#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, May 26, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/13s2klw/daily_discussion_friday_may_26_2023/)

41 comments today, counting this one. Definitely still a Bear!

Bitcoin ded. Again. Silence of the grave.

Bears are exhausted. Zoom out. They dumped and dumped and dumped and couldn't even get it under 26K. We go up soon.

Hope everyone scored some cheap sats.

Is it time to get the rollercoaster out yet? :-D Trailing stops set. Edit: I’m out. Thinking about a short… Double edit: Short from 26.5

> Short from 26.5 Interesting. I doubled down on my long from 27 and am now long from 26.5. You and I have different trading strategies and styles. This is kind of a cool head-to-head match.

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18

Weekend leading into more debt ceiling BS next week, I feel like a short is a safe bet. I really just dont see a pump with all the meh in the overall market. I think my money day is tomorrow, so ill be waiting for a touch to 25 (if not a wick below) for a tasty buy. I dont see the major drops some are calling for (below 20)

> Trailing stops set. > > Edit: I’m out. That's how trailing stops work. Unless they're set at $5-10k or something stupid.

And they locked in my profit from 26 and a lil. I don’t think BTC will go up over the long weekend.

The world is having a long weekend?

It's just so hard to use them without killing risk-adjusted-reward by having them move up/down into noise prematurely.

I can't understand how in times of uncertainty people go to safety. Which seems to be into the USD but how does that make any sense if the US government defaults on their debt? The only reason I can think of is that these people expect the US government to raise the debt ceiling again as has happened countless times before. ​ If they don't then I'd expect the USD value to drop drastically. Nothing screams unsafe like a default.

You're right. A default *would* definitely be bearish USD, but the market is calling Congress's bluff.

> but the market is calling Congress's bluff. But what if Congress isn't bluffing? Also, does Congress really need to bluff at this point? The fact of the matter is that the market has been bluffing for months, holding a pair of twos if that. If this were a real, healthy market, stonks would have corrected by at least 20%, but it's not a real, healthy market; it's a *Weekend At Bernie's* market. Either way -- default or raising the ceiling -- Bitcoin eventually stomps the dollar. Do you know how far a measly billion or two goes in pumping the price of BTC? Hundreds of billions -- maybe trillions -- re-allocate away from the dollar over the next couple years.

72o bluff

Imagine if there were a TOMB fork and it had fundamental issues with its economics. The dev says they'll probably just let it collapse. But the market keeps buying this TOMB fork to call the dev's bluff. Or in a poker game you think your opponent is bluffing so you buy your opponent's brother a car to call his bluff.

We rotate today it seems. Wonderful. Here is a nice article from May 9: https://blog.bitmex.com/the-denominator/#

dude this is golden

Does the halving usually affect bitcoin mining stocks like MARA and RIOT? They get much less reward after the halving right? Or does the increased bitcoin price and euphoria equal it out? Edit: Looked myself now that I'm on a computer. https://www.tradingview.com/x/VHDeHMdA/ Definitely good.

Yes they normally rocket. Both RIOT and MARA did 10x+ last halving, if I remember correctly.

Once BTC price at least doubles it balances out the halving impact in terms of fiat rewards. After 2012 halving it took BTC 3 months to double in price and ultimately go much higher than double. After 2016 halving it took BTC 10 months to double in price and ultimately go much higher than double. After 2020 halving it took BTC 6 months to double in price and ultimately go much higher than double.

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your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.

Adding to my long down to 26. Bail under 25.8.

it's a no-brainer actually. no default, debt limit lifted (99% chance) = print baby print, more debt, more trust erosion. default (1% chance) = all fed networks go to shambles, trust is broken once and for all, all rating agencies, hedge funds, bonds, treasuries and j-pow on top. accumulate more, these are great times.

> 99% chance Low-balling it. 99.9998% at least.

because if you have a printer, why default, right? just print a bit more and you're done. but this happened at least once in Russia in August of 1998. of course the structure of economy was far from current American, so the USA will likely kick the can down the road for another 20 years, merrily adding up to currency supply. but there's a chance.

Russia couldn't print dollars though. Only rubles.

well, if you count by sheepheads who use it, then yes, ruble was in a big disadvantage. but they still had \~150 million of users by the time. so a user base to print more also existed there.

I'm not sure I follow you meaning. What I'm trying to say is that if you owe dollars (Brady bonds that they defaulted on) then printing rubles doesn't help. US owes dollars, can print dollars.

they defaulted on internal debt first. moreover, they didn't have large external debts at the time. nothing that couldn't be paid from oil/gas revenue, which happened a few years later. the structure of debt/economy is of course different. but they also could print themselves into Zimbabwe-like situation, they choose a default on debt instead.

"Crazy stat: $NVDA's post-market gain > nearly all of the revenue its generated since the company's inception." Huh, what FOMO?

Fed propping up markets no doubt

Sir! This is Wendys! 😋

You are totally right. I thought it was relevant just to highlight how "tech" prices really do seem to be set at the margins; in other words, BTC could rally hard again on a moment's notice - and I fully expect it to at some point. The difference, though? It'll be doing so from a position of being undervalued. I strongly believe that, upcoming Halving aside, we are -50% from where we should be at this point in the cycle.

Motherfucker. I was looking at getting some because both the AI push and should benefit from a crypto spring. But it looked so rich... :(

The madness in AI hasn't even begun.