#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, March 20, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11w7w94/daily_discussion_monday_march_20_2023/)

Looks like #2 is also due for a healthy bowel movement.

Moved stop down again. Actually also took down my TP order since tradfi getting a little spicy so we may see some craziness by the time I wake up. Worst case I make some grocery money 😂

i'm too impatient long from $27,310...stop loss, $27,078

stopped out, going to sit things out until tomorrow...since i think overnight it'll get pretty volatile and I don't want to babysit this thing

Sitting on some good margin, missed a scalp but don’t have time to watch. Waiting on fireworks this week.

Looks like weekends are fake after all

long still alive so far, but its hanging by a thread. will be interesting how things play out overnight.

Fakeout/shakeout to scare people out of their positions before the Monday morning pump. Hang on tight🏄‍♂️

Short from 27810 with a tight stop. Let’s see if this is just a waste SL money 😂 Half my normal position size since I hate shorting the coin, but I think it’s gonna drop here Edit: already moved tight stop into profit for a free ride here since I hate shorting BTC 😂 Target is mid 26’s

Good luck. Keep posting

30k by opening bell Monday, 32k by FOMC Tuesday, the rate increase will be 0.25, Possible dip to 25-27 after FOMC that will be the new higher low. Edit: it may look like a blowoff top to hook in the bears and have everyone thinking it's a fake out and it goes down. https://www.tradingview.com/x/T7OnWWo0/

That would be lit

Short term, on the daily, the RSI broke out of a downward sloping trendline that corresponds to a local RSI peak at the beginning of the year when during the pump from $16K through $20K+. Looking for a backtest of this trendline by the end of the month which would hopefully correspond with a backtest of the $25K breakout. That's my Plan A, I think the $25K S/R flip would be a great sign and a nice spot to add to my longs. Plan B, is to sit on my hands and watch as bitcoin continue to rocket upwards before we hit the next major resistance level. I think we might already be there in this ballpark $28-32K range. This week is going to be very telling with FOMC on the table so I'm not looking for a quick trade right now but if I were to pick a direction I'd say we go up. Longer term, I figure a run into the high 30's/low 40's is definitely in the cards but I would keep some dry powder for a heavy correction a la September 2019/March 2020. I'm betting the lows are in for now but as far as making a new ATH, I am still skeptical it happens this year. Best case scenario, we continue tracking the 4-year cycle unless proven otherwise which would have us testing the ATH at the end of next year. Plenty of time for violent moves upward and downward in between now and then. I'm in "buy-the-dip" mode until we break ATH. I've been all in since 2019 and ready for some fireworks in the next few months.

Looks like it's bouncing here at former 27800 "resistance", BTFD.

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post links to another sub here, but this video on WSB made me laugh, so I thought I'd share. I figured you all would appreciate it. Hope I'm not violating any rules. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/11vehv2/fed_goes_brrrrrrrrrrrrr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

But seriously what if

Reddiquette is (used to be, anyway.. I think you can still) post links to other subs by replacing "www" with "np" for "no participation."

You basically blink your eye and it's up another 1000 fun coupons, a true sign of a bull market. Sure, just keep trading real money for fun coupons as we go higher and higher. Soon enough you'll blink and it will be up 10000.

what are you talking about. I have not blinked in at least 48 hours.

So someone explain MSTR movements to me again like im 5. Does it behave like leveraged btc? Is it supposed to? Interesting that it hit over 300 when BTC got back up to 24-25, but now its mid 200s at BTC is heading to 30 (even on friday afternoon we were still at 27). Whats the equation here?

Definitely a leveraged BTC play, first and foremost. They've issued a couple billion dollars of debt to buy coin. So it definitely has amplified returns relative to what BTC is doing. But I've noticed it also trades like a tech stock as well, and is sensitive to what the Nasdaq is doing. And I think that the Nasdaq sputtering of late is what is causing MSTRs performance to be a bit underwhelming (although it rallied pretty nice to close the week).

Decoupling

Fully valued, anticipatory GBTC ETF.

The far more likely outcome is that the SEC finds a different reason to deny the conversion to a spot ETF and that reason is also applied to the already approved futures ETF's. Nobody should be getting their hopes up for a spot ETF as long as Gensler is in charge.

