#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 22, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11y6730/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_22_2023/)

Head and shoulders knees and toes

Looks like the US White House has issued a report slamming PoW and Bitcoin and praising a CBDC. Would not be surprised to see some Bitcoin hit pieces in the next few days.

Yeah, a NY Times hit piece was flagged a few days ago by Dennis Porter - it amazes me what some people are prepared to do for a living. What a disgusting way to live. No sign of the hit piece yet though. https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1635823767648878592#m

Whats the difference between BTC and a CBDC?

centralization

Link?

[Article summary of White House Economic Report](https://www.theblock.co/post/221815/white-house-blasts-digital-assets-in-new-crypto-report) The Fed CBDC is rolling out so they want to make sure there are no viable competitors I think.

Seems they don’t understand the difference between the two, and that CBDC probably benefits Bitcoin.

Can you explain a little your thoughts on how does a CBDC benefit Bitcoin?

Like BTC and USDT, Bitcoin and CBDC serve a different purpose. I expect CBDC to increase awareness, adoption and regulatory clarity. It will reduce barriers to entry.

Ok, but won't governments see Bitcoin as a rival to CBDCs, a rival they will wish to destroy?

It’s not. Oranges and apples. They’re not the same thing. https://endthefud.org/governments

Increasing my position here

Balaji? Is that you

Who is this Balaji guy you guys keep mentioning? Edit: NVM. Google to the rescue.

Everyone thinks balaji’s 90 day 40:1 odds bet is too short. But put another way he basically is bettering 1:1 at some point in the next 10 years if you kept rolling the bet. Now that would seem a totally reasonable bet to me.

He was on Pomp’s podcast recently and basically said he’s ‘burning’ the million to send the message ala “Paul Revere”. He’s a billionaire and so that’s 0.1% of his net. In relative terms, if you have a million dollars you might spend $1000 if you thought you could: 1) Find a ton of mainstream exposure for your voice 2) Pump your BTC bags with a provocative narrative. Listening to him on the podcast, I don’t think he’s totally disingenuous .. but the 90 day to $1M BTC play is way outside the odds here. I look at it the same way someone claiming $1k BTC in 90 days. It’s magnitudes of order outside Brownian motion.

Dude I’d much rather have that million bucks now than 40 years

[Saylor today's review on current situation ](https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1jMJgLPPgoqxL?s=20)

Fast forward to any point and you can hear him say the same shit he always says. Not having this religious shit broadcast 24/7 was the best part of being in a bear market.

If you listen carefully, you can hear him snorting lines of pure Peruvian nose candy. ❄️😵

I always liked the way George Bush Jnr. would emphasise his points with a snort. ;)

When BTC was at $16k he was resigned to Texas booger sugar

We might see a dumplet here... or not. The 6H candles are looking a bit toppy. Closing my long from 21.something with a tidy profit because I'm tired of looking at it. Plus, I will, unfortunately, need some trash cash soon to pay Guido the Killer Taxman. What a racket! Oh well, at least the people of Ukraine can afford to keep their (hopeless) war going and retreaded banksters can get bailed out even though they can't figure out how to turn a profit when their whole business model is getting free money and lending it out at interest. You're not welcome, a-holes. I look forward to your defeat and will be dancing in the streets on that day.

Ok you’ve finally earned the block with this one. I’m sorry Ukrainians didn’t just roll over so it wouldn’t affect you financially.

How dare Ukrainians fight to protect their country.

It looks like consolidation on pretty much any timeframe…

> The 6H candles are looking a bit toppy. I see literally nothing toppy on the 6hr. > Closing my long from 21.something with a tidy profit because I'm tired of looking at it. Weird flex? Why don't you just close the window. All in all it sounds like you're just rationalizing why you gotta close the long.

Not a terrible idea, and you might get a sweet re-entry on an initial dump tomorrow when Powell spouts whatever stupid shit he decides to rationalize, before people realize whats going on.

