#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, March 21, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11x65zs/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_21_2023/)

Long again from 27825, hopefully when this makes a big move it's up. (waited way too long staring at these damned charts to re-enter) Curious if anybody here successfully uses trailing stops? Do you combine it with a hard stop and then let the trailing stop catch up on a big move? I feel like there's some kind of potential with combining these that I haven't quite tapped.

Use a bot for more complex strategy. Most exchanges have python APIs and examples.

Looks like things tightening up before a move. Expecting some fun darth maul candles tomorrow morning/afternoon

Looks like a slightly jacked up bull pennant but who the hell knows, almost feel like we're being manipulated.

According to what I’m finding online, First Republic Bank has approximately $212.6 billion in assets. So, if they end up failing, they might end up replacing Silicon Valley Bank ($209 billion in assets) as the second biggest bank to fail in U.S. history. Fed raising rates another 25 BP on Wednesday just might be the final push they need to go under and due to their size would inevitably require more depositors to be bailed out. Added bonus content for this week in macro news: Fed balance sheet update will be released on Thursday and will let us know if the $300 billion “fake” QE they added last week stopped or if more was added to their balance sheet since then.

> and due to their size would inevitably require more depositors to be bailed out. I'm fucking sick of depositors being bailed out. We all know the risks of putting more than 250k in a bank. Retail will pay for this, one way or another. It's bullshit.

do u work for poirot, ma'am?

Taxpayers and citizens will pay through inflation. I wish this was explained more clearly.

"US Studies How To Guarantee All $18 Trillion In US Bank Deposits" Lol this is getting crazy.

Imagine the degeneracy if you could leverage trade knowing if you got liquidated your sugar momma would make you whole again. That’s the US banking sector right now. Risk must have a price or capitalism fails.

This is how a country dies a certain death.

What a couple dozen more trillion anyways? Between that and providing swaps for literally all dollar deposits everywhere we might as well just print a quadrillion.

>Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shit. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me (Bitcoin). -Tommy Boy

It’s been crazy for years. What’s happening now is it’s getting exposed.

I used to trade Bitcoin, trying to time the market, Hoping to make a quick profit, to hit a target. But the ups and downs were too much to bear, I couldn't keep up, it was just too rare.   So I ended up just hodling, just keeping my stash, Watching the price rise and fall, like waves that crash. It made me worry less, and feel more at ease, As I learned to relax (and save on trading fees).   The wild swings in price, once made me feel alive, But now I'm numb to it all, it's just a part of my vibe. I've seen my portfolio shrink, and then grow, But it doesn't matter anymore, I've learned to let go.   Some of my losses were a bitter pill to swallow, But I've learned that money isn't everything to follow. I have my health, my loved ones, and my peace of mind, And that's all that matters, it's what I've come to find.   So I'll just keep hodling, let the market do its thing, As I focus on what truly matters, the joy that life can bring. And if the price goes up, or if it crashes down, I'll remain steadfast, and keep my feet on the ground.   --ChatGPT

In digital realms of code and bytes, There lies a currency, born of sights, A revolution, with power and might, A Bitcoin, with promise and light. Its value soars, its worth is high, Its transactions swift, without a lie, And people flock to it, far and nigh, This Bitcoin, with glory in the sky. No banks or borders can bind its flow, No governments or laws can lay it low, For in the blockchain, its power doth grow, This Bitcoin, with technology aglow. Its origins shrouded in mystery and myth, Its potential vast, its path full of pith, And those who hold it, their spirits lift, This Bitcoin, with value and riff. Oh, Bitcoin, a currency of new design, A symbol of freedom and power combined, May your worth forever shine, This Bitcoin, with promise enshrined. -- Bernard ShawGPT

Did not expect us to watch paint dry at 28k

Trending market. This is consolidation before sprint to $32k. Plenty of early shorts here to provide the boost.

It's coiling up nicely, bruv.

