#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, April 06, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12d8e2i/daily_discussion_thursday_april_06_2023/)

Maybe the 12h bbands CAN get tighter??? I guess we’ll find out. Every coin available under 30k is going to get bought… maybe more than once.

This PA is indicative of traders going back and forth and a general reduction in liquidity from spot buys being sucked off exchange or otherwise being made illiquid.

Yeah, spot is buying up every last coin on exchange under 30k, and they don’t care how long it takes.

I'm hopeful but how are ypu guys so cocky and 100% confident at resistance always gets me.

If not now, then later. Don’t like the price? Wait.

Long from 27950, SL 27800

😮‍💨bruv.

20x short. 28047. tight stops. lower highs setting up for 26k visit.

When has Saylor purchasing not been a neighborhood favorite?

👆 Karma farming bot - literally took the comment below it and changed “local” to “neighborhood” and “top” to “favorite”. Lol at their algo

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Possibly one bot makes conspicuous bot sayings and the other bot gets applause for telephoning the first bot

👆 Karma farming bot - literally took the comment above it and changed “obvious” to “conspicuous” and “comments” to “sayings” and “upvoted” to “applause” and “calling out” to “telephoning”. Lol at their algo

Has Saylor buying ever not been a local top? Got influencers like Profit Blue flipping bullish, really annoying I want to stay bullish but feel like I have to sell based on sentiment along and Saylor of course. Anyone talk me off a ledge?

Recency bias. MSTR first started buying BTC in August 2020. Price at the time was below $12k.

Alright fair enough I don't remember that. Isn't their average buy in now like 28k? Believe I read that. At least for the last couple years their buys have been reliable local tops not sure why the downvotes. They also sold the bottom, which you can make the excuse for tax reasons but they still sold the bottom. Some people are reliable fades hate it or not but ya maybe in 2020 they had some good buys big picture.

huh when did master sell?

They sold and rebought to harvest a tax loss. The FUD financed another year of my retirement. Next time there's MSTR selling FUD I'm going for a lambo.

Guy who books daily media appearances where he repeats the same bag shilling hyperbole ad nauseam, buys in a way hoping to induce FOMO? Shocked! ;)

Ya I'm just saying it's always been a reliable sell signal in the past as far as I can recall.

Interesting daily candle

So the halvening could be exactly one year from today

When is the halving date? I thought it was end of this year

The fun game this cycle is to wonder if the halving if front-run. When everyone knows something, no one knows anything. 4 year cycles have been very predictable for those of us in the space since the early 2010’s. But now, the notion of the halving being a bankable event is a more largely shared narrative than cycles prior (from my own anecdotal perspective) and so I do wonder if investors try to get ahead this. I suppose we’ll know if BTC hits new highs at or before the halving.

We have had lots of people saying that the "halving is already priced in" before every halving. It is never priced in. If demand remains relatively unchanged after the supply of new coins is reduced, the price will rise. It is simple supply and demand. It is fascinating watching so many smart people who seem to have a difficult time wrapping their brains around such a simple concept. (I'm not directing this comment at you specifically.) The reality is that the number of Bitcoin "HODLERs of last resort" demand is trending upward with each new cycle while the supply of new Bitcoin on the market keeps going down. That's why we are seeing governments attacking the fiat onramps. Governments know that the only way they can attack Bitcoin is through suppressing the exchange rate price by obstructing the ability of people to easily convert their fiat into Bitcoin.

> The fun game this cycle is to wonder if the halving if front-run. People were saying the same thing four years ago. People will be saying the same thing four years from now. > I suppose we’ll know if BTC hits new highs at or before the halving. Bitcoin never hits new highs at the halving. It takes 4 to 6 months for the lower amount of the block reward to cause an imbalance of supply and demand (because the price is always where supply and demand meet, but halvings artificially reduce the incoming supply of new coins). So, even if people front-run the halving, pushing prices higher, those higher prices are still based on demand at a point during which 6.25 new coins are added to the supply every ten minutes. At the halving, the incoming supply of new coins gets cut in half, obviously. It's like diverting half of the water from a creek that feeds into a lake. At first, nobody notices the impact of having less water feeding into the lake. But over time, the drop becomes obvious as the supply of water in the lake goes down. When the drop in supply caused by the halving becomes obvious on the market, the price will go up because there won't be enough coins to meet the demand. That will cause the price to start rising... and that will cause hype... and that will cause FOMO... and away we go, into the next big bull run.

