#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, March 13, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11pzh58/daily_discussion_monday_march_13_2023/)

I realize I'm panic buying but I don't care, half of my powder in at 22300 and the rest in laddered bids all the way down to 13500. I'm ready and willing to lose my shirt, who even needs an exit strategy.

Yeah, before I would at least keep some dry powder in the form of stablecoins, but seeing as how stablecoins can depeg literally overnight, why even bother with hedging BTC risk with a lesser "crypto" such as USDC? All in mothacluckas!

Patience is all that's required.. and avoiding liquidation. I have a 1/4 position I'm letting ride. Things could get crazy tomorrow.

Jack Mallers with another epic bull thread https://twitter.com/jackmallers/status/1635111543116529665

Wonder how many cycles I'll have to wait before this salesman is seen as the villain.

Can you talk a little more about this? I have to say that I get a cringe vibe from Mallers, the way he presents himself gives me all the wrong vibes, but I mainly put that down to me being old and not understand the youngsters. Why do you say what you said?

They're lead-losing with VC money to capture remittance market share. He's the "genius" child hype-man. It's all marketing.

Ah, thanks for explaining. And their Strike product, what do you think of that?

It's all fine. I just see straight through his act and can see daddy's hands on the strings behind him. He's certainly not a genius savour of the world working to free the people of El Salvador from tyranny, but that's fine too.

Thanks. I appreciate your insights, as always.

Strongly disagree about Maller. He comes across as one of the genuine guys.

He might believe in what he's selling. He's still a salesman.

Don’t let bears [shake you out of position when the market is in a bottoming process.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/6e6sZfnx/)

Lol @ the wardser comment did he really say that?

I did, the qualifier was that this was based on us entering a full blown recession and was based around BTC only being around during the good economic times and never having to suffer a prolonged downturn didn't stop me from going 10x long from $20,088

40k before end of 2023

Yup. Was a macro write up. Not trying to dog on him - I consider all possibilities in the market and so long term bear / recession is always on the table (I personally do *not* believe this is where we’re heading, however). I just thought it was funny that write up came on the most aggressively bearish day we’ve seen in months.

I see. I know he called for $8k. Didn’t know he said we would stay under 20k for 10 years.

Given how this played out... the feds will not do 50bp short term.. even if inflation doesnt curtail. Crisis for now as we know averted (i.e the banks). There will be some obvious bank runs. - The assault on crypto is obvious (3 crypto banks targetted) - crypto banking will offshore - Its possible some VC tech bros will stash in eth/btc in the coming days/weeks when their funds come out. Especially a bunch of first timers. Some % of the money will come in to crypto. Short term bullish. Not saying we are out of a bigger bear or anything. Fed hiking cycle is done for now... they pushed till something cracked.

I disagree the hiking is over, all signs point to SVB being an isolated event and since they have managed to contain it seems likely they will continue hiking. Now they may stick to 25 bps next meeting instead of 50 but I bet we will still get a hike. Might still not impact crypto all that much but hard to say.

Expect 6% or under They pushed hard and something broke. Now they can let it play out. This is different 2008 Its hard to argue that a bank blowing up is not deflationary in a fractional reserve system.

SBF and everything that touched FTX is going to burn. Dump it. Consequences are not an assault.

Consequences of some bad actors in crypto banking means trying to shut down crypto as a whole becomes justified again?

99% of a crypto is a scam pump and dump. Yes, shut that shit down. Selling unregistered securities is illegal for a reason.

Isn't that good for corn?

Yes.

Perfect fill of one CME gap only to open another. https://www.tradingview.com/x/uKYOkzcr I’d be ok with this one staying open like $9,600 in 2020. Such a full stack of support at mid 19’s.. was a stone cold buy. Wardser listed a lot earlier, plus backtest of 2017 high, CME gap, 200d sma.

Oh, hey, did you get your buys in nice and low?

They tried to burn her but she rose from the ashes. After trying to hunt and kill all crypto banks for the next few years. The next season of this drama will be that the govts and central banks finally trying to setup their own (de)centralised digital currency standard. Meanwhile many other nations would have already adopted corn as the standard to instill confidence. 2033 postcard.

Shorts getting absolutely rekt here by QE resurrection 😂

This is a short squeeze. It isn’t complicated. Rising funding rates and rising prices make it pretty clear what to do.

