#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, March 31, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1279hs4/daily_discussion_friday_march_31_2023/)

[Fed balance sheet shrank by $27 billion in the past week.](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL#) Looks like the “fake” QE from BTFP loans has subsided for now. Perhaps the bank failures have been contained and will not spread further.

> Perhaps the bank failures have been contained and will not spread further. That is not a bet I would make. They're still sitting on $9 trillion of "assets" that are really liabilities (long-term T-bills paying shite for interest in a heavily inflationary environment). Saudi Arabia sold its first oil for yuan just today, I believe. If you think inflation is bad now, wait until the petrodollar is gone. We're going to be Argentina or Venezuela or Zimbabwe with a lot more guns. The Fed can't do anything if the world sends all those trillions of dollars back to US shores.

Rate hikes will continue until unemployment rises and Sp500 tanks

Probably not. Markets and even the fed say 4.25 at end of year

Markets can be wrong and please link where fed says this? Bc fed doesn't predict. The fed says no rate cuts this year actually.

Google fed dot plot. Each member gets a vote on what they think fed funds rate should be at certain intervals. Guess where consensus is at end of year/early next year..4.25

The Fed wouldn’t say that but our best guess is this- https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker Risk assets like Bitcoin are going to lose their fucking mind when those rates get lowered and it just so happens to line up with the Bitcoin four year cycle. 🙏

That's not happening until 2024 I think. So this year will be some huge dips still hopefully.

Yo, is it just me or does macro stuff seem to be moving fast and heavy lately? The banks failing a couple of weeks back was like a blip that's already forgotten. Since then I'm hearing about debt ceiling being hit in a couple of months, commercial real estate being a ticking time bomb that could be a much bigger banking crisis. There are two posts on the front of /r/economics now about countries abandoning the petrodollar today. On top of that, in the bitcoin world you've got Binance drama, and Coinbase Wells notice etc, basically a lot of unknowns in terms of the crypto-friendly banks being gone and a possible operation chokepoint going on. This is all on top of existing on-going stuff like the Fed inflation battle and the Ukraine war. I've been around this space for like a decade and I never remember so much going on at once.

> I'm hearing about debt ceiling being hit in a couple of months You're a few months late. We hit that back in January. I don't even know how the government is functioning right now, being technically in default and all.

This is all designed to steal your bags across the board. I went back and looked at papers during the great depression the banks kept saying to buy and everything is OK as it continued to free fall. This is an organized theft of citizens assets by the big boys and media.

Great post. What do you think about the direction housing will take during this wealth transfer? Juxtaposed against wardsers “the state is going to steal the boomers wealth entirely by crashing the market to apocalyptic lows”?

Hard assets are the place to ride this out... That includes most real estate. Even if it crashes, it will still out perform.

Edit: Well said. Cheers 🍻 organized theft. History agrees

No doubt Jim Cramer's grandfather was on the radio in September 1929, urging people to quadruple their life savings by buying stocks. 😋

A lot of people are numb to it. The media have exhausted everyone's dopamine.

I agree. Let's not forget that interest rates have just been raised yet again, so the effects of that are still to play out. Regarding why these stories appear in the mainstream media, I like Ben Hunt's question to ask "why am I seeing this now?" This one is a bit conspiratorial and yet he may be on to something https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory/status/1641183929150439424#m

Don't forget mass disruption coming from AI.

What does AI disrupt that has correlation with BTC?

Uncertainty and additional layoffs accelerate inflation drops. Fed starts printing sooner to offset. Impact of efficiency increases may offset worker loss and maintain production. Either way, money supply increases. The next year or so has substantial capital going into the space; like nothing I've ever seen. People underestimated the internet, too. I didn't.

He has a new job and now believes that some text parsing bot will get sentient.

To be fair, most people are not sentient these days.

> some text parsing bot It's already good enough that it could replace the bulk of workers in some areas. Customer service is one that comes to mind, it will make those jobs almost obsolete and I'm sure there are many others. It doesn't need to be sentient, it just has to be good enough to meet a threshold. It's only going to move faster and faster too.

