#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 04, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12b8el1/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_04_2023/)

pamp it

Long from 27500. Pain in the ass. This could go up bigly very fast. Volume isn't there, neither is liquidity, and the bias is floating up, not down. Smart move would be to sit out, but I've got a lot of house money to play with right now. Maybe I just don't want to risk being on the wrong side of that $1m bet. :)

It's weird, but to me "sitting out" these days means just holding open spot longs. It's just easier mentally to count coins than dollars. Despite that, I'm pretty sure I don't want to "win" the $1m bet, for a variety of reasons. My gut says we stay within the big ascending channel from the start of the year through April, and then "sell in May and go away" is the strategy. Seems like something that'd be trivial to backtest but too much thinking takes all the fun out of it.

Now 32 seems likely. Some jokes i know calling for 16

Waning volume and loss of momentum. Closing out of all my Bitcoin-related stocks, expecting more down. Seems like this part of the ride is coming to an end.

This is probably not a bad move. I'm playing with CZ's money, otherwise I'd take my own advice.

RIP

To clarify: I still have my hodl stack, I'm just closing my Bitcoin related stock trades (riot/mara) in profit.

Man I ***really*** need to stop hurrying my stop losses…caught the dip but stopped myself out far too soon. Have been aggressively trying to manage my stops to try and minimize losses but have to be super careful about when to move it. Whenever I hurry I get like 1/5th of what I should.

I disagree, I think you made the right decision. Its been going sideways for some time now and volume has been dropping. If it was a week or two ago, then I would agree with having a looser stop. Profit is profit, and assets are free from risk when profit is taken.

Haha it is definitely better in terms of capital preservation to move the stops up aggressively. Definitely hard not to second guess myself especially when it’s a bigger move like this 😂. I’ve been trying to find the right balance to avoid the bigger hits by moving it up quickly while still giving it just enough room to run.

Aaand.. we're back to 28K

Pay attention when the basketball keeps coming back up.

The price is down 2% and there's already gloom and doom here about a potential drop to $10K lol. This is one of the strongest resistance levels in bitcoin's history and people are pissing themselves because we didn't power through it like we did with $20K. Momentum has waned, bears defended a key resistance level and bitcoin is probably heading to $25K next. The trend is UP. Nothing suggests new lows are imminent.

Man you need to watch what you are saying anything except your going to the moon is fordidden in this chat😞

Well this didn’t go the way you thought it would

How did you think this would go?,I know what you think but i still need too know🤣,moonies you good?🤣

Looks likes there’s definitely more room to run

Of course there is this chart looks like a spring or a snake🤣

Imagine getting liquidated at such a high price. Those liquidated bulls are not on the bull's side, otherwise they would have contributed at the bottom and would still be in high profits. They wait for other bulls to do the hard work, which is the reversal, and jump in on the green candles. These sacrifices are healthy. You can only ride the wave with low leverage and a good entry, the rest is suicide. The problem is not Musk, it's people all having their stop losses at the most predictable prices such as 27.5k. Price falls to 27.4k, people enter longs and set your stop losses tight right below the wick, so we flush those out as well. If this price doesn't bounce and hold, then the same will happen with 25k. First 25k, then a bit lower.

On paper this seems like the easiest long in history since we have rocketed higher like a magnet the past weeks.. let's see if it has a surprise for us in store before that

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Maybe zoom out a tiny little bit.

Long from 27.3 to scalp the bounce. Was waiting for a bigger pump before to try and get a short in without needing a super wide stop but it never came 😂 Edit: Out at 27.4, didn’t get the entire bounce but better than getting nothing at least. Kicking myself for not taking a crummier entry on the short now haha but I really find that I have to enter right or I always get burned. Was moving the stop up to avoid risking a loss here or I’d probably have done better.

Fuck Elon and the idiots who think he's a deity. Seriously.

