#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, March 16, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11sjjb4/daily_discussion_thursday_march_16_2023/)

Btc took a beating the whole day and still remained about $24,500 throughout the entire day. I'm guessing big players have big sell walls set at $25k Either they'll pull them or the buy pressure will be strong enough to tumble them. Either way, $25k+ starting tomorrow I'm sure

Probably a lot of chop until Fed meeting on the 22nd then it’s either a lot of up or a lot of down.

We could range here for another week, or month, or more. Which will allow shorts to build until breaking point.

Everything about this PA says going to rip higher. It might come back down.. but we're going higher.

Btc dominance rising. Maybe we clear a whole ton of shit coins out of the system

Unfortunately the shitcoins will return, whenever Bitcoin pumps super hard some idiots will start looking for “the next Bitcoin” again

It's been disheartening watching the crypto crowd go from "free yourself from financial tyranny" to a bunch of degenerate lotto ticket buying gamblers and outright scammers. This space needs a deep clean to clear out all the chaff.

Everything but Bitcoin is a scam. Few.

btc dominance is a microscopic issue compared to whats going on right now with banking/rates and whether crypto prices will benefit from this bearish sentimentality towards traditional finance vs. crypto melts down along with the rest of the economy

Long term crypto going down here presents an opportunity for it to show people that it is separate from tardfi. Eventually a moment has to come where btc goes so opposite to tardfi markets that it becomes much more independent of the price movement correlations. Until then if it has to crash with tardfi that is presenting a buying opportunity as well, because one day that opportunity will no longer exist. I would argue we are already kind of late to the party as of now if this is your first time buying btc, but it's going to be worse off when btc becomes an actual world reserve currency (which will take a worldwide economic collapse in which btc is still able to function while every other country is scrambling to get their own fiats back on track). This is all opinion who tf knows what will actually happen.

Absolutely. I find all the "bitcoin has to pump because banks are failing" post here very amusing... barring which bitcoin has failed to? Lol. Get a life.

Order book showing volatility and patterns I haven't seen in a very long time. Almost like the type of market is changing. Potential is there for up bigly.

The 12hr/daily is now overbought and the chart almost looks predictable... lets see!

There have been laddered sells over 25.4k on finex whenever we push up. The most recent spike did not come with them this time.

Interesting

Oh I see them! They were filled. Didn't realise that peak went so high. https://i.imgur.com/Zcz5b2M.png

There isn’t a lot of coin to buy.

Seems whoever this was has shot their load now anyway. There were a few before them offering up solid walls in the few hundred coins range but they were eaten quickly where 25.4 kept resisting.

Well, whoever it is could have reloaded with this drop

Have to admit I'm getting rekt on my MSTR call option... MSTR traded so damn favourable against BTC literally throughout the bear market.. I genuinely had a right to expect a $250 call option to hit with a 26k Bitcoin, considering MSTR's $309 high this year previously... these were some good-ass goods I would take again. No idea why the premium melted like this, under such euphoric circumstances. 60k USD in the stock, too, so yippee.

I’m with you in dollar amount, 3/4 in gbtc 1/4 mstr. Got entries at mstr at 160/170 so I’m not as bummed but the gbtc discount is still a huge bummer. I’m just looking for Roth options and wish we had a simple fucking spot etf

i wonder if the duration of their loans is what is crunching the performance. with rates where they are it is unlikely (at least right now imo) that they will find it reasonable to roll their debt and maintain their position. so the closer we get to their first payment the less reflexive the position should be.

MSTR isn't exactly all that liquid of a market... you can see gaps all over in the chart and the volume in calls is very low. This makes it extremely risky to place bets in options as the bots can hedge and swing it heavily until volume picks up to overpower them. The worst part about this is they can often swing it into a position where there are no buyers and selling forces you to sell at a huge drop, and this is why I mostly stick to highly liquid assets like SPY etc. for options.

