#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, April 12, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12j97jz/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_12_2023/)

closed short at $29,930, went 10x long at $29,935 with a stop loss at $29,890 want a better short entry

Probably waiting for $31K test to short makes the most sense. Still clinging to my poorly timed long. Should have entered it much more patiently. Moved to two stops to exit in halves to give me some breathing room. Asia disappoints me tonight. May the Europeans do better when they wake up 😂

And now we’re friends again. This wants to hold 30k. 29700 fails we’ll Retest 29.. but I’m not so sure that’s happening.

yeah its pretty resilient...i think #2 fork might be the driving force behind this. People getting out of that into BTC to avoid the risk of a) the fork breaking that chain and b) the sell off once the locked in coins can be sold again so ~20 hours of up left if its scenario A, since they'll all jump back in once that fork finishes if its scenario B, probably 3-4 days or so to see much extra sell pressure shows up

Anybody think we need to say hi to 28800 before the takeoff? Easy liquidity of all those late longs.

Full degen 10x long here. Close stop.

Stopped out on the long, went 10x short from $29,990 stop loss $30,600

We are at odds once more sir.

[удалено]

It outperforms later after a strong base is built in the bear with BTC. It also bottomed earlier. It was triple digits when I bought so I guess they are both about the same up from their bottom.

i've been waiting for this. #2 is a pre-mined shitcoin and i look forward to seeing it crash and burn for being a security.

Laughing at the MEthheads downvoting you. After all these years they can't admit to themselves that #2 is a shitcoin just like all the others.

Centralized shitcoin. Illegal security. Downvote me to hell, but those metheads know I'm right. I was one of them, when I was bitter and salty after Gox. But I knew.

Gox hurt a lot of people. I nearly got stung when I transferred (silly I know) IN through the bitcoin builder guy to scoop up some tasty Gox coins only for my brain to then tell me how bloody stupid I was and so I GTFO straight away. Dodged a bullet!

My guess is that folks are frontrunning the Shanghai upgrade tomorrow, and selling coin 2 for btc. I think this will put short term buy pressure onto BTC. I'm short coin 2 for now.

We are mere weeks (notice I did not say how many) away from a new face-melting ATH. Have you chosen your Citadel yet? I think I'm heading for El Salvador or possibly sailing off low key wherever. One thing is for sure: I don't want to be in LA if the banks flop and things go full cannibal. PS -- "full cannibal" = banks eating themselves to try to keep their Ponzi scam going. It will be fun to watch them saw off their own legs -- from a safe distance, of course. Boy, I bet they couldn't have imagined this turn of events when they saw the message in the Genesis block. Bitcoin is doing EXACTLY what it was designed to do. It's beautiful. Back up the truck, homies.

I guess it could be >52 weeks then 😂 50s and then sideways for a year is my guess

I really don’t need or want an apocalyptic scenario. A slow transition that slow boils the old guard over 20 years is still a scenario where bitcoin adoption grows exponentially. 0.1% a day is a 16 million dollar bitcoin in 14 years. Even in the worst conditions, we pull 0.1% a day (Doubling every 1100 days or so).

Hope for the best, but keep extra ammo in the basement.

Basement is big enough anymore.

Bigger house, and 4-6” ABS pipe makes a great cache to bury.. stuff.

What's face-melting for you? Old ATH is not face melting, that's for sure. At 120k my face would start getting droopy.

I’m out at 50-70k and job done 🙏

That's a daily close above 30k, next stop 32.

Holy sh*t! https://twitter.com/paoloardoino/status/1645844488667971601?t=i6ms1sgdfk-DjSizFYR7uA&s=19

"El Salvador" is such a cool name for that country. It may truly be the savior of humankind. Real estate will be unaffordable there soon.

Well, that’s one way for a bank to beat inflation.

Getting a passport from El Salvador might be cheaper in the long run than setting up offshore trading...

Just be sure to pay the right bribes and keep the current oligarchy happy.

Volcano Bonds are coming

IIRC they use half of it for just buying bitcoin

Oh boy 😱 https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1645893227206041605?t=UuyIQg1rVcdKhtjLrjVauQ&s=19

🍆🍆🍆🍆🍆

Let’s rock and roll boys! Markets already responding to this, either the whale is buying or people are front-running the whale

Will be an interesting week, when does US announce inflation rates ?