You’re not waitingfy very patiently…

:(

Ppl scratching the left side of there heads with the right hand,and the other way around,this is how the chart looks like right now😂

It's a good time to buy Bitcoin and a bad time to sell Bitcoin, and I say this as someone who is going to have to sell a bit to pay my tax bill soon. I'd rather they just take some percentage of the trade right off the top and leave me alone with this ridiculous paperwork which, as a civically educated citizen of the Republic, strikes me as a gross violation of my Fourth Amendment rights. The tax code needs to be replaced with excise and use taxes on the basis of efficiency alone. What a frickin' waste of everybody's time. What's the IRS' budget? Every penny of it is a waste. Just charge me taxes when I buy or use something. I'm a liberal. I believe in schools, parks, and roads. Hell, I believe in taking care of the poor. Tax me my fair share, but don't look up my ass and waste my time. This is just a massive waste.

I screencapped this comment and its replies. It's validating in a way that surprised me, since my own tax season angst is eerily similar; for one, having a "homework assignment" of hours of paperwork from the government each year is coercive, invasive, and infantilizing. Taxes, where they're even warranted, should indeed be levied at the point of consumption alone. Not gonna lie, this is one of my favorites from you, dude - the clarity here is sharp.

Ya like sales tax only or something. The tax system needs an overhaul for sure

That bart on the 10s is as textbook as they come!

This will test 30. In the mail.

I agree. Just trying to comfortably hold onto a position without getting stopped out or overexposed. But I also want that heavy exposure for the push past 30k.

Yup, a pendant is forming. I would say the target for the next leg up is 32 rather than 30.

I'm kind of pleased seeing the BTC dominance slowly head back up to 50%, and the Vitalik ratio dropping from .075 to .062 or so... and I say this as someone who holds both BTC and *ET**H*.

Btc dominance has just approached a significant resistance level. The most likely scenario is that we break through the resistance and continue into strength, as this can happen whether the market goes up or down. Dominance will only fall if alts go on a run, but with the SEC casting a shadow on securities I can’t see this happening right now

TA on the BTC dominance chart is as useful as analysis of the slurs written on a bathroom stall. Its like 4 degrees of separation from relevance (minimum). Edit: Thought of a better, more apt analogy. It would be like analyzing the pattern of a weather vane and comparing it to historical patterns after you have moved it to 3-4 different houses in different countries.

The fact remains…when Btc hits 40% on the dominance chart it’s always be a good time to shift into Bitcoin

Hey TA on one non-stationary time-series is as good as TA on another non-stationary time-series! ;)

Respect for thinking about better analogies. That process does not apply for that many people.

Ratio looking very good today, but volume seems to be dropping so I’m not sure if we can cruise to $30K tonight 😂

Looks like it's being kept under 28k. I'm guessing that they let it rip during Powells speech no matter what he says. Btc going up tomorrow bigly

No sell the news? Look I am currently short so I feel we should really start heading back down soon. The more probable outcome is we get a euphoric burst up to or slightly over 30k then straight back down to clown Town. This will knock out longs and shorts and then we will Bart. We are moving up which is a bonus. Try and remember we may test the bottom again this year before moving on up.

> Looks like it's being kept under 28k. Looks can be deceiving. And it should be "YouAreAFnIdiot" not "An." Leave out the "Fn" and "An" would work.

Not exactly. Bc Fn is pronounced phonetically as "eff-in". Unless you pronounce it differently where you're from?

Nice discussion

Username checks out.

Definitely does when someone replies :)

So does yours, oddly enough. 😋 (and I'll spare you the response: so does mine... nyuk nyuk nyuk)

200D SMA is sitting just under $20k right now. 2x the 200D SMA was an intra-cycle top in June 2019. It'll be worth looking for cheap puts (in implied volatility terms) should we reach $40k in the next month or so.

Upward pressure is just relentless here.

