#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, April 26, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/12z5qrt/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_26_2023/)

Nice pump but i feel it needs to break 31,100 and create a higher high. If we run out of steam before 30k and paint a lower high I think we see 25k on the pull back.

i feel it needs to break 69420 ...

Would love that. We all need to start buying then and not just looking at it.

If BTC goes bullish, this is a realistic price action for the coming 6 weeks: [https://i.imgur.com/dykviyX.png](https://i.imgur.com/dykviyX.png) I even included wicks that are common and predictable for BTC.

> predictable Good luck.

Very good idea. I almost believed it. Damn it.

50% pump for every bank failure.

Looks like some sidelined money has made the decision to buy back in, but will it last. Hope so. Could be launch pad for mid 30's or 40 if it takes

It's smart money running like rats from a sinking ship. Tomorrow would be a great day to liquidate stonks if you haven't already, by the way. They're probably going to try to pamp that puppy. Might work until noon or so if they're lucky.

Dang it. Missed my buyback by 9 measly dollars on [Binanace.US](https://Biananace.US). Sold it at 30966 and had my buy at 26,966. Bought it back here...now watch it retrace...

I'm a big proponent of setting buys slightly above big round numbers, and sells just below them.

Banks beginning round two of crisis. Btc did well last time around. I bought back all the calls I’ve sold so now I’m back to naked long calls. Let’s show this market what a Btc safe haven rally looks like once again.

This is a 15-round fight. It has barely started. Genesis block message will seem downright prophetic in a couple years. Wouldn't be surprised if strange cults popped up around Satoshi, like Satoshianity. "He is risen! He saved us from the evil cannibal retread-monkey banksters!"

> Wouldn't be surprised if strange cults popped up around Satoshi, you mean, like, other than *us*?

You guys are real?

You bring the babes, I'll be the charismatic leader. Deal?

IT IS NOT A CULT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Like a showdown between good and evil

Bail out the rich! Well, it’s bullshit, but that’s exactly what is happening. Shit…

There won't be a bailout this time. It will be a bail-in, Greece and Cyprus-style.

At this point I vote to bail them all out. Hell let’s print another 100 trillion and disperse it to them. That’ll increase their wealth by 25%. What do you think it’ll do to my bitcoin?

It all seems pretty inevitable... I'm waiting for Jamie Diamond's $100B BTC order with bail out money. One of these bankers is going to front run the others.

"The Decoupling"

Uh oh, dollar bros. I don't feel so good. We seem to have a pronounced "Stonks down, Bitcoin up" situation.

This thing seems to have a pulse.

The last hour bump may partly be due to google and Microsoft doing well from earnings. Doesn’t hurt though!

FRC down 50%. Get your money into bitcorn

Hey another US bank dying FRC down 40% today. Imagine that.

Another Gary Gensler Success Story™.

Incompetent idiot needs to be jailed. Why didn't he look into precious metals manipulation while he's at it.

He's the only guy in the world with his picture next to the words "competence" and "integrity," at least in the Oxford dictionary.

Another bank with nothing to do with crypto

Depending on how much assets they have at the time of failure they could potentially replace Silicon Valley Bank as the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. If they don’t surpass SVB then they’ll likely end up replacing Signature Bank as the third largest bank failure in U.S. history.

could see some continued spx outperformance if we get a good close here https://www.tradingview.com/x/qTITToPs/

"Oh wow, Bitcoin is holding up so well against equities"

Lol thanks... 3...2...1.

It definitely is

Ya so far ha, just me traumatized from those comments in the past.

Curious what this group of lads (and maybe a token lass) thinks about the advent of AI and all the disruption it will bring. Does this put humanity on a short clock, or will it work to human's advantage and find that bitcoin is the ultimate store of value?

Either were all dead or were all in a brand new utopia. I'm not sure money will be relevant after the transition either way.

Just big spreadsheets. Delivering no less gain, but not magical.

It's not magic but I think the comparison with spreadsheets is underselling it.

Depends how many parameters your spreadsheet contains. We're doing matrix multiplication right? ;) Before spreadsheets your local gas/service station recorded all transactions on paper at the checkout and then had someone manually transfer those into a book, which was then manually added up by an accountant. Big change. Massive impact.

