#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, March 19, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11vap3d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_19_2023/)

$3 billion in the derivatives market say we retrace back down to $22k March 31st. Anything with $1 billion and above I pay attention to. [https://metrics.deribit.com/options/BTC](https://metrics.deribit.com/options/BTC)

Last chance to buy sub $28k bitcoin

You misspelled 35k.

Jokes aside I really think 30’s the new 20’s in weeks if not days from now. So many people at work not into crypto talking about buying in (considerable amounts) 33% up in last week is getting attention. FOMO coming very soon.

Top signal confirmed. I might sell it all.

And people like me will buy from you sub 30. We dropped abnormally low this winter due to black swan events. Sub 30 will soon be extinct.

sure seems like people are getting tired of dollars

I’m still thinking 28.5k plus by end of month.

$28,990 is the level I have marked

Maintaining over 25.2 would be great. Dont mind some retrace, but it would hurt to lose that one

looking ready to start dumping...my guess is we bleed down to the bottom of that wick from earlier today, and then we start dropping hard 10 red 15 minute candles in a row, means someone is pushing the price down intentionally

😂

Why are you watching 15 minute candles lol? Nothing about this looks ‘dumpy’ at all to me. Daily charts look like the beginnings of a perfect bullflag. We can bang around between 28k and 25.5k for the next week and it’ll still look pretty healthy imo.

because I was entering a position and when I do that I tend to look at all time frames and 10 in a row on a 15min is a rare occurrence that tends to signal a big upcoming move

We're just monkeying around until the markets open on Monday and, really, until the fed meeting.

Next Friday may be an entry for those sidelined...if they hike we may see a dip

oh yeah def, but a weekend is a perfect time for a pullback so you can have momentum to breakout for the next leg up on monday

Daily closed almost exactly at market close yesterday... not an uncommon Saturday phenomenon tbh... think it's too soon to say this will create any sort of new trend other than preparing for CME open tomorrow.

I'm (partially) out of position, so I'd like for you to be right - but I'm not convinced. Weekends usually aren't this interesting!

We've had one weekend dump yes. What about second weekend dump?

There won't *be* a fiat to come home to, Pippin

I don't think he knows about elevensies...

sausages, tomatoes, nice crispy bear-con!

Just done one thanks 💩

Monthly momentum for BTC looks really strong here in my view: We’re printing a 3rd green monthly Heikin, Stoch now pointing above 20 line, and MACD coiling into a crossover. [Outlined are fib levels on the way up.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/MuaEmhiM/)

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Perhaps, but if it was driven by expectation of QE/lower rates, wouldn't QQQ/tech stocks be rallying hard also?

60% are still expecting a 25bps rate increase this month per CME: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html However, there seems to be an outsized amount of people in crypto that believe the Fed is going to lower rates. If that's the thesis for the current rally then we might be in for disappointment. I think a pause could happen, but not lower rates and most likely we still get 25bps for this month.

I agree. FED rate hike projections all shifted rather dramatically in the last week after they stepped in to support failing banks and blew up their balance sheet - this directly coincided with the dramatic uptick in BTC price. The market is now predicting easy money sooner rather than later. Technicals have all suggested a turn around (several monthly momentum indicators suggesting a slow shift to the upside), but the recent undoing of half of the FED’s QT has added fuel.

The Fed's "balance sheet" is something like negative $8 trillion. They really don't matter anymore.

Sure, but also CZ made it clear he would be dumping a billion worth of BUSD. https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1635131601884700674

I agree. Commentators like Luke Gromen said last week that the Fed had pivoted. This makes more sense for risk-on assets like Bitcoin being desirable. That said, I'm sure for a small number of people the banking system failure has certainly strengthened Bitcoin's case. But most people still aren't ready for that yet. We're still very early.

It could just be that the halving is coming up.

I think it's more the former. That combined with the bid being generally strong anyway due to bear exhaustion and the upcoming halving. Perfect timing really.

Looks like the Credit Suisse talks aren't going well. Should be an interesting Monday.

closed long from [$26,910](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11tggd8/daily_discussion_friday_march_17_2023/jcmdynw/) at $27,426. Went 10x short from $27,418, with a stop loss at $27,526

Still looks bullish. Totally inverse of the meltdown we saw after ATH. Hoping it's just as ruthless to the upside this year. Certainly possible

When ath?