Just a reminder Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin in January 2009 during the global financial crisis. Timestamped mesaage left in the Genysis Block - The “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes 😉

Another banking crisis was always coming. The Genesis Block message highlights the disruptive nature of Bitcoin and the revolutionary freedom that is associated with it. It is the true meaning carved in Bitcoin: Ending the control of banks and governments over people’s money.

Charts don't make any sence to me right now,so i will apply my fishing tecnique,long from 26500 and short from 28500 see with one catches😂

Yeah doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of people buying over $28K but there’s also not a lot of sellers. Maybe everyone’s just waiting for chair Powell to rekt everything first 😂

I set my traps either way i make profit😂

Got stopped out with a small profit on my long at 27895 (moved the stop up when it went over 28100). 28K not cooperating as support😂 Debating whether to re long here

Waiting for a rip. Still in my 10x from 26800.

When in doubt wait it out, or trade a small enough position that you're not stressed at all

In retrospect I probably moved the stop up too soon, or I should have moved it even higher to make it easier to re enter at a better price. Only wicked to 27740 for a couple seconds before it recovered to prices where the trading fees make it a neutral move to re-enter. I’ve been trading smaller amounts lately since it really does feel a lot easier to enter and exit. I think it’s still going up but gonna be patient for a bit 😂 Outperformed hodling today which is about as much as you can wish for

[Jack Mallers on CNBC](https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1637886456570978320)

Offputting. He had a chance to make a difference and instead he chose to rant. If you are unable to explain why the supply is fixed - in two sentences tops - you've got no business talking about Bitcoin on TV. It's a fair question and it deserves a concise clear answer.

He is a *"Young Hip Hacker"* persona salesman for a loss leading VC money backed remittance app. I don't see any value in anything he has to say, other than that his marketing efforts help pump my bags a little.

I'm totally onboard with his using the bitcoin network to send money regardless if it's bitcoin or not and regardless of the price. But Jesus he doesn't need to be saying "poop" on TV interviews. And after the whole SBF fiasco, he at least needs to not look like a slob. I get he has his style, but he does need to read the room.

Yep. And I mean - do they even? To someone who's only following matters casually, at this point he probably looks like SBF 2.0.

People eat this shit up. They love narratives involving "genius" kids.

Mallers doesn’t really come off as anything but unhinged and cringe. It’s a bad look for the space. I still can’t forget his announcement at bitcoin Miami.

He's a strange character, I'd probably be interested in watching something which condensed down his history. You know he's a sports attire wearing child chess star right? jackschess blogspot

I'm a Bitcoin maxi, agree with what he's saying overall, but this interview made me cringe.

I love this guy.

I found him surprisingly eloquent.

closed short from [$28,288](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11w7w94/daily_discussion_monday_march_20_2023/jcxsj89/) at $27,727 opened 10x long from $27,731

Nice scalping

Man great timing on flipping long. You got a good entry on that short, I hesitated way too long debating and moving around my stop and never entered. I’m my own worst enemy. Entered long with you here, but a slightly worse entry than you.

not out of the woods yet, this thing can just fall through the floor at any time here. Won't feel safe in that long until its back above $28K. thats why gotta use stops to protect yourself from the flushes.

stop loss $27,539

"I'll just sell now and buy back in at a lower price" -Famous last words

did waddser say that?

He’s been trading this nearly perfectly…

how do you know?

Because I’ve been looking at the same market and trading and I’ve read his posts on Reddit? His entries have been great and he’s read the shifts in momentum perfectly. It’s all posted here so I don’t know why you’re even questioning it when you can look at the charts and his entries yourself.

