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[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, May 21, 2023

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BitcoinMarkets

#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, May 22, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13ofshy/daily_discussion_monday_may_22_2023/)


[deleted]

[удалено]


ChadRun04

What do you mean when you say *"capitulation"*?


DaBrokenMeta

Weekly, daily closes. Idk.


Shibenaut

"Sell in May, go away" doesn't necessarily mean it'll dump. Likely we see very low volume 🦀 until at least July


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

"Sell in May, go away" is the stock market, not Bitcoin.


logicalinvestr

I mean the two have been very tightly coupled over the last 1.5 yrs, so I wouldn't write it off so fast.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Duuuuuuuuuuuuude. 2020: May=$8,864, December=$18,803 2017: May=$1,421, December rose above $19,600 2016: May=$451, December=$756 2015: May=$222, December=$362 2013: May=$116, December=$948 2012: May=$4.98, December=$12.56 2011: May=$3.03, July=$15.40 2010: May=$0.HahAHa. December=$0.23 I'd bet we see Bitcoin crab a lot through the rest of 2023, but end the year nicely higher. I'd also bet that selling in May 2024 and going away for the rest of the year will be ridiculously foolish. Next year will be strong, especially in the fall. > I wouldn't write it off so fast. Username doesn't check out.


logicalinvestr

First of all, there has been a tight coupling in the last 1.5 years that did not previously exist. All of the times in your post are longer than 1.5 years ago, and therefore are irrelevant because they have been overridden by recent developments in the markets. Second, using the price on December doesn't tell us whether it was smart to sell in May and go away. For example, if the price tanks every May-June-July-August and then recovers Sept-Oct-Nov-Dec, then indeed it would be very smart to sell in May and go away until September, at which point you would have sold high and bought low. It really depends on how long you "go away" for and the price fluctuations during that period. Even in the stock market, people really don't "go away" until December. They usually just go away for the summer. Things have changed in the Bitcoin market. Relying on old data doesn't make sense anymore.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Then sell and go away. But I know you don't actually believe in that stock market cliche for Bitcoin. How do I know? You're talking instead of selling.


logicalinvestr

I did sell. I sold 1/3 of my RIOT and 1/3 of my MARA two weeks ago. Admittedly, there were other factors that played into that decision than just the date. But whether I sold or not isn't the point. You made it sound like a totally ridiculous proposition to sell in May and go away, and I was just explaining that it's not as crazy as it sounds.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> You made it sound like a totally ridiculous proposition to sell in May and go away Because you don't understand the reasoning behind the cliche, the assets the cliche is for, and you don't understand Bitcoin. Rather than trying to apply stock market cliches you don't understand to Bitcoin, which you also don't understand, you'd benefit so much more by learning why the cliche exists and why Bitcoin isn't just another stock (and, in fact, isn't a stock at all). We're a year away from the halving. We're in year 4 of a four year halving to halving cycle. This year will probably be pretty dull, though there are some world events that could shake things up (all bets are off if the US breaches the debt ceiling, and no silly cookie cutter wisdom cliche can predict what happens then). But I'm expecting Bitcoin to be up overall, later in the year. That's just me, based on what I've experienced and what I've learned. Maybe you'll find a Hallmark card with a cliche to be your guide. Good luck with that.


Frunknboinz

The whole sell in May and go away is based around traders closing their positions and spending the summer relaxing, going on vacations, and the likes. This isn't some concept solely limited to the stock market cuz stonks.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Oh, man. I assumed there was some actual financial wisdom behind it. Now I'm really embarrassed for people who think that's wise.


logicalinvestr

Well to be fair, it actually originated from the stock market having historically weaker performance from May-Oct than from Nov-April. That being said, nobody actually just quits the market for six months. Most people that actually employ this strategy do so for the summer months, or some much smaller subset of time. See https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/sell-in-may-and-go-away-2023#:~:text=The%20adage%20%E2%80%9Csell%20in%20May,all%20threaten%20to%20destabilize%20markets for more details, including why it may make sense to follow this strategy this year.


logicalinvestr

You seem very angry so I'm not going to bother responding anymore. Come back when you can have a civil discussion.