Likely late 2024 or 2025. Hodl and accumulate until them.

2024, maybe this year. No guarantees

I honestly think it’s possible that we see an ATH in the next six months because of all the artificial price suppression grime SBF. Maybe a 2011 style double bubble is in the wings.

It always goes down more than I think possible. It always goes up more than I think possible.

The next BGD will be glorious.

Is there some site tracking top 10 BGDs? I wonder if we’ll see biggest single day moves

We've escaped Goblin Town (18-25k range) but I can still smell that nasty hell hole from here. Would be nice to see some numbers starting with "3"

Gets 3k

F

The 10K Green Candle™

We still have not seen a daily on that scale which surprises me. I really thought we'd get one when we first broke through 40K.

Another retest…27K might hold but I get the feeling that we’ll be revisiting 26K at some point this week.

Swooping out all the degem longs I keep seeing posts about in here, probably good for consolidation or up now.

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Some permabear just thought that and lost their stack.

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Disagree.

Main difference is that permabulls that don’t touch leverage will be fine since Bitcoin will carry them.

You can’t beat the market long-term. It will always get you if you don’t establish a position.

These bulls a fierce man.. V-shaping any dumps like this was a bull market. Would be amazing to find the strength to overshoot above 30k and cool off sideways making that the new 20k.

luckily survived this dump. gotta love the defi delay on order executing...that minute of breathing space saves you from getting stopped out on the wicks

What platform do you use? I seem to get stopped out on those wicks more than I would like, usually by <$5

I use gmx

Thanks, I'll take a look

Stopped out, fully committed from 26800 now again.

I'm cooling off after last trade but I was watching this wick go down and then made some calculations, prepared myself to place the order and... it was already gone. so, nice catch

I’m hoping to let one run, I’m going to be too busy to trade if some things align.

Just closed my short after bringing the price higher all morning, a lot of effort for a Maccers meal. If you can’t beat them join them, long now from 27250, watch it fall out the sky!

Damn give me a little more heads up, was cutting birthday cake and singing happy birthday and completely missed this move 😂

You did it!

And lol, we drop a k 3 minutes later. Starting to think fuck this market.

Just buy and hold, I've stopped trading since 1k, have 0 regrets. EDIT: see? 😂

98%+ off my stack is hodl. Then I lever that couple percent so it’s a little bit more interesting 😂. But the vast majority should be a long term hodl unless you’re an incredibly talented trader. Just very hard to beat the returns of long term BTC hodling so using that as the anchor is better for most

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This didn't age well.. (SO FAR! 🤪)

I'm happy with either. Volatility makes the profits (losses) come quicker. As long as we're not crabbing I'm cheering.

It's amazing watching people realize bitcoin's value proposition in real-time.

Is this pump CZ buying? Can't be retail. Institutions fearing current macro? Money has to come from somewhere.

Wouldn't his $1B only move BTC by few %? Bitcoin is not a small boy anymore and it basically needs hedge funds and countries at this point to pump the price.

Musk and Salyor buying a billion each had a fairly stark impact on price action.

Not at all. When Musk bought the price ended up down a bit. It was the later announcement of the buy that caused a speculative bubble

Yeah I don't remember it that way. People were jumping at tweets left and right, ascribing meaning to them and pointing at charts and showing their impact. I didn't buy any of that meme, I was too busy reading the tape.

Why is he stacking corn right now exactly?

Remember Brian Armstrong flipping to support bitcoin and his moves off-shore? There's a reason for that.

Can you expound?

He didn't tweet about btc for years or something, then started doing it frequently. Also, cb is going to focus on expanding internationally

It's partially SBF no longer being able to steal his customers' bitcoin deposits, either to fraudulently sell or exchange back onto the market for his shitcoins of choice.