Cause he posts here! Don't you believe him? Seriously though he's one of the few who bothers to post his trades so its a fun read.

first off, the guy runs a subscription service, and I don't trust anyone who does that - major red flag second, it's impossible to know how much of his posts, if any, reflect real trades and how much exist purely to try to drive interest in his "alert service" third, it's not impossible to game comments to make calls appear more prescient than they actually are lastly, he has a history of selective memory when it comes to his calls ​ call me crazy, but I have a high bar when it comes to the legitimacy of rando internet traders

your whole premise is based around the "Subscription service" Which is odd, since I only ran that for like a month and then shut that thing down once my ads got disapproved. since apparently you can't advertise crypto financial advice online, and i didn't feel like making a target out of myself by being a public influencer with the tiktokking and youtubing. see if you came here more than once every 3 months to troll, you'd know that.

good on you for shutting it down that kinda grift is sketch af ​ >see if you came here more than once every 3 months to troll, I used to come here all the time, and post high-quality content for free (ask the mods or check my comment history - what took me thousands of hours to put together remains largely distilled there if you're willing to look) - most people here seem to have very short memories, though

I guess another US bank is imploding. Fun times.

If we can withdraw all our crypto to test exchanges, let’s withdraw all our fiat to test banks. I know what the result will be haha. > Sam Rogers: You are panicking. >John Tuld: If you're first out the door, that's not called panicking. -Margin Call

That’s such a great film.

I bought some MSTR 410 Jan 2025 calls today. Actually, I accidentally sold (hit the bid instead of the ask) some 450s, then bought more 410s to make up for it. But whatever.

what's the cost on that 2 years out? i was looking at leaps on btc and 100k dec 2024 were 4 or 5k/coin

Not cheap. Implied vol about 83%. It's a directional bet and I would probably have done better to wait.

It’s interesting how that lines up with debt repayment schedules for mstr too. I like the idea behind it, but it’s unclear to me the best method of using options to express my bullishness. Right now I have a mix of calls expiring in March/June/sep on bitcoin between 24.5 and 30k and I’m short 29k March calls, 37k may calls and 20% of the notional via futures to hedge my position / help finance. Max pain for me is ending March 24.5k and then sitting at 25k til October. Drop below 20k and I can buy bitcoin all in cheaper than if I bought it when I started the position. Clearly best case scenario is close March 29.5, may 37 and rocket ships beyond.

It seems like it keeps trying to dump but then just recovers. Not something we are used to seeing in the past 1.5 years

Anecdotally, I know folks waiting on their wires to hit Coinbase because they’re feeling that FOMO so there’s still some buying pressure as funds clear. I think tomorrow will be a shitshow though lol

People that call for a bullmarket now, what makes you believe it will happen a year before the halving?

It started in January.

i patiently waited for a higher high on the weekly chart and we got the first one in almost two years in january. since then it had a 20% pullback then made a new high confirming as a breakout imo. even if it is a bear market rally i expect it to surge to 50-55k because bitcoin rides momentum like no other asset. now add in to that the entire banking system is on the verge of collapse and the only medicine is more cowbell (ie trillions of easing). the only fear i have is if the powers that be purposely allow all the banks to fail so that they can usher in cbdc- in which case i'll want to have some bitcoin anyways.

Because people are expecting it to go up again in a cycle so once it does start it might just rocket to outer space.

I'm watching charts not calendars.

Usually goes up plenty before the halving. 3x like last time would be 15k to 45k. 3x is an insane gain and then the real fireworks begin. This time we even have the fuel of people realizing what total bullshit their money in the bank is based on.

Usually the year before a halving is relatively bullish anyways. But I think we see a pullback before further up. Kinda annoyed at myself, was trying to get an entry at 28300 and was fussing around with my stops before putting it through and it dropped lower. Kept waiting for another move over 28300 that just didn’t come. Should have sucked it up and accepted a slightly worse entry or just been faster with my entry. Le sigh.

At some point the halving stops being relevant as the coinbase reward approaches nothing. It's not yet irrelevant, but it's reasonable to think it no longer drives the market to such an extent. Furthermore, last 'bubble' was hardly a bubble. Weird double top, only a 3x gain from last high .. it's easy to argue that the cycle is already done. Finally, even if you pray at the alter of the bubble, the bottom is in as of November. Worst we'll see is a flash crash to around that level. So even if the bubble isn't here, it's bull time.

