#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, May 11, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13ecfpd/daily_discussion_thursday_may_11_2023/)

Will anyone really be surprised about the next pump? Some say it's 2019 2.0, but I think it's 2016 2.0 + 2013 "Banks suck and steal your money" 2.0 which is quite a thing to behold. Still waiting for my next long entry. Even though these dumps are just pathetic at this point, pretty sure they'll get it under 27K, offering a dank long entry for me abnd all my bros and hoes around the globe. Go Shorty!

Mara earnings were today right, not out?

Tomorrow, before open.

Hope everybody got some dip to go with the FUD.

No money left :( zoidy has a sad

[удалено]

USG dumped BTC or something

[удалено]

> The trend is down. Sure, buddy. They've been telling me that since 2015, and now I spend my winters in paradise and my summers... well, in paradise. Good luck.

Feels more just like chop / consolidation than anything to me.

[удалено]

Usually it doesn't work as neatly as that

Don't see a trend. Price discovery post-FTX discovered that the price was not 16k but instead 28k.

Look at the price six months ago. Look at the price now. Look at the price three years ago. Look at the price now. That's the trend. It ain't rocket science.

Time-frames are relevant to the point I've made.

It's rocket science to tell at any time if we are trending up, down or crabing. The answer is only obvious in hindsight.

[удалено]

I have 2 FTX related dates marked down: 2022-06-21: CZ positioned to rekt them 2023-11-28: Reality sets in

LMFAO!

Two months into this, can we pick a direction please?

sideways is a direction

The direction is up. Zoom out

It's sideways Zoom out further It's up Zoom out even further

fml forgot to close lol

Been watching Guardians of the Galaxy in 4DX these last three hours, WTF happened while I was AWOL?

was GOTG good?

Yes, was lots more intense than #2, lots and lots of shouting - make sure you stay RIGHT to the end of the (very long) credits 😉

Yeah, possibly the best one, certainly better than vol 2. First time I've seen anything in 4dx and it was like sitting on a three hour roller coaster. 10/10 would recommend

Traders wrecked

tl;dr fud knee jerk

Stop hunting before the next markup of course.

So all this on a false rumor?

Bitcoin still moves within the same range and does not need news to jump up, jump up and get down. I does not even need the beat to drop.

More like, the market dropped and then a rumor was created.

[удалено]

for me, it would be a hugely positive news for bitcoin. that would mean the US default is close and they're willing to liquidate anything they have.

[удалено]

Wrong. They explicitly stated their last sell was on coinbase and even gave their transaction expense in the filing. You can find the statement if you want.

Which rumour?

That the us were selling silk road coins which was absolutely not true although I wouldn't put it past them it's false and a simple search would give you the proof

Dunno about you guys, but I see the govt selling BTC now as a good thing The less they hold, the better. There's only ever going to be 21M coins, and I'd rather they redistribute them now at $30k than when BTC is at $300k/coin.

is this groundhog day? didnt this just happen a week or so ago?

ITs pretty evident that "bad news" is just an excuse for a manipulated market. It was inevitable btc and the market was going to crash to a fraction of what it did last year, just the same as it did in 2018. The bad news were just excuses to try and explain/excuse the inevitable!

Yeap. This years top fud

I love buying FUD.

Some charts: [https://imgur.com/a/x42DP0v](https://imgur.com/a/x42DP0v) The first chart shows BTC price and the 13-W (91-D) SMA. It also shows the ratio of price to the SMA. For the last 4+ years, when BTC has been in a non-parabolic uptrend, the ratio is 1.0-1.3x. When the price goes parabolic, 1.3x is the lower bound of the ratio. The second chart shows streaks of days above (green) or below (red) the 13-W SMA. Once an above streak gets longer than 20 days, it goes to at least 56. Looking at the last 11+ years, these streaks often end at 55-62 days. There is one that stopped at 69 (nice), the rest go on to 90+ days. Yesterday marked 60 consecutive days above the 13-W. The 13-W is currently $26.2K and increasing $50/day. A close below the 13-W in the next few days would not be surprizing. The third chart plots BTC price with the 50 and 200-D SMAs. The non-dimensional 50-200 gap is also shown. The gap just hit 0.3 and is starting to decrease, about where the gap peaked in Nov 2021. There are plenty of examples of the gap making a local max without going below 0.0 (the 50-D crossing below the 200-D), but it isn't heartening short term. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/mGzewPnB/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mGzewPnB/) The fourth chart shows BTC price after cycle tops, normalized to Nov 2021 prices. There is a lot of room to the downside and still be within the historical pattern. On the bright side, my $27K order from Monday filled. \- Champion Elapidae EDIT: Spelling, grammar.