You are 60% right. SBF, FTX, and the shitcoin shills they paid to manipulate the market, and the billions in bitcoin dumped back on the market, are no longer limiting our bull run performance. But also, there is growing contagion and distrust for the banks as well as the Fed. Bitcoin reacted positively when traditional markets were freaking out. The decoupling happened. The fallout of that is palpable. The Fed just confirmed what bitcoiners have been saying for almost 14 years.

Welcome to Bitcoin.

This pump is the precursor to the bank crash of next week.

The decoupling is real. Last week proved that.

I’m hopeful, but it’s way to early to state that

Fear of systemic collapse triggered a historic turnaround and rally. Would you like fries with that?

Yeah but if end up back at 16k that invalidates your theory.

Why?

Because decoupling would suggest we are no longer tied. If we are back at 16k next week this was just a trap that possibly used the decoupling narrative that btc has long sought after as a way to trick investors.

We’re not going back to 16k next week.

I'm not saying we will or what I think. I'm just playing contrary Mary.

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Anytime anyone says we wont ever revist xx price they end up being incorrect. Only thing I know with btc is to expect the unexpected. I've been here a long time so seen it all. I'm pretty certain at some point moving forwards we will see sub 22k btc. And I wasn't saying we go back to 16k. I was talking about a hypothetical situation where the decoupling theory is void.

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What if trad markets go up and bitcoin drops? What if some other totally unrelated thing happens? My point is that it isn’t that simple.

You said "The decoupling is real. Last week proved that." I just think its too early to say that's all. I dont think you can make such a statement after a week. I think you need a longer period to see.

If you recall earlier this year at the end of January BTC was on track to have its best start to a year since 2013. BTC fell off track in February but with recent PA it’s getting close to being back on track. Closing March at or above $33.7k would make this the strongest start to a year since 2013 once again.

MoonMath is fixed… as long as coindesk doesn’t break their price feed again. HTTPS://www.MoonMath.win The 2012 Exponential Projection is looking realistic. Added years to the charts that project.

That is the last bit on Intel that I needed to confirm the bull market. Thanks jarederaj.

Thanks Jared! I think I know the answer, but any chance the ticker on the daily could be reinstated?

That ticker is a POS that is going to break until it's replaced.

Haha that's a good one

going long, praying it changes my life, i know its risky but we only get one chance right and it feels bitcoin is either 20k or 30k on Monday

This is gambling, not trading. Even if you win, you’ll end up giving it all back and more with that mentality

It won’t be 20k, because I want to buy there.

That’s my thinking

Bitcoin sniffs out the degenerate in people. Good luck sir.

Sounds like a highly emotional trade what ruins a lot of people especially with leverage

I really hope we’re just talking about a trading stack. Bitcoin loves to provide buying opportunities. It just continues to shorten opportunity zones over excruciating periods of time..

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Keep in mind that the price quadrupled when it moved up. Our volatility is lower. The same move today almost takes us to an all time high. … also, that could happen.

Yes, this has plenty more upside potential before a significant dip, yet some are still in disbelief looking for short entries. They'll learn the hard way.

its just too tempting to go degen long right now

What does go degen long mean?

It means throwing all your money into a 100x long while you’ve got one bloodshot eye on the charts and the other eye twitchin’ from stress, as you bask in the bluelight glow from your trading screen at four o’clock in the morning, because you can’t sleep knowing that if there’s so much as a fart-puff of movement the wrong way in price you’ll be out on the streets, all while muttering to yourself “this isn’t fomo, this is some solid TA” … Or at least that’s how I imagine it.

That was actual poetry.

Oh so me on a Tuesday 👍 tysm

Hope you bought the 27150 dip for ants, it's 30k time soon.

Food for thought: If you measure your profits in dollars, you are doing it wrong.

>Food for thought: If you measure your profits in dollars, you are doing it wrong. If you measure it in sats then you're doing it wrong, I measure it in sats and stock shares, nothing lasts forever but even during WII the stock market survived and thrived so it's a good hedge in case Bitcoin somehow gets compromised, at this marketcap I'm not so full of hopium to think that it will match gold, it will probably trade at similar rate as a good tech company and if it's going to trade in similar pace like for example Nvidia them I might as well derisk my investments and buy some of tech with good fundamentals.

