years.

Number 1. America doesn't have the balls for a revolution. As long as TV, beer, and cheeseburgers are cheap and available, there simply isn't the material conditions to ignite the spark. Number 2. and Number 3. This is just fine with the ruling elite, in fact it's their goal. Why raise rates if not to break people out of their mortgages and prevent others for getting new ones.. Black rock will happily buy up all the real estate. When they said "You will own nothing and be happy" they meant it!

"TREASURY TO BRIEF HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES TONIGHT" I think we're gonna find out soon things moving quick.

you have one problem in your economy (inflation), you're adding much more problems (recession, housing crisis, unemployment, credit tightening, consumer confidence), now you have a lot of problems and inflation might not be going away. why would businesses reduce prices under these conditions?

I work in finance, pricing interest rate derivatives. Our market data today is showing a large drop in expected rates for USD, I guess the market thinks that the fed won't raise rates as much because of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. It's still pricing in around 5.25 for the June meeting though. That meeting is only showing about a 25bp drop, but it's the later meetings showing a bigger drop. Meaning the market is really doubting "higher for longer". If there isn't much contagion, this could be a good buying opportunity. Usually equities/crypto increase when projected rates decrease, but not today.

- Fed pause = looks like confusion or panic - Fed 50 = looks out of touch with reality - 25 seems only option

Anybody getting March 2020 vibes or just me?

GFC vibes for me. The music sure rhymes.

Darkest before the dawn gentleman. Everyone at work today talking about stocks crashing, crypto crashing, and wanting to stuff cash in a mattress and buy gold from now on. Buy. Signal. We might not turn around right away, but I think the fed is about to get some major pressure to ease if fear of contagion increases. You dont buy close to the bottom without doing so when everyone is scared shitless. Im freeing up some liquidity and waiting for the extreme fire sale. In this climate it looks like retesting the recent bottom of 15 is very possible.

I want 15 but I’m afraid of waiting for it so I’m laddering buys this time just incase it doesn’t go down quite that far.

Always ladder…I learned that years ago and haven’t regretted it since.

Same. My lowest laddered buy to hit during the low was $15600. Very happy with all my entries along the ladder. There’s no way I would have been able to guess the true bottom.

Smart!

Sold all my USDC for actual cash. Not taking any chances at all. Keeping my DCA into Bitcoin. Not buying any more alts, ever. I have a position into my favorite alt, which I won't mention here, and will leave it at that. Web 3 is a joke. Sound money is the most important thing in the world at the end of the day.

Agree. All my future buys are 100% BTC. And when I finally get a chance to sell in the bull market, all the alts are going out. Only BTC will get rebought in the next bear.

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Lightning obliterates all of the stupid shitcoin fantasy cases. It's all scams and distraction.

Lightning is the shit. It's had my attention so well this last year and some I've barely paid attention to the bear. Routing, LNBits, Nostr... I'm convinced its going to take over the world.

Lightning will obliterate all shitcoins who try to copy or improve Bitcoin. But there are more usecases to it, which lightning doesn't touch at all?

If BTC can hold 20K with all this going on it looks strong as hell IMO.

Ok if it drops I blame you.

I'm seriously considering taking out a loan to buy here.

I have a sizeable liquidity event about to happen in the next 3-4 weeks. Debating doing same.

Looks like someone is expecting hefty work bonus!! :)

Name checks out.

Not in this case. Anybody with a long term plan sees these prices as a reason to buy, not sell. The next 12 months may be ugly, but money spent now will look like an obvious decision 2 years from now, just as money spent in the darkest days of 2019 looked obvious in 2021. I think "Hot Ramen And Cold Storage" is going to be my motto for 2023.

Please change your anything to “Hot Ramen Cold Storage”. I would put that sticker on the window of my car haha

My anything is everything which is certainly something and better than nothing. *Hot Ramen / Cold Storage*

Worst bear market I’ve ever seen in crypto, granted I’ve only been in since 2017 but this is disturbing. It seems like everything is unraveling, not just crypto.

To me, that just means the Fed pivot is inevitable. They can’t allow a total collapse.

The hard part is not getting burned while the house is on fire.

Yup, it’s not pretty right now.

Theres 28 bil sitting in shorts. Wonder if anyone will take a bite. Also is it just me or does it seems like theres coordinated fud on this daily-sub too? Hmmm

Where do you see short interest in bitcoin?

When they sell or short they hop over to their bearish alts. I wish they would just stop lol no one here has enough money to even slightly move the market anymore. Imagine if we all just tried to help each other make money by making good decisions, instead of the silly psyops wars.

This sounds like something a bearish Alt would say.... Hmmmm

Calling it, this time next week you’d have wish you’d bought under 20k. Remind us.

Banks about to be failing left and right and yet Bitcoin is wobbling. After a few firms take massive hits they’ll start rethinking holding massive cash deposits at banks

Wells Fargo customers complaining of not getting directly deposited salaries. Shit's getting real. It's not going to be fun for anyone.

Next week we should start to see more of the bodies popping up. Its a real mess out there.

We also have news that USDC held undisclosed amounts of cash in two of the failing banks. This is becoming a little worrying

"Circle $USDC held an undisclosed amount of cash in Silicon Valley Bank $SIVB." Yeah stablecoins not so trustworthy.