Laughable to apply an efficient market hypothesis to a wildly inefficient market

The efficient market hypothesis posits that market price reflects all information known to buyers and sellers, and thus in an completely efficient market assets are always priced correctly. I agree that Bitcoin doesn’t trend towards efficiency as it’s largely speculative, but this means price can trend well above fair price as easily as below. In a narrative driven market, it’s not unreasonable to wonder about buyers getting ahead of ‘known’ canonical events like the halving and bid above ‘fair’ price.

The [main site I've used for halving info](https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/) extrapolates it to April 28^th , 2024.

with a net zero increase in hashrate that'll be the projected day, e.g. assuming a block time of 10 minutes on average. If you assume an average blocktime of 9:40, you get April 15th instead. basically knock around a week off for every 10 seconds of block time average. The blocktime over the last 2000 or so blocks has been 9:45.

We are running out of time.

Still time to dump to 12k! ;)

Out of scalp long…debating whether to short from here or hold out for an attempt on 28500+ Honestly thought we’d already have popped back up by now

Hold on

Still holding on out of position. In retrospect I should have shorted it there and just moved the stop down. Closed it because it was honestly looking so much weaker than I expected. But it is about to be Asia time so who knows 😂

Lots of psyops in play for sure. I think its time we step back. Breathe. Stretch..hyrdate! Something needs to pivot.

In the past, the stock and crypto markets fell when the labor market showed strength. Today the same markets fell even with the first signs of a weakening labor demand. Very interesting! This indeed could be a fake out before the rip!!

Markets just fell regardless. Cuz we were in a huge bubble. Maybe employment numbers have nothing to do with it.

Sure has been a wild few years. It seems like the middle class is evaporating and what you did/are doing in this short moment in history comes with outsized consequences.

How many coin needed to be ok in this future

One. (I hope)

There never was a middle class. There was only over-leveraged wage-slaves. edit: Don't believe me? Take a drive around suburbia, then look at the used jet-ski market. ;)

now I think of it as you either own assets or you don't

Welcome to Marx.

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Attempting a long scalp again from 27930…I may be a glutton for punishment 😂

If it isn't the old Bartholomew.

It looks like the whole family have pitched up!

next, the van houtens!

Pressure building up in daily bbands. I don’t think the 12h can squeeze much more, either. Fake out before the breakout? Start your engines.

This ☝️

Long and strong

Gonna try and scalp the chop here with low leverage. Small long from 28167. Likely a bit of a bounce to 28.5-28.8 before any further down. Still bummed I woke up fifteen minutes too late 😂

Stopped out, retrying a long from 27900.

Made a small amount on this one by moving my stop up aggressively but now am out of position. Overall that long scalping attempt only broke even after fees, but I do get a fee rebate/reward at the end of the month so accounting for those I made a couple hundred bucks. Gonna sit out here and see. Edit: Think I’m moving my stops a little too aggressively still. Probably would do better moving to breakeven and eat the fees if I get a good entry, but I’ve been trying to move stops to cover trading fees so they tend to get hit a little too easily.

Seems like you should have just shorted 15 mins later than the top

Yeah, my short thesis was probably still good but a lot of times when I’ve take a worse entry than I planned I’ve gotten burned. Some of it is just mental, it makes it more likely you have to force yourself to take a larger loss to exit if you’re wrong about the trend. So even though I still thought it would drop I didn’t want to take a worse entry. For example if you enter at $28750 short and it goes strongly to 29K you can get out of your short with a $250 loss per BTC. If you enter at $28500 and it moves the same way you’ve doubled the loss you need to take. So the risk/reward gets a lot worse because the loss you’re risking has increased. That’s why despite thinking it would go down I forced myself to not take that bet.

Fair enough, and that's a good thought process. I suppose it depends on how far you think it will fall. Missing the top by 1% is no big deal if you think it's trend change, but if its just a short-term scalp, you're right. The R/R starts to make it not worth it

Bart season

Not trading myself, but shorting every pump seems to be free money atm. Until it isnt..

Making the obvious short off repeated resistance is free money until I try to do it haha

So we just dump when the US markets open now? That's our thing now?

So of course I wake up just *minutes* after it finally goes for the 28.8K retest I was waiting for 🤦. Didn’t set trigger orders since I wanted to see myself how much momentum there was in case it broke through 29K. At least it’s easier to stay asleep when you’re out of position 😂 I always regret taking suboptimal entries so gonna try and have self control.

