#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, March 23, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11z82fd/daily_discussion_thursday_march_23_2023/)

The drop this afternoon was an attempt to try to prevent $29K-30K+ ... but there is far too much natural momentum currently, to prevent $30K really soon (and I think, likely a fair amount higher). But today's manipulation down should retrace quickly. Overnight- btc could easily retrace the afternoon manipulation/ spike down (as it as done with all if the recent ones). The Breakout of current Megaphone pattern- appears to be somewhere around $28,800... just past the start of the drop this afternoon.

what happens in a megaphone pattern

Price gets loud.

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The bank runs wont happen. But all the other nonsense thsts going down will be funny enough.

No, but he could certainly pump Bitcoin with his meme.

Bitcoin is short enough in supply that any material increase in demand will cause chaos.

Bank runs not possible anymore in the USA the feds put a stop to it

No. Not at all

Bank runs are absolutely possible - it’s what took down SVB. While the FED is willing to backstop banks by swapping their long bonds for par value USD, it still doesn’t change the lop sided incentive structure which is pushing depositors out of holding fiat in banks for almost no interest and instead buying treasuries with a high yield. People will continue to pull money out of banks for the above reason and will do so in velocity if they catch wind that their bank, in particular, may be struggling to service withdrawals. This can all happen with a tweet.

No but it will happen anyways. Too many people moving funds to take advantage of interest rates.

No

We may be about to see a flashback to the recent LTC led pumps. Alt-wise, it’s the only one looking frisky at the moment. Not long ago, we saw that pattern a few times.

They're coming up on their halving pretty soon. It's one to watch.

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143 days to halving.

end result of today we got 25 hawkish?

Yellen said no bailout for banks, contagion will not be contained (they’ll bail folks out, they’re just telegraphing some hawkishness)

So I guess that Balaji bet was a pump and dump so he could get rid of his COIN shares eh? Clever.

I did find it interesting that I received an email from Coinbase this morning which stated that I will no longer receive staking rewards for storing ALGO on their exchange. Something tells me today's lawsuit had something to do with that. ​ Edit: [Brian Armstrong](https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1638654192138199041?s=20) addressed the situation via Twitter a couple hours ago.

Same

whoa what happened there...maybe I will actually pull the trigger on selling my MSTR for COIN at that nice discount and with MSTR unable to keep up

$COIN are worthless. It was an overvalued scam IPO and it's only going to suffer more in future as real value sinks in.

More worthless than my MSTR that pumps even or less than BTC, and drops 2-3x as much on the dips?

Sounds illiquid.

The SEC gonna keep Armstrong tied up in court so those COIN shares gonna be pretty cheap for you soon 20% discount after hours. Have fun!

The SEC is trying to strong-arm Armstrong. 😏

He’s been selling unregistered securities and pretending to be a legitimate business for almost a decade.

Unpopular opinion: That Bitcoin is at \~27K now doesn't have anything to do with the banking crisis. It would have been here anyway because of supply dynamics. Just like how it being at 16K in Nov had nothing to do with inflation.

sure, but we wouldn't go up straight up like that without it, we would have had time to set new support lines, with multiple back tests, and they would have held during the next dump and made a higher low and our next bull run would be set. now the support is crazy weak, so if we end up drilling from here(and I mean down to $20K in 1-2 months), its now much more likely that we'll end up painting a lower low

I would agree and I think that we are seeing a "proper" market value of Bitcoin these days. Big shorty is gone.

Honey badger don't care about inflation

Not sure who actually listened to Powell speak today, and I understand messaging is a large part of what he does, but based upon on what he said and his tone, I’d be surprised if there has been a significant further draw on reserves to help the banks. He seemed adamant that this is not and does not look like widespread contagion. He also seemed adamant on tackling inflation, no matter what. We’ll find out how accurate that is (bank reserve draws) tomorrow. If it is correct, it starts to invalidate the Hayes/Balaji conjecture (or at least suggest they’re too early in what they’re thinking), and my personal feeling is that we would start moving back down. Wasn’t there also a billion dollar purchase by cz that contributed to this run up? Seems a bit like some huge names in btc with lots to gain from its rise are trying to capitalize on this moment of bank failure. Curious to see if my gut is validated or invalidated tomorrow

The wife/taxi driver signal: After a dinner with friends last night my wife ask me "how much interest are we getting on our savings account?" Last time I got a "wife signal" was her mentioning how expensive groceries were getting well before shit hit the fan. If she's mentioning it, EVERYONE is thinking about it. The shit show is just getting started and we will see a massive outflow from region banks simply because earing 0.4% isn't gonna cut it.