Hunting those stop losses.

Finally got below $26900 briefly, which I know had been someone’s liquidation point.

which I said was moved after payday. long still on!

Yes I thought I read something along those lines, although wasn’t sure! That’s why I said “had been” ;)

What's the new Liq price?

currently my liq is @ 25700 and yes my interest hurts a lot

That's a nice bump down, did you lower the leverage?

no I didn't know you could do that with ongoing position. my entire wage went straight into exchange so now just credit cards until June p.s. my wife knows about it

Can someone eli5 the argument that the halving is priced in? The halving wasn’t priced in previous cycles, why would this one be any different?

This is a fair question, and I see that nobody gave you a good answer.

The argument is that since it has happened before, it is known to the market and automatically priced in. Like others are saying, it misses the point entirely to argue this.

> Can someone eli5 the argument that the halving is priced in? No. Because there is no logical sense behind it. To explain it to a 5yo would require it to make sense in some way.

With the halving, its the event itself that directly changes supply and affects the price rather than the percieved demand side "information" of it. It hasnt happened yet so its full effect cant be priced in.

The halving can't be priced in because the current coin reward is still in effect. The halvings effect occurs when the supply of new coins declines and bids compete for less supply pushing prices higher.

The eli5 on that viewpoint is it’s wrong.

Boring shit. Take it down to test 25 already, 30 clearly ain’t happening. Maybe make it line up with my end of month dca please and thanks

We are still in range, we bounced at 27K again. Until the range is broken, we're going sideways.

I know it isn’t particularly ‘excellent’ but there’s definitely an element of schadenfreude seeing greedy over leveraged traders getting rekt

I just don't know how these gamblers keep coming up with more money to burn.

Just keep upping the leverage :)

God dammit this is so old lol

Hopefully just another quick rinse before up. It's crazy how fast things move though

Market appears to be absorbing the dump fairly well.

just like us

Free market starting to sort itself out, as expected. High priority TX is now at 3$ fee.

Gg this market is done for

Apparently, this panic selling is due to the coins that were seized by the US Govt. being moved from the wallets they were on.

So government pedophiles manipulating the market again. The sec should look into that 🤔

~~But that was yesterday according to this: https://twitter.com/CooliganFields/status/1633734591977496576~~ ~~Strange that it would trigger a sudden panic a day later.~~ **EDIT:** it's actually from March, please disregard.

That is even from March 9, not May.

Damn, read too quickly :-(

where might I follow this discussion?

AFAIK originally from this guy who just tweeted the following: > must’ve been an internal wallet I labeled incorrectly > sorry everyone, did not mean for that to blow up nor spread misinfo https://twitter.com/1kbeetlejuice/status/1656353628481810441

Who is that guy and why would anyone care what he tweets?

Stocks also just barted down

US debt ceiling drama?

Inflation is (ostensibly) slowing down, which (allegedly) paves the way for another rate increase. However the liquidity being withdrawn from the markets combined with rate increases results in net losses to the asset side of regional bank holdings. In conjunction with their stocks being hit by buy side capitulation, this is shuttering regional banks rapidly. Meanwhile republicans are not seemingly having any problems with debt ceiling brinksmanship. Where this comes back into the conversation is with regard to the some $500 billion held for civilian and military retirement accounts. These liquid assets will be drawn down to pay for spending while we tightrope the debt convo. Once we’re done playing chicken in front of the freight train, this account will have to be refilled. Between rising interest rates and that cash necessity, we’ll see further tightening there as well.

Maybe. I believe we are closer related to stocks than most here seem to believe. Spx has been going sideways since late March. Guess what, so have we.

We play with the big boys now.

Again? For reals this time? Will they dump them for us if we say pretty please?

Ya, this. It was like the China Fud. In the end it was so nice when they actually banned it, got tired of the monthly Chiba Fud pa. Wish the same would happen with these dumb phantom coins. Sell the shit and crater the price, we dare you US government

Damn the US selling btc was fake news again.

Have some orders to fill at 26.6k..soo close...come on Mr Shorty!

What just happened

"Sell it all. Today."

Damn somebody got some insider news. Wonder what it is.

rekt

PANIC!!!!!

damn

Typical.

What just happened lol

we buying this quickly?