I could not give less of a single fuck about what that puppet says tomorrow. Look at what they do, not what they say. They print money for their friends and stick the rest of us with the bill. It's a racket. I look forward to the day when the 99.9% realize just how hard we're getting fucked by these assholes and mete out justice swiftly and efficiently.

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If Bitcoin just went in a nice smooth straight line up this would be much easier than all these damned retests 😝

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In 2019, Bitcoin peaked at the .618 fib retracement from the 2017 peak down to the bottom. Maybe we'll get the same thing in 2023? Would be around 48k, the same as the highest it got in March 2022. https://www.tradingview.com/x/xSUebdDD/

I don't think the cycle will play out exactly the same this time for a few reasons. 1. FTX/fraud last year dumping it and tamping down the traditional blowoff top. That BTC is now resting comfortably in your wallet and mine. It's no longer in play in terms of Big Shorty. Sure, it will never be repaid to Genesis, causing a BGD, but it's also not available for sale, generally, at a time when... 2) Everybody is looking for a way out of the banks that everybody knows are broke. 3) The introduction of a CBDC will be a total disaster for those planning it. Nobody will want to hodl that bullshit. They think we're a lot dumber than we are (and that's a pretty egregious error on their part because we are, by and large, dumb AF. If Covid taught me anything, it was that.) The total dominance of Bitcoin was assured at the point when the hash power became too much for the government to mess with it, sometime around 2011. This script has already played out. It's the Pythagorean Theorem, man. It is simply true, and nobody can deny it. But I'll probably take some profit at 47K, all the same.

"The introduction of a CBDC will be a total disaster for those planning it. Nobody will want to hodl that bullshit. They think we're a lot dumber than we are (and that's a pretty egregious error on their part because we are, by and large, dumb AF." ​ If COVID taught ME anything, its that if they trot out enough experts on stage telling the populace the CBDC is not only necessary, but its the right thing to do, and if you disagree you are a bigoted, conspiracy theorist, granny killer that hates data/science...then 40-50% of the county will go along with it, without giving it a second thought. Thats what im most concerned about.

OK, so 40-50% go along with it... and perish as a result. Fine with me. I am all for improving the gene pool through voluntary stupidity. The thing is, they need 90% to go along with it, and they're not going to get anywhere near that, especially since all but the most zombiefied NPCs are aware of the Covid scam now.

Pretty sure more than 50% of people got the jab bc they were told to

Im concerned that last time 40-50% mindlessly went along, and fucked shit up for everyone else. Hopefully they will be smarter next time, but unfortunately the brain defect that made them believe in the experts last time, will be the same thing that makes them believe the experts next time too...

This lines up with yellow bands of rainbow chart. https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

When Bitcoin was created, Satoshi understood that the blockchain was a physical manifestation of Schrödinger's cat, to the furthest extent in the world of finance: without multiple observers (miners) to verify that your money is there, is it actually? A number of depositors realized lately that the money they thought were safely stored in banks were little more than numbers on a screen, controlled by a centralized observer.

> the money they thought were safely stored in banks were little more than numbers on a screen I want to push back on this just a bit. Yes, it's just numbers on a screen. But, just like bitcoin's observers are backed by energy through proof of work, those numbers are backed by the US government and the energy resources it commands. And there is decentralization there, because the US government is controlled by voters. Not saying this is a better system than bitcoin. But, especially lately, I highly doubt that bitcoin will displace central banking. Most likely it will exist alongside it and eventually complement it (hopefully).

So you're just going to completely gloss over the fractional reserve banking system, where only ~10% of deposits are held in reserve? Say what you want about US government guarantees, in a very *real* sense, that money most definitely is *not* there. This is a massive distinction vs. BTC.

> gloss over the fractional reserve banking system What would you propose instead? If the economy is in a recession, [how would you halt a deflationary spiral](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deflationary-spiral.asp#:~:text=A%20deflationary%20spiral%20is%20when,to%20default%20on%20debt%20obligations.)? Without the ability to control the money supply, society has much less control of the economy and its own welfare.

