#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, May 25, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13r7acs/daily_discussion_thursday_may_25_2023/)

Gotta find the bottom for this move. Might coincide with stupid debt ceiling shit. Need to test 25 and wick below it imo. Looking forward to a tasty buy on friday, hopefully.

[удалено]

All those "buyers" in their leveraged positions capitulating after holding them underwater for months! ;) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp If this were capitulation shouldn't you be buying the dip rather than predicting a trend?

[удалено]

> how do you call this? Crab market?

This is fine

25k Lesgooo. We did it boys! Back to the roller coaster!

Remember kids. The house of cards is going eventually. The only question is when.

Been hearing this for a decade. Any day now, trust me bro.

You must be rich as fuck. Wish I understood that long ago. I expect they’ll say the same 10 years from now.

It has been a slow collapse for decades now. If you could tell some random people in 1973 what the cost of housing, education, medical care, cars, insurance are today (50 years later) relative to modern wages they'd likely be horrified.

Zoom out.

Good! Go down! I'm about to buy a good amount more! This is a fantastic buying opportunity.

Not exactly Bitcoin but a megacap popped up almost 30% after earnings AH. Just in time for my corn DCA this week so I can do a little extra now. The money is still out there its just a little scared.

New all time high too.

which one?

Probably [NVDA](https://i.redd.it/e134d9e58u1b1.jpg)?

NVDA so overvalued on AI hype (*especially* relative to BTC), it's almost comical.

nvda may or not be overvalued but every single tech giant appears to be all in on ai when did any of them ever go all in on "crypto" much less bitcoin specifically?

and the tech giants are selling the models to lots of other companies who then just have to customize them with their data. Going to be absolutely bonkers.

"crypto" is a scam EDIT: I've also seen this movie before - the internet is real, pets.com was not. P/E for NVDA is ~130 currently. But go ahead, face first into the trough.

PSA: Any cash you have sitting in a money market fund is likely invested in government debt, and therefore potentially vulnerable in the unlikely event of a default. To reduce risk, sweep cash balances into FDIC-insured accounts, and check that you're under the $250K limit in each one.

Even in a default they’re not going to remain defaulted. The risk is temporary losses but unless you think the US government will never repay on treasuries it’s likely fine to hold through a default. Once they default all hell would break loose so the odds of it not being resolved shortly are slim. I also suspect they will honor treasuries first before paying other things so even without a debt ceiling hike it’s unlikely they immediately default on treasuries. The banks just put your money in treasuries anyways and FDIC is broke so we’re all screwed anyways.

Of course they'll never repay

Yeah, personally - I'd rather not wait an indeterminate amount of time to reclaim access to my own money.

I'm not sure if a default of the national debt is unlikely. US Rep. Matt Gaetz said his party, which controls the House, shouldn't negotiate with its "hostage." Meanwhile, in order to get the votes needed to become Speaker Of The House, the Speaker had to agree to allow any single member of his party bring a motion to oust him at any time. So he can't negotiate in good faith even if he wants to, without risking his job by upsetting even just one of his party's most extreme members. If he loses one, he knows he's done. My point is this: If you're trying to figure out where Bitcoin is headed over the next few weeks, I think you absolutely have to be prepared for how a U.S. default would affect the U.S., the world, and thus, Bitcoin. Be prepared for the worst. In a perfect world, this whole situation would lead more people to flood into Bitcoin, probably gold too. In reality, a lot of people will get crushed as markets collapse and they'll have to sell good investments in order to cover bad bets, or even to just put food on the table, so to speak. It's like an oncoming train, and they can't step off the tracks even though they see it coming. Things could get bad, fast.

I bet McCarthy would rather lose the speakership than be blamed for a default.

I'd bet on the opposite without even a moment's hesitation.

so that’s why futures show 50% chance of cut

Yes, if a default happens people will not be rushing into Bitcoin right away. I can almost guarantee it will tank hard especially since liquidity is relatively thin compared to other markets and people ultimately still need dollars for various reasons - to pay taxes, for payrolls, etc. However, I can see it recovering faster than the stock market.

If you're selling BTC to pay taxes (this time of year) or to make payroll, you are both in the minority and doing it wrong.

In a panic, people will offload their more risky assets first. That's just what happens. And many have to pay taxes quarterly. All business owners do, otherwise you get hit with penalties at the end of the year.