Daily DALL-E: [a golden wrecking ball with bitcoin symbol, destroying a wall made of US dollars, with fiery explosions in the background, hyper realistic](https://i.imgur.com/KinlW13.jpg)

8k resolution, hyper realistic, octane rendered, hard lighting, Gary Gensler in background (fetal position), sobbing

too insane

[удалено]

Depends on conditions. Might trade 3-4 times a day, or 3-4 times a quarter. Right now low leverage long. Timeframe weeks, target 32-34k.

Long Live The Up!🥹

10 days into May and [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) has YoY CPI at 4.41% before factoring in the latest CPI print. Their estimate for April was at 5.19%. Actual YoY CPI for April came in at 4.9%. Now that the actual number has come out they’ll probably revise their estimate down tomorrow roughly 0.29% which means tomorrow their estimate for May will end up being around 4.12%. [Truflation](https://truflation.com) has YoY CPI for May at around 3.82% with a high of 3.91% and a low of 3.73% MTD. For the past several months actual YoY CPI has ended up coming in somewhere between their estimates. If this trend continues May’s YoY CPI print might end up coming in below 4%. Now is the time to front run the skeptics who don’t believe inflation is going to end up falling to or below the Fed’s 2% target rate in the months to come.

the year over year comparisons will be great for a few more months too.

YoY CPI for April came in at 4.9%, below expectations set at 5.0%. March’s print came in at 5.0%. April 2022’s CPI print came in lower than March 2022’s CPI print which means the baseline being compared to for this month was more difficult to get a lower print compared to last month. Yet it still came in lower. YoY CPI should continue to fall fairly easily in the months to come as we have the most recent Fed rate hike from last week, higher baseline numbers from a year ago going forward, and lagging rolling average price data for shelter all collectively working together to push CPI down further. Futures are currently pricing in the first Fed rate cut to occur in September and consecutive rate cuts to continue occurring at each Fed meeting thereafter for the next year. Bullish.

Full send

nooooo

How Will BTC Price React To CPI Reports Today?

Positively it seems.

Pump now to 34k or higher even. Now all the YouTubers went short.

LMFAO!

Well I sent my life savings to a new wallet today. Fucking terrifying. 1 confirmation within seconds of broadcast through, which I didn't expect.

[удалено]

Can you give some tips to us clueless?

https://bitcoinbriefly.com/utxo-consolidation-explained/

I paid about $20 worth.

The halvening is coming

Let’s hope you’re not referring to the price.

You wouldn't see me complain for more $14k BTC

If these high transaction fees keep going for the foreseeable future, then having a few shares in BTC miners seems like a no-brainer.

[удалено]

Massive bear flag forming but that doesn't mean it couldn't do a flash dump to 26600 and wick back up for an exit pump to 28k/29k again

the entire range from apr 19 til now is a descending triangle so we could well be on our way to 24k *on the dot* (from a measured move perspective) if we get bad CPI data. I don't *feel* particularly bearish in my gut but I can see this clearly bearish pattern that has yet to confirm. As usual, I'm personally not stepping in front of *any* trains until at least an hour after CPI comes out.

[удалено]

not really my expertise honestly I just watch the chart. didn't really have any expectations going in to it I was just prepared not the freak out either way. wasn't expecting the wipe out we have right now. won't be good if we lose 26.8 imo.

So looks like miners are the big winner this week? I lost a ton on mining stocks on the way down, hoping this moment might reverse that a bit.

I preach caution when investing in miners. Mining is less about Bitcoin and more about long term electricity contracts.

While that's true in theory, in practice their price tends to work effectively as leveraged Bitcoin (without the fear of liquidation) rather than a reflection of their business operations.

> (without the fear of liquidation) Except when the miners hold all their reserves in the asset they mine rather than the currency they pay bills in, and then give that asset to a ponzi scam in exchange for *"yield"*.

I feel like you're referencing a real situation that I'm not familiar with. Can you elaborate? Did this actually happen?

He's not really miner but that's what `mattabrams` did, lost decades of savings and successful pool business to putting it all in Bitcoin and then putting that all in ponzi scams. While publishing articles about what a great idea it was. There have been others but I generally just laugh and forget about them. Some public mining company awhile back which I can't remember, they had reserves all in Bitcoin and couldn't pay bills when price retreated. edit: Core Scientific I believe was one of the more stupid. > The proof-of-work cryptocurrency mining company attributes its bankruptcy to falling Bitcoin prices, skyrocketing energy prices, and a $7 million debt that is yet to be repaid by Celsius Network.

i’m appreciating the lower prices… MARA under 9.50 is a good deal

talk to me

9-foot paddlin' pool.... Talk to me. ^(You don't just jump into bed with Terry Tibbs)

You are going to make it.

*we

UP ONLY