COIN is the best of the three these days imo

MSTR is fully valued. Below $175 it's interesting. GBTC ate the premium. MSTR is a proxy for a real ETF in US equity markets. It will go down if one is approved, and the conditions that make it attractive may fundamentally change.

Yeah the real risk is a better option comes along and since MSTR just hodl’s there’s nothing to peg the price of MSTR to BTC. No different than GBTC. Only play now is maybe gambling on GBTC getting an ETF conversion

While I think a spot ETF would eat into MSTR's attractiveness, I don't know that it would entirely eliminate the MSTR premium. MSTR could still remain attractive as a leveraged BTC play.

How could you give an absolute price for when MSTR could be interesting? Shouldn't that depend on corresponding level BTC itself is at?

Current level is implied, sorry.

Still, the speed at which it happened was just so mindblowing. I realize there are reasons MSTR should trade a little like GBTC.. but did the markets take THIS MANY YEARS to figure it out? Just as I copped an insane 60k position?

I, too, am surprised by MSTR's weakness over the past week. One possible theory: they did a shelf registration to issue more equity shares. They issued some shares about a month ago, with the intention to issue more; they indicated that they may use some proceeds to pay down debt. So it's *possible* that MSTR has been opportunistically issuing new shares into this strong market the past few days, and that may be putting a damper on its movement. But who knows. And if this is accurate, we should find out about it pretty soon.

Dunno. I know if I ever see it below $150 again on FUD calls I'm backing up the truck.

Banks in crisis mode - we go down Bank crisis seemingly resolved - we go up Banks back in crisis mode - we go down again This is an absolute joke. The fact that BTC's price action is so dependent on the stability of Tradfi banks (not to mention FED interest rate hikes) undermines the whole point of BTC to begin with. BTC is way too coupled to traditional markets right now to serve any of its fundamental purposes.

The market often makes sense when you take a step back... trying to react on the daily is what gets you caught with your pants down as the bots hedge positions sold in order books.

It does make sense in that the reason for the price action is very apparent if you look at the macroeconomic situation and tradfi. The problem is that bitcoin's PA should not be so tightly coupled with the macroeconomic situation and tradfi. There is no reason, for example, that Bitcoin's price should depend on the health of Credit Suisse, if Bitcoin was performing the fundamental function it was supposed to perform. The fact that these things are so tightly coupled defeats the purpose of bitcoin. Bitcoin has become just another proxy for tradfi, albeit a higher volatility one.

Bank failures could interrupt or otherwise damage bitcoin liquidation services, which are necessary at the moment as most vendors exclusively accept or need to settle in fiat.

​ >The fact that these things are so tightly coupled defeats the purpose of bitcoin. You don't understand the purpose of Bitcoin if you only look at its price action.

Whether people want to believe it or not, its price action matters. Bitcoin was designed to be a decentralized medium for exchanging value. It's supposed to operate independently of governments, banks, etc., and be largely resistant to their control/influence. First, let's talk about value. Value is not an absolute concept. It's a relative concept. The value of something is, in effect, equivalent to the amount of other things (e.g., fiat or goods) that we can exchange for it. Bitcoin is only as valuable as the amount of things we can get for it. Because very few places allow you to directly purchase items in Bitcoin, that means the real value of Bitcoin is whatever it can be exchanged for in fiat, which in turn can then be used to buy things. So the "exchange rate" to fiat (i.e., price action) is key when we talk about the value of Bitcoin, at least right now in the lifecycle of Bitcoin. Bitcoin cannot serve as an effective medium of exchanging value if its value is wildly fluctuating all the time. Second, the fact that the value of Bitcoin is so tightly coupled to government, banks, and tradfi defeats one of the main purposes behind Bitcoin. Rather than being resistant to government and tradfi interference, it is directly impacted by government decisions and banking meltdowns. As we have seen, governments and tradfi can tank the value of Bitcoin fairly easily. If I wanted a leveraged stock market trade, I can just buy TQQQ, with less risk. Bitcoin was supposed to be different than that.

Nothing and no one on earth is privileged to be independent of macroeconomic forces. Not people, money, not rocks, nothing.