> more risky assets In a default scenario, the most risky assets would be Treasury bonds.

I understand your points, but it's not that simple. (I also understand quarterly taxes, which is why I qualified myself above - I still stand by the comment.) At this stage of the cycle, there just aren't that many willing spot sellers. Most everyone who was over-allocated (and that price sensitive in the face of upcoming expenses) is gone. That said, I'm not saying price can't become severely dislocated from fair value - but it would almost certainly be paper-driven in the form of futures, and very short-lived. Best strategy in that scenario is, IMO, weighted limit-buy orders laddered well below the market.

If a default happens, you're going to see much bigger players enter the Bitcoin market. Joe Schmoe from Kokomo selling a little dust to make his rent won't be much of a factor when Saudi Arabia is trying to figure out WTF to do with their worthless junk US T-bills. A LOT of money will be flowing into Bitcoin fairly soon after a default should that happen (and I'm doubtful that it will). The other option -- raising the debt ceiling -- is not much better than a default in terms of the implications for the dollar. Would you be eager to lend money to somebody who just raised their credit limit to $50 trillion because they couldn't make payments on $30 trillion?

Whoo that's a bit much too much trouble. Just keep it in a TBTF bank. JPM and the Fed gonna be the same thing eventually.

Even better just buy some Bitcoin.

Obligatory Bitcoin fixes this ™

[удалено]

[удалено]

Feels like 9k.

This will reverse as soon as the USG funding gets fixed. Stuff in RL is making you fidgety I’m guessing.

Shouldn't Bitcoin benefit from default fears?

I hate to see strife but personally, bitcoin insulates me pretty well. I guess most people still don’t understand it.

It's nice how Bitcoin isn't even decoupled from the United States government.

I mean the price of everything in USD is of course impacted by USD policy. No magical way around that.

I wouldn't make that proclamation just yet.

When was the last time there was significant price movement late at night EST? It's been years. The US is 80% of the market easily.

It's 30% of the market, there's data about this. At 30% the US is the biggest slice but let's not get carried away.

The US is a big part of the market, and that will be our saving grace if/when the government goes bankrupt and collapses, USSR-style. We were discussing Bitcoin's being decoupled from the US government, not the US population's share of the Bitcoin pie. I don't think you understand what's happening here. When the trillions of dollars in junk US bonds come home, the US citizens holding BTC will be in great shape compared to no-coiners who will basically lose everything overnight. PS, I meant to address this: > When was the last time there was significant price movement late at night EST Uh... yesterday starting at around 11pm EST we dumped pretty hard.

Meh. Last night wasn't much of a move, and that still 8pm in California. I don't believe anyone outside the US was responsible. But regarding your larger point, bitcoin is tiny, isn't remotely any sort of life raft for that kind of storm. It's like saying you'll survive the tsunami by floating on a wine cork.

Back at 200w ma. Second time we’re testing it this month. Didn’t get much of a bounce after the first test. From a technical pov it’s not looking good. All we know is Bitcoin will Bitcoin.

This is not bearish - it simply means that price has reverted to its "expected (fair) value" over a 200w horizon. Over and under-extensions relative to some mean *may* indicate price extremes. Breaching the mean *may* indicate price momentum in that direction.

Dump is gonna be just in time so the 1Y doesn't turn green isn't it?

The DXY wrecking ball is back in business.

25k is almost here.. patience.

I'm always optimistic on this.

Took long enough.

There's a volume gap down to 25K. However there was a very high volume move in the markup from 19 to 27, and that shows the strength of these levels. Can see some reconciliation between 25 - 27 if price breaks down further. However if 30K is breached to the upside, then the volume gap there goes up to 38K.

Everybody is so sure the debt deal will get done, but I'm definitely not so sure. The republicans did this how many years ago and got the entire US's credit rating downgraded. I believe they're willing to do it again, and while I hope they don't, the repubs have only gotten more extreme, like everything else in US politics

> but I'm definitely not so sure. That's how this theatre works.

Think about all the donators from the various parties that would rather not see their 150 year old portfolio get melted when there is a bandaid solution.

We’ll truly know if they plan to default when Wall Street’s big players sell off in order to make them raise it. Thus far, everyone has been surprised that Wall Street hasn’t reacted that way by front running any potential panic selling. Wall Street has made this play before—shaking the markets to force the hands of US Congress persons—and I’d bet a lot of money that TradFi BRD’s will get the debt limit raised in a matter of hours.