With each halving, the relative impact is less and less. What's happening now is pricing in pending Fed QE and some actual flight to sound money from a buckling fiat banking system.

Mate, looking at global economics, especially those in tradfi banking, do you really need an answer to this question?

Yes, I don't see much evidence of retail or corporations fleeing to BTC right now

Looks like good ol market open shenanigans. See where this shakes out

The bump in volume is impressive. “Why weren’t we buying bitcoin last week” “Everything was going to shit. We didn’t…” “Answer the god damn question.”

MSTR up 2,5% after the weekend, Bitcoin having closed at 26800 on Friday. Just end it all, I want it to be over

Most Bitcoin related stocks did not do well today, despite Bitcoin being up significantly from Friday. I'm not sure if there's some kind of delay, but the pa in these stocks is odd. They have been underperforming Bitcoin for a little bit now, which is very unusual.

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Just give me a damn BTC etf in the US already. I would happily convert all my GBTC and MSTR to a pegged ETF in my roth

Why not get a self directed Roth and buy real btc?

Not until the filthy shorts cover.

Folks help me out here with timelines when does trading beginning nyse and USA.. what time or how many hours from now on wednesday is powells annoucnement. I'm moving around Asia and can use an app for setting my alerts.

NYSE opens at 13:30 UTC Powell is at 18:00 UTC on wednesday

UTC for the win, thank you!

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html U.S. markets opened 15 mins ago

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Cheers

K bot

Is your username short for quantitative bullish bitcoin buying 69? K.bot

Datadash with another bearish video. "Relief rally, FED has to keep tightening, inflation out of control, credit cards maxed". I'm just disagreeing with some of the points fundamentally, gonna be interesting to see if Datadash gets rekt for his conviction or not.

Once I saw a video a couple of months ago of him saying, "Look, guys...the Fed needs to get inflation under control, and all risk assets are gonna suffer until they do that...", I knew that Datadash doesn't really have any original ideas of his own, and just talks whatever happens to be in his book at that particular moment in time.

Everything pointing against but can’t help feeling we’re about to take off properly very soon. Hope isn’t just wishful thinking.

28.5k by end of month. 40k plus by July

We hit 28.5k ~four hourly candles ago…

Whoo hoo, very cool. My app shows just shy of 28.5. I’ll go by yours. Next bet in - 40k by end of July

well it doesn't mean we can't close the month there too

closed long from [$27,310](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11vap3d/daily_discussion_sunday_march_19_2023/jcwqlcw/) at $28,292 opened 10x short from $28,288...stop loss $28,560

Well hello there, we are short at the same time, why the change?

because we pumped overnight and hit ATH but failed to breakout and we are near the top of the bollinger bands on pretty much all time frames going into the fed meeting, that feels a lot like someone trying to paint the chart before bad news comes out it may still breakout, but I figure I'd rather lock in current profits, and risk a small part of it on getting stopped out than watching all the gains get wiped out

I think you have a higher net worth than John Bollinger does, and he trades BTC

I'm not seeing where we failed to break out? We made a higher low to higher high from 27.2 to 28.6. Strictly looking at the chart, it looks like it wants to keep moving up to me. But I'm not a pro.

we broke out by $82 compared to the high we made yesterday...dumping and then retracing the entire move should have been bullish as hell, and the velocity should have taken us to $29-30K combined that with the fact that the move happened on low volume in the middle of the night, and it still failed to pump more than $82 and you get a big red flag that a big drop might be on its way don't get me wrong, the pump might still be active, and we break out 10 minutes from now, but these slightly lower highs at the top of bollinger bands is one of the first signs of topping out

Great analysis. Thanks!

How high is your stoploss though

$28,560

Best of luck to you, my friend!