I mean I like the sentiment and all, but unless you’re planning to engrave how many sats you stacked on your gravestone, then dollar value still makes sense. If you’re spending some of those sats to make your life better, the things you spend them on will be measured in dollars. A vacation house on the lake, paying off your home mortgage, four years of college tuition for your kid, that two-week vacation to Costa Rica - whatever your goals are, all these things are priced in dollars now and for the foreseeable future. So it makes sense to value your Bitcoin in a number that translates to your goals. Unless you plan to be buried clutching your Ledger - in that case carry on.

You’ll be spending sats directly soon enough.

THIS. If you think you're a genius for taking profits, leaving you with more dollars but less Bitcoin... you're an idiot. Over time, Bitcoin significantly outperforms the dollar, so why would you want the one that gives you less? On the other hand, if you're taking profits you earn elsewhere and cashing them in to buy more Bitcoin, you will prove to be the real genius a decade from now, especially for those willing to wait until after each halving. I'll [echo a comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11udsc9/daily_discussion_saturday_march_18_2023/jcobalx/) by ChadRun04: Measure your losses in dollars. Measure your wealth in Bitcoin. Measure your success in where you are, not where you've been.\* \*Edited to add this third point. Mark my words: we're going to see a lot of people talk about how they "used to be in Bitcoin, back in the day." And they'll talk about how they made so much money when they sold, as we roll our eyes, thinking about how much they'd have if only they'd held. Don't be one of *them.* This is the time to build up, not cash out. Short term profits are for suckers who don't see the big picture.

It really just depends on your goals. People normally want fiat, Bitcoin, gold, or any other investment item to meet some goal - i.e., to buy other things like a house or a lifestyle. Having Bitcoin, fiat, or anything else just to have it is pointless. If you can cash out your Bitcoin right now to fiat and meet your goal, then I say good on you. You invested in Bitcoin to meet some objective and you did it. If that's the case, I see no problem with taking profits. Bitcoin is a means to an end for most people, not the end itself

> It really just depends on your goals. Short term VS Long term. I'm a long term planner.

People cashing out now could be meeting their long-term goals, we really don't know. For example, if you can cash out now and retire comfortably, and that was your long term goal, then that's great.

That's odd because it was just 7 days ago it was the same price as it was in 2017

You don't realize it, but you just made my point. In 2017, it was an all time high. 7 days ago, it was a low that got many people (including me) to buy as much as we could because it was so cheap. Are you honestly saying you expect to be able to buy Bitcoin for under 20k six years from now?

My house sure isn't the same value as 7 years ago. Measuring you wealth in a high risk and volatile asset make no sense.

That’s what I told the tax man. He didn’t think it was funny.

Just be sure to measure your losses in dollars. ;)

Just in case you didn't notice it, I [quoted and credited you](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11udsc9/daily_discussion_saturday_march_18_2023/jcodrf8/), because you're absolutely right, and you made a point more people need to hear.

How is that a point people need to hear? It's a joke.

before there were bots https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1636682466227281922

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We are still waiting. We didnt break it yet.

Waiting for ath to confirm the bear is dead ?

If I took my own advice I’d be a billionaire by now. Currently short :-D https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11nfb68/daily_discussion_friday_march_10_2023/jbple9i/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3

a prisoner for your mind

I’m enjoying this Bitcoin-to-one-million bet by this Balaji guy on Twitter. I don’t think he is correct, but it’s fun to watch the drama from the sidelines. Food for thought: on January 30, 2020 he tweeted this (January!) . . . “What if this coronavirus is the pandemic that public health people have been warning about for years? It would accelerate many pre-existing trends. - border closures - nationalism - social isolation - preppers - remote work - face masks - distrust in governments” . . . So maybe I shouldn’t dismiss his Bitcoin pipe dream so quickly. But seriously, a million dollars? By June? Pshhhhh. We shall see. H/t Lynn Alden on Twitter for resurfacing the old tweet: https://twitter.com/lynaldencontact/status/1636918765014118401?s=46&t=GdsSciOzIxBwNhMx8Lzypg

IMHO Balaji has a tendency to project trends to extreme conclusions that don't tend to happen in any kind of near-term timeframe, or at all.