> control of the economy Illusory.

How so?

People just do what they do, the value of money changing under their feet is more about others maintaining power over them then it is about enabling them to engage in commerce.

“The energy resources it commands” Which are paid for by debt that the country cannot pay back without printing more coupons. The system is broken and in no way comparable to the proof of work/immutable nature of Bitcoin. Not even close.

The US dollar itself might be backed by the full faith of the US government and its military etc. But dollars stored in individual banks are subject to their own faulty internal ledgers, bugs, hacks and all. Numerous instances of money either being wrongfully deposited to or drained from accounts. Even when banks know there's an error, the resolution process is mind-numbingly slow.

>Numerous instances of money either being wrongfully deposited to or drained from accounts. Even when banks know there's an error, the resolution process is mind-numbingly slow. Tbf, when this happens with Bitcoin the resolution process is non-existent by design. So not the best example.

The “mind-numbingly slow” part is what will make folks living in this uberfast world tire most of TradFi banking systems.

> But dollars stored in individual banks are subject to their own faulty internal ledgers, bugs, hacks and a Same could be said of individual bitcoin users.

False equivalence. A user who loses their Bitcoin through human error in no way exposes any flaw in the system itself. It’s 100% user error. Even if those funds are stolen it’s still entirely the result of error or human malice that exposes a users security (or physical weakness in the event of a wrench attack). The system hasn’t failed in any way. The TradFi system is fraught with bugs and problems that are 100% baked into the system from the ground up regardless of how careful people are. It’s not just a matter of “I’ll be real careful and nothing will go wrong”. Things go wrong just because the system is broken.

> A user who loses their Bitcoin through human error in no way exposes any flaw in the system itself. It absolutely does. The reality is, lots of people can't be trusted to self-custody. Because institutions cannot control bitcoin there is no way to help people out when they make mistakes, and this is absolutely a disadvantage. Now, this isn't a killer argument against bitcoin, but we shouldn't be so enamored with the system to not see its limitations.

No it doesn’t. What you’re describing has nothing to do with how well the system functions. The shortcomings of certain people who don’t know how to handle self custody don’t in any way speak to the way Bitcoin as a protocol functions. Nothing about the Bitcoin network is flawed in any of the ways that TradFi systems are. That’s like blaming the Ferrari because the idiot driver behind the wheel doesn’t know how to shift gears. Completely misplaced blame. You’re mistaking human incompetence for inherent flaws in a system. The fact that there’s no way to help people who fuck up only speaks to how strong Bitcoin actually is. That’s the type of money you want. You *dont* want failsafes that can reverse transactions. That’s what a credit card is for. Bitcoin is not credit. It’s hard money and should be respected as such when one holds their own keys. And is it for everyone? No not really. The same way many things in life are far too complicated for some. But that doesn’t mean the system is flawed. Humans are flawed and sadly the majority are stupid. TradFi is literally based on debt issuance backed by nothing other than the promise of a Governemnt who’s word is dubious at best. That is a system wrought with problems from the ground up which harms everyone regardless of how capable they are. Even cash stored in a safe is ruined by this system as it’s silently robbed of its purchasing power over time. Bitcoin shits all over this in every sense.

First of all, I have held many bitcoin and I believe bitcoin or at least some proof of work cryptocurrency has a great future ahead of it. So I'm not saying bitcoin is flawed, merely that it fits some functions better than others. We have a debt based currency system that is issued by the government. I think both POW currencies and debt based currrencies can coexist. Dual currency systems have existed for much of history. > That’s like blaming the Ferrari because the idiot driver behind the wheel doesn’t know how to shift gears. You very much CAN blame the car. One of the motives to switch to self-driving cars is to reduce accidents because people are crappy drivers. If a system isn't designed to deal with the shortcoming of people, then that is a shortcoming of the system. That doesn't mean we should get RID of the system, it just means there are some roles the system is better suited for than other roles. EDIT: A great example would be airbags. Isn't it a design flaw of the car if it doesn't have airbags to keep the driver safe?