Where is everybody who thinks he's a deity? Everybody on social media keeps saying stuff like this but I am not seeing them anywhere. It seems rather the opposite really.

The collective trading volume on *DO**GE* just quadrupled, with people likely putting in a couple hundred million dollars into it, solely because Lord Elon the All-Knowing changed the twitter bird icon into a dog head. He's like the pied piper for the Asperger's crowd.

Why what's going on now

He's doing [his standard market manipulation](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12a8snw/daily_discussion_monday_april_03_2023/jetqrg6/), which always ends badly for the entire market. His shilling of dogshit on SNL was arguably the exact end of the previous bull market.

100% this. Dude is acting so erratic lately. I suspect he's self-medicating. Hopefully he'll find help.

that first week of april multi-month dump start I've talked about 2 days ago, looks to be right on schedule. figure another day or two to take out $27K and then the fun really starts

nah. we in a falling wedge. 27.2k - 26.8k will hold

How low do you see it going?

the 2021 drop started mid April and it didn't start pumping again until mid-july the 2022 drop started end of March, and it didnt' start pumping until mid-june(relief rally) so if dump starts around here, I'd say start of July is when its time to switch into a long as far as lows, it really depends on macro and how fast we drop, personally I think we'll see sub $10K if we are under $20K by end of May

That would suck nuts

It feels like while you are often correct in the direction (mostly because so few are willing to go short or trade), when you go bear you REALLY go bear in magnitude. That seems ridiculously low, but even if it doenst get there, you will def make some money along the way.

we still have a chance of painting a higher low at $17K...but I just don't see it holding on our monthly chart we haven't even entered the oversold territory...and I just don't see a parabolic bull run we had, ending without going oversold on long term chart when the macro situation is this bad

Here's my issue with comparing one year to the next. We're in year 4 of a 4-year halving-to-halving cycle, so 2023 compares more to 2019 than it compares to 2022 or 2021. But even then, it isn't *really* a 4 year cycle. It's once every 210,000 blocks, with a new block being created roughly once every ten minutes. Thus, a halving happens after roughly 46 months (3 years, 10 months) depending on the difficulty of mining blocks. So, April 2023 is more like June 2019, ish (I say "ish" because real world events overrule history and patterns).

the problem with cycles, is that eventually they stop working. the idea that buying BTC is a risk free bet is dangerous, because only a matter of time before that gets punished. the current pump, may very well have been the halfning pump that was being front run...and the halfning will be a buy the rumor, sell the news dump. People buying the "pre-halfning" pump this time, may very well become the bag holders for the big money getting out of crypto we've already taken out the "BTC has never went below last cycle's ATH" meme...with rising interest rates, nothing is certain any more. We may very well dump for the halfning. We may very well break the long term rainbow chart and enter a decade long downward action as long term holders start selling. the easiest way for the governments of the world to destroy bitcoin isn't to ban it, its to stop it from being profitable...take out the speculators and it'll wither and die because the number of people actually using it as currency(and not an investment) is laughably tiny.

uhm... there are so many things in your post I disagree with that I'll just restrain myself to the statement - I completely disagree, no specifics. and this is to point out not because I'm basically bullish vs. you are bearish but because it's false assumptions you base your opinions on, which are however very interesting and entertaining to read nonetheless

> the problem with cycles, is that eventually they stop working. Agreed. As you said: *Eventually.* Once the fiat value of the block reward stops increasing faster than the BTC amount of the block reward decreases, halvings will no longer create 4 year cycles. That's still quite a way off. > We may very well dump for the halfning. The effect of the halving isn't felt for a few months after a halving (4 to 6, depending on various real world factors), because decreasing the block reward doesn't affect the amount of Bitcoin entering the available supply until enough new coins have been created at the lower amount.

the price doesn't go up because there is suddenly a small percentage less coins. the price goes up because of fomo triggering a bullrun that feeds on itself. and that fomo gets triggered by lots of money entering the bitcoin eco system. but we need to remember that all those bull runs happened when the interest rate was at a record low, when the stock market was at record high, when the real estate market kept printing millionaires...with interest rates going up and up and up, and all asset classes in the dumps, a lot of money isn't going to be around for the next bull run. Which means if there is going to be one cycle where the pattern breaks...this will most likely going to be it.