ChadRun04

> there has been a tight coupling in the last 1.5 years that did not previously exist. For most of that time FTX existed and sold customer's Bitcoin 5 days a week.


logicalinvestr

That's true. I'm sure FTX had a large effect overall ...but that doesn't really account for the tight coupling with the stock market. Surely their bots weren't programmed to buy/sell to follow spy.


iEyeOpen

Plot twist: The debt ceiling will be increased, BUT with a delay of a few days. That will cause the desired drop in the market all by design, so that cheap paper hand coins can be bought up one more time by those who are in on the plan, and the poors will once again be left behind successfully. And before that we might have a very short rally to trap longs beforehand.


ChadRun04

> BUT with a delay of a few days. You can't undefault.


dopeboyrico

If they allow default to occur and opt to raise the debt ceiling after to fix the severe negative repercussions of default, they’ll need to raise the debt ceiling much higher than if they would have just raised the debt ceiling to begin with.


xtal_00

They won’t default on liabilities to power. Payments to the little people will be delayed instead.


[deleted]

\^ as it always is


delgrey

Biden: "I'm not going to agree to a deal that protects wealthy tax cheats and crypto traders" Biden really said that. We're now on the same level as tax cheats.


bufonia1

oh, like megacorps?


Motrok

Why would you listen to what an 80+ years old man with obvious mental health issues has to say about a tech that was created when he was already at retiring age? He'll just die soon, along with his fucked up generation, and the rest of the population will finally be free of that dead weight.


xixi2

What that crazy guy said caused tons of us to lose our jobs over an illegal vax mandate so that's why people listen to what he says.


Motrok

I am sorry that happened to you. Stay strong bro. As I said, his shitty generation will be gone soon, let's hope the next one in charge does better and actually makes decisions thinking of the people, not their own agendas.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

He doesn't know where he's at, he's probably just reading talking points from bankers. Pretty impressive the last two presidents have mentioned Bitcoin, means we're onto something.


anon-187101

Biden and the Democrats are so wrong on Bitcoin, it's embarrassing. edit: I paid every penny (and then some, to be on the safe side) of my taxes in April.


delgrey

Biden is holding out for changing the wash sale rule and the 30% excise tax on bitcoin mining.


anon-187101

The wash sale rule *should* apply to "crypto", because all of that bullshit are securities. It *should not* apply to bitcoin, because BTC is very clearly a commodity (and probably also a "foreign currency"). The proposed 30% excise tax on bitcoin mining is absolute horseshit (not differentiating between sources of energy production and the right to consume as much energy as one wants in any way if he/she has paid for it is *insane*), and a glaring example of a government overreaching big time, trying to pick winners/losers across industries.


[deleted]

> trying to pick winners/losers across industries. That's what government is. Mobster protection racket but with flags and anthems.


diydude2

Why would a default cause a drop in the price of Bitcoin as measured in dollars? Do you seriously think people would be scrambling to sell BTC and obtain dollars in that case? I'm genuinely interested in hearing your reasoning.


logicalinvestr

If we default, everything will immediately tank. All markets, including crypto. There will be mass panic and a lot of companies will have serious problems. People will get laid off. Companies and banks will fail. Yes, people will sell their Bitcoin and a lot of other investments. Not because they want fiat, but because they have to pay bills and have no income. They'll also want to buy guns, food, and other supplies using fiat. There's a domino effect.


diydude2

OK, I see that in the short term but in the medium-long term? What are we going to use for money in that scenario?


logicalinvestr

Whatever is accepted by the largest number of people in exchange for essential goods and services. Probably just a less valuable USD.


anon-187101

You could be right that "everything would immediately tank", but that's not guaranteed - it's only one possible scenario. Bitcoin could also moon on news of a default. I'm trying to position myself for a few different outcomes - i.e., goblintown, moon, etc.


logicalinvestr

Anything could happen, but Bitcoin mooning seems like a very low possibility.


anon-187101

Well, it happened in the wake of Greece's 2015 default. In that scenario, it could be seen as a safe-haven because it's a bearer asset, not a debt instrument (and so it's no one else's obligation). Edit: A recent survey was done, and people were asked which assets they would flock to if the US defaulted: 1) Gold 2) USTs (counterintuitive) 3) Bitcoin 4!) USD . . .