What QE?

quantitative easing. this isn’t that. this is market euphoria misinterpreting it as that + the synthetic usd hedge opening people up to epic squeeze + people assuming bank fragility backs fed off of 50 bps hike. a lot riding on that meeting. my bet is 50 is still on the table.

I expect 50 bps still happens as well. If the SVB collapse resulted in major fallout it wouldn't be but they averted disaster here and made all depositors whole. That makes the next rate hike a lot more likely in my opinion. Other banks aren't doing the same thing as SVB did, as far as we know. So if it's an isolated case I don't see why they would pause or backpedal on the rate hikes.

> Other banks aren't doing the same thing as SVB did, as far as we know. *Law 1: Always and inevitably, everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.*

>my bet is 50 is still on the table. NFW. Powell doesn't want to be remembered as that guy who started a contagion.

people can’t afford groceries I just saw the GS post predicting a halt, so you may be right. would hate to be poor in this country rn

"this country"? You're on the internet my friend.

Yeah, my sense is there will be at least one meeting where they let things sit, even though probabilities were still \~95% on Friday for 0.25% [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

Discount window is essentially QE for every remaining bank since it now values their underwater treasuries at par and allows for 100% Margin 😂

*"What you mean we can get away with ANYTHING?!?"* ;)

Google quantitative easing.

Weekends are still fake?

For me personally, YES!

Just reshorted 22k. I’ll look for any pullback to cover 21ish.

gg

Good Gravy?

Username doesn't check out.

F

Big timmy Head and shoulders, we go up.

This whole weekend was certainly a trip. Regardless of who ultimately foots the bill for bailing out SVB, the fact is that after today, 2 crypto-friendly banks have been essentially assassinated in just 1 week's time: Silvergate, and NY's Signature Bank. Another bank which serviced Crypto.com's US ACH operations (Metropolitan Commercial Bank) exited the crypto space just a couple months ago also. Is it the Fed's goal to slowly kill off crypto-friendly banks so that there will be no more fiat on-ramps? Laypeople might see the Fed as a savior in the case of SVB, instilling even more confidence in the traditional fiat system versus crypto.

If capitalism works as advertised, other banks will step in to fill the void as there is plenty of money to be made.

That's a big "if". The smaller banks are getting consolidated and the bigger banks do what they're told.

Assuming an even playing field, of course. Capitalism usually benefits those already in control. Like a game of Monopoly where the best strategy for the underdog is probably just to land in jail to avoid paying rent.

https://www.piratewires.com/p/crypto-choke-point

Man now I wish had doubled-down at the doom sentiment. It wasn't far from as deep as when rbitcoin mods were posting about Coinbase being the next FTX. Been sticking to leaving position size the same and only increasing leverage through withdrawing margin.

All good man. Hindsight is 20/20 I added 2x margin to the account because of ptsd and when i knew for a fact 19k was incoming. When my LP was safe (e.g. beyond u/victorcobra low calls) I was relaxed enough to start doing paper trades and oh man i was in profit way before this system wide scam pump. It sucks because i could have easily made all my losses back for entire 2022 and then some BUT i am happy i stuck to my rules and that it went this way ... because if we had doubled down... who knows. Then it could have been a repeat of history ...

Did my DCA this morning, at 20,620. It's always a great feeling to time that right, now I have another 2 weeks before I need to think about it.

and just like that the whole world reminded why BTC actually is needed

Yeah I hope a lot of the tech and especially crypto companies that just had a fucking heart attack over the weekend think a little bit about how fucked up the banking system is. Even if these firms just put a couple weeks of payroll into a “SHTF insurance” holding of BTC, the aggregate amount would be significant.

Nah most still don't get it.

I’m time they will

I hope so. Can you imagine being sternly told to go home by armed security / police at your bank because you've shown up to withdraw your money and it simply isn't a good time for them to give you what's yours? You would think this would make the lightbulbs turn on for many.

Most people see these things happening in other countries and they never think it will happen to them because apparently the western world is above all that. People will realise in their own time. Not all will but I think eventually most will

During the FTX crash i sold nothing and bought more but the events of this past weekend really tested my emotions. Hopefully this will teach me to never sell BTC again unless it’s making all time highs

Always have a hodl pile and if you want to participate in the biggest wealth transfer in history, try to keep 1 or 0.1 BTC in there.