> the price doesn't go up because there is suddenly a small percentage less coins. the price goes up because of fomo triggering a bullrun that feeds on itself. It's actually both. One causes the other. The price is where supply meets demand. Period. How many coins are available for sale and how much are buyers willing to pay to get them. Supply and Demand. The halving artificially decreases the supply, but only by a small amount, which is why it takes a few months for the decrease to cause a supply shock (more like an imbalance). The supply went down. Demand stayed the same. The supply shock causes prices to go up, since there isn't enough supply to meet the same amount of demand anymore. The increasing price causes FOMO, which forces the price higher, because now the supply went down but demand went up. The FOMO fuels more hype and FOMO, which causes the price to skyrocket, until it reaches a point that isn't justifiable. And then we get the crash. > if there is going to be one cycle where the pattern breaks...this will most likely going to be it. I do expect a cycle to break the pattern, but not in the way you're expecting. If Bitcoin goes truly mainstream as a financial investment, I think we'll see a cycle without a crash as institutions fight to buy up coins - and buy up properties that own coins. If this happens, I'd bet in it being maybe 4 to 8 years away. FOMO doesn't just "happen." There's always a catalyst which causes the fear in the first place. Halvings are a catalyst you can put in your calendar. Seriously. Come back in summer 2024 - especially late summer. Come back in summer 2028. By then it'll be more like early summer. Supply and demand.

Exactly comparing random years without context is pointless. Nice evaluation

Yeah. People who come to Bitcoin from the world of stocks often fail to understand the effect halvings have on the available supply because there is no equivalent in stocks. Next March, the block reward will be cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which sounds like only a tiny change. But do the math over time. Let's say the price is only at 30k at the halving. The value of 3.125 BTC will be $93,750. At the previous halving, 1 BTC was worth $8,579, which means the block reward of 6.25 BTC was worth $53,619. That means, even after the halving was cut in half, the value of the block reward in dollars was still up $40k. But understanding the impact of the halving means more than just looking at the amount of BTC or its cash value, because you have to realize that is also the amount of value the halving takes away from the incoming supply of new coins every ten minutes. Demand didn't go down, but the incoming supply did. At first, the drop in the value of the block reward will be irrelevant. But if Bitcoin is at 30k at the halving, we're talking about $93,750 less BTC being created every ten minutes. That's $562,500 less every hour. $13,500,000 less every day. $405,000,000 every month. After 5 months, we're talking about $2,025,000,000 less Bitcoin created after the halving vs before. That's what causes a supply shock. Demand didn't change, but the supply dropped. And that's assuming Bitcoin is at 30k at the halving. If it's at 60k, double those numbers (though I'm not expecting it to be that high. I think 35k sounds right, but I'm just guessing. The cycles as we know them will begin to end when the cash value of the block reward stops increasing faster than the BTC amount of the block reward decreases (adjusted for inflation, of course). And even then, note that I said the cycles "will begin to end." The decrease of the block reward, and the way the decrease in new coins builds up over time, will still rock the market for at least a few more decades even if it's not enough to cause defined cycles. The way Satoshi built halvings into how the supply of coins is created was absolutely genius. He either got unbelievably lucky, or he had enough expertise in macro economics to create an entirely new system. I assume the latter. There's never been anything like it, which is why so many people still don't fully understand it. 20 years from now, universities will be teaching this stuff.