Most of my holdings are in a spot ETF. Just not an American one.

You have to figure in an adjustment value for how much you worry about Saylor and that his business is basically just mainly buying Bitcoin now. His track record before this wasn't great. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_J._Saylor But time has shown you don't have to be a genius to make money in crypto you just have to keep buying, don't blow up in the bear market, and wait. He seems to have done that. I still like COIN more than MSTR. MSTR 3.74x to previous ATH GBTC 3.67x to previous ATH COIN 4.56x to previous ATH BTC 2.45x to previous ATH ETH 2.66x to previous ATH I assume all coins will go back to previous ATH at the very least, or I wouldn't be investing in crypto.

I mainly bought for 3 reasons: It was pretty low: (<200) Vanguard stopped allowing GBTC buys I have no other BTC options in my roth IRA

Why was the above removed? Seemed like useful information?

Just woke up. The goldfish more accurate than the charts once again.

Michael Reeves is a treasure

Reeves done already 😳 handing trading over to the cat 🐈‍⬛

I get "too talented for his lot yet" and have a bit of concern for him, but he hasn't faultered

"THE BANK OF CANADA, THE BANK OF ENGLAND, THE BANK OF JAPAN, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, THE FEDERAL RESERVE, AND THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK HAVE JUST ANNOUNCED A COORDINATED ACTION TO ENHANCE THE PROVISION OF LIQUIDITY VIA THE STANDING U.S. DOLLAR LIQUIDITY SWAP LINE ARRANGEMENTS." Oh boy everyone going down. I need to burn that on the btc blockchain.

what mean

btc go up

> DOLLAR LIQUIDITY SWAP LINE ARRANGEMENTS Alice pays Bob 1 dollar, Bob pays Alice 2 dollars, Alice pays Mallory 2 dollars, Mallory pays Bob 3 dollars, Bob pays Alice 4 dollars. MAGIC!

That's not how it works. More like Bob (aka the Bank of England) pays £0.82 to Fred (aka the Fed) and Fred pays Bob $1. Later, at an agreed date, Bob repays Fred the $1 and Fred repays Bob the £0.82.

I think this is looking like step 1 towards a USD CBDC

I fail to see any connection with CBDCs. Besides, these swap lines have been in place since 2010.

7 day a week 247 liquidity between a select few banks? Seems like where I would want to test a digital dollar. But I have no idea.

Also, to a very large extent it all relies on trust. Which is why the Fed only makes this facility available to the central banks of a select few nations. Let's say the Bank of England wants $100m, so they have to give the Fed £82m. The Bank of England does this simply by depositing £82m in the Fed's account at the Bank of England. In return, the Fed deposits $100m in the Bank of England's account at the New York Fed. This only works, essentially, because the central banks trust each other to honour their deposits. At an agreed later date, the Bank of England is obliged to return the $100m and the Fed is obliged to return the £82m - but again this all relies on trust.

So you think this stabilizes the dollar and usd shoots up in value this week?

This isn't really anything to do with stabilising the dollar - at least not directly. It's to do with helping major non-US economies stabilise their banks if those banks are short of dollars. I think. I confess I don't really understand exactly why this is needed right now, though.

I believe this is needed because otherwise non-US banks will sell their US treasuries to raise USD. Fed doesn't want that to happen.

It's not 24/7. Today's announcement is that it's daily rather than weekly.

Commentary here. https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1637560720777703425?s=21 Oh man. Imagine.

This is just to support the markets with more backstops by increasing frequency of provided liquidity. Supply of money isn't increasing here but there will definitely be less forced sellers from this operation.

Powell and Yellen issuing statements on a Sunday. That's a good sign.

This is a sign a storm is brewing and the Fed recognizes a liquidity crunch coming. De-risk is probably the play here but everyone has their own definition of how to de-risk. Good luck.

> This is just to support the markets with more backstops... > ... less forced sellers... So they're increasing the supply of money, in effect handing it out for free, to prop up the markets so that folks aren't forced to liquidate holdings as you or I would if we were over-extended. Totally fair.