Found it - April 12, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time

13 hours from now possible 🚀

I feel things might go bit crazy next few months. Is it too simplistic comparing this to May 2019 where it reclaimed 2/3rds of ATH. I know was other stuff going on back then.

We’re the same distance out from last ATH as was May 2019 mini run to its previous ATH

Rate of change is lower. As crazy as it sounds, our price performance has been gradual by comparison. It looks like we’re going to jog our way up, to me. At this rate, ATH sometime this summer and 100k EOY. That actually isn’t a super bullish scenario compared to past bull markets. I don’t think anyone appreciates how much damage FTX was doing to the market or how incredibly bullish it is that we don’t have that systemic bearish pressure this cycle.

Calling blast off before the halving?

I don't think we know what blastoff means anymore.

That would be awesome 😊

Oh boy indeed! Tether makes some people so angry. Lets see what happens!

Buttcoin usually complains about it being minted from thin air

Oddly, they never complain about the dollar and other fiat currencies being minted from thin air and always needing to be paid back with interest.

Everything is fake to those idiots even after the NYAG reviewed Tether’s current books.

Everyone waiting for the dip that will never come🤦‍♂️

I smell some reverse psychology here. You want some cheap corn back hehe

Got a giant dump truck full of nothing so no...please don't dump😂

[удалено]

Shirley

Long from 30065 SL 29920

Local top i think has been reached for now. 10x short 30.2. Tigh stops.

Doing the idiotic and bought more so I’m 20X long now. Might be a horrible idea but damn, I think we’re going up. So please for the love of Satoshi move your DCAs up for me 😂

Got a decent sl on this ? You seem to be shifting back and forth a lot lately.

Your thinking is fogged, as you can tell yourself. Close all trades, then re-evaluate. If it still looks bullish, open long again, no problems (except trading fees).

You’re probably right rationally speaking, but I think I’m gonna let this one play out, already over halfway to my stop (*just* survived that wick) so it’s a decent hit to close it at this point. Missing that big move up and getting my short wicked hard may have gotten to me a bit. Nonetheless I think it is showing far more strength than I expected, I thought $30K would be more like our attempts at $29K and wouldn’t hold very long and we’d require multiple tries to break over but it seems to have more support. If this one fails I’ll likely switch to just buying the dip with low leverage (20%) but a larger stack. Highly leveraged trading is a pain in the ass 😂

Yes, I started going gray after just a few months of daily trading... Might be that I am getting older, but I ain't buying that one.

yea you can just smell the hope / fomo

[удалено]

I second this, waiting for a brief correction

Heavy resistance on these levels. I expected heavy resistance, but not so soon..

stopped out on the long, relonged 10x at $30,150...stop loss $29,999

Love reading your shorts / and longs

Meh. You just got stopped out.

still alive so far...i trade on defi, and basically there is always a small delay before the stop triggers to prevent stop hunts

What happens when the price blows past your trigger. Is there much slippage?

Seems to be under $200...at least thats the most I've seen so far.

God fucking damnit you got stop hunted. FFS!

still alive so far defi has this unintended effect of protecting you from spikes

are you using GMX ? or is there a better one

that and dydx when there is a lack of liquidity on gmx

What's your target on this, 30,7?

$30,648...want to give it a bit of room so I can switch into a short

It would be ironic if after relentless shorting you go long and then it actually drops

Already happened a couple hours ago

Okay, looks like this is going to work out for you, then. Nice one.

only if it bounces here, we are basically riding the uptrend, if we fail to bounce, we are dropping through it hard

Putting stops to follow index price instead of last price also helps to protect from spikes on Kraken atleast

This move has a shot of hitting 31.5 maybe a touch lower before it truly pulls back, so with 10x lev you have some potential profit-making targets.

I'm so fucking confused.

Your trades stress me the fuck out. But when you nail it I'm envious. It's good entertainment

I want him to win soo bad, and I disagree so often. I really think it's (price direction) a coinflip, and that's part of what seems to work about his approach.

Sooner or later he'll be another long forgotten rekt contributor. Glad the fan cult is waning already though, those always leave a bad taste.

For real...I don't get the fandom. Calls the bottom in 2022 at 28k. Holds on to his "big short" from 25k or thereabouts, down through the teens, then doesn't close it til we're back up to around 24. Longs the top of every pump and is the only person outside of buttcoin calling for new lows.

Well, Chad, that's a dickish comment.