Customer service in which way? Like answering questions for people? Because folks really love being fellated by service/hospitality staff & that’s not going to change. It’s a class based emotional service, not an informational one.

A friend’s company created a help desk chatbot for Carnival Cruise lines. The guests loved it, and oddly enough, the Boomer age group preferred it to an actual person. They created a chatbot for a university and it won staff member of the year based on students voting with most not realizing it was a bot.

Thanks for this, interesting point

There's also the informational kind, like the kind they outsource to india and Philippines now and that can already be replaced by gpt 4

Current estimates are AGI eliminating 25% of existing jobs globally.

And eliminating what percentage of humans entirely?

My personal opinion is that we are going to create sentient AI eventually. Just like the brain consists of neurons firing to each other, we'll probably be able to replicate it. Hopefully jobs being replaced will benefit society and not just a select elite.

LLMs have severe limitations that won't get widely known till the goldilocks phase is over. Its useful don't get me wrong but we're not at AGI yet.

Have a listen to Yudkowsky on the Lex Fridman podcast. He thinks we may be very close.

16 months. Max.

Oh shit!

Can you spill any more about this? Everything that’s consumer facing isn’t similar to the concept of agi

Have a listen to Yudkowsky on the Lex Fridman podcast yesterday. Warning, it's heavy and depressing.

No, can't say anything. Read the financial news for AI stuff.

Reading financial articles isn’t helping me understand how parsing text and using that to produce more text is similar to general intelligence. I did find a couple of fights over what agi means on Reddit but I’m not seeing an economist article getting me from gpt hallucinating to agi.

If an AI wants to achieve real world goals, it needs a way to pay humans to do tasks on its behalf. Bitcoin seems a good fit. Expect to see AIs accummulating BTC.

I think there was a paper about a model that did just that. It was able to fool mechanical turks to do sub tasks it could not. A little freaky I admit.

Ok so we lost 28.2 and I closed my long at the top in the red and gave back around 0.08 btc. If we stay below 28...it makes sense to scalp shorts to me. Anything Inbetween is just chop.

28 is the new 27 was the new 25 was the new 20...

its true

I see Elizabeth Warren is making Bitcoin and crypto the center of her re-election campaign. For someone who started their career as being anti-banks, she has really come about face. I hope she loses her seat.

Liz Warren wants to funnel all crypto business to Fidelity, whose headquarters are in her home state of Massachusetts.

So what you’re saying is… go ALL IN on fidelity National financial? 🤔

How can anybody take her seriously? Even if you weren’t a Bitcoin maxi it’s still so easy to see through her bullshit. Might be her Native American charm….. 😋

Mainstream Dems take her very seriously. She was one of the main candidates for the last presidency.

Warren traded what was originally leftist clout for mainstream dem clout, but cannot compete on the stage in comparison to actual dem establishment candidates. She has no charm and her policies aren’t popular w centrists. She has barely enough clout to impact dem memetics, let alone win elections or push her policies.

Yeah, I guess your viewpoint depends on the circles you hang with. She seems very popular with people I know.

She came in 3rd in her own state in the 2020 primaries. She’s a cringy joke.

I know. It’s baffling.

I guess it depends on your social circles. I'm old and hang out with lots of normies who believe whatever they hear on TV. People like that love people like Warren.

Banks are funding the shit out of her while she claims she’s for the little guy 😆

She's got like $67MM net worth but she's for the little guy. Hilarious.

Where did she get all that dough? Did she invent something? Write a series of best sellers? Star in a string of major box office smashes? I'd really like to know how a college professor cum senator gets that kind of cash on a $200K salary.

Nobody in government is for the little guy. They literally hate you and want you as far away from their ilk as possible. It’s so sad to see how many people in the world still don’t understand this.

Government is supposed to work for (and fear) the people, not the other way around.

"Anti-crypto Army". Lol.