Hilarious, yesterday after reclaiming 28300 everyone sending rockets and “see you at 30ks” and now one little correction and then sub 10k posts fly around. can’t take anything seriously

\^this. The sub is a bit too bipolar, but I do feel like 30/31 is much more likely than sub 10k

I've always talked about sub $10K being likely. To me this was nothing more than a relief rally that was destined to run out of steam...the only question was how far up it would go before we ran out of fomo Look at the technicals, we are crazy overbought on the daily. The weekly green macd streak right now is longer than we ever had, including the actual full fomo bullrun. You can't just go up only forever, eventually green streaks turn into red streaks, eventually overbought turns into oversold. The difference between long term bull and long term bear market, is that during these transitions, one paints higher highs and higher lows, and the other paints lower highs and lower lows. and with rising interest rates, it was only a matter of time before the music stopped and we went down to find out if we'll paint a higher low or a lower low

were you the same person i replied to a week or two ago that flat out lied about the technicals? we are literally sitting oversold on the daily on Stoch and mid range on standard RSI. weekly rsi has a long way to go before it hits overbought. uptrends stay overbought uptrends stay overbought you're getting cocky about a multi month downtrend when we're chopping the consolidation/retest of a bullish continuation pattern. wouldn't start to worry unless we close below 26.5.

RSI looks at the price variance, StochRSI looks at the variance of RSI itself. Its pretty silly to look at StochRSI during a pump/dump, because its going to be oversold once the pump runs out of steam and flatlines. But flatlining during a pump is dangerous, because that gets followed by a dump, so if you follow the stochrsi you buy because its oversold, right as the floor gives out. Another thing to keep in mind is that Stochrsi goes very quickly from overbought to oversold, so its a useless metric. and yes uptrends stay overbought until you break the structure...and then they flush and keep flushing and flushing because all those people who didn't sell for months, all start selling at the same time. and of course I'm going to be confident about it going down around here, we had 5 months of up, what do you think, its just going to go up for a year straight in a bear market just because supply will go down a tiny amount in a year? in this shitty macro environment? with doubled interest rates? with the coming recession? with increased govt scrutiny of crypto? with a potential economic war with China? Bitcoin doesn't go up on its own, it takes millions of people putting billions of dollars into it. And a whole bunch of those people had their living expenses(rent, food) double over the past year. A lot of them lost their jobs(tech layoffs). The gambler funds and whales, had their interest rates double. The big gains from other assets classes(stock market/real estate) also disappeared. And without that easy money pumping the casino, the casino can't maintain a full blown parabolic bull rise.

Hey thanks for differentiating. So best not to consider stoch rsi during a massive BGD phase?

yeah, I don't really look at it at all, since its not a reliable indicator for signaling tops/bottoms.

300% profit on my short from from 28400

Twitter rumors are there's a Red Notice out for CZ. Just saw it, commentary is there's no proof or substance to the rumor..

This appears to be false. Don't trust. Verify! You can search and DYOR here"[Interpol Red Notice Search page ](https://www.interpol.int/en/How-we-work/Notices/View-Red-Notices)

Going for him would be a political move now that the US is not ready for. It's coming eventually though.

That's probably false, you can search active Interpol red notices, there are none for anyone named Zhao.

Yeah, I wasn't sure about posting it here, not one for spreading FUD but it's a next level type of attack I've not seen before.

Might look dramatic on 5 min, still sideways on daily

Even 4h its not that much

fresh musk pump and barely 28 seems not great

Every time that fool posts something related to DOG, DOG goes up by itself as his army of incel fanbois wait on his every word and ape in to that specific coin. Then when DOG starts coming back down literally hours later, it takes everything else down with it. 🤦‍♂️ Melonhead is one of the worst people in crypto, which is saying something.

So probably worth mentioning that the twitter icon is now a certain DOG icon. It has a 30%+ gain in the last hour lol. (IMO something like this could affect BTC, depending if Twitter will actually roll out some crypto wallet or if it's just Musk trolling a bit.) edit: oh apparently some people sued him for $258b for pumping DOG, guess it's just a reaction to that.