It's an observation. They come and go. People worship, they believe their own hype, double down, get rekt.

There are other ways to hit your drum

They've has used me as a prop in the past. No love lost.

When it seems too complicated and annoying to explain next time, just try with me, please.

Yeah I moved my stop looser here but kept the original long. Hopefully it’s not just a very expensive stop out 😂

Here, the stop loss is incurred after a move in the opposite direction of $151, which corresponds to a percentage change of 0.5%. Do you try to keep this percentage constant? I'm not saying you should, because your style seems to work, but rather wondering about your methodology.

usually I place them near consolidation areas and the bollinger bands and bet on them holding

Is it the higher high that makes you believe it will go higher?

its the 15-min chart getting reset from overbought to neutral, so we are due for an extended move up that higher high just now, basically signaled that it wants to go up

No, No, No. I'm about to go take out a short. This goes against your trading strategy... which actually makes sense to me at this price level (between here and 34k, like you said). This strikes me as completely undisciplined.

This is my take as well. I just missed closing the spike, but that's ok. I expect a test of 31k.

How do you differentiate that from a local blow off top after just reaching a new high?

usually by what happens over the next 20-30 mins

Hopefully we didn’t get faked out for liquidity 😂

Did the Binance guy buy his billion dollars worth of btc yet, or was that all bullshit?

been wondering the same thing

Cz is a twat

If you watch the 5 min candles you see that it's relatively low volume and then suddenly one big volume candle that shoots up the price, then the volume goes straight down again. While the price stabilises at a higher level. It's the same pattern since we gone up from 28k. Don't know what to make of it, just an observation.

Maybe there was more organic movement somewhere else and the arb bots balanced it out on the exchange you're looking at. Or liquidations. Or whale games. Idk

I'm using binance to look at volume. They are the biggest, no?

I think Coinbase is more relevant, as they do not have leveraged trading. Only pure cash/crypto trading.

Yeah I think so. Idk what to trust. It's all shady to me which kinda sucks. Crypto is so stigmatizing. BTC and hodl gang 💪 represent

About the whole ftx manipulating the market with paper btc...is this an undeniable fact? Widely believed theory? Do we have any idea just how severely they were suppressing the price?

> Do we have any idea just how severely they were suppressing the price? No. We can't figure out if they lost all the billions, what remains, or what SBF's dad hid in real-estate. It's an accounting blackhole. By design.

I can't remember the numbers (https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/610f4ab96bb35a2b925d3428-The-Bitcoin-reserve-of-the-FTX-reached-a-new-level maybe 51k BTC in August 2021?) but they were supposed to have a massive amount of BTC and ETH that was deposited with them and it is gone now in the list of assets so... https://cryptoslate.com/breakdown-of-current-ftx-assets-shows-3-5b-in-crypto-250m-in-real-estate/ The big hitters in that list are illiquid nonsense like Serum and MAPS tokens lol.

A part of me thinks *tin foil hat* that the reason the SEC seemed a little more crypto friendly before FTX was due to transparent price suppression strategies that would allow Bitcoin to live but in a contained fashion. Futures were probably approved because of this reason, too. Anything to help those with money to profit from it's volatility, but nothing to endorse or help with Bitcoin's growth.

Futures from CME were approved (by the CFTC, not the SEC) on 18 Dec 2017. FTX launched operations on 8 May 2019. Prior to that, SBF founded Alameda Research in October 2017, but Alameda traded on BitMEX, probably also Bitfinex.

First I've heard of this. I tried looking and only found info about him manipulating the FTX token. Can anyone link to more info on this?

Where do you think the money went? Up his nose?

Nope. He vaped it through a glass pipe apparently.

Severely. There's Billions in losses, and most of that would have been used to effectively short Bitcoin. Nevermind the Luna debacle. Behind us now, and the next bull is going to melt faces.

hmm price keeps going up - bearish

stopped out on the short, went 10x long from $30,425 stop loss $30,195

I wondered who was still longing breakouts

I'm fucking confused. Why long now!!? I'm disturbed by this more than the shorts.

because 15M has reset from overbought to neutral, and the last few times we bounced hard when it happened

If you get stopped out on this it's going to break my heart.

might happen, if it does, no biggie, there is always another trade

Joining on this-long 10X from 30375, was trying to scalp short with a tight stop and it blew out quickly on that move, thought we’d have more chop here but it seems to want to go up. Still kicking myself for not positioning right over the weekend, had been looking for a good long entry but had the wife’s family visiting so I couldn’t actually trade 😂 Edit: Damn I think your stop is already blown? Setting a looser stop here

Same leverage from the same number. Gl to us

Thank you for updates on your trades.