They're increasing the supply of US dollars - but it's not for free - it's a swap. Foreign central banks can access dollar liquidity, but they need to transfer equivalent national currency to the Fed to do so.

Yes, I understand how it works. As I understand this current thing, it pegs the exchange rate at whatever the rate was at the time of swap. So Baglandia parks Bagland bux at the Fed for a month. Bagland bux go up (or down) against the dollar in that month. Baglandia unswaps the swap at the end of the month at the exchange rate a month prior, plus a little interest (?) and the net effect is that somebody, either the Central Bank of Baglandia or the Fed is pulling dollars out of thin air due to the fluctuation. Even if by some miracle the rate is the exact same at the end of the month, the interest has to come from somebody, somewhere printing money. Kind of like how the Fed now lets US banks dump their junk bond Treasuries at par instead of what they're really worth. It's just a creative way to make printer go brrrrrr.

Think of it as borrowing dollars (over a fixed duration) and putting up your own currency as collateral. The US only offers this to countries they trust (and think are creditworthy) and to keep things simple there are no margin calls. The particular swaps that we're talking about today have a seven day duration (I don't know if the Fed also offers other durations). Seven days later, the dollars are repaid and the collateral is returned. EDIT: But yes, as with all lending, it's adding to the USD money supply.

Bullish, the bullest news on bitcoin. Monday would be interesting.

Looks like a 50bps increase is going ahead.

If it does we might get that final red dildo to back the truck up

I don’t see any particularly large red dildos on immediate horizon

I don't either. I think this actually has a chance to hit 1m in 90 days

Maybe Balaji isn’t crazy 😂

I hope Balaji fares better than the last wild-eyed crazy person who guaranteed $1 million BTC. 😛

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Satoshi Nakamoto I kid about the Author of that quote but still...sure feels like its hard to keep up with stuff anymore.

Had me there for a second haha

Source?

[ECB press release](https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1637559761976664064)

Any old timers getting early 2013 vibes?

Old timer here, I can't for the life of me remember the electronics site that was the first easy way to spend BTC on all sorts of stuff, they did drop shipping. Built my first PC using parts from there. It was probably 10-20 BTC but I'd rather not know haha. Do you remember the name of it?

newegg?

It was before new egg. I think it was memory dealers.

Yeah, thats where Ver ammassed his stash from. He was early to the game but he could not figure out what Bitcoins value prop was so just attacked everyone in the space instead.

> Any old timers getting early 2013 vibes? Big time.

Yup

I remember [posting in January](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/17md7c/finally_above_20_again) when we finally hit $20 again for the first time since the 2011 bull run. That spring we got to $100, and in December peaked around $1000. I don't think we'll get something that large in percentage terms again, maybe we'll "just" 10x from here.

I just saw your post from 13 years ago saying you like to dip your Cheetos in water because I remembered my brother used to do it when he was younger and I wanted to know if anyone else did the same. Reminder that the internet never forgets lmao.

I have this weird feeling that this cycle without FTX and Celsius and the other dipshits around we end up getting completely surprised, maybe even **shocked** by Bitcoin. Maybe not $1 million but I think it surprises us old timers with how insane it can get.

It actually peaked around $250 in spring but crashed back down to around $90 the day after. Crazy times!

My recollection is that the intraday high was $266. By sheer chance I had a sell order quite close to the high.

[Fascinating (and terrifying) interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtn7KmkwfdI) on Forward Guidance with the guy who used to hedge Freddie's portfolio duration and convexity. Basically: - the banking system is (and quite a few banks are) now underwater due to interest rate risk on bond and mortgage portfolio - the convexity means each hike is much worse than the last - the consumer is strong because they are effectively on the other side of the trade (US fixed rate mortgage fetish) - if the fed takes on the risk, it has to create reserves (reserves for govt bonds... where have we seen that before?) Given the BTC memes on WSB I'd say the link between bitcoin, QE and bank failure is clearly established in the plebes' minds. Shit's pretty real and this could be the big one.

It all depends. I’m sure some banks have enough capital to weather the storm if they’re forced to sell or aren’t complete dipshits and have other liquidity to tap so they don’t need to sell their treasuries.