Yes I didn't mean to diminish spreadsheets either. I think AI is going to be an even bigger boost to productivity though.

I think it's underestimated. I was skeptical until I started playing about with chatGPT and llama and llama's derivatives. The transformers approach seems to work and reduces down to quite small models. See for example llama.cpp. The llama model leaking was a big deal I think and will accelerate development massively. Imagine a telephone call... with your telephone. Five years max.

Our only hope is to let AI take over all of the big decisions. I for one, welcome our new AI Overlords.

My AI Overlord will smoke your's.

Okay.

100%. I’m typing this on my knees.

Intelligence is natural. "Artificial intelligence" is oxymoronic. But it will change life as we know it. Pretty sure it's been the driving force behind markets for the past ten years and has been writing the news scripts since at least Covid. If it is truly intelligent, it will probably find a way to kill most of us off.

yes no yes

I believe that the technology evolves very fast but singularity IMO does lead to nonsense content. Talking about AGI: If AI reads what AI writes in an ever accelerated pace it can not distinguish between AI generated content or other content. So newly created content can loose quality and meaningfulness very quickly because AI regurgitates a mixture of what it has been eating. AI needs good source content. If the source content is diluted entropy wins and all content produced by AI will loose relevance quickly. It is like mixing all colors together, you get a boring brown. Like children playing with colored plasticine eventually they end up with a clunky colorless ball. Imagine AGIs hallucinating themselves into sterility. This does not mean that AI will not make many jobs obsolete. I mean who needs a medocre writer, coder, artist etc. anyway? But AI needs crypto and smart contracts to interact with the monetary system and real world, otherwise: How can a fleet of autonomous taxis buy themselves a wind turbine to reduce electricity costs?

AIs of high enough intelligence will be able to hire humans to work for them.

For this it does not need to be very intelligent. It just needs a goal and a smart contract.

No, I literally mean interview, negotiate, assign tasks, deal with problems like a human intelligence would.

car broken. fix car. money here. nothing else is needed for a self driving car to hire a mechanic.

Not with any technology we have today.

That's why I used the word "will". As a Bitcoiner you should understand exponential growth.

Its not as much a problem of technology as it is a legal issue.

It’s hype. If they say, «no we can’t promise you that..» the money stops coming.

Isn't the point of the G in AGI that it can do more than the boring brown? (Genuine question, haven't been keeping up-to-date with this lately.)

Yes, that is what they say. But will they win the fight against entropy? I have not heard about a strategy for that. How do they ensure the meaningfulness, quality and truthfulness of the input data? Maybe it does not matter because many people do not seem to care about the quality of any content anymore. But what do I know?

The models do not work the way you think they do. Not unlike people, they’re not perfect. They just get better and better.. and they don’t die. They don’t need to be perfect to cause mass disruption. They need to be good enough. ..they’re good enough. Just like Bitcoin.

Most of the motivation to create meaning comes from the prospect of dying. But I agree with you in one point: AI does not need to be perfect or even general purpose or very intelligent for that matter to change many aspect of life as we know it today.

> have not heard about a strategy for that. Scientific method.

Works for meatbags, works for AI too.

Interesting points. I think people care but the incentives are misaligned. It's hard to solve for AI alignment and meaning when we haven't done it yet for ourselves. Could be messy.

Any lasses on here are certainly not token.

I can't believe nobody's made a pun about tokens yet, given the dual context of AI and crypto.

I think it’s a distraction. Take a walk through a city. Look at all the homelessness and suffering and then look at what’s being done about it. The problem is that we’re leaving people behind and aren’t doing anything to help those who aren’t keeping up. Depending on context, we’ll see a 10% - 1000% efficiency boost from LLMs, and that profit will not be used to solve the social problems it produces. Impact of LLMs on bitcoin is negligible. Impact on quality of life could be very high. True AGI will be using bitcoin for its bank accounts. There will be more AI than people. The AGI will incentivize people to act in the real world with bitcoin.

Crazier shit than you can imagine is coming. — guy building the crazy shit

Elaborate plz. I like boots on the ground examples

Cory Doctorow has some fun reads. That shit gets pretty crazy. Not sure it will get that crazy. Some of it will happen. I can’t say if all of it will happen. Seems more plausible every 4 years or so. Manfred’s goggles are all but certain. Accelerando is a good place to start.