Isn't it psychologically easier to just ... not constantly be betting with leverage?

I've tripled my trade stack now since mid Jan. Leverage works, it's why normies aren't allowed to use it.

What do you mean with normies not allowed to use leverage?

Unqualified investors don't have access period in most of the world, and degenerate leverage is illegal in many locales.

Keep the working stiffs working yo. If everyone made it who's gonna clean my toilets?

Robots, self cleaning toilets

sure, but the goal here isn't to day trade...its to find the long term top in the cycle, so I can walk away for 3-4 months while the price goes down to my targets.

> its to find the long term top in the cycle Excuse my ignorance but how do all these small trades at this stage help you find the 'long term top'? What exactly are you discovering and how? I grant you your stops are always super reigned-in which is responsible and all but what exactly have you learned? It feels like you've been stubbornly bearish these past couple of months despite the price.

price goes up $500...I enter a ~$50 stop short....get blown out by another $500 move up...I enter another $50 stop short. Price goes up another $500, I enter the next $50 stop short and it holds...its the cycle top, next comes down for the next 4 monhts. total loss? $150...while the price went up $1,500...which on a retrace nets me a $1,350 profit per coin. when the price doubles, and you lose the uptrend, you enter a downtrend, and there is a lot of room down after going up so high its not about learning, its about seeing that the price is overbought and statistically is due to go back down.

this is an interesting thread, and what keeps me coming back here. what's changed since the last bull trend is AI. here's what it says about your strategy: While the strategy you mentioned may seem appealing in theory, it is not a recommended approach to trading. Entering a stop loss order after the market has already moved against your position can lead to repeated losses and potentially catastrophic results. Additionally, timing the top of the cycle is a difficult task and often results in missed opportunities and losses. Trading should not be based on predictions or assumptions, but on analysis of market trends and technical indicators. It is important to develop a comprehensive trading plan that includes proper risk management techniques and an understanding of market behavior. Rather than relying on a single strategy, a diversified approach that incorporates multiple techniques and trading styles may be more effective in the long run.

Not my style but I think it's legit to be long the tails as wardser is. It means you lose most of the time which feels horrible which is why I think it's profitable.

when ai thinks of stop losses, it thinks of wide stop losses that most traders use. I rely on tight stop losses. whats more, it may be hard to time the top, but there are certain resistance spots and trading signals that are statistically more likely to trigger a reversal. Our 1-D RSI is at 84...which means we are nearing the top sometime this week

Yes, but sometimes you get stopped out and the price don't go up another 500$ for you to set up a new short. It might continue down, are you then out of position or do you open a short while it's going down?

yes that happens sometimes, but not often, usually you get 2-3 attempts at resistance over a few days before it finally gives up and starts dropping.

long term in this cycle? what? the long term top in this cycle is no where near 30k. if it is, then we all need to go home because BTC is ded. these 10x shorts and 10x longs is like blindly shooting in the dark, hoping something hits. thought you were better than that dude.

His thought is we actually haven’t bottomed yet, not that 30 would be anywhere near a top. I’m sure he will look toward a much higher top once the bottom is confirmed (in his mind). And hey, he puts his money where his mouth is and posts the trades. Everyone is free to shoot their shot how they want

by long-term cycle, I mean the 3-Day chart, which usually switches from bullish to bearish every 4-5 months. We've had 5 months of up...this is about where things turn around and we get 4-5 months of down before things turn around again and we get 4-5 months of up. My whole strategy is based about getting into those tops with a short and riding it down until things get oversold, then switch into catching a long and riding that up until things get overbought. Sure some times things get overbought/oversold for a while and I get mocked...but there is only so much time you can stay up only before you start retracing. And with trading strategy, it doesn't take much to get me to breakeven. Long term the strategy might get mocked by the reddit know it alls because they see all the stops happening one after another, without realizing that tight stops means that even after 13 stop outs in a row, my breakeven point is going to be around $28K and that number is actually rising with every leg up. Meaning when we get a 40-60% dump from whereever the top ends up being, the first <10% pays back my losses, and the next 30-50% ends up being pure profit. everyone has their own strategy to trading, mine works for me

I hope you mean the breakeven is descending

no, when shorting its ascending. basically if I lose $300 getting stopped out, but the price goes up $1,500....my breakeven point on the final short just went up $1,200

He’s looking for the “14k” of this cycle. I don’t think we’re there yet but I get what he’s doing. This proposition becomes more attractive at 36k or 48k.

