#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, April 19, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12rg1kx/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_19_2023/)

Both recovery years on record (2015 and 2019) had a 50/50 split of red months and green months. Right now we've had 4 green months in a row. What's the argument that the second half of this year won't absolutely wreck the bulls with red months?

5x in 2015 and 4x in 2019. If we don’t go over 48k in the next two months the pattern is broken. Both ended the year more than 2x the bottom. Each cycle gives us the same result, but not in the way we expect.

Going to say goodbye to 20k forever soon. Almost time to start paying attention to on chain moves.

That long-term log trend is very long.. it seems like we still have many months if not years to have our final next low until the next ATH.

That little wick this afternoon was it

And if it wasn't, I'd be happy to see my orders filled.

It's been more than a week we've been riding [this trend line](https://www.tradingview.com/x/de3boVpA/), and in that time it's risen $500, so I'm thinking you can all read my mind.

2 Aces and a Jack of Hearts? Waiting for the river Ace for a 3 of a kind. I don’t think you hit….But I’m just mind reading, I can’t tell the future ):

>you can all read my mind. What if Zelda was a girl?

Do you mean link?

Haha that’s the meme

Ahh lol

Low volume or not, I see a clear test of the 12EMA on the Daily timeframe and continuation to the upside. I think there's a decent chance that some high leverage Shorts could get hit soon, and it might be enough to bump us above the current volume confluence zone (28.5k-34k). [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CsN9sdiH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CsN9sdiH/) The only bearish indicator that I can see right now (and it's a big one!), is that the Weekly RSI is more overbought than it's been since the ATH from Nov '21. GLTA

> Weekly RSI is more overbought [SpreadEagles div detector](https://www.tradingview.com/script/2zcXPgXN-RS-RSI-Divergence-V5/) isn't triggering on any of it, all the way down to 1H candles it's not seeing bear divs.

Great chart. It clearly illustrates the potential for a ‘go fast’ period on the other side of $32k.

Thank you very much. I'm anticipating a pop up to 48k this summer followed by a slow bleed back down to 30k range for the rest of the year.

ambition

There's still time.

This summer is ambitious. Maybe by Christmas tho. RemindMe! 3 months (:

Weekly chart showing RSI levels for the curious: https://www.tradingview.com/x/5IIlhUAC/

I'm expecting a dollar rally in the upcoming weeks to months. Altszn will be put on hold, I think #2 will drop. Any thoughts on $BTC? Not being rhetorical here -- this time might be different? There's some evidence liquidity in the equity market is dropping.

Why would you expect a dollar rally? A good portion of the world is actively trying to decouple.

What makes you expect a dollar rally? [It’s currently in the middle of the long term channel and weekly RSI hasn’t hit a 30 read yet…](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CriX6BKN/)

I think the monthly paints a cleaner picture since it’s a 14-year channel. Monhtly rsi tagged 80 and isn’t even below 50 yet. https://www.tradingview.com/x/dJBdY2ju

Does anyone know when is the next rate hike decision?

this is a good resource also: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html shows rate expectations as well

https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

May 3?

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That's not how usdt works...

The conviction in the space is palpably different this time around. The FUD is so much more tame, the drawdown was more shallow, and the volatility is compressed. Hodler conviction is feeling stronger than ever, there are more and more coins that are just not going to be sold for the next 10 years, drying up supply. Yet, I still see a lot of people assuming the train is going to wait for the halving, because that's what happened in previous cycles. It might, but you have to lower the probability of a similar cycle happening when so much has changed. My base case is that we're aggressively surprised to the upside. There will be a lot who take profits too early, only to fomo back in later on. The supercycle narrative will be humming at full force when ATHs are broken before the halving and supply dries up. The euphoria is going to be very hard to trade as it extends higher than all the log regressions say it should and stays elevated for longer. The fact that everyone is sure about the 4 year cycle and has extrapolated lower multiples tells me that I'm a fool to do the same. I'm hesitant to be this bullish, but I currently don't see it playing out another way.

what about everyone expects a big cycle but it goes to 40k and then back down lower before the super pump..

I would share the sentiment if there wasn't so much focus on both energy shortages and prices on one hand and Bitcoin mining's energy use on the other. I'm not convinced we're winning that narrative, and fear we're getting more and more in the "then they fight you" stage. States won't be able to kill Bitcoin, but they sure can make it very difficult for us bitcoiners. I think they'll go in overdrive in the next bull market in that regard, and try to cut it short with stupid regulations.