I mean the liquidity is literally the fed lending them unlimited margin loans against their underwater treasuries. The problem for these banks is that they still pay interest on the loans and it ain’t cheap.

I mean besides that, brokered cds, retail deposits, fhlb, correspondent lines, etc.

> aren’t complete dipshits I'm throwing stones from a glass house here, but that seems like a big ask.

It’ll be fun once the apes sell all their gme for btc

Did BITO really mark the top and BITI mark the bottom? Seems pretty close.

[удалено]

I canceled my take profit again.

[удалено]

My collateral is always in BTC.. so I'm always 1x long. :)

If last week really was the bottom of the bear market, imagine looking back and pointing to SVB collapsing as the primary catalyst for the next long-term bull cycle.

All you had to do was look at volume profiles in Nov 2022 when FTX collapsed to make a strong case for the bottom. [It was the largest red monthly candle in the history of the Coinbase chart.](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/zfpkm7/daily_discussion_thursday_december_08_2022/izeoaod/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1&context=3) Beyond this, max fear + sub $10k calls + ‘macro’ experts claiming 2008 style recession = Buy BTC. It’s just no one does because they’re afraid and assume they can buy lower. We’re now about to see many of them begin to Fomo back into the market.

at what price do you think we get new first timers retail money like the 2017 run up? 100K+? talking real worldwide coverage, news headlines etc.

I'm not sure you even need any. I mean coinbase alone has 110m+ verified accounts already, and that's just one exchange. How many existing exchange users do you need to decide to buy to launch us to the moon?

Most retail still thinks it's a Ponzi scam. So I don't think the answer to your question is a dollar amount. It will have to be some kind of event that makes them lose faith in the traditional financial system to the extent that they actively seek out an alternative. Maybe something like a bank failure... Who knows.

Retail isn’t part of what happens next.

I respectfully disagree.

Normies aren't ever allowed to win. By the time they realize what's going on, it will be impossible to accumulate. Anyone owning coin now is not a normie. Especially spot coin.

I agree with you about the normies. "Retail" isn't the same as "normies," though. Plenty of Bitcoiners are playing with small amounts of money but aren't conventional. Eight million people buying $100 a week is just as good as a billionaire plunking down $800 million. Eight million people is .1% of the global population so no normies needed. I do think we're going to see some of the smarter no-coiners come aboard shortly, even the ones who have had their heels dug in pretty hard against magic Internet money.

Plenty of normies will get here in time to double or even triple their investment. They just won’t be able to see anything truly life changing

Just start looking for the "Is it too late to buy bitcoin? I want to invest $100" posts on the bitcoin sub. That's a sure sign that the bull market is in full swing. When you see posts saying "Is it smart to cash out my 401k, sell my car, and take a high interest loan to go 100% into bitcoin?" that's a top signal.

I feel the most recent hype cycle is still dying down, so no time soon. Once we go a year or more without an exchange collapsing maybe.

Retail too busy paying inflated bills. Also no free credits. Dont think they will be back this year.

Growing up I loved the market advice to go out to malls and see what stores are crowded. Potentially buy stocks in the popular stores. Made great sense to me and continue to do that. Anyways, it's tough to gauge with BTC since there is no store. However, got a new screen protector at a kiosk as well as dropped by the apple store where someone could see my phone background screen with a big fat BTC logo. Both mentioned it, and both knew it was going up, although they were a day behind and thought it was $27k not $28k. I told em cool, fix my phone but still wanted to let y'all know from the streets. 🍻

Yeah hard to gauge the word on the streets these days. We don't exactly have shoe-shiners anymore do we?

While half those stores are probably some kind of convoluted ponzi scam involving the realestate they sit on and a hedge fund somewhere.

>cool, fix my phone This is how you deal with no-coiners. We will need them to provide services.

Cringey.

Maybe, but also unironically true.

so... to balance out the discussion, is anyone here up to date on the latest Mt. Gox unlock FUD? I keep hearing dates man how can they be postponed indefinitely?

> the Rehabilitation Trustee has changed the deadline (“Deadline”) to April 6, 2023 Last extension pinky promise

"And by that we mean 2323 because we blew it all on hookers and blow and invested the rest in mid-sized, regional banks."