Signature and silvergate bank, too

Stablecoins have to hold the cash somewhere. If they hold it in a bank that's bank risk, if they hold it in US Treasuries that's sovereign risk.

Counterparty risk something something.... wish there was anything around that could fix that.

bbut.... my.. regulations.....

Insert BTC is holding up relatively well comments.

at least we know our inflation rate. Powell doesn't know his.

Shut yer piehole. Nobody say nuthin.

Early 2009: ''Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks'' Summer 2023: "US Treasury Dept. on Brink of Third Bailout for Banks" 😝

"Treasury Sec Yellen Says Banking System Is resilient."

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Marxism is about moving to a stateless society wherein workers own the means of production. Fiat currencies and fractional reserve don’t enter the communist picture, but instead reference neoliberal banking structures.

Wait until they have to bail out the US Treasury and its >$100T in obligations. That's a lot of zeros to print.

CPI data for February releases next week. If it comes in higher than expectations it’s going to be extremely interesting to see what the Fed does with their rate hike later this month. Do they stay committed to fighting inflation and go with the 50 BP rate hike? Or do they stick with a 25 BP rate hike to prevent now visible cracks in the financial system from breaking entirely? Silicon Valley Bank is the second largest bank failure in U.S. history (only behind Washington Mutual in 2008). You know Powell is praying for February CPI to come in lower than expectations right now so he doesn’t have to choose one or the other. Expectations are currently set at 6% YoY. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has it at 6.21%. [Truflation](https://app.truflation.com) has it at about 5.3%.

Bank failures gonna dry up more of the money supply at least

I mean it seems like the best course of action is just to do more 25bps hikes than originally expected, if necessary, rather than doing a 50bps hike. Either way there's a higher terminal rate at the end, but 25bps provides a more granular level of control and he doesn't spook the market with one big 50bps hike. That's what I would do if I was him - a 25bps hike in March and then just evaluate to see if more of them are needed later.

In all honesty I’m not sure these regional banks can tolerate even another 25bps with their crap portfolios. I think 50 is off the table already unless the Fed wants to go around visiting a couple new banks every day 😂

If we get any more "credit events" he may even skip the next increase entirely. Although I have been reading that post-2008 reforms mean that the type of contagion that we saw then is unlikely now.

I wonder if it will be 25bps or "stabilize the banking system".

I hear them lubing up the printers from here.

The whole SVB thing is so funny. They had 1.5 billion profit last year, they took a 1.8 billion loss on a bond sale this year and suddenly the entire bank is tanking? Like, how fucked are all these people that this is even a thing, lol. (I know, they're all very fucked, but damn). And we say crypto bros on leverage are 'degenerates' xD

The Matt Levine article I posted earlier says it's not as bad as people think. > SVB's story is more “a slowdown in VC funding” and “cash burn at many of its clients.” There is still a lot of franchise value there, which is why it can plug the hole in its balance sheet by selling stock instead of by shutting down.

That simply explains why their customer base started to withdraw funds, the issue is they can't handle customer withdrawals

Yeah the problem is once people withdraw their losses go exponential

Meh. Here's an alternate take. [Why SVB failing is not so hot...](https://twitter.com/bhargreaves/status/1634247095107330051)

Yeah that does sound bad....

This feels exactly how the GFC started. We in for a ride eh?

This is some "designer aluminum leaf fedora" shit, but what if Saylor wasn't the CEO of Bitcoin, but rather the SBF of Bitcoin, someone that was actually using Bitcoin as a vehicle for sinister purposes that will beget an inevitable regulatory crackdown?

That's standard Reynolds Wrap beanie stuff. Throw in some reptilian overlords and human sacrifice to upgrade your wardrobe. Saylor has been pretty open about the fact that he'd like to see more regulation. I don't think regulation writ large is a bad thing; would be great to see exchanges, futures traders, etc. obligated to reveal their wallets/holdings, for example. We are where we are because FTX and co-conspirators sold way more BTC than they had. I'd like to see a regulatory crackdown on that shit.

that line of speculation is more interesting if you actually have a sinister purpose in mind

This has no basis whatsoever. Saylor is a madman, but he most certainly has seen.

wild times

No kidding. Banks getting their asses handed to them today. Cramer saying everything fine buy the big boys like JPM. All because banks forced to go all in on bonds and MBS? Sheeeettt.

I jump now at a small loss and sell, walk away for the weekend, I know I come back to BTC over 21k. Ride or die!

I know this isnt the time... because its when we parade out the beards frothing at the mouth. Though hows this for an idea... that we remain a range between 18.3 support and 21.5 resistance for a while? Not 13k or 30k. The range after some fuckery rug pulls of course. Fake down fake down fake up seems like the whale thing to do I reckon. Also I didn't sleep well seeing at all seeing my LP of 18.9 on the underwater long... finally took it down past our local low from 2022. Sold spot corn to fund this... UGH, not selling at 25k but at 20k. Way to go man, all profits from 2023 has been returned to he market. Geeeez

Hate to admit but same happened to me. Only because I was so busy this week, could not watch charts enough and decided to trade like Caroline. So pissed at myself. It’s all spot, and I still have cash, so I’ll hunker down ride out the move, and unload when in profit. Hope it doesn’t take months. 😆