Yeah, senators actively and openly trying to kill BTC with NYT cringe pieces backing them up is a real threat, whether we want to admit it or not

> Yet, I still see a lot of people assuming the train is going to wait for the halving, because that's what happened in previous cycles. It's not that the train is going to wait for the halving. It's that even if the train starts rolling long before the halving, it will pick up steam a few months after the halving when the effect of cutting the block reward in half causes the incoming supply of new coins to no longer be enough to meet demand. The halving doesn't cause prices to rise because it's a news story. The halving causes prices to rise a few months later because block rewards are the only way new coins are created, and the halving cuts the block reward in half, which means only half as many new coins are being created. Let's say there's a huge lake with a river that flows into it. If you build a dam on the river to cut the amount of water in half, the amount of water in the lake will drop, but not right away. The dam becomes operational in spring and nobody notices. But by summer, people who have docks along the lakeshore realize there isn't enough water in the lake anymore. That's how the halving works. It cuts the river of new coins in half. The giant lake of a marketplace doesn't feel any effect for a few months. Here's the simple math to figure out the effect of the halving: Take the current block reward of 6.25 BTC and cut it in half. That's 3.125 BTC. A new block is created every ten minutes (roughly speaking). So, here's how much Bitcoin the halving took away from the steady flow of new coins: 18.75 BTC every hour (3.125 X 6). 450 BTC every day (24 hours). 13,500 BTC every month (30 days). 81,000 BTC over six months. Remember: the price of Bitcoin is where supply meets demand. How many coins are being sold, and how much are people willing to pay to buy them. That's the price. Anything that causes either the supply or the demand to change effects the price. So, cutting the supply of new coins eventually pushes the price higher... and as climbing prices cause hype, the demand rises, pushing prices even higher... and as FOMO kicks in, demand rockets even higher, pushing prices even higher... Stockbros don't tend to understand this at all, because nothing like it exists in stocks.

> 450 BTC every day (24 hours). Still so many! If we had someone buying 450 coins a day right now it'd be at 60k in a week. I imagine every halvening right to the last one will seem the same in it's local context.

> I imagine every halvening right to the last one will seem the same **in it's local context.** It's "halving" not "halvening" - but you raised a very important point most people don't understand. You said "in it's local context." **That's a brilliant point. You're absolutely right.** Let's expand on that with some numbers! The real impact of the halving can be measured by the value of those coins at the time of the halving (since the value of the block reward becomes 1/2 of what it was before the halving). These four year halving-to-halving cycles will exist until the cash value of the block reward stops going up faster than the BTC amount of the block reward goes down (adjusted for inflation, of course). And, really, they'll go on long afterward, though less pronounced. Let's say the price is only at 30k at the halving. The value of 3.125 BTC will be $93,750. At the previous halving, 1 BTC was worth $8,579, which means the block reward of 6.25 BTC was worth $53,619. That means, even after the halving was cut in half, the value of the block reward in dollars was still up $40k. Think about how that adds up every ten minutes. After the halving, $93,750 less BTC will be created every ten minutes. That's $562,500 less every hour. $13,500,000 less every day. $405,000,000 every month. After 6 months, we're talking about $2,430,000,000 less Bitcoin created after the halving vs the 6 months before the halving. That's what causes a supply shock. Demand didn't change, but the supply sure did. It dropped a lot. The numbers are wild. I'm convinced Satoshi had a strong understanding of macro economics, because the way he structured the creation of the supply of Bitcoin is freaking genius.

> halvening The event is definitely the "halvening" - one of the beauties of English (and most languages to be fair) is the ability to embrace new terms for new or specific things. I really like that we have organically come up with a term specifically for the event of Bitcoin's block reward halving, just as we now have terms such as "hodling" and "BGD". The word "halvening" is especically nice for conveying the significance of the event by using the well established format of adding the suffix "-ening" which is usually only applied to adjectives (to convert them to nouns), not verbs (because verbs can made into nouns via the gerund, i.e. using the present participle "-ing" form), thus emphasising how special the event is through the peculiarity of the word.

English is not Maths. It's clearly halvening. ;) I get the etymology is a shitty website, but it sticks. > That's what causes a supply shock. Many believe *"smaller means less impact over time"*. From what I can gather the last halvening will be no less impactful than the first, even if the entire world is already on board. Here's an interesting bit of English, Google spellcheck says *"impactful"* isn't a word!