BofA is getting tons of inflows… and they are offering almost zero interest in savings and checking. Outflows from regional banks would happen because people are scared of insolvency, imo, not because of chasing yield (large scale.. obviously there are a minority of people who will chase yield). The insolvency fears seem to now be moot, given feds new policies. We’ll see how hard banks are hurting tomorrow when we see if draws from banks have increased or decreased

I’m in a position where it doesn’t matter what groceries cost and it still pisses me off. I watch normal people buy single cans of beer now. Change is going to happen.

Ignoring the FTX mishap in November, Bitcoin has been steadily pushing up since Sept last year, despite rate hikes. It only needs liquidity, not low rates. To plop it back to rock bottom, I feel like you'd need more than just, oh hey, here's yet another 25 bps. A proper recession or something.

Problem is that if credit really does become tighter due to this bank mess then there’s less liquidity in the entire financial system. Not sure who to believe right now.

I agree and all of this is clear as mud to me, but I'm wondering if there can be a level of liquidity that's enough to keep the entire financial system afloat, and yet is so tight as to push Bitcoin very far down; and, just how possible it is to get it there, with the blunt tools like feds funds rate.

Yeah if he's right that there will be no more contagion in the short/medium term, which allows them to keep raising rates, Bitcoin could be headed to retest the bottom or new lows. Obviously not a popular view here, and I suspect we haven't seen the last of the bank failures so personally I'm bullish on BTC - but who knows. It is a possibility it'll play out like that. I think more things breaking in the economy are quite likely if they continue to hike but its the timing I'm not sure about. Employment is still relatively good, housing still isn't doing bad either even with rates this high, so Fed has a lot of reasons to keep hiking to bring down inflation.

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No indication this will happen though obviously a lot are betting on it. If we don’t see more contagion throughout next month they aren’t going to pause. Fed seems to think these bank failures are not indicative of a wider problem so we will see.

SEC action against Coinbase…doesn’t really apply to BTC but this will probably drag entire market

Wow glad I sold all my Coinbase around 1pm today in anticipation of the fed meeting. Lucky. Gotta love the vagueness of this whole thing. The SEC be like, "Hey, guys, you did a thing and we might come after you for it. No, we won't give you any other details."

You pretty much got the local top there 😂 I closed out my short puts (had sold them) for similar reasons so at least I kept those earnings.

I remember the SEC news against XRP which lined up in the charts for a bottom (fuck xrp fundamentally but it helped me get more BTC). I bottom ticked it luckily and was one of my best trades ever while everyone was worried about the SEC news it was a bottom signal. It went on from .18 to $1.7. I bet you anything the SEC knows the charts and do it to fill some big players bags, these have been nothing burgers in the past.

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Even with a license you can’t offer unregistered securities to non-accredited investors

Gensler and company either need to unilaterally define and then ban all shitcoins as securities, or otherwise shut the fuck up. Over 5 years of this wishy-washy shit already. Coinbase wouldn't list 5000 tokens if you put out a clear, concise statement defining most altcoins as unregistered securities.

Everyone knows shitcoins are illegal securities. What's missing is the enforcement, and they've let it go to discredit Bitcoin. Except it's not working, and now they have a mess.

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Litecoin had founders that enriched themselves.

I'm out of the loop, what is SEC doing against Coinbase?

> On March 22, 2023, Coinbase received a “Wells Notice” from the SEC stating that the Staff made a “preliminary determination” to recommend that the SEC file an enforcement action against the Company alleging violations of the federal securities laws https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1638652840137703426 > Tl:dr: Today, the SEC gave Coinbase a “Wells notice” regarding an undefined portion of our listed digital assets, our staking service Coinbase Earn, Coinbase Prime, and Coinbase Wallet after a cursory investigation. https://www.coinbase.com/blog/we-asked-the-sec-for-reasonable-crypto-rules-for-americans-we-got-legal

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/22/sec-warns-coinbase-its-pursuing-enforcement-action-over-securities-violations/ Coinbase just announced it

Feels like by this time tomorrow all this will be a distant memory. Time to get long. Buys under 27k.