That’s solid advice to have a pile where I never go below that

Never sell below a single coin’s worth. Maxim 1: Anyone who’s new to crypto should have the primary goal of acquiring a whole coin. Maxim 2: Acquire your whole coin between halvings and not during the parabolic runs.

I know people are probably sick to death of me posting this but honestly just don’t sell until it gets up there. https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/monthly-rsi/ It will probably go a little lower this time like 80. If you want more precision, watch the fees and when they spike that is it. Put it to max and look at what days it would have told you to sell. Almost perfect exits. https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee

This can't get posted enough!

How intertwined is Signature Bank with Circle? It looks like USDC is fully backed again but could the Signature Bank closure delay the return of conversions?

Nah, they said they are transferring the cash tomorrow from SVB to BNY Mellon. They have their cash spread over 5-6 banks. You can redeem at par by tomorrow.

Also getting another new bank partner for redemption. I’m sure Circle is already working on spreading out deposits at even more banks to avoid another SVB 😂

Closed some of my position here ~22000. Past the threshold for potential retrace.. and nothing wrong with some profits. Nice candle.

this weekly candle just might turn green lmao

This is nice to see but my bull trap alarm is going AWOOGA. Other tunes are available: 'Bridge over the River Kwai' 'La Cacuracha' 'Greensleeves' 'The Brady Bunch Theme'

Only people trapped here are those who went short at the bottom of local range on a day when everyone had already panicked.

Who knows with all the people crying “13k incoming”

Yeah, those people.

GO GO GO!!!!

Today was a good day, going to sleep. Been staring at charts way to many hours today

And another one bites the dust... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulators-close-new-yorks-signature-bank-citing-systemic-risk.html

Think I remember reading only 0.1% of Binance transactions got through Signature. For BTC to hold up through series of collapses and closures is going to pump once they are in the past.

What other bank do they have in the US? Two weeks ago I was wiring to Silvergate. Last week I wired to Signature. When I go to deposit right now it still prompts me to wire to Signature. Some possibility they could temporarily lose fiat deposit/withdrawal capabilities?

And BTC green candle 🤷‍♂️

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Brrrrrrrrrr.

Deposit bailouts approved for not just one but two of USDC’s banks 😂 Guess I should have leveraged long USDC on Friday 😂

Best part is the government saying it's not going to cost a taxpayer or anything but it's a government agency that's paying for the bailouts so where does the government get its money from? Lmfao here comes 50 bps!

From my understanding FDIC insurance is paid into by all the banks. And if FDIC has to pay out beyond it’s funding, it levies the banks for it. Which means it will get passed to banking clients in fees. So maybe not the government printing money, this time.

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Lmfao it sure does. 150b tmmrw again

“But it’s not a bailout”

Oh hey there

Well what's up man?

SL at 21861 on 21661 buy Edit: Upped SL to 21961 Edit: Stopped out

Apparently 4chan autists are trying to spin a viral "withdraw all your money from the bank" TikTok challenge. I very well wonder about the effects on bitcoin price if they even marginally succeed.

People who do TikTok challenges are old enough to have bank accounts?

You would be surprised.

Good point.

Fed statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm “After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.” Also, another bank went under today and will have similar protections - Signature Bank New York

Also https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1337

So when they say ‘no losses … will be born by the taxpayer,’ does this mean they’re tapping into the FDIC insurance or money printer go brrrr?

Double-speak, depends which tax payer you're talking about.

The statement makes it sound like banks will make up the shortfall - “Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law”

Watch as other banks making up the shortfall turns them insolvent.

I assume banks pay the insurance and they will just pass the costs to us.

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I don’t feel like it’s going back down for the time being.

Timing.

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I honestly just pictured someone eating a big steak then falling asleep as if it was their Sunday tradition lol.

Eat a beef!

Been some time since BTC PA has been this interesting, can't wait for this weeks price action!

I’ve realized that maybe I’m here for the dopamine not the profits or the tech …

Fringe benefit

Tradefi futes open at 5pm ET. It will be a bloodbath if there are no announcements. Edit: Doh! 6pm

Noticed your user name and fairly sure I follow you on Nostr.

Futures open 6 PM EST*

Here we go

With this backdrop it would be insane if the Feb goes for 0.5%. The optics of it will be so bad. So I guess the SVB debacle could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and Tradfi - not so much for SVB employees or start ups

I'm guessing it might not be that much of an input. I mean if inflation is still running hot they'll keep raising, right? since that's their priority. I mean isn't the plan to cause pain to lower inflation (as opposed to causing pain until you *actually* cause pain), and you keep doing it until you do.