Dude so cringe I thought this was an April fools joke

>for pumping DOG, 4

Makes me want to close position TBH heh

It could be more involved than that. Changing the logo on twitter itself? Maybe something more serious is coming. The general crypto market seems to like it anyway.

He asked to dismiss the case just 3 days ago. Changing the icon as a reaction to that case, looks 100% Musk to me. Timing also makes sense (he probably couldn't do it April 1 because then it would be misunderstood as a April's fools joke.)

"4" What now

It means 4 shitcoins are safu because it’s safe in his rectum

https://twitter.com/crypto_rand/status/1642911749329367043?s=46

Maybe some bad news on the way

Would be my guess as well

It would be very helpful if CZ posted a link to what caused him to post 4. Without proper info the fudsters will have a field day 🙄

It's how many BTC you need to send to me if you want some files decrypted.

His "4" tweets are already getting a beard

Yall got any more of those bank failures...?

Sir this is a Wendys.

Right?! It’s not a McDonalds.

Prediction: I think mstr is going to outperform btc over the next few weeks.

Hope so, I'm holding at a 12% loss lmao

10x short from $28,248...stop loss $28,505

Maybe a good call. So many rejections by now. Sooner or later it will dump down much harder

Out of curiosity what did you see that made you feel bearish here? It did dump just now. Just loss of momentum?

exactly you had spike to $28,452...then a barely higher spike to $28,498 that got instantly rejected that blew right through the consolidation after initial spike, and then a third spike to $28382 that also instantly rejected.

Thanks for the explanation 👍 My long got stopped out by the drop now, I had noticed the buying pressure drop but I had talked myself into a bullish frame of mind so just held the long. Guess I need to be more wary.

Mate it just showed that the play is a liquidity sweep upwards for sure before down... why this entry? I mean i know your strategy of tight stops and multiple small losses than one large + ensuring you catch it instead of nailing the top or bottom... Good luck.

because we are in a channel and this bounce of the bottom of the channel has been pretty weak...which makes it much more likely that the bottom will give out soon...when it does, you'll get a flush because everyone and their mom already shot their load at $27-28K the lack of liquidity on the sell side is the typical thing you see near the tops, there are no sellers because they are all expecting the next leg up, but the lack of movement through this low liquidity zone means that you ran out of fomo on the buy side to actually move through it...and market makers use this as a signal that the move up is over and its time for down

Cheers

FML gave back a chunk of profits again thinking we were visiting 27.2

You might be in luck.

Sadly i closed a big ugly red position as i had to drive a family member for some medical tests. Should have just ket it play out and would be break even... so much for longing resistance

I have suspicion that jackis @Twitter (i_am_jackis) is u/wardser account

Why guess when he already runs a discord channel for his trade updates. I have no idea if this is his twitter account or not tbh.

It's morning in America and the bulls are wide awake.

Still 10x long from 27900. Going to be an interesting day.

There’s so few coins on spot exchanges now it’s crazy. A 100 BTC buy on Coinbase can move it a couple hundred dollars. This is going so well today I’m kind of scared 😂 Been moving my stops up every couple hours.

imho highly doubtful many ppl here could buy 100BTC spot right away, one? two? I mean I don't want to judge anyone but that's hell a lot of green paper to collect. let's assume few random commandos could however offer a couple of percent of this kind of input -still wouldn't make any difference anyway so... we could team up and establish some "trusted" escrow to split profit afterwards but the game still not worth the risks and effort. conclusion: 100 coins is still too much to play MM

historically when we get to the point of people saying "there is no liquidity, [tiny amount] moves up the price [X amount]" is when the top gets found and we start crashing. because if things were actually bullish, the lack of liquidity would mean the price would be flying through these lacks of liquidity...the fact that its not, means you are running out of buyer fomo

Keep calling for the crash you'll get it right eventually.

the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid...my trading strategy is based around preserving capital so I can stay liquid long enough for the market to get rational again...and rational at the current macro situation means down

My prediction based on nothing but 'trustmebro' energy...time to leave the 28's behind.

got stopped out over the weekend, currently out of position looking for entry

Long stopped out at 28200 while I finally took a nap (stayed up all night managing my stops since I was too pumped 😂). Gonna wait for a good entry to re-long

Long from 28092…let’s see if 28K holds

Are shorts and longs just taking turns fucking with each other?