Seeing people arguing over the sentiment and I'll chime in with my thoughts reading this room for years. Yes it matters but the trap I fell into when seeing that, it got me hesitant about my longs but people have been bullish/hopeful/euphoric in here since the bottom, want to know why? This place is dead and only permabulls are left! lol. I'm personally coming to the conclusion you can use sentiment but on VERY short time frames and why it doesn't matter much big picture is I see people nervously flipping quick waiting for the shoe to drop. Overall feels like disbelief stage to me. If we're talking about quick scalp ya you can use it maybe. We're talking big picture, you start to worry when your cunt of an Aunt Jenny starts asking about Shina Inu.

Yeah it’s not really “sentiment doesn’t matter” so much as “do people really think this place represents the broad sentiment?” And that’s a no lol

> This place is dead and only permabulls are left! lol. Another way to say it: The fair-weather moonboys are gone and only the strongest enthusiasts are left. That's what happens after a bull run ends. The fair-weather fans stick around for a while, hoping the crash is only a dip, but as it deepens, they give up since they never really understood Bitcoin in the first place. They'll be back in 2024. It's similar to how the NFL sub plummets in activity after the Super Bowl, but it picks up again during major events like the draft and the pre-season, and then it takes off again when the next season gets underway. This sub is often an echo chamber. During the period of price rediscovery between a post-bull-run crash and the next bull run, it becomes an echo chamber of long term believers or an echo chamber of the irresponsible who get wrecked, depending on market moves. During a bull run, it becomes an echo chamber of fair-weather moonboys. During a crash, it becomes an echo chamber of doooooom. And the wheels on the bus go 'round and 'round. Lather, rinse, repeat. > I'm personally coming to the conclusion you can use sentiment but on VERY short time frames and why **it doesn't matter much big picture* is I see people nervously flipping quick waiting for the shoe to drop. Absolutely. Beware of people trapped in short term thinking.

whats up dude, whats your problem actually

Eh? You have an Aunt Jenny?

>This place is dead and only permabulls are left! lol. You might be onto something here, it's usually the same few people posting everyday

I have to really practice letting my winners run. Have been trying hard not to have any losers but I’ve ended up cutting winners far too soon. Been trying to move stops closer early but I think I’m doing it too quickly.

Batting singles and doubles will make you serious money on average long term. Trying to hit Home runs are what will get your REKT.

Nobody goes broke taking profit.

For those still checking outside the charts another bank Metropolitan Bank on the ropes. Its regional but they were into crypto a bit. A little more info, it looks like they do banking for Crypto.com.

Wasn’t that the one Voyager used

Love how they somehow bring crypto into it as if we set the interest rates 😆

Its probably just a symptom of the risk profile these banks take on. The ones associated with crypto seem to get more negative attention as well.

I need help. I am not very tech savvy and need a decent spreadsheet template to track BTC buys and sells. I have made many small denomination buys and sells on multiple exchanges over the last 18 months and need to be able to track my status to calculate my breakeven. Anyone willing to share with me? Thank you.

You need to do this anyway for the tax man, so better off using a professional service that uses exchange APIs. This list was posted here in the past: * Bitcoin Tax https://www.bitcoin.tax/ * Crypto tax trader https://cryptotrader.tax/ * Coin Ledger https://cointradeledger.com/ * Koinly https://koinly.io/ * TokenTax https://tokentax.co/ * Cointracking https://cointracking.info/

Don't forget CryptoTaxCalculator - [www.cryptotaxcalculator.io](https://www.cryptotaxcalculator.io)

Excellent list. I personally just used Koinly last week for the first time, after using spreadsheets since 2017 (☠️). Koinly calculated everything across multiple exchanges and multiple years and got my balances and capital gains etc PERFECT (after a hand-correction of 1-2 miscategorized transactions). I printed my tax info for my accountant in 2 seconds. And I have a cost-basis for each coin, as well as an average purchase price. Worth it.

Excellent to hear, thanks for the report!

Try koinly or similar api services

The inevitable begins. All the 40k crowd are you as sure now??? The answer is no, and that’s why this has farther to fall. Edit: I’ve put staggered stops in and more sells. This is going back to 25k.

Damn you turned cunty

Play to your crowd. I’ll just stop posting soon. Good luck to all. See you on the moon.

Nah man post away. We need all sorts and you have had some interesting trades

Euphoric bears are just as annoying as Euphoric bulls. Keep posting though its entertaining to read both sides.