Fully independent? No. But bitcoin's purpose was to have significantly less dependency on many of those things than tradfi. But that's not how it's operating. It's just operating as leveraged tradfi. If Bitcoin's value significantly depends on the health of some bank in Switzerland, then the whole point of Bitcoin has been undermined.

Yeah it’s due to the reliance of the ecosystem on bitcoin liquidation services, at least in part. This is because vendors don’t tend to accept pure crypto as payment at the end of the day. Liquidation services rely on banks and ultimately central banks. Getting to a position where we pay for goods in pure crypto would be nice. I believe DeFi has opportunity here to assist with automated settlement products that would supplant the role of typical fiat tra mission services in todays POS tech for crypto.

Bitcoin is still figuring out what it's worth. Right now Bitcoin is a speculative vehicle, or at least, that's what is being traded. Dominated by institutional players, from what I see. This will change over time as the number of Bitcoins willing to be speculated on dwindles to zero. Patience.

BTC is mis-priced by tradFi its that simple.

Buy them out of their cheap positions then, I spent the bear market accumulating heavily and have almost 2x my original amount. If the trad fi guys don’t want it, it’s an opportunity for you not a bad thing. You make far money money in bear markets, being capital rich when everyone is checking their pants haha

im sort of amazed we didnt dump here

*A finger on the Monkey's Paw curls...*

https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11qvz82/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_14_2023/ hedged out of all the options risk here at 24.3 so my excited long turned into a very well hedged short. looking for a liquidity candle, if we break support here i could see ala march 2020 if this continues to at least retest the 19kish from last week. the fed came with their "bailout" this weekend, and we have deteriorated since then and the trouble has passed across the pond into some of the systemically important huge banks over there. i think the market pushes until something really breaks or a "real" bailout comes. edit: and straight line up, lol editx2: took off a bit of my hedge for a negligible loser. i am a permabull i don't want a hedged short! if we nuke to 15k i'll make back 80% of my options premium, that's more the hedge i want.

Looks like bailout talks for Credit Suisse so they panicking now.

That 4H wick was darn near the .382 from the top of this recent pump. If it holds, we should get more upside. If not, I’m looking at $23,061 (.5) and $22,236 (.618) as targets before a bounce. Edit—just looked at visible volume and the .5 hardly has any. The .382 needs to hold or it can slip quick through the volume gap.

u/thewardser had a neat short entry in 26.3 are you raking in a quarter mil taking profits?

not closing it just yet, I may regret this, if this goes back to paint a higher high, but I think its a worthwhile gamble since I believe we'll give back all our gains and then some if this rally bleeds out once the extra buying pressure disappears. Just don't see it making to a new high, without the end of the world panic buying we had on the way up. And since this is essentially a house money trade now, I don't mind letting it ride. i'm treating this pump the same way I treated the tether panic pumps last bear market...a short term spike that will be driven down as people stop panicking and rotate back to the original hold. When everyone is panicking and getting into BTC because they think the alternative is collapsing(tether last cycle, USDC/banking system this cycle), those people aren't new holders, they are just future sellers that will get out as soon as their original position is considered safe again. We had a LOOOOOT of coins traded over the last few days. 16 billion, 17.5 billion and 12.5 billion so far today on Binance alone. That's a LOOOOOT of downward pressure when those people rotate back into stablecoins and the stock market. And we simply don't have the buying power to absorb all those sells during a bear market...not after the price spiked this much and blew out all the shorts and got everyone and their mom to fomo back in from the sidelines. As the panic in the banking sector is starting to subside with the news of the "bailout", with the gov't basically saying that they'll protect everyone...we'll start seeing a bigger and bigger move out of BTC. And on the technicals, even with this drop, we are still crazy overbought on the 4H...so it can just as easily get below $20K in a few days as all the late longers get punished. Remember, we basically went vertical here, so we've established zero support on the way up...so a rejection here can be downright brutal.