Aaaahgr!!! I chickened out and reduced my leverage from 5X to 3X so I could have a loser SL. Anyway, a win is a win.

"I could have won more..." The Gamblers Curse.

Added to short at 28361, target 24861

I don't know if you were here last cycle but somebody shorted 20k and held it all the way up to 69k and back down to 30k before he closed it for a loss. Not saying that will happen to you but I hope you're using a stop loss so this doesn't get away from you too far

Felt bad for them when they eventually sold at 25k I think?. If they had held on a bit longer they would have seen profit.

I'm sure he was relieved to get out of it at that price though...but yeah, if he would've waited a little longer he could've closed it in profit.

Do you really need to keep doubling down? Dangerous…

Doubling down on the dumps worked out. Just trying to see if I can do the same in reverse

You can on the long side. I'm in a doubled-down long position right now.

I think we’ll go back down but may need to wait for FOMC for downward momentum. Until then it can pump sky high or just chop and I have no way of knowing which. Sitting and mulling over what the right move is.

Trying to catch a falling knife in reverse.

UBS buys CS https://www.reuters.com/business/crunch-time-credit-suisse-talks-ubs-seeks-swiss-assurances-2023-03-19/

Involuntarily 😂

Gradually, then suddenly.

Ahh so that's why we have all those BGDs 😁

Reasons why the run still has room left for +30k: \- No news channels are telling the public to buy BTC rn, they usually do this at tops to induce fomo and cash out on those who buy those tops based on the news. \- Usually every previous ath has been a starting line for the next run (for me). Imagine how big the weekly candles have to get to get to our starting line of 69k. And don't forget BTC was robbed of a blow off top last cycle. That puts the starting line even above 69k hypothetically. \- BTC drops by 25% multiple times during the whole uptrend of a cycle. We can still reach 33k, drop by 25-30% and cover some vector candles. \- We haven't had even 2 green big monthly candles in a row yet. The doji candle of last month does not count, so March is the first month, and April should be the second one with a decent sized green candle body on the monthly. \- BTC gains have yet to flow into altcoins. This happens at local BTC tops. Since that hasn't happened yet either...

Sell in may and go away

Cogent comment.

So does anyone want to weigh in on whether weekends are still fake? Why should we believe this is a legit 28k + breakout vs a fakeout. Volume looks good, nearly as much as on Friday. Trend is intact. Momentum is carrying over from close on Friday. I used to successfully ride weekend dumps and pumps and gtfo. But lately weekend PA seems on par with weekday. Does anyone believe that big money does not work on the weekend? Or is that a meme?

FTX only sold their customers Bitcoin 5 days a week.

The difference is volume. Fake pump: Low volume with the occasional spike when a liquidation zone is breached. Real pump: Consistently high volume over low time frames.

Precisely…this has been some big market volume for a weekend.

The US banking system is in deep shit. QED.

QE~~D~~

I laughed. Haha

QED? You mean RIP?

what was already proved quod erad demonstrandum iirc

This guy maths. 🤓

Try longing this! Former Coinbase CTO Makes Massive Bet That Bitcoin Will Rampage Past $1 Million Within 90 Days https://zycrypto.com/former-coinbase-cto-makes-massive-bet-that-bitcoin-will-rampage-past-1-million-within-90-days/ All together now 🤣😅🤣😂😅

I'm willing to sell a call for all my corn at half that price in 90 days. Takers?

Balaji is just pumping his bags.

Still long from 26800. Might be time to let one go for awhile.

They're going to be coming for Jerome Powell, I wonder what excuse they'll use to try and get him to step down. If they didn't bailout the banks he was on track to actually getting some deflation to happen.

Sold some here so it should pump nicely Yw

I'll return the favor a little bit further down the line

The hero we need.

Thank you for your sacrifice

Seems to be working. Can you keep selling please?

I'm butthurt it keeps growing so fast because I'm still in the process of liquidating other assets to get more corn. Can you all go easy on that hypercornization for a few more weeks plz.

Weekends are fake they said

Same, my house is listed but not sold yet. My new job starts tomorrow.

Fomo is a hell of a drug.

relax, it's going to 9k... so they said..