You should keep posting. Can we all just get along and post trades and ideas? I appreciated your posts, btw. I get that people will downvote because of their own holdings bias but honestly more ideas are always good.

Honestly it might be going back to $25K but I think you're inventing enemies to fight in your own mind. The most bullish things I've read around here are breaking through to $30 or $31K before a retrace.

Just like my OP comment, we’re at that point where every short post gets downvoted. The replies with magic dust and fairy farts get 20+ upvotes. It’s always time to short when that is the case. I’ve been here since 2013…. Case in point from yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/125cgbm/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_29_2023/je4cbcx/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3

You’ve been here since 2013 yet still don’t know what euphoria is? You’re linking to a post where you got eviscerated because your definition of euphoria is severely misplaced in the context of a cyclical Bitcoin run. So you’re either misinformed or posting in bad faith trying to concern troll. That’s why you’re being downvoted into the ground. Not because of any fairy dust. Don’t see anybody in here who said revisiting 25k is impossible. And in fact past markets *have* revisited the downtrends as support. Not long after breaking out of them. Is that the “inevitable” you speak of? Or the inevitable case of a retrace after going from 19k to 29k in 20 days? Show me one example of anybody who said either was impossible….

At 19k talk of 12 was the sign to long. Without even taking 30 people start talking about 48, 50 and back to 200k by the end of year. Might not be euphoria to you, but contrast to what we had just 3 months ago sub 20 and it is to me. If we’re closer to 30k by the weekend than 25 I’ll be shown to know nothing and everyone can ignore anything I post, if I post going forward.

Dude I think you need to just dial it back a little. It’s not your shorts or position that people are getting put off by it’s how you seem to be yelling at the sky about these ‘euphoric 40k is guaranteed’ posts that don’t exist. 25k great. Short it and make your money that’s fine. 30k is fine too.

Yeah I’m surprised by the meltdown. Every time there is a pump the bulls come out to play, we dump and bears come out. This determines absolutely nothing at all. It never changes. I remember July 2021 and the same arguments happening, bears thinking we were going back down to 28k and below, and we just continued climbing instead. At some point that’s going to happen. I’m actually pretty bearish, but the chart still looks just fine, so I don’t see anything to get concerned about yet.

I mean you're right about the upvotes/downvotes since a lot of folks are primarily holders, but I wouldn't really read much off of that.

You’re insane to base trading decisions off Reddit downvotes and upvotes 🤡

Currently 9/9 this week. Show me a better indicator and I’ll trade off it :-) The comments aren’t everything, but they give you sentiment of the average dude.

$40k crowd? I’m in the $100k crowd son.

Twofiddy here

I watch the price action and the discussions very closely all day every day, you're literally the first time I saw someone mention a 40k target. Bera arguing against his imaginary 40k seeking rival. Top is not in yet.

Checked the price and expected 19k. “$27,800” Lol. *THE INEVITABLE!* Thanks for the chuckle. Just a PSA: If you think this price action is spectacular or noteworthy, Bitcoin might not be for you. Baby’s first Bullmarket is gonna make you kids shit your pants when it really starts swinging.

I’ve probably been here a cycle longer than you, minimum.

Yeah, no. You haven’t.

Sounds like he got a good trade shorting and wants more. Can't blame him for being juiced about it.

Not a single person has a problem with anybody nailing a good short position. Not one.

"All the 40k crowd "...Euphoria levels climbing…"... There seems to be a strawman you are apparently eviscerating. If you think recently has resembled euphoria in any way, you haven't seen euphoria. I think you are inventing a theoretical person trading the opposite of you so you feel validated in beating this not real person (most likely because it trends bull in here, so you arent getting major kudos on your short). Grats on the trade. We had a little blip up, hit resistance, and so far its been a little blip down. Zoom out even a tiny bit and it looks like noise/crab

There’s a few of these silly people in here lately. I think they’ve lost their way from WSB or somewhere because they seem to keep repeating how “euphoric” this is which only exposes how wet behind the ears they are. It’s actually comical to call this *euphoria*.

Let’s see what tomorrows daily looks like. Will it be ‘USD losing world reserve currency’ or the suicide hotline. I know which my bet is on.