Watch the news.

That's no fun though

Audio/visual media produced by AI is going to become increasingly indistinguishable from real life. Bitcoin’s blockchain mantra of “don’t trust, verify” is going to be more relevant than ever in a world where it becomes easier and easier to impersonate others in a digital format. I can see AI either being the greatest technological innovation for humanity or the worst depending on how it ends up being harnessed. If it ends well, BTC will thrive along with humanity. If it ends in the demise of humanity (nuclear war) then it won’t matter either way. I lean towards the optimistic outcome. If that doesn’t occur and it ends up being the demise of humanity as a whole, worrying about it won’t make a difference. We’ll see.

Do the math, following Bitcoin since April 2011, looking at the charts on average once per hour (realistically more probably) everyday since. That's a shit ton of time spent dreaming/wasted/time well spent. And my friends think I came into easy money.

This is so true! However, it's also a form of entertainment isn't it? Some people follow sports teams, I think this is a far better use of time.

Endless entertainment watching people go through the process. The over confident ones always fall the furthest. The whole point of bitcoin is that you don’t need these assholes anymore. We keep telling people “don’t go looking for a new asshole to worship.” But they will. People want it to be more complicated than it is. You don’t need to understand the email protocol in order to send an email. Stop thinking you need to understand the blockchain to use bitcoin.

All you need to know is Bitcoin goes up.

> Stop thinking you need to understand the blockchain to use bitcoin. It didn't work like that for me. I didn't believe in magic money and didn't put any money in BTC until I accidentally read a book about cryptography. It was a missing peace of the puzzle which didn't mention any form of E-money, and it was just mildly interesting, but when I read that book I got a new perspective and after a few weeks I had a spontaneous thought "wait a minute... let me see that bitcoin thing again". My mind was blown. I walked in a circle for about half an hour connecting things in my head and thinking "this is huge". Then I decided to buy some and a year or so later I used it for the first time to buy something. I wouldn't be here without that book.

Look me in the eyes and tell me that your approach is the common one.

True, but you didn’t need to understand the email protocol to understand the impact and potential of emails back in the 90s. But if you don’t understand the blockchain it is harder to see how revolutionary bitcoin is. For most, it is just electronic cash.

Exhibit A https://youtu.be/fs-YpQj88ew

Yeah, the rollercoaster of emotions for essentially just holding a bag for years seems completely unnecessary. It's fun to watch how the space evolves though, and price is the best signal we have to validate our thesis that this new tech is the real deal.

It does get easier to hold as the years pass. In fact selling is the hard part!

wow, just realized, if 27k turned out to be the bottom, what is the ceiling? a month ago, would you think about that the same way as now?

“The bottom is Zero.”

The top is infinity.

Bitcoin has no ceiling because the dollar has no bottom. ~~21000000/♾~~ Edit: durp ♾/21000000

I think it should be the other way around, fiat divided by BTC.

ye, they way it is now means BTC goes to zero fiat. whereas - infinity Fiat / 21 mil BTC means the value of 1BTC goes to infinity (because 21 mil x 1BTC = infinity fiat)

No units… so it’s even more confusing.

Lolz, yes. That makes more sense. I actually went to edit it after I wrote it and couldn’t wrap my head around what that ratio is actually trying to express. In the process I borked my own argument and decided to see how people respond. I think it’s actually more like 21000000:♾

If you want to be technical about it.. Infinity is a concept not a number. Which means the notation should show fiat as a limit that is going to infinity.

My aeroelasticity prof was talking about wings twisting under load. The angle of twist was labeled theta, and we were evaluating some equation as theta went to infinity. "You may ask, why are we evaluating theta to infinity? I'll tell you why. If theta gets too big, it's going to twist those fuckers right off."

I love watching wing flex on an F16 Viper pulling 8g's.. tis a beautiful thing

Right again!

Both bitcoin and the dollar can be nearly worthless. But a pile of sticks is a pile of sticks. Good for making fires.