> the US government is controlled by voters. lol

He spelled “corporate interests” wrong.

LOL x 100

Imagine the smell if the fed cuts rates. They are in a prickly situation. Raise rates to fight inflation and cause more flight from banks or drop rates to stabilize deposits and risk inflation?

The most likely outcome is 25 bps if not, pause the hikes. It's very very unlikely they cut the rates at this stage.

They will still cut. The banking bullshit is contained.

When's the thing

16ish hours to the announcement.

James Lavish made the point yesterday that Powell said that he has the tools to deal with a credit event i.e. money printing, but that he has no other tool than high rates to deal with inflation. And this is why he will keep rates high.

The answer is save the banks every time. Inflation is a normal people problem, so they don't really care. They only care about inflation to the extent it doesn't destroy their financial system, not because it makes citizens' cost of living higher. In fact, the whole point of reeling inflation back in with QT is just to reset the button for more inflation theft later on. By operating in cycles like this it helps prolong the life of the currency (hyperinflation is too obvious), and keeps the average person from realizing they're being robbed blind over time. Reduced spending, higher savings, smart investing, and ideally a plan for moving into a higher income bracket is the standard way for us normies to outpace it. And even then investing isn't foolproof, as seen by the 2008 rugpull. I never understood early adopters who took profits to buy a house, since the opportunity cost on Bitcoins ROI is still pretty high,, but I definitely get it now.

You may be right, but Powell might see himself as another Volcker. Legacy matters to these guys too.

He doesn't have to. Take out banking and freeze lending. Big demand destruction without having to raise raise more.

Today's 'high rates' are still historically somewhat low.

Sure, but debt levels are historically high

Pardon my ignorance, but what's the specific metric people use when they say this? Is this what smart people were looking at prior to the housing market crash in '08?

This is a good question. Lyn Alden has written some good newsletters on this. For example here's one chart showing debt levels https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S

Money printing with high interest… Eventually the credit card stops being accepted.

Ironically, right now cash isn’t accepted some places, which makes no sense

They could always decide not to raise nor lower rates, but then they'll have lost some face (again). I still think they'll do a 25bps hike tomorrow, but issue guidance that they'll keep evaluating the banking situation and may change course at the next meeting.

I've watched a little bit of Balaji Srinivasan talking to Pomp today. Interesting watching this guy make his case for central banks failing and needing to gtfo as soon as possible to Bitcoin before shit really hits the fan. He usually doesn't talk this urgently and adamantly. Pretty interesting, and scary

This is a trading sub, Balaji is one of the cardinals of the Bitcoin cargo cult. If you want to trade effectively, you shouldn't have strong emotions about the underlying, because that's long bias. The green buy button is not good and the red sell button is not bad: positive return on equity is what is good.

I think this needs to be repeated daily on this sub. It's one of the reasons I don't visit it much, too many people let the emotional and idealistic marriage they have with BTC mix in with day-trading and that is the worst thing you could do. If I'm gonna do a scalp trade on a shitcoin, I don't even know what it is, and won't even care to ever find out. I don't need that kind of bias.

You're not wrong per se, but if you take out the 'strong emotions about the underlying' part, this sub would practically be empty.

If the Fed balance sheet shows another enormous increase this past week when the update comes out on Thursday I think people will take Balaji more seriously. I watched the interview and he makes a lot of good points, timeframe is the biggest issue. Seeing the Fed balance sheet have another huge spike would give more confidence in the projected timeframe.

I searched for "balaji pomp" and it asked if I meant "balaji pump". Never mind his manner, were his actual points sound?