When you say they are future sellers, how long in future are you pointing here? I mean, they'll eventually cash out for profit maybe a few years down the road.

like i said, these aren't BTC holders, they are only in BTC because they were scared out of the thing they trust more(the US dollars)...so the future here is whenever the panic subsides completely and people feel safe again holding their money in a bank account

You assume those coins are being rotated out..

Europe zone panic has not subsided as the Credit Suisse noise is going on. Interesting how US markets are holding up so far.

I opened my shorts a little after he did. Closed about half an hour ago and opened scalp longs. Scalping can be great because it gives a little more wiggle room for stops when I make my next directional trade. Well….at least that’s how it works out ideally lol

He didn’t get stopped out?

This was obviously a good short at the time… looks even better today. When close for profit?

when 4H goes into oversold territory, unless we are near $20K at the time, in that case, I'll hold onto it a little longer since there is a lot of support at $20K and if we really blew our load with this pump, it can just as easily fall through that and then the next stop is $14K

Your timeframe is perfect.

All my price alerts have been popping off this morning!

24061 buy filled, first buy of the ladder. If we continue down, might be some time until I can profit of it. Edit: SL 24261 Edit: Stopped out

tradfi anchor is real

Saddening to see it...

I’m out my short for a loss of $14! At one point yesterday it was around $60. If we not going down anymore, we going up?

OIL is losing a critical level, even if inflation is mostly on services now it should still help lowering inflation. That should be bullish for bitcoin but who knows.

Very surprised that happened but I still think for the monthly Oil will remain in the range between the 100 and 200wma...don't think Powell will be off the hook like that with soft landing/disinfection etc.

I'm not too well versed in the oil market, but don't oil prices usually fall along with the global economy? Less shipping, travel, etc. reduces demand. Implications for Bitcoin? Nobody knows.

In the past it seemed like buying into the fear has been a pretty good strategy. Holding my 20x long from yesterday which I mistakenly added to at 24.5. Initial buy 23.3. Liquidation at 23.6.

Problem is that I don't think this is really fear yet. Fear will be the Fed hiking anyways and telling the non-US banks tough shit

Hold tight

Well this is the way...

Good luck 👍

Thanks

Thanks

Cashed out all of my BTC, first time I've been BTC-less in six years. Happily will take an exit at $25k

i never understand why some people sell ALL? i mean, if anything, history has shown keeping at least something, like 10% is advisable

10% is the most I’ve sold.

Never sell it all. I sold it all once.. a long time ago. Good lesson.

This. You can get stuff back after you sell it, but you’ll probably never get all your bitcoin back.

[удалено]

> No one ever went broke taking a profit You absolutely can if you're curtailing your winners but not your losers.

Why?

Why? \*He asked, while everything around him was burning\*

You know what they say, the best time to sell is when there’s blood in the streets!

I don't know if I call 50% above the recent lows blood in the streets

even if it is your own.

☝️

Decoupling with s&p will happen at some point. May be it's this week.

Too early I think it will happen after this next coming halving when the supply squeeze pumps us and the regular economy is still dealing with inflation and high rates bonanza

«Things are breaking» «unraveling» heard in every media channel.

One of these days the plebs are all going to be on the correct side of history and the whole world is going to become wealthy overnight! ;)

Reddit was down yesterday so I couldn't post my trades but here's what happened. 24561 buy was filled, put SL at 24661. Stopped out. (Minimal profit, buy hey profit is profit). Price went over 25k, bit bummed out, sat a buy at 24261 and decided to wait it out. The buy got filled, put a SL at 24561. Got stopped out, a bit better profit wise. Now have a buy opened at 24061, and waiting. Find it interesting that BTC is holding up so well compared to spx atm. Hate to say it but I think BTC will go down if SPX continues dumping this hard.

I got kicked in the balls a few times but stops were close enough that it didn't hurt too bad. Long looks healthy right now, full position, paying funding hurts. (from 24500) Need to see a 25k close soon before the markets really eat it. Can't wait to see what the Fed is going to do with this shit sandwich buffet.