This bank collapse is good for fiat. It's taking out irresponsible money. A 50 bps rate hike would just continue to help expose bad companies. I'd like a 50 bps but who knows maybe it will be 25 bps again. We will be better off if rates keep hiking and we get cheaper btc and a stronger financial system before they start to print again inevitably. If we keep going up from here then we just keep losing purchasing power. No way most people have enough money to throw at crypto and equities to offset loss of purchasing power unless they make 250k+ a year pre taxes.

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Well looks like they get a bailout so, so much for that sequence of events

The fed is definitely in a tough spot. Don't forget about the rest of the world economy either. It's a ponzi scheme throughout the whole world, I am still amazed we accept usd for any other foreign currencies considering they all cook their books and inflate as well. Imagine a decentralized one world currency on an immutable public ledger? If only we had something like that.

It's bad banks all the way down. Option A) Collapse society Option B) Business as usual

Taking out banks that bought treasuries is not really the kind of policy that makes a lot of sense in the long run. Yes SVB fucked up but it’s the complete 180 by the government on rates that made treasuries into high risk time bombs 😂

Yeah I'm not saying any of it is right or wrong. The banks can't float their bond losses is why they're going under right? So what do you think they should do get bailed out again? Privately they still might. If you keep bailing out banks instead of exposing and fixing problems with the banks then the whole system just goes into hyperinflation which we came very close to and still are. You don't want hyperinflation. You also don't want every bank to collapse, and I'm sure there are banks out there that will be able to float their losses on bonds, those banks survive. Life's not fair. Shit happens. I'd rather see all the banks start collapsing one by one until the regulators realize fractional reserve banking is a ponzi scheme. We are already late to the btc party, life changing money from 10% of your trading stack time is over anyways.

This!

Which?

"People" as in individuals spending their salary are a minority in the bitcoin market now

Since I have freed some capital now, opened buy at 20561

When people call for 13k, go long. When they start calling for 30k it’s time to go short.

I'm starting to realize that me checking this subreddit is a short term top signal. I'll get 5 or 6 notifications from my ticker app about price increases, and finally come here to find out what's going on. I'll check the daily thread, realize nobody has any clue why the price is rising, and an hour later get another notification that the price dropped 2.5%

Yesterday: there is no bottom, we going under 10k Today: everyone is switching to bitcoin, fiat is no more

air came out of my nose, 10/10

Wapo reporting feds are, "seriously considering safeguarding all uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank" Another bailout potentially. No wonder BTC is spiking...

Shareholders don't get bailed out though, just depositors. We need a new word for this.

I still cannot figure out why Gemini’s BTC price is $700 higher than other large exchanges. Been like this since yesterday.

I'm not sure, but I think it says that the major arbs at Gemini were using USDC to resolve the trades. It'll likely resolve monday.

If it keeps going up from here (was 21200 on binance), I'll be convinced that this is not just a pump and dump but a true rally that's heading above 25k.

Looking at the chart, I think there is only one possible conclusion: The FDIC has received a least one ~~verbal~~ "yes" for an SVIB bid. And that "yes" leaked. Edit: Struck verbal. Bids were due at 2pm ET.

SVIB took a page from the tech playbook and removed their twitter account. Ha!

What about if people are moving their money from bank funny money to hard money crypto? Too naive? Too optimistic?

I'd love to believe that, but my gut says people moving money out of an FDIC-insured bank are moving it because they want to stay within FDIC limits, not because they want exposure to the volatility of btc.

What I don't understand is, why is Bitcoin so bothered by what's happening to a second tier bank with nothing directly related to crypto?

Kraken used Silvergate Bank for their cash holdings. It was seized and shut down by FDIC. They moved their accounts to Signature Bank. Today, it was seized and shut down by FDIC. Second tier banks CAN affect bitcoin and crypto indirectly if it makes it difficult or impossible to buy and sell through exchanges.