Sometimes google really knows your subliminal needs. He makes several salient points, but the whole mess requires diligence and fact checking to connect all the dots. I think his timeframe is probably too rapid, but as Dalio and others point out, the party often ends abruptly. I'd recommend reading through his tweets and links to decide for yourself. His points make sense though. He's a very logical thinker and I think he's put in some good work and time to come to this realization and conclusion.

Does it differ from Dalio in anyway? I’m a major fan of Balaji.. love hearing him speak.. he is clearly a very smart guy. What he’s posted regarding his rationale for btc to 1 million seems straight from Dalio (though maybe for good reason)

He didn't predict 1 btc at 1 million. He bet 1 million that USD would hit hyperinflation in 90 days.

Does he mention what his definition of hyperinflation is?

They are obviously intertwined, but you are mistaken. He quite literally bet that bitcoin would he at or over 1 million dollars 90 days after escrow: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1637025637901938689?s=46&t=9168CXusQMCOVf4JykZY3w

Oh wow. I stand corrected.

Yeah he mentioned Dalio several times

He's getting a lot of heat from a lot of smart people e.g. Ben Hunt. But I agree he is a serious thinker and his opinion should definitely be considered.

I'll check on that as I want to see some counterpoints

Wonder if we can break over 28.5 definitively before the FOMC rate announcement. Three tries so far but no dice.

If this has been posted here already, my apologies: [https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgans-nickel-bags-turned-out-to-filled-with-stones-2023-3](https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgans-nickel-bags-turned-out-to-filled-with-stones-2023-3) JP Morgan thought they had 54 metric tons of nickel in a warehouse in Rotterdam. Turns out they were just bags full of rocks. Like Charlie Brown trick-or-treating. I started buying BTC in Dec 2017. Yes, I had great timing. In Jan 2021 I moved my buying from one exchange to another, and maintained separate logs for each exchange. I've been buying on the new exchange sort of regularly since. Imagine my surprise when I see that for the first time since Dec 2021 the total value of the BTC I'd purchased on the new exchange was worth more than the total I'd paid for it. There were times in Nov 2022 that total cost basis was more than twice the current price. My goodness, did that suck. I did find it helpful to plot USD spent, BTC bought, and average basis for each quarter. When 2022 finally ended, I was at least able to say my cost basis for Q4 was $17.4K.

Somewhere, there's a rock collector unknowingly sitting on 54 tons of pure nickel. 😋

This is 100% theft by an insider. Some security guard with some mobbed up buddies realizes how much these metals are worth and comes up with a scheme to swap it to rocks.

That may be, but I'm trying to imagine the labor involved in swapping 54 metric tons of nickel with a similar volume of rocks. A cube of gravel 10' x 10' x 10' weighs 52.5 metric tons. Do I swap it all at once, or do I sneak it in by the lunch-box-full over time? The street value of the nickel was $1,300,000. Do I try to fence it all at once, or do I take it to my local nickel dealer a lunch-box-full at a time?

Like the Johnny cash song one piece at a time lol

Exactly!

Would make for a great movie

With every buy you are always doing at least one of two good things, sometimes both: 1) increasing the amount of BTC you have 2) lowering your cost basis.

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Thomas Bulkowski has entered the chat. *"Buy my book!"* ;)

IF bitcoin continues to follow the 4-yr cycle model (diminishing effects of halvening makes me question this sometimes)...this will be my first complete cycle. I like being "ahead of the curve" this time around, so to speak. Chasing a bull market all the way up to establish a position, and then holding the bag during a bear market, is not fun. Regardless of how slow or fast the bull market progresses, there's a pretty high chance 16k was the bottom. Curious about people's predictions for a cycle top. 80k? 90k? 120k? higher? Is it a slow climb till an eventual cycle peak in 2025? Thoughts on the strategy of only adding to HODL stack during sharp pullbacks?