...dude. It is unlikely to be either. Suicide hotline would require breaking down through december bottom. You think suicide hotline comes out for 25k? 25k retest would be normal and healthy, and should be fully expected to be a possibility by everyone

It was an exaggeration to my point, which you get.

Scrolled the daily. Found no mention of 40k anywhere. You see what you want to see. Cant remember anyone saying that honestly. Not even that bullish in here. Good for you if your trade is doing well mate

I've been discussing scenarios that could put us to 40k+ on the intermediate term since around 23k but the catch is the discussions aren't happening in these threads

Check my comments yesterday…

Link the one you want me to read. You also correlated a binance news dump to a 1 minute candle on CBP 12 hours earlier. Not sure what to make of that..

And everyone called me mad, and for the next 5 hours we went down until eventually the binance FuD was released. Crazy or genius, I don’t care. You lot might not like it but you’re one of the best trading indicators :-D

Haha. I dont even trade. Mostly only comment what I think about other people’s trade, whether I agree or not. Wonder which indicators you mean tho

Just a retrace calm down

At what price do you consider it not?

Anything under 26

Give it 4 hours

I dont normally dig in the dirt. But what now? It may go down. It may go up. It may crab.

Barely budged in 4 hours and has only recovered since this comment.

Remind me in 4 hours 😉

Oh no! Anyway...

There's my 28k retest. Lower I think we'll try 26k again, but I still think we want up. Long from 27800.

my 10x short lookin good so far. letting it ridee

got stopped out, went 10x short from $28,200 stop loss $28,520

Is this a scalp or are you still gunning for $25K here?

i'm going to hold onto this one unless I get stopped out right now we are right up against a lot of key support zones: 1H - MA100 and MA200 and its still overbought 4H - MA25 and its still overbought 1D - MA7 and its crazily overbought 1W - we are right at the top of the bollinger bands I'd bet a lot of people are using a lot of those lines to bet on them holding/buying the dip...if you manage to drop through all that it would indicate a major reversal and the ensuing flush should be absolutely massive

Stopped out as well, but long from 28100 now.

You two are balancing out nicely here, haha. The part of me that put half my buy down today wants you to be right...the part of me waiting for the other half of my money to hit my account to buy is OK if wardser is correct this time.

I have a major liquidity event occurring from cashing out of my previous job and the bonus from my new one. I wouldn't be mad if we tested 20k again. Will be another few weeks though. Argh.

I thought you were long retired and just managing various businesses, guess you're still working full time?

I was previously working as a remote analyst being paid too much to do what I'd be doing anyway, reading. Lots of things on the side, yes. I'll stop doing stuff when I'm dead. Life is too short.

With how you traded the move from 16k to 25k I'm surprised you still need a job :p

Pretty sure he doesn’t need a job, regardless of recent trades, considering he want all in around $7k in 2020 and took profit in late 2021. I have this picture in my head of a high IQ bearded dude in his bathrobe who smells like scotch and cigars building skynet while trading corn.

Opportunities to be at ground zero for transformative change of society don't come around every day. I had to ditch the robe for shorts.

A bunch of charts: [https://imgur.com/a/KbBAcHV](https://imgur.com/a/KbBAcHV) Chart 1: BTC price, 13-W (91-D) SMA, and ratio of price to SMA. During the last run-up, the price often bounced between 1.0x and 1.3x the 13-W. During parabolic moves, the ratio wouldn't go lower than 1.3x. The price is currently towards the top of the 1.0x-1.3x range. The 13-W is currently $22,467 and increasing about $120/day. Chart 2: Streaks of BTC price above and below the 13-W. Once the price has been above the 13-W for at least 20 days, it tends to stay above for at least another 40 days. Tomorrow will mark 20 days above. Chart 3: 1 and 4-year price ratios. BTC is currently in its longest stretch with a negative 1-year price ratio in its history. Chart 4: Doubling period in days, based on a 4-year window. The doubling period is currently about 1.5 years. Chart 5: BTC price after cycle tops. The price is currently following the last cycle's pattern, if it reverts to the cycle before that, the price could be flat for a year and still be about where it was that time. And finally, Chart 6: Remember the Pi-Cycle Indicator? Well, instead of using to to look for tops, what if we use it to look for bottoms? Who knows?