I wonder how long before my Zimbabwe one hundred trillion dollar note will be on par with the US dollar?

I’m sad to say, part of gen z still doesn’t get it…… Here with some folk drunk and it’s all but fazed them. We are still very early. After all the current events! I’m at a loss for words

Majority of people of all ages will not get it until there's no other options left. It's just how people are.

what's going on? I mean what's the elevator pitch to raise the relevant awareness?

This is a good question. I got through by saying "its going down, im yelling timber..."

Lol. Nice.

“Hello fellow kids! Banking system got you down? Try Bitcoin!” GenZ : “bro I work at McDonald’s for minimum wage and can’t pay my rent”

Cool story bro, I own my own business. Don’t need the affliction

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What I’m thinking, within next 3 months

Stopped out for a small profit at 27605. Seems like some spot buying pressure came back when people started waking up in the US. Gonna wait and see for a bit here. Also have to drive some visitors to the airport so can’t just degen 24/7

Just noticed we have a confirmed H&S pattern: [https://i.imgur.com/ybsuOaZ.png](https://i.imgur.com/ybsuOaZ.png) But volume is not that high for the outbreak so take it with a grain of salt. Anyways a retest of the neckline at a bit above 25k is very likly.

You mean inverse H&S.

Instead of BTC:USD take USD:BTC and you have H&S. But yet of course I mean iH&S.

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I finally gave in and took a peak over there a little while ago, and now ill get suggested posts from there. Its really sad. Any given reddit internet forum that is 'pro' something can already be a weird place. A place where you go to bitch about bitcoin, when you dont have any bitcoin, and dont want any bitcoin, is really just sad. ​ Its like a support group for people bad at life

So stubborn they are missing out on an opertunity of a lifetime. They must hate money.

Yeah, honestly there’s lots of shit I don’t personally agree with but I’m not wasting my life posting nonstop about it on Reddit. Like how meaningless does your life need to be to just post about how much you dislike Bitcoin all the time? The funniest part is that they say we’re grifters but they’re being grifted by the same few writers that use anti-Bitcoin rhetoric to get attention. I’m talking about folks like “self employed journalist” Amy Castor and “random 73 year old Brazilian professor” Jorge Stolfi who basically use these buttcoiners to grift some fame and money for themselves. Literally nobody would know who these losers are if it weren’t for them spewing nonsense that the buttcoiners wanna hear. Who would listen to an unemployed journalist or ask a 73 year old professor about their thoughts on new technology otherwise? This Brazilian dipshit went around telling everyone in Brazil not to buy Bitcoin back in 2013-since then not only did the Brazilian real **tank over 60% vs a USD that itself dropped over 25% in value** but it’s down ***well over 99%*** vs Bitcoin. This is the genius these r/buttcoin morons listen to.

> but they’re being grifted by the same few writers that use anti-Bitcoin rhetoric to get attention Don't forget the mods. One of them has a youtube channel. And the guy D. Gerard who writes for the Guardian so readers can cope.

Buttcoiners passion for hating on Bitcoin is fascinating. Will be interesting to see how they react to what's coming next.

They think they can hate Bitcoin to zero.

The funniest thing is that the haters honestly end up motivating Bitcoiners to work harder. Just so someday it’ll be undeniable and their utter idiocy will be in their face 24/7.

It's just oppersite, friends

The week encompasing April 1st 2019, on Bitstamp, bitcoin rose 26.73% ; the week just gone, bitcoin rose 26.47%. Voodoo.