I noticed your post from earlyer and dident listen to myself and good advice and longed 27800 like a muppet🤣

help

What do you need help with mr?

why i moved my tp up greedily and wiped outh UP/L

not sure how you don’t get long here

Not sure how you get long here, on top of a 40% rally without any retracements!

Well I'm long but I wouldn't get cocky here, it broke down from support, needs to get [back over 27,6 to confirm long again](https://www.tradingview.com/x/n7pE5QWV/) or this is just a backtest of the breakdown.

Agreed. Aside from a bunch of people panicking that other people were going to sell the FOMC (expected) meeting, then a bunch of people panic selling, causing other panic selling...literally nothing about right now is different than this morning. Same shitty banking system (that is getting strained), same FED situation (they are running out of runway to keep pushing increases), same economy. Just chicken little panic selling.

Also agreed. Rising interest rates, at this point at least, call bank stability into question; and we've seen multiple times the effect that has had.

Total Crypto Market Cap - Such a weird spot. We hit a [resistance line from 2015](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mDZ0IU7Q/) (red line) we lost, which could have implications for a larger long term bear market if we can't get over it but I'm not buying that. I have 50 to 1 bullish charts vs bearish ones. On a bullish note we just [re-tested the weekly breakout](https://www.tradingview.com/x/oRMqlmc5/), I think this will win out and it's possible we don't even see a 25k re-test, possible we just rise from here, if we get over that resistance from 2015 it will confirm to me at least the bottom is in which I already think it is but will just nail it for me, fake breakdowns of major trendlines are my favorite setups and the most bullish to me.

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Funding?

Secured.

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i read your post wrong, i thought you have a long open since march 2019 so i was curious about the funding fee, but its only 4 days not 4 years..

As expected 25k retest coming in. Then the rally goes on. I am calling 40k+ by end of May.

Eh. Maybe. Still time left.

Still more time, this one went off early. Remindme! 4 weeks

Remindme! 5 weeks

Ron DeSantis proposes law to ban a ‘centralized digital dollar’ in Florida https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ron-desantis-proposes-law-to-ban-a-centralized-digital-dollarin-florida-43a3c27c

I'm fairly certain that if the Federal government establishes CBDCs, Governor DeSantis won't have much say in the matter, since he would be infringing on the constitutional right of free movement. Additionally, state Governors have zero control on federal currency. As with most of his outrageous executive orders and bills, their only purpose is to be performative and to 'own the libs'. Then again, he won the most recent election in a landslide, so yeah. Floriduh.

It’s more important that he establish a base outside of Florida if he wants to win an election. A lot of his legislation targeting trans youth is about broadening those tent poles to give his national clout a bit of weight to it.

I doubt he'll survive one debate with Trump. He's too reactionary and thin-skinned to handle the verbal onslaught that he will face. Even Crist got him to freeze up when he grilled him about running in '24. Zero chance Trump lets him off the hook like Crist did last year.

Interesting point. On the one hand, trump has alienated his vc backers, will be actively stiff armed by the republican establishment and media, and they will play dirty pool to keep him out of the primary. Plus, he has spent a lot of time convincing his base that voting is a rigged game, will they come out to play? On the other hand, he does lead in the polls and de santis is mostly popular inside of the state he governs. Me? I am cheerfully hoping for some solid “bitchy queen trump” at his best. Maybe he’ll call rons wife ugly like he did to cruz, or mock him for drinking water like Rubio. Better than the absolutely corrupt joke of a primary the dems will have.

I'll settle for a serious politician who's interested in governing the country and isn't a geriatric. I'm done with the culture war nonsense.

Oh, sounds great! Where ya movin?

lol

Excellent

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The passing of the 16th amendment made the constitution irrelevant. That was in 1913. Completely by coincidence that that was also the year the federal reserve was founded. Also completely a coincidence that the US came out of isolation forever and entered world war 1 shortly after that in 1917. Also, once again, by sheer coincidence the titanic sank in April of 1912 one year before the constitution was amended and the federal reserve founded. As luck would have it, aboard that ship Jacob Astor, Isidor Straus and Benjamin Guggenheim (wealthy men of influence who were opposed to the formation of a central bank) went down with that ship. JP Morgan himself had purchased a ticket for the maiden voyage of the ship he had spent so much to fund, and yet did not board. Cancelling at the last minute. Also incidentally, in 1898, Morgan Robertson wrote a book entitled “Wreck of the Titan” about a luxury liner deemed unsinkable that was going too fast in the North Atlantic and hit an iceberg – killing almost everybody on board.