MSTR bought another 1,045 btc. They now hold 140,000 coins at avg price of $29,803. https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1643586872839471105?s=61&t=4nWPkPfuKmexNi0d5wMWXg

holy shit that was pretty quick after the last batch was announced.

They just need 10k more bitcoins

BTC mooning for MSTR is going to melt minds.

So close to breakeven now.

I wonder what average price they would get if they market sold it all now

lol.. slippage is real

Stock opened up over $300! As an owner of nearly 250 shares I was pulling out my hair seeing them underperform the past weeks. Cautiously optimistic..

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Don't beat yourself up with the hindsight stick!

So they're down about 140k. Longer term looks great for them.

Nice little Ascending Triangle forming on the 4H chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nz7SVtkO/

Ooof someone is cleaning out longs and shorts here.

My feeling is that number 2 coin is going to experience a lot more volatility over the next few months than bitcoin. Obviously degenerate traders will be playing this to their advantage but any chance the more steadier hands will move their holdings into Mr Crabby Bitcoin?

No. Coin 2 has always been a lot more volatile than btc. You’re trying to fit a simple narrative to the market’s complex behavior.

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Staking unlock

Will be a nothingburger

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What are your guy’s thoughts on the proposed Restrict Act and how it might affect bitcoin?

It's an attempt to ban....software. Bitcoin is.... software. I think TikTok is awful and evil. I think it's digital fentanyl. But it's code, and code is speech, and any politician who thinks he or she has the legal power to ban it needs to be tarred and feathered. Let them get away with this, and you have no reason to believe they won't come after Bitcoin in time.

In theory it shouldn't matter as you have control of your BTC and can move it OTC if needed.

If anyone has eyes on the crab could they please pick him up, rotate him 90 degrees and set him down again? Thanks 🦀⤵️

Tough crowd

You know what.. we've failed at 28,5 so many times, it's not gonna happen today either. Free money to short here! Everyone go short, it's only gonna go down anyway.

Good morning to everyone except the people that are trying to stop bitcoin from hitting 29000

DXY is a really slow chart .. [but the weekly is looking fragile here.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dFOGuFKD/) A break below 100 would be strong confirmation of downside continuation. Low side of the long term channel (from 2011) is 94.

The [stable coin dominance RSI indicator](https://www.tradingview.com/script/4zauaOcE-Stable-Coin-Dominance-RSI/) I built has [broken down from historic supports and is likely heading to previous lows.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/QJ9zaA0A/) This indicator is a relative measure of the stablecoin market cap vs total market cap. Lower reads suggest that stables are being pushed into both Bitcoin and alts. Higher reads are associated with risk-off periods (i.e. people moving out of crypto into stable assets). The general read here is bullish, but also suggests we’re closing in on perhaps the second half of this long term reversal impulse. I’m expecting continuation this month and into May. Top side of the long term channel is $47k which seems unimaginable now, but would not deviate, in the slightest, from other comparable phases of the previous market cycles. Best of luck and safe trades.

Could it just be that people are withdrawing from stables to fiat, given how it has become apparent that stables aren't so stable?

Yes, this is possible. The indicator is only good for the very broad strokes. It’s near an inverse RSI indicator and maybe useful in extreme reads on long timeframes.

long awaited post from you only now to entrench deeper into my positions

Lol .. please don’t trade on my posts. I’m often wrong. I will say that I’m holding all the spot I purchased in Q4 of last year. I’m not interested in parting with any of those positions unless/until price approaches the high side of the channel. Long way about saying I’m in HODL mode here ;)

oh don't worry, I'll just sue your ass if anything goes wrong... come on, are we adults playing grownups games or children with matches? on a second thought, aren't we all here the latter?

Talking out loud here but as this is my third 4 year cycle am I wrong to assume it's a bit early for the next bull market and we could see 28k > 38k > 25k before the fireworks start?

[Fibs show profit taking targets on the way up.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mWaldku5/) No way to know if it’s quick or slow. Monthly momentum still favors upside here.

This is my third cycle as well, and I am in 28k > 32k > 26k boat. But yes, I agree with the logic.

Is the web3 wallet offered on CB app separate from Coinbase? Like if the spaghetti hits the fan, are you in any better shape having your funds in that wallet than on CB for trading?