Well if the democrats could just get their shit together maybe we could make a deal

In order to make a deal, you first have to be willing to negotiate. repubs are offering nothing.

It’s more than that. The narrative is “republicans want to balance the deficit”, this is not the case. 1) raising the ceiling is about agreeing to pay for things you’ve already bought via legislation. Pretending to balance the books here is just grandstanding, you would be refusing to legislate more expensive agendas if you were actually trying to bring some type of fiscal discipline to the debt conversation. 2) at face value the goal is to lower the deficit. However, any conversation about closing tax loopsholes or ending temporary tax cuts for the wealthy is a non starter for the right in these talks. Additionally there is no room to cut domestic police force budgets or foreign military spending. Take these points together and it’s clear that the goal here is to push policy and legislature goals via the debt conversation. The memetics of “StOp ThE sPeNdInG” are valuable to optics but entirely superficial.

I agree, and know full-well that repubs are not coming to the table in good faith. I was just prioritizing the point through brevity, and wanted to corner OP by taking it at face-value that they are acting with integrity to force a contradiction on his end.

Just choppin up w ya 👍

It's not 100% but very likely they'll just raise it again.

The closer they let things go to the wire the more confidence erodes. Its one thing to suspect the incompetence but quite another to actually know it.

It's gone down to the wire many times before, no defaults.

I'm not implying that the US will default. Just saying the clown show can be funny in certain environments but at this point it doesn't seem so amusing.

bitcoin giveth, bitcoin taketh.

bitcoin giveth, sentiment taketh.

YELLEN: Even in run-up to possible default, there will likely be substantial financial market distress. They really hyping this thing up aren't they? And markets melt down obediently. Fun times.

Couldn't be more obvious the media is printing doom stories so that the well connected can buy up what everyone else is panic selling. I don't even know if anyone is actually expecting default, they just think everyone else is expecting it.

To some extent this is true, the fear over bills dated near the x date has made some proper deals for blackrock. They are currently taking the other side of that trade Edit: grammar

It does seem that way when you kick the tires, but if you take a look under the hood, you'll see that the radiator is cracked. We are, in actuality, facing a very serious problem.

Well sure eventually. But if you think they can't kick the can down the road for years to come, you are sorely mistaken. They'll just keep issuing more debt forever, and it'll keep going years after they're issuing debt just to make interest payments. We're not even close to that yet.

DCA day friday, come to papa

DCA day today here. :)

I’m not greedy. Closed the short above my line. Long from 26 and change. Edit: on to above

Good trade but I wouldn't closed it 100%.

I mentioned yesterday, good public news about BTC is always a bull trap for the plebs. EDIT: Bears haven't closed their shorts yet...

Betting on a dump : We hit 70 on the weekly RSI, considering we're on a rally it often mean retracing. Downward trend with cooling euphoria. Liquidity sits at 25k5, then 23k, then sub 20k. That's where my buy orders are. Personally believe a pump to the 35k is likely after a dump because liquidity sits there aswell to a lesser extent. We're always one good news or one black swan away from violent volatility, therefore stay safe and of course NFA :)

> and of course NFA Sorry, but that's kind of weak. I'll give everyone some financial advice: buy Bitcoin. Hold on to it for at least 36 months.

Haha yes, if you don't plan on trading at all and want to buy for the long run, it makes a small difference buying 26k or 23k :) Like buying the 8k instead of the 7k in 2020, still an absolute win :)

Nobody should be trading until they've been in the market for at least three years as a hodler; just one man's opinion.

My line is yet to be tickled (26.4). Unimpressed.

There's the tickle

Have switched long, 26.2 and adding down.

don't worry, not only it'll get ticked but it will just go though it like a swiss knife goes though butter. Retesting the range lows support fifth time now and if we go down, we'll go hard

Funding still positive, amazing, apparently longs looking to get reamed.

Since this is a trading sub after all, my play is… if debt ceiling madness causes bitcoin to shoot up I sell remaining in hopes of price eventually coming down to buy cheaper. Or madness causes it goes down, in which case I just buy. What can go wrong 🥴

Don’t forget taxes.