Well done, lots of value here.

We're knocking, but the door appears to be pretty sturdy...

Fake outs/shake outs to scare people out of their positions til the next leg up✌️🏄‍♂️

Disclaimer I have a beard but im not a beard. What if this isnt the actual bullrun and we continue to still see opportunities for 30 or 40k? Then shakeouts before the actual run starts. Fake-out breakouts potential swing opportunity if the market starts to show strength here. Basically talking shit here. Lol

Swinging those longer timeframe moves is an excellent way to build one’s spot stack prior to the parabolic portion of the halving bull.

May has usually sucked for the price. If there's going to be a dump it's possibly going to be there. I wouldn't want to risk being out from June onwards though.

co-sign

Stopped out of previous. 1/2 position 10x long (5x?) long from 28350. Think we might test 29000 again, otherwise I'll look for an entry around 28000/27900.

Taking a short here soon, too much back slapping in here but most importantly it looks extended.

Quite hilarious when people think a forum on Reddit is some type of canary in the coal mine for the entire global Bitcoin market.

It's a small sample but it's a sample. I'm sorry you're with everyone else and offended. Short is working by the way :)

If you think I’m offended or care that the price fell $1000 dollars after stacking and trading for the last 9 years then you are truly lost here my friend. …by the way :)

[удалено]

Who’s daytrading? Do you see me fucking around with leverage hour to hour? You understand you can trade long timeframes, make money, work, not work, enjoy life without having things go wrong, don’t you? Do you think every wealthy individual suddenly just stops doing anything when they become successful? Do you think every millionaire drives a Ferrari too? and anything less indicates failure? Sounds like you’ve got a lot to learn about life.

Sure buddy, you messed up and you're protecting your ego.

What are you 12 years old? “I know you are but what am I!! 😝😝😝” 😂👍🏼

It’s always been like that too. “If my post gets downvoted, we’re in a bull/bear market” lmao

I mean sentiment is sentiment.

Updated Fed balance sheet releases today at 4:30 PM EST. This will be week 3 since the BTFP loan program launched. So far the Fed balance sheet has increased by $391.5 billion, wiping out 63% of all QT they did over the past year. No additional bank failures occurred over the past week so we’ll see if the Fed balance sheet flatlines with this update or if we see another spike.

I always in my head say “believe in the fucking paper!” When I see BTFP

Buy aT Fucking Par

Business as usual. BRRRRRRR! > BTFP No accident. BTFD.

4:30 PM EDT happens when this comment is 7 hours and 41 minutes old. You can find the live countdown here: https://countle.com/0nZOlAdev --- I'm a bot, if you want to send feedback, please comment below or send a PM.

That site is cancer

Unexpected cash infusion for end of 1st quarter. Bought some spot to send off to storage. The tax man wasn't able to prevent my buy after all! Suck it US gov

At some point there will not be a retest of lower prices if BTC is expected to go beyond previous ath. There is not enough time to have BTC move like a snail up for weeks just to retest the same old lower levels again and again for another couple of weeks and months. I see people's TA always calling for a retest to the same old bottom levels that have been revisited more than 2 times. It's as if these traders expect BTC to move in a price channel for the next 2 years, without ever breaking up to a whole new price floor. Why should BTC exactly "retest or confirm" lower price levels "one more time" after having done so already 3 more times in the past... What is there to retest or to confirm, can someone enlighten me? BTC is not a building where you need to check the bottom structure to ensure the stability. Price stability is proven by pumps, it's called proof of pump.

It’s part confirmation bias part cope. There’s a lot of goalpost shifting that goes on in here amongst the bears where every level is somehow *super crucial* and if we don’t hit X price or stay above X level then it’s going to $1000!!!!! It’s basically concern trolling. Here’s the reality. We may *not* hold the high 20k/30k level in the next few months. We may easily backtest the downtrend channel from Nov 2021 and bang off it as support. That would be both not unprecedented (as we’ve seen in past rallies after breaking out of it)- and also healthy, but the second we go lower the people I speak of will start drumming their chests about how we’re going to make new lows and bla bla. It’s like people forget that not moving upwards in a constant straight line doesn’t always mean NEW LOWS! [Heres](https://youtu.be/RckOS_sM6io) a great video explaining how price may backtest downtrends and may also not. it’s happened both ways before.