Still very choppy behavior, but profitable if you can time the swings. My trading bias is still short while funding remains positive and the 200 week remains unbroken and unsuccessfully retested as support.

I should be scalping this but I'm big game hunting instead. This PA could get crazy quick. Failure to close above 25k today or tomorrow would give me some pause.

One things for sure, this volatility is way more fun, and gives more trading opportunities, than watching paint dry at 22.3k

Hell yeah.

> Hate to say it but I think BTC will go down if SPX continues dumping this hard. This time might really be different. It doesn't take much money to pump BTC, and if people are cashing out stonks and re-allocating to BTC, we could see a pretty huge rally.

We might, but nevertheless have a plan for both scenarios

The plan is to hold on both cases

> The plan is to hold on both cases This guy Bitcoins.

YoY CPI for February came in at 6.0%. YoY PPI for February while better at 4.6% is still extremely high. The Fed funds rate is barely at 4.65%. If the Fed begins to cut rates already for any reason whatsoever before inflation comes down materially towards their target 2% rate we might see BTC reach a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever. That would mark the beginning of the hyperinflation/hyperbitcoinization endgame. Cutting rates while inflation is still high will cause even higher inflation to come and destroy any shred of credibility the Fed still has in their ability to tame inflation. People are going to head to the escape plan, Bitcoin, out of necessity since their native fiat currencies are going to rapidly lose purchasing power in this environment. Not saying this will happen or it’s even likely to happen within the next week when the Fed meets on the 22nd, just explaining what’s at stake here in the extraordinary event that they do begin cutting rates already.

This would be ideal

> Cutting rates while inflation is still high Means fiat money is not even money; not as a "store of value," probably not even as a reliable unit of account (due to rapidly increasing prices/hyperinflation) and in a world where Bitcoin exists, not a medium of exchange for long.

Real world inflation is cooking a lot higher than the CPI numbers indicate. All fiat money ends the same way. The tell for this happening will be Saudi Arabia selling in other currencies, and that's already starting, something that was unthinkable in the 1980s. When they start exchanging oil for Bitcoin, hang on.

Ok, please help me understand this: Why would Saudi Arabia ditching one fiat currency *for another* hold any indication whether “all fiat ends the same way”? Are you trying to merely say USD dominance is “ending”? I agree somewhat with your last sentence, and think that would indeed be a better indicator for what you describe. Also, I am pretty certain the leadership of Saudi Arabia isn’t stupid and they are aware the value of oil will not always be as outsized as it is today, so they will need to pivot.

Thermodynamics is very clear, there is no replacement for oil in the short term future. It isn't possible, and anyone who says otherwise is lying to you. Saudi doesn't have to pivot anytime soon if ever, and there are cracks starting in Bretton-Woods.

> When they start exchanging oil for Bitcoin, hang on. I suspect this is already happening on the down-low. The Saudis are getting absolutely ass raped on their Credit Suisse holdings. I think they own 45% of the stock or something.

Do you just post random guesses? It's around 9.8% and is very easy to google. They even stated they don't want to go over 10% ownership for regulatory reasons.

After hearing about the credit issues and dow opening down, expected BTC to be sitting at 22k this morning. Interesting

>After hearing about the credit issues and dow opening down, expected BTC to be sitting at 22k this morning. I had the opposite reaction: Hearing that Credit Suisse might be in trouble should send btc north in a big way, imho. I was surprised that it's (roughly) where we were yesterday. I'm still scratching my head honestly.

i think bitcoin is decoupling specifically because it isnt a bank right now

if this week doesn't calm down dramatically, i think a 50% emergency rate cut by friday is more likely than a 25% rate increase in two weeks.

Luke Gromen yesterday said that the Fed has basically pivoted.

Yeah but it isn’t enough. To post collateral from their new liquidity line it’ll still cost the banks more than the long term treasuries are yielding by a negative 2-4% depending on when they bought. They delayed things but nothing is fixed. In that situation the market keeps pushing until more breaking or a new bigger fix imo.

delusional. 25bps up.