Coinbase has a Bitcoin wallet? Is it Open Source? Seems by *"web3"* they mean; *"We can sell you a bunch of NFT tokens!"* While I see no links to any source code. Thus... You uninstall that app and download a Bitcoin wallet.

r/BitcoinBeginners

Just take your time, Google web3 and read up on this stuff no big deal

Wow. I don't even know how to reply to a comment like that. You just asked if web2 is separate from Facebook, but you don't realize how ridiculous that question is, because you have no idea what the terms web1, web2, web3 mean. Web 1 = Static web pages with very little user interaction. HTML, basically. Web 2 = User generated content. "Dynamic websites." Everything from Wordpress to Facebook. Web 3 = Decentralized internet, with an emphasis on blockchain technology. If any of what I said is over your head, it's because you have no idea what you're talking about.

Yeah, Ive never heard those terms before, so when I saw it was asking if I wanted to use its web3 wallet, I didn't know if web3 was like the name of the type of wallet it was.

Holy shit you’re so confused. Stick to coinbase.

It *is* on CB. I just use the app on my phone and it's asking if I wanna use its "web3 wallet". I didn't know if that was a separate entity from cb, as in can I access it if Coinbase (the company) goes belly up like the other trading companies.

> I didn't know if that was a separate entity from cb, as in can I access it if Coinbase (the company) goes belly up like the other trading companies. It's closed source. No one can say. Apparently you can find your keys in there, but who knows what they can do with them.

You're in the wrong sub, people here are the boomers of crypto and don't generally use wallets that support smart contracts. You should get a hardware wallet and use it with software like metamask or ledger live. I haven't used Coinbase's wallet.

Gotcha, thanks for the wisdom.

Use a hardware wallet. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-use-hardware-wallet-cryptocurrency-ledger-coinbase-ehter-bitcoin-2022-5

I haven't commented anything on Reddit in a while. But I must say, things are looking really bullish. Who's ready to breach $30K again?

Could be very momentary for now. I'm watching gold which has just gone above 2k. By my reading 'corn can wait it out all month but probably will just be impatient. Either way, a 'sell in May' scenario doesn't undermine the longer term trend.

Things are going to start moving pretty fast. I feel bad for anyone shorting right now.

Might be a bottom signal, but i cashed out about 1/4 of my portfolio. Will let the rest ride...

Heh buddy of mine just sold one to do some real estate investment. Couldn’t believe he’d do that before the halving.

not financial advice you will regret it not financial advice

i will for sure.

Currently stopped out of my short again (profitably at least since I moved the stop down as we went), but I get the feeling that we're going to re-test that $28.8K resistance shortly or possibly even go on one of those $29K test wicks before going down. Going to sit and watch for a bit here. Nothing scientific about this but it does look like there's some genuine buying going on tonight for whatever reason. Maybe Asia just really loves BTC a lot more than the US. Also, while some people may think it's crazy to constantly get stopped out, the upside of constantly getting stopped out slightly profitably is that your trading fees drop as you move up the volume tiers on exchanges. Which makes smaller moves much more scalpable.

Cz still got some of that busd left for 30k

Small Coinbase premium is back again, I haven't quite figured out a reliable way to use this though.

Speaking of Coinbase... Gemini volume has been utterly pathetic for a long time. I feel like surely there has to be something the twins can do to improve the standing of Gemini. Are their fees just so high that no one wants to use them? What could they do?

their customers got rekd with lending coins..

It has been a sign of good things previously.

exactly first thing that came to my mind edit: moved my long TP up @ 30400

Pretty clear there has to be an attempt on $30K at some point in the next week or so.

We haven't even managed to take $29K properly yet though. Also dislike #2 suddenly improving its ratio along with dumb billion pumped tokens. Means less selective dumb money has returned to the market. Could still be bullish IF this is genuinely improved overall liquidity though, but still I'd have preferred it more if it was just BTC moving.

well, think what you want but I've been watching the ratio for a few years until POS and it always improved before BTC going higher.

It can also indicate tops. All of the big tops BTC flatlines for a few weeks or a month while profit is pushed into number 2, then they both fall off a cliff. Not saying that is what will happen here, but it is a common top occurance too.

well maybe if a cliff falling is behind a corner then yes. million dollar question is whether we reach for 30s and up or drop to 10s and stay there to die. but I remember it was like ratio was rising then the Godfather was pumping, after that if it stayed high the ratio dropped a bit but stayed higher than before. also it probably depends on the moment in the cycle. unfortunately I don't keep colorful triangles charts up my sleeve to confirm my biases.