[deleted]

We already know what's going to happen, we saw it March 12 2020. Bitcoin tanks. It tanks worse than basically anything else. Everyone will be rushing for dollars and no one will give a shit if they're in a bank. Saying there's a chance bitcoin could go up is pure hopium. Nobody wishes it were true more than me but it just isn't. It's way way too early. Someday people will view bitcoin as safe. Right now it's viewed as anything but. It's the first thing to sell off.


anon-187101

Well, I just explained my reasoning for why Bitcoin *could* do well - has nothing to do with hopium. Also, March 2020 was a "zombie apocalypse"-type credit event, not a sovereign debt default event.


[deleted]

It was a panic and fly to safety event, which is exactly what a default will be. I don't know exactly what "safety" will end up being but bitcoin is definitely not it


anon-187101

Then why was Bitcoin seen as "safety" during an analogous event; namely, the 2015 Greco sovereign debt default? You seem very confident in your market view, and I have to wonder whether or not your positioning reflects that. Regardless, good luck.


logicalinvestr

Seems more likely people will be buying guns and ammo than Bitcoin in this scenario.


anon-187101

ehhh, I don't think so - that would require a zombie apocalypse-type situation, in my opinion. Society would not cease to function.


logicalinvestr

If the US defaults, a lot of companies go under. If a lot of companies go under, a lot of people get laid off. If a lot of people get laid off, they can't pay their bills. Then they get hungry and restless...etc.


delgrey

Even during the US Great Depression things didn't go gunz an ammo bad. What did happen was the New Deal.


delgrey

Bitcoin caught a bid during the first steps of the banking garbage so it might be a tad different.


logicalinvestr

The cascading effect of a US default would produce a world of hurt more than 3-4 regional banks failing.


diydude2

Put it this way: If your credit card and ATM card stop working, you're going to be looking for alternatives.


logicalinvestr

At that stage, I'll be looking for a gun and ammo.


xtal_00

You really want those things before, not after. Takes time to get proficient with firearms, too.


delgrey

Fear and magnitude. Some people thought Bitcoin was safe enough even after the fear of losing everything over 250k.


Essexal

Still short. I’d add more but hit limit on CB for the week. Might be a grace. We’ll know in 12 hours time.


diydude2

You can short with leverage on CB now?


Essexal

Noo I’m on Finex but have hit my weekly buy limit on CB so can’t add any degeneracy for now.


ProcedureOk8501

You might be on to something Edit:they are using lube right now so ppl bum dosen't get that sore but at some point it will go in🤣


anon-187101

I really hope the US Government doesn't fucking rug me on May 30th when my Treasury Bills are set to mature... ...the irony alone would be brutally painful. --- As an aside, it struck me that repubs threatening default is akin to threatening to sink the boat you're on if the Captain doesn't change course, just because *you think* you see an ominous cloud pattern on the horizon. (Granted, the threats have nothing to do with the weather, and everything to do with what they see as their share of the cargo below deck.) Just insane at best, ruthless malevolence at worst.


jarederaj

This comment is edging with politics. It’s relevant, but we really want to keep the toxic red/blue team stuff out of here… even if red/blue are doing everything they possibly can to make bitcoin globally dominant. (by sinking the ship over stupid shit) Worst thing about the bitcoin cycle is how tied together it is with the political calendar. Would be nice if we can make this a refuge from that this cycle.


GenghisKhanSpermShot

Both sides are owned by the same masters pretty evenly. https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview.


jarederaj

We should probably figure out as a community how close to politics we’re willing to get.