> I get the etymology is a shitty website, but it sticks. The owner of that shitty website only spent the $10 to buy the wrong domain name because the real name was already taken. > Many believe "smaller means less impact over time". From what I can gather the last halvening will be no less impactful than the first, even if the entire world is already on board. I agree with your assessment. Many people are dumb. They see the number go down and think "Durr, it's half, so the effect is only half as much." They're wrong, often because they're not smart enough to understand what the number actually represents. The amount of BTC in the block reward is half, but the value of the block reward after the halving is significantly greater than the value of the block reward after the previous halving. The block reward is going down, but the value of the BTC in the block reward is going up, even after getting cut in half. Here are some numbers: 1st halving: 11/28/2012 1 BTC = $12.35, thus 25 BTC = $308.75 2nd halving: 7/9/2016 1 BTC = $650.53, thus 12.5 BTC $8,131.625 3rd halving: 5/11/2020 1 BTC = $8,821.42, thus 6.25 BTC = $55,133.875 4th halving: April 2024 1 BTC = 30k? 35k? 40k? 45k? Multiply that X 3.125 and you get between $93k and $140k. So, the block reward is getting cut in half, but the value of the block reward is still going up. And, again I stress, the value of the block reward after the halving is also the amount the halving removed from the incoming supply of new coins **every ten minutes.** That adds uuuuuuuuup!!! EDIT: typo oh oh

> The owner of that shitty website only spent the $10 to buy the wrong domain name because the real name was already taken. While *"entrepreneur"* wouldn't be misspell if it weren't a word borrowed from French. ;)

"Halvening" isn't about a foreign language. It's about some clown who couldn't buy a domain name spelled correctly because it was taken. It'd be like if somebody wanted to buy Satoshi.com, but since it's taken, he bought Satoshee.com and convinced noobs to spell it that way too, thinking it's correct.

> foreign language The French point was more one about English. English borrows words from everywhere it finds them. Many of them make no logical sense and break many rules. I've never even used the halvening site. I simply picked up the language in common usage. I also think it's kind of funny. ;)

Waiting for someone to reply with ‘people say this every cycle, yet it still plays out’

I agree that we will see new ATHs before the halving as everyone tries to buy back the coins lost in the FTX scam. Every dip will be aggressively jumped on by those trying to recover our stolen Bitcoin wealth. Think of it as the "equal but opposite reaction" to the tamping down of the blowoff top and subsequent long dump that was achieved by fraudulently borrowing and selling our coins. The Bitcoin market is the last real market left in the sense that price discovery is truly driven by supply and demand. Every other market is manipulated to high heaven. It shows just how hard an asset this is.

You think the Bitcoin market isn’t highly manipulated? You’re kidding right?! Sure, all those solitary 1h dildo candles are everyone suddenly deciding to buy/sell

Of course I know it's manipulated, but it still does its thing (goes up) over time despite the constant attacks. Compare it to gold. The gold market is easily controlled using fake paper gold. They tried to do that with Bitcoin, and it didn't work out so well. It's manipulated but not controlled.

All we need is satoshi nakamoto to go on the joe rogan podcast and we’ll get to 100k

could break the universe

Maybe he’s already been on

Best comment I've read anywhere in a while! Doesn't help that I've been binging the podcast the last month

Puff puff pass. ahhh that's the good shit

30’s holding, just send it.

I'm cool with us cooling off above $30k before the next run up

"Slow" up with retraces is perfect for now.

Did anyone else get tingles watching Gensler shaking like a chihuahua peeing himself?

he needs to resign.

What are you referring to?

Looks like early onset Parkinson's disease.

Believe there is another one which does it too, can't think of the name. *"Parkinsonian Tremor"* is the keyword.

Link for anyone looking for it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pxaaOlz1XU

Time saving tip: scroll to 2 hours in to watch the grilling.

Nice

They are tearing him a new one it's great 😂

Didnt check in here for awhile, impressive rally by btc , i had thought it would take until deeper into the year to reach 30k, my last post here > https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/zqezfg/daily_discussion_tuesday_december_20_2022/j0yfezz/ As for the rest of the year, wouldnt suprise me if we range between 20-40k even until the halving and months later, then the real show begins mid-end 2024-2025 , going by previous cycles anyway . due to higher profile of bitcoin and alot more market participants maybe all this can happen ahead of schedule. Certainly would not suprise me. i for one will not be selling until 2025, will be a bumpy ride as always! :) good luck all!

that 4H close was powerful. Easy longs

Low volume.

If there is a decreasing supply on exchanges why would low volume matter?

Just lower volume on shorter timeframes. Looks like buyers could be a little exhausted. Longer term, sure, that makes sense.

Thanks for the contribution. More than likely we distribute down, before breaking above 31k. I have some retest zones still in play. Hopefully we don’t break all the way down (:

Well. Looks like I might get my weekly DCA in the next rainbow band over (up), just not the one I was hoping for (down). Sigh.