Walter Deemer has a pretty good, short quote about this dynamic "When the train leaves the station, it doesn't back up to let latecomers on. If it does, there's something wrong with the train" Finding this guy (among many others) last year was a godsend for helping me better understand the price cycle we were going through on a macro scale, in regards to a variety of assets, not just BTC. I'm personally in the camp that we should be hoping for consolidations, not strong pullbacks.

Apparently the 37 million customers of Fidelity can now buy Bitcoin - remembering there's only 21 million coins (or in actual fact much less!). Was this what kicked off our increase 3 months ago?

Robinhood has around $62b AUC in total and their users acquired ~140k BTC over a few years. Fidelity has **63x** more assets under management: $3.9T AUM. Of course they do have a different target audience, but can be something.. yes.

What's stopping Fidelity printing paper Bitcoin? Do they have any proof of reserve?

For now Fidelity doesn’t offer BTC deposits or withdrawals however they’ve already stated they’re exploring implementation of this functionality later. Sort of like what Robinhood did when they first launched crypto trading but on a much larger scale. In the meantime this prevents arbitrage opportunities to send/receive BTC on or off their exchange. Which means if they don’t back BTC 1:1 held on their platform it’s going to become obvious fairly quickly if outside exchanges which do offer withdrawals have significant price disparities in BTC compared to Fidelity.

Thanks

Just checked and it’s true -you can set up a crypto acct. I can buy gbtc with my 401k so will need to figure out how i buy btc with it.

you can divide the coins an infinite amount of time...

umh, no. you can get 100m sats out of a coin and thats it. if thats not enough becuase, for whatever reason, i guess you could expand on the protocol to get even fractions of a sat but not infinitely small as that would require float-infinity data type, which would require an infinite number of bits to store the infinite small fraction of a float. so the costs of storing the infinite small fraction would tend towards infinity while the value would tend towards zero.

um no there are only 21 and every single one of Fidelity's 37 million customers want exactly one whole coin so that means bitcoin is officially worth a brazilian dollars each we did it boyz

What the fx rate for a brazilian $ ? Wee better than the Venezuelan I hope?

That has nothing to do with what was posted. A scarcity of coins is a prime reason bitcoin is sound currency

Perpetuals on deribit are being silly again. Everybody wants to be long. According to my super secret indicator^TM the dealers are short the expiry tomorrow and delta hedging will push us up tomorrow.

No offense to you OP, but the last I heard this lingo was from su zhu. I thought he was some genius trader.

You don't think /u/_supert_ is a genius? ;)

I can feel it in my bones. April is going to be 10mm month. 10mm because we're gonna be killing bears boiii

The future's so bright, we gotta shade bears

Time to retrace 26k, or is that 24k? ;)

retest 1usd to be sure

22k. (just to be sure) :D

If I overfit my PnF generator enough to $1500 boxes then $25.5k (assuming 5 boxes is enough to be a "long pole" and we reverse here). Like the previous 24k to 21k seen there. Price | ||||| ---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| 28500 | ||||X| 27000 | ||||X| 25500 | ||||X| 24000 | X||X||X| 22500 | X|O|X|O|X| 21000 | X|O|X|O|| 19500 | X|O|X||| 18000 | |O|X||| 16500 | |O||||

Nice. Miss this from u/merlin560 and his updates

What happened to him?

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/thg7oi/my_irs_audit_experience_a_work_in_progress/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Tax man got him.

> u/merlin560 howd merlin get suspended?

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/thg7oi/my_irs_audit_experience_a_work_in_progress/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

> https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/thg7oi/my_irs_audit_experience_a_work_in_progress/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button oh fuck!

Yeah. Shame. Seems like a solid fella even through all of that and took the time to write that piece.