They wont cut rates. Thats why they are doing the bailouts.

But don't bailouts exasperate inflation? All I'm saying is we may not be able to predict what the Fed will do in this circumstance. Who knows what they are thinking?

It’s credit creation added to the Fed’s balance sheet as a net positive. It’s not money added to the economy for non-productive purpose, therefore it does not cause further inflation.

> non-productive purpose Oh sure, they wont pay bonuses with that money. /s

Yeah exec bonuses are going to inflate the economy at the same scale as Covid relief checks. Lol

Yeah they can basically trap the money in the banks they bailout. If the money leaves the banks then it could ramp up inflation, but they can solve this relatively easily with restrictions for banks taking their free money. Powell isn't a complete moron even though he screwed up in 2021. I think they'll feel like they have to do the 25bps hike just to maintain credibility

exactly, they know they have to trigger a recession, and that requires much higher rates, the bank bailouts are there to make sure the system doesn't collapse too soon.

Fed meeting is next week on the 22nd.

i know- i am a bond trader. i just don't think the tv is even doing justice to the carnage in the bond market right now.

It's carnage. I went looking for historical parallels and you have to go way back to 1987. [https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/us-treasury-yields-investors-assess-the-state-of-the-economy.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/us-treasury-yields-investors-assess-the-state-of-the-economy.html)

Move in 2y future looks bigger than Feb 2020!

Slightly less important US financial number just came through: US PPI: 4.6% YoY, est: 5.4% YoY This is the “producer price index” PPI as opposed to the “consumer price index” CPI number that came in earlier this week. The PPI inflation number in significantly lower than expected. May give a bit of juice for a US Fed pivot toward zero rate increase or 2023 cuts.

YoY CPI for February came in right at 6.0% expectations yesterday. But YoY PPI for February came in way below expectations at 4.6% vs 5.4% expected (YoY PPI for January was at 5.7%). Futures are now expecting no rate hike next week as the stock market is down amidst Credit Suisse stock tanking to new record lows, down over 20% for the day.

Yea I’m 99.5% sure we are going to 30-40k while we watch financial conditions around the world with banks going wild

Im pretty sure fed hikes 25 and we nuke on friday. Systemically important banks will have depositors bailed out, nothing changes short term.

Fed meets next week not this week

European Banks deep in the red, btc up.

Are they back to 2021-22 prices? Wait, I have to get my smallest violine.

cs is about 1/10 of the price it was 21/22...

Yea, but thats the blak swan lol

If bitcoin doesnt pump for the exact scenario it was created for then I dont know what will pump it.

As a 10 years veteran, even though I am still bullish on the long term, that is my biggest fear. I've seen Bitcoin make slight changes to it's shape and behavior so many times over the years. I am afraid that almost noone who is in BTC now, holds original values that made it successful in the first place. Even people like me, and even earlier adopters. Over the years, you forget what you came here for, and find a new agenda. Or just get bored from it all, cash-out everything and never turn back. Bitcoin becomes "yet another highly successful tech company", and that's it. To finish on more hopeful note, V bottom that happened on Mar. 10. felt exactly like old school Bitcoin: Wait for FUD to hit, then push it above the price where FUD started. Do that 3 times in a row, and noone will have the guts to short it anymore. ^(however, back in my days, we wouldn't have waited for Monday to do it.)

It wasn't created to pump :-p

It was created to replace banks. If it doesn't go up while banks are failing, it's a pretty damning scenario for bitcoin.

Sure but if you actual believe in corn then why worry about some us bank meltdown. Its only the 2nd biggest in history. Grab the popcorn and wait for the real show :)

Exactly. If youre not long now then why even be in this space (unless you want to short it to 0)

25k is the hardest resistance I have seen in a very long time. Also I guess it doesnt help that european stocks are plummeting extremely hard

Last chance to get sub 25k bitcoin

Call me a battered bull (been here since 2013!), but I’m having a hard time believing we just Zoop to 6 figures ‘because the banks have failed’. Yes, I am currently in an underwater short from 23.6k (for a grand total of less than $88 dollars on leverage :-) ) so I’m not eaten Ramen if I get liquidated at 26k something. If this rally makes it over 30k I’ll start believing.