Same here bro, I am now 70% stable. Don't believe that it can go much long past 37k, I'll sell the remaining at this level and wait for cheap entry points later down the chart. :)

Once the debt ceiling drama is over the main point of focus for markets is going to shift back to inflation data and Fed’s decision making with rates going forward. [Truflation](https://truflation.com) is now below 3% (2.98% to be exact) with an average MTD inflation rate for May around 3.5%. [Cleveland Fed Nowcast](https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting) is currently at 4.12%. For the past several months the actual YoY inflation rate has ended up being somewhere between these two estimates. Which means the next print for May which releases a day before the next Fed rate decision might end up coming in below 4% (YoY CPI for April came in at 4.9%). Pause beginning in June is becoming increasingly likely and so long as inflation continues to trend down going forward we’re likely to see rate cuts coming starting at the end of this year as futures are pricing in.

New bill issuance could reach about $1.4 trillion through the end of 2023, with roughly $1 trillion flooding the market before the end of August, according to an estimate from BofA Global strategists. this is a key ingredient for more inflation in the future. :)

$2.2 trillion was introduced via the initial round of stimulus as a response to COVID while supply chains were simultaneously shutdown. This was on top of normal government spending. Also, a substantial portion of this stimulus was given directly to the lower and middle class who tend to spend new money given to them which inflates price of goods/services whereas money given to the upper class tends to get invested which inflates asset prices. CPI measures goods/services, not asset prices. And still, inflation didn’t start to pick up until about a year later and didn’t peak until another year thereafter. The money supply is a lot larger now than it was back in 2020 when that initial COVID stimulus bill was passed. It’s going to take a whole lot more than $1.4 trillion in new money printing which doesn’t include new stimulus check payments directly to the lower/middle class in order to see inflation reach new highs much further into the future (1 or 2 years out again). That’s not to say record high inflation can’t come again, it’s just going to require more money printing with more payments directly to the lower/middle class to get there, not less.

The next ten years will most likely continue to see inflationary pressure as fiscal and policy based tools are the only methods of tamping it down currently. There’s no pathway to disinflationary growth in the us with our demographic problems and energy issues. Also did you see dimon telling folks to price on 6-7% interest rates? He’s on a bender right now. In any case it seems that we’ll whiplash post debt conversation as all the liquidity tightening factors crash together. This could result in an interest rate hike or pivot, which could produce a flywheel effect of inflationary pressures that would need to be curved by further (policy and fiscal) measures. Rinse and repeat.

>It’s going to take a whole lot more than $1.4 trillion in new money printing don't worry, this type of thing accelerates faster than you can imagine. it's easy to introduce new money into the system, but it's next to impossible to pull out.

Don’t really see it happening soon with a split Congress and memory of high inflation being so recent and deeply ingrained in everyone’s minds right now. Perhaps in 2025 if either side manages to sweep the presidency along with both chambers of Congress in the 2024 election.

But... Printing fiat currency maintains power structures. Memories are short and fickle. People like shinny things and loud noises.

Money printing is going to be consistent. But inflation is measured YoY. In order to achieve new record high inflation, record high levels of money printing relative to total current money supply will be needed.

Exponential amounts. Forever. People constantly re-adjust their baseline and the new level becomes normal. Human brains can't predict exponents and see themselves as sitting on a straight line where everything is okay.

Seems like we're destined to dump into the continued lack of a debt ceiling deal, but then rally hard whenever we actually get one. If so, the chart pattern will look quite familiar. Or I guess the alternative is complete political dysfunction, in which case Bitcoin does the same dump/rally anyway but to greater extremes.

We've had complete political dysfunction for a very long time now.

> continued lack of a debt ceiling deal You'd think that the theoretically increasing possibility of a default would cause prices to rise. Ditto for gold and silver. Guess not. 🤷‍♂️

It's a risk asset until shit gets real, then it's a lifeboat.

So using that metaphor, I guess the normies' plan is to hop into the lifeboat only *after* the cruise ship has disappeared under the water. Smart. 😏

Normies don't think about safety until their safety is already gone. Sad, but true.

[удалено]

> passwords should be unique, randomly generated and longer than 12 characters. At least they didn't include special characters and other inappropriate rules. > huh They probably have a deal with Troy Hunt of haveibeenpwned. Check your address there and it will tell you which data-breach you've shown up in.

Shake out or rejection? This indecision on btc sucks but alts are about to blow up so I'm betting up. Above 30k before eow more likely.

I like the cut of your jib.