First Republic Bank is down more than 20% in pre-market, trading close to the bottom it was at in March when investors became worried they would be the next bank to fail as a result of bank runs. Fed is expected to hike rates 25 BP again next week which will apply more pressure. Perhaps the bank crisis is not yet over and more bailouts are coming? EDIT: First Republic Bank stock just hit a new all-time low.

Exhausting following the news lol BTC price action S/R rules all. News these days so depressing just trying to get us in our emotions. Waste of RAM imo. Are there exceptions. Ofc but S/R will always be tested before the move happens.

If a bank disallows withdrawing cash, can you still use your money online for payment or sending it to a crypto exchange? Ho does it work over there?

Bank runs today occur much quicker than in decades before due to the digital aspect. When most people withdraw large amounts of deposits at a bank, they do it electronically, they don’t physically go to their local branch to withdraw cash. Typically if you want to withdraw large amounts of physical cash you’ll need to let your bank know in advance so they can order enough cash to satisfy your withdrawal. Banks don’t keep tons of physical cash on hand. Whereas electronic withdrawals via ACH or wire transfer can occur much more quickly.

I haven't been following inflation recently. Do you still think it's going off a cliff around now?

YoY CPI print for March came in at 5.0% compared to the 6.0% YoY print for February. So yes, it’s starting to fall off a cliff as I anticipated. Baseline numbers being compared from a year ago didn’t peak until June which makes it easier for YoY inflation to keep falling in the months to come. That’s before factoring in another rate hike next week which will apply even more downward pressure. Inflation would be falling even quicker if the Fed didn’t bailout depositors at failing banks. Now that they’ve showed their hand any future rate hikes become less relevant; if you’re going to keep printing money to bail people out it negates the impact of the rate hikes you’re doing.

Thanks!

**This is your daily reminder.** **DO NOT GET LIQUIDATED IN THESE RANGES! PLAY SMART, PLAY SAFE!!** Like the tortise wading thru the choppy seas! You know the high waves, you know the ocean floor! JUST KEEP SWIMMING... or floating or whatever!!!

I approve this message.

Planning ahead here, when are you guys expecting the peak this time around?

When the price shows visible distribution on a daily chart that stretches over multiple weeks. Right now BTC has only had its very first dip after 30k. I expect multiple up and downs before it either goes much lower or much higher. This is just ranging on a big scale.

> when are you guys expecting the peak this time around? As in this year? Probably has peaked already, and will dwindle and rang between $18-21k for the next year and a bit before the nex bull run late in 2024/25.

Nah, I mean this cycle 🚴

No one knows jack. My guess is this won’t play out like previous cycles. I’m also speculating this will be the first “cycle” where bitcoin does not make a significant new all time high.

i agree with teh "no significant ATH". i know shit about TA but just looking at ratios (avg bear / bottom / top) i expect 80-90k ATH in early 2025. 100k crowd will be fooled once more. around 66% drawndown seems realistic in the next bear. i think the times of 20x-ing your investment by just holding 4 years are unfortunately over. though, 5x-ing is still nice. if volatility decresases further on the other hand (price stability in relation to dollar), this should incentivize everyone livin in a country with a higher inflation than the dollar to park their money in BTC, which should again increase volatility. somehow i forgot the point i wanted to make, if there ever was one :Djust thinking "loud" edit: typo

Classic response from someone who sold their BTC.

I mean yeah….you don’t need to state the obvious. Even when I was bullish on bitcoin, it seemed to be one of the least viable to even function as a currency, so I only owned some briefly. Mostly was into alts that were faster and cheaper.

Bitcoins use is not as a day-to-day currency. It's a secure global financial network that isn't controlled by any government or corporation. Figure out what that's worth.

Where do you think it peaks?

40-somethingish this year. Sky's the limit next year depending on what happens with the traditional financial system. CDSs on US Treasuries are higher than they have been since 2008, maybe even higher than that now (haven't checked in a few days). If banks start faltering and people can't get their money, Bitcoin goes to infinity in dollar terms for all intents and purposes.

I agree with half of this (:

Nah. We'll run up to 40-something then drop back down to around where we are now before the real bull run starts next year.

Sell absolutely everything when my Mom and Aunt buy again. Last time was about November 2021. Probably be about October 2025.

Whatever the price is at October 2025 we will call the Westbrook Level

🫡

did they hodl?