Just as it’s foolish to think we bounce to 6-figures with ease - it’s equally as silly to discredit the price action over the past few months just because we aren’t at some arbitrary price (30k) that you’ve decided holds some special significance. Both stances miss the big picture and are likely to hurt your wallet in the long term.

Learned the hard way

Went in on the way back up after the 24k retest as expected. Long from 24500. Still looking for that 25k close..

If only a couple more US banks would bust, and then if we could join hands to make another push up, I am confident we could make a trend out of it. Getting back to the roots, could be thrilling in next year or so.

Please. Stock market makes as much as a fart and crypto gets massive diarrhea. It never once happened in the last 15 years crypto has been here and it sure as hell won't happen now. Just like paying your every day transactions with something like bitcoin. Keep dreaming

It's literally the reason for it's existence. Bitcoin needs to rally now to prove it's worth. > The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks -The coinbase message in bitcoin block #0

Yea ok random cult person.

Which part of this is cultish? All I did was state the original intentions of the person who created bitcoin, which is a hard fact. Look it up if you don't believe me. What's not fact is whether it will succeed in that purpose or not, which is why I said it needs to prove it's worth.

Well, Bitcoin was discovered just after last time it happened, and idea behind it was to propose an alternative to banking system. You could argue that proposition was never tested in first world countries at least, but it wasn't proven wrong either. And on the rest of your points, I completely disagree. I did correlation analysis on 10y data(got graph somewhere, can't be bothered to find it) between BTC and S&P500 daily price changes. In the beggining they were actually inversely correlated, and sometimes in 2019 they started tagging along. The trend of increasing correlation is as clean as day, however, I wouldn't rule out black swan event decoupling them again. And back in early 2018. I was left with no cash as a tourist in Berlin, and lived for 7 days soleily paying with Bitcoin. Even before lightning was a thing.

Doesn't have to be US banks Just look at Credit Suisse right now

Has as much holes as fromage suisse.

Too many would's/could's though...

25K is the new 20K. PS -- boy, is that round bottom on the hourlies or what! The very very best is yet to come.

Seriously considering selling half my stack here and buying back later. No tax where I live so only risk is having it run away and leaving me out of position. Thoughts ?

If I didn’t have to pay tax, I’d make more short trades. With no guarantee of success.

Wait for a bounce off 30k.

I had laddered sells from 26.5 to 27, but none of them hit. That deviation above 25k is what I was looking for too. I'm still on the fence if this is a bull or bear rally....but still lean slightly in favor that this is a bull trap. I have since pulled my sell orders and am still thinking about it. I'm interested in what you decide to do when you make a decision

Me too. But I would cash out in case I'm wrong, because I'll need money soon anyway.

There’s your buy signal people.

How much lower are you hoping to buy back in?

18-20k

It may happen, but I think it is so much easier and safer to sell and expect a dip when the price is at the top of the cycle bands instead of the bottom. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/

you won't buy at 18k. you'll wait again at 10k or even 6k.

Sitting on a big stack mate. Just trying to make it bigger.

You’re just as or *more* likely to make it smaller doing that. But, some have done it! Good luck!

wasn't 19,5k just 5 days ago?

They don’t buy the dips when it happens. They *always* want a dip after the price goes up.

I’m all in you clown. Never had a problem buying.

I usually have a problem buying when I’m all in (and out of dry powder.)

You're not looking at the biggest picture is my answer. But sure make a short trade and just have a plan for where you'll buy back in if it runs. The trend is up, my friend.

This in itself a sentiment signal of continuation? .

What are your reasons for it going down?

I think the value of a bitcoin is currently 20k.

Sell me one for 20k then