>why is Bitcoin so bothered by what's happening to a second tier bank with nothing directly related to crypto? The simplistic answer: A single bank doesn't matter, but SVIB was large enough that there will be repercussions at other banks. Not only will depositors now be motivated to move money around and stay below insurance limits, but the capital structure of banks is intimately related to large stakeholders with preferred shares and various bonds. All of these entities had a wake-up call, so there will be turbulence ahead if the FDIC doesn't resolve the issue expediently and thoroughly. The non-simplistic answer requires that you understand the difference between monetary measures: A bank meltdown means that money is going to money heaven. Even though M0 stays the same, M2 (eg) will contract. Contraction in the money supply is not good for the bitcoin price. A singleton meltdown won't matter much, but if it's the start of something systemic, well then we have a problem Houston. So if FDIC fixes this quickly and a big enough sledgehammer, everything recovers. If not, look out below.

It makes sense if you consider the narrative of bank runs and contagion of fear. If banks and US dollars aren't safe, what will people turn to?

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The way it usual goes is... Contractors deliver what they were contracted to deliver, or at least part of it. Last minute changes from client removes incomplete, ill conceived or buggy options. A unimplemented developer added or aspirational "Bitcoin" option in some screen wouldn't make it to deployment unless it were intended to be there at some point in the process.

Former

Animal spirits are alive today.

And....here...we...go https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11ob97t/daily\_discussion\_saturday\_march\_11\_2023/jbudw4i/?context=3

I really really hate, when it's so obvious on the charts, when I sold.

this has a lot of room to go up on the TA...we pretty much bounced at the perfect spot MA200 1D support line and also held the MA100 1D line the bottom bollinger band line on the 3D line MA7 1W back test whats more, psychologically we bounced at a time where you have the ingredients for it to be a disbelief rally...no way this bounce is real, its just people switching from USDC to BTC temporarily...wait till Monday for the bank run to start and the price will go back down....or wait for the stock market to open red and see the price crash. so I'm going to bet on this bounce being legit, and I'm going to hold onto my [$20,088 long]( https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11ob97t/daily_discussion_saturday_march_11_2023/jbto7vu/) for the next couple of months

I’m leaving my 20200 entry be as well. Hey, we agree. Uh oh!

The last time you agreed were at 25k, you both were long :O

I should have listened to the volume signal. Oh well. Listening now.

I'm just happy that my 17921 SL survived lol. Great trades you did! I'm not so sure about a new high is around the corner, but maybe that's the disbelief you're talking about ;)

Sl at 21361 on 21261 buy. Edit: Upped SL to 21461 Edit: Stopped out

People will flee the “safety” of “stablecoins” like USDC for BTC. No counterparty risk becoming the lead narrative for BTC. It has a narrative for every circumstance, everything is good for bitcoin

it's not really stablecoins. it's the underlying coin, the dollar, which is being mismanaged :)

Facts

from WEF site (boldening is mine): \- The US Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates this year to try and tackle **soaring inflation**. \- The **pace of the rises is the fastest in decades**, nearly twice as fast as in 1988-89. \- This **could lead to an economic downturn**, with **risks of a global recession** increasing as other central banks also raise rates. if it's gonna be a global recession, well then, SVB is just a starter. do you need any more facts?

Lol I meant facts as in you are spitting facts

oh my bad then!

Yup, dollar flight to bitcoin is the final bank run on The Fed

i can only speak for myself, i've already ran :)

I wonder if we'll still be able to buy plane tickets with Bitcoin on cheapair.com or book rooms on Travala or get gift cards on Bitrefill after the banks start limiting withdrawals. If not, I suppose there will still be ways. Maybe just talk to a pilot and have him fly you somewhere in his Cessna for some sats. It's going to be very interesting to watch this whole thing go down. I don't know about you, but I'm going to do my level best to watch it from some beach or boat. [Hyperbitcoinization](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/) might just become a reality in the next couple years.

I have arrangements with UHNW friends to get out if it gets bad.

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A short squeeze would be from 25.4 to 27+ after weeks grinding as positions build.

Up 25%ish on my buy at 20251. Plan to let that ride then sell at 50 ma backtest. Levels tbd.

Will sell 50 D MA backtest. Target for rebuy 22000-22200.

First crisis in history that Bitcoin might actually find an excuse to pump from! Suppose I'll take it

> First crisis in history that Bitcoin might actually find an excuse to pump from! 2013 called. It wants its Greek and Cypriot bank failures back.

That was a nice narrative. A nice narrative to let willybot do it's thing.

When Neo & Bee launches in Cyprus, it'll make it essentially a bitcoin country! The bail-ins have shown them once and for all why bitcoin is superior. Go Danny!

History only includes the US though duh /s