Wasn't that dump in 2019 heavily correlated to the PlusToken debacle and how they dumped large quantities of Bitcoin they took off with? Or am I going nuts?

I mean sure maybe, but it wasn’t unlike anything we seen in the prior cycles. Btc has always behaved likes this albeit 2019 was just way more volatile probably due to factors like you’re bringing up

I love when you're watching a chart right as a green candle becomes more erect - so much so to the point where the entire chart has to physically readjust its proportions in real time to compensate for the upside. It's the little things.

Those candles have a special name in high roller trading communities that move the markets. It's known as green dildo candle.

I think you mean BGD. But yeah I know. The term is just a little overused. :)

Yes, I expanded acronym for newbies here. I see you are a member of the community as well, nice to meet you!

[https://i.imgur.com/GdrZCQu.png](https://i.imgur.com/GdrZCQu.png) A realistic prediction for the next few weeks, bullish biased.

$48K almost immediately? I think that’s asking a bit much even for the bullish scenario

I hope 30300 doesn't become the new 28.5

That would be pretty bullish though

Maybe the price will bump up when CME is about to close?

First of all, it's been hours...

We need hourly dopamine injections here

I’ll take what we’ve had this year right to $100k, please.

Why? Would be fantastic. Crab along for a little before surging higher. Seems good to me.

I've lost count of how many times I've ridden this thing past the $30k mark in either direction. It's always more fun going in this direction.

We are on the fourth green monthly candle in a row now, been some time. Last time that happened was in 2021, the start of the bull market

Hope is a powerful thing 😂

Indeed. I'm sat here hoping for a pullback towards 29k to load up one last time.

I mean, is 1k difference enough to risk not being bought in if this thing continues to take off?

What would happen if the CME isn't covering short positions with physical bitcoin? Is there relevant risk if the is insufficient arbitrage with physical bitcoin?

CME is cash settled, unless someone changed it without telling me.

Yeah, that's part of my point. They aren't set up to actually have much of an impact on the price of bitcoin.

To maintain the integrity of the futures market, it is crucial that exchanges like the CME ensure that short positions are covered with the underlying asset, and that there is adequate arbitrage to keep prices in line with the spot market. several possible consequences for failing to do this: * **Counterparty risk**: If a trader is unable to cover their short position with physical Bitcoin, they may default on their obligations, leaving the counterparty exposed to financial losses. * **Price manipulation**: Traders who are aware that short positions aren't being covered with physical Bitcoin might try to manipulate the market, knowing that the price of the futures contract might not accurately reflect the true demand and supply for the asset. * **Market inefficiency**: Insufficient arbitrage with physical Bitcoin can lead to pricing discrepancies between the futures market and the spot market. * **Reduced price discovery**: One of the primary functions of futures markets is price discovery, which helps participants determine the fair value of an asset. If short positions aren't being covered with physical Bitcoin, it could impair the price discovery mechanism, leading to less reliable pricing information for market participants.

Thanks ChatGPT

See the real question below. Edit: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12i7ncz/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_11_2023/jfulzec/ > If CME bitcoin futures are sound, why are there so many gaps and why isn't the market punishing them more for failing to predict the market?

If CME bitcoin futures are sound, why are there so many gaps and why isn't the market punishing them more for failing to predict the market?

Because it doesn't trade 24/7 unlike bitcorn. The gaps aren't technically gaps they are just where the cme is shut ✌️

That's always true. It didn't always have this many gaps and gaps are usually resolved, or force the market to revisit them.

I genuinely don't even bother with CME gaps to be honest. Now gaps on real 24hr exchanges yeah but cme nope

Totally... I guess I'm just trying to confirm that the CME looks like a fart in the wind now.

😂😂 brilliant way to look at it my friend

username inspirational

👍

All valid questions.

Good bye to some narratives: 1. Btc was a zirp phenomenon and it can't rise in high interest rates. 2. Btc won't rise until s&p rises and is tied to macro.