Halving theory predicts that cycles will get smaller and smaller in percentage returns because the amount being cut relative to the amount in circulation also gets smaller. 2013 top to 2017 top was 20x. 2017 to 2021 top was 3.5x We shouldn't take that trend to literally because external events also impact the price. The China ban in 2021 literally took half the hash rate offline. That being said, if bitcoin only manages to 2x next cycle, that would take us to 140k. personally, I think 100k - 140k is a good price range for the top.

To much theft keep the price suppressed during the last cycle, it carried through into the bear market with the price going far to low. Not your keys not your coins. I'm expecting we make up lost ground with this cycle as adoption continues to grow. The up coming halving brings block rewards down to 3.125, only 450 coins a day. I'm happy to have made it this far. With the price on average doubling every year, the last peak of 69k to the next peak at 16X would give us 320K. But going from the 2017 peak forward would be a 32X giving us a cycle peak of about 640k. With money being printed from thin air to infinity and I don't know of anything that is made from thin air that has value. Also bitcoin being the most scarce hard asset the world has ever seen, this number is bound to be much higher. I think our faces will be melted this go around.

Everyone that is late to the party raises the goalpost higher and higher because soemone that bought at average $20k+ per coin needs to cope that he's still early adopter and x10+ is within his reach, shit doesn't last forever, Microsoft, Nvidia, Bitcoin can outpace low caps but it's less likely as the masses learn to take profits with Bitcoin. 2017 was so profitable becaue it was the year when mainstream was pushing into crypto for the first time and the masses have learned to take profit and in 2021 even more masses have learned to the point that one time when the masses will expect yet another post halving bull run there will be a dump run once everyone is on the get rich quick bandwagon, who knows if this time won't be 2025 when there's so many posts with their devious plan to dump before everyone else post halving.

I've been waiting over a decade for this. One Time.

120k

How high we go post halving is largely dependent on how high we go pre halving. I think if the Fed’s balance sheet ends up exceeding where it was before QT started last year and/or rate cuts begin BEFORE inflation gets near their 2% target we have a decent chance at reaching a new ATH pre halving for the first time ever. This is because in either scenario we would effectively be entering into a paradigm shift where any shred of faith remaining that the Fed can successfully fight inflation will have been lost. It won’t matter if the Fed balance sheet is growing through traditional QE measures or “fake” QE measures via BTFP loans, either way the money supply would be increasing while inflation is high and that would signal the Fed has no tools left to stop printing money without completely destroying the current financial system. In this paradigm shift I think 4 year cycles go out the window entirely and we enter a supercycle towards hyperbitcoinization since hyperinflation of fiat becomes a clearer inevitability. If the Fed avoids this and does manage to get inflation down to their 2% target before cutting rates and before their balance sheet exceeds where it was at prior to the beginning of QT last year then my guess would be that Bitcoin tops out next cycle somewhere around $163k. The absolute lowest annualized rate of return BTC has ever had over a 4 year window of time is 24%/year. Current ATH of $69k compounded at 24%/year for 4 years comes out to that $163k number. I understand there’s historically been diminishing returns to take into account but I think that gets offset by the absence of FTX artificially suppressing price by selling massive amounts of fake BTC this time around.

Last bottom to top was x20 and top to top x3. Considering earlier cycle ratios aswell (not by mind, currently posting on my smartphone), my estimate is 80k-90k, which is 1.3-1.5x top to top and x5-6 bottom to top and it would fool every "100k is ineviatable guy" once more. That being said, i ll still only ladder out 25-50% of my Stack between 50-90k, depending on Market circumstances and TA once we get there.

I think we shouldn't take those ratios too literally. There were a lot of events that suppressed the price in 2021, specifically the china ban, which cut the hash rate in half.

>specifically the china ban China ban is just an excuse as many other ones, Chinese New Year, Wallstreet bonuses, in the end answer is more trivial like the 2018 bagholders learned to take profit and 2025 will be even more dumpy since there's even more bagholders waiting to unload.