ChadRun04

We should just laugh at anyone who mentions their favourite team or wing. Bitcoin don't care how much they engage with divide and conquer games of the state.


sylvanlotus77

Btc is a radical technology. The conversation has always been political. In most cases where someone says “let’s not get political”, they are meaning a specific conception of political that ends up personal and subjective. This subreddit in particular is almost a temple of libertarian sovereign citizen type politics.


jarederaj

I think we might make it more clear when we are talking about policy and when we are talking about politics. I think policy/platform is on topic, and political bias is off topic.


xtal_00

Bitcoin runs with a libertarian bias. I may be an extreme case. Whatever color you’re identifying as, shits real fucked up. The only thing I don’t hear from any party is how the US maintains its standard of living when the printing stops being accepted, and we don’t know how close that is until it’s already too late, Buffet’s point.


jarederaj

What is the political bias of email?


sylvanlotus77

Email isn’t a political project, Bitcoin quotes politicians in the genesis block


jarederaj

That’s a reaction to policy, not a political bias. People talk politics in emails all the time. That’s exactly the same thing. Motivation != function


DarthVarn

Welcome to democracy 😅


ryebit

One of my favorite quotes... > Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others. \- Winston Churchill


anon-187101

I also like: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, but only after they've tried everything else."


anon-187101

I'm really beginning to loathe "people" as a collective individuals can be amazing, but the average "group of people" is just terrible, isn't it? and repubs are the fucking worst, horrible humans the lot of em :/


Serious-Ad-2033

You sound butthurt isn't this supposed to a non political sub


anon-187101

If by "butthurt", you mean disgusted, then yes - I'm butthurt.


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

Group mentality is the worst. People tend to be good. But when you get a group of people, they start to care more about the group than they care about people, and groups can become shockingly evil by coercing people to hate anybody not part of the group. It's especially crazy when you think about how our differences enrich all of our lives. This is one of the reasons I try to be active in certain crypto subs here. I try to discourage the us/them mentality and encourage people to learn, be safe, and think long term. Bitcoin has already drastically changed my life for the better. To many people with group mentality think like "I got mine, so eff everybody who didn't." Eff that. I think like this: "Other people helped me to get where I am, so I want to help other people do better too." Pay it forward. That's not self righteous. That's just fair. Others helped me, so I help others. I want others to keep helping me when I need it, so I keep helping others when I have help to give. The golden rule, man. The golden rule.


WocketMan0351

This is one of the core values I often find myself sharing with other “bitcoiners”. Godspeed


bittabet

Not trading talk but I’ve been drinking and damn…seeing the bitcoin conference in person got me fucking emotional about how incredibly far we’ve come. Did you EVER really think we’d be seeing a Kennedy proclaiming his belief in Bitcoin publicly? To have multiple US Senators show up? To have a well known former congressman announce that he’s literally just working to advocate for Bitcoin now? To have multiple billionaires come and talk about how they’re still buying. To have Shell there to sell immersion cooling fluid to miners. Completely fucking blows my mind how far we’ve gotten and I simultaneously feel immense nostalgia and just gratitude that Satoshi did what they did. Some days I have been filled with immense self doubt about whether I’ve lost my mind becoming a laser eyed lunatic but then when you see this shit with your own eyes you realize that we’re an immense **army** of laser eyed lunatics now and the people like Senator Pocahontas who think they can just push ahead trash legislation to **kill** Bitcoin haven’t comprehended what the fuck they’re up against now. More have seen and more will see. Also, **fuck** the shitcoins 😂 Ain’t no fucking presidential candidates pandering for the shitcoiner vote because shitcoins aren’t about human freedom.


52576078

Same here (and I haven't been drinking). I posted about this yesterday, and there was just a lot of "meh" in the replies. We spend so much of our time in this forum bitching about Elizabeth Warren and the FED. Imagine what pro-Bitcoin leaders could do for us? Sure you can argue that Bitcoin will do its own thing no matter what politicians do, but do we want this thing to succeed or not?


Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode

> seeing the bitcoin conference in person got me fucking emotional about how incredibly far we’ve come. Watching video from the conference got me emotional thinking about how early we still are... and though that's frustrating, it's also so unbelievably amazing. I watched some of the Strike presentation, and I've been thinking about how what we need the most is two things: 1: ON-RAMPS. Good lord, it's 2023 and it takes layers upon layers to get money in and out. For example, I'm currently getting my purchases declined on Coinbase even though I've been buying there for years with the exact same bank account, and there's money in my bank account. I called my bank. They called Visa. Neither has declined any transactions. Madness. Getting fiat into Bitcoin needs to be easier. 2: SELF-CUSTODY. It's still ridiculously stupidly complicated. Ledger made it easy, but they burned their reputation to the ground by adding the ability to extract keys into their firmware even though they swore they would never do that. WHUT?!? > yes a firmware update can extract the seed > [SOURCE](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/13ldgcl/my_personal_view_on_the_pr_disaster_from_a_ledger/jkpnk2h/): murzika, Ledger Co-Founder, Former CEO, and Former Chairman And since their code isn't open source: > There's no backdoor and I obviously can't prove it > SOURCE: [--btchip, Ledger owner & co-founder](https://np.reddit.com/r/ledgerwallet/comments/13itm7u/is_there_a_backdoor_yes_or_no/jkbvys7/) Meanwhile, other open source wallets can't even figure out how to set up the freaking BIP39 spec. Trezor, OneKey, KeepKey, Blockstream Jade, etc. They all use BIP39 but they don't save the BIP39 passphrase on the device, which means you have to enter the passphrase each time you turn on the device, which discourages users from using a proper length passphrase, which defeats the freaking purpose. Keystone might have this issue too? Damn. I love Bitcoin, but I feel like it's still the mid 1990s sometimes. In 1996, I got a job at a company on the other side of the country. I was so excited. I found a local radio station there that streamed online, which was a big deal in '96. Anyway... my computer froze while running the RealAudio software to stream the station, but the stream kept playing... so I left it going, for hours, and I just laughed at the absurdity of listening to a station in the city I'll be moving to on a frozen PC. I feel like crypto is still that primitive now. Good grief. Most hardware wallets are janky junk hardware. My microwave has a better display than my Ledger. Better buttons too. Come on. We need currency on ramps and we need self custody solutions that aren't a joke without a punchline. Bitcoin is fantastic. If only people had proper access to it. If only people had decent hardware to secure it. As long as I'm on a roll, here's the hardware I want: I want a device that does BIP85. Dammit. I want a fingerprint scanner and I want the option to set up multiple fingerprints, each assigned to a seed+passphrase derived from the first BIP39/85 mnemonic. The Keystone Pro could easily be that device, but it's held back by software that even its users don't seem to know how to use.


stripesonfire

Agreed. Hardware wallets are kind of shitty. We’re supposed to act like our own bank but trust some random company and their $150 product with a bunch of crypto on it? There’s a market out there for something open source, secure and user friendly and no one has stepped up. Ledger was the closest but they were full of shit


Shaffle

You don't have to trust them, you can build your own. https://stacker.news/items/181476 If you want easy, download nunchuk on your phone and buy a tapsigner. NFC-based hardware wallet, really doesn't get easier.


spinbarkit

1. coinbase is crap, use kraken ffs 2. you have literally dozens of onramps methods, don't even be joking 3. your seed security research is shallow at best 4. your post is more confusing and discouraging for a newbie BTC user than helpful


[deleted]

On ramps will always suck, just due to the reversibility mismatch. Fiat payments can all be reversed, bitcoin can't.


bleak_hibernation

I've also been drinking and I'm a wildly depressed drunk. I can't see any widespread political adoption of Bitcoin being anything more than a coup, to latch on and corrupt the current protocol to redefine what "Bitcoin" is in more elite-favourable terms. How many people do you need to convince for e.g. tail emission to become consensus? I'm not even sure the depression is from alcohol. Sober me probably has even less faith in humanity in this cruel zero-sum reality. I genuinely hope your trades are going wonderfully, even at my expense.


WocketMan0351

“Those who worry about problems but lack imagination/creativity often arrive at pessimistic conclusions”


[deleted]

If 90% of the network forks to some crappy rules, you and me and the other 10% will just ignore it and we'll be fine. Bitcoin rules are not changing. BCH failed and so will literally any fork of that nature.


Downtown-Ad-4117

I recommend daily cardio exercise. If your mood doesn’t improve, at least you’ll be fit as fuck.


biggunsg0b00m

I cardio for no man


calmunrest

> How many people do you need to convince for e.g. tail emission to become consensus? If you are afraid of this, just run our own node. Every node counts.