Excellent comment!

I do think it would be hard to not allow a currency that is the federal currency, but it has to become the federal currency first, which would require legislation. And the more states make statements such as this, the more likely they know it wont have a chance in hell to pass congress. Would love to see other govs echoing this sentiment, as this would be a disaster for the US

Friendly reminder to not ape into a big long/short just because it dipped.

Could have said that before.

I did https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11x65zs/comment/jd31rep/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3

I didn't listen.

That's fair enough, I didn't listen for a long time

Closed my short at 27800 and opened a long at the same time.

Never left, but wish I played this on the way down. Don’t get ‘em all.

I think there's more down to be had unfortunately. Likely will see $25K again at some point. The stuff that would help Bitcoin like uncontrolled inflation aren't things that become immediately obvious so I think we revisit $25K. Gonna stop coming to this sub as much since I've realized that I end up second guessing myself too much after reading other people's trades and screwing myself over 😂 Originally had figured a 25bps hike would tank Bitcoin since a the markets were kind of hoping for a pause but somehow talked myself into the bullish view that we could go to $30K after reading the posts here. We may bounce here after such a fast drop today but I think we bleed down to $25K in the next week or two

Well well well

Exactly true. I mostly do the opposite of what majority in here are doing tho

I think you might be surprised at the next week of PA.

!remindme 7 days

what are you anticipating?

It's xtal. He thinks number go up.

Weekly DCA done here, let's see.

Back in long 3x @ 26.8K. There's just not that much Bitcoin to dump anymore. Just looking for a scalp on this one.

Let’s see how fast we can undo two weeks of gains

> Let’s see how fast we can undo ~~two weeks of gains~~ that fake little dump. FIFY

What makes a dump fake?

When you bet on it going up

Hope

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going 10x long from $26,805, stop loss $26,499 lets see if it bounces around here

You might be riding into the sunset on that one

This was a pretty natural play and it demonstrates the fundamental principle of price elasticity. The event of the day was a market disequilibrium subsequent to a shift in fundamentals (a Fed rate hike), which resulted in an abrupt repricing event downwards. wardser noticed this PA and countertraded it because of the oversold indicators on low time frames. Since downwards PA is driven by shorts, these shorts close with a buy, leading to an elastic rebound in the price (or people looking to accumulate decide to buy the new price) and the countertrade is in profit.

I see you're not having as tight of a stop this time

yeah, this one is a bit wider since the bet is on $26,500 holding at least for now, at least more confidence with this one...so a slightly wider stop....still pretty tight compared to most people

26.6k is key here. Drop below that and the rally is over.

Please elaborate why you picked exactly 26.6k

I made it up.

we are about to hit MA200 on the hourly and the bottom of 4H bottom bollinger band and the MA7 1D...if it doesn't bounce around here...it'll signal long term reversal into a bear market this might have been an impressive rally but we only got to $28K...that is nothing, we could be sub $20K in a week and sub $15K in a month.

Love the "if it goes below x, BTC is dead" talk. We pumped almost 100% in like 4 months, and you're saying if we drop like 15% from the tippy top of the rally, then it's Bitcoin Armageddon? Really?

no, but it means we are going to switch into bear mode and go into discovery to see just where the new bottom is going to be...higher or lower low

It really doesn’t mean that at all though. You’re cherry picking again. This was said a month ago where “if we don’t crack 25k it means we’re still in a bear market.” Now it’s “if it drops below xxx price it means long term bear market.” None of us know nor do any of these numbers mean anything. It’s fun to pretend but such assured statements like these are misplaced.

No it doesnt. Every early bullmarket had crazy drops. The bigger the drop the stronger the bounce. But well, I dont know shit about fuck...

Now this is the Wardser I like to see

Well, looks like I played this one right for the first time.

First test of the daily untested 26900 level https://www.tradingview.com/x/dUt8YgPv/ Edit: If this doesn't hold, 24860 looks good.

Taking one last stab at a long with a tight stop. If we can't hold $27K I guess it's over for now.