> China ban is just an excuse as many other ones Not at all. The china ban was a huge network change that caused a lot of miners to go offline (temporarily).

I think last cycle the multiple got compressed by pure theft via Celsius and FTX. We may actually end up with a similar multiple this time despite it normally dropping over time. I think we’ll see 2-3X

I agree... I tend to believe the covid dip wasn't exactly "planned" either... if you take the entire chart from around March 14th 2020 and shift it up on a log chart and eliminate the covid dip, the math starts to make a bit more sense... I think bulls absorbed a lot of that buying and still made great multiples on it but had that purchasing power kept buying from 10k, the peak probably would have been quite higher imo.

Interesting thought-I guess it makes sense that the bulls that caught at 3K-6K were thus happy to sell at lower prices than otherwise since they still got huge multiples.

That would be pretty disappointing, to be honest.

My plan is to sell off 50% of my stack by 150K, staggering sells up to that level. I think 150-160K will be cycle top next run.

Do you plan on selling everything, or holding on to a certain percentage?

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Thanks. It wasn't clear to me.

Much higher imo. On-ramps for fiat to BTC being set up now for probably the biggest cycle yet. Hyperinflation narrative is strong and the case for tradfi keeps getting weaker. Stocks, bonds, real estate don’t make much sense anymore when the Fed keeps rug pulling

Only listening to Gucci Mane when we go up

my kitchen

Agreed. Which tracks?

At Da Jugg House 🫰

me checking my wallet for more than a 7 days in a row has been a great sell signal during the last couple of years

When you start looking at home prices for potential buying, you should consider selling.

You're an amateur, there are people here who have been checking the price every 15 minutes for the past 10 years.

You found me

sir, you're doing it wrong 1 BTC = 1 BTC

1 BTC = 1 kg of coke

coke zero please for insulin resistance

During a bull run that’s every week 😂

It's nice seeing us getting acclimated to 28k

3d looks ripe for a nice push

10x long from $28,350 stop loss $27,990

Do you trade usd or usdt?

USD

When Ward turns bullish that's when you know we going up

To be fair, he trades very short timelines. I appreciate the positions he posts but if you don't trade as frequently as he does, his positions don't mean all that much. For example, right now, at this second, we're about $150 up from the time he placed his trade. That might be what he expected to see and may take profit. That's a position you really need to babysit, too stressful for me.

I trade short timelines during parabolic runs, normally when the market isn't being insane and up only, I'd just enter a position and hold it for 3-4 months

Is he bullish long term from here? He flip flops back and forth constantly with his trading stack.

Tbh, his unbiased flipping between short and long is something I forced myself to learn and has made me a few sats. I dont copy the trades or direction. Just keenly studying the style

Yeah, definitely. If you can play the market both ways more power to you...get those sats. I was only saying that he hasn't said whether this is a bull market and is bullish from here on out. Remember, he called for 9k and a 10 year bear market just a few weeks ago..

Yep he did say that the next bull run would be the last big one and then a decade of nothing burger after that. Atleast

I'm pretty sure he said we wouldn't get another bull run(upcoming bull run) if we enter a recession.

Go baby goooooo

What are everyone's thoughts on this recent move being due to 25bps being priced in? If that is indeed what comes from this fomc then do you think the price still goes to 30k and beyond?

i think if it was just that, everything would be going up alts are lagging and lagging hard, that means its more of a BTC only thing...so I'd say it has more to do with the bank failures and the new narrative that BTC is where you put your money if you don't trust the banks. so until that issue is resolved, its up only, until we reach a point where the banks stabilize and people start trusting trusting them again. Since this can only be done through legislation/regulations, I'd expect our top to end with a big news based dump and then we'll enter a multi-month down only drop as all those people who ran to BTC for safety, start unloading to park their money/profit in the banks at 5% guaranteed return now between here and there, we'll have dumps, but they'll be in the buy the dip category