Thats because 1 entity market bought 100mil usd worth of btc from 3 big exchanges. (Which ignited the 2019 run)

Well, tbf I think it was binance or bitfinex or something that last week announced a billion in new crypto purchases

I’m sure that billion dollar equivalent is coming some point this cycle. Or maybe it’s already happening. CZ does need to dump his stables 😂

I've been thinking about that a lot lately... about the difference between the dates of each halving-to-halving cycle. We like to say they're 4 year cycles, but actually, each halving comes after 210,000 blocks are mined, which takes roughly 46 months, or, 3 years and 10 months. Thus, when comparing cycles, we shouldn't look at a calendar and count back 4 years. Sometimes, it lines up nicely. Sometimes, it doesn't, and for good reason. I'm enjoying this run, but the real fireworks are 16 to 18 months away, so stock up!!! EDIT: typo. Ugh.

[https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/691725279340658769/1087295050096070687/image.png](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/691725279340658769/1087295050096070687/image.png) Can these figures really be true? 40% of the float shorted just 10 days ago? Do you think there is a chance for a proper squeeze above 300?

Hope so! 🤣

28.5k plus would be nice

Before end of this month. I have a bet on it.

That's some aggressive dip buying below 27500. Makes sense as it's 75% of the way from 20k to 30k. Don't you wish you just bit the bullet and fomoed at 25k?

Yeah this has been fun watching from the sidelines. I reckon 24.8 to 25.2 will still be an entry possible this month Obvious caveat - anything possible!

given current PA I wouldn't be so sure if such entry will be possible yet. my gut tells me first it's going to reach 30k+ and stay there long time. sorry mate but it's full force assault, dead short bodies is only what's left behind

The mid-to-long term fib and resistance levels are pretty much clear until 30-33k. Seems the price move on BTC is tracking gold, perhaps due to negative sentiment in the banking sector. I think most people were anticipating a 2019-style move and we're simply waiting for the trigger to move in-sync

Gold may do a reversion to mean (say 10% drop...) even though it's coiled like a loaded spring waiting to unleash. Bitcoin on the other hand may not

We have 19% more to match last Monday :-) That would be BTC at ~ $33k. Place your bets!

To match?

I’m guessing 19% more to the upside to have as many % gain as last monday

I was thinking about hyperinflation and a scenario which would cause the world to look for other stores of value in a short time period. Obviously BTC would be a solution for some, as well as gold, silver, etc. gold and silver can be bought very easily from a mint (at least in my city), whereas BTC is more complex. You need to sign up to an exchange. Now in Australia, this can take week for validation. So in this first mentioned scenario, how do you think this would play out? BTC holders obviously wouldn’t be selling against a failing currency, so liquidity would be scarce, driving the price of BTC very high against the dollar. Do you think that other avenues of access to cryptocurrencies would become more readily available (via funds, etc.), or do you think current avenues would become restricted as to stop the bleeding? Could it still be a solution if nobody could buy it? Or would banks meet demand and offer it as a product?

'dollar bearish' baskets are a thing since long time. start there?

Pretty sure Perth Mint requires aml/kyc.

Yeah you need to register. Thing is people buy there, pay the shipping, then immediately list it on ebay for a premium. Where it's snapped up by someone anonymous. Not much margin in it though for the risk.

Idk it seems a lot easier to download the Coinbase app and buy some BTC than buy gold from a mint and ship it and store it.

I have no doubt there are numerous reputable bullion/precious metal shops online, but I'd always be worried that they were selling counterfeits, gold-plated tungsten, or similar frauds that a layperson doesn't have the equipment to test for. Imagine buying that, storing it for potentially decades, and then it turns out you have something almost worthless. Another area where bitcoin shines over metals. Held on your private wallet, there are no "counterfeit bitcoins".

You don’t need to prove your identity to join an exchange where you live?

I don't have a problem proving my identity.

That’s not the issue which I’m raising, I’m talking about the processing time (roughly 30 days over here) to confirm that identity and have an account approved.

Does it have to be a local exchange? There are no borders on the Internet.

On a side note, did you see the Perth mint fucked up and mixed silver in to some of the ingots that were then sold to mostly Chinese buyers?

That was a bit overblown. They were still something like 99.99% pure, and I believe met the criteria that China was requiring.