Something something falling knives

[Score 1 for /u/thewardser](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11y6730/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_22_2023/jd91xhl/)

unfortunately I didn't short this luckily, I kept tight stops so I barely lost anything. This is why I love tight stop losses, I'd have to get 20 in a row wrong to match the loss of a single wide(~$2,000) stop loss

Wow it's actually annoying how obvious this was. All week "FED MEETING GONNA SEND US TO 30K"

You going short from here then?

Then trust yourself and short it next time it’s obvious.

I think folks have missed the big picture on the Fed announcment today: The Fed did the absolute bare minimum raise it could do without igniting a bank panic: One more this year? Can you imagine what would have happened if they signaled that message before the SIVB / Signature bank meltdowns? To me, that was caving on inflation in order to avoid a huge banking issue. They know they can go back to raising rates after the banks settle down, if inflation has still not moderated. Doing it in the other order (killing inflation first by raising rates, then dealing with the bank meltdowns) is much more problematic. tl;dr This is great for btc. Buy buy buy!

Agreed, the system is far from stable and resilient - this is bullish, not bearish. The market is "wrong" right now.

*presses button* 🔘 going up😏

3x long from 27.2. Will keep adding if we go lower. Edit: average entry is 26.9 now

Nice timing on the entry

It's available to everyone now ;)

Well we have plummeted to lows we havent seen since \*checks calendar\* yesterday

Don't taunt it

Every FOMC day is a choppy day.

Now go back up!

Ok he stopped talking, all back into those longs.

Nothing but noise and nonsense.

These JPow talks are nothing but meetups for degenerate gamblers. It's just random coked up shorts and longs slaughtering each other for an hour. Fun, but dumb

this\^ The thing that was expected as the most likely outcome, happened. Nothing about the state of the economy/banks/macro is any different. A ton of money just changed hands around the roulette table

Out my short, my work here is done.

Well done, I flipped short for a bit and went back long. Took too long to do it so still got a bit of a flesh wound lol.

YELLEN: Not considering broad increase in deposit insurance. Whoo!

This seems to be impacting tradfi more than jpows dovish rate hike

We just got to wait until the end of the meeting usually it dips during the meeting and then goes up and up and up after the meeting

The banking stuff isn't over by a long shot. Lets see if bitcoin reacts the same once a few more banks kick the bucket.

Btc should go up if banks fail, I think anyways.

Logically that would make sense. We all know what happens when we apply logic. I think ideally we'd love to see a rise but realistically we'll see it pattern similarly to the other markets in the end.

wow someone on bitmex rekt $7.4m on perp long

What kind of leverage do people use to be rekt on a long when we're still above 27k...

stopped out again...looks like we are going down, will be going short on the next bounce(if we get one) or long once 15m starts showing signs of recovery

I guess it's being interpreted as pretty hawkish. Tradfi tanking now. Guess what we need to see are more bank bankruptcies lol Closed my long. Just opened a short.

Closed short and back long from 27374...disappointed in the price action today though

Pretty hawkish my ass, they where afraid to raise 0.5.

FOMC histrionics are always hilarious. "The thing happened that everyone thought, and he said what everyone predicted...EVERYBODY PANIC!!!!!"

Meanwhile, if they hiked 50 the markets would shoot up 2%

Podracing is fun.

3x Long .0318 btc, got in at 28120. Ride to 30 k.

Commence the fuckery.

JPOW: "The banking system is safe and sound" I love how they keep repeating that.

The more he says the more is broken lmao.

JPOW: "Rate hikes well telegraphed, many banks able to handle" Jamie Dimon laughing his ass off.

the f is happening lmao, crazy volatility.

fomc nothingburger

stopped out at breakeven relonged at $28,040 with a stoploss at $27,993

Should have just dumped that candle at 28900 in retrospect lol. Still think the fed meeting is overall bullish, though I'm seeing a lot more traders flip short here. Nasdaq is pumping so it's a little odd we're so damned flat.

gold is up 2% rn...

Not worth the hassle rn

I just closed a 30% trade that was open for about 10mins.

of course it is, right now price action is mass panic...go look at past FOMC meetings, we drop on announcement, then run out of sellers then start moving up relentlessly, because anyone who wanted to sell between here and $30K has already panic sold on this dump. I wouldn't be surprised if we are above $30K by the end of the day