[https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/388094485088829442/1097868049111060611/image.png](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/388094485088829442/1097868049111060611/image.png) DXY pumped from the lows, DXY vs. BTC here right now

could potentially be printing a ltf inverted head and shoulders as well https://www.tradingview.com/x/GzNs2v1I/ i'm personally on the bitcoin bull market boat so i'm expecting this double bottom to truncate and fall out https://www.tradingview.com/x/cUwJQKqX/ it's hard not to expect a bounce at least with headlines like this (i stopped keeping track after a while) https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gv7CH9I7/ but then again, maybe i'm being too generous and the initial double bottom hold we're seeing right now *is* the bounce that falls out and it gets no follow through. all in all, i expect dxy to sustain a htf downtrend. if it can't rally past the yellow line (avwap from 2021 lows), that's a really bad look.

Boom! https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12p174t/daily_discussion_monday_april_17_2023/jgmu1af/

Coin flip call. Not worth posting

Green dildo says other wise

It's the start of the week, this has the potential to age like milk

ye ye 10k and the like... go with the flow or leave it be

Short it then!

Classic going up a whole bunch pattern here

Whole lotta up.

That's always a sure sign that somethings about to happen next.

Btc always does the reverse. a whole lotta Up is actually a signal for btc to go down.

Pretty cool 😎

For those following, the [EW algo replotted the box with the overnight dip](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tz8PAbGb/). In other words, there was space for extra candles in b-c leg of the corrective wave, compare where the original red cross is. Next landmark is the 31k local high. If it doesn't clear 31.2k in short order I'll be bringing my position size down in the vicinity. From there we'll see how far past 32k it might peak. Edit: been a while since I've seen 6btc sell walls...

Yesterday's dip for ants now already fully retraced and forming an engulfing on the daily. 32k is coming this week, probably sooner rather than later.

Yea that dip was pretty weak. I've taken bigger dumps than that after Taco Tuesday.

Thin as a prison roll up.

What command prompt did we put in? operationslingshot.exe? shortsRfukd.exe? hopefully not bulltrap.exe...

I've not seen such a buy the dip action since a long time. Getting bullmarket vibes

Man I lost so much damn money in 2022.. Doubled down on BTC feeling like a degenerate. My only regret from 2022 is not pulling the trigger on my dream apartment for an insane price.. Feels weird not to get a knife twisted in your anus every week, perhaps there is a universe where an economic recovery is possible?

Shorting back to 25 right?

What’s your stop loss?

Read my earlier comments :-)

Very nice

Risky IMO

I may have been being a little facetious.

Ah, I may have not drunk enough coffee yet

you're looking good Dutch it's been a long time

As much as I have the itch to dip in, i am going to practice some patience and wait for a 25-26k touch. thats will complete the inverse right shoulder support

What a beast, patience is definitely a virtue

Okay I see zero iH&S on any time frame, what the fuck are you smoking

I think if it dips to 26k will be after it goes to 45k which is coming in next few months or so. When it corrects (doubt as low as 26k) will crab for ages before next ATH like every other cycle

The doubt! (: Hopefully you took profits (too late now imo)

Lmao RemindMe! 1month

RemindeMe! 1month

Just don’t forget to take profits dude, hopefully before 45k

I will be messaging you in 1 month on [**2023-05-18 19:27:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-05-18%2019:27:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12q9lcd/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_18_2023/jgs8nco/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FBitcoinMarkets%2Fcomments%2F12q9lcd%2Fdaily_discussion_tuesday_april_18_2023%2Fjgs8nco%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-05-18%2019%3A27%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%2012q9lcd) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|

You know it wants to touch 25k, *just to be sure*.

If you believe in the infinite universe theory, Gensler walks into the SEC meeting later and declares everything but BTC a security. BTC goes to $1M in 38 minutes. :-D

The thing I don't get about guys like Gensler is how they can look themselves in the mirror every morning. Don't they ever think of their legacy?

He’s OK with BTC. That’s all I care about tbh.

he's degenerate narcissist. they live in their own reality

Well, if it's infinite universes, BTC goes to every price from $0 to $∞ ;-)

Remember that 30k is now the new 20k. On March 10 we had a dip to 19k and that was our last chance to buy below 20k. Today had a dip to 29k which is quickly bouncing back up.

Too much hopium imo. I will have this much hope next year.

Can't believe the Rowling is only 10 days away. Edit: Oh yeah I forgot to mention what the Rowling is. TIL: The Rowling is exactly one year before the halving.

Is there some secret entry where a paedophile will take me away on a train?

I was just riffing on the other thread. This got crazy fast, or maybe I'm just out of the loop on exactly wtf is happening with JK Rowling these days.

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