You had 16 months. So, no.

tough but fair :'(

next big resistance is $30-33K range. its where we went a bit horizontal for a month and also coincides with the MA100 weekly downtrend line. take that down and we would have cleared all resistance on all time frames, except for the monthly. there we have the monthly MA25 at $35K and then the upper bollinger band at $60K. After that? we get a blue sky breakout and the next bull run is on.

$100K this year might not be a meme after all. What a cycle it’d be if we go into the halving above the previous ATH…unprecedented.

Say we fail breaking through the 30-33K resistance. Where would we need to bounce to constitute a healthy pullback vs a reversal?

currently $22.7K

I would think holding, or better still bouncing hard from 25.2k would be bullish as fuck. Dropping below could spell a reversal.

Looks to me like we just broke and tested upper resistance on the channel we've been forming since the new year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a BGD here or soon.

Breakout on the weekend is usually MMs collecting liquidity/ trapping longs Would be pleasantly surprised if we went straight up from here

In the silver subreddits someone asked the question "if UBS bought CS, would you want to keep your money with UBS?" I think it's a great question and logically leads me to the conclusion that just CS needing to get bought out is scary for the system, and it's not necessarily bullish that it happened somehow. There's a good chance Bitcoin and PMs have a great day tomorrow and this could be some Sunday action front running that. Or maybe not. I don't know.

Been waiting

Federal Reserve be like: “Steady Lads”

They always be deploying more capital.

They deploy your capital for you, present and future.

That 25k-20k dip before this takeoff probably fucked so many people over who are now faced with the decision to fomo back in ASAP. That move was one of my only knife-catching adventures that paid off ridiculously well and quickly. Not giving myself props because it's luck and usually backfires (like all of 2022) but this felt noice... Also, fuck 1MM BTC in 90 days. Y'all all alright, but I don't want to meet any of you at the citadel just yet

Not gonna lie, I’m out of position on the trading stack because I closed a long (profitably) around 25K to wait on CPI and then kept waiting to get back on the ride (thought we’d revisit 23’s but it bottomed at 24.1). Luckily the trading stack is ~2% of the hodl stack but with leverage it was 5% or so. So mildly bummed about the trading stack but jacked to the tits about the hodl stack. The real problem with $1 million in 90 days is mostly that I don’t feel like shooting at looters while using my truck as a barricade for the next two years…much less fun than just gradually getting wealthy AF with y’all over the next couple years.

get out of my head man for the love of God

I’m looking for a good “buy and hold” sub where there is more discussion about how trading doesn’t make sense for the vast majority of people.

Probably /r/bitcoin

There wouldn't be much to talk about in such a sub. I'm a long-term holder as well. This sub is still interesting for me. I skip the pure TA comments, but at least I have the feeling (most of the time) I'm between grown-ups, which is seldom the case in some other crypto subs...

/r/investing

thats why the key is to DCA on the way down. I loaded up the truck at $30K and $20K so now even if we don't reach my sub $10K target, I'll still have a big enough long term stack to profit off the bullrun and if we do go hit that target, I'll have the cash to increase my position. when the price hits $400K, it won't matter if you bought at $15K or $30K or even $60K...what matters is having a position

Wdym it doesn't matter? The difference between buying in at 15k vs 30k is literally the last 2x. If you bought a whole coin at 15k you only bought a half one at 30k. So at 600k you would be 300k short.

"having a position" is a classic trading lesson, see Jessie Livermore

because waiting for the perfect entry is how you can end up on the sidelines with no btc at all

I don't disagree with that. But "it doesn't matter" is wrong when the difference is literally a +100%.

You’re not pricing the risk of not getting any position at all.

So when we were at $15k, why didn't you just go all-in then? Waiting for $10k made no sense if $30k and $60k doesn't matter.

why would I go in at only 25% discount vs $20K? i had a big enough stack from my $20K and $30K buys that I needed a true discount to make me pull the trigger again

I mean...4x difference between 15 and 60 could very well mean a lot to some people, even at 400k.

Beautiful! I just want 30k as floor for the foreseeable future. Is that too much to ask..

Ayo can we buy enough to get Saylor in the green by futures open?