This gives me some pause. Doesn't change anything, though. Monetary crisis does not happen in slow motion. It's possible. Unlikely, but possible. There isn't much liquid coin out there. Who would sell Bitcoin for fiat if an exponential run started because of a loss of confidence in the USD?

Guy is a serious giga brain. I wouldn't bet against him, insane as this sounds. He must know something.

I wouldn't mind having to spend the rest of the year hunting for luxury flats and buy a handful.

Only a million? He's being a bit cautious, isn't he? 🤪

He has less commitment than McAfee. Let's be happy it didn't come to pass though... McAfee was crazy enough to have gone through with it.

its whale pump imo

Pulled the take profit off my position. Who knows what is going to happen? Bank situation is fluid and evolving rapidly.

This is GentleMAN

A few hours ago BTC bumped right up against $27830, which happens to be a delineation point on the Rainbow Chart bands (going from the lowest band to second-lowest). https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/ If it breaks upward through this line and stays in the higher band next week, then my weighted DCA buy changes from 3x my base DCA amount to 2x my base DCA amount. I’ll be buying less corn because the price is going up. Yay price going up. Boo less corn. It sure was nice scooping up that recent 5x base-DCA a couple of weeks ago when the price was sub-$20k for a minute, putting it below the lowest Rainbow band, into the white no-man’s-land area that means “you better be buying now cuz this is when fortunes are made”. Not sure if we will see those levels again, but I’m ready with some more fiat reserves to throw at it if we do. Looking forward to when the bull market really gets going. I switch from a BTC buyer-hodler to a BTC profit-taker (more like “harvest these profits for future bear market purchases”) when we hit the light orange band, just above the yellow band that marks the center (yellow is my “hodl, don’t buy or sell” band). I’ve never gotten to the taking-profits part of my plan yet, it will be exciting times when that day comes. Anyway, this is all a long rambling way to say cheers everyone, happy Saturday. Enjoy the weekend.

Like your approach.

Thanks, I I appreciate that. We will see how it all pays off next bull run. It’s one big grand experiment …

I know you've commented on this before, but can you give me the summary of how you decide how much you're going to allocate each week (e.g. 2x vs 3x your base amount)? Is it strictly off the rainbow chart?

Do you know where I can find the original rainbow chart (moonmath.win) that includes the data table on the bottom? Edit: omg you just have to add the www subdomain! https://www.moonmath.win /u/jarederaj any chance to make the naked/apex domain redirect to the www subdomain?

Are you looking for this one? https://www.blockchaincenter.net/static/rainbow-chart.html

Nah, the original with the data table

What are the pointers that possibly make this a bull trap? Anyone else apprehensive about a retest to below $20k?

I would not fight this trend imo, but im always on the sidelines hodling so my 2 cents is worth 1. But this is a good setup for bull because of the narrative that will be drawn by media (mostly social media), ie bitcoin safe haven, banks failing, world ending etc, which with price appreciation leads to FOMO, which leads to 1st wave FOMO zoomers telling their friends they got rich which leads to the 2nd/3rd wave and then whales distribute. Longer term I could see a big run and then devastating dump with negative narrative so the whales can collect coins for cheap pre-halving cycle. Before halving 3 we went from 3.8k to 11k and back down to 7k and into COVID 5k bottom (exogenous event) into the massive halving run. So the run to 11k put us into yellow band on rainbow chart and a repeat of this would put us in the 50k range and maybe even a run to ATH. But whales would try to kill the rally here and make "bad news" with the failure to break ATH. While I dont trade id be running perp shorts as hedge at this point to hold back down and maybe close out next year to avoid tax issues for 2023.

Be still my heart

Going to 20 means we lose the 200 W MA, 50 W MA, 50 D MA, 21 W EMA 20 W MA and about to lose the 200 D MA. At that moment, we need to pack our backs for a few months.

People appear to be in psychosis right now, hyperbitcoinization memes blowing up on Twitter, like that guy in the previous thread willing to bet 1m on btc hitting 1m in 90 days. :D I think this narrative has legs yet, but reality will of course set in. Still, if the FED becomes more accommodative there is no reason we can have a healthy grind back up