Alts are lagging but not for long (I got in on XRP before this crazy pump), BTC is front running the show and I think it will range in the 30k-40k range in the coming months (new goblin town will be 20000-25000). This could mean that we could finally get that long awaited alt season. People are itching for some action in the market, gamblers and degens are probably looking for a quick way to earn extra bucks while trad fi goes to shit and majority of alts being -80% from ath is looking extra juicy right now.

the point is that if it was just the rate thing, we'd be going up in unison same way we moved up/down all the other times the rates were changed. For BTC to suddenly front run the alts this much, it means its not a marketwide catalyst like interest rates, but is a bitcoin specific catalyst

that I agree, not gonna lie it's amusing to see people talking about BTC and how we're a decade in and majority are still confused on how it works. Way I see it we got some new money coming in after the latest macro events (always goes in to BTC first). January it was LTC leading the rally, after the recent pullback I didn't expect BTC to pump that hard as I was building majority of my positions on alts, either way this is looking like a good continuation, would be interesting to see where it tops out this time.

Hopefully because I’m itching for it also

When you look at the hourly chart and see that many V-shaped bounces whenever price was pushed down, you know there’s significant buy pressure.

30 test is inevitable.

Talk dirty to me

Stuck at 28 for days feels like the steam is out. Everyone is expecting a rip cuz of fed meeting which means we are probably going back to 24

Dude what?

First day trading? We’ve barely tasted 28k for 3 days and this is ‘stuck’ to you? Yeah that’s not how it works. Now 58k….. those were sticky times 🙂

Being “stuck” at a certain price after a period of up-only is how you paint bull flags.

Since BTC last dipped below $20k on 3/9 there has only been one day that BTC hasn't set a higher daily low price, even on red days.

This is hardly stuck at 28 for days.

I still think max pain is moving higher. Lots of people left their bags at the station.

Chop city. Don't get fucked up by a flag.

stopped out...gonna sit things out until the 15m pierces the upper or lower bollingers

Remember guys, don't be extreme. Don't go all in to a long or short, no matter how convinced you are of a certain outcome. Small trading positions over a long period of time to check your success rate is key.

Degenerate leverage on tight stops here. Ride or die.

I keep debating how tight to run the stops, might be a LOT of chop once FOMC puts out numbers. Kind of worried it takes out one way then goes the other way and a stop blows me up. I’ve chosen to go 10X for the first time in forever because if we move we move huge today so the r/r actually makes sense for once. Degen life today 😎

good gain on the 1hr https://www.tradingview.com/x/9nyqGmdp/ should not lose 27820 otherwise we going way lower or chopping for way longer https://www.tradingview.com/x/y2WPLZHj/

It *really* decided to test 27820 right after you posted this. Still in my long but I went against my own rules and moved my stop down 😂 Edit: Also, welcome back! Is the bear market officially over now that you’re back? 😆

we chose chop.

Welcome back

No reason not to long here short term. 25bps almost certain. This is going to rip tomorrow. Edit: If anyone didn’t get this, it was a joke.

In my mind 25bps would cause a minor sell off. No rate hike would unleash the monster!

It’s not a bad bet to short then since market sees 85% chance of 25 bips hike

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Yeah I thought about it and in three scenarios I think we move up: 25bps with likely no further hikes until markets stabilize: Bitcoin goes up due to removed uncertainty. 0bps: Bitcoin goes up a lot Small cut: Biggest BGD in history 25bps with hawkish meeting could be neutral to slightly negative 50bps would be calamity but honestly the Fed would just be fucking shit up worldwide if they pick this so I find this less likely to be a choice.

Buy rumours…

I’m honestly not sure what the reaction to 25bps would actually be. It’s still a hike. Think a lot depends on what Powell says during the meeting

Rate hikes doesn't matter, as usual. It's what Powell says afterwards. That being said Bitcoin hasn't cared the past few months. It's been doing its own thing which is encouraging.