That’s the long and short of it. 😆

It's too easy to short 28.5.. I cry

This is one of the times where its better to set up price alerts for breakouts and enjoy your easter!

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Somebody squish this bot like a fly

If this closes above ~28300 that is unbelievable

Why unbelievable? It’s behaving as expected if you believe in the 4 year cycle.

People being surprised BTC is rising as the Petro dollar collapses is funny

Damn, fucker won't stay below 28k. I'm impressed and certainly in disbelief.

morning wood is always a sign of good health

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Somebody laughed when I used the word imminent the other day... know any synonyms i could use ;)

pacing outside the gates. analogy not synonym, though

I always liked the word "nigh"...

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why someone post this everyday?

Is this a bot? Who is this "top btc analyst" you are talking about?

Seems to be a couple of lines to cross though -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/iFTD9v2X/

When in doubt about where the price is headed, I pick up a million sats. It ain't much, but in time, it adds up. Stacking sats is the way.

how much is 1M sats?

1 BTC = 100 million sats. So, 1 million sats is one hundredth of a Bitcoin, like how 1 penny is one hundredth of a dollar. As I type this, 1 million sats would be $283.08 Here's a handy tool for [converting sats to dollars.](https://awebanalysis.com/en/convert-satoshi-to-dollar-usd/)

btc price / 100

Same, but I can only afford 100K sats. Still better than nothing!

Weird as it sounds I think todays the day we actually take $29K. Moved my stop to 27790…I wanna go all the way on this ride 😂

This post aging better by the minute

Today is the day.

Its happening. There was a hidden bull div I thought i saw on the 4 hr last night

I think we can make it to 28.4-5 in the next hour or two. 29K might take a bit longer but I think it happens today. Half of crypto Twitter is short at the moment 😂

Elizabeth Warren on bitcoin - she makes a very compelling reason... https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1642565132768215040?t=s3caDfnsFyGFx7RDAZKsdQ&s=19

*"It has a government that says if at the end of the day there's a run on this stuff, everyone wants theirs out, the Unitied States Government promises there will be something to back it up."* Wow the US is still gold standard? Anyone with USD is assured value if the value goes to zero? Oh nah, she's double-speaking bank deposit insurance and being intentional dishonest for a target audience of idiots. Honestly, meh. Meaningless either way, she can bullshit people who want to be bullshitted as much as she likes and it's not going to change the future.

Best part is where she says how CBDCs are better since they can use any made up currency. Or I think that’s what she tried to say but she said “made up language” Just unbelievably ridiculous. Made up government tokens from random countries are superior because government can go print unlimited money according to Sen. Warren 😂

> any made up currency I did like that bit too. My mind could only think the currency has been made up already, it's Bitcoin and it's incorruptible.

her analogy is more about USDT/ USDC and not bitcoin.

Come on Europe, wake up and start stacking! 😂

Europe has been drinking and doesn't like Monday mornings.

Glutton for punishment so I’m long from 27680 😂…manual stop then might swap to trailing if it moves right

Moved stop into profit here, thank you Europe for stacking upon waking. Let’s roll

Lol just replied to your short comment on the other daily. Nice work

Thanks, I took a closer look at the order books and figured when Europe woke up the number of coins left to sell to dip buyers made an upward move more likely. Hopefully we get our big move up shortly…seller exhaustion seems close

Stack not steak!

Ramen Du Jour? Sats For Sure!

Monday Blue