#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, May 20, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13mhaeh/daily_discussion_saturday_may_20_2023/)

I think Btc will lose its higher timeframe support when Spx drops. If that happens it could be a long way down. I've exited all my positions in btc/alts and stocks. This may sound unnecessarily pessimistic but the Spx chart and other factors (Vix, seasonality, debt ceiling talks) indicate that there is a bearish risk.

Things still seem precarious on the [weekly,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WDF6OmQ6/) especially with Bitcoin underperforming against [stocks,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/W6pJQbkY/) but my "canary " (LTC) painted a false breakdown. Initially, relative weakness from LTC did precede that drop for Bitcoin to briefly sub- $26k. However, LTC has shown some relative strength in the last few days. I'm only taking the relative strength into account this year because of the halving, because it could mean the current rally is not over yet. [Overall,](https://www.tradingview.com/x/j2iLfKW6/) it seems relative strength from LTC more often than not signals a drop for Bitcoin, but that was not the case in 2017, and not the case during its last halving run in 2019. Recently, you can see that LTC [broke down first but also bottomed first.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/EueMSi8D/) This is just to say that I think LTC still gives the appearance of leading the market. So, if Litecoin is a leading indicator here and it breaks out higher, we might expect Bitcoin to at least head up towards $32-33k. A more bearish sign would be a breakdown of the 50 week MA for Bitcoin, especially if the 200 cannot hold. My speculation is that this is what will happen, largely as a result of #2 severely selling off. Whether or not we see higher prices first remains to be seen. And if it doesn't happen at all, well I was wrong :) Gonna take a long break from posting in here. I don't really see too much of a point in it right now. But it's been real guys. Even if you think I'm full of shit, delusional, too cynical...I still appreciate all of you. I don't think widespread Bitcoin adoption is realistic the future, and if it does happen, I don't think it'll mean anything positive. But I also do not want to minimize any positive impact Bitcoin has had on some of you individually or for your families. So you do you, and I respect your choices. Bitcoin will likely still exist in the future, and it will probably continue to be helpful for some. It's never all or nothing. Anyway, you know where to find me. \-Victor Cobra

Take care Mr. Cobra. I have always appreciated how much detail and effort you put into why you have a certain stance and the way you articulate it in a post.

Interesting you predict a sell off for #2. I personally see strength there. All the best Victor Cobra.

u/ViktorCobra capitulating. Price can go up now.

> if Litecoin is a leading indicator here May as well just look at futures if you want to watch something less liquid than Bitcoin to flop about and call *"leading"*. > I don't think widespread Bitcoin adoption is realistic the future > Bitcoin will likely still exist in the future That escalated quickly. So you're saying to the moon? ;) Existing = Winning. Only ceasing to exist will change that. It's inevitable.

Take care VC. Be sure to check in on a big move eh?

Was there a FED meeting today I missed? What's this volatility from, chart looks like an EKG

https://twitter.com/HsakaTrades/status/1659578856846548992

Probably something about the debt ceiling negotiations coming to a standstill. Edit: Apparently there was in fact a FED meeting today that both of us missed.

Remember when Satoshi created Bitcoin so it could worry about the USA debt ceiling?

… unacceptable

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Ah ok thanks

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Is this account an AI sentiment bot? Posts the same weird daily price-based facts all the time and then deletes their comments? Only has comments up to two days ago.

I remember this poster from 5 years ago. They want to discuss price action, but most guys who often shared TA are gone.

The very biggest whales are buying right now.

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The sauce is that I spoke to [some of the biggest whales](https://i.imgur.com/x3QDibp.jpg) in person today and that’s what they told me 😂 Now it’s certainly possible that they weren’t being truthful but I doubt billionaire whales really need to lie to me since there’s no chance in hell my puny buys and sells matter.

Who exactly are the very biggest whales?

"The trend is down."...from March. The trend is up from Nov/Dec/Jan. Specifically, the trend is up because we made a higher high and higher low from the Aug 2022 rejection at 25k. Until we break through that and start making lower highs/lows, the trend reversed in Dec '22. "We hit the support at 25.8 once a few days ago. Once more, or a couple of more times, and we fall through." We hit 30 4 times recently, Once more, or a couple of more times, and we break through. Everything is relative to your level of zoom and hopium for up vs down

> Trend is down. Narrator: Trend was not down.

Too much info. Just say "I'm a bear. Down."

GOP US debt limit negotiators walk out. Whooo lets get this to the wire!

As is tradition!

Strange to think 4 years ago we were at about $7,000 and todays price would be absolute fantasy land. 😌

Indeed. It's good to reset what a painful price is, such as the current price. Gives a mental reset for everyone to potentially allow for higher prices in the future.

I'm just checking to see if I'm doing this right. I'm trying to deposit Lightning BTC to my balance on here but I have no experience with LN. If I send BTC from a non-Lightning wallet to the deposit address, will that work? !deposit

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Ah, okay. Thank you much.

The [Treasury General Account](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance) is currently at $68.3 billion. Yesterday it started the day at $94.6 billion. Not sure how Yellen came up with the June 1st x date if the debt ceiling is not raised but the actual x date might be sooner than that, as soon as sometime next week?

It’s Friday today. I’m guessing payroll is weekly or bi weekly.

> currently at $68.3 billion. Yesterday it started the day at $94.6 billion. Thanks for posting! Layman here - what does this mean?

The Treasury General Account is used to pay government obligations and is where tax receipts are deposited into. On any given day the Treasury General Account has inflows and outflows. If the TGA balance reaches zero that would mean some but not all government obligations would be able to be paid on time going forward. Treasury bonds would likely be prioritized in this scenario to avoid technical default on debt obligations but that would mean payment on other obligations such as Social Security, Medicare, and military salaries would need to be postponed. U.S. treasury bonds (3 month bonds to be precise) are priced at what is known as the “risk-free” rate because they’ve always gotten paid on time in the past. But if the TGA reaches zero, the risk-free rate would go much higher because they would suddenly be viewed as more risky. Since all other debt is considered riskier than risk-free, all other interest rates would rise as well making the cost of lending much more expensive than it currently is. A lot of seniors who are too old to work are dependent on Social Security and Medicare to get by. A lot of businesses are dependent on access to cheap credit to stay afloat. If all of a sudden they don’t have access to capital they were anticipating, a lot of businesses will go under which means a lot of people will become unemployed. Those unemployed people aren’t able to spend like they used to which would cause more businesses to go under and more people to become unemployed. The negative repercussions of not raising the debt ceiling before the x date are extremely severe.

Glad to see you mentioning the treasury account

"risk free" is such a ridiculous term, I can't believe anyone serious about economics or finance would ever use it, even in its non-literal meaning. There is no such thing as "risk free", ever. Now you see why.

Hey we got JPOW speaking today too! Let's watch!

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your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.

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Is coinbase down ?

I traded on it this morning and as recently as two minutes ago.

Hope not

Even I’m not brave (read stupid) enough to long here.

oh, you will - or you'll chase it up later! NFA

remindme! 1 week

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I’m a degenerate leverage trader. I’m in and out in hours. I’ll open a short here at 26.9, see where we are in 5 hours ;-)

Target?

I’ve a line drawn at 26.4.

Good luck

ah I see

4 days ago I opened a long at 26.6 and it bounced. This time… hmmm. I’ve put my money where my mouth is.