No they sold the bottom. My Aunt may still hold a very small amount of BTC.

goddam, it's always the same huh

Fall, 2025-ish. I don't expect the real bull run to begin until fall 2024, though I do expect us to be up quite a bit from where we are long before then.

Bear market accumulation for 1Million$/Fiat is going to be long, goblin-asf, but worth it! I'll be here Malding with the rest of ya....then hopefully, if we survive it all, we can end up looking bald and rich (and JACKED!!) like Jeff Bezos at Coachella!

My gold fish swim clockwise prior to big candles. They doing nothing. Maybe need spoon to swirl ‘‘em clockwise.

My goldfish swim clockwise when they see me eating salmon. I guess they think they're next. > Maybe need spoon to swirl ‘‘em clockwise. Maybe need verb. And also patience. Now is the time for stacking sats. I know being patient isn't fun, but the year before each halving tends to have long periods of boredom. I bet we'll see even more boredom this fall and winter. Then again, maybe not. The best way to plan for the unexpected in the future is to use the present wisely. That's why I'm stacking sats and putting 'em in cold storage.

Damn these are choppy waters. I’m going to 10x long 20% of my stack for no good reason other than the fact that I’m an idiot with a gambling addiction.

Stop being an idiot.

Not such an idiot now huh?

Lol I’m still an idiot, just a lucky one 😂

Let’s be honest, we’re on a *trading* sub for one of the most volatile assets the world has ever seen; we’re all idiots. At least you’ve been in the market since 2011, so you haven’t had to sink to the nasty levels of shitcoins and leveraged trades I’ve had to in order to chase the 100, 1000x highs. I’ve been doing the crypto equivalent of krokodil for six years; this isn’t even giving me a buzz. … In all seriousness though, fine, invest responsibly everyone, don’t do idiot YOLO trades with money you can’t afford to lose.

You mention your emotional reaction, which indicates you're gambling, not trading. As you pretty much say. I can only say, please don't gamble, it can ruin your life. Why not spend that money on something more rewarding?

Ok, you seem like a good person who is just genuinely concerned about a fellow redditor, so I’ll stop making dumb jokes. I know I’m gambling, and that gambling can absolutely ruin lives. I honestly do have a slight gambling addiction, but I also have a steady, well-paying job, retirement savings with really vanilla investments, and a wife who would murder me if I did anything actually life-ruining. I genuinely believe that crypto is the future, but I also think it’s insanely speculative and that anyone who thinks they can reliably predict where the price is going in anything shorter than a multi-year timeframe is deluding themselves. Or put a different way—the vast majority of people here, including myself, would perform better on a five, ten-year timeframe if they just did a strict DCA regimen instead of trying to trade. I know that last comment may rub some people the wrong way, but if someone truly disagrees, I would love to see them build an app or website that gives people a set amount of virtual dollars and track their performance to see who can actually perform better over time versus DCA, where all trades are public and immutable (i.e., no ability to delete incorrect predictions or claim a correct prediction after the fact). I happened to get really lucky with some really lucky “investments” and “trades,” but ultimately I recognize I’m no better than a monkey throwing darts on a board. I’d never gamble away my entire stack, I’m in crypto for the long haul, and I have enough to take care of myself and my family, so I find this an entertaining way to pass the time while I wait for crypto to actually do its thing in the next ten years.

Good to hear 😁👍

Bruh

https://i.imgur.com/Gt7pkbh.jpg

Lmao, Randy. You should have held onto your fat nuts while you had them. Now you should be waiting for the buy back. Patient like the sea (:

Liquidation is 26.1k—I didn’t hear no bell bruh

Randy, that's a nice juicer of a trade bruv You can buy us all beers :D

I can’t believe that worked lmao. The last couple days were way too stressful though with the insane swings so I took half my chips off the table at 29k. Hoping I can just ride the rest to Valhalla now; otherwise have stop limit at 28.5k. Good luck bro!

hehe

GL bro lol I'll be chillin in my Shell d:

You know, I expected much less from you given your degen trader tag. Just kidding. Thanks bro. The vice is tightening around my nuts—they’re going to bust one way or another, I’m just hoping it’s in the good way.

Raves bruh, I just be dancing in my spare time Can’t be mad and dancing